The Federal Reserve’s new industrial production data showed that constant-dollar manufacturing output increased by 0.21 percent sequentially in September, but that the sector remained in a technical recession. The downturn extended to both the durable goods and the non-durable goods super-sectors. Total real manufacturing production is still down 0.10 percent since November, 2014.
Mixed revisions included a downgrade (to -0.52 percent) for an August drop-off that was already the worst since wintry January, 2014’s (1.13 percent). After inflation, total manufacturing output is now down 4.29 percent from its level at the end of 2007, when the Great Recession began. In other words, the manufacturing decline triggered by that recession never ended.
Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on September industrial production:
>Inflation-adjusted manufacturing output in September rose by 0.21 percent on month but the increase wasn’t enough to end the sector’s technical recession.
>Constant-dollar manufacturing production is 0.10 percent lower than the levels it hit in November, 2014.
>Both the durable goods and non-durables super-sectors remained in recession, too. The former’s real output is now down 0.69 percent since November, 2014. The latter’s is off by 0.14 percent since August, 2015.
>Overall manufacturing revisions were mixed. Especially important: August’s 0.43 percent sequential inflation-adjusted decrease – the biggest since wintry January, 2014’s 1.13 percent – was downgraded to a 0.52 percent drop-off.
>Year-on-year, total manufacturing output inched up by 0.12 percent in September in real terms, but August’s 0.24 percent annual decline is now pegged at a 0.28 percent decrease. Between September, 2014 and September, 2015, after-inflation manufacturing production rose by 0.76 percent.
>In toto, constant-dollar manufacturing output is now 4.29 percent lower than at the end of 2007 – when the Great Recession began. In other words, despite a strong output comeback early in the current economic recovery, the post-2007 manufacturing slump still hasn’t ended.
>In durable goods, which accounts for more than half of domestic manufacturing, real production dipped month-on-month by 0.03 percent – enough to continue its own technical recession. But revisions were positive.
>Durable goods’ yearly real production increased by 0.26 percent in September – an improvement ove the fractional gain recorded between the two previous Septembers. The August annual increase, however, was reduced from a 0.12 percent improvement to one that was fractional.
>Real durable goods production is now up only 0.94 percent since its pre-recession peak at the end of 2007.
>In the also slumping non-durable goods super-sector, growth stayed on a roller-coaster in September. Sequential real output climbed by 0.50 percent on month – its best such showing since the 0.74 gain in January. But August’s 0.22 percent monthly decrease was revised down to 0.52 percent – the worst such performance since April’s 0.57 percent decline.
>Non-durable goods’ real output fell annually in September by 0.06 percent, and August’s 0.40 percent yearly drop is now pegged at a 0.63 percent decrease. From September, 2014 to September, 2015, real non-durables output increased by 1.63 percent.
>Since its pre-recession peak, in July, 2007, real output of non-durable goods is now down 10.49 percent.