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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Encouraging Brexit Lessons for the United States

20 Wednesday Apr 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in (What's Left of) Our Economy

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Brexit, China, decoupling, European Union, Eurozone, Financial Times, France, Germany, IMF, International Monetary Fund, United Kingdom, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Some awfully interesting evidence supporting my view (see, e.g., here) that the United States is uniquely positioned in the world to prosper quite nicely from seeking to maximize its already high degree of economic self-sufficiency has just emerged — and from some awfully unlikely sources.

It’s indirect evidence, to be sure, and concerns the United Kingdom’s (UK) economic perfomance since the Brexit referendum of 2016 that mandated its pull-out from the European Union. But it’s relevant to the United States’ situation because the U.S. economy is far more actually and potentially self-sufficient.

The evidence – from the ardently globalist International Monetary Fund (IMF) and from the just-as-ardently anti-Brexit Financial Times – makes clear that since the UK finally left the EU at the end of January, 2020, it’s gross domestic product (GDP – the standard measure of a national economy’s size), has not only risen about as fast as those of the major members of the EU, but that it’s closed the gap that existed pre-withdrawal. And all the while, the UK has reaped a crucial benefit – much more control over its future.

The IMF evidence came in today’s release of its World Economic Outlook – a twice yearly Fund publication that surveys the state of the globe and includes growth forecasts for major countries, geographic regions, and formal groupings of countries like the eurozone (which overlaps pretty thoroughly with the EU).

According to the Fund, last year, the UK economy expanded by 7.4 percent in inflation-adjusted terms (the most closely monitored gauge of growth). The figure for the countries using the euro as their currency? A mere 5.4 percent. And it’s not like the lagging eurozone performance was dragged down by its long-time economic laggards. Germany’s real 2021 growth was a measly 2.8 percent, and France’s much better seven percent still trailed the UK’s.

In other words, a single country that’s cut itself off from all the alleged benefits of economic integration with a much larger market had out-grown the collective members of that market that presumably were enjoying all the economic advantages of such integration.

Moreover, the IMF’s latest projection for this year crowns the UK as a growth winner, too. Its 2022 price-adjusted GDP is forecast to improve by 3.7 percent, versus 2.8 percent for the euro area. The French after-inflation growth rate is expected to top the UK’s slightly (2.9 percent), but Germany’s will be stuck at a lowly 2.1 percent.

The only solace Brexit-haters can take from the IMF analysis is that the UK supposedly will fall way behind growth-wise next year. Its real GDP performance is pegged at a mere 1.2 percent – slower than that of the euro area (2.3 percent), France (a not-so-impressive 1.4 percent), and Germany (a respectable 2.7 percent, but a performance coming off an unusually low baseline). Yet needless to say, it’s much more reasonable to put more stock in near-term predictions and longer-term predictions.

In addition, even with this possible slowdown, the Financial Times graph below (taken from this article) shows that, despite its glass-half-empty title, if the IMF is right about 2022, the UK will have turned itself from a growth laggard in 2019 compared with France and Germany to a growth equal. And although the 2023 projections are tough to see in this graphic, they show near parity among the three.

Line chart of GDP index: 2019=100 showing the UK’s economic performance since coronavirus has been middling

Two qualifications to these findings need to be made. First, as I’ve repeatedly noted, all economic data for the last few years has been dramatically affected and surely distorted by the CCP Virus pandemic. Second, although the UK left the EU, it still does business with the bloc and its economic ties with the rest of the world stayed the same organizationally.

At the same time, for years after the referendum vote, businesses in the UK had been dealing with major uncertainties and the inevitable short-term costs of the negotiations over Brexit’s precise withdrawal procedures and terms. And the growth figures make obvious that, on the whole, they and the entire economy have managed to navigate them successfully.

And if the UK has so far emerged successfully from its Brexit-style decoupling from the EU, it’s hard to imagine that the much more economically diverse United States can’t emerge from a much more determined decoupling from China – which will promote vital and intertwined economic and national security interests – at least as well.

