(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A “C” for Obama on Manufacturing – Thanks to Automotive

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automotive, Federal Reserve, Great Recession, high tech goods, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, Obama, recovery, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Thanks to last week’s Federal Reserve industrial production data for December, we now have more full-year 2016 statistics on the economy. Even better, we can construct a detailed report card for the Obama years on another crucial front – domestic manufacturing output. These numbers will be revised several times more in the next few months, but so far, it’s hard to give the previous administration more than a “C.”

The latest monthly and annual changes for the factory sector as a whole and for the durable goods and non-durable goods super-sectors can be found in my same day report on the latest Fed release. But the figures for specific industries are vital, too, and they’re sending two important messages.

The first is that even though the entire manufacturing sector just barely crawled out of recession toward the end of last year, many specific segments remain mired in a two-year downturn – including some highly unlikely suspects. The second is a confirmation that without an extraordinary boom in the automotive sector, American industry would still be slumping. Indeed, vehicles and parts outperformed even the high tech goods sector during the Obama years. Maybe that’s why President Trump seems so obsessed with preventing more of their offshoring to Mexico?

The government divides manufacturing into 20 major components – eleven durable good industries and nine in the somewhat smaller non-durables category. Of these 20 sectors, only nine increased production in real terms between 2015 and 2016: wood products; primary metals products; non-electrical machinery; computer and electronics products; automotive; miscellaneous manufactures; food, beverages and tobacco; paper; and petroleum and coal products.

The leader was automotive (which grew after inflation by 6.58 percent), but the computer and electronics products industry was the only other sector registering annual constant-dollar growth by more than two percent (with 2.96).

The 2016 manufacturing output losers were led by the small “other manufacturing” sector, where price-adjusted output tumbled by 6.46 percent. But four other industries saw constant-dollar annual production declines of more than two percent: electrical equipment, apparel and leather, printing, and – this is sure unexpected – aerospace and miscellaneous transportation (which of course includes all those Boeing airliners).

And here’s a sign that at least some of the relatively strong 2016 performers were largely recovering from lousy 2015s. Three of the nine that grew at all are still in two-year-long recessions (primary metals, non-electrical machinery, and paper).

If you look in even more detail at U.S. manufacturing, the list of industries that has been stuck in two-year recessions gets really disturbing. For it includes many high-value sectors that generate an outsized share of the economy’s productivity growth and innovation – along with high wage jobs. But the after-inflation output of the following sectors is down on net since at least December, 2014: pharmaceuticals; iron and steel products; ball and roller bearings; construction equipment; machine tools; power generation equipment and turbines; and aircraft and parts.

The new Fed data reveal that, during the Obama years overall (starting in January, 2009), domestic manufacturing output expanded in real terms by 15.88 percent. And since the beginning of the economic recovery (June of that year), it’s up by 20.89 percent. That’s a good performance, but as RealityChek regulars know, they came after the worst manufacturing downturn since the Great Depression, and still leave domestic industry more than four percent smaller than at the start of that latest recession.

That’s why, incidentally, it’s difficult to compare manufacturing under the former president with manufacturing under George W. Bush or any of their recent predecessors. Bush’s presidency, for example, started as the dotcom-driven (and unsustainable) manufacturing expansion of the Clinton years was ending. A significant, but far from catastrophic, industrial downturn followed. But that Great Recession struck at the end of the Bush years, and badly distorts the output numbers if you’re measuring “by president.”

Automotive was the pace-setter in the Obama manufacturing expansion by a long shot. Since Mr. Obama’s first inauguration, its inflation-adjusted production jumped by just over 167 percent, and since the recovery official began six months later, it expanded by just under 168 percent. The lion’s share of output during both periods was in vehicles, where constant-dollar production more than tripled – though parts output increased by more than 130 percent during the Obama years as well.

American industry’s worst performer was that small other manufacturing sector, which has shrunk by more than 30 percent. Output in real terms fell in the apparel and leather, and printing industries under Mr. Obama – which shouldn’t surprise anyone. But it also dropped in the enormous chemicals industry (by a little less than one percent) – which should.

Information technology hardware – semiconductors, computers, and communications equipment – grew robustly, too, in constant dollars during the Obama years (by more than 102 percent) and during the recovery (by a bit more). But these producers clearly were left in the dust by automotive. (And it’s important to remember that high tech industries’ real growth is probably overstated, for reasons explained here.)

And here are the real stunners: If you remove the automotive sector from the real manufacturing output totals, industry’s output improved by only 12.34 percent during the current recovery (not 20.89 percent) and a mere 7.37 percent since the first Obama inauguration (not 15.88 percent). Over a seven-year period, that’s a pittance. Strip out high tech hardware, and manufacturing’s real growth is less, too – but it would still have risen by 15.71 percent during this recovery and 10.25 percent during the previous administration.

These industrial production figures depict President Trump’s focus on reshoring automotive production and keeping it stateside as a no-brainer. By the same token, they indicate that domestic manufacturing’s fortunes could depend heavily on whether or not he succeeds.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Record Gaps in Manufacturing, Hi-Tech Goods Help Drive November Trade Deficit Bounce

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(What's Left of) Our Economy. trade, Eurozone, exports, high tech goods, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods trade deficit, oil, recovery, South Korea, trade deficit

America’s goods and services trade deficit grew sequentially for the third straight month in November. The 6.80 percent monthly rise pushed the shortfall to $45.24 billion – its highest total since February’s $45.26 billion. Leading the increase were record monthly deficits in manufacturing ($80.75 billion), high tech goods ($13.53 billion), plus the great shortfall in oil in current dollars ($6.02 billion) since August, 2015 ($7.07 billion). Largely as a result, the merchandise deficit of $66.63 billion was the largest since March, 2015 ($70.40 billion). More encouragingly, the services trade surplus ($21.39 billion) was its largest since December ($21.57 billion).

Overall goods and services exports fell sequentially (by 0.24 percent) while their imports rose (by 1.06 percent) and hit another post-August, 205 high. Big monthly merchandise deficit increases were registered with the Eurozone (up 18.56 percent), and Korea (88.22 percent). And the November increase in the real non-oil goods (Made in Washington) portion of the trade deficit to a five-month high of $59.30 billion indicates that the trade drag on feeble recovery-era growth is set to increase.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (November) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>The U.S. goods and services trade deficit rose in November by 6.80 percent, from a downwardly adjusted $42.36 billion to $45.24 billion – the highest such total since February ($45.26 billion).

