(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A U.S. Trade Figures Update with a Special Focus on China & Trump “Foe” EU

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Canada, China, EU, European Union, exports, goods trade, high tech goods trade, imports, manufacturing, merchandise trade, services trade, tariffs, Trade, Trade Deficits, trade surpluses, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The May U.S. trade figures are no longer exactly new, having been released July 6. But with a big round of U.S. tariffs just imposed on China, and many more possibly on the way (along with automotive trade curbs that would affect most major U.S. economic competitors), they’re still incredibly newsy. So here’s a quick rundown of some highlights closely related to recent headlines, starting with the China figures.

>The enormous American goods trade deficit with China shot up by 18.68 percent sequentially, from $27.96 billion to $33.19 billion. The May shortfall was the biggest since January ($35.95 billion) and the increase was the greatest since May, 2016 (19.49 percent).

>The widening of the trade gap was largely driven by a 14.56 percent monthly jump in U.S. merchandise imports from China, to $43.80 billion.

>That level was also the highest since January ($45.79 billion) and the increase was the biggest since March, 2015 (30.33 percent).

>U.S. goods exports to China rose on month by only 1.69 percent, to $10.61 billion.

>Year-to-date, the merchandise deficit is running 9.92 percent higher than last year’s rate – which resulted in a record $375.58 billion bilateral shortfall.

>Also, year-to-date, U.S. goods exports to China have increased by 7.79 percent, while the far larger amount of imports is up by 9.36 percent.

>The trade figures for another competitor in President Trump’s cross-hairs, the European Union (EU) tell a different story. In May, the goods trade deficit with this grouping – labeled a trade “foe” by Mr. Trump – declined by 8.57 percent, from $14.64 billion to $13.39 billion.

>U.S. merchandise exports to the EU advanced by 4.34 percent sequentially in May, to $27.97 billion, and American sales to the group have been improving steadily since November. Indeed, on a year-to-date basis, they’ve improved by a healthy 14.02 percent.

>The merchandise deficit, however, has risen by 14.77 percent year-to-date as of May, with the larger amount of imports up nearly as fast: 14.27 percent.

>The U.S. goods deficit with Canada, another country that has drawn Mr. Trump’s ire, nearly doubled on month in May, from $806 million to $1.50 billion. But because this shortfall has fallen to such low levels in recent years, largely because of reduced American energy imports, these figures now tend to be volatile.

>U.S. merchandise exports to Canada – still America’s largest single country trade partner – increased 4.42 percent on month in May, to $26.81 billion, while goods imports rose by 8.53 percent, to $28.31 billion

>But although that import figure was the highest such monthly total since December, 2014’s $28.83 billion, the year-to-date American bilateral merchandise deficit has plummeted by 40.78 percent, from $9.78 billion to $6.08 billion.

>U.S. goods exports to Canada year-to-date are up by 4.98 percent, as of May, and goods imports have risen by 6.02 percent.

>U.S. global trade flows set a series of multi-month bests and all-time records in May.

>The combined May goods and services deficit fell by 6.57 percent sequentially to $43.05 billion – the lowest such total since October, 2016’s $42.64 billion.

>The goods deficit declined by 3.77 percent on month to $65.79 billion – the lowest since last August’s $65.49 billion.

>On the services side, the May surplus of $22.74 billion bested the April result by 2.04 percent, and fell just short of the record $22.77 billion recorded in February, 2015.

>Total exports, which rose sequentially by 1.94 percent, to $215.33 billion, hit their fourth straight monthly record.

>U.S. goods exports, which increased on month by 2.62 percent, to $144.89 billion, set their third straight such record.

>U.S. services exports, which advanced by 0.56 percent, to $70.44 billion, set their 13^th straight monthly record.

>U.S. non-oil goods exports (pre-inflation) in May climbed by 2.75 percent on month, to $129.98 billion, and set their third straight monthly record.

>U.S. current dollar oil exports inched up by 0.77 percent sequentially in May, to $14.18 billion – the second best performance on record after December, 2013’s $14.27 billion.

>The immense American manufacturing trade deficit in May continued its march toward the $1 trillion-dollar annual mark, and a new yearly record.

>The May manufacturing trade deficit totaled $85.05 billion – its fourth all-time highest, and an increase of 8.95 percent sequentially.

>Manufactures exports improved on month by 4.89 percent, from $96.72 billion to $101.45 billion. But the much greater amount of manufactures imports increased even more – by 6.71 percent, from $174.79 billion to $186.50 billion.

>Year-to-date, the manufacturing trade shortfall reached $397.48 billion in May – 11.89 percent higher than the comparable level in 2017, when the gap finished the year at $929.14 billion.

>Year-to-date manufacturing exports have increased by 7.38 percent, but imports are 9.27 percent higher.

>America’s trade deficit in advanced technology products also keeps heading to a new annual record.

>On month, the chronic shortfall in this category rose by 8.44 percent, to $10.32 billion.

>That increase brought the year-to-date deficit to $45.37 billion –32.62 percent higher than the comparable total last year, when this full-year trade gap reached $110.93 billion.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: As Beijing Talks Begin, Lower March U.S. China Trade Deficit Reported – But the Drop Looks Seasonal

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Canada, Census Bureau, China, EU, European Union, exports, high tech goods trade, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing trade deficit, Mexico, NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement, recovery, South Korea, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The onset of top-level U.S.-China trade talks in Beijing roughly coincided with the release of the March monthly U.S. trade figures, which showed that the monthly American merchandise deficit fell to its lowest level ($25.88 billion) since the previous April ($27.63 billion). Nonetheless, this new figure was the second biggest such total for March on record, behind 2015’s $31.24 billion. In addition, the U.S. goods deficit with China is still running 15.52 percent ahead of 2017’s record yearly rate.

