Our So-Called Foreign Policy: Maybe Biden Has Decided to Fleece China?

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Biden, China, foreign direct investment, Hunter Biden, Hunter Biden laptop, Our So-Called Foreign Policy, Taiwan, tariffs

President Biden’s China policy is one of the biggest mysteries I’ve ever encountered. It’s not just that he’s continued Trump administration policies that he strongly criticized as a 2020 candidate for the White House (notably the former President’s towering and sweeping tariffs). It’s not just that he’s gone much further than Trump (notably on controls of exports to China’s high tech industries and on several pledges to come to Taiwan’s defense if the Chinese attack the island). It’s not just that on other policy fronts he’s been much less hawkish – as on some Chinese acquisitions of sensitive U.S. assets (see, e.g., here) and the recent spy balloon mess.

It’s not even just that he’s supported any hard line (and long overdue) approaches to China after a lifetime in public service strongly supporting the strategy that’s actually helped enable China’s development as a powerful, dangerous U.S. adversary.

After all, it’s still reasonable to argue that that was then and this is now, that the China threat is now front and center rather than simply potential, and that Mr. Biden has changed with the times. Or that the President has concluded that, whatever his personal beliefs might be, he’s had no choice but to shift with an American public that’s grown deeply alarmed by that China threat.

It’s that the Biden China policies have been in my view overall praiseworthy despite clear evidence that before his election, he and his family were greatly enriched by the Beijing regime – and that despite his indignant denials, he knew about at least some of this all the while.

There are his son Hunter’s lucrative dealings with various Chinese entities and individuals that were amply documented in materials found on his laptop computer. There’s the email showing that “the big guy” would get a ten percent share of the business created by one of these agreements. There are numerous other indications that Hunter’s finances were completely commingled with those of the rest of his family – including his father. And now there’s the revelation that Chinese donors have given major sums to not one but two American universities once these schools set up facilities related to the former U.S. Senator from Delaware and Vice President – and that the so-called research center set up in his name at the University of Pennsylvania paid him handsomely for token on-campus appearances.

Yet the President’s record unmistakably shows, despite endless charges by his (overwhelmingly Republican) and conservative critics, that he’s by no means been consistently, much less mainly, soft on China. So what could be going on here?

One possible explanation, which I’ve seen nowhere else, is that suggested by the headline: that Mr. Biden has simply decided to fleece the Chinese – to take the money and run. Not that he’s chosen to confront Beijing at every possible opportunity, or turn up the pressure to the max. Rather, despite his family’s ill-gotten gains, he’s concluded (whether rightly or wrongly is a separate matter) that he can defy China’s will with impunity whenever he believes necessary on the merits or politically expedient. Or both.

This theory has the advantage of simplicity. But that doesn’t necessarily make it right. For example, if the President has decided to shaft the Chinese, wouldn’t that mean recklessly risking Beijing’s exposure of its bribery campaign – which could well end Mr. Biden’s political career and open him to criminal and even worse charges if he needed to leave office? And yet, this course of action could backfire on China as well, whatever its effects on the President, by hardening anti-Beijing American opinion even further and turning U.S. policy even more confrontational for a very long time.

Of course, this is all speculation. But it’s more consistent with the ambiguous evidence than either the claim that Mr. Biden has sold out to China, or that there’s nothing to see about the bribery and influence-peddling allegations at all. I’m hoping that upcoming Congressional investigations shed some more light on the matter. In the meantime, what do you readers think?

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Im-Politic: Why It’s Time for Trump to Go

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anti-semitism, Capitol riot, censorship, conservative populist nationalism, conservatives, Constitution, culture wars, election 2016, election 2020, election 2022, election 2024, Glenn Youngkin, Hunter Biden laptop, Im-Politic, January 6, nationalism, Pat Buchanan, politics, Populism, Republicans, Ron DeSantis, Ross Perot, social media, Trump, Twitter Files

There are several reasons I haven’t posted yet on Donald Trump’s absolutely terrible last few weeks, some obvious, some not so much.

Among the former – clearly, as someone who proudly voted for him twice, and considers his Oval Office record on the issues impressive, I’ve been crestfallen by the number of serious and completely unnecessary “own goals” the former President has committed lately. The two worst: the lunch at his Florida estate with two outspoken ant-semites, and his social media claim that revelations of major social media collusion with Democrats during the 2020 presidential campaign “allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”

It’s not that I’ve been forced to conclude that Trump is an anti-semite. Not when his daughter is married to a Jew, when for so long, so many of his closest business associates have been Jewish, and when he’s arguably been the most pro-Israel President in U.S. history.

Nor do I believe that he really wants to suspend the Constitution because he believes that the 2020 election was stolen from him, his activity during the run-up to January 6^th notwithstanding. Instead, I write it off as the kind of thoughtless outburst that’s come from him many times, and that stemmed from a frustration over the “Twitter Files” disclosures that’s not entirely incomprehensible. (Even this blatant Mainstream Media Biden apologist doesn’t rule out the possibility that because the election turned on such small vote totals in a handful of states, Trump might still be sitting in the White House had the Hunter Biden laptop story been widely suppressed during the general campaign.)

My main evidence? In two days, Trump denied suggesting what he actually suggested. Which sounds to me much more like crappy judgment than like conviction.

But to return to the main point of this post (which isn’t fighting these battles), my main less-obvious reason for keeping off the subject is one I’ve referred to before: an unwillingness to write about something unless I can think of something original to say. And so many valid points have been made by so many commentators about what Trump’s latest blunders say about his qualifications for a second term and/or his electability.that I’ve had difficulty adding to them.

