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(What's Left of) Our Economy wages, inflation-adjusted wages, manufacturing, private sector, real wages, recovery
In one sense, President Trump’s summit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un was well-timed – it’s inevitably distracting attention from the latest set of real wage figures (for May) released this morning by the Labor Department. The big takeaways: On a monthly basis, Americans’ inflation-adjusted hourly pay keeps going nowhere, and in fact, constant dollar wages for both the entire private sector and for manufacturing remained in technical recession. That is, they’re down on net for two straight quarters or more of economic activity.
The new data show that, for the private sector overall, real wages inched up sequentially by 0.09 percent in May after flat-lining in April. For manufacturing workers, they fell for the second straight month, with April’s 0.09 percent dip followed by a 0.19 percent drop in May.
As a result, on an annual basis, after-inflation private sector wages are unchanged, and such pay in manufacturing is off by 1.20 percent. Between the previous Mays, real wages in the private sector rose by 0.66 percent, and in manufacturing by 0.28 percent.
The new May statistics reveal that the private sector has been enduring a real wage recession since last June, as constant dollar hourly pay has declined by a cumulative 0.09 percent since then. As for manufacturing, its real wage recession dragged into its 28th straight month, with price-adjusted hourly wages down by 0.28 percent since January, 2016.
Just as worrisome, real wages in manufacturing are nearing the point of complete stagnation during the current economic recovery. Since mid-2009, they’ve advanced only by a barely perceptible 0.19 percent. The private sector’s performance during this period is only decent by comparison: It’s after-inflation hourly pay has risen by 4.27 percent during this nearly nine-year expansion.
RealityChek 
No expert here, but isn’t this a 4-decade problem?
Unemployment appears at record lows.
Our labor markets are massively impacted by between 30 and 45 million illegal immigrants working in service and blue collar jobs. (The 12 million figure is a joke. In 1986 the government estimated 1 million illegals, 3.6 million signed up for Amnesty.)
Yes it is a long-term problem and I’ve written and tweeted often on how, for decades, the labor realistically available to American companies hasn’t been confined to legal U.S. residents. Hopefully, Trump will put into effect still more of the trade and immigration policies needed to eliminate or at least significantly reduce this portion of the slack in “U.S.” labor markets. If he doesn’t, it’s hard to envision real wages rising acceptably no matter how fast the economy grows or how low conventionally measured unemployment sinks. And one other problem Trump seems bound to face to an extent that his predecessors didn’t: the ever accelerating move of the robots and artificial intelligence into the workplace, which is likely to put even more downward pressure on wages.
Bingo. Living out West, I can tell you countless stories of surplus service and manual labor pool. I had a drink at the local McDonald’s yesterday, and the Managers wete holding their meeting in Spanish. The MSM continually refers to illegal immigrants picking lettuce, which is si ridiculous. A month ago I read that fast food is the number one trade for these individuals.
Parenting also effects this. Many upper middle income families don’t require their children to work. The fast food indystry was often a first job.
In my area, the union wage for a journeyman carpenter is $90 an hour (minimum), and the carpenter makes $45 an hour. In my local barrio I can hire someone with 80% of the skills for between $15 – 25 per hour.
Then in hi tech, an abundant supply of H1B Visa workers are defacto indentured servants. Dr. Norman Matloff is an expert in this area, and says it is defacto age discrimination.