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Following Up: Still No Biden Learning Curve in Sight on the Middle East or China

02 Wednesday Dec 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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America First, China, energy revolution, Following Up, fossil fuels, globalism, Iran, Iran nuclear deal, Israel, Joe Biden, Middle East, oil, Phase One, Saudi Arabia, Sunnis, tariffs, The New York Times, Thomas L. Friedman, Trade, trade war, Trump

Talk about great timing! Just two days ago, I analyzed New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman’s new offering warning Joe Biden not to rush back into the Iran nuclear deal because this step could undo lots of the progress made by President Trump’s America First foreign policy approach in greatly improving the prospects for advancing and protecting U.S. interests in the region.

And just this morning, Friedman has published a piece based on lengthy interview with the apparent President-elect making clear that he has no interest in learning these valuable lessons of the recent past. In addition, Biden confirmed that his China policy plans are just as dominated by cynical doubletalk these days as during the 2020 election campaign.

As Friedman argued on November 29, Mr. Trump’s message that Israel and the Arab world’s Sunni Muslim monarchies (mainly Saudi Arabia) should no longer count on the United States to fight their battles accomplished this critical objective: It

“forced Israel and the key Sunni Arab states to become less reliant on the United States and to think about how they must cooperate among themselves over new threats — like Iran — rather than fighting over old causes — like Palestine. This may enable America to secure its interests in the region with much less blood and treasure of its own. It could be Trump’s most significant foreign policy achievement.”

But as Biden made clear in his conversation with Friedman, he either can’t or refuses to understand the key development that validates the Trump approach – the U.S. fossil fuel production revolution that has eliminated America’s overriding reason for treating the Middle East as a vital national security interest, and enabled Washington to adopt a Trump-ian take-it-or-leave-it approach safely.

Not that domestic energy independence means that completely ignoring Middle East affairs is always the best response. But it certainly does mean much greater scope for Washington to advance objectives with varying degrees of importance (notably, preventing a nuclear-armed Iran from dominating the region) in ways far less risky and costly than the lengthy wars and immense military commitments that have dominated globalist strategy.

And as Friedman has indicated, the President has started lifting the United States off its dangerous hook by leaving its Middle East allies no choice but to stop quarreling over trifles (like the fate of the Palestinians) and work together to take responsibility for their own genuinely critical and shared interests.

Biden, however, still believes that America remains so dependent on “getting some stability” in this long-unstable region that deep entanglement in Middle East affairs is unavoidable. Just as worrisome: He’s laid out a genuinely Rube Goldberg-esque rationale for treating the Iran nuclear deal as his strategy’s linchpin. As Friedman describes his blueprint (based on this interview and other conversations with top Biden aides):

“[O]nce the [nuclear] deal is restored by both sides, there will have to be, in very short order, a round of negotiations to seek to lengthen the duration of the restrictions on Iran’s production of fissile material that could be used to make a bomb — originally 15 years — as well as to address Iran’s malign regional activities, through its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

“Ideally, the Biden team would like to see that follow-on negotiation include not only the original signatories to the deal — Iran, the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany and the European Union — but also Iran’s Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.”

To which the only reasonable response is “Good luck with that” – especially given the lack of consensus on Middle East goals among this highly diverse group of countries, and, equally important, the wildly varying stakes in success between governments inside and outside of the Middle East,

On China, the big and encouraging news is that Biden has decided not to remove the steep, sweeping Trump tariffs “immediately.” That position of course makes at best little sense given how disastrous he called these levies’ impact.

Otherwise, the former Vice President showed that his China policy statements could be even more thoroughly dominated by doubletalk and cluelessness than they were during the campaign.

Most troubling was how Biden contended (correctly) that “leverage” is the make-or-break factor in negotiating with China, and then quickly added “in my view, we don’t have it yet.” Even leaving aside Beijing’s at-least-suggestive decision to sign a Phase One trade deal whoppingly one-sided in favor of a country whose markets it needs desperately to secure adequate levels of prosperity, why did the apparent President-elect go out of his way to advertise supposed American weakness? Indeed, this perverse practice looks like an emerging habit of the Biden foreign policy camp.