Partly as a result of the China improvement, the combined U.S. goods and services trade shortfall in March plunged to its lowest monthly level ($49.86 billion) since last September’s $45.30 billion. And the sequential decline of 15.22 percent was the biggest since the 17.47 percent plunge in March, 2016. March’s totals for combined U.S. exports, goods exports, and high tech goods exports were all monthly records ($208.53 billion, $140.88 billion, and $34.85 billion, respectively). The all-time high in total exports was the third monthly record in the last four months. And the sequential high tech goods gain was a new all-time best (33.95 percent) even for this volatile category.

America’s merchandise trade with Canada racked up its largest monthly surplus on record ($306.1 million), but the U.S. goods deficit with its other NAFTA trade partner, Mexico, jumped to its biggest monthly total ever ($8.05 billion). Amid trans-Atlantic wrangling over American metals tariffs, new monthly records were also set for U.S. goods exports to and imports from the European Union ($29.85 billion and $41.99 billion, respectively), while the March U.S. goods export figure for South Korea was also the best on record ($5.09 billion).

America’s huge and chronic manufacturing trade deficit rose from $73.21 billion in February to $74.53 billion in March, and stayed on course to exceed $1 trillion this year. The March figure also showed that the drag on the current economic recovery from the growth of the Made in Washington trade deficit – that portion of U.S. trade flows most heavily influenced by trade deals and other trade policy decisions – dipped from 18.37 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of last year (or $538.38 billion in constant dollars) to 17.66 percent ($535.09 billion in constant dollars) in the first quarter of this year.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (March) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>As a top-level Trump administration delegation arrived in Beijing for possibly contentious trade talks with China, the Census Bureau reported that the massive American goods deficit with the PRC – whose reduction is a leading on the U.S. goal – fell in March by 11.57 percent to its lowest level ($25.87 billion) since the previous April ($27.63 billion).

>At the same time, because U.S.-China goods trade is strongly influenced by seasonal factors, it was also noteworthy that this new March total was the second highest of all time – behind only 2015’s $31.24 billion.

>In addition, even this latest improvement left the bilateral merchandise shortfall running 15.52 percent ahead of last year’s rate, which produced an annual record of $375.23 billion.

>American goods exports to China jumped by 26.27 percent sequentially in March – the biggest such increase since the 32.70 percent advance in October, 2016 – to reach $12.38 billion.

>U.S. goods imports from China fell sequentially in March for the second straight month, to $38.26 billion. That total was the lowest monthly figure since last May’s $41.80 billion.

>The monthly improvement in goods trade with China helped push the combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit down 15.22 percent sequentially, from an upwardly adjusted $57.74 billion in February to $48.96 billion. The February figure was the highest since October, 2008.

>The monthly drop, moreover, was the biggest since March, 2016’s 17.47 percent.

>U.S. total exports hit a new record in March, with the $208.53 billion figure standing 2.04 percent higher than February’s downwardly revised figure of $204.35 billion. In addition, this was the third all-time monthly total export high achieved in the last four months.

>America’s merchandise exports reached an all-time high in March as well, rising 2.37 percent from February’s downwardly revised $137.13 billion to $140.88 billion.

>Another monthly trade best: high tech goods exports. At $34.85 billion, they were 33.95 percent higher than February’s $26.02 billion. High tech goods trade numbers tend to be volatile, but this advance was the greatest on record.

>Largely as a result, the high tech goods trade deficit sank 23.04 percent on month, from $7.93 billion to $6.11 billion – the second straight post-May, 2017 low.

>High tech imports soared on month in March, too – by 20.64 percent, to $40.96 billion. That was the biggest such increase since last March’s 24.58 percent. And the total was the biggest ever for a March.

>The high tech goods deficit is running fully 33.89 percent ahead of last year’s rate – which resulted in the biggest such shortfall on record.

>U.S. merchandise trade with Canada reached its own milestone in March – the biggest monthly American surplus of all time ($306.1 million). In February, the United States ran a deficit of $404.2 million.

>American goods exports to Canada surged by 15.26 percent on month in March, to $27.10 billion. That was the highest monthly total since October, 2014’s $28.39 billion.

>U.S. goods imports from Canada rose robustly, too – by 12.04 percent, to $26.80 billion. That was their highest monthly total since June, 2015’s $27.34 billion.

>The U.S. merchandise deficit with Canada is running 44.72 percent behind last year’s rate.

>The March trade picture for America’s other NAFTA partner, Mexico, was strikingly different. The U.S. goods deficit of $8.05 billion set a new monthly record.

>U.S. merchandise exports to Mexico rose by 8.31 percent on month, to $21.91 billion (the third highest total on record). But merchandise imports climbed by 13.96 percent, to a new record $29.96 billion.

>The merchandise deficit with Mexico is running 9.01 percent ahead of last year’s pace, which at $71.06 billion was the second highest annual total ever (after 2007’s $74.80 billion).

>Amid continued feuding between the United States and the European Union (EU), America’s merchandise trade deficit with the grouping inched up by 0.82 percent on month in March, from $12.05 billion to $12.15 billion.

>Though this total was far from an all-time high, both U.S. goods exports to and imports from the EU set new monthly records in March – $29.85 billion and $41.99 billion, respectively.

>The 19.51 percent percent monthly export increase was the biggest since March, 2011’s 22.51 percent.

>America’s goods deficit with the EU is running 17.71 percent ahead of last year’s rate, which resulted in the second highest annual figure ever ($151.42 billion, with the record being 2015’s $155.66 billion).

