(What’s Left of) Our Economy: “Tariff Victim” US Industries Remain Full of Job Openings

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business, China, durable goods, employers, job openings, Jobs, JOLTS, labor shortages, manufacturing, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, private sector, quits, tariffs, Trade, Trump, workers, {What's Left of) Our Economy

If today’s government data on U.S. jobs openings don’t prompt loud mea culpas and apologies from the tariff-alarmists in the Mainstream Media and elsewhere in America’s globalization cheerleading establishment, I don’t know what will.

Recall that Americans have been swamped in recent months with reports that President Trump’s trade curbs have already been decimating American manufacturing.  And since they have been in place the longest, his metals tariffs (on most steel and aluminum imports) have been treated as prime examples, with metals-using industries being the prime victims.

But the new figures on job openings in major sectors of the economy (contained in the latest monthly release of the “JOLTS” numbers – the “job openings and labor turnover series”) are simply the latest statistics thoroughly debunking these claims.

Here are the results for job openings from April (because the metals tariffs began to be imposed in late March) through September (the most recent month covered by the JOLTS reports):

private sector:     +2.30 percent

manufacturing:   +7.08 percent

durable goods:   +7.47 percent

As has been the case with so much other data, the durable goods super-sector of manufacturing – the portion of industry containing the biggest metals-using industries – outperformed the rest of manufacturing and the entire economy in the number of employment opportunities it claimed were available.

And although the number of job openings in durable goods dipped from August to September (whose figures are still preliminary), they fell much less than in the rest of the economy.

private sector:     -2.85 percent

manufacturing     -4.72 percent

durable goods     -0.66 percent

Moreover, the 302,000 durable goods jobs openings reported preliminarily in September were the second largest number on record (going back to late 2000). The all-time high? August’s 304,000.

Some critics maintain that employers have incentives to exaggerate their claims of job vacancies. The motives cited include reinforcing contentions of “skills gaps” and other forms of labor shortages; rationalizing the persistence of high unemployment rates or sluggish wage growth; and pushing government or schools to take on worker training responsibilities (and expenses) that employers are loathe to assume. It’s also easy to see how exaggerated job openings claims can be used to bolster arguments for more immigration – which of course is also a tempting strategy for keeping wages down by increasing labor supply relative to demand.

But even if such exaggeration is rife, why would it be so much more important in durable goods manufacturing than in the rest of the economy? Further, why would employers have any reason to overstate the number of vacancies they’re trying to fill if they believed that their businesses were being swamped by steep, tariffs-led costs increases, or were about to? Wouldn’t they be trying to shed payroll instead? As a result, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that the JOLTS openings numbers simply add to the evidence that, despite the claims of actual or impending tariffs-mageddon, metals-using industries continue to be faring just fine.

Interestingly, workers in durable goods sectors don’t appear to share this optimism fully, according to the JOLTS data. For the figures also measure the numbers of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs – a clear sign of confidence that lots of new opportunities are available. Here are are the April-through-September results:

private sector:     +8.53 percent

manufacturing:    -2.94 percent

durable goods:     -9.48 percent

Clearly, durable goods workers have been displaying less confidence about reemployment opportunities than their counterparts in the rest of manufacturing, and much less than private sector workers overall. And these results are mirrored in the August-to-September numbers:

private sector:     -1.26 percent

manufacturing:    -6.60 percent

durable goods:   -11.76 percent

Nonetheless, in absolute terms, all these quits levels – even for durable goods – remain pretty high by recent standards. And for durables, they’re somewhat volatile, possibly because the absolute numbers have always been on the small side. Indeed, durable goods quits increased by 6.19 percent month-to-month as recently as July. And the August-to-September drop-off was the biggest sequential decline in percentage terms since the 15.70 percent monthly nosedive in August, 2017 – after which the numbers of quits steadily recovered.

As always, these trends could change (or, with the quits rate) intensify. It’s also possible that the President’s more sweeping tariffs on imports from China will be game-changers. (The first round dates only from early July, and the second, much larger round, went into effect in mid-September.) For now, however, the only real news about the economic effect of these levies is that they’ve showed no signs of slowing the recovery’s current momentum. Accept no substitutes.

