Im-Politic: Will Sanders and His Backers Become Real Revolutionaries?

Tags

2016 election, Bernie Sanders, Democratic National Committee, Democrats, DNC, Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, emails, Im-Politic, Immigration, leaks, Populism, refugees, Tim Kaine, TPP, Trade, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Wikileaks

You want a humbling experience? Try coming back from a week-long vacation perfectly timed to coincide with possibly the most tumultuous presidential nominating convention in recent decades! While relaxing on and around the beach in Fenwick Island, Delaware, I generally kept the electronic devices off, and so got only the general drift of events in Cleveland. My efforts to catch up yesterday, moreover, only reinforce my doubts about adding much useful to the latest torrent of news, analysis, and simple bloviation that’s flooded the nation – even though it’s far from clear that much new has been learned, or that many minds have been fundamentally changed.

Thank goodness the latest major development came just as I was returning home: the hacked Democratic National Committee (DNC) emails released by Wikileaks on Friday night. Much has already been written about how angry they are no doubt making Hillary Clinton’s former rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, Bernie Sanders, along with the Vermont Senator’s passionate supporters. 

Much more should and I hope will be written about how the disclosures and their fallout will affect the vast -but largely unrealized – potential that still remains for a grand left-right populist coalition to come together in American politics once this year’s presidential race is over.

The leaked DNC emails put the Sanders wing of the Democratic Party squarely on the spot. Barring major new revelations to the contrary, they’re the most powerful possible injection of salt into Sanders Nation wounds that were rawer than ever over the Democratic platform committee’s refusal to oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, and over party standard-bearer Hillary Clinton’s choice of centrist, Big Business-friendly Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate.

Every suspicion held by the Sanders camp that the Democrats’ leadership worked overtime to ensure his defeat – despite the DNC’s own requirement of neutrality – has now been spectacularly confirmed. And who now can reasonably doubt that the DNC was motivated mainly by the threat Sanders’ economic populism posed to its Clinton-friendly donor class?

Donald Trump has made numerous verbal overtures to Sanders and his supporters throughout his successful maverick campaign for the Republican nomination. But no matter how many points of agreement he spotlighted – notably on trade, Wall Street reform, the bloated role of corporate and other special interest money in American politics, and hyper-interventionist U.S. foreign policies – he’s been angrily rebuffed both by the candidate himself and the vast majority of his followers.

Of course, Trump has made this rejection-ism far too easy for the Democratic Left, thanks largely to his inflammatory rhetoric on illegal immigration (especially from Mexico) and a long string of insulting comments both before and during his presidential run about any number of groups and individuals. In addition, serious questions have been raised – and not adequately answered – about Trump’s previous and current business practices. And because Trump’s pugnacious personality seems to rule out any efforts even to acknowledge the resulting concerns, his chances of victory in November have been damaged.

But the emergence of a large, genuinely populist constituency on the Right creates a much thornier longer-term challenge to Sanders Democrats if they’re serious about their avowed goal of revolutionizing American politics: Can they and will they abandon strongly held positions of their own that arguably have hardened into shibboleths and that limit their own bipartisan appeal as surely – and needlessly – as Trump’s excessive political incorrectness? The two biggest tests I can think of concern immigration.

Leftist Democrats have been outraged by Trump’s description, in his campaign kickoff announcement, of at least many Mexican immigrants as criminals. But do they really support the immigration policies laid out in the Democratic platform, which despite its reference to “reasonable limits” on legal immigration, would create powerful magnets to inflows by offering lightly conditioned citizenship to the illegals already in the United States; by streamlining the family reunification process that already fosters far too much chain migration; by gutting even today’s weak enforcement and deportation programs; and by expanding the range of public services made available to residents “regardless of immigration status”?

Do they really believe that pumping up the domestic labor supply to this extent (including with the increases in visa quotas for highly skilled immigrants favored by Clinton and her Silicon Valley backers) will benefit the existing legal American workforce? In other words, do they really believe that handing over current American jobs to a burgeoning flood of newcomers is any less damaging to the nation’s working and middle classes than shipping those jobs overseas through offshoring-friendly trade deals?

Or should they listen to a voice who a decade ago warned that the Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill then before Congress “would bring low-wage workers into this country in order to depress the already declining wages of American workers” and that “With poverty increasing and the middle-class shrinking, we must not force American workers into even more economic distress”?

That voice was Bernie Sanders’, and although he was referring specifically to the bill’s guest worker programs, the economics behind his analysis apply across the immigration board.