>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit with South Korea soared by 58.61 percent on month in March, to $1.08 billion. But this total was at the low end of the recent range. Moreover, in February, the goods shortfall cratered by 65.28 percent.

>The immense and longstanding American manufacturing trade deficit 73.21 to 74.53

>More notably, American goods exports to South Korea climbed to $5.09 billion – a new all-time high. Further, the 18.53 percent sequential advance was the fastest monthly rate of increase since the previous March’s 22.04 percent.

>U.S. merchandise imports from South Korea rose even faster on month in March – by 23.96 percent, to $6.17 billion. That increase, however, followed a 12.05 percent monthly decrease, repeating a roller-coaster pattern that has been typical for the first quarter of the year.

>Nonetheless, the year-on-year shrinkage of the U.S. merchandise trade gap with South Korea has been impressive – 64.30 percent.

>Volatility has also marked the immense and longstanding U.S. manufacturing trade deficit. After sinking dramatically in February from January’s $86.62 billion (the second highest monthly total on record, following last October’s $88.98 billion), the shortfall rebounded by 1.80 percent – from $73.21 billion to $74.53 billion.

>Manufactures exports increased robustly on month, by 18.56 percent, to $10.5.35 billion. But the far greater amount of manufactures imports rose by 10.99 percent, to $179.88 billion.

>This manufacturing trade gap is now running 13.87 percent ahead of last year’s pace – which produced a record total $927.48 billion annual total.

>As a result, if current trends continue, the manufacturing trade shortfall will top $1 trillion this year.

>The March trade figures permit calculation of the drag exerted as of the first quarter of 2018 on the current American economic recovery of the growth of the Made in Washington trade deficit. This consists of the trade flows, adjusted for inflation, that are most heavily influenced by U.S. trade agreements and similar trade policy decisions – i.e., the nation’s non-oil goods trade.

>As of the fourth quarter of last year, this trade drag had reduced cumulative recovery growth by 18.37 percent, or $538.38 billion in constant dollars.

>In the first quarter of this year, the drag was lower – 17.66 percent, or $535.09 billion in constant dollars.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: On Eve of Trump Tariffs, a Big Increase for the (January) U.S. Trade Deficit

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Canada, China, European Union, exports, high tech goods trade, imports, manufacturing, merchandise trade, Mexico, NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement, oil, South Korea, tariffs, Trade, Trade Deficits, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The U.S. monthly trade deficit surged in January to its highest level ($56.6o billion) since October, 2008 ($60.19 billion) – when the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy sparked a worldwide financial and economic panic.

New all-time records were set by monthly services exports ($66.66 billion) and imports ($46.78 billion), and December results for both were revised significantly upward (0.77 percent for the former, and 2.07 percent for the latter). The trade deficit in petroleum products jumped by 116.64 percent on month in January – the biggest sequential percentage increase ever – to $7.08 billion. That total was a post-March ($8.28 billion) high.

America’s January merchandise trade deficit in goods ($76.49 billion) was a post-July, 2008 ($77.63 billion) high, while the trade gaps in manufacturing and in goods with China bounced back on month to their second highest all-time totals ($35.95 billion and $86.62 billion, respectively). Moreover, U.S. merchandise exports to China sank by their greatest percentage on month (28.05 percent) since January, 1999 (43.37 percent). Total exports fell on month (by 1.30 percent) for the first time since October, and combined goods and services imports dipped fractionally (to $257.51 billion) from the upwardly revised record set in December.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (January) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>The combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit rose on month in January to its biggest total ($53.91 billion) since October, 2008 ($60.19 billion) – when the world economy teetered on the brink of meltdown due to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

>The figure represented a 4.99 percent increase from a December figure of $53.91 billion that was revised up by an unusually large 1.49 percent.

>January saw all-time records for monthly services exports and imports. The former improved sequentially from by 0.41 percent, from $66.39 billion to $66.66 billion, while the latter grew by 0.38 percent, from $46.60 billion to $46.78 billion.

>At the same time, both services trade figures also saw major revisions in the December – both upward. The exports number was raised by 0.77 percent, and imports upgraded by an enormous 2.07 percent.

>January’s trade deficit increase was led in relative terms by the nation’s oil trade deficit – which more than doubled sequentially, from $3.27 billion to $7.08 billion. That was the highest such total since last March’s $8.28 billion.

>Partly as a result, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit widened sequentially in January by 3.79 percent, to $76.49 billion – its highest such level since July, 2008’s $77.63 billion.

>But manufacturing contributed significantly to the rise in the overall trade deficit and the merchandise shortfall as well. Its chronic trade shortfall ballooned by 14.54 percent on month to hit $86.62 billion – just shy of October’s record of $88.98 billion.

>Manufacturing exports slid by 8.99 percent sequentially in January, from $94.89 billion to $86.36 billion, while imports were off by only 0.08 percent, from $173.13 billion to $172.99 billion.

>In turn, helping to fuel this deterioration in the manufacturing trade balance was the 16.70 percent worsening of the U.S. merchandise deficit with China. The January figure of $35.93 billion was the second highest of all time, too – trailing only September, 2015’s $36.29 billion. The increase, moreover, was the biggest since May, 2016’s 19.43 percent. 

>Mainly responsible for the China trade deficit’s increase was a 28.05 percent nosedive in U.S. goods exports to the strongly growing People’s Republic. Although the decrease followed a record December export total of $13.67 billion, it was still the biggest such percentage drop since January, 1999 (43.37 percent). 