As Biden told Friedman, he continues insisting that this leverage can be created in large measure by creating a “coherent strategy” behind which the United States and its European and Asian allies can unite. But as I’ve pointed out repeatedly, many of these countries (notably, Germany, Japan, and South Korea) have made too much money trading with China at the U.S.’ expense to support any position but a complete return to the pre-Trump era of actively coddling and enabling the People’s Republic.  (See, e.g., this analysis.)

At the same time, the apparent President-elect deserves credit for recognizing that gaining sufficient leverage to deal with China successfully requires (in Friedman’s words) “developing a bipartisan consensus at home for some good old American industrial policy — massive, government-led investments in American research and development, infrastructure and education to better compete with China.”

Finally, however, Biden still accepts the completely unjustified pre-Trump view that, without the kind of one-sided, pro-U.S. enforcement mechanism at the heart of the Phase One agreement, Washington can negotiate away most of China’s wide-ranging trade predation with precisely enough worded paper agreements. As I’ve explained, the only genuine hope for progress along these lines is the kind of dispute-resolution system set up in Phase One – in which Washington serves as judge, jury, and court of appeals. 

A few days before he spoke with Friedman, Biden told another journalist that he knows the nation and world are “totally different” from his Vice Presidential days and that therefore his administration would not be “a third Obama term.”  His conversation with Friedman, though, strongly indicated that he meant “except for the Middle East and China.”  

Following Up: Podcast to NYC Talk Radio Interview on Trump-ism without Trump Now On-Line

13 Friday Nov 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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conservatism, Conservative Populism, Following Up, Frank Morano, New York Mets, politics, Populism, Trump, WABC-FM

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast is on-line of my interview yesterday morning on WABC-FM radio with Frank Morano on…just about everything under the sun! Subjects ranged from the prospects of conservative populism staying nationally competitive in the United States with Donald Trump out of the White House to the emerging new era for Major League Baseball’s New York Mets.

Go to this website to listen and click on the play button on the “Future of Trumpism” episode. My segment begins just after the 24-minute mark.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Following Up: Podcast On-Line of Last Night’s National Radio Interview on Biden China Policy

10 Tuesday Nov 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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China, Following Up, Gordon G. Chang, health security, healthcare goods, Joe Biden, manufacturing, national security, supply chains, tariffs, tech, The John Batchelor Show, Trade, trade war, Trump

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast is now on-line of last night’s interview on John Batchelor’s nationally radio show on the future of U.S.-China relations. Click here for a timely conversation among John, co-host Gordon G. Chang, and me on whether a possible Biden administration will continue or end President Trump’s trade and tech wars with China, and keep his promises to bring back home key manufacturing supply chains.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Following Up: Nursing Home Deaths Still Dominating U.S. CCP Virus Fatalities

01 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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assisted living facilities, CCP Virus, CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, coronavirus, COVID 19, Following Up, Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, Kaiser Family Foundation, lockdowns, nursing homes, shutdowns, The New York Times, Worldometer.com, Wuhan virus

Given the recent U.S. surge in reported CCP Virus infections (but not yet U.S. deaths, according to sources such as the Worldometers.com website), I thought it was time to take another look at the nursing homes dimension of the pandemic. Depressingly, most of the evidence signals that it’s still at least as central to America’s virus fatality story.

RealityChek‘s last update, from mid-August, found that, since the pandemic’s early stages, the share of CCP Virus deaths linked with these facilities had more than doubled – to at least 41 percent. The phrase “at least” matters a lot because U.S. states’ reporting of these losses is far from uniform.

The New York Times, which had been doing an admirable job of tracking the scattered statistics that are available, hasn’t focused on the issue since then, but several others have stepped into the breach and some suggest that the problem has worsened.

In early September, the non-partisan Kaiser Family Foundation reported that “People in long-term care facilities make up 8 percent of coronavirus cases, but 45 percent of all COVID-19 deaths.” And worrisomely, Kaiser found signs, as of August, of an uptick.

Moreover, in a second September report, Kaiser examined another set of institutions in which senior citizens are heavily concentrated – assisted living facilities. It concluded that, despite data even less complete than for nursing homes, CCP Virus deaths were strongly increasing among residents and staff alike between June and August.