Im-Politic: A Labor Shortage Story Short on the Facts

25 Saturday Sep 2021

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Im-Politic

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Bloomberg.com, Boris Johnson, Brexit, editing, European Union, globalism, Im-Politic, Immigration, Joe Mayes, journalism, labor shortages, media bias, Open Borders, truck drivers, truckers, trucking, United Kingdom

Is Bloomberg.com trying to make yours truly look good? It certainly seems that way. Exactly two days after I wrote that American journalism has long been suffering from an editing crisis (and subjecting readers and viewers to a flood of ineptly reported and reasoned articles, posts, and broadcast segments), this news site ran a piece illustrating perfectly two of this so-called profession’s biggest (and intimately related) flaws: pushing narratives largely by ignoring information that provides crucial context.

The lead paragraph tells you all you need to know where Joe Mayes’ September 22 story was going (and where he and his editors believed it should go): “The red lines of Boris Johnson’s Brexit project are starting to crack as voters face growing shortages of food and fuel, as well as a marked rise in living costs.”

As the second paragraph elaborated, “Despite riding to power on a Brexit campaign that pledged to cut immigration from the European Union, the prime minister [Johnson] and his cabinet are now preparing for what would be a significant and politically damaging U-turn: Tapping those same EU workers to plug the labor shortages crippling parts of the U.K. supply chain.” And “the most immediate and pressing concern”? “A major shortage of truck drivers.”

What could be more revealing – and embarrassing for supporters of the United Kingdom’s 2016 decision to leave the European Union (in large part to gain more national control over immigration inflows)? Immigrants from the same EU are now being recognized even by the Leaver-in-Chief as that country’s last hope for staving off starvation, freezing to death this winter, and raging inflation.

No question Brexit was a landmark decision, and no doubt there were plenty of valid reasons to be skeptical (as the close 2016 referendum results indicate). But this Bloomberg piece plainly suggests that the countries that have decided to remain in the EU literally have truckers to spare the British.

Which insinuates that the Brexiteers deserve to have insult added to injury. Except this story line is a crock. As an internet search that took me mere minutes revealed, there’s lots of info out there making clear that truck driver shortages are a global problem – that is, they’re not limited to countries that left the EU. Indeed, this industry website reports that trucking companies in Europe are expecting a 17 percent driver shortfall this year.

Further, the survey it’s based on found that any number of steps could be taken by trucking companies and governments in shortage-afflicted countries to increase driver supply without importing foreigners. Like raising pay. Like lowering the training age to encourage more young people to replace retiring truckers (a big problem in a sector with an aging workforce). Like creating safer parking areas, which would be especially helpful in attacting more women into the business. (They currently make up only two percent of drivers globally, according to the survey.)

In fact, finding such ;material is so easy that it raises the question of whether the main problem (and all the others I’ve spotlighted on RealityChek – e.g., here) doesn’t reflect simply a competence crisis. It also reflects a bias crisis, with the target being any measures or information that clash with longstanding globalist orthodoxies – in this case, Open Borders- friendly policies on the immigration and labor shortage fronts.

Making News: National Media Coverage for RealityChek’s Views on the China Trade Deal…& More!

14 Saturday Dec 2019

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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Boris Johnson, Brexit, China, European Union, IndustryToday.com, Making News, Market Wrap with Moe Ansari, Marketwatch.com, NAFTA, North American Free Frade Agreement, Phase One, Trade, trade deal, U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, United Kingdom, USMCA

I’m pleased to announce that my views on the new U.S.-China “Phase One” trade deal have just come out via some national media organizations.

First, yesterday’s post arguing that the agreement doesn’t cut the mustard when it comes to advancing U.S. interests was re-posted on the widely read Marketwatch.com website.  Here’s the link.

Second, I was interviewed yesterday on the subject on the nationally syndicated radio show “Market Wrap with Moe Ansari.”  Click here for the link to the podcast.  My segment starts right about the 27-minute mark.  And special bonus!  We also discussed the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA) that replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the reelection of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom – which surely makes the country’s departure from the European Union (“Brexit”) are certainty.

In addition, my December 11 RealityChek report on the disappointing performance of the inflation-adjusted wages earned by Americans during the Trump years was re-posted on the IndustryToday.com website.  Click here to see it.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: On Israeli TV, “Jersey Joe” Piscopo Radio…& More!