Finally, however, I’ve come up with two, and they’re important enough to me to make clear that Trump’s usefulness in American politics and policy – which I view as considerable – has come and gone.

The first point has to do with Trump’s longtime habit of associating himself one way or another with figures with odious views – like the two anti-semites. Although as I said above, there’s no serious reason to think he subscribes to those views. But these repeated episodes aren’t coincidental, either, and clearly stem from his tendency to gravitate, at least temporarily, toward anyone who expresses anything remotely positive about him.

This pattern must stem from a degree of personal insecurity that seems to have been noteworthy enough even before a presidency marked by a long, almost nonstop series of false charges like the Russia collusion hoax. But however natural this reaction was, it also produced an equally long series of controversies (like this) that (a) did nothing to shore up his support with the faithful; and (b) greatly and understandably antagonized plenty of middle-of-the-road voters (including Republicans) who are generally with him on the issues.

His latest misadventures only indicate that this habit will continue – if only because the baseless attacks will. So with Trump as its standard bearer, the Republican Party, and the populist stances now strongly favored by its voters (if not by its thankfully vanishing D.C.-centric establishment wing) will struggle mightily at best to reach its full potential – a working class oriented majority coalition big and durable enough to generate thoroughgoing, lasting change.

Moreover, Trump’s uncritical attraction to any and all admirers surely explains much about his increasingly lousy record in distinguishing political winners from losers – which was displayed so prominently during last month’s midterm elections. And good luck creating a durable political movement without strong Congressional coattails.

The second original-as-I-see-it point has to do with a phenomenon that’s been commonly observed in business: The person who creates something turns out to be incapable of running it longer term. And it’s no mystery why. The two tasks require two different skill sets.

Trump unquestionably was indispensable to the triumph of modern conservative nationalist populism. After this embyronic movement (or, more accurately, related set of impulses, grievances, and leanings), experienced false starts led by former Nixon White House aide-turned-pundit Pat Buchanan, and by businessman Ross Perot, Trump achieved the breakthrough via a combination of stylistic convention-shattering and exciting new combinations of policy positions (notably, some standard conservative tax- and regulation-cutting along with economic nationalist trade and immigration stances and America First-focused foreign policies). Moreover, it’s unlikely that a politician with a more conventional personality could have left so many self-serving establishment shibboleths dead and buried, and channeled popular anger at the too-often bipartisan national power structure so effectively.

But that battle has been won hands down. The challenge for conservative nationalist populists is, as the consultants say, to expand the base. And that inevitably means appealing to voters who sympathize with the content of its platform, but who also insist on leaders who won’t force them to keep their noses held, and who seem determined to enflame rather than ease national passions. (A focus on fostering division while projecting images of sobriety, by the way, is a good desciption of many Democratic and progressive culture war shock troopers.)

Those gettable non-Republican conservatives and moderate are voters afflicted with what’s been called Trump Fatigue. And despite the major policy successes of his administration (e.g., a solidly growing, non-inflationary economy; a far more secure southern border; a halt to the enabling of China; an avoidance of pointless new foreign wars), who can blame them? Why would they look forward to four more years of national turbulence – especially since, as was not the case in 2016 and 2020, they may well have alternatives who can give them both a rousing and successful championing of populist economic and selected culture war causes on the one hand, and qualities like sound judgement and self-discipline and rhetorical precision on the other.

Of course, I’m talking about politicians like Republican Governors Glenn Youngkin of Virginia and Ron DeSantis of Florida. The former, as I documented here, both won in an increasingly Democratic state and outpolled Trump’s failed reelection campaign even in rural counties chock full of hard-core Trumpers. I haven’t examined the DeSantis win last month in detail, but he achieved even greater success in a state that’s at least as diverse (though trending Republican lately).

And in fact, polls are now showing (e.g., here) not only that the former President has lost big-time ground to his possible Sunshine State rival among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, but that by large majoities, these groups “now say they want Trump’s policies but a different standard-bearer to carry them.” The inclusion of the leaners in such surveys is especially important, as they comprise a critical share of those gettable independents that could put a GOP candidate over the top in 2024 and enable him or her to shape the nation’s politics and policies for decades to come.

Here’s a way to look at these matters that I wish wasn’t so completely religious in nature but that probably makes the point like none other (and precisely for that reason): Trump was the guy needed to bring conservative nationalist populism to the mountain top of victory in 2016. But he’s anyone but the guy to lead it to the promised land of lasting political and policy supremacy.

Those Stubborn Facts: Intelligence Failures

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accountability, collusion, Deep State, disinformation, Donald Trump, election 2020, Hunter Biden, Hunter Biden emails, Hunter Biden laptop, intelligence community, misinformation, Never Trumper, The New York Post, Those Stubborn Facts, Trump-Russia

# of former U.S. intelligence/security officials who before Election

2020 insinuated that the Hunter Biden laptop emails reported by the

NY Posts stemmed from a “Russian information campaign” despite

lacking “evidence of Russian involvement”: 51

 

# of such officials who didn’t respond to request for apology: 39

# of such officials who declined to comment to this request: 4

# of such officials who stood by the charge: 5

# of such officials who couldn’t be reached: 2

# of such officials who apologized for the charge: 0

 

(Sources: “Public Statement on the Hunter Biden Emails,” October 19, 2020, https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-4393-d7aa-af77-579f9b330000 & “Spies who lie: 51 ‘intelligence’ experts refuse to apologize for discrediting true Hunter Biden story,” by Post Editorial Board, The New York Post, March 18, 2022, https://nypost.com/2022/03/18/intelligence-experts-refuse-to-apologize-for-smearing-hunter-biden-story/)