>The $9.84 billion in U.S. goods sales to China in January, moreover, was the lowest such figure since June’s $9.71 billion. 

>U.S. merchandise imports from China rose – by 2.95 percent, to $45.79 billion.

>Total goods exports were down in January by 1.30 percent (to $200.91 billion) from December’s upwardly revised $203.61 billion. The drop was the first since October.

>Total imports in January dipped only fractionally – to $257.510 billion – from December’s upwardly revised record of $257.514 billion.

>The high tech goods trade deficit rose by 14.25 percent on month in January, from $10.06 billion to $11.49 billion.

>High tech exports plunged on month by 18.11 percent to $27.46 billion – a post February, 2017 ($25.39 billion) low, and the biggest falloff since January, 2017’s 19.01 percent.

>High tech goods imports sank, too – by 10.64 percent, to $38.95 billion. That was the biggest drop since last February’s 13.31 percent.

>As the Trump administration’s efforts to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) face an uncertain future, America’s merchandise trade deficit with Canada shot up by 65.04 percent on month in January, to $3.64 billion. That’s its highest level since December, 2014 ($4.07 billion).

>Yet the U.S. goods trade shortfall with Mexico decreased by 23.03 percent – to $4.14 billion. That’s the lowest such total since last January ($3.95 billion).

>Trade tensions with the European Union (EU) seem to growing as well, due mainly to the Trump administration’s announcement of steel and aluminum tariffs. In January, however, the merchandise trade gap with the EU fell by 13.88 percent, to $13.62 billion.

>President Trump is also hoping to revamp the bilateral U.S.-South Korea trade agreement (KORUS). In January, America’s goods trade deficit with South Korea hit $1.97 billion – a 57.57 percent monthly rise. At the same time, December’s $1.25 billion goods trade gap was the smallest since December, 2016’s $1.17 billion.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Great Oil Month and Still the July Trade Deficit Worsened

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Canada, China, EU, European Union, exports, high tech goods trade, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, merchandise trade, NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement, oil, recovery, South Korea, Trade, trade deficit, trade surplus, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The combined U.S. goods and services rose sequentially in July (by just 0.33 percent) for the first time in three months even though America’s oil trade improved so much that in inflation-adjusted terms, oil exports set a new record high ($10.87 billion), and the oil trade deficit set a new record low ($6.80 billion). Moreover, in current-dollar terms, July’s $3.09 billion oil trade deficit was a 30.78 percent drop from June and the smallest since May, 2016’s $3.03 billion.

Nonetheless, not only did the monthly overall trade deficit worsen slightly; the seven-month year-to-date total ($319.10 billion) is up 9.60 percent from last year’s level, and the highest such figure since 2012 ($324.83 billion). Moreover, most of the bilateral goods shortfalls with countries that have drawn President Trump’s ire on trade rose on month, including Canada (where it more than doubled), South Korea (up 4.26 percent, partly on a 3.71 percent U.S. exports drop), and China (up 2.99 percent to a post-August, 2016 high). In addition, America’s goods sales to Canada sank on month in July by 13.85 percent – their biggest such decline since July, 2006’s 20.38 percent. The merchandise deficit with Mexico, however, fell steeply for the second straight month.

The huge, chronic manufacturing trade deficit rebounded sequentially by 4.61 percent as both exports and imports fell, but stayed 6.19 percent ahead of last year’s record pace, and although the volatile high tech goods gap tra and the volatile high tech goods trade gap dropped on month by 7.51 percent, it’s running 31.12 percent of last year’s rate and looks poised to reach an all-time annual high as well. The trade drag on the current, still sluggish American economic recovery dipped through the second quarter of this year, but has still cut its cumulative real growth by 17.31 percent, or nearly $463 billion.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (July) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>July saw record U.S. monthly real high oil exports ($10.87 billion), a record low real oil trade deficit ($6.80 billion), and the smallest current-dollar oil trade deficit ($3.09 billion) since last August ($3.03 billion). But none were enough to prevent the combined July goods and services trade deficit from rising slightly on month – by 0.33 percent, to $43.69 billion, from a downwardly revised $43.54 billion.

>The new inflation-adjusted oil exports record represented their second straight all-time high, beating June’s $10.35 billion mark by 4.95 percent.

>The new record low monthly after-inflation oil deficit bested the previous low of $7.56 billion, set in May, 2016, by 9.98 percent. It also represented a 14.10 percent drop from the June total.

>The July current-dollar oil deficit was 30.78 percent lower than June’s $4.47 billion level.

>July current-dollar oil exports rose 4.45 percent on month, to $10.24 billion. That was their highest level since November, 2014 ($11.14 billion).

>July current-dollar oil imports fell 6.58 percent, to $13.33 billion. That was their lowest level since last December ($13.82 billion).

>July also generally saw rising sequential trade deficits with countries identified by President Trump as difficult U.S. trade partners.

>As the second round of talks to redo the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) concluded, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with Canada more than doubled on month, from $461 million to $1.01 billion. This represented the biggest percentage worsening of the deficit since July, 2016 – when a $25 million U.S. surplus turned into a $716 million shortfall.

>U.S. goods exports to Canada sank sequentially by 13.85 percent, to $21.88 billion – the biggest such decrease since July, 2006 (20.38 percent).

>It’s true that the July monthly surge in the merchandise trade deficit Canada followed a June plunge of 66.29 percent. But on a year-to-date basis, the American shortfall has nearly quadrupled, to $11.35 billion.

>A contrast was provided by the American trade ledger with Mexico, where the goods trade deficit fell significantly on month for the second straight month. The 17.37 percent sequential decrease drove the shortfall down to $4.92 billion – its lowest level since January’s $3.95 billion.