>The increase was spearheaded by new record deficits in manufacturing ($80.75 billion) and high tech goods ($13.53 billion), and the biggest oil trade gap in current dollars ($6.02 billion) since August, 2015 ($7.07 billion).

>In addition, the overall merchandise deficit of $66.63 billion was the greatest such total since March, 2015 ($70.40 billion).

>Also contributing to the overall rise in the November trade deficit – an 18.56 percent sequential move up in the merchandise trade gap with the Eurozone (to $12.64 billion), fueled no doubt by a weakening currency; and a stunning 88.22 percent jump in the goods deficit with South Korea (to $2.40 billion).

>The November manufacturing trade deficit was 4.90 percent higher than October’s $76.98 billion level, and slightly higher than the previous all-time high of $80.43 billion set in August.

>November manufacturing exports dropped by 5.41 percent sequentially, from $90.91 billion to $85.99 billion, but imports dipped by only 0.68 percent, from $167.89 billion to $166.74 billion.

>On a year-to-date basis, the manufacturing trade deficit stands at $792.30 billion, and is running 3.51 percent ahead of last year’s record pace.

>January-November manufacturing exports are down 6.31 percent year-on-year, while imports are off only 2.01 percent.

> The record high tech goods trade deficit of $13.53 billion hit in November obliterated the old record of $11.72 billion, set in November, 2012, by 15.44 percent.

>High tech goods exports sank by 8.93 percent on month, to $27.79 billion, while imports rose by 5.37 percent. Their $41.32 billion level was the highest since October, 2015 ($41.38 billion).

>Year-to-date, however, the high tech goods deficit is still down 5.80 percent from last year’s levels.

>November’s $6.02 billion current-dollar oil trade deficit was the highest such total since August, 2015’s $7.07 billion total. This figure was also 5.60 percent higher than the October level.

>Yet the oil trade deficit year-to-date ($50.45 billion) is still fully 36.06 percent lower than last year’s January-November figure.

>The higher November merchandise deficit with the Eurozone stemmed from a 10.39 percent in U.S. goods exports to the troubled region, whose currency keeps weakening versus the U.S. dollar, and a 0.72 percent bump up in American goods imports.

>Year-to-date, the Eurozone deficit is still down 3.47 percent from last year’s levels.

>The near-doubling of the U.S. goods deficit with South Korea, a free trade agreement partner of merica’s since 2012, reflected a 10.93 percent decrease in U.S. merchandise exports and a 13.80 percent increase in American imports.

>Year-to-date, the merchandise deficit with South Korea is running 0.56 percent higher than last year’s total.

>One of the few bright November-specific bright spots in the trade report was came in services. Its long-running surplus increased 2.54 percent on month, from $20.86 billion to $21.39 billion. That total was the sector’s best since last December ($21.57 billion).

>Yet a cause for concern is the year-to-date services surplus. At $226.58 billion, it’s currently 5.84 percent lower than last year’s January-November figure ($240.63 billion).

>The combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit for 2016 stood at $453.99 billion – 1.06 percent lower than at this point last year.

>Overall U.S. exports fell 0.24 percent sequentially in November from a downwardly revised $186.28 billion to $185.83 billion. Overall imports increased nearly five times faster – from a downwardly revised $228.64 billion to $231.07 billion. That level was their highest since August, 2015 ($231.26 billion).

>Year-to-date, overall exports are off 2.72 percent while imports are down by 2.42 percent.

>A 5.69 percent monthly rise in the November real non-oil goods trade deficit indicates that these trade flows remain a major drag on the current, historically feeble American economic recovery.

>This Made in Washington deficit – which is heavily influenced by U.S. trade agreements and related policy decisions – had been narrowing lately, with its growth-subtracting on the recovery down to 16.05 percent of the cumulative improvement in real gross domestic product as of the third quarter.

>But in November, it hit its highest level ($59.30 billion) since June ($60.76 billion).

>The publication of next month’s first full-year 2016 trade data will permit a preliminary fourth quarter calculation to be made.

>The American merchandise trade deficit with China declined in November by 1.96 percent, from $31.11 billion to $30.50 billion.

>U.S. goods exports to China’s still healthily growing economy fell by 4.56 percent on month in November, while goods imports were down 2.71 percent.

>Year-to-date, this China shortfall is running 5.90 percent behind last year’s record pace.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks, but Remains Stubbornly High – and a Growth Killer

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Census Bureau, China, exports, high tech goods, imports, Korea, manufacturing, Mexico, non-oil goods deficit, oil, recovery, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The goods and services U.S. trade deficit fell by 11.60 percent on month in July, largely due to a fall in the non-oil goods gap (by 8.65 percent) that was even greater than the decline in the oil shortfall (6.39 percent). In June, a big overall trade deficit increase resulted mainly from the first widening of the oil trade gap since December.

America’s chronic manufacturing trade deficit in July ($74.83 billion) was its second largest of all time. Overall U.S. exports rose to their highest level ($186.33 billion) since September, while combined goods and services imports dropped for the first time since March. The huge U.S. goods deficit with China increased to its highest level ($30.33 billion) since November. The drag on U.S. growth from the cumulative increase of the trade deficit during the current economic recovery remained at nearly 20 percent, or more than $437 billion in constant dollars.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (July) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>The U.S. goods and services trade deficit dropped by 11.60 percent in July, from an upwardly revised $44.60 billion to $39.74 billion, mainly because the non-oil trade deficit improved much more than the oil trade deficit.

> America’s non-oil trade deficit shrank sequentially by 8.65 percent in July, from $58.90 billion to $53.79 billion. The oil trade gap narrowed, too, but only by 6.39 percent – from $5.32 billion to $4.98 billion.

>The July trade deficit pattern contrasted sharply with that of June, when an 84.19 percent surge in the oil deficit keyed an 8.68 percent monthly worsening of the total trade deficit, while the non-oil goods deficit rose by only 1.46 percent. The June numbers, in turn, broke sharply with the recent U.S. Pattern of the combined goods and services deficit and the non-oil goods deficit rising strongly while the oil shortfall plummeted.

>The total goods deficit shrank in July from a downwardly revised $65.63 billion to $60.34 billion, an 8.06 percent decrease that was the greatest since March’s 12.02 percent.