16 Tuesday Oct 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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AM 970 The Answer, Breitbart.com, Brexit, i24News, Making News, retailers, stock market, The Joe Piscopo Show, Trade, U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, USMCA

I’m pleased to report several recent media appearances.

Last night, I was interviewed on Israel’s i24News TV network on what could be the decisive stage in negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom over Brexit – the latter’s decision to leave the former.  Unfortunately, i24News doesn’t make streaming videos of its content available gratis.

Yesterday morning, I appeared on The Joe Piscopo Show on New York City’s AM 970 The Answer radio.  Since I only found out about this opportunity in the wee hours that morning (don’t ask!) I couldn’t send out a pre-program alert, but a podcast is available here.

Scroll down to the link naming me, click the play button, and if you want to skip to my segment, drag the thingamajig along the bottom to the 40-minute mark.  You’ll hear a discussion that ranged from the stock market’s recent gyrations to the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada [Trade] Agreement to the troubles of American retailers.

And on Thursday, October 11, Breitbart.com featured my finding that metals-using industries in the United States were defying all expectations that they’d start hemorrhaging jobs due to the Trump steel and aluminum tariffs – not to mention refuting numerous news reports claiming that these jobs were already being shed.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Video of Thom Hartmann Interview on Brexit

31 Friday Mar 2017

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Uncategorized

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Tags

Brexit, Making News, RT America, The Big icture with Thom Hartmann, Thom Hartmann

I’m pleased to report that the video is now on-line of my interview on RT America’s “The Big Picture with Thom Hartmann” on the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union.  Click on this link for a great discussion between Thom and me on where “Brexit” leaves both the British and the Continent, and what this potentially momentous break-up might mean for Americans and the world strategically and economically.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Back on with Thom Hartmann Tonight – Talking Brexit!

30 Thursday Mar 2017

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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Tags

Brexit, European Union, Making News, Populism, RT America, The Big Picture with Thom Hartmann, Thom Hartmann, United Kingdom

I’m pleased to announce that I’m slated to appear tonight on RT America’s “The Big Picture with Thom Hartmann” tonight. The segment, which is scheduled to begin at 7 PM EST, will deal with Brexit – the United Kingdom’s fateful decision to leave the European Union – and what it might mean for politics and populism in the United States and around the world.

Watch on your home cable or satellite system, or live on-line at this link. For those who can’t tune in, I’ll be posting a link to the streaming video as soon as one’s available.

And keep checking in at RealityChek for news of media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Featured in Yahoo News, Lifezette.com, and Tire Business!

07 Thursday Jul 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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2016 election, Brexit, Donald Trump, Lifezette.com, Making News, NAFTA, Rick Newman, Tire Business, Trade, Yahoo News

I’m pleased to announce three more appearances in major news outlets in the last few days.

On Tuesday, an article in the manufacturing trade publication Tire Business featured my views on the economic impact of the British vote to leave the European Union.  Click on this link to read  it.

Rick Newman’s June 29 Yahoo News article purporting to show “What Donald Trump gets wrong about NAFTA” was largely based on a lengthy interview with me.  As a result, as you can see here, his piece wound up describing a great deal that the presumptive Republican presidential nominee gets right on trade policy.

Also on June 29, a Lifezette.com post presented my views on the state of the Trump campaign, and my argument that the candidate could win the White House if he keeps focused on substantive issues like the economy.  Here’s the link.

Keep checking back at RealityChek for more news on recent and upcoming media and related appearances!

Im-Politic: Trump Re-Brands “America First”

28 Tuesday Jun 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Im-Politic

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

2016 election, America First, Brexit, chattering classes, China, Donald Trump, Im-Politic, isolationism, Larry Summers, NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement, offshoring, protectionism, Trade, World War II

OK, Donald Trump has just given a long-awaited speech outlining his global trade policy. Not that his overall inclinations haven’t long been clear. And earlier in the campaign, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee put out an impressively detailed China trade position paper.

But since most of his other remarks have consisted of generalities (i.e., he’d make great deals), and have often been expressed in the form of off-the-cuff answers to reporters’ questions (as with his contradictory statements on tariffing Chinese imports), a comprehensive description of a global approach containing at least some specifics was unquestionably needed.  And given the trouble Trump encountered due to his latest bombastic comments about so-called “Mexican judges” and the like, the timing couldn’t have been better for a shot of gravitas.  