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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: More Terrible Data for…the Metals Tariffs Alarmists

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aluminum, durable goods, Jobs, manufacturing, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, Peanuts, Samuel Beckett, steel, tariffs, Trade, Trump, Waiting for Godot, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Remember Waiting for Godot? For those who haven’t read it, in a (very superficial) nutshell, Samuel Beckett’s 1953 existentialist masterpiece tells the story of two men who keep waiting for someone who never comes despite promises of his arrival that keep getting proved wrong. Think of the play as a world-class literary and philosophical version of the running Peanuts gag involving Lucy holding the football for a Charlie Brown place-kick.

Both Godot and Peanuts came to mind instantly this morning once I digested the new U.S. manufacturing jobs figures (for October). For as has been the case since late March, when President Trump began in imposing tariffs on metals imports, the job-creation performance of American metals-using industries once again defied the doomsayers by generally outperforming job-creation in the rest of domestic manufacturing, and in the U.S. private sector as a whole.

Here are the detailed numbers for October and September (which are still preliminary) and for August (which are now final – until the next major revision):

                                        through August     through September     through October

entire private sector:        +0.68 percent          +0.77 percent           +0.97 percent

overall manufacturing:     +0.61 percent          +0.75 percent           +0.82 percent

durable goods:                  +0.82 percent         +1.00 percent            +1.27 percent

fabricated metals products: +1.09 percent      +1.16 percent             +1.16 percent

non-electrical machinery:   +1.23 percent       +1.37 percent            +1.80 percent

automotive vehicles & parts: -0.03 percent     +0.07 percent            +0.78 percent

household appliances:          -0.31 percent        -0.31 percent             not available

aerospace products & parts:  +3.12 percent    +3.71 percent              not available

Consistent with data for the preceding months, the results are somewhat uneven. The automotive and appliances sectors have been under-performing considerably. (The latter, of course, was hit with household laundry machine tariffs a little before the metals tariffs began.) And momentum is slowing in fabricated metals products. But the rate of payroll increases everywhere else keep exceeding those for manufacturing overall, and even the durable goods super-sector – where the metals use in manufacturing is heavily concentrated. In addition, the momentum for motor vehicles and parts is strengthening.

Nothing in economics lasts forever. But the Cassandras who have been claiming both that the metals tariffs will surely decimate American metals-using industries, and that the damage is already visible, clearly need to rethink their narratives. Because with each passing month, they look just as clueless as Vladimir, Estragon…and good old Charlie Brown.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Fed Figures Show Still More Solid Metals-Users Growth Despite Tariffs

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aluminum, durable goods, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, metals, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, steel, tariffs, Trade, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Although the media remains far from catching on, with the release this morning of the Federal Reserve’s latest manufacturing production figures (for August), it should no longer be news to report that President Trump’s metals tariffs show absolutely no sign of harming U.S. industry overall or sectors that use significant amounts of steel and aluminum – where the levies have been imposed. The real metals tariff-related news will come if and when such damage actually does turn up in any official data.

Here’s how major metals-using industries have done in terms of generating real growth between July and August (according to this morning’s preliminary data) – along with the numbers for manufacturing as a whole, and durable goods as a whole (the super-category in which the heaviest metals users tend to be found):

overall manufacturing: +0.28 percent

durable goods:   +1.01 percent

fabricated metal products:  +0.22 percent

machinery:  +1.07 percent

automotive:  +4.02 percent

small appliances:  +0.81 percent

major appliances:  -2.76 percent

In general, the metals-using sectors have clearly performed quite well. Moreover, major appliance makers – the top exception – have of course, have been hit not only with the metals tariffs, but with safeguard tariffs on one of their products – large residential laundry machines.

But since a single month does not a trend make, let’s examine the inflation-adjusted output data since the advent of the first metals tariffs – in late March. Once again, the big takeaway is that the metals-using sectors in general have at least held their own. In fact, except for the major appliances category, their price-adjusted production has begun to accelerate.

