(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Fading Momentum in U.S. Manufacturing Growth?

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aerospace, aircraft, aircraft parts, apparel, appliances, automotive, dollar, electrical components, electrical equipment, exchange rates, exports, Federal Reserve, housing, inflation, machinery, manufacturing, medical supplies, nonmetallic mineral products, petroleum and coal products, pharmaceuticals, printing, semiconductors, wood products, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The big story in the new Federal Reserves manufacturing production figures that were released Wednesday (taking the story through October) was in the revisions. And I don’t mean the revisions for individual industries, which previous Fed reports has shown to be pretty remarkable (to put it diplomatically). It was in the downgrades for the total output of U.S.-based industry adjusted for inflation, which revealed a considerably weaker performance than first estimated.

Domestic industry just barely stayed in growth mode in October, expanding real production by 0.15 percent. But weighing more heavily on the sector’s recent performance, revisions for every month since July were negative.

September’s initially reported price-adjusted gain of 0.43 percent is now estimated to have been 0.24 percent. August’s after-inflation increase – first upgraded from 0.09 percent to 0.38 percent was downgraded to 0.10 percent. July’s initially reported constant dollar advance of 0.72 percent has now been downgraded three straight times – to 0.62 percent, 0,60 percent, and 0.53 percent. And June’s initially reported inflation-adjusted drop of 0.54 percent, after having been revised up to a dip of 0.45 percent, was downgraded three straight times, too – to 0.56 percent, 0.58 percent, and 0.59 percent.

Consequently, U.S.-based manufacturing’s real production increase since February, 2020 – just before the arrival of the CCP Virus sparked assorted mandated and voluntary behavioral curbs and a shot but deep economic downturn – now stands at just 3.76 percent, versus the 4.19 percent improvement calculable last month.

Among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors tracked by the Fed, the biggest October winners in terms of after-inflation output were:

>the automotive sector, whose volatility has greatly influenced manufacturing’s
overall growth performance throughout the pandemic era. Price-adjusted production of motor vehicles and parts climbed by 2.05 percent on month in October, and revisions were mixed. September’s initially reported increase of one percent was revised down to one of 0.44 percent. August’s initially reported fall-off of -1.44 percent was downgraded to one of 1.48 percent before being revised back up one of 1.07 percent. July’s initially reported jump of 6.60 percent was downgraded to an increase of just 3.24 percent, but then revised up again to 3.57 percent and 3.84 percent. (still the best such performance since September, 2021’s 10.34 percent burst). And June’s initially reported 1.49 percent decrease was upgrade to a decline of 1.27 percent before being downgraded to a loss of 1.31 percent and settling in at a retreat of 1.84 percent

All the same, these gyrations left the automotive industry 3.18 percent larger in real terms since immediately pre-pandemic February, 2020, versus the 0.89 percent increase calculable last month;

>electrical equipment, appliance, and components, where a 1.92 percent increase
in real output in October was its best such performance since February’s 2.29 percent rise. Revisions, however, were slightly negative. September’s initially reported 0.93 percent gain was downgraded to one of 0.63 percent. August’s initially reported 1.01 percent decrease was revised up to one of 0.51 percent before being revised down again to inflation-adjusted growth of 0.81 percent. July’s initially reported -1.41 percent contraction in price-adjusted output has been steadily downgraded to one of 1.44 percent, 1.55 percent, and finally 1.65 percent. And June’s initially reported real growth improvement of 1.34 percent was revised up twice – to 1.42 percent to 1.45 percent, and then held steady before being revised down to 1.37 percent.

After-inflation production in this diverse sector is now 7.07 percent above February, 2020 levels versus the 5.90 percent calculable last month;

>aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, which generated a 1.90 percent sequential inflation-adjusted output increase in October, and registered mixed revisions. September’s initially reported increase of 0.56 percent is now judged to have been a dip of 0.28 percent, and August’s initially reported 2.08 percent rise has been downgraded first to 1.19 percent and now 0.48 percent. But July’s initially reported 1.54 percent constant dollar output increase has been upgraded three times – to 1.85 percent, 2.11 percent, and 2.12 percent. And after a downward revision from a 0.09 percent rise to a 0.14 percent fall, June’s results were upgraded to increases of 0.15 percent, 0.37 percent, and 0.53 percent.

These upgrades were enough to push real aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment’s post-February, 2020 price adjusted growth to 26.29 percent, versus the 24.20 percent calculable last month;

>printing and related support activities, a hard-hit industry recently that nonetheless produced 1.90 percent more in October when accounting for inflation than in September – its best such result since e February’s 3.13 percent surge. Yet revisions spoiled the picture to some extent. September’s initially reported decrease of 1.67 percent was downgraded to one of 1.93 percent – its worst monthly shrinkage since January’s 2.09 percent. But August’s initially reported 0.27 percent contraction was significantly upgraded to a gain of 0.59 percent and then to 0.87 percent. July’s results have been revised up from a decrease of 1.67 percent to one of 1.60 percent to one of 1.50 percent to one of 1.27 percent. And June’s estimates have been all over the place – from an initially reported 1.68 percent advance to one of 0.51 percent to a 0.40 percent decline back to a 0.41 rise and then to a 1.04 percent fall.

All told, real output in this sector closed to within 9.37 percent of its levels just before the CCP Virus struck from the 11.81 percent calculable last month;

>apparel and leather goods, which continued a generally good recent run by boosting real output by 1.04 percent on month in October Revisions were positive on net –and in one instance, stunningly so. September’s initially reported 1.56 percent inflation-adjusted production increase was upgraded significantly to 2.29 percent. August’s initially reported -0.53 slip was upgraded all the way up to a 1.85 percent increase and then back down to a 2.81 deterioration. July’s initially reported 1.60 percent advance was revised down to one of 1.46 percent, then back up to one of 1.66 percent, then left unchanged, and then downgraded to a 1.52 percent increase. And June’s initially reported 1.68 pecent increase was downgraded to a 0.51 percent decline, then revised up to a dip of just 0.40 percent, then downgraded to a decrease of 1.04 percent, and then revised all the way back to a 5.84 percent pop – these companies’ best such performance since the 8.04 percent jump in August, 2020, during the economic recovery from the first pandemic wave.

Apparel and leather goods production is now up 5.82 percent in real terms since immediately pre-pandemic February, 2020, versus the 5.39 percent calculable last month; and

>machinery, which RealityChek regulars know is a major barometer of the health of the entire economy, since its products are used so widely by nearly all goods and industries alike. Its constant dollar production climbed by one percent month-to-month in October, but revisions were negative on net. September’s initially reported 0.32 output gain was upgraded nicely to one of 1.41 percent. But August’s initially reported advance of 0.99 percent was upped considerably to 2.64 percent before being downgraded to 1.99 percent. July’s initially reported rise of 0.50 percent was revised up to 0.68 percent and 0.78 percent, but then downgraded to 0.57 percent. And June’s initially reported drop of 1.49 percent was narrowed to one of 1.27 percent before being downgraded to 1.75 percent, 1.83 percent, and 1.93 percent.

Still, the machinery sector has now boosted its real growth since February, 2020 to 8.31 percent, versus the 7.23 percent calculable last month.

Among the broadest manufacturing groupings tracked by the Fed, the biggest inflation-adjusted output losers were:

>wood products, whose fortunes seem to stem from the woes of a housing sector suffering from the central bank’s inflation-fighting interest rate hikes. In real terms, it contracted by 2.54 percent in October – its worst such performance since sinking 3.22 percent in February, 2021. And revisions were negative on balance. September’s initially reported 0.44 percent loss is now judge to have been one of 2.14 percent. August’s initially reported 1.70 percent decrease was revised down to one of 2.36 percent before being upgraded to one of 2.09 percent. July’s initially reported advance of 0.72 percent was turned into a decreases of 0.03 percent, 0.09 percent, and -0.65 over the next three months. And June’s initially reported increase of 0.73 percent was downgraded to 0.42 percent, then to a decrease of 0.62 percent before being revised up to a retreat of just 0.34 percent.

These net setbacks mean that wood products’ real output since the pandemic arrived is now down by 2.67 percent. As of last month, it was up by 1.43 percent;

>nonmetallic mineral products, whose price-adjusted output fell by 1.19 percent
– its worst such showing since April’s 1.52 percent. Revisions overall, though, were positive. September’s initially reported 1.41 percent growth was upgraded to 2.13 percent – the sector’s best such performance since February’s 4.39 percent surge. August’s initially reported vised 0.90 percent decrease was revised up to a 0.22 percent loss and then to a 0.14 percent expansion. July’s initially reported 0.52 percent increase was downgraded to a 0.09 dip, then slightly upgraded to a fractional decline, and to a 0.04 percent decrease. And June’s initially reported 1.07 percent decrease was revised up to gains of 0.48 percent and 0.46 percent, respectively, down to a fractional decrease, and back up to a 0.37 percent increase.

But nonmetalllic mineral products has now expanded its post-CCP Virus arrival real production by just 1.09 percent, versus the 1.48 percent calculable last month; and

>petroleum and coal products, where constant dollar was depressed sequentially by 1.86 percent in October and revisions were mixed. September’s initially reported 1.13 percent rise was upgraded to one of 1.68 percent. August’s initially reported jump of 3.54 percent was revised even higher to 4.13 percent (the strongest since March, 2021’s post-winter storm 11.49 percent) and then back down to 2.77 percent (still the best since that March). July’s initially reported 0.94 percent decrease was upgraded to narrower losses of 0.25 to and 0.23 percent to an uptick of 0.05 percent. June’s initiallyreported 1.92 percent drop was revised down to one of 2.80 percent, to a no-change finding, to a smaller drop of 2.58 percent – still the worst such performance since January’s 2.96 percent retreat.

These results pushed real output by petroleum and coal products businesses 1.14 percent above their February, 2020 levels, lower than the 3.20 pecent calculable last month.

The semiconductor industry, whose supply chain problems have so influenced the fortunes of manufacturing and the entire U.S. and global economies, saw inflation-adjusted production decline by 1.37 percent on a monthly basis in October, and revisions were strongly negative. September’s initially reported after-inflation production gain of 0.45 percent has turned into a 1.07 percent drop. August’s initially reported 0.57 percent decline was slightly upgraded to one of 0.39 percent but now stands as a 1.47 percent retreat (the biggest since April’s 3.14 percent). July’s initially reported 1.16 percent increase has been revised down to a gain of 0.77 percent, and then to losses of 0.02 percent and 0.40 percent. June’s initially reported results were first significantly revised up from a rise of 0.18 percent to 2.09 percent, but have since been downgraded to 0.88 percent to 0.86 percent to 0.80 percent.

In inflation-adjusted terms, semiconductor production is now up by only 12.16 percent since the pandemic’s arrival in force state-side, way down from the 17.29 percent increase calculable last month.