>Despite the improved non-oil goods performance, however, the longstanding and enormous U.S. manufacturing trade deficit hit its second highest total ever in July – $74.83 billion. Only last October’s $76.74 billion was higher. The June manufacturing deficit was 1.05 percent lower, at $74.05 billion.

>Partly as a result, the manufacturing-dominated U.S. goods trade deficit with China rose by 1.90 percent on month in July to reach $30.33 billion – its highest level since November ($31.29 billion). The June China merchandise deficit, $29.76 billion, was 1.93 percent lower.

>Total U.S. goods and services exports rose 1.86 percent sequentially in July, from a downwardly revised $182.92 billion to $186.33 billion – their highest total since September ($187.55 billion). The increase was the biggest since March, 2014 (2.15 percent).

>Most of this improvement took place in goods trade, where exports in July also increased to a post-September high ($124.05 billion) from June’s upwardly revised $120.61 billion. In addition, the 2.85 percent monthly improvement was the biggest for goods since March, 2014 as well (2.88 percent).

>July’s combined goods and services imports declined by 0.78 percent, to $225.80 billion from June’s downwardly revised $227.58 billion.

>Again, most of the improvement came on the goods side, where imports fell by 0.99 percent, from a downwardly revised $186.24 billion to $184.39 billion.

>The services surplus fell, however, in July, from $20.98 billion to $20.87 billion. Services exports fell and services imports rose.

>The July manufacturing trade deficit increased because exports fell faster on month (by 7.32 percent) than the much larger amount of imports (3.57 percent).

>So far this year, the manufacturing trade deficit is running 2.34 percent ahead of last year’s record $831 billion total. Exports are down 7.52 percent, and the much larger amount of imports is off last year’s January-July total by only 3.40 percent.

>U.S. merchandise exports to China increased by 3.79 percent sequentially in July, while the much greater amount of imports rose by 2.36 percent.

>The U.S. goods deficit with China is running 6.12 percent behind last year’s record total of $367.17 billion.

>In trade with other countries that have made recent headlines, the U.S. merchandise deficit with Korea, whose 2012 trade agreement with the United States is the model for President Obama’s politically unpopular Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal, fell by 5.29 percent on month in July. Both U.S. merchandise exports and imports declined.

>But the Korea deficit is running 9.30 percent ahead of last year’s January-July total, and on a monthly basis has quadrupled since the bilateral agreement went into effect with the United States in March, 2012.

>U.S.-Mexico trade tells a similar story. The U.S. merchandise deficit fell by 11.74 percent on month in July, on falling U.S. exports and imports. But this deficit, too, is running ahead of last year’s levels – by 8.88 percent.

>Volatile American trade in high tech goods saw its longstanding shortfall decrease by 8.28 percent sequentially in July, from a June level of $7.38 billion that was the year’s highest to $6.77 billion. Exports and imports were down on this front, too.

>Year-to-date, however, this shortfall is down 11.74 percent.

>The combined U.S. goods and services deficit is running behind 2015 levels, too – but by only 0.17 percent. Given that American economic growth is running at about one percent annualized in inflation-adjusted terms – less than half last year’s rate – the trade deficit’s persistence is one sign that it keeps dragging on the current recovery.

>Indeed, as of the second quarter of this year, which ended in June, the increase in the real non-oil goods deficit had sliced cumulative growth during this sluggish expansion by 19.70 percent – or $437.19 billion in constant dollars.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: June Trade Deficit Hits 10-Month High, Largely on Record Jump in Oil Gap

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China, high tech goods, Japan, manufacturing, non-oil goods deficit, oil, recovery, TPP, Trade, trade deficit, Trans-Pacific Partnership, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The goods and services U.S. trade deficit rose 8.68 percent in June, driven by an unprecedented 84.19 percent jump in the oil trade gap that broke a long pattern of dramatic energy trade improvement. The $44.51 billion combined goods and services shortfall was the largest monthly total since last August. The large, longstanding manufacturing trade deficit rose to $74.05 billion, just short of the record $74.69 billion hit last September. And thanks partly to its second biggest monthly total ever, the recovery-era growth-killing effects of the real Made in Washington deficit (in non-oil goods trade) stood at 19.70 percent as of the second quarter, or more than $437 billion.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (June) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>The U.S. goods and services trade deficit rose by 8.68 percent in June, from a downwardly adjusted May total of $40.96 billion to $44.51 billion. This monthly level was the highest since last August’s $44.64 billion.

>Contrasting with the trade flow story in recent years, the increase stemmed largely from a stunning 84.19 percent surge in the current dollar oil trade deficit, from $2.89 billion to $5.32 billion. This increase was the greatest in percentage terms since these data began being tracked in 1992, though in absolute terms, the oil deficit remained at levels last seen in the mid-1990s.

>The inflation-adjusted oil deficit rose impressively in June, too – by 34.65 percent. The $9.66 billion total was the biggest since March, 2015 ($10.28 billion).

>Manufacturing’s chronic and huge trade gap rose by only 1.44 percent on month in June, but at $74.05 billion, it represented the second largest total on record (after last September, 2015’s $74.69 billion.

>June manufacturing exports increased by 2.74 percent sequentially, from $88.74 billion to $91.17 billion. Manufacturing imports were up a slower 2.15 percent, but the volumes were much greater – as they increased from $161.74 billion to $165.22 billion.

>So far this year, the manufacturing trade deficit is running 2.65 percent ahead of last year’s record $830 billion total.

>Year-on-year, manufacturing exports are down 7.35 percent, but imports are only 3.22 percent lower.

>The June trade figures also revealed that the growth of the Made in Washington portion of the trade deficit – the non-oil goods gap adjusted for inflation – remained a major growth drag during the current historically feeble economic recovery. Since the expansion began, in the second quarter of 2009, the increase in this trade deficit has cut inflation-adjusted growth by a cumulative 19.70 percent, or $437.19 billion — largely because of a June deficit that, at $60.93 billion was the second biggest after inflation figure since these records began to be kept in 1994.   .

>Combined U.S. exports inched up 0.33 percent sequentially in June, from an upwardly adjusted $182.54 billion to $183.15 billion – their highest level since last November’s $183.58 billion.

>Total goods and service imports rose nearly five times faster – by 1.86 percent, from $223.50 billion in May to $227.66 billion. That’s the highest level since September.

>The combined January-June, 2016 trade deficit of $244.72 billion is 2.32 percent smaller last year’s $250.54 billion.

>Overall exports are off by 4.73 percent year-to-date, and imports are 4.30 percent lower.