Sanders backers also need to reexamine their views on admitting immigrants and refugees from war-torn Middle Eastern countries. Let’s agree that Trump’s original Muslim ban would have been unconstitutional and unworkable. (Even Trump has backed away from this position.) Do they honestly agree with the Obama administration’s insistence that current vetting procedures are adequate? Do they not recognize – as even the president grudgingly but repeatedly has acknowledged – that Islam has presented a distinctive terrorism problem? Indeed, on Thursday, he stated that “the Muslim faith itself…has driven violence in some parts of the world.”

Are they dead-set against acting on the logical implication of Obama’s remarks, and participating in efforts to devise practicable, legal methods for protect their fellow citizens from threats they face from both without and within? Are they determined to self-righteously remain on their soapboxes and condemn as bigots and xenophobes the roughly half of their fellow countrymen who endorse Trump’s fundamental demand to end business-as-usual approaches? And do Sanders’ populists line up behind Clinton’s call actually to make the domestic Islam problem bigger, by quintupling current immigration and refugee admissions from the Middle East?

So far, Trump’s gratuitous bombast has handed Sanders’ backers, as well as supporters of Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, a convenient excuse for opposing immigration proposals that would directly and concretely bolster the prosperity and security of the working and middle-class Americans they claim to champion – and that large chunks of the mass public clearly favor. By the same token, at least apparently in their minds, Trump’s excesses have relieved Democratic Leftists of any responsibility to reach out to their fellow populists on the opposite end of the spectrum, try to bridge the immigration and other gaps, and create a transformational new coalition in American politics.

But Democratic populists can’t count on this excuse much longer. Whoever prevails in the general election, populists of all stripes will need to cooperate to ensure that their unprecedented combined impact this political cycle produces enduring successes. And no current issue touches core questions of economics, national security – and national identity – like immigration. Left-wing Democrats who want to be successful revolutionaries will focus on identifying and expanding common ground, and on working with Trump, his backers, and that group of more conventional, less sharp-edged politicians who decide to proceed down the trail the Republican nominee has blazed. Those content simply to advertise their political virtue while establishment policies continue threatening Main Street Americans will keep demonizing Trump and his insurgency.

Im-Politic: Clinton, Comey, and the Common Sense Test

Tags

2016 election, classified material, emails, FBI, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Hillary Clinton, Im-Politic, indictment, James Comey, prosecutors, State Department

Yours truly is not a lawyer; never was a lawyer; has no legal education aside from one undergraduate class, harbors no current ambitions to be a lawyer; hasn’t wanted to become one for decades (since the thrill of visiting my late father’s office as a kid wore off); and doesn’t even find lawyer TV shows, movies, or novels all that interesting. Truth in advertising: I did take the law school admission test – because in economically stagnant mid-1970s America, what else was a humanities major supposed to do?

So I’m not qualified to comment from a legal standpoint on the legal aspects of the FBI’s decision not to indict Hillary Clinton. But here are some thoughts from the standpoint of common sense – with a special focus on the Bureau’s judgment that “no reasonable prosecutor” would recommend filing criminal charges against the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee and former Secretary of State.

First, Bureau Director James Comey undercut the “reasonable” part of this contention with his declaration that “we did not find clear evidence that Secretary Clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing the handling of classified information.” You don’t have to be nitpicker to recognize that this phrasing indicates that the FBI found some evidence of these intentions. I understand that the American system of justice grants prosecutors considerable discretion on such matters. But this discretion surely is not limitless. Is it really standard practice to absolve the subject of an investigation because some (unspecified) standard of clarity wasn’t met? Above all, was there no “reasonable” argument for allowing a trial to settle the question?

Second, Comey seemed to set an awfully high bar for indictment. Explaining that “Responsible decisions…consider the context of a person’s actions, and how similar situations have been handled in the past,” Comey presented a list of conditions that presumably would have to be satisfied:

“[C]learly intentional and willful mishandling of classified information; or vast quantities of materials exposed in such a way as to support an inference of intentional misconduct; or indications of disloyalty to the United States; or efforts to obstruct justice. We do not see those things here.”

Was Comey saying that all four conditions needed to be met? If so, he already ruled out the first. But the second looks fishy. Why do “vast quantities of materials” need to be exposed? Why not, say, a single document saying, e.g., “We’re attacking ISIS on June 1, at 4 PM EST”? Does quality, in other words, have no relevance in the FBI’s calculus?

Moreover, the contention that nothing qualifying as obstruction of justice could be found seems to clash with the finding that Clinton’s lawyers “cleaned their devices in such a way as to preclude complete forensic recovery. ” Since when do honest lawyers assisting an official criminal investigation not err on the side of caution? Indeed, Comey’s conclusion about the lawyers’ conduct was anything but conclusive:

“Although we do not have complete visibility because we are not able to fully reconstruct the electronic record of that sorting, we believe our investigation has been sufficient to give us reasonable confidence there was no intentional misconduct in connection with that sorting effort.”