For two manufacturing groupings of special interest during the pandemic era, October brought good growth results. Indeed, in aircraft and parts, real output advanced by 2.51 percent on month – the best such performance since April’s 3.01 percet. Revisions, however, were somewhat negative. September’s initially reported 0.59 percent rise was downgraded to one of a mere 0.05 percent. August’s initially reported 3.11 percent improvement has been revised down twice – to 1.69 percent and 1.48 percent. July’s initially reported 1.02 percent growth was upgraded twice – to 1.52 percent and 1.90 percent – before falling back to 1.85 percent. But after a downgrade from an initially reported 0.26 percent increase to one of 0.18 percent, June’s results have received upward revisions to 0.24 percent, 0.56 percent, and 0.74 percent.

Nonetheless, aircraft and parts’ price-adjusted output is now 34.14 percent greater during the pandemic era versus the 31.18 percent calculable last month.

Pharmaceutical and medicines companies’ (including vaccine producers’) constant dollar production edged up just 0.20 percent in October, and revisions on balance were negative. September’s initially reported 0.64 increase was downgraded to 0.55 percent. August’s initially reported 1.62 percent growth was upgraded to 1.81 percent and then slightly reduced to 1.80 percent. July’s initially reported 0.29 increase was revised up to 0.30 percent, but then downgraded to losses of 0.55 percent and 0.54 percent. June’s initiallay reported 0.39 rise went unchanged before falling to 0.32 percent, and then advancing to 0.43 percent and 0.44 percent.

After these moves, real output of pharmaceuticals and medicines was 16.71 percent higher than since the February, 2020 onset of the U.S. pandemic, versus the 16.56 percent calculable last month.

Finally, medical equipment and supplies firms raised their production in after-inflation terms by 0.32 percent in October, but revisions were significantly negative. September’s initially reported 1.33 percent drop was revised down to one of 1.43 percent – the worst such performance since the 15.08 percent nosedive of peak pandemic-y April, 2020. August’s initially reported rise of three percent was upgraded to 4.40 percent but then revised dow to 2.92 percent – the best such perfomance since January.

These revisions dragged inflation-adjusted medical equipment and supplies output down to 15.75 percent over its level since February, 2020, versus the 17.95 percent increase calculable last month.

As usual, during these last CCP Virus-roiled years, the outlook for domestic manufacturing seems to be subject to numerous crosswinds. The headwinds include continued tightening of credit conditions by the Fed as it tries to reduce inflation by slowing the economy; numerous predictions of a recession next year (see, e.g., here); economic weakness in major foreign markets to which domestic industry sells; and a still strong dollar (which harms the price competitiveness of U.S.-made goods the world over).

The tailwinds include indications of American economic growth that’s actually strengthening; the possibility that the Fed will at least slow the pace of its rate hikes even before it’s sure that inflation is cooling (precisely to avoid a recession, or a deep recession); a loosening of the supply chain snags that appeared once the global recovery from the first CCP Virus wave began; and amped up federal support for domestic semiconductor manufacturing and the continuing (and hopefully quickening) roll-out of projects funded by the 2021 infrastructure bill.

So far, as I keep observing, the nation’s manufacturers have met their challenges admirably.  But those downward revisions have me wondering whether This Time It’s Different – at least for the next few months. 

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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Output Keeps its Head Above Water

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aircraft, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, CCP Virus, computer and electronics products, coronavirus, COVID 19, electrical components, electrical equipment, fabricated metal products, Federal Reserve, furniture, housing, inflation-adjusted growth, machinery, manufacturing, medical devices, miscellaneous durable goods, petroleum and coal products, pharmaceuticals, real growth, recession, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, transportation equipment, wood products, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Yesterday’s figures from the Federal Reserve showed that U.S.-based manufacturing is still growing – by the barest of margins.

The data, covering August, revealed that domestic industry expanded in inflation-adjusted terms by just 0.09 pecent. Revisions were slightly negative.

As a result, after adjusting for prices, U.S. manufacturing output is 3.49 percent higher than in February, 2020 – just before the CCP Virus and assorted mandated and voluntary behavioral curbs sparked a short but scary downturn and touched off waves of distortion that persist to this day. As of last month’s Fed report, industry’s inflation-adjusted production had risen by 3.69 percent during the pandemic period.

Among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors tracked by the Fed, the biggest August winners were:

>petroleum and coal products, whose 3.54 percent constant dollar monthly output surge was its best since the 11.49 percent jump of March, 2021, when the industry was bouncing back from the damage inflicted by that winter’s Texas blizzards. Revisions were mixed. July’s originally reported after-inflation drop of 0.94 percent upgraded to one of 0.25 percent. June’s preliminary figure, revised up last month from a real decrease of 1.92 to one of 1.50 percent revised back down to a 2.80 percent decline. But May’s initially reported 2.33 percent constant dollar sequential monthly shrinkage of 2.61 pcerent now standing as a fall of 1.30 percent.

Since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, inflation-adjusted production by these companies is up by 1.45 percent, versus the 1.27 decrease calculable last month;

>aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, which rose month-to-month by 2.08 percent in real terms for its best such performance since February’s 2.52 percent. Revisions were slightly positive. June’s initially reported 1.54 percent improvement is now pegged at 1.55 percent. June had advanced from a fractional increase to a 0.14 percent dip to a 0.20 percent increase. But May’s results have deteriorated here, too – from an initially reported 0.85 percent decrease to a 1.25 percent drop.

In price-adjusted terms, this cluster is now 24.07 percent larger than in February, 2020, versus the 21.30 percent calculable last month;

>miscellaneous durable goods, a diverse sector containing the personal protective equipment and other medical gear used to widely to fight the CCP Virus saw inflation-adjusted production grow by 1.71 on month in August, its best such performace since last December’s 1.85 percent. Revisions, however, were negative. July’s initially reported 1.23 percent increase was revised down to one of 0.89 percent. June’s results have been downgraded from an advance of 2.25 percent to one of 0.87 percent to the 0.67 percent reported yesterday. And May’s improvement, first estimated at 1.17 percent, is now just to have been 0.63 percent.

Consequently, real production in miscellaneous durable goods has now increased by 13.92 percent since February, 2020, just before the pandemic’s arrival in force, versus the 13.38 percent calculable last month; and

>computer and electronics products, where constant dollar output climbed by 1.27 sequentially for their best month since May, 2021 (2.44 percent). Revisions were slightly negative, July’s results were downgraded from a decrease of 0.65 percent to one of 0.68 percent. June’s initially reported 0.21 percent was upgraded to a 0.67 percent gain before dropping back to one of 0.46 percent. And the initially reported May monthly rise of 0.50 percent is now recorded as a decrease of 0.11 percent.

After-inflation growth in this broad sector is now reported at 6.11 percent since that last CCP Virus data month of February, 2020 versus the 5.93 percent calculable last month.

Not so coincidentally, August’s two worst manufacturing production losers among the biggest manufacturing sub-sectors were closely related to the nation’s hard-pressed housing sector:

>furniture and related products, which suffered it sixth straight monthly price-adjusted production decrease. Moreover, the 2.13 percent shrinkage was the worst since February, 2021’s 2.77 percent. Moreover, revisions were overall negative. July’s initially reported retreat of 1.57 percent was revised up to one of 0.80. percent. But the June losses have been downgraded from one of 0.55 percent to one of 1.33 percent and then to one of 1.87 percent. And May’s initially reported 0.94 percent increase is now judged to have been a 0.96 percent decrease.

The furniture cluster is now 7.30 percent smaller after accounting for inflation since February, 2020, versus the 5.56 percent calculable last month’

>wood products, whose inflation-adjusted production slip of 1.70 percent was its second month-to-month decrease in a row and its worst since April’s 1.89 percent. Revisions were mixed. July’s initially reported 0.72 percent increase is now pegged as a -0.03 decline. June’s initially reported 0.73 percent rise has been revised down to one of 0.42 percent and yesterday to a 0.62 loss. But May’s results have been upgraded from a 2.64 plunge to a decrease of just 0.28 percent.

Whereas last month’s Fed release showed this sector to be 6.79 percent bigger since just before the pandemic began roiling and distorting the economy, this month’s estimates this increase to have been just 2.67 percent;

>automotive, whose roller-coaster ride continued with real output sinking by 1.44 percent in August. Worse, July’s initially reported 6.60 percent monthly production burst was cut by more than half – to an increase of 3.24 percent. June’s initially reported 1.49 percent decrease was first upgraded to one of 1.27 percent but now stands at 1.31 percent. And May’s initially reported 0.06 percent on month real output dip is now judged to have been a decrease of 1.96 percent.

As of last month’s Fed report, inflation-adjusted vehicle and parts production was recorded as being up by 4.73 percent since February, 2020. Now it’s pegged as being off by 0.20 percent; and

>electrical equipment, appliances (also related to housing), and components, whose inflation-adjusted production contraction (1.01 percent) was its second straight. Revisions, though, were overall positive. July’s initially reported 1.41 percent fall-off is now estimated as one of 1.44 percent., but June’s results have been upgraded a second consecutive time – from an advance of 1.34 percent to one of 1.42 percent to yesterday’s 1.45 percent. And although May remained an output loser, the decrease has been upgraded from an initially reported 1.83 percent to one of 1.68 percent (which was still its worst results since December’s 2.48 percent slump).

All told, though, this cluster’s price-adjusted shrinkage since that last pre-pandemic data month of February, 2020 fell to just 4.53 percent, versus the 4.83 percent fall-off calculable last month; and

>fabricated metal products, another volatile industry. After-inflation production was off by 0.95 percent sequentially in August, after improving by a figure of 1.79 percent that was revised down from an initially reported 2.05 percent but was still the best such result since February’s 2.49 percent jump. Other revisions were mixed, with June’s initially reported decrease of 0.83 percent revised down first to one of 1.40 percent and now to one of 1.59 percent, and May’s initially reported drop of 1.16 percent now pegged at just 0.98 percent.

As of last month’s Fed report, fabricated metals products’ constant dollar output had closed to within 0.14 percent of its immediate pre-CCP virus level. Now it’s off by 1.42 percent.

Better news came from the big and diverse machinery sector, which is a bellwether for both the rest of manufacturing and the rest of the entire economy, since so many industries use its products. It grew in real terms sequentially in August by 0.91 percent – its best such result since April’s 1.97 percent. Revisions were mixed. July’s initially reported 0.50 percent increase is now estimated to have been 0.68 percent. June’s results, first downgraded from a 1.14 percent decrease to one of 2.16 percent were revised back up to one of 1.75 percent. And May’s initially reported drop-off of 2.55 percent is now recorded as one of 3.20 percent – the worst since the 18.64 percent nosedive of April, 2020, during the height of the pandemic’s first wave.

Machinery has now grown by 5.07 percent during the pandemic period, versus the 2.82 percent calculable last month.

Interestingly, except for the still-shortage-plagued semiconductor industry, August was a banner output month for the sectors that consistently have made headlines during the pandemic.

Real output of microchips and related products did decrease by 0.57 percent, but the decline was the first in three months. Revisions were negative, though. July’s initially reported 1.16 percent rise has been downgraded to one of 0.77 percent and following a major upward revision from 0.18 percent growth to 2.09 percent, June’s real output now stands at 0.88 percent. But after a massive downgrade from 0.52 growth to 2.24 percent shrinkage, May’s performance is now recorded as a just a 0.72 percent loss.

