Im-Politic: Georgia Evidence that Trump-ism Needs to Transcend Trump

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CCP Virus, conservatives, coronavirus, COVID 19, Covid relief, election 2020, election integrity, establishment Republicans, Georgia, Georgia Senate runoff, GOP, Im-Politic, Populism, Republicans, Trump, Wuhan virus

Good luck to anyone (including me!) in trying to figure out what the results of yesterday’s Georgia Senate runoff elections will mean for American politics – especially since there are so many reasons to waffle, and lots of them are very compelling. For example, although as of this morning, it looks like a Democratic sweep, but because the margins are so close, and non-trivial numbers of military and other mail-in ballots won’t be counted until 5 PM EST Friday, the final verdict may not be known until Friday. Largely as a result, recounts are practically certain.

In addition, so much about this entire national election cycle was unusual, and not at all sure to cast long shadows – especially the CCP Virus pandemic and its damaging economic consequences. As a result, on top of events’ impressive abilities to throw curveballs, it’s intimidating to try predicting two years out (when the 2022 midterm elections will be held) much less the outcome of the 2024 presidential and congressional races.

Weirdly, however, despite these yawning uncertainties, today at least I’m feeling more confident about a big question I found tough to answer shortly after the election: whether it’s best for the kind of Trump-ian populist policies I generally support strongly for the President to run for reelection the next time around, or call his political career quits.

Many of my reasons for equivocation still matter greatly. But the passage of two months, and particulary the apparent Democratic Georgia victories, have now convinced me that both Trumpers and therefore country will better off if with Trump-ism without Trump. And even though America’s pollsters overall still need to work hard to get their acts together and rebuild their reputations, it’s been the Georgia Senate exit polls that have mainly tipped me into the anti-Trump column, and two sets of findings in particular.

Several of these surveys are available; I’m using the one conducted by Fox News and the Associated Press because it featured what I regard as more of the most pertinent questions. As for the two sets of findings?

First, it’s clear that Georgia voters back the kind of unorthodox mix of policies that have marked Trump-ist economics. For example, by a whopping 72 percent to seven percent margin, respondents said Congress is doing “too little,” rather than “too much” to help the “financial situation” of “individual Americans” during the CCP Virus crisis. (Twenty-one percent credited Congress with doing “about the right amount.”) This sounds like a strong endorsement of the President’s (last-minute) call for $2,000 virus relief checks, and equally strong disagreement with the opposition of most traditional Republican politicians.

Ratings of Congress’ efforts to help small businesses were nearly identical to the individuals’ results. By 52 percent to 28 percent, however, these Georgia voters felt that Congress was providing “large corporations” with too much rather than too little support. (Twenty-eight percent viewed these efforts as about right.)

Yet by an almost-as-impressive two-to-one, respondents favored “reducing government regulation of business.” Nothing was asked about one of Mr. Trump’s signature issues – trade – but with China so deeply and increasingly unpopular among Americans, it’s tough to imagine that most Georgians would object to his tariffs and other crackdowns on Beijing’s economic predation. Immigration is a tougher call. Only four percent viewed it as “the most important issue facing the country,” but answers to this question understandably were dominated by “the coronavirus pandemic” (43 percent) and “the economy and jobs” (27 percent).

All told, though, these Georgians look like they’d be entirely comfortable with at least much of Trump-ism. But the President himself? Not nearly so much. Thus:

>Mr. Trump himself earned 51 percent-to-47 percent unfavorable ratings from the sample, which consisted of 52 percent Republicans or Republican-leaners, 42 percent Democrats or Democratic-leaners, and seven percent Independents; and 43 percent self-described conservatives, 34 percent moderates, and 23 percent liberals.

>The greater concerns expressed above about the CCP Virus than about its economic consequences clashes with the President’s clear priorities over the last year.

>Indeed, they also endorsed mandatory mask-wearing outside of the home by 74 percent to 26 percent. 

>Moreover, by 62 percent to 38 percent, respondents expressed confidence that, nation-wide, November’s presidential votes “were counted accurately” (with 56 percent “very confident”) and by 61 percent to 39 percent, they think Joe Biden “was legitimately elected president.”

>Therefore, Mr. Trump’s handling “of the results of the 2020 presidential election” were disapproved by a 56 percent to 44 percent margin.

And more signs that the President himself turned off many Georgia runoff voters – especially with his election challenges: According to the RealClearPolitics averages, as his protests of the presidential votes continued, both Georgia Democratic Senate candidates, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock gained momentum at the expense of their Republican (incumbent) opponents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, respectively.

None of this is to say that creating a politically successful Trump-less Trump-ism will be easy. As I wrote right after the presidential vote, the President’s charisma-based ability to excite a large mass of voters is not yet remotely matched in Republican ranks. Yet the Georgia runoff results strike me as more evidence that his disruptive instincts represent a growing liability, and Mr. Trump’s insistence that he was the actual 2020 winner virtually rules out the chance that he’ll change spots that he obviously believes won him both election and reelection.