>U.S. goods exports to Mexico fell by 7.55 percent, to $19.74 billion, from a June level of $21.35 billion that was the second highest ever. But imports fell even faster – by 9.70 percent, to $24.66 billion. That was the biggest such drop since November, 2015’s 15.06 percent.

>All the same, the on a year-to-date basis, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with Mexico is 11.94 percent higher than last year’s figure.

>All told, the total U.S. merchandise deficit with its NAFTA partners is 32.30 percent higher over the first seven months of this year than during the first seven months of last year.

>President Trump is also seeking to revise the 2012 U.S. bilateral trade agreement with South Korea, where the American merchandise deficit expanded by 4.26 percent on month in July, to $1.93 billion.

>U.S. goods exports to South Korea dropped by 3.71 percent sequentially, to $4.07 billion, and imports fell by 1.29 percent, to $6.00 billion.

>Year-to-date, the merchandise trade shortfall with South Korea is down by an impressive 30.31 percent so far in 2017. But on a monthly basis, it’s nearly 3.5 times greater than in March, 2012, when the trade agreement went into effect.

>Despite the rise of the yuan in recent months, the American merchandise trade deficit with China continued on its long-time upward track. In July, the shortfall set its second straight post-August, 2016 high – $33.56 billion – as it grew 2.99 percent on month.

>U.S. merchandise exports to China increased by 3.45 percent in July, to $10.05 billion. Goods imports from China rose by 3.10 percent, to $43.60 billion. That figure represented the highest such level since October, 2016’s $43.79 billion.

>Year-to-date, the U.S. merchandise deficit with China is up 6.80 percent as of July.

>More bad July trade news came from America’s commerce with the European Union (EU). The U.S. merchandise trade deficit rose by 7.90 percent on month to $13.45 billion – its highest monthly level since last November ($14.80 billion).

>U.S. goods exports to the EU tumbled by 9.80 percent, to $21.44 billion. That’s the lowest such total since January’s $21.29 billion, and the biggest decrease in these sales since July, 2016 (10.01 percent).

>America’s merchandise imports from the EU were off on month by only 3.71 percent. The resulting $34.89 billion total was the lowest since February’s $32.39 billion, and the biggest such drop since January’s 6.68 percent.

>At the same time, on a year-to-date basis, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with the EU is only 0.95 percent higher than its comparable 2016 level.

>American manufacturing had another poor month in July as well. Its massive and chronic trade deficit rebounded sequentially by 4.61 percent to $79.64 billion.

>Manufacturing exports plummeted by 8.24 percent on month, from $95.41 billion to $87.54 billion. But imports were off only 2.54 percent, from $171.54 billion to $167.18 billion.

>Year-to-date, the manufacturing trade shortfall has widened by 6.19 percent, from $482.13 billion to $512 billion – indicating that it will set yet another annual record. (Last year’s was $853.07 billion.)

>High tech merchandise trade generated some goods news for the United States in July, at least over the short term. The deficit – which can be volatile on month – fell sequentially by 7.50 percent, from $8.82 billion to $8.16 billion.

>High tech goods exports fell by 5.13 percent, to $29.23 billion, while imports decreased by 5.66 percent, to $37.38 billion.

>Year-to-date, however, the high tech goods trade shortfall is up by 31.12 percent, and seems headed for a new annual record of its own.

>Thanks to revisions in a separate data series kept by the Census Bureau, the drag on U.S. growth during this so-far weak recovery created by the Made in Washington portion of the U.S. trade deficit dipped as of the second quarter of 2017.

>This deficit consists of U.S. trade flows heavily influenced by trade agreements and other trade policy decisions – thus omitting services and oil trade – that are then adjusted for inflation.

>Between the second quarter of 2009 – when the current recovery officially began – and the second quarter of 2017, the increase in this Made in Washington deficit has cut cumulative U.S. growth by 17.31 percent, or $462.82 billion out of $2.6744 billion in real GDP expansion.

>The previous calculable trade drag figure was $463.97 billion (17.47 percent) cut from $2.6551 trillion in cumulative real recovery era growth.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Mixed Bag of May U.S. Trade Figures

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(What's Left of) Our Economy. trade, Census Bureau, China, exports, Germany, high tech goods trade, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods trade deficit, recovery, services trade, South Korea, Trump

America’s goods and services trade deficit decreased by 2.27 percent sequentially in May, to $46.51 billion, as services exports ($64.82 billion) and services imports ($43.84 billion) both hit all-time monthly highs. Combined exports rose 0.45 percent on month to $192.03 billion – their best total since April, 2015 ($192.59 billion).

But the huge, chronic U.S. manufacturing trade shortfall jumped by 13.92 percent, to $80.10 billion, its second highest level ever (after last November’s $80.75 billion). Merchandise exports to South Korea – whose free trade deal with the United States has been faulted by President Trump – rose sequentially to a record monthly level of $4.49 billion. Yet the immense U.S. goods trade deficit with China soared by 14.39 percent, to an eight-month high of $31.61 billion. The jump came amid signs of higher overall U.S.-China tensions.

And the overall year-to-date U.S. trade deficit of $233.07 billion was its highest since January-May, 2012’s $238 billion, when growth was somewhat faster. In fact, the cumulative trade drag on the long but weak American economic recovery (as of the first quarter of 2017) remained above 10.50 percent (representing nearly $230 billion in lost inflation-adjusted growth). Nearly twice as great has been the growth hit from the increase in the Made in Washington real non-oil goods deficit was still nearly twice as great.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (May) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>In May, the total U.S. trade deficit dropped by 2.27 percent, from a downwardly adjusted $47.59 billion to $46.51 billion.