After-inflation semiconductor production is now up 17.46 percent since pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 21.98 percent calculable last month.

Aircraft and parts surged by 3.11 percent sequentially in August after inflation, these industries’ strongest such performance since the 8.61 percent burst in January, 2021. Revisions were mixed, as July’s initially reported 1.02 percent real monthly output rise to one of 1.52 percent, but June’s initially reported 0.26 percent advance revised down to one of 0.18 percent and then back up to just 0.24 percent, and May’s initially reported 0.33 percent advance now judged to be have been a 0.47 percent retreat.

Even so, constant dollar aircraft and parts output is up by 30.60 percent since February, 2020, versus the 26.67 percent calculable last month.

In pharmaceuticals and medicines, real production was up month-to-month in August by 1.62 percent, these sectors’ best such performance since last August’s 1.96 percent. Revisions here, too, were mixed. July’s initially reported 0.29 percent increase was bumped up to growth of 0.30 percent. June’s results stayed at a 0.32 percent increase after being downgraded from 0.39 percent. But May’s initial growth figure of 0.35 percent now stands at 1.20 percent after some ups and downs.

Since just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force, pharmaceuticals and medicines output (including vaccines) is now up 16.56 percent in real terms, versus the 14.69 percent calculable last month.

And medical equipment and supplies firms (including those that make anti-CCP Virus products) boosted their price-adjusted production in August by three percent in constant dollar terms – their best such performance since January’s 3.15 percent. Revisions were negative on net. July’s initially reported inflation-adjusted improvement of 1.90 percent was downgraded to an increase of 1.58 percent. June’s original 3.12 percent real growth figure has now been revised down twice – to 1.01 and 0.67 percent. May’s initial estimate of 1.44 percent real growth is now pegged at 1.36 percent.

Yet real production in this sector is now 17.81 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 16.15 percent calculable last month.

At this point, it’s easy to make the case that the headwinds facing domestic manufacturing are stronger than the tailwinds. There’s not only continued tighter inflation-fighting and growth-slowing monetary policies being pursued by the Fed along with mounting evidence that America’s overall economic growth will remain slow at best. There’s the end of the mammoth government deficit spending that’s also supported that growth for so long, and especially during the CCP Virus emergency. And don’t forget the continually darkening outlook for the global economy – and for the export markets on which U.S.-based industry relies significantly (nearly 18 percent of its gross output in 2021 by my calculations).

U.S.-based industry has been resilient since the pandemic arrived, but it wasn’t able to escape the undertow of the domestic and overseas economic downturns it generated. That seems like as good a forecast as any for domestic manufacturing output over the next few months, too.   

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: An Up-Side Surprise for U.S. Manufacturing Output

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aircraft, aircraft parts, apparel, appliances, automotive, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, electrical components, electrical equipment, fabricated metal products, Federal Reserve, furniture, machinery, manufacturing, medical devices, pharmaceuticals, printing, recession, semiconductors, transportation equipment, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Just as it’s looking like the U.S. economy as a whole may have skirted the danger of a near-term recession, domestic American manufacturing saw a revival of its fortunes last month, according to yesterday morning’s latest official report on its after-inflation output in July.

Following two consecutive months of falling real production, U.S.-based industry grew by 0.74 percent in price-adjusted terms sequentially last month – its best such performance since March’s 0.74 percent. Revisions were mixed but modest.

These new figures mean that constant dollar U.S. manufacturing output is now 3.69 percent greater than in February, 2020, the last month before the CCP virus and assorted mandatory and voluntay burbs on economic behavior triggered a steep but brief recession and began distorting the economy. As of June’s release, domestic manufacturing had grown by an inflation-adjusted 2.98 percent since then.

Among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors tracked by the Fed were:

>the automotive industry, whose volatility fueled many of U.S.-based manufacturing’s ups and downs earlier during the pandemic, boosted its real output by 6.60 percent on month – and this burst was only its best such result since March’s 9.04 percent. Revisions here were generally negative, with June’s initially reported monthly loss of 1.49 percent revised up to one of 1.27 percent, but May’s results downgraded again to a drop of 1.92 percent, and April’s originally reported gain of 3.92 percent is pegged at 2.98 percent. All told, though, vehicle and parts production -though still dealing with semiconductor shortages – once again rose back above its immediate pre-pandemic level by 4.73 percent. As of last month, it was still down by 1.07 percent;

>fabricated metal products, which lifted real output on month in July by 2.05 percent – its best such result since February’s 2.49 percent. Revisions were mixed, with June’s initially reported decline of -0.83 percent now estimated as a decrease of 1.40 percent, May’s initially reported shrinkage of 1.16 percent downgraded further to a 1.18 tumble before being upgraded to one of 1.02 percent, and April’s initially 0.85 percent rise previously revised down to a 0.46 percent advance before recovering to one of 0.65 percent. Inflation-adjusted production in this sector has now come to within 0.14 percent of its February, 2020 levels, as opposed to 2.11 percent below them calculable last month;

>aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, where constant dollar production jumped 1.54 percent month-to-month, and where revisions were mixed, too. June’s initially reported fractional improvement is now judged to have been a dip of 0.14 percent, May’s advance estimate of a 0.85 percent decrease bouncing back from a downgrade to a 1.25 percent drop to one of 1.05 percent, and April’s initially reported 2.15 percent increase getting upgaded to one of 3.47 percent before settling back to one of 3.34 percent. In after-inflation terms, this cluster of industries is 21.30 percent bigger than just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force, versus the 19.47 percent calculable last month; and

>apparel and leather goods, which recorded a second straight excellent growth month. July constant dollar production increased on month by 1.60 percent, and June’s initially reported 2.54 percent surge was revised all the way up to 6.09 percent – its best such result since the 8.04 percent recorded in August, 2020, when the economy’s recovery from the first virus wave was still underway. But May’s initially reported 0.88 percent price-adjusted output rise was revised down a second time – to a 0.24 percent dip. And April’s advance figure, a 0.18 percent climb, is now estimated to have been a 0.43 percent decrease. Still, thanks to the last two months’ results, this long-beleaguered sector has now grown in real terms by 5.71 percent, as opposed to the 0.56 percent calculable last month; and

July’s worst performing of the major sub-categories tracked by the Fed?

>printing and related support activities, where price-adjusted production sank by 1.67 percent on month. Revisions overall were positive, with June’s first reported loss of 2.16 percent revised up to one of 0.51 percent, May’s advance estimate of a 0.35 percent retreat upgraded a second time, to one of only 0.09 percent, and April’s initially reported 0.49 percent gain now standing at 0.69 percent. All the same, this group of companies still 10.50 percent smaller in real terms than it was in February, 2020, versus the11.37 figure calculable last month;

>furniture and related products,where real output sagged by 1.57 percent sequentially, the worst such result since the 2.77 percent decrease in February, 2021. Revisions on the whole were just as bad, with June’s initially reported fall-off of -0.55 percent now judged to have been one of 1.33 percent, May’s initially reported 0.94 increase (the biggest since this past February’s 4.75 percent pop) revised down second time to ai 0.99 decrease, and April’s initially reported -0.59 percent drop now pegged at a slightly smaller one of 0.41 percent. These results dragged down the furniture complex’s performance down to a 5.56 percent inflation-adjusted output shrinkage since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus a 0.91 percent decline calculable last month; and

>electrical equipment, appliances and components, where after-inflation production was off 1.41 percent from June’s levels. Revisions, though, were on the whole positive. June’s originally reported production increase of 1.34 percent was revised up to 1.42 percent (the best such performance since February’s 2.29 percent), May’s downgrade from an advance decrease of 1.83 percent to one of 2.35 percent was upgraded to a 1.93 percent retreat, and April’s initially reported -0.60 percent drop is now judged to have been a 0.57 percent advance. Yet constant dollar production in this cluster is now up only 4.83 percent over its last pre-pandemic reading, versus the 5.59 percent figure calculable last month.

As known by RealityChek regulars, the very big and diverse machinery sector is seen as a bellwether for both the rest of manufacturing and the rest of the entire economy, since so many industries use its products. So it’s encouraging to report that in July its companies notched their first monthly real output gain (0.50 percent) since April. Revisions, however, were overall sigificantly negative terrible. June’s initially reported 1.14 percent decrease is now pegged at 2.16 percent, and May was downwardly revised again to a 3.53 percent loss (the sector’s worst since the 18.64 percent collapse in April, 2020, during the worst of the economy’s pandemic-induced downturn). Only April broke the pattern even somewhat. Its initially reported 0.85 percent price-adjusted sequential output rise was upgraded all the way to 2.27 percent in May. It’s been downgraded since, but still stands at a 1.88 percent advance (the best since January’s 1.95 percent.

These results mean that wherewas last month, inflation-adjusted machinery production was up 4.70 percent during the pandemic era, now it’s only 2.82 percent higher.

The industries that consistently have made headlines during the pandemic performed well in July, too.

Measured in constant dollars, production by aircraft- and aircraft parts-makers was up 1.02 percent on month, but revisions were modesty negative. June’s initially reported after-inflation output growth of 0.26 percent is now pegged at only 0.18 percent, and May’s real production was unchanged at down 0.23 percent after having been downgraded from a 0.33 percent improvement. After having been upgraded twice, from an initially reported 1.67 percent advance to one of 3.13 percent, the April results dipped to a 2.96 percent rise. But this was still the best monthly result since January, 2021’s 8.60 percent surge). Nonetheless, the aircraft and parts sector is now 26.67 percent larger in real terms, since February, 2020 – up from the 25.58 percent figure calculable last month.

In the big pharmaceuticals and medicines industry, real production climbed on month by 0.29 percent n July and revisions were generally positive. June’s initially reported 0.39 percent increase was slightly downgraded to 0.32 percent, but after having its initially reported 0.42 percent increase was revised down to only 0.01 percent, it was upgraded all the way to a 1.20 percent improvement. And April’s initially reported -0.20 percent after-inflation monthly production dip was revised up a third time to a 0.08 percent increase. Due to these results, real output of aircraft and parts has now grown by 14.69 percent during the pandemic period, versus the 12.98 percent calculable last month.

Medical equipment and supplies firms (who make so many of the products used to fight the CCP Virus) enjoyed a banner July, expanding after inflation by 1.90 percent – its best such result since January’s 3.15 percent jump. June’s initially reported from 3.12 percent rise was downgraded to one of 1.01 percent, but after a downward revision from 1.44 percent real growth to 1.01 percent, May’s results wee revised back up to 1.66 percent, and after two straight upward revisions and one downward, April’s final (for now!) result is now judged to be 0.44 percent growth. But this cluster’s virus era inflation-adjusted production growth now stands at 16.15 percent versus the 17.27 percent calculable last month.