That is, there’s important evidence that’s still missing. And the Bureau qualified its determination with the phrases “we believe” and “reasonable (that legal mainstay again!) confidence.”

Third, Comey’s overall description of Clinton’s conduct looks like a classic instance of hair-splitting. As he sees it, her behavior was not “grossly negligent” – the apparent standard for criminality. Instead, it was “extremely careless.” What on earth is the difference outside the universe of apologists and public relations flacks?

Moreover, Comey’s definition of “gross negligence” evidently doesn’t encompass his findings that (his own words):

>“There is evidence to support a conclusion that any reasonable person in Secretary Clinton’s position, or in the position of those government employees with whom she was corresponding about these matters, should have known that an unclassified system was no place for that conversation”: and

>“we also developed evidence that the security culture of the State Department in general, and with respect to use of unclassified e-mail systems in particular, was generally lacking in the kind of care for classified information found elsewhere in the government. ”

None of these points is meant to suggest that Comey’s judgments were incontrovertibly wrong or even unreasonable. They are meant to suggest that the call not to indict Clinton was incredibly close – so close, in fact, and raising so many further questions, that as suggested above, the proper place to resolve them is not inside a prosecutor’s office. It’s at an open criminal trial.

After he delivered the statement, Comey briskly walked off the stage without dealing with the crowd of slavering journalists assembled in front of him. That’s the recent decision of his I understand best.

Im-Politic: Bernie Sanders’ All-But Fatal Debate Mistake

Tags

2016 elections, Bernie Sanders, chattering class, Clinton Foundation, Democratic debate, emails, Hillary Clinton, Im-Politic. Democrats, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy

Though much more low-key than its Republican counterparts, last night’s Democratic presidential debate wasn’t simply the earnest, policy-focused wonk-fest being portrayed by so much of the chattering class – and the party’s own spinners. (Click on this link for a transcript.) Especially interesting were the clashing views of achieving political change that were voiced by front-runner Hillary Clinton and her leading challenger, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

Clinton made the case for working conventionally through the political system, gridlocked though it seems to be, and securing whatever victories, even if modest, this state of affairs permits. Sanders served up the prospect of “a political revolution when millions of people begin to come together and stand up and say: Our government is going to work for all of us, not just a handful of billionaires.”

But don’t be fooled. None of the policy proposals introduced and debated in Las Vegas last night had anything to do with the only moment of real significance in the debate – and it was not only a game-changer, it looks like a campaign-changer. I’m talking about Sanders’ undoubtedly well-intentioned but bone-headed demand, “Enough of the e-mails. Let’s talk about the real issues facing America.” For Sanders’ belittling of the latest cloud of scandal surrounding the former First Lady, New York Senator, and Secretary of State may well have handed her the nomination on a silver platter.

Sanders allowed that his ostensible pitch for substance “may not be great politics.” That will soon rank as one of the biggest understatement in the last few decades of campaign history. You don’t have to love political mudslinging to recognize that much more often than not, winning political candidates draw sharp distinctions between themselves and their rivals that portray the latter in unflattering lights. And you don’t have to be a shallow, image-obsessed Beltway politico to recognize that voters vote not only on “the issues,” but on character.

So challengers (even with powerful momentum) facing front-runners (even struggling) simply can’t afford to pass up debate-level high profile opportunities to tout their own ethical record and attack their opponents’ – the more so when the policy gap is less than yawning, and when character is the main rival’s greatest weakness by far.

The loud applause Sanders won from the (understandably) partisan crowd strongly suggests that Democrats view the controversies surrounding Clinton as simply the latest smear attempts from the “vast right-wing conspiracy” that they believe has long targeted both Clinton and her husband. (And yes, this narrative has been decisively strengthened by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s breathtakingly stupid apparent confirmation of these suspicions.)

Yet it’s likelier that the doubts inevitably raised are in fact eating at party loyalists. Maybe they have simply undermined confidence about Clinton’s electability next fall. Maybe Democratic voters are more privately troubled than they let on in public by the questions raised by Clinton’s handling of national security-sensitive material, by conflict-of-interest charges stemming from the activities of the Clinton Foundation,  and by the multiple government and private sector jobs held by some of her senior State Department aides. Whatever the reason, or combinations, these Clinton missteps surely help explain her plummeting poll numbers among Democratic loyalists since they started making news.