>Highlighting the results were record services exports ($64.82 billion) and services imports ($43.84 billion). The services trade surplus improved by 1.04 percent on month, from April’s upwardly adjusted $20.77 billion to $20.99 billion.

>The total trade deficit’s narrowing was also helped by the best monthly combined goods and services exports figure ($192.03 billion) since April, 2015’s $192.59 billion. The May total export level was 0.45 percent higher than April’s upwardly adjusted $191.17 billion.

> Total imports inched down by a mere 0.09 percent in May, from April’s upwardly adjusted $238.76 billion to $238.54 billion.

>Another May record: U.S. merchandise exports to South Korea, whose 2012 trade agreement has been criticized by President Trump. These American goods sales reached $4.49 billion – a 1.48 percent increase over April’s $4.43 billion.

>U.S. goods imports from South Korea declined by 3.65 percent on month in May, to $5.96 billion, and the merchandise deficit plummeted by 16.60 percent, to $1.46 billion. That total, however, is still nearly three times greater than the trade gap when the trade treaty went into effect in March, 2012 ($561 million).

>At the same time, as Mr. Trump has soured on China for North Korea-related reasons, the PRC’s mammoth goods trade surplus with the United States jumped 14.39 percent sequentially in May to $31.69 billion – an eight month high.

>U.S. goods exports to China climbed by 3.59 percent sequentially in May, but imports were up much faster – by 11.56 percent.

>Year-to-date, moreover, the China merchandise trade surplus is up 5.28 percent.

>The widening of the China gap could largely explain the big (13.92 percent) sequential deterioration of the huge, chronic U.S. manufacturing trade deficit – from $70.31 billion in April to $80.10 billion in May. That May figure is the second worst on record, after last November’s $80.75 billion.

>Manufacturing exports advanced by 3.80 percent on month in May, from $89.26 billion to $92.65 billion.

>But the far larger amount of manufacturing imports soared by 8.26 percent, from $159.57 billion to $172.75 billion.

>These results pushed the January-May manufacturing trade deficit up 6.96 percent, to $356.226 billion.

>Year-to-date manufacturing exports have risen by 3.67 percent in 2017. But the much larger amount of imports is up 5.10 percent.

>The good May results notwithstanding, the total U.S. trade deficit for the first five months of 2017 ($233.07 billion) was the worst such figure since the $238 billion of 2012 – when economic growth was somewhat faster.

>America’s trade performance with Germany, which the president also has criticized, provided better news in May. The U.S. merchandise shortfall dropped by 8.90 percent on month, to $4.99 billion, as American goods exports advanced and imports fell. And year-to-date, the bilateral gap is down by 6.73 percent.

>Less encouraging were May’s high tech goods trade numbers – which tend to be volatile. The American global deficit in this category skyrocketed by 56.73 percent, to $9.47 billion.

>U.S. high tech goods exports were off only by 0.51 percent sequentially, to $28.48 billion. But imports rose by 9.46 percent, to $37.95 billion.

>Year-to-date, the high tech goods gap has ballooned by 37.13 percent – to $34.58 billion. As with the overall trade deficit, that’s the highest figure since the first five months of 2012 ($35.21 billion).

>The cumulative trade drag on the long but slow American economic recovery stood at 10.66 percent as of the first quarter of 2017. That means that the increase in the inflation-adjusted trade deficit since the expansion began in the second quarter of 2009 has cut real economic growth during this period by $229.3 billion.

>The trade drag of the Made in Washington trade deficit – which adjusts trade flows for inflation and omits service and energy trade flows that are only lightly affected by U.S. trade policy – has been nearly twice as great. As of the first quarter, it stood at 20.57 percent of cumulative growth, or a $441.51 billion hit.

>Between April and May, this real non-oil goods trade deficit grew shrank from $62.23 billion to a still lofty $60.38 billion. If June’s total is comparable, the Made in Washington trade drag on the recovery will rise yet higher, and will be calculable once the second quarter gross domestic product figures are released.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Record Manufacturing Shortfall Keys August U.S. Trade Deficit Rise

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(What's Left of) Our Economy. trade, Census Bureau, China, exports, high tech goods trade, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods trade deficit, oil, recovery, services, trade deficit

America’s goods and services trade deficit rebounded by just under 3 percent sequentially in August, from an upwardly adjusted $39.55 billion to $40.73 billion. Fueling this increase in part was a new record monthly total for the longstanding U.S. manufacturing trade deficit – to $80.43 billion. Another monthly record set in August came in services imports – where the $42.99 billion in purchases from abroad represented the sector’s second straight monthly high.

The massive, manufacturing-dominated U.S goods deficit with China increased by double digits on month in August, to the highest level ($33.85 billion) since last September. In a related development, the volatile American global high tech goods deficit surged by 51 percent sequentially to its highest level ($10.23 billion) since last November ($11.41 billion). The oil trade gap rose strongly as well, to its greatest total ($5.39 billion) since last December ($5.65 billion).  

Total goods and services exports and imports rose modestly on month in August, and hit their highest levels since July, 2015. But both are down from last year’s levels, as is the combined trade deficit. Yet the shortfall in trade heavily influenced by American agreements and related policy decisions remained a major (nearly $439 billion) drag on inflation-adjusted recovery-era growth.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (August) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>The U.S. goods and services trade deficit rose in August by 2.98 percent, from an upwardly adjusted $39.55 billion in July to $40.73 billion.