For the shortage-plagued semiconductor industry, price-adjusted output improved on month in July by 1.16 percent. Revisions were positive – but all over the place. June’s initially reported 0.18 percent rise is now pegged at 0.49 percent. But after a massive downgrade from 0.52 growth to 2.24 percent shrinkage, May’s performance is now recorded as a 0.37 gain. And the April sequential results are now as follows: down 1.85 percent, down 0.88 percent, down 2.71 percent, and down 2.68 percent – still the worst production month since the 11.26 percent plunge in December, 2008 – in the middle of the Great Recession that followed the global financial crisis. After all this movement, though, constant dollar semiconductor production is now up 21.98 percent since pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, up dramatically from the 15.22 percent calculable last month.

Even by pandemic-era standards, the outlook for domestic manufacturing looks unusually murky to me. The reasons for pessimism abound (like the near certainty of more growth-slowing monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve in order to tame inflation, darkening growth prospects in all of export-heavy manufacturing’s foreign markets, and continuing supply chain woes, industry’s still ginormous trade deficit). But so do reasons for (cautious) optimism (like U.S. unemployment at 50-year lows and all the personal spending this level supports, the chance that the Fed will ultimately chicken out in its anti-inflation campaign, and the ongoing fade of the pandemic).

Moreover, and maybe most important, all recent bets so far against U.S.-based manufacturing’s resilience have been losing bets. Unless you think that the nation’s manufacturers have suddenly lost their chops, or are about to, it’s reasonable to suppose that, at least for now, they remain horses worth riding.       

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Second Straight Month of Production Shrinkage for U.S. Manufacturing

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aircraft, aircraft parts, apparel, appliances, automotive, CCP Virus, China, coronavirus, COVID 19, dollar, electrical components, electrical equipment, exchange rates, Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, inflation, inflation-adjusted growth, machinery, manufacturing, medical devices, medicines, metals, miscellaneous durable goods, monetary policy, personal protective equipment, petroleum and coal products, pharmaceuticals, production, real output, recession, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, stimulus, supply chains, textiles, Trade Deficits, Wuhan virus, Zero Covid, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Yesterday’s after-inflation U.S. manufacturing production report (for June) marked a second straight decline in real output for domestic industry, adding to the evidence that this so far resilient sector is finally suffering the effects of the entire economy’s recent slowdown.

Another possible implication of the new downbeat results: The record and surging trade deficits being run in manufacturing lately may finally be starting undermine U.S.-based manufacturing’s growth. (See here for how and why.)

Also important to note: This release from the Federal Reserve incorporated the results of both typical monthly revisions but also its annual “benchmark” revision, which reexamined its data going back several years (in this case, to 2020), and updated the figures in light of any new findings.

And the combination has revealed some big surprises – notably that the domestic semiconductor industry, which along with its foreign competition has been struggling to keep up with recently booming worldwide demand, has turned out fully 36 percent less worth of microchips on a price-adjusted basis since the CCP Virus struck than was calculable from the (pre-revisions) May report.

In real terms, U.S.-based manufacturing shrank by 0.54 percent on month in June – the worst such result since last September’s 0.78 percent drop. Moreover, May’s originally reported 0.07 sequential percent dip is now judged to be a decrease of 0.52 percent.

The April results remained good, but were downgraded a second time, from 0.75 percent monthly growth in after inflation to 0.66 percent, while the March numbers told a similar story, with a third consecutive modest downward revision still leaving that month’s inflation-adjusted expansion at 0.76 percent.

Especially discouraging, though – the June report plus the two revisions left constant dollar U.S. manufacturing output just 2.98 percent greater than just before the pandemic struck the economy in full force and began distorting it, in February, 2020. The pre-benchmark revision May release pegged its virus-era real growth at a much higher 4.94 percent, and the first post-benchmark number was 4.12 percent.

May’s biggest manufacturing growth winners among the broadest manufacturing categories tracked by the Fed were:

>the very small apparel and leather goods industry. Its price-adjusted output surged by 2.54 percent month-to-month in June – its best such perfomance since May, 2021’s 2.63 percent. May’s initially reported 0.88 percent gain was revised down to a 0.34 percent loss, though. April’s upgraded 0.30 percent rise is now judged to be a 0.33 percent decrease, and March’s figures were revised down after two upgrades – from 1.54 to a still solid 1.30 percent. But whereas last month’s Fed release showed inflation-adjusted production in this sector up 4.59 percent during the pandemic era, this growth is now pegged at just 0.56 percent; 

>the miscellaneous durable goods sector, which contains the medical products like personal protective equipment looked to as major CCP Virus fighters. It’s June sequential output jump of 2.25 percent was its biggest since March, 2021’s 2.61 percent, and revisions were overall positive. May’s initially reported 0.96 percent monthly price-adjusted production gain was downgraded to 0.49 percent, but the April figure was revised up for a second time – to 0.71 percent – and March’s results were upgraded a third straight time, to 0.51 percent.

These industries are now 14.11 percent bigger in constant dollar terms than in February, 2020, versus the 11.41 percent gain calculable last month; and

>the electrical equipment, appliances, and components cluster, where price-adjusted production climbed 1.34 percent on a monthly basis in June, the strongest such showing since February’s 2.29 percent.. Revisions were positive on net, with May’s originally reported 1.83 percent monthly falloff downgraded to one of 2.35 percent, but April’s initially estimated -0.60 percent decrease upgraded a second time,to a 0.49 percent gain, and March’s three revisions resulting in an originally judged 1.03 percent increase now pegged at 1.23 percent. These results pushed these companies’ real production 5.59 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, not the 2.19 percent calculable last month;

The list of biggest manufacturing inflation-adjusted output losers for June was considerably longer, starting with

>printing and related support activities, where the monthly inflation-adjusted production loss of 2.16 percent was the worst such showing since February, 2021’s 2.26 percent. Revisions were actually net positive, with May’s initially reported dip of 0.35 percent upgraded to one of 0.15 percent; April’s results downgraded from a one percent advance to one of 0.33 percent after being revised up from an initially reported 0.49 percent; and March’s totals rising cumulatively from an initially reported 1.10 percent decrease to a decline of just 0.05 percent. All the same, the printing cluster is now judged to be 11.37 percent smaller in real terms than in February, 2020, not the 1.89 percent calculable last month;

>petroleum and coal products, whose June sequential production decrease of 1.92 percent was its biggest since January’s 2.96 percent. Revisions here were mixed, too, with May’s figure revised up from a 2.53 percent improvement to one of 2.61 percent; April’s totals downgraded a second time, from a 0.13 rise to one of 0.04 percent to a decrease of 1.91 percent; and March’s results increasing from an initial estimate of 0.72 percent to one of 1.03 percent. But whereas last month’s Fed release showed petroleum and coal products’ after-inflation output 1.21 percent above its last pre-pandemic level, this month’s reports that it’s 0.27 percent below.

>textiles and products, where price-adjusted output sank on month by 1.80 percent for its worst month since March’s 2.45 percent shrinkage. Revisions were negative, with May’s initially reported 0.02 percent real production decline downgraded to one of 0.35 percent, April’s upgraded 0.45 percent increase now pegged as a 0.05 percent decrease, and March’s initially reported 1.55 percent falloff now judged to be one of 2.45 percent. As a result, the sector is now 5.35 percent smaller in terms of constant dollar output, rather than down 3.80 percent as calculable last month; and

>primary metals, whose inflation-adjusted production sagged by 1.60 percent on month – its poorest performance since March’s 1.42 retreat. Revisions were overall positive here, with May’s initially reported 0.77 percent real output rise downgraded to one of 0.66 percent, April’s initially downgraded 1.22 percent increase revised up to 1.46 percent, and March’s initially reported 1.69 percent drop now judged to be that aforementioned 1.42 percent. Even so, primary metals price-adjusted production is now estimated as having inched up only 0.50 percent since the pandemic arrived, not the 4.45 percent increase calculable last month.

In addition, an unusually high three other major industry sectors suffered constant dollar output declines of more than one percent on month in June. On top of plastics and rubber products (1.25 percent), the were two that RealityChek has followed especially closely during the pandemic period – machinery and automotive.

As known by RealityChek regulars, the machinery industry is a bellwether for both the rest of manufacturing and the entire economy, since use of its products is so widespread. But in June, its real production was off by 1.14 percent on month, and May’s initially reported 2.14 percent decrease is now estimated at-3.14 percent – its worst figure since the 18.64 collapse recorded in pandemic-y April, 2020. And although this April’s numbers have been revised up twice, to have reached 2.20 percen, March’s initially reported 0.78 percent inflation-adjusted increase is now estimated to have been a 0.89 decrease. Consequently, in price-adjusted terms, the machinery sector is now estimated to be 4.70 percent larger than in February, 2020, not the 6.29 percent calculable last month.

As for motor vehicles and parts makers, dogged for months by that aforementioned semiconductor shortage, their real output was off by 1.49 percent on month in June, and May’s initially reported rise of 0.70 percent is now estimated as a1.86 percent decline. Following a slight downgrade, April’s output is now pegged as growing by 3.85 percent rather than 3.34 percent, and March’s initially reported 7.80 percent advance is now pegged at 9.08 percent – the best such total since last October’s 10.34 percent. Nonetheless, after-inflation automotive output is now reported to be 1.07 percent lower than just before the pandemic arrive in force, not the 1.17 percent higher calculable last month.

Notably, other industries that consistently have made headlines during the pandemic outperformed the rest of manufacturing in June.

Constant dollar output by aircraft- and aircraft parts-makers was up 0.26 percent month-to-month in June, but revisions were mixed. May’s initially reported 0.33 percent rise has now been downgraded to a 0.23 percent decline – snapping a four-month winning streak. April’s results were upgraded a second straight time – from a hugely upgraded 2.90 percent to an excellent 3.13 percent (the best such performance since January, 2021’s 8.60 percent burst). But the March figures have been substantially downgraded from an initially reported 2.31 percent to a gain of just 0.53 percent. After all this volatility, though, real aircaft and parts production is now 25.58 percent greater than in February, 2020, much better than the 19.08 percent calculable last month.

The big pharmaceuticals and medicines industry grew its real putput by another 0.39 percent in June, but revisions were generally negative. May’s initially reported 0.42 percent improvement, however, is now judged to be just an infinitesimal 0.01 percent. April’s upgraded 0.15 percent rise is now pegged as a 0.04 percent loss, and March’s results have been downgraded all the way from an initially reported 1.17 percent increase to one of just 0.49 percent. Price-adjusted output in these sectors, therefore, is now estimated at 12.98 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 14.64 percent calculable last month.

Medical equipment and supplies firms boosted their inflation-adjusted output for a sixth straight month in June, and by a stellar 3.12 percent – their best such performance since January’s 3.15 percent. May’s growth was downgraded from 1.44 percent to 1.01 percent, but April’s estimate rose again, from 0.51 percent to 1.01 percent, and March’s initially reported 1.81 percent improvement has been slightly downgraded to 1.67 percent. This progress pushed these companies’ real pandemic era output growth from the 11.51 percent calculable last month to 17.27 percent.