Right now, therefore, it seems clear that, as someone wrote someplace yesterday (unfortunately, I can’t find the quote), Republicans can’t win with Trump, and they can’t win without him.

Yet going forward, I suspect that two truths will begin weakening the President’s support. First, the fact that (as I’ve seen first-hand during my working life), the founders of movements tend to be lousy managers and sustainers of those movements. Second, any movement so heavily dependent on a single personality won’t likely be a lasting movement. So for those reasons, along with the Mr. Trump’s age, the sooner his supporters and leaners can choose a successor, or identify a group of plausible successors, the better.

But don’t think for a minute that I’m highly confident that this transition can take place in time for the 2024 campaign cycle’s kickoff. In fact, I am highly confident that the process will be loud and heated and messy – that is, pretty Trump-y.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: How to Bypass Washington on CCP Virus Relief

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Americans for Tax Fairness, billionaires, CCP Virus, Congress, coronavirus, COVID 19, Covid relief, Institute for Policy Studies, stimulus, super-rich, woke capitalism, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

It’s getting pretty clear that, even if the various anti-CCP Virus vaccines started getting stuck into Americans’ arms right away, many in the United States would be facing major financial hardships for many months because Congress and the administration still can’t get their act together to pass a meaningful relief bill.

My own hunch is that pretty full normality will return for most of the country by the end of next year. Through then, however, and afterwards, the personal service-oriented businesses big and small in particular that employ so many Americans in relatively low paying jobs will struggle to return to business- and employment-as usual. Moreover, continued budget crises in many states and localities could result in both significant, lasting layoffs of government workers, and big and equally lasting cuts in the social services needed by the needy.

Luckily, thanks to the work of the progressive organizations Americans for Tax Fairness (AFT) and the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) a very promising bandaid has come into view: stimulus checks written voluntarily by America’s billionaires.

These two groups want the funds to be generated by an “emergency wealth tax on billionaire profiteers,” but there’s no reason to believe that such a measure would pass the Senate, assuming it turned Democratic. And even the House might balk, given that the Democrats’ majority will be so narrow.

There’s nothing, however, stopping the billionaires – who AFT and IPS say number 651 – getting together and furnishing such assistance on their own. Distribution could be handled just as official Washington handled the previous $1,200 checks.  Or the billionaires could set up their own system. (Maybe through Amazon and Fedex and other delivery companies?)

These funds won’t cure everything that will keep ailing Americans and their economy for the foreseeable future. But the effects would be considerable.

Specifically, if the 651 came up with the $3,000 per check recommended by the two organizations for every inhabitant of the country, the total 330 million U.S. population would receive a total of just under $1 trillion. That sum would represent a big fraction of the $3.5 trillion in federal budget resources and tax relief signed into law this year so far. And it’s somewhat bigger than the $908 billion framework for a compromise package put forward by a bipartisan group of Senators earlier this month.

Moreover, the uber-rich themselves could clearly afford this spending. AFT and IPS estimate that the billionaire class has increased its net worth by $1 trillion since the pandemic reached the United States. And its members would still be left with $3 trillion in assets.

In addition, unlike a big emergency wealth tax increase – a cash cow that government would be reluctant to repeal, at least in full, once normality returns – the billionaires’ check-writing would be a one-off measure, intended to help Americans keep their heads above water while the economy remains in extreme distress.

At the same time, if the pandemic emergency lasts longer than expected (e.g., because vaccine immunity doesn’t last as long as widely assumed), nothing would prevent the billionaires from coming to the (partial) rescue again, at whatever scale they chose. Even better – the 651 could also reach out to the somewhat less super-rich and urge them to lend a hand as well. It’s not like they’re without influence, and are unfamiliar with peer pressure – or outright arm-twisting.

Further, not only would the general politics of tax increases be avoided by privatizing virus relief. All the other conflicting priorities and legislative shenanigans that have held up progress on this particular package would be bypassed altogether, too – like CCP Virus liability insurance for business and bailouts for allegedly spendthrift state and local governments. And of course, no deficit hawks (phony or genuine) inside or outside government could object, since no public funds would be spent.

The one important objection I can think of is that billionaire action on this scale could convince politicians that they’re off the virus-relief hook for good. But it’s also possible that a privately financed aid package could shame collective Washington into subsequent needed action. In fact, this would be a great lobbying cause for the billionaires – along with threats to withhold campaign contributions from lawmakers or Presidents they’ve identified as obstacles.

The American super-rich haven’t blown off their fellow compatriots entirely during the pandemic. And of course, they’re major contributors to many non-CCP Virus-related good causes as well. But from what’s publicly known, their pandemic-related donations has been astonishingly meager, and their records seem Scrooge-ier still given how they’ve greatly they’ve become enriched collectively during the crisis.

Given the rise of “woke capitalism” in recent years, and the corporate world’s embrace – at least rhetorically – of social responsibility, it’s obvious that America’s super-rich fear they have a serious image problem. It’s hard to think of a better way to improve their standing than by springing to their compatriots’ rescue at a time of such dire need.