Similar figures were published in late August by the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, a think tank that bills itself as non-partisan but that looks like of right-of-center-ish to me. (“Not that there’s anything wrong with that.”). Actually, the organization published three sets of figures, each using a different methodology and each covering both nursing homes and assisted living facilities. The low end number pegged virus deaths associated with both at 42.1 percent, the middle at 42.7 percent, and the high end estimate was 46.9 percent.

What says the U.S. government, you might ask? Nothing terribly helpful. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does try to monitor the situation, and its data are more recent than those of the other two outfits – bringing the story up to October 18. But it only includes information from the relatively small number of states that voluntarily send in their numbers. That is, there’s no reporting requirement. The two private sector organizations discussed above use other sources, like press accounts – which are admittedly not definitive.

If you do look up these numbers, however, you’ll find that the agency pegs the nursing home death toll at 61,765 as of October 18. But you’ll also find that no overall U.S. death total is provided for that date.

The Worldometers site’s number for the day is 224,792. Do the math, and nursing home deaths as a share of total deaths comes to 27.47 percent. Yet not only is the result missing many states’ fatalities. It doesn’t include assisted living facilities, either.

I’ve argued in my previous posts that the high share of total U.S. virus-connected deaths is argues strongly for concentrating prevention and mitigation efforts on such unusually vulnerable populations, rather than the economy or the society as a whole. As new infections climb once more, and talk of major lockdown increase just as quickly, this still sounds like the strategy to choose.

Following Up: Podcast Regrets

22 Thursday Oct 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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baseball, Following Up, Frank Morano, national security, New York Mets, Populism, semiconductors, Steve Cohen, Trump, WABC AM

I was hoping to post a podcast of my interview last night on Frank Morano’s WABC-AM New York City radio show, but “technical difficulties” unfortunately kept on interrupting the segment. What a shame, because when our connection was working, we not only got in some good exchanges about my recent articles on America’s lost lead in semiconductor manufacturing and on (offbase) charges that President Trump is a phony populist. We also provided blinding insights about the state of play of billionaire Steve Cohen’s purchase of the New York Mets!

So I’ll hope to return to Frank’s show soon. And in the meantime, keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Following Up: New Podcasts On-Line Covering the U.S.-China Trade War & Beijing’s U.S. Politics Meddling

27 Thursday Aug 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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decoupling, economy, election 2020, elections, Following Up, Frank Morano, Gordon G. Chang, Obama, The American Conservative, The John Batchelor Show, Trade, trade war, Trump, WABC AM

I’m pleased to announce that the podcasts of two recent radio appearances are now on-line, and both focus on headline-making China-related issues.

The first is a recording of my interview last night on John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show.  Click here for an incisive update on the fast-evolving trade and tech conflict between the world’s two largest economies provided by John, co-host Gordon G. Chang, and me.

The second reprises my session this morning with Frank Morano of New York City’s WABC-AM radio spanning a wide range of topics, from comparisons of the Trump and Obama economies to my new American Conservative article on China’s massive and massively under-reported efforts to interfere with U.S. politics and elections.  Here’s the link; my segment comes in at about the 7:40 mark.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other events.

Following Up: Podcast of Batchelor Show Trade War Interview Now On-Line

18 Tuesday Aug 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Uncategorized

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China, Following Up, Gordon G. Chang, manufacturing supply chain, The John Batchelor Show, Trade, trade war

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast is now on-line of my interview last night on John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show.  Click here for a timely conversation among John, co-host Gordon G. Chang, and me about the current status of U.S.-China trade and broader economic relations, and how the wrangling between the two countries continues to reshape corporate supply chains all around the world – and specifically to encourage manufacturers to leave China.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Following Up: America’s CCP Virus Deaths Story is More of a Nursing Homes Story Than Ever

15 Saturday Aug 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Following Up, lockdowns, nursing homes, reopening, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Wuhan virus

Starting in late April, RealityChek reported a major characteristic of the CCP Virus’ impact on the United States with huge implications for the kinds of shutdown and reopening approaches have been pursued and supported by the federal government and individual states.

That characteristic: The wildly outsized share of U.S. virus deaths linked to nursing homes and similar facilities, among residents and employees alike. And the biggest implication: The high concentration of the worst of the CCP Virus problem in a relatively small number of locations among an especially vulnerable population strongly indicated that massive lockdowns of the entire economy and society were far from the best anti-virus strategies. The nursing homes-heavy nature of pandemic deaths also strengthened the argument that the overall damage from widepread lockdowns was exceeding their benefits, whether looking at the economy or public health, and especially both combined.