The news was significantly worse, though, in that shortage-plagued semiconductor industry. Real production rose by 0.18 percent sequentially in June, but May’s initially reported 0.52 percent advance is now judged to have been a 2.24 percent drop. Meanwhile, April’s already dreary initially reported 1.85 percent slump has now been downgraded again to one of 2.71 percent (the sector’s worst such performance since the 11.26 percent plunge in December, 2008 – in the middle of the Great Recession that followed the global financial crisis). Even March’s initially reported impressive 1.99 percent monthly price-adjusted production increase has been revised all the way down to 0.52 percent.

The bottom line: The pandemic-era semiconductor real production increase that was estimated at 23.82 percent last month is now judged to have been just 15.22 percent.

It’s not as if the recent official manufacturing data has been all disappointing. Employment, notably, rose respectably on month in June. And the pace of capital spending has actually sped up some (at least through May) – which, like employment is a sign of continued optimism among manufacturers about their future outlook.

But at this point, the headwinds look stronger – including continued credit tightening by the Federal Reserve (not to mention a drawdown in the massive bond purchases that also have significantly propped up the entire economy); the resulting downshifting in domestic economic growth at which the Fed is aiming in order to bring down raging inflation; an even worse slump in economies overseas, which have been important markets for U.S.-based industry; the strongest dollar in about two decades, which puts Made in America products at a price disadvantage the world over; and the ongoing supply chain snags resulting from the Ukraine-Russia War and China’s lockdowns-happy Zero Covid policy.

And don’t forget those stratospheric and still-rising manufacturing trade deficits, which could well mean that, once the unprecedented pandemic fiscal and monetary stimulus/virus relief that have helped create so much business for domestic industry starts fading significantly, U.S.-based manufacturers could might themselves further behind the eight-ball than ever.  

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Revisions Take U.S. Manufacturing’s Solid Pandemic-Era Performance Down a Notch

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aerospace, aircraft, aircraft parts, apparel, appliances, CCP Virus, chemicals, computer and electronics products, coronavirus, COVID 19, durable goods, electrical components, electrical equipment, fabricated metal products, Federal Reserve, furniture, inflation-adjusted output, machinery, manufacturing, medical devices, miscellaneous durable goods, miscellaneous nondurable goods, nondurable goods, nonmetallic mineral products, paper, petroleum and coal products, pharmaceuticals, plastics and rubber products, printing, real growth, recession, semiconductors, textiles, wood products, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Sharp-eyed RealityChek readers have no doubt noticed my habit of noting that “final” versions of official U.S. economic data are typically final only “for now.” That’s because Washington’s statistics gathering agencies, to their credit, look back regularly on several years’ worth of figures to see where updates are needed because new information has come in, and this morning, the Federal Reserve released its own such “benchmark” revision of its manufacturing production data.

The results don’t contain any earthshaking changes, but they do alter the picture of domestic industry’s inflation-adjusted growth during the pandemic period, as well as of the performance of specific sectors, in non-trivial ways.

The main bottom lines: First, the Fed previously estimated that U.S.-based manufacturers had increased their constant dollar production from February, 2020 (the month before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force began roiling the entire American economy) through last month, by 4.94 percent. Today, the Fed told us that the advance was just 4.12 percent.

Second, as a result, domestic industry has further to go in real terms to recover its all-time high than the central bank had judged. As of the last regular monthly industrial production increase, U.S.-based manufacturing was 2.41 percent smaller after inflation than in December, 2007 – still its peak. But the new figures show that these manufacturers are still three percent behind the after-inflation output eight-ball.

Third, and especially interesting given the recent, significant U.S. growth slowdown and distinct possibility of a recession before too long, the revisions add (though just slightly) to the evidence that the overall economy’s woes this year are indeed beginning to affect manufacturing. Before the revision, the Fed judged that real manufacturing output had expanded by 2.68 percent between last December and this May, and slipped by 0.07 percent between April and May. The new figures: 2.46 percent and -0.22 percent, respectively.

The virus-era downward revisions affected durable goods and nondurable goods industries alike. The previous price-adjusted growth figure for the former during the pandemic period was 6.31 percent. Now it’s pegged at 5.18 percent. For the latter, the downgrade was from 3.42 percent to 2.99 percent.

Before the revisions, of the twenty broadest sub-sectors of manufacturing tracked by the Fed, only five suffered inflation-adjusted production declines from immediate pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 through this May, and all were found in the nondurables super-category. They were miscellaneous non-durable goods (down 11.43 percent), textiles (down 3.80 percent), paper (2.33 percent), printing and related activities (1.89 percent), and petroleum and coal products (1.21 percent).

The new data show that the number of growth losers has expanded to eight;. Four sectors were added: fabricated metals products (down 1.30 percent), nonmetallic mineral products (1.06 percent), apparel and leather goods (off by 0.59 percent), and furniture and related products (0.17 percent). And petroleum and coal products’ contant dollar production was upgraded from a 1.21 percent decrease during the pandemic period to a 2.96 percent gain.

The names on the list of top five pandemic period growers remained the same, with after-inflation production actually improving in aerospace and miscellaneous transportation (from 18.99 percent to 19.69 percent), miscellaneous durable goods (from 11.41 percent to 12.43 percent), and machinery (from 6.29 percent to 6.52 percent). But real production gains were revised down in computer and electronics products (from 10.42 percent to 7.38 percent), and chemicals (from 8.48 percent to 7.55 percent).

In absolute tems, the biggest price-adjusted output upgrades were registered in miscellaneous nondurable goods (from an 11.43 pecent nosedive to a smaller drop of 7.56 percent), electrical equipment, appliances and components (from a 2.19 percent rise to one of 4.95 percent), the aforementioned petroleum and coal products sector, wood products (from a 5.24 percent increase to 6.45 percent), and plastics and rubber products (from 1.78 percent growth to 2.76 percent).

The biggest real production downgrades came in the printing sector (all the way from a 1.89 percent inflation-adjusted output shrinkage to one of 9.52 percent), apparel and leather goods (from a 4.59 percent real production rise to a 0.59 percent dip), nonmetallic mineral products (from 2.58 percent price-adjusted growth to a 1.06 percent decline), and the aforementioned computer and electronics product sector.

RealityChek has been following with special interest narrower sectors that have attracted unusual attention since the CCP Virus arrived, and the new industrial production revision shows that constant dollar output climbed by more than previously estimated in aircraft and parts (24.89 percent versus 19.08 percent) and medical equipment and supplies (14.48 percent versus 11.51 percent), and by less in semiconductors and other electronic components (22.48 percent versus 23.82 percent) and in pharmaceuticals and medicine (12.79 percent versus 14.78 percent).

These Fed revisions are hardly a reason to push the panic button about U.S. manufacturing. But because domestic industry’s fortunes during the pandemic era have been so closely tied to blazing hot demand for its products, it’s hardly great news to learn that with signs abounding of a slumping American economy, manufacturing is approaching this apparent downturn in less robust shape than thought as late as yesterday.   

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Will Inflation and a Hawkish Fed Finally Undermine U.S. Manufacturing?

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aerospace, aircraft, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, capital spending, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, electrical components, electrical equipment, Federal Reserve, furniture, inflation, inflation-adjusted output, machinery, manufacturing, medical devices, medicines, non-metallic mineral products, petroleum and coal products, pharmaceuticals, real growth, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, wood products, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The new (May) U.S. manufacturing production report from the Federal Reserve doesn’t mainly indicate that industry may be facing a crossroads because the sector’s inflation-adjusted output dropped on month for the first time since January.

Instead, it signals that a significant slowdown may lie ahead for U.S.-based manufacturers because its downbeat results dovetail with the latest humdrum manufacturing jobs report (also for May), with results of some of the latest sentiment surveys conducted by regional branches of the Fed (e.g., here), and with evidence of a rollover in spending on machinery and equipment by the entire economy (which fuels much manufacturing output and typically reflects optimism about future business prospects).

Domestic industry shrank slightly (by 0.07 percent) in real output terms month-to-month in May. On the bright side, the strong results of recent months stayed basically unrevised, and April’s very good advance was upgraded from 0.75 percent to 0.77 percent.

Still, the May results mean that real U.S. manufacturing production is now up 4.94 percent since just before the CCP Virus began roiling and distorting the American economy (February, 2020), rather than the 5.07 percent calculable from last month’s report.

May’s biggest manufacturing growth winners were:

>Petroleum and coal products, where after-inflation jumped by 2.53 percent sequentially in May. The improvement was the fourth straight, and the increase the best since February’s 2.68 percent. As a result, constant dollar production in these sectors is now 1.21 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020;

>Non-metallic mineral products, whose 1.78 percent sequential growth in May followed an April fall-off that was revised way down from -0.67 percent to -1.72 percent. March’s 0.76 percent decrease was downgraded to a 1.29 percent retreat, but February’s sequential pop was revised down just slightly to a still outstanding 4.37 percent surge. All told, the sector has grown by 2.58 percent after inflation since February, 2020 – exactly the same result calculable from last month’s Fed release; and

>Furniture and related products, whose 1.23 percent May inflation-adjusted output rise was its first such increase since February’s, and its best since that month’s 4.96 percent surge. Moreover, the May advance comes off an April performance that was revised up from a -0.60 percent sequential dip to one of -0.12. In all, these results were enough to move real furniture production above its Februay, 2020 level – by 0.08 percent.

May’s biggest manufacturing production losers were:

>wood products, whose 2.56 percent real monthly output decline was its first decrease since January and its worst since February. 2021’s 3.65 percent. Moreover, April’s previously reported 1.13 percent advance is now estimated to have been just 0.97 percent – all of which means that constant dollar production by these companies is now 5.24 percent higher than just before the pandemic arrived, not the 7.85 percent calculable last month;

>machinery, whose May inflation-adjusted output sank by 2.14 percent – the biggest such setback since February, 2021’s 2.59 percent. As known by RealityChek readers, machinery production is one of those aforementioned indicators of capital spending because it’s sold to customers not just in manufacturing but throughout the economy.

It’s true that machinery’s revisions were mixed. April’s after-inflation production increase was upgraded all the way fom 0.85 percent to 1.69 percent – its best such performance since last July’s 2.85 percent. But March’s performance was revised down from 0.36 percent to one percent shrinkage, and February’s increase was revised up again, but only from 1.17 percent to 1.22 percent. Consequently, whereas as of last month, machinery production was 8.31 percent higher in real terms than in February, 2020, this growth is now down to 6.29 percent.

>electrical equipment, appliances and components, where real output sagged for the second consecutive month, and by a 1.83 percent that was its worst such monthly performance since February, 2021’s 2.34 percent decrease. Revisions were modest and mixed, with April’s previously reported 0.60 percent sequential drop upgraded to -0.42 percent, March’s downgraded 0.04 percent dip upgraded to a 0.19 percent gain, and February’s real output revised up again – from 2.03 percent to 2.08 percent. These moves put real growth in the sector post-February, 2020 at 2.19 percent, less than half the 5.55 percent calculable last month.