                                                  old thru July   new thru July    new thru Aug

overall manufacturing                     +0.25                +0.26                 +0.54

durables manufacturing                    +0.48               -0.09                  +0.94

fabricated metals products               +0.79               +0.62                 +0.84

machinery                                        +0.09                +0.69                  +1.77

automotive                                        -0.63                -3.38                   +0.49

small appliances                               -5.33                -4.11                     -3.34

major appliances                              -5.25                -2.87                     -5.55

Finally, the metals tariffs now appear to be resulting in notable after-inflation production increases in the protected metals sectors, too. In August, constant dollar primary metals production grew on month by three percent – its best such performance since March, 2010 (3.43 percent), when the current economy-wide recovery was in its very early stages. In addition, since the first steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect, real primary metals production is up 1.15 percent – which compares very favorably with the output performance of manufacturing in general, the durable goods super-sector, and the metals-using industries.

In other words, rather than sitting on their hands and just enjoying the higher profits enabled by the tariffs, it seems that the steel and aluminum industries are indeed ramping up production. So in a world where trade-related news was reported accurately, reports on the new industrial production numbers would specify that the levies so far are a win-win for the economy – working as intended for the metals makers and leaving metals users unscathed. Let’s see if this winds up as an accurate description of this world. 

  

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Where’s the (Trump Tariffs-Created) Uncertainty?

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capital spending, Census Bureau, core capex, durable goods, tariffs, Trade, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

When something widely predicted keeps not happening, maybe it’s time to start de-emphasizing speculation as to when it might happen, and start focusing instead on why the predictions have been off-base.

I’m not saying that that time has yet arrived when it comes to the impact of President Trump’s tariff-heavy trade policies on the U.S. economy – which have triggered any number of forecasts of disaster, or at least serious slowdown, but which have, as I’ve reported, so far brought nothing of the kind. But with the release this morning of the Census Bureau’s latest advance gauge of orders for durable goods industries, the time to start reassessing predictions of trade-mageddon clearly continued to get closer.

The biggest contrarian piece of evidence in these durable goods numbers (which go through July) is the finding on American business spending on new orders for capital goods minus defense products. This data series is widely, and rightly, regarded as the best available evidence of corporate purchases of machinery and equipment, and therefore a highly revealing sign of business optimism or pessimism – and of the economy’s prospects.

For if businesses are spending strongly on such goods, they’re surely expecting good times to continue, or less-than-good times to become good. If such spending is weak, then the opposite conclusion is certainly reasonable to draw.

In this vein, a central argument against the Trump trade policies is that, at the least, they’ll increase what businesses supposedly like least – uncertainty about the future – and that as a result, corporations will either freeze or cut capital goods spending and set off a downward economic spiral. But the newest Census data show that nothing of the kind is yet happening.

According to the new release, spending on non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft (defense spending is excluded because it’s the result of government policy, not market forces, and therefore says relatively little about the fundamentals of the economy; aircraft figures are excluded because they can be highly volatile) rose a healthy 1.40 percent between June and July.

If this sequential increase is confirmed in the final July numbers, which will come out in early September, then it will represent the fourth straight monthly advance. And what’s revealing about the time-frame is that the first tariffs to be imposed by the Trump administration per se (as opposed to levies imposed by the independent U.S. International Trade Commission) came in late March in the form of the steel and aluminum tariffs. So these “core capex” findings seem to indicate substantial certainty on the part of American business.

Skeptics can (correctly) point to signs that the pace of core capital spending has slackened since the tariffs’ advent. As indicated above, the final core capex numbers only go through June, but they show that from January through April, such spending rose a total of 2.68 percent, but only 0.92 percent since April.

Yet looking over the comparable data for previous years – when such tariffs were only vague talk (2017) or off the table (before Mr. Trump became president) – shows that this pattern is nothing out of the ordinary. Here are the January-thru April, and the April-thru-June final core capital spending changes for 2014 through 2017:

                                              January-April                   April-June

2017                                     +2.08 percent                  -0.03 percent

2016                                      -1.61 percent                  -1.73 percent

2015                                      -2.43 percent                   -1.35 percent

2014                                      -2.16 percent                   +4.32 percent

Yes, as emphasized in previous such posts, the time-frames are short, many more tariffs could lie ahead, and they could take a major toll on the American economy. But until this damage starts appearing, perhaps the Mainstream Media and the other economic and business powers-that-be might begin investigating why it may not?