>America’s big, longstanding merchandise trade deficit with China rose 2.55 percent on month in June, as exports and imports both increased. So far this year, the China merchandise deficit is running 6.45 percent below last year’s record total.

>The goods deficit with new free trade partner South Korea remained virtually unchanged, but at a monthly level some five times greater than when that agreement went into effect in March, 2012.

>The goods deficit with Japan, another difficult trade partner and signatory to President Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership, soared by nearly 26 percent in June, mainly on an 11.70 percent rise in imports. This bilateral deficit is down 3.73 percent year-to-date.

>America’s volatile trade deficit in high tech goods increased 9.65 percent on month in June, from $6.73 billion to $7.38 billion – its highest level since December. Both exports and imports were up.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: May Trade Figures Make Clear U.S. Should Thank Goodness for Oil

Tags

Census Bureau. trade deficit, China, exports, GDP, gross domestic product, high tech goods, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods trade deficit, oil, oil trade deficit, real GDP, recovery, services trade, South Korea, Trade, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The goods and services U.S. trade deficit rose 10.06 percent in May even though the current dollar oil shortfall remained at a post-March, 1999 bottom, the real oil deficit hit its third straight record monthly low, and inflation-adjusted oil exports hit their fifth straight all-time high. Leading the trade gap back up were wider deficits for China and high tech goods, and manufactures, as well as the second straight record monthly import total for services. Moreover, the non-oil goods Made in Washington trade deficit kept increasing, and through the first quarter has chopped a cumulative $430 billion (some 20 percent) off American real growth during the current subpar recovery.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (May) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>The U.S. goods and services trade deficit rose by 10.06 percent on month in May to hit its highest level since February. The increase from a downwardly adjusted $37.38 billion to $41.14 billion occurred despite favorable new records in America’s dramatically improving oil trade performance.

>The inflation-adjusted U.S. oil trade deficit hit its third straight monthly low in May, dropping 4.89 percent sequentially, from $7.52 billion to $7.15 billion.

>Real U.S. oil exports, meanwhile, climbed by 2.40 percent, from April’s $9.94 billion to $10.18 billion – their fifth straight monthly all-time high.

>Current dollar U.S. oil trade numbers were better in May, too. Before adjusting for prices, the oil trade deficit fell by 5.78 percent from April’s levels, which represented a 15-month low.

>By contrast, both the inflation-adjusted and pre-inflation Made in Washington trade deficits – the non-oil goods flows that are heavily affected by American trade policies – rose to their highest levels since February.

>The real non-oil goods deficit, which is part of the most closely watched real (gross domestic product) GDP calculation, hit $59.26 billion, 6.88 percent higher than April’s level. The pre-inflation non-oil goods deficit, which is used to calculate the monthly headline trade number, was $58.20 billion, up 7.06 percent on month.

>Year-to-date, the non-oil goods deficit is up 4.27 percent on a pre-inflation basis and by 4.35 percent after adjusting for price changes.

>Through the first quarter of this year, the growth of the real non-oil goods deficit has slowed U.S. economic growth during this anemic recovery by more than twenty percent – some $430 billion.

>The May trade figures also showed that U.S. services imports hit their second straight all-time monthly record. At $41.44 billion, they were fractionally higher than the upwardly revised April figure.

>Services exports declined by 0.15 percent on month in May, but combined with the import increase, produced a 0.48 percent sequential fall in the services surplus to $21.20 billion – the second straight post-December, 2013 low for this figure.

>Helping fuel the worsening of in the Made in Washington trade deficit was major deterioration in U.S. goods trade with China, in manufactures, and in high tech goods.

>The May merchandise trade deficit with China reached $29.02 billion – 19.38 percent higher than April’s figure and the worst such data since last November’s $31.29 billion.

>U.S. goods exports to China rose fell month in May by 1.72 percent, from $8.67 billion to $8.52 billion.

>By contrast, U.S. goods imports from China jumped sequentially by 12.01 percent, from $32.97 billion to $37.54 billion. That figure represented the highest total since last December.

>At the same time, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China is down 6.44 percent on a year-to-date basis.

>The large, chronic U.S. trade deficit in manufacturing swelled by 12.92 percent sequentially in May, from 64.65 to $73.00 billion.

>U.S. manufacturing exports edged up on month in May by 0.58 percent – from $88.23 billion to $88.74 billion.

>But the far greater amount of U.S. manufacturing imports rose ten times faster – by 5.80 percent – from $152.88 billion to $161.74 billion.

>Year-to-date, the manufacturing trade deficit is running 2.96 percent ahead of last year’s record $830 billion total. Manufactures exports are down 7.51 percent during this period, but manufactures imports are off only 3.23 percent.

>America’s longstanding but volatile trade deficit in advanced technology products hit a post-December high of $6.73 billion in May – soaring 40.18 percent over April’s $4.80 billion.

>High tech goods exports dipped on month by 2.01 percent, to $27.95 billion, while imports increased by 4.07 percent, to $34.68 billion.

>Year-to-date, the high tech goods deficit is still down 11.52 percent, on slightly higher exports and somewhat lower imports.

>In another noteworthy bilateral development, the May U.S. goods trade shortfall with relatively recent free trade agreement partner South Korea plunged by nearly 23 percent on month, mainly because American merchandise exports improved by just under 24 percent, to $3.67 billion – their best performance since last August.

>Year-to-date, however, the U.S goods deficit with Korea has grown by 15.19 percent, and on a monthly basis, it’s four-and-a-half times greater than when the bilateral trade deal went into effect in March, 2012.

>According to the May trade figures, combined good and services exports were down 0.17 percent sequentially, from a downwardly revised $182.67 billion to $182.35 billion.

>Overall exports, however, rose nearly ten times faster – by 1.57 percent – to $223.50 billion from a downwardly revised $220.05 billion.

>Year-to-date, the goods and services trade deficit is running 3.58 percent below last year’s pace. Overall exports are down 4.94 percent compared with the first five months of 2015, while overall imports are 4.68 percent lower.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Big Revisions Blur Latest Monthly U.S. Trade Picture

Tags

China, exports, GDP, gross domestic product, high tech goods, imports, Jobs, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods deficit, recovery, services trade, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Though they were overshadowed (as usual) on Friday by the simultaneous release of the monthly jobs report – which was unexpectedly lousy – the new trade statistics issued that morning revealed some important developments as well.