By contrast, industries that consistently have made headlines during the pandemic delivered solid May performances.

Aircraft- and aircraft parts-makers pushed their real production up 0.33 percent on month in May, achieving their fifth straight month of growth. Moreover, April’s excellent 1.67 percent sequential production increase was upgraded to 2.90 percent (the sector’s best such result since last July’s 3.44 percent), March’s estimate inched up from a hugely downgraded 0.47 percent to 0.50 percent, and the February results were upgraded again – from 1.34 percent to 1.49 percent. This good production news boosted these companies’ real output gain since immediately pre-pandemic-y 16.37 percent to 19.08 percent.

The big pharmaceuticals and medicines industry performed well in May, too, as after-inflation production increased by 0.42 percent. Revisions were overall negative but small. April’s initially reported 0.20 percent real output slip is now judged to be a0.15 percent gain, but March’s upwardly revised 1.23 percent increase is now pegged at only 0.32 percent, and February’s downwardly revised 0.96 percent constant dollar output drop revised up to -0.86 percent. All told, inflation-adjusted growth in the pharmaceuticals and medicines sector is now up 14.78 percent since February, 2020, as opposed to the 14.64 percent increase calculable last month.

Medical equipment and supplies firms fared even better, as their 1.44 percent monthly real output growth in May (their fifth straight advance) was their best such result since February, 2021’s 1.53 percent. Revisions were positive, too. April’s previously recorded 0.06 percent dip is now estimated as a 0.51 percent increase, March’s downgraded 1.28 percent figure was upgraded to 1.41 percent, and February’s 1.46 percent improvement now stands at 1.53 percent. These sectors are now 11.51 percent bigger in terms of constant dollar output than they were just before the CCP Virus arrived in force – a nice improvement from the 8.92 percent figure calculable last month.

May also saw a production bounceback in the shortage-plagued semiconductor industry. Its inflation-adjusted production climbed 0.52 percent on month, but April’s previously reported 1.85 percent drop – its worst such performance since last June’s 1.62 percent – is now judged to be a 2.25 percent decline. At least the March and February results received small upgrades – the former’s improving from a previously downgraded 1.83 percent rise to 1.92 percent, and February’s upgraded growth of 2.91 percent now estimated at 2.96 percent. The post-February, 2020 bottom line: After-inflation semiconductor production is now 23.82 percent higher, not the 23.38 pecent increase calculable last month.

And since the automotive industry’s ups and downs have been so crucial to domestic manufacturing’s ups and downs during the pandemic era, it’s worth noting its 0.70 percent monthly price-adjusted output growth in May.

Revisions overall were negative. April’s previously reported 3.92 percent constant dollar production growth was revised down to 3.34 percent, March’s 8.28 percent burst was upgraded to 8.99 percent (the best such result since last October’s 10.64 percent jump), and February’s previously upgraded 3.86 percent inflation-adjusted production decrease was downgraded to a 4.24 percent plunge.

But given that motor vehicle- and parts-makers are still dealing with the aforementioned semiconductor shortage, these numbers look impressive, and real automotive output is now 1.17 percent greater than in pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, as opposed to the 0.77 percent increase calculable last month.

Domestic manufacturing has overcome so many obstacles since the CCP Virus’ arrival that counting it out in growth terms could still be premature. But an obstacle that it hasn’t faced since the pandemic-induced downturn have s looming again — a major economy-wide slowdown and possible recession that could result from monetary tightening announced by the Federal Reserve to fight torrid inflation.  And with the world economy likely to stay sluggish as well and limit export opportunities (see, e.g., here), the possibility that industry’s winning streak finally ends can’t be dismissed out of hand.  

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The New Official U.S. Manufacturing Data Look Anything but Recession-y

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aerospace, aircaft, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, electrical equipment, electronic components, Federal Reserve, furniture, industrial production, inflation, machinery, manufacturing, medical devices, medicines, metals, non-metallic mineral products, pharmaceuticals, plastics and rubber products, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, supply chains, transportation equipment, Ukraine, wood products, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s Federal Reserve industrial production report (for April) is making clearer than ever that if the U.S. economy is headed for a recession or a major growth slowdown, domestic manufacturing won’t deserve significant blame unless it takes a major nosedive before too long.

The report showed that despite the Ukraine war, despite ongoing supply chain snags, despite torrid inflation, and despite Federal Reserve plans to cool these price rises with interest rate hikes that will almost have to moderate growth if they work, U.S.-based industry increased output for the seventh straight month – and by a thoroughly respectable 0.75 percent.

Moreover, modest and mixed revisions left those strong recently results entirely intact. As a result, since February, 2020 – the last full data month before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force began upending the economy – domestic manufacturing has grown in real terms by 5.07 percent, up from the 4.42 percent calculable from last month’s release. In addition, in constant dollars, these sectors’ production is now within 2.29 percent of its all-time high – reached in December, 2007, just as the Great Recession triggered by the global financial crisis was beginning.

The list of April’s main manufacturing growth leaders was headed by the volatile automotive sector, but many of the biggest industry sub-sectors tracked by the Fed enjoyed healthy expansions last month.

Especially encouraging about the combined performance of vehicle and parts makers – which continue to be plagued by the global semiconductor shortage – was the follow-through. Their vigorous April sequential 3.92 percent after-inflation output increase followed a March gain upgraded from 7.80 percent to 8.28 percent, and that represented the biggest monthly advance since last October’s 10.64 percent. And that result followed a September tumble of 6.32 percent. Moreover, February’s big monthly dropoff was upgraded again, to a 3.86 percent loss.

All told, price-adjusted automotive output in April moved above its February, 2020 immediate pre-pandemic level (by 0.77 percent) for the first time since July, 2020.

A banner April also was registered by aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment companies. They boosted inflation-adjusted production by a sequential 2.15 percent. But March’s initially reported 1.90 percent after-inflation increase – previously the best monthly performance since last July’s 4.21 percent jump – is now judged to be a negligible 0.08 percent rise, February’s downgraded 1.64 percent real production improvement, however, was revised up to 1.82 percent, leaving these businesses 17.28 percent larger than in February, 2020 – as opposed to the 16.43 percent growth calculable from last month’s Fed report.

Inflation-adjusted primary metals production rose on month by 1.36 percent in April, and March’s initially reported 1.69 percent sequential drop – the biggest since January’s 2.53 percent plunge – is now judged to be just 0.75 percent. And February’s already upwardly revised constant dollar production surge was upgraded again – to a 2.94 percent figure that’s still the best since last April’s 3.48 percent. After-inflation production of these metals is now 4.01 percent greater than in February, 2020, compared with the 1.16 percent calculable last month;

Wood products output expanded nicely in real terms, too – by 1.13 percent sequentially in April. This improvement pushed this industry’s price-adjusted production to 7.85 percent above its immediate pre-pandemic level.

And consistent with manufacturing’s overall output winning streak, machinery production continued in April continued to excel as well – although more unevenly. Real output in this bellwether sector – whose products are used so widely throughout the economy – climbed by 0.85 percent sequentially in April. And although March’s results were revised way down from 0.78 percent growth to 0.36 percent contraction, February’s previously reported and downgraded 0.54 percent improvement was revised way up to 1.17 percent. As a result, the sector is now 8.31 percent bigger after inflation than in immediately pre-pandemic February, 2020.

The biggest April manufacturing growth losers were:

>plastics and rubber products, where a March real output increase of a sharply downgraded 0.58 percent was followed by a 0.79 percent decrease that was the biggest monthly decline since December’s 0.94 percent. February, moreover, saw another discouraging revision – from a 3.14 percent constant dollar monthly advance to 2.80 percent. At least that result still was the best since August, 2020’s 3.85 percent. Consequently, this sector is now just 1.05 percent bigger in real output terms than in February, 2020 – as opposed to the 3.56 percent calculable last month;

>non-metallic mineral products, where inflation-adjusted production dipped for a second straight month – this time by 0.67 percent. March’s drop, however, is now pegged at only 0.76 percent instead of 1.15 percent, and February’s upgraded real output burst of 3.94 percent is now estimated at 4.42 percent, its best such performance since the 9.19 percent increase in May, 2020, early during the rapid recovery from the steep recession caused by the CCP Virus’ first wave and associated economic and behavioral curbs. But whereas as of last month’s industrial production report, these sectors had grown by an inflation-adjusted 3.28 percent since February, 2020, this figure is now down to 2.58 percent.

>electrical equipment, appliances, and components, where real output fell for a second straight month. The April sequential decrease was 0.60 percent and followed a 0.04 percent March drop that was first reported as a 1.03 percent increase. Fortunately, February’s results were upgraded a second time, to a 2.03 percent advance that’s still the sector’s best since last July’s 3.24 percent. But the net result is a group of industries that’s now only 3.55 percent larger in real output terms than in February, 2020, as opposed to the 5.55 percent calculable last month; and

>furniture and related products, whose price-adjusted output decreased in April for the second straight month. The 0.60 percent monthly retreat means that these sectors have shrunk by an inflation-adjusted 1.56 percent since February, 2020.

Growth, however, generally tailed off in April in industries that consistently have made headlines during the pandemic.

The aircraft and aircraft parts sectors were the out-performers. Their real output rose on month in April by a strong 1.67 percent. But even here, March’s initially reported even better 2.31 percent increase is now pegged at just 0.47 percent. The February estimate, however, bounced back from a downgraded 1.13 percent gain to an improvement of 1.34 percent, helping the sector to register 16.37 percent real production growth since February, 2020, compared with the 15.86 percent calculable last month.

Inflation-adjusted output in the big pharmaceuticals and medicines industry dropped sequentially in April for the third time in the last four months. More encouragingly, that 0.20 percent decline followed March growth that was revised up from 1.17 percent to 1.23 percent. But February’s 1.15 percent decrease is now estimated at a still dreary 0.96 percent retreat, and January’s previously upgraded 0.45 percent increase is now thought to be a contraction of 0.26 percent. So where as of last month, real pharmaceuticals and medicines output was reported as 14.75 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, that growth is now down to 14.64 percent.

As for medical equipment and supplies, these sectors suffered their first monthly production decline (0.06 percent) since December’s 0.68 percent. In addition, March’s previously reported 1.81 percent rise was revised down to 1.28 percent, February’s previously upgraded 1.73 percent increase was cut back to 1.46 percent, and January’s upwardly revised gains were trimmed from 3.28 percent to 2.94 percent. As a result, these industries’ post-February, 2020 real production increase is now estimated at 8.92 percent, down from the 10.28 percent improvement calculable last month.

Even semiconductor output took a hit in April. The shortage-plagued sector saw real production sink by 1.85 percent sequentially last month – its worst such performance since last June’s 1.62 percent. Revisions were mixed, with March’s initially reported 1.99 percent constant dollar advance reduced to 1.83 percent; February’s big jump upgraded again to 2.91 percent; and January’s fractional 0.05 percent increase revised up to 0.06 percent. These results still left price-adjusted semiconductor production up 23.38 percent since February, 2020, but that figure is down from the 25.99 percent calculable last month.