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The Tariff-Induced Carnage in U.S. Metals-Using Manufacturing is Still MIA

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appliances, automotive, durable goods, fabricated metal products, Federal Reserve, industrial production, machinery, manufacturing, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, tariffs, Trade, Trump, washing machines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The July figures for after-inflation U.S. manufacturing production came in this morning from the Federal Reserve, and they further debunk widespread reports that President Trump’s tariff-heavy trade policies – and particular his levies on steel and aluminum imports – are backfiring badly by decimating metals-using manufacturing sectors that dwarf the steel and aluminum makers.

Let’s first look at the monthly numbers, and compare the (preliminary) real growth of major metals-using sectors and manufacturing overall from June to July:

overall manufacturing:  +0.31 percent

durable goods:   +0.39 percent

fab metals:  -0.03 percent

machinery:  +0.56 percent

automotive:  +0.94 percent

small appliances:  -1.41 percent

major appliances:  -4.56 percent

Clearly, most metals-using sectors actually outperformed overall, with the top exceptions being appliance makers. Those in the major appliance category, of course, have been hit not only with the metals tariffs, but with safeguard tariffs on one of their actual products – large residential laundry machines.

Moreover, the output data since the advent of the first metals tariffs – in late March – show that the metals-using sectors in general have at least held their own. Here are the inflation-adjusted output percentage changes since April; they include the initially reported numbers through June (released by the Fed last month), and the revised June and initial July figures (released this morning).

                                                       old thru June   new thru June    new thru July

overall manufacturing                     – 0.21                +0.06                 +0.25

durables manufacturing                    -0.05               +0.09                  +0.48

fabricated metals products               +0.90               +0.82                 +0.79

machinery                                         -0.75                -0.47                  +0.09

automotive                                        -0.68                -1.56                   -0.63

small appliances                               -3.31                -3.98                   -5.33

major appliances                              -3.16                -0.73                    -5.25

Although the results for the very large machinery and automotive sectors look worse than the overall manufacturing numbers at first glance, they’ve each been undermined by some one-off developments.

In machinery, as reported here last month, the subpar post-April constant dollar growth clearly reflects some giveback from a big production jump between March and April. This increase was initially reported as a 2.27 percent surge, and it was estimated this morning at a still impressive 2.21 percent.

In automotive, production is still recovering from the effects of a fire in early May at a factory that produced parts for a popular Ford pickup truck, and which depressed after-inflation output that month by a huge 8.52 percent.

The post-April numbers confirm that both appliance sectors continue to be the big tariff losers, but the rest of the data show that they’ve been the exceptions, not the rule.

As usual with data, “past performance does not guarantee future results.” But the new Fed figures (along with comparable employment figures I’ve reported) also make clear that, so far, claims of major tariff-induced losses for domestic metals-using manufacturing belong in the realm of speculation, not of facts.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Trump Metals Tariffs Coverage has Just (Again) Been Exposed as Largely Fake News

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ABC News, aluminum, Associated Press, Bloomberg, CBS News, CNN, durable goods, Financial Times, Jobs, Mainstream Media, manufacturing, Marketwatch.com, metals, metals-using industries, NBC News, PBS, private sector, Reuters, steel, tariffs, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Trade, Trump, Washington Post, {What's Left of) Our Economy

In case you still think that President Trump’s charges of fake news-peddling by the national news media are fake news themselves, consider this: For the second time in two months, if you decided to hold your breath till you found a Mainstream Media item reporting that the America’s metals-using industries have been major job-creation leaders, not laggards, you’d have died.

Such omissions are especially important because since the Trump administration began imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (in March), the media has been filled not only with predictions of massive employment and production losses in metals-using manufacturing (because the prices of two noteworthy inputs for these industries was bound to rise), but with accounts of actual economic damage that numerous companies in these sectors have already suffered. (See here and here for just two examples.) 

Last month, I noted that, for all these accounts, authoritative government data (through June) showed that the metals-using industries’ performance by both measures had both generally improved, and had indeed both generally improved more than job creation and output in the rest of manufacturing.