They showed that the goods and services U.S. trade deficit rose 5.35 percent on month in April, as the current dollar oil shortfall reached a post-March, 1999 bottom, the real oil deficit hit its second straight record monthly low, and inflation-adjusted oil exports hit their fourth straight all-time high. But the total trade deficit numbers and rates of change were distorted by an enormous (12.13 percent) downward revision in the March figure – which is now at a more than two-year low.

The biggest changes resulted from a 5.35 percent upward revision in services exports. Trade shortfalls with China, and in manufacturing and high tech goods all rose, and the gap with Korea – whose trade deal with the United States is the TPP model – reached a new record high. And in April, the Made in Washington portion of the trade deficit – those trade flows heavily affected by U.S. trade policies rose again, too, and continued slowing already feeble recovery-era growth.

Here are selected highlights:

>The U.S. goods and services trade deficit rose by 5.35 percent on month in April, to $37.44 billion. But the results and especially the increase – stemming largely from record improvements in oil trade flows – were distorted by a huge 12.13 percent downward revision in that March total, which brought it to its lowest monthly level since December, 2013.

>Whereas Census’ previous report pegged the March overall trade deficit at $40.44 billion, the new figures lowered that number to $35.54 billion – the smallest since December, 2013’s $34.81 billion.

>Combined goods and services exports in March were revised up by 2.01 percent, and total imports were judged to be 0.91 percent lower.

>The biggest proportionate revisions by far came in services trade. The March surplus in this sector was upgraded by 21.22 percent – from $18.07 billion to $21.91 billion. That previous figure would have been the lowest since November, 2012.

>The bulk of these revisions came on the services export side. These foreign sales were revised up by 5.35 percent – from $59.80 billion to $63.00 billion.

>The April overall trade shortfall – still the fourth lowest since October, 2013 – was held down largely by historic energy results.

>The current dollar oil trade deficit fell sequentially by 3.36 percent to $3.13 billion – the lowest such total since March, 1999.

>Oil exports rose by 10.13 percent, from $6.53 billion to $7.19 billion, while imports rose only about half as fast – by 5.65 percent, from $9.77 billion to $10.32 billion.

>In inflation-adjusted terms, the April results were even more dramatic.

>The real oil trade deficit fell by 4.83 percent in April, from $8.05 billion to $7.66 billion – its second straight all-time low.

>Real oil exports increased by 6.67 percent, from $9.29 billion to $9.91 billion – their fourth straight all-time high.

>Price-adjusted oil imports rose as well, but only by 1.33 percent – from $17.34 billion to $17.57 billion.

>April’s services trade figures backslid a bit from March’s totals. The surplus dipped by 2.42 percent, from $21.91 billion to $21.37 billion.

>Exports fell by 0.41 percent, from $63.00 billion to $62.74 billion, and imports inched up by 0.65 percent, from $41.09 billion to $41.36 billion.

>Outside the energy and services sector, American trade’s performance was less impressive. In particular, the Made in Washington portion of the trade deficit – in non-oil goods, which are heavily affected by U.S. trade policy – rose by 3.19 percent, from $52.73 billion to $54.42 billion.

>In constant-dollar terms – those used to calculate the most widely followed economic growth figure – the Made in Washington trade deficit rose by 3.39 percent, from $53.67 billion to $55.50 billion.

>In fact, the latest growth figures – for first quarter gross domestic product – show that the growth of the Made in Washington deficit has slowed the current feeble U.S. economic recovery by more than 20 percent in real terms.

>Current-dollar results outside the energy and services sectors were little better. The large, longstanding merchandise trade deficit with China rebounded by 16.30 percent, from a roughly two-year low of $20.90 billion to $24.31 billion.

>U.S. goods exports to China fell on month by 3.18 percent, while imports rose by 10.45 percent.

>Even worse was American merchandise trade with Korea, whose 2012 trade deal with the United States has been touted by the Obama administration as the model for its Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement.

>The goods deficit with Korea jumped by 11.10 percent sequentially in April, from $2.96 billion to a record $3.28 billion.

>U.S. merchandise exports to Korea sank by 14.98 percent, from $3.48 billion to $2.96 billion – their lowest level since February, 2010. U.S. goods imports from Korea fell as well, but only by 3.01 percent, from $6.44 billion to $6.25 billion.

>Since the trade deal with Korea went into effect, in March, 2012, the U.S. merchandise deficit is up by 4.85 percent.

>The also large and chronic U.S. manufacturing trade deficit increased in April – by 2.67 percent over March’s $62.97 billion level, to $64.65 billion.

>Manufacturing exports fell month on month by 4.87 percent, and the much greater amount of imports dropped by 1.82 percent.

>Through April, the manufacturing trade deficit is running 1.15 percent ahead of last year’s record pace, as exports have decreased by 7.49 percent and exports are down by 3.96 percent.

>The volatile high tech goods trade deficit surged in April by 43.93 percent – from $3.34 billion to $4.80 billion – after dropping by 35.07 percent the month before.

>High tech exports fell by 9.51 percent, from $31.52 billion to $28.52 billion, while imports decreased by 4.39 percent, from $34.86 billion to $33.33 billion.

>Combined goods and services exports rose by 1.46 percent on month in April, from $180.17 billion to $182.80 billion. The March exports figure was revised up by 2.01 percent,

>Combined goods and services imports 2.10 percent, from $215.71 billion to $220.23 billion. The March imports figure was revised down by 0.61 percent.

>The combined trade deficit is running 4.83 percent below last year’s January-through-April total.

>Total goods and services exports are down 5.11 percent year to date, while imports are 5.06 percent lower.

>The current-dollar non-oil goods deficit is running 3.78 percent higher than last year’s January-through-April total.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Oil and High Tech Records Help Narrow the March U.S. Trade Deficit

Tags

China, exports, high tech goods, imports, manufacturing, non-oil goods deficit, oil, petroleum, recovery, Trade, Trade Deficits, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The March U.S. total trade deficit of $40.44 billion was the lowest in more than a year, and reflected record low petroleum shortfalls in both current and constant dollar terms, and the best month in history for high tech goods exports. Real petroleum exports rose to historic levels as well. The huge American merchandise trade deficit with China fell by the greatest amount since February, 2012 and a 4.43 percent narrowing of the manufacturing deficit was led by a double-digits percent monthly rise in exports.

