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Even though today’s March U.S. jobs figures overall improved dramatically on their February counterparts, the employment story in domestic manufacturing remained remarkably similar: Generally speaking the results were dismal. But the internals still don’t reveal any connection with President Trump’s tariff-heavy trade policies.

Let’s start by reviewing the manufacturing-wide March jobs performance. Industry’s payrolls dropped by 6,000 month-to-month – their first such decrease since July, 2017’s 3,000 dip. At least as bad, the weak 4,000 sequential jobs gain initially reported for February was revised down to 1,000.

As a result, March’s 209,000 year-on-year employment increase in manufacturing was the sector’s worst annual advance since February, 2018’s 206,000 net drop.

But the tariff-test effect can only be seen upon examining the results for the manufacturing sectors most heavily affected. The best evidence comes in metals-using industries. That’s partly because Mr. Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs marked their first birthday in March and now we have data (though still preliminary) for eleven months of their first year in effect. But it’s also because the jobs data so precisely tracks trends in those sectors.

The first table below presents the results since last April – the first full month during which the tariffs were imposed – for leading metals-using sector. As has been the case consistently during the metals tariffs era, the latest figures show that most of the metals-using industries (three out of five) have out-hired the manufacturing as a whole (non-electrical machinery, fabricated metals products, and aerospace through February) and two (non-electrical machinery and aerospace through March) have created jobs at a faster pace even than the entire private sector.

The big automotive sector, of course, is a noteworthy laggard on both scores, and suffered an especially bad March. Appliances are dealing with not only metals tariffs, but separate levies on household washing machines. But in terms of momentum, fabricated metals products (whose payrolls exceed automotive’s) have held their own, and non-electrical machinery (which also employs more than motor vehicles and parts makers) has actually picked up the pace.

So because the industries most seriously affected by metals tariffs have generated such disparate employment results, blaming the metals tariffs for whatever problems they’ve been displaying seems unjustified. Clearly, their performance is explained by many other, including many other more important, factors.

                                                     Old thru Feb       New thru Feb       Thru March

entire private sector:                  +1.64 percent      +1.64 percent       +1.78 percent

overall manufacturing:              +1.58 percent      +1.53 percent       +1.48 percent

durable goods:                           +2.04 percent      +1.94 percent      +1.85 percent

fabricated metals products:       +1.60 percent      +1.60 percent      +1.60 percent

non-electrical machinery:         +2.82 percent      +2.71 percent       +2.76 percent

automotive vehicles & parts:   +1.11 percent       +1.04 percent       +0.40 percent

household appliances:               not available        -3.63 percent        not available

aerospace products & parts:      not available      +6.40 percent         not available

The same range of employment results emerges from the manufacturing sectors that seem to be most seriously impacted by the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from China. But much less confidence should be placed in these figures for three reasons. The first levies imposed have only been in place since last July. The match-ups between the products on that first tariff list and the categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor statistics are much less exact. And statistics for many of these categories are available only through February.

Nonetheless, here’s the best I could come up with. And this month, I’ve added overall private sector data, plus two more items I could identify from that first tariff list, to provide one more point of comparison.

                                                             Old July-Feb   New July-Feb   July-March

entire private sector                           +1.10 percent   +1.10 percent   +1.24 percent

overall manufacturing                       +1.00 percent   +0.94 percent   +0.90 percent

aircraft engines and engine parts:      not available    +0.93 percent    not available

industrial heating equipment:            not available    +2.35 percent    not available

oil and gas drilling platform parts:    not available    +5.97 percent    not available

farm machinery and equipment:        not available    +1.83 percent   not available

ball bearings:                                     not available    +1.54 percent   not available

med/surgical/personal aid devices:   not available    +1.34 percent   not available

X-ray & electro-medical equip:        not available    +2.91 percent   not available 

If anything, when it comes to employment, the China-affected sectors have outperformed the rest of manufacturing and the overall private sector to an even greater extent than the metals-using sectors. (Interestingly, moreover, all these China-affected sectors are heavy metals users as well – so like appliances, they’re impacted by two sets of tariffs.)

So it’s starting to look like President Trump, and the economy as a whole, are looking at diminishing domestic manufacturing jobs mojo. But so far, his trade policy doesn’t belong on the list of culprits.

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