> One leading contributor to the higher total – a record monthly trade shortfall of $80.43 billion in manufacturing, which topped the previous (October, 2015) all-time high of $76.74 billion by 4.81 percent and the July level of $74.83 billion by 7.48 percent.

>The manufacturing deficit so far ($561.26 billion) is running 3.42 percent ahead of last year’s record pace ($542.7 billion from January through August).

>Manufacturing exports year-to-date are 7.08 percent lower than in 2015, while imports are off by just 2.67 percent.

>The August trade deficit was also boosted by the highest monthly services import total on record ($42.99 billion) – which helped cut the month’s services surplus to it lowest level ($19.56 billion) since December, 2013 ($19.33 billion).

>The August services import total topped the old record of $41.48 billion (set in July) by 3.64 percent.

>Also lying behind that record August manufacturing trade deficit: a whopping 51 percent monthly jump in the volatile high tech goods deficit – from $6.77 billion to $10.23 billion. That total represented the highest since last November ($11.41 billion).

>High tech goods exports dipped by 0.93 percent sequentially in August (from $28 billion to $27.74 billion), but imports rose by 9.19 percent (from $34.77 billion to $37.97 billion).

>Nor was the historically bad August manufacturing trade performance helped by a double-digit (11.61 percent) sequential increase in the manufacturing-dominated merchandise deficit with China. At $33.85 billion, the latest monthly total was the greatest since last September’s record $36.30 billion.

>Nonetheless, the China goods deficit is down 5.69 percent in 2016 on a year-to-date basis.

>August also saw America’s current-dollar oil trade deficit rise by near-double digits on month (8.38 percent), from $4.97 billion in July to $5.39 billion. That’s the highest monthly oil deficit since last December’s $5.65 billion – though on a year-to-date basis, the shortfall remains down nearly 50 percent.

>Combined goods and services exports rose by 0.79 percent sequentially in August, from an upwardly revised $186.38 billion to $187.85 billion. That’s the highest monthly total since July, 2015’s $190.11 billion.

>Total imports were up as well on month – by 1.17 percent, from an upwardly revised $225.93 billion to $228.58 billion. That August figure is also the highest since July, 2015 ($230.01 billion).

>But both total exports and imports are off 2015’s year-to-date levels – the former by 4.10 percent and the latter by 3.60 percent.

>As a result, the combined goods and services trade deficit is currently 1.30 percent lower ($330.74 billion) than in the first eight months of 2015 ($335.08 billion).

>Unfortunately, trade remains a major drag on the current, historically feeble U.S. economic recovery. Separate figures from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reveal that it has cut cumulative real growth since the current expansion began (in mid-2009) by 8.63 percent, or $192.2 billion.

>The trade toll taken by the Made in Washington portion of the trade deficit (the real non-oil goods total) is much higher – 19.70 percent, or just under $439 billion.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Ever Curious-er (and Bigger) Revisions of US Trade Figures

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exports, high tech goods trade, imports, manufacturing, non-oil goods deficit, oil trade, recovery, services trade, Trade, {What's Left of) Our Economy

As usual, whenever the monthly U.S. jobs reports and the monthly U.S. trade reports come out on the same day, the latter get overshadowed. Partly this is because the trade data is released with a two-month time lag, versus one month for employment. But it’s also partly because, despite all the paeans offered to globalization and its blessings by the political, business, and media establishments, the trade figures have become so depressing that they’re considered best neglected in hopes that Main Street won’t notice.

So chances are you haven’t yet read or heard that the overall January trade shortfall increased 2.19 percent on month, from $44.70 billion to $45.68 billion. Or that this January combined goods and services deficit was the highest since August’s $50.54 billion. These figures aren’t adjusted for inflation, so it’s tough to tell exactly how much of a drag on economic growth they’ll produce, but all the signs keep pointing to one that will keep getting bigger and bigger.

Also noteworthy: That portion of the trade deficit most heavily influenced by trade deals and related trade policies – the non-oil goods deficit – also hit its highest level in pre-inflation terms ($57.76 billion) since August ($59.29 billion). So did its inflation-adjusted counterpart.

Not that the January trade report was devoid of bright spots. The deficit in manufactures fell from December’s $69.19 billion to $65.44 billion, and the gap in high tech goods dove to its lowest level ($4.98 billion) since February ($3.13 billion). Further, the $4.64 billion oil deficit represented its second lowest level since April, 1999, as imports ($11.19 billion) were lower than in any month since November, 2003 ($10.78 billion).

But what really stood out in the numbers to data mavens were the revisions of December results – they were humongous by their usual standards, and created significant changes in the full-year 2015 results. Here are some of the main examples:

>The December goods and services trade deficit was revised up by a stunning 3.09 percent. And this upgrade followed an almost as unusually large 2.32 percent upward revision in the November shortfall.

>Largely as a result, the full-year 2015 total trade deficit came in at $539.76 billion – 1.55 percent higher than the originally reported $531.50 billion. This figure was 6.18 percent bigger than the 2014’s trade deficit, not 4.56 percent greater. And whereas the first 2015 data pegged that year’s combined trade deficit as the biggest since 2012, the revisions make it the biggest since 2011.

>The key to the December revisions was services trade – which has been in surplus annually, and therefore a winner for the U.S. economy, since 1971.

>The December services surplus was still big as a result of the revisions reported today – $17.90 billion. But the previously reported number was a good deal larger – $19.16 billion. That’s a difference of an immense 8.27 percent!

>December services exports were revised down 1.59 percent, from $60.34 billion to $59.38 billion. Imports for the month, meanwhile, were revised up 0.72 percent, from $41.19 billion to $41.48 billion.

