New Federal Reserve data showed that constant-dollar manufacturing output dipped by 0.03 percent sequentially in November – which enabled the sector to (barely) stay out of technical recession (two or more quarters of cumulative constant-dollar production decline). Industry’s real production is now up by 0.09 percent since November, 2014.
Yet both manufacturing super-sectors – durable and non-durable goods – remained in their own downturns. The former’s remains off by 0.41 percent since November, 2014, and the latter’s by 0.07 percent since August, 2015. Manufacturing’s sequential decline was led in part by a 2.28 percent vehicles-led decrease in after-inflation automotive production – the first fall-off since May. Overall, moreover, manufacturing’s real output remains 4.11 percent below its pre-recession peak – nearly nine years ago.
Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on November industrial production:
>Inflation-adjusted manufacturing slipped in November by 0.03 percent month-on-month, a small enough decline to enable industry to stay out of the technical recession it exited in October.
>Thanks to this latest bump up, and a slightly positive revision for October (from 0.23 percent real growth to 0.33 percent), after-inflation manufacturing output is now 0.09 percent higher than in November, 2014.
>At the same time, both the durable and non-durable goods super-sectors of manufacturing remained in their own technical recessions – with real output down cumulatively for more than two straight quarters.
>Constant dollar durable goods output fell by 0.28 percent sequentially in November – pushing this indicator to 0.41 percent below its level in November, 2014.
>Constant dollar non-durables output rose by 0.27 percent in November, but the super-sector remained 0.07 percent smaller in real terms than it was in August, 2015.
>The durable goods super-sector’s November problems stemmed largely from a 2.28 percent sequential fall-off in inflation-adjusted automotive production.
>This decrease, the first since May, was led by a 3.73 percent decrease in vehicles output. Real parts production was off, too, but only by 1.30 percent.
>November’s manufacturing results show that the sector’s real production is still down by 4.11 percent since the Great Recession began at the end of 2007 – nearly nine years ago.
>Overall manufacturing production advanced by 0.39 percent year-on-year after inflation in November. Between the previous Novembers, it declined by 0.30 percent.
>November real durable goods production fell fractionally year on year. But this performance beat that registered from November, 2014 to November, 2015, when it fell by 1.34 percent.
>In the nearly nine years since the last recession’s late-2007 onset, real durable goods production has risen by 1.22 percent.
>November’s real year-on-year non-durables output dropped 0.29 percent year-on-year. The previous year, it improved by 0.96 percent.
>Since its pre-recession after-inflation production peak, in July, 2007, real production in non-durable goods has shrunk by 10.43 percent.