An entirely new hurdle to domestic manufacturing output could appear in late June. That’s when the Fed’s data gatherers tell us they’ll issue their next annual benchmark revision – which could reveal that U.S.-based industry’s performance has been weaker in recent years than they’d thought. At the same time, it could turn out to be stronger.  Given how domestic manufacturing has overcome so many other headwinds recently, that would be an upside surprise that I at least wouldn’t find completely surprising.   

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Growth is Overcoming the Ukraine War, Too

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My day got away from me yesterday, so I couldn’t finish up my report on that morning’s Federal Reserve’s newest U.S. manufacturing production figures (for March) till now. But they’re worth examining in detail because although they’re the first such data to be released since the Ukraine war broke out and began disrupting global supply chains for important goods, they strongly resembled last month’s statistics – which were the final pre-war figures.

And just as interesting: Many of the results for individual industries illustrated strikingly the roller coaster ride on which much of domestic industry remains, with multi-month bests in particular coming right on the heels of multi-month worsts. Moreover, underscoring much of the uncertainty created by Ukraine-related tumult coming on top of (and in China’s case, alongside) CCP Virus-related tumult, some revisions of previous months’ readings were unusually large.

In inflation-adjusted terms, American manufacturing output grew 0.87 percent sequentially in March. The increase was powered largely by a 7.80 percent monthly jump in real output in the exceptionally volatile automotive sector. But even stripping out vehicles and parts production, price-adjusted manufacturing production improved by 0.40 percent in March.

In addition, revisions were mildly positive. February’s initially reported 1.20 percent constant dollar month-on-month production increase – the best such performance since last October’s 1.71 percent – was upgraded to 1.22 percent. January’s downwardly revised 0.03 percent improvement is now estimated at 0.11 percent. And December’s small dip was revised up again – from -0.06 percent to -005 percent.

Consequently, since the last full data month before the CCP Virus began roiling the U.S. economy (February, 2020), domestic manufacturing has expanded by 4.42 percent – up from the 3.37 percent calculable last month.

At the same time, U.S.-based industry is still 2.91 percent smaller than at its all-time peak – reached just before the Great Recession in December, 2007 – although that’s up from the 3.88 percent deficit calculable last month.

March’s biggest manufacturing production winners were:

>automotive, as mentioned above. That was the biggest sequential gain since last October’s 10.64 percent, but it follows a February drop that’s been downgraded from 3.55 percent to 4.64 percent. And that was the worst monthly figure since last September’s 6.32 percent. All these (and previous) ups and downs left after-inflation vehicle and parts production 3.50 percent below their immediate pre-pandemic (February, 2020) levels;

>aerospace and miscellaneous transportation, where after-inflation production rose by 1.90 percent on month. The February advance, was downgraded substantially, from 3.22 percent to 1.64 percent, leaving the March increase the biggest since last July’s 4.21 percent. These industries are now 16.43 percent larger in real terms than in February, 2020;

>electrical equipment, appliances and components’ price-adjusted production climbed 1.03 percent sequentially and February’s increase was revised all the way up from 0.48 pecent to 1.95 percent– best since last July’s 3.24 percent. Inflation-adjusted output in these sectors is now 5.55 percent above thei February, 2020 levels; and

>plastics and rubber products, which displayed a similar pattern. Real output was up 1.14 percent sequentially in March, and February’s results were more than doubled – from +1.46 percent to +3.14 percent. That burst – the best since August, 2020’s 3.85 percent – left constant dollar production for these industries 3.56 percent greater than in immediate pre-pandemic-y February. 2020

In addition machinery, which is such a bellwether for both the rest of industry and the entire economy because of the widespread use of its products, price-adjusted output in March improved by 0.78 percent over February’s results. And although the February improvement was downgraded from 0.78 percent to 0.54 percent, after-inflation machinery production is still up 8.29 percent since February, 2020.

The biggest March manufacturing growth losers were:

>non-metallic mineral products, whose 1.15 percent March monthly decline was the worst such figure since last May’s 2.29 percent decrease. But this drop-off followed a February monthly surge that was upgraded from 3.46 percent to 3.94 percent – the .best such showing the 4.34 percent of June, 2020 – early in the recovery from the deep economic downturn triggered by the first wave of the CCP Virus and related lockdowns and behavioral curbs. Real output in this sector has now risen by 3.28 percent since February. 2020;

>primary metals, where similarly. March’s 1.69 percent fall was the biggest since January’s 2.46 percent drop – and followed a February 2.26 percent increase that was upgraded from the previously reported 2.10 percent and represented the best monthly performance last April’s 3.48 percent. Primary metals inflation-adjusted output is now 1.16 greater than in Februrary, 2020;

>furniture and related products’ after-inflation production sank by 1.51 percent from February to March – the worst such figure since February, 2021’s 3.21 drop. But March’s lousy results followed a February increase that was also more than doubled – from 2.52 percent to a 5.63 jump that was this sector’s best since June 2020’s 5.66 percent. These results brought real output in furniture and related products to within 0.80 percent of its immediate, February, 2020 pre-pndemic level;

>textiles’ 1.46 percent monthly March real output decrease was its worst monthly result since January’s 2.30 percent drop. But it, too, followed a strong February. That month’s improvement was upgraded from 0.03 percent to 0.97 percent – the biggest monthl increase since September’s 1.36 percent. Yet in real terms, the industry is still 5.84 percent smaller than in February. 2020;

>and printing and related support activities. It’s 1.10 percent March sequential after-inflation output retreat was also its worst since January’s 2.16 percent decrease. But it, too, followed a strong February. Indeed, that months’ inflation-adjusted production increase was revised up from 1.66 percent to 2.66 percent – its best such performance since last May’s 2.75 percent rise. This cluster, though, has still shrunk by 4.69 percent in constant dollar terms since February. 2020.

Growth was solid, too, in industries that consistently have made headlines during the pandemic.

In the aircraft and aircraft parts sector, real production increased in March by 2.31 percent. Because February’s initially reported 2.52 percent monthly rise was marked all the way down to 1.13 percent, the March figure became these industries’ best since last July’s 3.44 percent (which I mistakenly reported last month was an August total). January’s results were downgraded, too – and for a second time, to 0.91 percent. But the sector is still 15.86 percent bigger than it was after inflation than in February, 2020.

The big pharmaceuticals and medicines sector turned in a more mixed performance. March’s 1.17 percent price-adjusted monthly production increase was the best such total since last August’s 2.39 percent. But February’s initially reported 1.08 percent gain is now reported as a 1.15 percent loss. January’s constant dollar production change, however, was revised up from a 0.14 percent drop to a 0.45 percent increase. All told, pharamaceuticals and medicines production is 14.75 percent higher afte inflation than in February, 2020.

But the news was unambiguously good in the medical equipment and supplies sector that contains so many of the products needed to fight the pandemic. The March inflation-adjusted output improvement was 1.81 percent and February’s production growth was upgraded from 1.39 pecent to 1.73 percent. Further, the January after-inflation growth figures – which had already been revised up from 2.50 percent to 3.26 percent – was upgraded further to 3.28 percent. And a December result that was first reported as a decline of 2.75 percent is now estimated to be a dip of just 0.37 percent. All told, output in these sectors has increased by 10.80 percent since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020.

And although the national and global semiconductor shortage persists, U.S. domestic production kept rising healthily. Output in March improved month-to-month by 1.99 percent adjusted for inflation, February’s initially reported rise of 1.96 percent was upgraded to 2.87 percent (the best such growth since April, 2017’s 3.78 percent), and January’s downwardly revised 0.37 percent sequential output decline was revised up to a 0.05 percent gain. As a result, semiconductor production is upfully 25.99 percent over its immediate pre-pandemic levels.

The March manufacturing production figures portray a domestic industry resilient enough to withstand not only pestilence but (so far) war and the beginnings of tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy aimed at slowing U.S. growth in the name of reducing  inflation. No one knows what catastrophes the future may hold, or how much more the aforementioned problems could worsen. But it’s looking like any force powerful enough to derail American manufacturing for long may need to be truly Biblical in its proportions.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Employment Powers Through Ukraine Jitters, Too

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aerospace, aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, CCP Virus, chemicals, China, coronavirus, COVID 19, electrical equipment, Employment, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, Jobs, lockdowns, machinery, medicines, metals, monetary policy, non-farm employment, non-farm jobs, personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, PPE, recession, Russia, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, supply chains, surgical equipment, tariffs, transportation equipment, Ukraine-Russia war, vaccines, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The Ukraine war looks like the latest disastrous development that’s failed to stop the impressive growth in U.S. domestic manufacturing employment – just as has been the case recently with the Omicron variant of the CCP Virus and surging inflation. And let’s not forget that the Federal Reserve has begun raising interest rates and signaled that steeper hikes are on the way – steps of course designed to cool off the economy, including the demand for manufactured goods.

U.S.-based industry added a strong 38,000 net new jobs on month in March, according to this morning’s monthly employment report from the Labor Department, and revisions were positive. February’s initially reported 36,000 sequential improvement was upgraded to 38,000, and January’s already upwardly revised 16,000 advance is now judged to have been 26,000.

In fact, domestic industry slightly outperformed the rest of the non-farm economy (the Labor Department’s definition of the U.S. jobs universe) job-wise in March, with its share of non-farm employment inching up from 8.38 percent to 8.39 percent. These results, moreover, show that manufacturing jobs have grown a bit faster than the overall economy’s throughout the pandemic period. In February, 2020, the last data month before the virus and related lockdowns and behavioral curbs began roiling and distorting the economy, manufacturing accounted for 8.38 percent of total non-farm jobs.

The comparison with the private sector isn’t quite as impressive, but satisfactory all the same. Manufacturing’s share of those jobs as of March was 9.83 percent – exactly the same as it was in February, 2020. And some context is essential here: U.S. manufacturing payrolls have held their own and then some even though the massive, sweeping Trump tariffs on imports from China – which were supposed to cripple domestic industry – are still almost entirely in place, as are many of the former president’s tariffs and other trade curbs on metals.

From another vantage point, manufacturing has now replaced 1.244 million (90.60 percent) of the 1.362 million jobs it shed in March and April, 2020 – the peak of the CCP Virus’ first wave.

That trails the 92.82 percent of non-farm workers and 95.46 percent of private sector workers hired back during this period. But the gap isn’t big at all, and manufacturers shrunk their headcounts proportionately less than the rest of the economy during that horrendous spring of 2020. So they didn’t have as much ground to make up.