Although it wasn’t the speech I would have written for him, it should be clear to any fair-minded observer that Trump passed this test with flying colors. In fact, he just gave by far the best speech on trade more broadly that Americans have heard – at least since the current, offshoring-focused era of U.S. trade policy-making was launched in the early 1990s by adding Mexico to an existing American agreement with Canada and creating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Granted, the bar for recent trade speeches is rock-bottom low. And the negatives of Trump’s deserve considerable attention – and will receive it tomorrow. But one positive worth pointing out immediately: Trump has gone toward putting a positive stamp on the slogan “America First.”

There’s no doubt that his political opponents in the chattering classes, as well as more even-handed journalists, will mindlessly keep regurgitating the mantra that these were the watchwords of the isolationist movement that they blame in part for the outbreak of World War II. But there’s also no reasonable doubt that Trump provided a re-branding of this motto inspiring enough to resonate powerfully and favorably both in the ranks of his supporters and among undecided voters in the working and middle classes.

As Trump declared, his version of America First entails the American people taking “back control of their economy, politics and borders” and choosing “to believe in America.”

He continued, “We lost our way when we stopped believing in our country. America became the world’s dominant economy by becoming the world’s dominant producer.

“The wealth this created was shared broadly, creating the biggest middle class the world had ever known.”

“But then America changed its policy from promoting development in America, to promoting development in other nations.”

To be sure,Trump blamed foreign countries that engage in predatory trade practices for the devastation suffered by much of America’s manufacturing base and workforce. But he also singled out “a [US] leadership class that worships globalism over Americanism.”

And he closed the address with a veritably Reagan-esque flourish:

“On trade, on immigration, on foreign policy, we are going to put America First again.

“We are going to make America wealthy again.

“We are going to reject Hillary Clinton’s politics of fear, futility, and incompetence.

“We are going to embrace the possibilities of change.

“It is time to believe in the future.

“It is time to believe in each other.

“It is time to Believe In America.

“This Is How We Are Going To Make America Great Again – For All Americans.

“We Are Going To Make America Great Again For Everyone – Greater Than Ever Before.”

In fact, there are signs in the post-Brexit world that even sophisticates are at least approaching this bandwagon. According to one leading establishmentarian, writing as the British vote totals were coming in, “The political challenge in many countries going forward is to develop a ‘responsible nationalism”. It is clear that there is a hunger on the part of electorates, if not the Davos set within countries, for approaches to policy that privilege local interests and local people over more cosmopolitan concerns.”

Translated into plain English: No less than former Clinton Treasury Secretary and top Obama economic adviser Larry Summers is going America First.

Making News: Featured in IndustryWeek, Lifezette.com and More!

27 Monday Jun 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Brexit, IndustryWeek, Lifezette.com, Making News, Zacks.com

I’m pleased to announce three more appearances in major news outlets in the last few days.

Last Friday, as the fallout of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote was spreading, IndustryWeek published a key excerpt from my RealityChek post that morning outlining some initial thoughts on the post-Brexit world.  Click on this link to read it.

Also last Friday, my views were featured in a Lifezette.com post on a new study claiming that Donald Trump’s election as president would be economically disastrous for America.  Here’s the link.

And on June 16, the Zacks.com finance website spotlighted a tweet of mine on bizarre comments from Alibaba CEO Jack Ma on the outstanding quality of the counterfeit goods so easily available at the e-commerce platform.  You can read it at this link.

Keep checking back at RealityChek for more news on recent and upcoming media and related appearances!

 

 

Im-Politic: The Establishment Keeps Doubling Down Against Populism

26 Sunday Jun 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Im-Politic

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

2016 election, American politics, Ben Domenech, Bernie Sanders, Brexit, Donald Trump, establishment, Im-Politic, Jonathan Rauch, Populism, special interests, The Atlantic, The Federalist, think tanks, United Kingdom

Brexit underscores the belief that I have expressed throughout this presidential campaign cycle that opponents of the populist wave breaking all over the high income world have two basic choices: They can demonize the populists and their champions, or they can propose policies capable of addressing constructively the legitimate grievances of these voters. A lengthy article just posted on The Atlantic‘s website adds to the evidence that the American political establishment has overwhelmingly opted for choice number one.