Since then, more steel and aluminum tariffs were put in place (mainly because some major U.S. trade partners initially exempted from the tariffs were subjected to the levies). And what did we learn from the newest jobs report, which was released last Friday, and took the story through July (on a preliminary basis)? That the metals-using industries continue to set the national job-creation pace for the entire economy, not simply for manufacturing.

Here are the percentage gains for employment in some major sectors of the economy from April (the first month during which any metals tariffs effects would have been felt) through July except for the industries noted:

entire private sector: +0.53 percent

overall manufacturing: +0.73 percent

durable goods: +0.96 percent

fabricated metals products: +1.10 percent

non-electrical machinery: +1.43 percent

automotive vehicles & parts: +1.06 percent

household appliances (thru June): -0.63 percent

aerospace products & parts (thru June): +1.05 percent

Unfortunately, it was not possible to learn any of this from America’s leading news organizations. For these figures were completely ignored.

To their credit, some leading media mentioned that Trump tariffs and trade war fears in general seemed to be having no effect on manufacturing job creation overall despite industry’s exposure in principle to the fall-out. These included the Associated Press, The New York Times, the Financial Times, CNN, ABC News, and NBC News. Yet the metals-using sectors were never mentioned.

As for The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and CBS News, they made no connection of the tariff/trade war-manufacturing job connection whatever.

And several news organizations actually tried to rationalize the unexpected results. Reuters, for example, claimed that “With manufacturing payrolls increasing by the most in seven months, the moderation in hiring reported by the Labor Department on Friday likely does not reflect the rising trade tensions between the United States and other nations including China.”

According to PBS, “Economists say it is too early to tell whether the Trump administration’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are having a significant effect on manufacturing jobs.”

Bloomberg and Marketwatch.com weren’t as disingenuous, but still felt compelled to contend that rising trade tensions continued to cast a long shadow on the job markets’ future – without reporting that, if anything, new U.S. policies and statements were so far having exactly the opposite effect on parts of the economy most exposed to existing metals tariffs.

But no account of press coverage of these Trump trade policies would be complete without observing an equally weird development: Neither the President nor anyone else in his administration has pointed to the outperformance of the metals-using industries, either.

In a little over a week, the nation will get its next major opportunity to gauge the impact of metals and other tariffs, and future possibilities thereof – when the Federal Reserve releases the July industrial production data, which includes detailed statistics on inflation-adjusted manufacturing output. Will the Mainstream Media finally zero in on the sectors where the tariff rubber hits the road? At this rate, Americans should be grateful if they simply ended the string of job loss and other Chicken Little metals tariff impact stories.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: No Serious Evidence That Tariffs are Killing U.S. Metals-Using Industries

Tags

aluminum tariffs, appliances, automotive, durable goods, fabricated metal products, Federal Reserve, inflation-adjusted growth, Jobs, Labor Department, machinery, manufacturing, media bias, steel tariffs, tariffs, Trade, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

With the mainstream media filled with articles (see, e.g., here, here, and here) on how President Trump’s current and proposed trade tariffs are already inflicting major damage on the U.S. economy, it’s useful to look at the official data capable of shedding maximum light on the situation. Fortunately, in this respect, Washington just released U.S. employment and manufacturing production statistics that can achieve just such a goal, and their message couldn’t be clearer: Although anecdotal accounts point to possible reasons for concern, the most comprehensive information available portrays these reports as completely unrepresentative – at least so far.

Principally, in late March, the Trump administration began imposed levies on steel and aluminum imports. It’s logical to suppose that the nation’s steel-using industries and their workers in particular would be big losers so far, since the steel tariffs of 25 percent are much higher than the ten percent levies on aluminum. But the data make clear that no such conclusions are justified to this point.

Let’s start with production, where statistics (from the Federal Reserve) go through June (on a preliminary basis). They show that, since April (the first few months during which any tariffs had any effects), overall domestic American manufacturing output (which includes all the industries that aren’t major steel users) has dipped by 0.21 percent.

Real production in durable goods sectors (which include all the big steel-using industries) is down, too – but by a bare 0.05 percent.