February’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the major sectors tracked by the Labor Department were:

>transport equipment, where payrolls in March advances by 10,800 – their best such performance since last August’s 19,000. At the same time, this increase followed a 19,800 February jobs plunge that was the sector’s worst such performance since the automotive sub-sector’s semiconductor shortage woes led to a nosedive of 48,100 in April, 2021. All this volatility left this sector’s employment levels 4.05 percent below those in that final pre-pandemic data month of Februay, 2020 – versus the one percent decrease since then by manufacturing overall;

>chemicals, whose 7,200 monthly jobs jump was its best ever (or at least since figures began being tracked in 1990). The previous all-time high was the 6,600 gain of January, 2021. This huge industry’s headcount is now up 4.49 percent since February, 2020;

>electrical equipment and appliances, where employment rose sequentially by 3,800 for its strongest increase since March, 2021’s 4,200. Jobs-wise, these industries are now 2.82 percent larger than in Febuary, 2020;

>and automotive. This industry, a sub-sector of transportation equipment, boosted employment by 6,400 in March, the most in a month since last October’s 34,200 burst. But underscoring the volatility among vehicle and parts makers, This March increase followed a 16,000 drop-off in February that was the biggest decrease since the 49,100 jobs lost in April, 2021. These ups and downs still have left automotive employment 1.32 percent their February, 2020 levels.

Machinery’s 1,700 monthly jobs gain in March wasn’t exceptional by the above standards. But RealityChek regulars know it’s of special importance because its products are so widely used throughout manufacturing and the rest of the economy. And in a somewhat discouraging development, this sector’s initially reported 8,300 jobs growth was revised down to 6,600. And its payrolls are still 2.89 percent smaller than in February, 2020.

The only significant jobs loser in March was non-metallic mineral products, where employment sank by 4,500 on month. That was the sector’s worst such perforance since last May’s 5,300 decline, but the March downturn snapped a string of good gains for these companies, and their workforces are 2.81 percent above their February, 2020 levels.

As always, the most detailed employment data for pandemic-related industries are one month behind those in the broader categories, and as with the rest of domestic industry for February, their employment picture showed improvement overall.

In that shortages-plagued semiconductor and related devices sector, employment dipped by 100 on month, but January’s initially reported 200 increase was revised up to 300– its best such performance since October’s 1,000 advance. Since February, 2020, its headcount has climbed by only 0.86 percent, but these companies actually added jobs during the very steep CCP Virus-induced recession of spring, 2020.

Surgical appliances and supplies makers – whose products include personal protective equipment and similar medical goods – boosted employment by 800 in February. January’s initially reported 1,700 jobs increase was downgraded to 1,300, and December’s results were unrevised at 1,100. These health security-related companies have expanded their workforces by 3.79 percent since February, 2020.

The employment news was particularly good in the very big pharmaceuticals and medicines industry. Its February monthly employment increase of 1,300 was the best since September’s 1,600, and January’s initially reported dip of 100 now stands as an increase of 1,100. December’s downwardly revised 900 jobs gain remained the same, and these companies have now increased their employee numbers by 9.04 percent since February, 2020.

The medicines subsector containing vaccines didn’t perform nearly as robustly in February, but still grew jobs by 800. January’s initially reported 500 employment increase and December’s downwardly revised 2,000 expansion remained the same. The vaccine industry workforce is now 23.05 percent larger than in February, 2020.

The aviation cluster enjoyed a good hiring month in February, too. Jobs in the aircaft industry, dominated by Boeing and companies in its supply chain, rose by 500 – the best since the identical total in November. January’s initially reported downturn of 800 and December’s decrease of 400 remained unrevised. Aircraft employment is still off by 11.57 percent since February, 2020.

Makers of aircraft engines and engine parts expanded their workforces by 900 during February, and although January’s initially reported hiring figures were downgraded, the estimate went only from 1,000 to 900. December’s upwardly revised employment increase of 700 was unrevised, all of which helped these companies bring their payrolls to within 13.20 percent of their February, 2020 levels.

Jobs prospects in the deeply depressed non-engine aircraft parts and equipment sector keep looking up, too. Employment improved by 200 in February, and January’s initially reported job growth of 500 was revised all the way up to 1,500. December’s jobs losses stayed at 900, and although these industries’ headcounts are still 16.35 percent below February, 2020’s, that’s better than the 17.30 percent shortfall calculable last month.

Continuing headwinds are still imaginable for domestic manufacturing – like a dramatic escalation of the fighting in Ukraine (which could greatly heat up inflationary pressures and foster even greater Federal Reserve efforts to slow economic growth); a new CCP Virus variant that’s not only more infectious but more deadly; and more big China lockdowns that could further screw up global supply chains. But given the recent actual record, it’s even easier to imagine manufacturing employment continuing to improve.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Steady as She Goes for U.S. Manufacturing Employment

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However disappointing America’s November economy-wide job creation was, the official U.S. statistics released this morning show that you shouldn’t blame the nation’s manufacturers. Although total non-farm payrolls (NFP – the domestic employment universe of the U.S. Labor Department, which tracks these trends) advanced sequentially by a modest 210,000 (the worst such figure since last December’s 306,000 monthly loss), U.S.-based industry added a solid 31,000 net new positions. And revisions of the previous few months strong numbers were revised downward only moderately.

Speaking of revisions, it’s especially important today to note that the new NFP statistics are still preliminary – and will be for two more months. It’s especially important because recently – and no doubt largely due to the unprecedentedly weird nature of the CCP Virus-era U.S. economy – revisions have been enormous. For example, August’s initially reported NFP increase was just 235,000. Since then, it’s been upgraded all the way up to 483,000. The first September result – 194,000 – is now judged to be 379,000. So there’s no reason yet to conclude that the national economic sky is falling, or even changing much.

At first glance, based on this preliminary November data, manufacturing’s latest monthly employment performance slightly trailed that of the rest of the economy.

As of last month, including the revisions, industry has regained 1.132 million (or 81.73 percent) of the 1.385 million jobs it lost during the worst of the pandemic-induced recession in spring of 2020. So the manufacturing employment recovery improved by 1.53 percent on month.

The private sector overall as of November has now regained 18.376 million of the 21.353 million jobs it shed during peak CCP Virus. That 86.06 percent figure is 1.76 percent higher than October’s.

And the total non-farm sector has now recovered 18.450 million of the 22.362 million jobs it lost during that pandemic-triggered downturn. The resulting 82.50 percent mark is 1.60 percent better than October’s.

But don’t forget – manufacturing’s jobs decline during that terrible spring of 2020 was smaller proportionately than that of the private or non-farm sectors. So even though it’s had less ground to make up, U.S.-based industry has been creating new employment at nearly the pace of the economy as a whole.

November’s manufacturing jobs improvement was also noteworthy because it took place despite job losses of 10,100 in the automotive sector – which accounted for more than 40 percent of October’s advances. In fact, automotive revisions also accounted for 70 percent of the downgrading of that overall manufacturing October monthly manufacturing jobs improvement (from 60,000 to 48,000).

Other important November manufacturing job losers in the larger categories monitored by the Labor Department were computer and electronics products, which contains semiconductors, and which saw employment drop by 1,300 (its worst monthly decline since the 4,900 recorded in July, 2020); and – at least as troublingly, machinery. That latter industry, whose products are used throughout manufacturing and big non-manufacturing industries like agriculture and construction, shed 6,000 positions. That was its biggest month’s worth of job losses since the 861,000 disaster during the dark days of April, 2020.

These losses leave computer and electronics employment levels just 0.85 percent higher than just before the pandemic began distorting the American economy (in February, 2020) and machinery employment levels 2.63 percent lower.

November’s big manufacturing jobs winners were topped by the miscellaneous durable goods sector – which includes the major CCP Virus-related medical goods. Its payrolls surged by 10,000 – the most since July, 2020, during the first post- pandemic economic bounce, when they soared by 15,000. The fabricated metals products industry generated a 7,900 payroll jump that was its biggest since March’s 10,100. Food products added 7,400 employees for its best gain since August, 2020’s 19,000. Miscellaneous non-durable goods manufacturing was up 3,500. And electrical equipment and appliances’ payrolls grew by 3,300.

As always, the most detailed employment data for pandemic-related industries is one month behind those in the broader categories, and their October job creation was generally solid.

On the disappointing side was the surgical appliances and supplies sector. This industry contains personal protective equipment and similar goods, and the miscellaneous durable goods sector in which it’s been classified saw employment rise by a respectable 2,900 sequentially in October. But only 100 of these new positions came in the surgical appliances and supplies sub-sector. At the same time, September’s initially reported 900 jobs increase was revised up to 1,300, so maybe October will be a statistical blip – assuming of course that it’s not substantially revised, too. And as of October, payrolls in this sector have climbed by 8.27 percent over their immediate pre-CCP Virus February, 2020 levels – compared with the 7.79 percent calculable from the previous jobs report.

The overall pharmaceuticals and medicines industry performed better, with payrolls swelling by 1,500 in October. Still, September’s initially reported jobs rise of 1,500 was revised down to 1,200. Therefore, employment in these sectors now stands 5.49 percent higher than in February, 2020 – better than the 4.62 percent calculable last month.

The medicines subsector containing vaccines expanded employment by 700 in October – down from September’s 1,700, but better than August’s 400. These results mean that this industry’s workforce is now 13.25 percent larger than in February, 2020.

U.S. aerospace giant Boeing’s manufacturing and safety problems have depressed employment in aircraft production along with the pandemic’s restrictions on travel, and payrolls improved by just 300 on month in October following an unrevised drop of 500 in September. But help may be on the way, with China having just decided that its troubled 737 Max model has passed safety inspections and may return to the China market after a two-year ban that greatly reduced the company’s – and overall U.S. – exports.

So although the American aircraft industry’s workforce in October was still 8.12 percent smaller than it was just before the CCP Virus era (down from the 8.24 percent shrinkage calculable last month), look for the sector to start closing the gap meaningfully.

Good news sure could be used by the U.S. aircraft engines and engine parts industry. In October, its employment dipped by 100, and September’s initially reported jobs gain of 600 has been downgraded to 400. This sector’s workforce is now down 13.82 percent since immediate pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 – more than the 13.49 percent calculable last month.

The situation in non-engine aircraft parts and equipment was a good deal better. It grew payrolls by just 100 in October, but September’s initually reported jobs increase of 900 is now pegged at 1,200 – the best such performance since April, 2008. Consequently, whereas employment in this sector as of last month’s data was 15.82 percent less than in February, 2020, the figure is now 15.48 percent.

A significant Boeing comeback would add to the tailwinds identifiable behind the manufacturing jobs scene at this time. Others of course are the expected continued strong growth of the entire economy, a possibly stronger recovery globally, an easing of the supply chain crisis, the prospect of infrastructure bill money starting to be spent, and the seemingly shrinking odds that manufacturers and other U.S.-based businesses will face significant tax increases related to the Biden administration’s Build Back Better legislation.

Not that clouds are gone from the scene completely. Inflation seems to be picking up (although so far, and by the same token, manufacturers in toto have been able to pass on price increases to business and household customers). A defeat or postponement of Build Back Better will reduce the amount of government stimulus supporting consumer spending – and if the Federal Reserve follows through with its decision to start cutting back on some of its own stimulus, contractionary forces will strengthen. And of course there’s the virus wild card that’s just appeared in the form of the Omicron variant.

Still, the tailwinds now seem more impressive than the clouds, so I’m still optimistic about the future of manufacturing’s jobs recovery.