So since Americans have rightly become so worried about the recent rise in national virus infections and deaths – both in states that reopened relatively early, and in those that didn’t – it’s crucial to know that the nursing homes factor has grown steadily larger, at least according to one important source.

The nursing homes data for previous posts came from ABC News and The New York Times, and as RealityChek reported, as of late April, deaths related to these facilities amounted to about 20 percent of all virus fatalities (as reported by ABC). Three weeks later, the percentage was up to 35 (as reported by The Times). Just this past week, The Times updated its statistics and the share is up to at least 41 percent. (Exact certainty is impossible because the federal government doesn’t yet track these trends, and neither do some states. So the paper has assembled its own database.)

The state-by-state situation varies considerably in this incredibly diverse country. The state with the highest share of virus deaths linked to nursing homes is New Hampshire, at 81 percent. Nevada’s share is the lowest, at 17 percent, and The Times judged the information to be insufficient for six states: Wisconsin, Arizona, Alaska, Alabama, Hawaii, and Missouri.

Nonetheless, the phenomenon is widespread enough to result in nursing home-related deaths accounting for more than half of all CCP Virus-related deaths in 20 states.

And what’s especially interesting: Many of the states where deaths have climbed the most recently have been states with high percentages of nursing home deaths. Some leading examples: California (a nursing home death share of 41 percent), Florida (42 percent), Georgia (43 percent), Oregon (53 percent), Iowa (53 percent), Mississippi (42 percent), and North Carolina (47 percent). At the same time, Texas has seen deaths increase steadily since early July, and remain elevated, but a relatively small 31 percent of its total fatalities have been nursing home-related. (The overall death rate figures come from The Washington Post‘s tracking feature, which is the best for U.S. data that I’ve seen.) 

One of my favorite expressions (and pieces of advice) holds that when everything is a priority, then othing is a priority. It’s easy to look at the immense nursing homes factor in America’s CCP Virus deaths picture, and the continuing popularity of sweeping lockdowns, and conclude that little of the country’s leadership is familiar with it.

Following Up: Video of CNBC Interview on TikTok Ban and China Tech Wars Now On-Line!

13 Thursday Aug 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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China, CNBC, Following Up, social media, tech, TikTok, Trump

Sorry for the delay here!  The streaming video of my appearance last Friday on CNBC is now on-line.  In fact, it’s been on-line since Friday afternoon.  The good news:  It’s still timely!

So click here to see the segment, which focuses on the broad implications of President Trump’s recent decision last week to ban popular Chinese social media app TikTok from U.S. markets unless a U.S.-owned buyer comes through toute de suite.  Also:  Be sure to watch till the very end!

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

 

 

 

 

Following Up: A Pathway Out of the History Wars

23 Tuesday Jun 2020

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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African Americans, American Museum of Natural History, Andrew Jackson, Christopher Columbus, Confederate monuments, Following Up, imperialism, Lafayette Park, Matthias Baldwin, Native-Americans, racism, slavery, The New York Times, Theodore Roosevelt

I wasn’t originally planning on returning to the Confederate monuments/history wars issue so soon, but it’s the gift that keeps on giving for a blogger, and the last day or so has been filled with new developments.

Oddly, I’m going to tack positive today – despite the continuation of attempts at vandalism and mob violence (as took place in Lafayette Park, right across from the White House, last night); despite the recent example of both vandalism and rank stupidity in Philadelphia; despite the ongoing pigheadedness and possibly worse of the stand-patters, who seem to believe that removing memorials on public grounds even to the vilest racists always amounts to an “erasure of history”; and despite the virtual certainty of more of all of the above to come.

I’m feeling optimistic today because my beloved native New York City, and an institution that gave me some of my most terrific childhood memories, has just pointed the way toward a genuinely adult way to handle these contoversies.

As you might have read, the City’s American Museum of Natural History has just decided to take down the statue of Theodore Roosevelt that’s stood in front of its Fifth Avenue entrance since 1940. The rationale – flanking the mounted T.R. are statues of a native American and an African warrior whose depiction on foot supposedly symbolizes white supremacy and imperialism.