And many especially heavy metals-using industries have been doing better still. After inflation output in fabricated metal products rose by 0.90 percent between April and June. Constant dollar machinery production is down 0.75 percent – but that drop clearly reflects some mean reversion from the 2.27 percent jump between March and April. Automotive (combined vehicles and parts production) has fallen by 0.68 percent in real terms since April, but much of the decline stems from the supply chain effects of a fire at a factory producing parts for a popular model.

Appliances look like an important exception. Between April and June, constant dollar production in small appliances has tumbled by 3.31 percent, and in major appliances by 3.16 percent. But both sectors had been struggling for years before the Trump tariffs. In the former, it was down on net since February, 2015; in the latter, since September, 2016. By contrast, real output in the other metals-using industries was up strongly during those periods.

The jobs figures (from the Labor Department, which also go through June, preliminarily) tell a similar story. Overall manufacturing output has advanced by 0.43 percent since April. In durable goods industries, it’s improved by 0.57 percent.

In fabricated metals, however, payrolls have grown by 0.72 percent since April, and in machinery, by 0.95 percent during this period. The automotive sector has trailed these two in job creation, but has still nudged its employment up by 0.04 percent since April. And the 0.47 percent decrease in overall appliance employment (separate figures for small and major products aren’t available) continues that sector’s record as a significant jobs laggard.

What will the future hold? That’s anyone’s guess. It’s also true that tariff-produced price increases tend to take their time working their way through corporate supply chains, and that at the end of May, the administration imposed a second, big round of metals tariffs on three big metals-exporting trade competitors exempted from the first round: the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.

But it’s also true that there’s no statistical evidence to date that the metals tariffs, many of which have been in effect since late March, have harmed upstream industries, and plenty of statistical evidence that these metals consumers have been faring just fine – and then some. Fake News, anyone?

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: May US Manufacturing Output Figures Could Feed Optimism or Pessimism

Tags

automotive, durable goods, Federal Reserve, Great Recession, industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recovery, {What's Left of) Our Economy

May’s Federal Reserve domestic U.S. manufacturing production figures presented a puzzling glass-half-empty-half-full picture. Overall sequential real output levels were down 0.63 percent – their worst such performance since July, 2013’s 1.06 percent decrease. Clearly playing a big role was a fire at a factory producing parts for especially popular pickup truck models, which helped depress after-inflation automotive production by 6.45 percent – its worst such performance since April, 2011’s 7.91 percent plummet.

Yet stripped of automotive’s woes, inflation-adjusted manufacturing output was still down 0.18 percent on month in May, and the month’s decline represented the third such fall-off in the last five months. Largely as a result, industry’s annual constant dollar production increase improved in May by just 1.85 percent – the slowest such rate since January’s 1.10 percent. The automotive decline helped drag down monthly production in the durable goods super-sector by 1.16 percent in price-adjusted terms – the biggest such decrease since July, 2013’s 1.42 percent. Real output in the smaller non-durable goods super-sector was off only 0.08 percent in May.

After-inflation manufacturing output is still down 3.85 percent since the start of the last recession – more than eleven years ago.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s release Friday on May industrial production:

>May’s Federal Reserve industrial production figures contained evidence for both optimism and pessimism about the U.S. economy and its domestic manufacturing sector.

>Optimists could reasonably blame much of the 0.63 percent sequential drop in real manufacturing output – the worst monthly decrease since July, 2013’s 1.06 percent decline – on a fire at a factory providing parts for popular U.S. pickup truck models.

>And indeed, the May overall manufacturing production swoon was led by a 6.45 percent on-month plunge in motor vehicle and parts output – the worst such performance since April, 2011’s 7.91 percent.

>But pessimists could note that even counting the automotive effect, the rest of domestic manufacturing posted a 0.18 percent dip in monthly inflation-adjusted output – the third such shrinkage in five months.

>Largely as a result, manufacturing’s annual growth rate in May was down to 1.85 percent – its weakest since January’s 1.10 percent. Between the previous Mays, real manufacturing production expanded by 1.87 percent.

>Automotive’s troubles also showed up in the results for the durable goods super-sector in which it’s found. Durable goods’ after-inflation production sank by 1.16 percent sequentially in May – its worst such performance since July, 2013’s 1.42 percent plummet.