As a result, Sanders’ priority during his first face-to-face meeting with his chief rival was to feed the party’s doubts about Clinton’s character. And if he was worried about lowering himself to the level of tawdry political hit men (and women!), Sanders could have told himself that the “Email-gate” monicker shamefully trivializes the central charges against Clinton. After all, her use of an unsecured private server for official State Department business practically invited disclosures of communications that could endanger national security. In addition, once Clinton was appointed to President Obama’s cabinet, the Foundation run by her and by Bill Clinton started looking like nothing so much as a machine for soliciting bribes from foreign governments.

It’s true that none of these allegations has been proven – plainly in part because so many thousand of the emails on Clinton’s private system have been destroyed and not yet recovered. But even if her conduct on both fronts stayed within the bounds of the law, the judgment it reflects is so shockingly poor that it does call her presidential qualifications into question. Consequently, Clinton’s troubles were, and remain, fair-game even for the most high-minded politician.

Sanders, however, not only dropped this ball. He all but pinned a seal of character approval on his rival, and in effect denied himself the option of bringing these matters up for the rest of primary season. And if Sanders can no longer even mention these possible Clinton transgressions and mistakes, the heat is now off her in terms of ethics and judgment – unless of course major new revelations emerge, or unless you think any of the three second-tier contenders will attack this dimension of the Clinton record.

In fact, although predictions are always hazardous, especially with the primaries still months off, barring the possibility of Clinton facing legal charges and consequences, the only major question surrounding the Democratic primaries now is whether Vice President Joe Biden joins the race. He’s much closer to Clinton ideologically than Sanders; therefore, he was well-positioned to present himself as “Hillary without the headaches” – of course without even having to voice this slogan. But when Bernie Sanders declared these headaches out of bounds for Democrats, to the full-throated cheers of the Las Vegas audience, chances are he finally sidelined the already ambivalent Biden as well.

Im-Politic: An Overlooked Clinton Email Scandal

Tags

2016 elections, Bill Clinton, CIA, classification, David Petraeus, emails, FBI, Hillary Clinton, Im-Politic, intelligence, John Deutch, Justice Department, national security, server, State Department

I’m not a national security lawyer and lack any on-the-job military or intelligence experience. But I can’t help thinking that one of the biggest reasons to be outraged about the scandal stemming from Hillary Clinton’s handling of official emails as Secretary of State is being missed.

There’s no doubt that Clinton’s campaign is on the line here. If the emails already found on her private server or thumb drive, or yet to be found or recovered, have contained classified material, she likely faces legal liabilities and would almost certainly need to bow out of the White House race. Two related, emerging Clinton defenses – that these materials actually weren’t sensitive in real-world terms, and that the government classifies too indiscriminately – should be moot points. Making and acting on such judgments isn’t an individual’s call. Ask retired top U.S. General and former CIA chief David Petraeus, and former Director of Central Intelligence John Deutch.

The former was convicted of sharing classified information with his lover, received a suspended sentence and a hefty fine, and avoided jail time thanks only to a plea bargain. The latter was found to have used inadequately protected computers in his home and while on travel to work with classified materials. An appointee of President Bill Clinton, Deutch avoided criminal prosecution due to a Justice Department decision considered so controversial that the former spy chief was still in legal jeopardy until January, 2001 – when he was spared by a president pardon.

Hillary Clinton, of course, set up an entire private computer system for handling official emails – an offense that’s arguably much more serious legally, and more threatening to national security, than those committed by Petraeus and Deutch.

Politically speaking, however, neither Petraeus nor Deutch was running for office – though Petraeus was often mentioned as a potential political star. Hillary Clinton’s quest for the presidency means that her likely computer problems aren’t only legal. Her judgment has already been called into question, and is sure to be slammed further the more she and her defenders insist that sensitive material wasn’t classified when she received it. Even if true, Clinton’s failure to understand that such memos and emails needed special protection mocks her claim to possess the experience needed to lead effectively.

But as badly as all of these charges reflect on Clinton, the under-appreciated scandal, as I see it, is that her cavalier attitude toward official information and procedures is now diverting valuable government manpower and resources that are urgently needed to handle much more dangerous threats to national security.

With the nation confronted with ISIS and other terrorist groups striking targets overseas and inspiring attacks in the United States, nuclear challenges from Iran and North Korea, and belligerence from China and Russia, it’s appalling that anyone in the intelligence community or the FBI or the State Department is spending any time or money on figuring out whether and to what extent Hillary Clinton broke the rules. And the longer these issues remain unresolved, the longer this unconscionable and dangerous waste of U.S. defense and intelligence wherewithal will continue.