Author Jonathan Rauch makes clear in his title how he interprets the rise of anti-establishment candidates like presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and unexpectedly strong Democratic challenger Bernie Sanders: “How American Politics Went Insane.” His explanation: Well-intentioned reformers across the nation’s ideological spectrum went way overboard in removing the flaws in the formal and informal political systems that on balance served the United States well for decades, and wound up proverbially throwing out the baby with the bath water.

Rauch is certainly correct in pointing out that various recent changes mandated in U.S. politics have backfired, or at the least had damaging unintended consequences. He’s also correct in noting that the results have too often strengthened extremist impulses and weakened their moderate counterparts.

But the author is completely off-base in claiming that all would be set right if the nation only recognized the dangers of the transparency and openness in government it’s insisted on, and resolved to return to the days when “institutions and brokers—political parties, career politicians, and congressional leaders and committees…historically held politicians accountable to one another and prevented everyone in the system from pursuing naked self-interest all the time.”

As these intermediaries’ influence fades,” Rauch continues, “politicians, activists, and voters all become more individualistic and unaccountable. The system atomizes. Chaos becomes the new normal—both in campaigns and in the government itself.”

Ben Domenech of The Federalist has written a wonderful takedown of Rauch’s establishmentarian bias. Especially devastating is his observation that the practitioners of “insider politics” – including “influence peddlers,” other types of “middle men,” and particularly the wealthy, entrenched special interests they served – used the system to enrich and empower themselves even further. In the process, of course, they left more and more of their compatriots on the outs.

Domenech could have gone even further, however, and pointed out that the author’s establishmentarian bias is actually self-serving. After all, Rauch is not only a regular contributor to establishment publications The Atlantic and National Journal. He’s a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a mainstay of a Washington, D.C. think tank world that, as I’ve written, has turned into a dedicated “idea laundering” machine – advancing the policy preferences of its corporate and other one-percent-er funders by cloaking them in quasi-academic, objective-looking garb.

But Domenech’s dispositive argument entails Rauch’s almost complete neglect of substance. Domenech calls Rauch’s thesis “bereft of data and thoroughly at odds with the data we have.” I’d emphasize the converse: Rauch is almost completely process-oriented – which of course reflects the establishment worldview that the major, strategic issues are all being handled just splendidly, and that the only remaining questions concern some mechanics.

Domenech does a nice job of listing the substantive establishment failures Rauch glosses over: in addition to Vietnam and Watergate, “Impeachment. 9/11. Iraq. Katrina. Congressional corruption. Financial meltdown….Stagnant wages.” (Domenech also includes Obamacare and the president’s “failed stimulus,” but in my view, those cases are far from screamingly obvious.)

It’s true that Rauch, and his defenders, can point out that for all those troubles and even crises, the United States is still chugging along, and that the vast majority of its citizens enjoy living standards that remain the envy of most of the rest of humanity. At the same time, it’s crucial to remember how many immense built-in advantages the United States has always enjoyed, including generally friendly and, more important, weak, neighbors; abundant natural resources; and a national creed that has encouraged wealth creation and equal opportunity (however often the latter has been absent for major groups).

That is, the United States remains immensely difficult to damage fatally both geopolitically and economically. In fact, given the record cited above – and the crucial policy mistakes were supported by mainstream Democrats and Republicans alike – the most important question raised by this year’s American political tumult arguably isn’t it’s reached such proportions. It’s what took so long.

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Current Thoughts on Trade

Terence P. Stewart

Protecting U.S. Workers

Marc to Market

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Alastair Winter

Chief Economist at Daniel Stewart & Co - Trying to make sense of Global Markets, Macroeconomics & Politics

Smaulgld

Real Estate + Economics + Gold + Silver

Reclaim the American Dream

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Mickey Kaus

Kausfiles

David Stockman's Contra Corner

Washington Decoded

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Upon Closer inspection

Keep America At Work

Sober Look

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Credit Writedowns

Finance, Economics and Markets

GubbmintCheese

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

New Economic Populist

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

George Magnus

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

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