>In addition, its 1.97 percent constant dollar May annual growth rate was durable goods’ slowest since January’s 0.94 percent. Between the previous Mays, price-adjusted durable goods production advanced by 2.18 percent.

>Inflation-adjusted output held up better in the smaller non-durables super-sector in May. Its monthly production slipped by just 0.08 percent.

>On-year in May, non-durables’ real production rose by 1.73 percent. As with durable goods, this growth rate is the slowest since January (1.28 percent), but the deceleration has been smaller. Moreover, this year’s May annual production rate for non-durables was better than that for the previous Mays (1.57 percent).

>Revisions for overall real manufacturing production were slightly negative. April’s previously 0.47 percent monthly increase was upgraded to 0.57 percent. March’s already downgraded 0.02 percent rise was downgraded to a 0.11 percent decline. And February’s downwardly revised 1.40 percent increase was bumped down again to 1.39 percent.

>Largely as a result, in price-adjusted terms, domestic manufacturing’s production is now 3.85 percent lower than at the onset of the Great Recession – more than eleven years ago, at the end of 2007.

>After-inflation durable goods output is now 0.10 percent below the levels it hit in December, 2007, and 0.13 percent less than in January, 2008 (its last actual peak).

>Despite their recent out-performance, the non-durables sector has fared much worse since the last recession hit. Its constant dollar output is down fully 8.35 percent from its previous peak, which came in July, 2007.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Fed Manufacturing Production Figures Produce Mixed Picture

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durable goods, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recession, recovery, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Domestic U.S. manufacturing grew on month in April in real terms for the third straight month, according to the Federal Reserve’s new industrial production figures. Moreover, April’s 0.47 percent sequential after-inflation production increase was the best such result since October’s 1.31 percent – which was boosted by a bounce-back effect from last fall’s hurricanes. Monthly constant dollar output gains were recorded for both durable goods (0.42 percent) and non-durable goods (0.52 percent).

Yet moderately negative revisions generated an annual April real growth rate for overall manufacturing (2.01 percent) that was the lowest since January’s 0.99 percent, and slightly more sluggish than the previous April-to-April’s 2.18 percent. Adjusted for inflation, domestic U.S. manufacturing output remains 3.31 percent smaller than at its peak before the last recession began – more than ten years ago.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s release today on April industrial production:

>The new April Federal Reserve industrial production figures showed mixed results for domestic manufacturing, with inflation-adjusted output expanding sequentially for the third straight months, but annual real growth showing some signs of slowing.

>Industry’s constant dollar output improved on month by 0.47 percent in April – the best such performance since a hurricane bounce-back effect helped spur a 1.31 percent sequential spurt last October.

>April’s real monthly production improvement was broad-based, including both the durable goods (0.42 percent) and non-durable goods (0.52 percent) super-sectors.

>Yet the latest revisions were moderately negative. March’s meager 0.07 percent monthly output rise was downgraded to 0.02 percent, February’s 1.51 percent jump is now judged to have been 1.40 percent, and January’s 0.37 percent sequential drop is now reported as a 0.59 percent decrease.

>Largely as a result, April’s year-on-year real manufacturing production increase was only 2.01 percent – the lowest since January’s 0.99 percent.

>Between the previous Aprils, constant dollar manufacturing output expanded by 2.18 percent.

>In addition, the new Fed figures reveal that, in price-adjusted terms, domestic manufacturing is still 3.31 percent smaller than at its pre-recession peak at the end of 2007 – more than ten years ago.

>More encouragingly, April’s monthly manufacturing production improvement was broad-based.

>For durable goods, the larger of manufacturing’s two super-sectors, real output advanced by 0.42 percent sequentially in April.

>Nonetheless, revisions were negative as well, with March’s previously reported 0.39 percent increase downgraded to 0.17 percent, February’s 1.84 percent increase to 1.59 percent, and January’s 0.25 percent dip to a 0.40 percent decrease.

>Durable goods’ year-on-year results were no better. April’s 1.94 percent annual production increase was the lowest inflation-adjusted figure since January’s 0.74 percent. It was also significantly worse than the 2.77 percent figure recorded between the previous Aprils.