>For the full year, services exports were revised down 0.87 percent, from $716.43 billion to $710.17 billion. As a result, rather than rise year-on-year by 0.83 percent, they fell. And though the decline was a tiny 0.06 percent, it represented the first annual drop since the recession year 2009.

>Full-year services imports were revised up 0.33 percent, from $489 billion to $490.61 billion. As a result, they rose year-on-year by 2.76 percent, not by 0.33 percent.

>The impact on the full-year, 2015 services surplus was profound. Initially reported at $227.43 billion, it was downgraded this morning to $219.55 billion. That’s 3.46 percent lower. And therefore, this 2015 total was not 2.45 percent less than 2014’s, but 5.83 percent. Given that this year-on-year drop was the first since 2003, the change becomes even more significant.

The much larger goods trade totals for December and full-year 2015 were revised, too – mainly negatively – but these changes were dwarfed by the services revisions. But the government’s revising exercise isn’t done yet. The latest changes don’t seem to have been incorporated yet into more detailed data series, like those that track trade by country and sector. I’ll be keeping an eye out for them, and report the results as soon as I can!

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: November U.S. Trade Deficit Dips but Longer-Term Trends Remain Worrisome

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Canada, China, exports, growth, high tech goods trade, imports, Jobs, Korea, KORUS, manufacturing, manufacturing trade deficit, Obama, petroleum, TPP, Trade, trade deficit, Trans-Pacific Partnership, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit fell by 4.95 percent in November to the second lowest monthly total of the year but the drop’s magnitude was boosted by a significant upward revision for October’s total – the second big monthly upgrade in a row.

Overall exports, goods exports, and goods imports sunk to their worst monthly levels in nearly four and five years, respectively, and the huge chronic shortfalls in manufacturing and China merchandise trade retreated sequentially. Yet both are still on track for new annual records, and monthly high tech goods trade registered its third highest deficit ever. Goods imports from Canada are now at five-plus-year bottom. And even though petroleum imports and the oil trade shortfall increased on month, both remained near lows set in 2003 and 1999, respectively.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (November) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>The combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased by 4.95 percent on month in November, to $42.37 billion – the second lowest total of the year after February’s weather- and ports-strike-affected $38.54 billion.

>But the improvement was magnified by a 1.57 percent upward revision in the October overall deficit – from $43.89 billion to $44.58 billion. This revision represented the second significant monthly upgrade in a row.

>U.S. combined exports and imports declined sequentially. The former fell from a downwardly revised $183.78 billion to $182.21 billion, and the latter from an upwardly revised $228.36 billion to $224.59 billion.

>In historic perspective, however, the export fall-off was more significant. Combined goods and services exports in November hit their lowest level since January, 2012, and goods exports have not been this weak since February, 2011.

>November’s overall import total was the lowest since that winter- and labor-affected February’s $224.43 billion. The merchandise import level of $183.48 billion, however, was the weakest since February, 2011’s $176.72 billion.

>America’s huge and longstanding shortfalls in manufacturing and China trade both were down sequentially in November, but both also still seem certain to hit new annual records.

>The manufacturing trade deficit fell to $71.13 billion from October’s all-time high $76.74 billion. Yet despite this 7.31 percent decrease, this trade gap is running 13.89 percent ahead of last year’s record pace.

>From October to November, manufactures exports sank by 7.43 percent, to $88.02 billion, while the much larger amount of imports dropped by 7.38 percent, to $159.15 billion.

>Through November, U.S. manufactures exports are down 6.39 percent year-on-year, while imports are up 1.30 percent.

>The manufacturing-dominated goods trade deficit with China declined 5.19 percent on month in November, from $32.97 billion to $31.26 billion. U.S. merchandise exports to the still strongly growing PRC economy were down 6.18 percent, from $11.38 billion to $10.68 billion. America’s merchandise imports from China on month were off 5.45 percent, from $44.36 billion to $41.94 billion.

>Nonetheless, the bilateral trade imbalance through November is running 7.23 percent ahead of last year’s all-time high. And America’s merchandise exports to China this year could fall on an annual basis for the first time since 2009.

>In another noteworthy development, the high tech goods trade deficit in November rebounded to 2015 high of $11.44 billion – up 9.79 percent from October’s $10.42 billion figure. This total also represented the third worst monthly high tech goods deficit ever, and could propel this imbalance to its second highest annual level on record.

>High tech goods exports decreased by 9.40 percent on month, to $28.10 billion, while imports fell by only 4.57 percent, to $39.53 billion.

>Another multi-year low revealed in the November trade figures came in U.S. goods imports from Canada. The $22.73 billion figure hasn’t been this weak since July, 2010.

>The new report also cast further doubt on President Obama’s trade strategy, as the goods deficit with Korea worsened by 4.84 percent. Washington and Seoul signed a free trade agreement in 2012, and this KORUS deal was the model for the much larger Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) completed last year.  But the trade gap with Korea this year is currently 14.50 percent greater than year’s January-November total and looks certain to set its third annual record since the bilateral pact was concluded.

>On a monthly basis, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with Korea has more than quadrupled since the agreement went into effect in March, 2012.

>The improvement in the overall November U.S. trade balance contrasted with a 19.58 percent sequential increase in the petroleum trade gap – from $4.48 billion to $5.36 billion. Nonetheless, that figure still represents the second lowest monthly total since June, 1999.

>Similarly, although petroleum imports increased by 5.12 percent sequentially, to $12.62 billion, that total was the second lowest since December, 2003.

>Also, despite the monthly shrinkage, the U.S. combined goods and services trade deficit is 5.45 percent higher on a January-November basis than the 2014 figure.