All the same, the growth of that slice of the trade deficit most strongly affected by trade policy resulted in a 20-plus percent subtraction from the current weak U.S. economic expansion – which translates into $430 billion of lost growth.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (March) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>A slowing U.S. economy, along with more new records in oil trade and high tech goods trade, finally significantly narrowed America’s trade deficit in March.

>The combined goods and services shortfall of $40.44 billion was the lowest monthly total since February, 2015, and represented a 13.88 percent plunge from last month’s downwardly revised $46.96 billion.

>March’s trade deficit improvement was led by a 3.58 percent monthly drop in overall imports, from a downwardly revised $225.13 billion to $217.061 billion. This 3.58 percent decrease – the biggest such decline since recessionary February 2009’s 4.92 percent – brought America’s overall foreign purchases to their lowest monthly level since February, 2011.

>In turn, these subdued import totals were keyed by new record improvements in U.S. oil trade. The chronic U.S. oil trade deficit sank by 16.04 percent from February’s $3.53 billion to $2.97 billion – an all-time low (based on Census data that go back to 1992).

>U.S. oil imports of $9.44 billion in March were down by 4.52 percent from February’s $9.86 billion, and reached their lowest level since September, 2002 ($9.02 billion).

>March also saw a monthly rise in U.S. oil exports – of 2.36 percent, from $6.32 billion to $6.47 billion. But these levels are well off records.

>America’s oil trade also dramatically improved in inflation-adjusted terms in March. The real oil trade deficit shrank by 8.78 percent on month from $8.83 billion to $8.05 billion – a new all-time low (also based on Census figures dating to 1992). The previous record low was $8.14 billion, set in August, 2014.

>Yet many of these gains stemmed from the second straight month of record constant-dollar oil exports. These shipments hit $9.19 billion in March – 1.77 percent higher than February’s total of $9.03 billion.

>The above developments pushed the year-on-year combined U.S. trade deficit 0.78 percent lower (to $133.29 billion) than 2015’s comparable total ($134.33 billion).

>Goods and services exports fell 0.88 percent in March, from an upwardly revised $178.16 billion to $176.62 billion. This total represents the second worst since June, 2011 ($175.61 billion). Only January’s $176.92 billion was lower.

>Combined exports are now down 5.44 percent year-on-year.

>Combined imports are now down 4.54 percent year-on-year.

>Oil trade trends also significantly influenced America’s merchandise trade. The March goods trade deficit of $58.51 billion was 9.33 percent lower than February’s downwardly revised $64.53 billion. It also represented the smallest goods trade gap since the previous February.

>Goods exports dropped by 1.56 percent in March, from February’s upwardly adjusted $118.67 billion to $116.82 billion.

>This total was the nation’s second lowest since November, 2010 ($114.63 billion). The lowest was January’s $116.77 billion.

>The goods trade deficit is now down 2.77 percent year on year, with exports down 8.65 percent and 6.23 percent.

>The March figures also revealed that, year on year, the U.S. oil trade deficit is down 57.15 percent – from $25.95 billion for the first three months of 2015 to $11.12 billion during the first quarter of this year.

>In inflation-adjusted terms, the oil trade deficit is down 1.63 percent year on year – from $17.23 billion to $16.95 billion.

>Another record set in March was for high tech goods exports – $31.52 billion. (Figures go back to 1989.) That represented a 23.28 percent increase over the February figure.

>Largely as a result, the chronic but volatile U.S. trade deficit in this category fell by 35.06 percent on month, from $5.14 billion to $3.34 billion – the lowest total since last February ($3.13 billion).

>High tech goods imports increased robustly as well – by 13.51 percent, from $30.71 billion to $34.86 billion.

>March was a good month for U.S. services trade, too. The surplus rose 2.85 percent, to $18.07 billion, from February’s downwardly revised $17.57 billion. March’s surplus was the biggest since last June.

>Services exports ticked up by 0.51 percent, from February’s upwardly adjusted $59.49 billion to $59.80 billion. Imports dipped 0.47 percent, from an upwardly adjusted $41.92 billion to $41.73 billion.

>March services exports and imports both represented the third highest monthly totals on record.

>Year on year, however, the services surplus is down 7.41 percent, as exports have fallen fractionally and imports have risen 3.49 percent.

>The March contraction in America’s overall trade deficit and its goods trade deficit was also attributable to the biggest drop in the monthly goods trade shortfall with China in more than four years.

>This chronic bilateral merchandise deficit plummeted from $28.11 billion in February to $20.90 billion. That’s the smallest such figure since February, 2014’s $20.85 billion.

>Moreover, the 25.65 percent sequential decrease was the largest since February, 2012’s 25.86 percent.

>U.S. goods exports to China jumped by 11.23 percent in March – to $8.95 billion from $8.05 billion in March.

>American merchandise imports from China cratered by 17.44 percent in March – from $36.16 billion in February to $29.85 billion.

>The huge and chronic U.S. manufacturing trade deficit decreased by 4.43 percent in March, from $65.89 billion to $62.97 billion. Notably, both imports and exports surged.

>Manufacturing sales abroad rose by 12.38 percent, from $82.53 billion to $92.74 billion. The much larger volume of imports, however, increased by a strong 4.91 percent as well, from $148.41 billion to $155.70 billion.

>Year on year, the manufacturing trade deficit has increased by 3.86 percent through March – from $187.08 billion to $194.30 billion. This growth rate is considerably slower than that of recent years.

>Manufacturing exports year on year are down by 7.11 percent so far, from $273.96 billion to $254.49 billion. The much greater amount of manufacturing imports has fallen so far by only 2.66 percent – from $461.03 billion to $448.78 billion.

>Despite the relatively good March totals generally, a high figure for the inflation-adjusted non-oil goods deficit pushed the trade drag on cumulative recovery-era growth still higher.

>Incorporating the category’s $54.84 billion March trade gap, the expansion of the non-oil trade deficit has now reduced recovery era real growth of $2.1371 trillion (since the second quarter of 2009), by $430.18 billion – or 20.13 percent.

>Since non-oil trade flows are those that are most significantly affected by trade agreements and related policies, this trade deficit’s growth-killing impact considerably weakens the case for Congress ratifying President Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Growth Slowing but Trade Deficit Keeps Rising

Tags

Canada, China, Eurozone, exports, high tech goods, imports, Japan, Korea, manufacturing, Mexico, oil, recovery, services trade, TPP, Trade, trade deficit, Trans-Pacific Partnership, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The U.S. total trade deficit rose to a six-month high of $47.06 billion despite mounting signs of an American economic slowdown and many of the best oil-related trade numbers in more than a decade. Combined goods and services exports and imports both improved, but their January levels were multi-year lows. February services imports of $41.80 billion hit a new monthly record.