>Durable goods real production is now 0.78 percent above the level it hit at the outset of the last recession, at the end of 2007. It rose slightly the following month, and is now 0.75 percent above that January, 2008 levels.

>Non-durable goods have turned in a somewhat better recent performance.

>In April, their price-adjusted output rose by 0.52 percent on month.

>Moreover, March’s previously reported 0.27 percent sequential real production decrease was revised up to a 0.13 percent decline, and February’s 1.16 percent increase was revised up to 1.20 percent. Only January’s results were downgraded – from a 0.50 percent monthly decrease to a 0.79 percent drop.

>On an annual basis, non-durables after-inflation output rose by 2.10 percent in April – a decided improvement from the 1.54 percent increase between the previous Aprils.

>Further, although the latest year-on-year non-durables’ real output increase is also the lowest since January’s (1.26 percent), the deceleration has been smaller than that in durable goods.

>Nonetheless, constant dollar non-durables output is now fully 8.13 percent below its pre-recession peak – hit in July, 2007.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Puzzling New Glimpses into U.S. Manufacturing

Tags

Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commerce Department, durable goods, Labor Department, labor productivity, manufacturing, non-durable goods, productivity, real value-added, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Two important sets of economic statistics came out today that shed lots of new light on the health of American manufacturing. Unfortunately, little of it is especially encouraging. In fact, some of it’s pretty mystifying.

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis issued its annual report on the growth rates of different sectors of the U.S. economy. The main manufacturing finding: Industry’s annual growth rate did pick up last year according to a measure called real value-added (which leads off the report, and which attempts to eliminate the double-counting of output that occurs when broader gauges fail to distinguish between final products on the one hand, and their parts, components, and other inputs on the other). Yet the acceleration from a 0.5 percent yearly expansion in 2016 to 2017’s 1.9 percent trailed that output increase of the economy as a whole – which improved from 1.5 percent to 2.3 percent. As a result, the economy became slightly more manufacturing light in 2017.

In addition, within manufacturing, growth leadership shifted dramatically. Whereas the non-durable goods super-sector outperformed its larger durable goods counterpart in 2016 (with the former’s real value-added improving year-on-year by 1.2 percent while the latter’s slipped by 0.2 percent), durable goods rebounded to a 3.4 percent annual growth rate in 2017 while non-durables’ real value-added inched up by just 0.1 percent.

The American economy’s overall growth leader in 2017 in real value-added terms? The mining sector, which jumped by 8.5 percent after plummeting by 13.3 percent the year before. The next fastest-growing industries were administrative and waste management services (4.9 percent), corporate management (4.6 percent), and information services (four percent even).

Today’s second data set (from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics) shows which sectors within manufacturing last year excelled in terms of labor productivity (the narrower of economists’ two main measures of efficiency), and which lagged and, once more, many of the results were surprising. (We already know that industry in toto had a dreary labor productivity year last year.) For instance, computer and computer peripheral equipment led the way last year, generating eleven percent more output per employees hour worked. But next came apparel knitting mills, at 10.5 percent, followed by agriculture, construction, and mining machinery at 10.4 percent, and cutlery and handtools at 9.4 percent.

The biggest productivity loser in 2017? Miscellaneous transportation equipment, where it nosedived by 11.5 percent. In ascending order, the next worst performers were electric lighting equipment (down 9.2 percent), sugar and confectionary products (down eight percent), and beverages (down 7.8 percent).

Other manufacturing sectors whose labor productivity worsened on year in 2017? Pharmaceuticals and medicine (down seven percent), metal-working machinery (which includes machine tools – and where labor productivity declined by 1.3 percent), communications equipment (down 2.2 percent), semiconductors (down 0.7 percent), motor vehicles (down 4.1 percent), and aerospace products and parts (down 3.1 percent).

And if you’re thinking that this list of productivity losers includes lots of so-called industries of the future, you’re of course right. Kudos also if you’ve noted that aerospace is the economy’s biggest trade surplus industry. It’s enough to instill a little humility in those of us who think we’re getting a handle on this gargantuan, complex American economy, or heighten for those who had some already.