During all my years living in and around Manhattan, I never regarded the statue as a symbol of anything except the 26th President’s well known egotism and conspicuous lionization of “the strenuous life,” as well as of the central role played by his family in establishing the museum and turning it into a world-class institution to begin with. And I certainly never looked at the native American and African warrior figures as T.R.’s inferiors. In fact, they each struck me as being handsome and dignified.

At the same time, the more I’ve thought about it, the more dubious and specifically paternalistic the whole tableau has appeared (and I am a huge Theodore Roosevelt fan). So I can understand how others, especially non-whites, could be deeply dissatisfied and downright offended.

So I’m far from condemning the museum’s decision as yet another monument to stupidity or political correctness run riot, or what have you. But the more I read about these moves, the more encouraged I was. First, the museum (which is privately run, but receives some funding from the City and New York State, and therefore is partly accountable to the public), didn’t simply resolve to haul the statue away. In order to honor Roosevelt’s justified reputation as a conservationist by adding an entire exhibit hall to the parts of the museum already named for the former President In other words, the museum recognized that T.R., like many of the relatively easy History War cases I’ve written about, was more than an imperious explorer and white hunter.

An even more promising strategy for honoring such figures has been suggested by Roosevelt’s descendants. As reported in The New York Times story linked above, one of his great-grandsons, a museum trustee, issued this statement on behalf of the entire family:

“The world does not need statues, relics of another age, that reflect neither the values of the person they intend to honor nor the values of equality and justice. The composition of the Equestrian Statue does not reflect Theodore Roosevelt’s legacy. It is time to move the statue and move forward.”

Other than striking an unusually wise and magnanimous tone, the statement suggests the following exciting possibility (and one I also hinted at in my discussion of the Pierre Beauregard statue in New Orleans): Why not replace the current statue with one that’s not a “relic of another age” and “move forward: with one that reflects the dimensions of Roosevelt’s legacy (in this case, his devotion to naturalism) that no patriotic American could possibly question?

Moreover, why not use the same approach to the Abraham Lincoln statues in Boston and in Washington, D.C., which have been criticized because they include a kneeling newly emancipated slave? Wouldn’t such monuments better honor Lincoln if they portrayed the freeman figure standing up and, perhaps, shaking the former President’s hand?  

As for statues of more legitimately controversial figures, they should be seen as candidates for more somber modifications that would nonetheless both accomplish needed educational aims without overlooking the case for singling them out for public display.

For example, it’s true that Christopher Columbus literally expanded humanity’s horizons and helped set in motion the long sequence of events that led to the United States’ founding. But he and his brother also mistreated the peoples they found in the Caribbean brutally, and (inadvertantly to be sure) opened the door to centuries of mass death, oppression, enslavement, and other forms of misery for the Western Hemisphere’s entire indigenous population. Maybe representations of these crimes and tragedies, which sadly are baked into U.S. history as well, could be erected besides Columbus statues? 

And why shouldn’t the various monuments to Andrew Jackson (like the statue that attracted the Lafayette Square vandals’ ire) similarly be replaced with a representation acknowledging that he was not only a national military hero and savior of the union (during the 1832 nullification crisis), with some legitimate claim as an advocate of working class Americans, but also, as critics charge, a slave-owner and active supporter of such servitude – not to mention an almost inhuman scourge of native Americans. 

When it comes to public art, for the sake of the nation’s spirit and self-respect, there’s nothing wrong with and indeed considerable value in a little romanticizing or glorification of individuals meriting much credit for creating an American national story that’s unmistakably a success story from every possible standpoint. But where the legacies are less overwhelmingly positive, it would be equally worthwhile to develop ways of displaying major virtues alongside important warts in statues, monuments, and plaques.

The challenges to be met are preserving the symbolic power of displays commemorating figures as genuinely heroic as inherently flawed human beings can possibly be, courageously facing facts about more ambiguous legacies, and calling and weeding out genuine villains such as traitors.

That is, all involved in creating America’s public art – which should be all Americans and their elected representatives – should avoid the temptation to champion the kinds of caricature bound to fuel considerable disillusionment and even contempt. And by meeting this challenge, today’s Americans would leave an invaluable legacy of their own for future generations.

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