The chronic bilateral goods deficit with China narrowed but the longstanding manufacturing shortfall widened and both are running well ahead of 2015’s record levels. Meanwhile, the case for President Obama’s Pacific Rim trade deal was weakened again by a high goods deficit with Korea – whose bilateral trade deal with the United States is the TPP’s model.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (February) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>Despite signs of a slowing U.S. economy and an historically low oil products trade deficit figure, the nation’s goods and services trade deficit hit a six-month high in February, rising 2.57 percent over January’s upwardly revised $45.88 billion to $47.06 billion.

>America’s oil trade shortfall sank 23.15 percent in February to $3.55 billion – its lowest level before adjusting for deflation since March, 1999. Current dollar oil-related imports dropped by 11.77 percent on month to $9.85 billion – their lowest level since September, 2002.

>Current dollar oil-related exports slipped as well – by 3.74 percent, from $6.55 billion to $6.30 billion. That total is the lowest since September, 2010.

>In another milestone, U.S. services imports in February rose by 0.63 percent from upwardly revised January levels to $41.80 billion – an all-time high.

>Overall U.S. exports inched up by 1.01 percent in February, from a downwardly adjusted $176.29 billion to $178.07 billion. The January export total was the smallest since June, 2011.

>Combined goods and services imports were up 1.33 percent on month, from an upwardly revise $222. 17 billion to $225. 13 billion. The former had been the lowest figure since April, 2011.

>The February numbers brought 2016’s goods and services trade shortfall to $92.94 billion – up 13.14 percent from 2015 levels.

>Overall 2016 exports are now down by 5.47 percent on an annual basis, but combined imports are off only 2.13 percent.

>The longstanding U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China dipped by 2.84 percent on month in February, from $28.93 billion to $28.12 billion. This shortfall has now decreased for five of the last six months, but remains by far America’s largest trade gap with an individual competitor or regional grouping.

>February’s results bring the 2016 merchandise trade deficit with China to $57.05 billion – up 11.53 percent from the comparable 2015 totals.

>America’s chronic manufacturing trade deficit ticked up by 0.70 percent in Feb – from January’s $65.44 billion to $65.89 billion.

>Manufacturing exports rose sequentially by 4.16 percent in February, but the much larger amount of manufacturing imports increased by 2.59 percent.

>Year on year, the manufacturing trade deficit is now running 14.08 percent ahead of 2015’s record levels.

>America’s trade deficit in high tech goods rose in February as well – by 3.21 percent over January levels, to $5.14 billion. U.S. high tech exports advanced by 0.40 percent on month in February, while imports increased by 0.86 percent.

>The high tech deficit is now running 24.91 percent ahead of 2015 levels.

>In developments with other important competitors, the U.S. goods deficit with South Korea – whose recent trade deal with the United States is the model for President Obama’s proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement – fell sequentially in February by 9.95 percent, to $2.45 billion.

>This monthly total, however, is more than four times the level of March, 2012, when the bilateral agreement went into effect.

>U.S. goods exports to Korea were down on month by 3.18 percent to $3.09 billion – their smallest monthly total since September, 2013.

>U.S. goods imports from Korea declined by 6.30 percent sequentially, to $5.54 billion.

>The oil-heavy U.S. goods deficit with Canada plunged by nearly 60 percent on month, to $1.02 billion, led by the lowest import total ($21.82 billion) since February, 2010.

>Yet the U.S. merchandise shortfall with its other partner in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico, increased by 14.55 percent in February. The goods trade gaps with the Eurozone and Japan rose by 8.97 percent and 9.42 percent, respectively, on month.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Yet More New Records (Not the Good Kind) for U.S. Manufacturing and China Trade

Tags

China, exports, free trade agreements, high tech goods, imports, manufacturing, oil trade, recovery, Trade, Trade Deficits, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit sank by more than 15 percent on month in September, but new monthly records were set by the gaps with China and in manufacturing – which generates an outsized share of the economy’s high-wage employment and typically leads in productivity growth and innovation. China goods and high tech products imports rose to record monthly highs in September, too.

Although the domestic energy production revolution helped drag the current-dollar petroleum deficit to a near-14 year low, the September figures revealed that the policy-influenced portion of U.S. trade flows has reduced growth during the current economic recovery by nearly 20 percent in real terms – or more than $400 billion.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (September) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>Although the combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit shrank in September from a downwardly adjusted $48.02 billion to $40.81 billion, the U.S. shortfalls in manufacturing ($74.69 billion) and in goods with China ($36.28 billion) set new monthly records. In addition, in current-dollar terms, the U.S. petroleum deficit sank to its lowest monthly level ($5.58 billion) since December, 2001.

>The total September trade deficit improved sequentially by 15.01 percent both because combined exports rose by 1.60 percent, from a downwardly adjusted $184.94 billion to $187.90 billion, and because combined imports dropped by 1.82 percent, from a downwardly adjusted $232.96 billion to $228.71 billion – the year’s second-lowest total.

>Yet despite continuing claims of an imminent renaissance in the sector, the trade deficit in manufacturing hit a record $74.69 billion in September. That figure topped the previous all-time high of $73.58 billion, set in July, by 1.51 percent.

>September manufactures exports dipped on month by 0.26 percent – from $93.07 billion to $92.82 billion. Manufactures imports rose from $166.11 billion to $167.52 billion, or 0.85 percent.

>On a year-to-date basis, moreover, the manufacturing trade deficit this year is running 14.77 percent ahead of 2014’s total of $734.44 billion, which itself set a new record. Manufacturing exports this year have fallen by 5.65 percent, but imports are up by two percent – making clear that the strong dollar effect undercutting U.S. manufacturing production and employment lately are being felt on both sides of the trade ledger.

>America’s manufacturing-heavy trade with China turned in a similar performance in September. The bilateral merchandise deficit jumped by 9.53 percent over the August levels to $36.28 billion – another all-time high. The previous record, $35.61 billion, was set the previous September.

>U.S. goods exports to China rose by 2.73 on month, from $9.17 billion to $9.42 billion – even though China’s economy continues to grow strongly by international standards. But the much greater amount of goods imports increased faster, by 3.58 percent, from $44.12 billion to a new record $45.70 billion. (The previous monthly high was $45.16 billion, set in October, 2014.)

