The Federal Reserve’s new industrial production data showed that the August monthly sequential real manufacturing production fall-off (0.43 percent), the worst since wintry January, 2014’s (1.13 percent), plunged American factories back into its latest technical recession. Revisions going back to April were all negative, and major downward net automotive revisions helped drag the durable goods super-sector back into technical recession territory, too – where it joined non-durables.
As a result, America’s after-inflation manufacturing production is now 4.45 percent below the level it hit when the last recession began more than eight years ago. That is, the manufacturing slump triggered by the Great Recession still hasn’t ended.
Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on August industrial production:
>Inflation-adjusted manufacturing output in August fell by 0.43 percent month-to-month – the worst such decrease since wintry January, 2014 (1.13 percent), and enough to bring domestic industry back into its latest technical recession.
>After rebounding during early in the current U.S. economic recovery, real manufacturing output is now down on net since November, 2014 (by 0.53 percent).
>Aggravating manufacturing’s troubles were negative monthly output revisions going back to April.
>July’s previously reported monthly increase of 0.55 percent – which would have been the best such improvement since last July’s 0.68 percent – is now pegged at 0.39 percent.
>The June after-inflation manufacturing production rise, already downgraded, was cut from 0.32 percent to 0.24 percent. May’s upwardly revised real output decline of 0.21 percent is now judged to be a 0.23 percent decrease. And April’s upwardly revised 0.11 percent sequential production increase was revised down to 0.09 percent on month.
>The automotive revisions were especially large – and negative on net.
>The constant dollar July monthly output increase for vehicles and parts combined was cut nearly in half – from1.91 percent to 1.01 percent.
>Auto parts production for the month was actually upgrade significantly – from 2.30 percent real sequential growth to 3.57 percent.
>But a vehicles production gain of 1.76 percent in real terms is now estimated as a 0.94 percent decrease from June’s level.
>Nonetheless, July total automotive inflation-adjusted production and parts output would still have been record levels as of last month, and combined vehicles and parts production hit a new after-inflation all-time high in August.
>Year-on-year real output in manufacturing overall fell by 0.24 percent in August – its first such decline since last December. Between August, 2014 and August, 2015, inflation-adjusted manufacturing production rose by 1.15 percent.
>Manufacturing’s constant-dollar June and July output increases were also downgraded, though both remained improvements.
>August’s on-month manufacturing downturn and the negative revisions mean that the sector’s overall output is now 4.45 percent below its levels when the last recession officially began – more than eight years ago, in December, 2007. That is, by this measure, the Great Recession has still not ended for domestic manufacturing.
>In the durable goods super-sector, which accounts for more than half of domestic manufacturing, real production shrank sequentially by 0.61 percent. That’s the biggest such decrease since March’s 0.73 percent.
>July’s monthly durable goods production increase was downgraded from 0.57 percent to 0.43 percent. The upgraded June advance of 0.73 percent was increased again. But May’s upgraded 0.47 percent inflation-adjusted monthly production dip was downgraded back to a 0.49 percent decrease.
>Durable goods’ yearly real production dipped by 0.12 percent in August. Between the previous Augusts, it inched up by 0.51 percent.
>July’s previously reported annual durables production gain of 0.57 percent was cut in half – to 0.28 percent. But June’s downgraded 0.32 percent was doubled – to 0.64 percent.
>Real durable goods production is now up only 0.85 percent since its pre-recession peak at the end of 2007.
>The non-durable goods super-sector remained in technical recession, in part because its inflation-adjusted output slipped by 0.22 percent sequentially in August. Real output is now down on net since March, 2015.
>July’s monthly real non-durables output gain was downwardly revised from 0.45 percent to 0.34 percent. The downgraded June figure of 0.32 percent is now judged to have been a 0.47 percent drop.
>Non-durable goods’ real output fell annually in August by 0.40 percent. From August, 2014 to August, 2015, this production increased by 1.92 percent.
>July’s previously reported inflation-adjusted annual output increase of 0.21 percent is now pegged at a 0.01 percent decline, and June’s downgraded 0.32 percent advance was cut again, to 0.21 percent.
>Since its pre-recession peak, in July, 2007, real output of non-durable goods is now down 10.73 percent.