>Year to date, the U.S. merchandise deficit with China is running 8.42 percent ahead of last year’s rate, totalling $273.57 billion versus $252.32 billion. As a result, it’s virtually certain to surpass 2014’s record full-year bilateral merchandise trade deficit of $343.08 billion.

>Year to date, U.S. goods exports to China are down from $86.76 billion to $83.99 billion (or 3.19 percent). U.S. goods imports from China, however, are up 5.45 percent – from $339.08 billion to $357.57 billion.

>America’s longstanding current-dollar petroleum trade deficit not only represented the second lowest figure since December, 2001 ($5.58 billion versus $5.50 billion). It was also 19.71 percent lower than August’s $6.95 billion.

>In another area of concern, the longstanding U.S. trade deficit in high tech goods surged by nearly 50 percent on month in September, to $10.82 billion. These trade flows tend to be volatile, but the gap was the third highest on record, and was mainly fueled by an all-time high monthly high import total of $40.22 billion.

>The September figures also confirmed that the nation’s trade performance – and especially the trade flows heavily influenced by trade agreements and similar policy decisions – have drained major amounts of valuable growth from America’s already sluggish economic recovery.

>The inflation-adjusted goods deficit for the third quarter of 2015 – which strips out trade in oil and services that are not significantly affected by trade policies – has now come in at a record $166.75 billion on an annualized basis. As a result, its increase – from $65.95 billion in the second quarter of 2009, when the last recession ended – has slowed the economy’s cumulative growth by $403.21 billion, or 19.78 percent. Worse, virtually all of this lost growth has come in the private sector.

>The September trade figures brought the combined pre-inflation U.S. Global trade deficit to $394.92 billion this year – 3.93 greater than the $380.00 billion for the first nine months of 2014.

>U.S. exports year-to-date are down 3.78 percent, but the much greater amount of imports is down only 2.41 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: July Trade Gap Falls but U.S. Deficits in Manufacturing & with EU Set New Monthly Records

Tags

China, European Union, exports, free trade agreements, high tech goods, imports, Korea, KORUS, manufacturing, non-oil goods deficit, Obama, oil, TPP, Trade, trade deficit, Trans-Pacific Partnership, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit narrowed on month in July in part because June’s total was revised sharply upward. America’s trade deficits in manufacturing and with the European Union both set their second straight monthly records, with the former headed for its third consecutive yearly all-time high. China’s mounting economic ills, meanwhile, are not preventing the PRC from staying on track to rack up yet another annual goods trade surplus of its own with the United States.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (July) trade figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>The total U.S. trade deficit for July fell to its lowest monthly level in five months, though the improvement was partly offset by a unusually large upward revision in the June figure, and new monthly record deficits were set in the manufacturing sector and in goods with the European Union (EU).

>The July combined goods and services deficit of $41.86 billion was the nation’s lowest since February’s $38.54 billion, and came in 7.39 percent below June’s $45.21 billion. But the June reading was revised up an unusually large 3.12 percent, from the initially reported $43.84 billion. June exports were lower than first estimated, and June imports higher.

>The U.S. deficit in manufactures trade set its second straight monthly record in July, with the $73.58 billion shortfall exceeding the old June mark of $72.71 billion by 1.20 percent.

>U.S. manufacturing exports dropped 5.29 percent in July, from $97.52 billion to $92.36 billion. Manufactures imports fell by only 2.52 percent, from $170.23 billion to $165.94 billion.

>As a result, on a year-to-date basis, American manufacturing stayed on target for its third straight record annual trade deficit. Between last January and July, the manufacturing trade deficit totalled  $406.57 billion. This year’s comparable total of $466.62 billion is 14.66% greater  .

>Year to date manufacturing exports are down 4.93 percent, from $690.36 billion to $656.33 billion. Manufacturing imports are up 2.37 percent, from $1.09693 trillion to $1.12294 trillion.

>The July U.S. goods trade shortfall with the European Union rose to $15.18 billion in July – a mark that topped June’s previous record $14.45 billion by 5.03 percent. U.S. merchandise exports to this economically troubled group of countries sank by 5.33 percent, from $22.91 billion to $21.69 billion, while American merchandise imports dipped by 1.32 percent, from $37.36 billion to $36.87 billion.

>On a year-to-date basis, the goods trade gap with the EU has risen by 7.21 percent so far this year, from $80.95 billion to $86.79 billion.

>The July figures showed that total U.S. exports reversed two straight months of decreases, and advanced by 0.43 percent on month, from a downwardly revised $187.69 billion to $188.50 billion. U.S. imports declined by 1.09 percent from an upwardly revised $232.90 billion to $230.36 billion, their lowest level since February.

>Through the first seven months of this year, the combined U.S. trade deficit is running 3.59 percent ahead of last year’s January-July total.

>The U.S. oil trade deficit jumped for the second straight month in July, by 11.10 percent to $8.11 billion – the second highest figure for this year. But this shortfall is still less than half as large as last year’s on a year-to-date basis.

>The non-oil goods deficit dropped by 7.08 percent, to $51.13 billion, but is still running 21.81 percent ahead of 2014’s January-July figure.

>The U.S.-China merchandise trade deficit reached $31.58 billion in July – just 0.38 percent higher than the June figure but its highest total of this year, and the biggest since last October.

>American goods exports to China decreased by 1.93 percent on month, from $9.69 billion to $9.50 billion. U.S. merchandise imports from the PRC were off only fractionally, to $41.08 billion.

>On a year-to-date basis, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China is currently 8.55 percent higher than last year’s record level. U.S. goods exports to the slowing PRC economy are down 3.57 percent during this period, but U.S. goods imports are 5.32 percent greater.

>The U.S. goods trade gap with Korea – whose bilateral KORUS agreement with the United States is a model for President Obama’s prospective Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal – rose by another 6.35 percent on month in July. U.S. exports were down and imports were up compared with June’s figures.

>Since the trade deal went into effect in March, 2012, the American merchandise trade deficit with Korea has surged by nearly 375 percent on a monthly basis.

>One bright spot in the July trade report came in high tech goods trade. The U.S. deficit fell on month by 15.93 percent, from $8.80 billion to $7.40 billion. Both exports and imports declined.

>On a year-to-date basis, however, the high tech goods deficit is running 5.68 percent ahead of last year’s pace.