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Tag Archives: IndustryWeek

Making News: New Trade Article on Lifezette.com – & More!

09 Tuesday Aug 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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IndustryWeek, Jobs, Lifezette.com, Making News, manufacturing, TPP, TPP. Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trade, wages

I’m pleased to announce the publication of my latest freelance article.  The piece, which appears today on Lifezette.com, reports on a U.S. trade agreement partner that could be violating a key commitment in its deal with the United States.  It also explains why the resulting dust-up undermines claims that America’s recently negotiated Pacific Rim trade deal (The Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP) is truly enforceable.

In addition, I was quoted in this Lifezette piece August 6 correcting some of the enthusiasm expressed for last Friday’s monthly U.S. jobs report

And on that Friday, IndustryWeek covered my findings about manufacturing wages rising even though the sector remains mired in a jobs recession.  Click on this link to read.

Keep checking back at RealityChek for news of more media appearances and upcoming events!

 

Making News: Featured in IndustryWeek, Lifezette.com and More!

27 Monday Jun 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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Brexit, IndustryWeek, Lifezette.com, Making News, Zacks.com

I’m pleased to announce three more appearances in major news outlets in the last few days.

Last Friday, as the fallout of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote was spreading, IndustryWeek published a key excerpt from my RealityChek post that morning outlining some initial thoughts on the post-Brexit world.  Click on this link to read it.

Also last Friday, my views were featured in a Lifezette.com post on a new study claiming that Donald Trump’s election as president would be economically disastrous for America.  Here’s the link.

And on June 16, the Zacks.com finance website spotlighted a tweet of mine on bizarre comments from Alibaba CEO Jack Ma on the outstanding quality of the counterfeit goods so easily available at the e-commerce platform.  You can read it at this link.

Keep checking back at RealityChek for more news on recent and upcoming media and related appearances!

 

 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A New Wrinkle but Same Old Manufacturing Renaissance Fairy Tale

10 Friday Jun 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in (What's Left of) Our Economy

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Akron, Brain Belt, IndustryWeek, inflation-adjusted growth, Laura Putre, manufacturing, Ohio, plastics, polymers, recession, recovery, rubber, Rust Belt, technology, The Smartest Places on Earth, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Akron, Ohio, has become one of my favorite places in the world – honest to gosh. I’ve made some wonderful friends there over the years, had some great times, and learned lots from area manufacturers I’ve been lucky enough to get to know.

And because I’ve gotten pretty well acquainted with the city, and studied its economy, I was immediately suspicious of the recent IndustryWeek post spotlighting a book touting Akron as a leading example of “how the Rust Belt is turning into the Brain Belt.”

The thesis of The Smartest Places on Earth, by a former leading Dutch financial journalist and a Washington, D.C.-based economic consultant, has the ring of plausibility. For all its obvious struggles, America’s midwestern manufacturing heartland remains blessed with a wealth of engineering and technological talent and skilled workers. Therefore, it seems well positioned to capitalize on the promise of the newest technologies – which often spring in part from older technologies – and all their outsized growth and employment benefits.

Akron is also a plausible example of this transition. As IndustryWeek reporter Laura Putre correctly observes, “Times were dire for years” in this former center of rubber production. (Think “tires.”) But

“gradually, the region began to capitalize on its existing strengths—the material science expertise of its research universities, its workforce of engineers, scientists and tradespeople—and reinvent itself as the center of the polymer industry. According to statistics from the city’s website, upwards of 35,000 people in the Akron area are now employed in approximately 400 polymer-related companies.”

But here’s the problem: Despite making this transformation, at least according to the most authoritative (U.S. government) data available, Akron remains not only an American growth laggard, but an American manufacturing laggard. And P.S., I’m not talking about employment, which is what practically everyone thinks of when gauging manufacturing’s performance. There’s no doubt that, thanks to productivity improvement, industry today can turn out as much or more product than ever with fewer employees. I’m talking about output – the real measure of the sector’s health.

If Akron was getting so successful, why did its inflation-adjusted manufacturing production fall by so much more during the last recession (26.71 percent) than that of America’s cities as a whole (9.71 percent)?

Maybe something about the recession hit Akron harder than the rest of the country’s urban areas, and since the recovery has begun, it’s done much better? The numbers don’t bear out that thesis, either. From 2009 through 2014 (the latest figures available), Akron’s real manufacturing production rose by just 6.70 percent. Overall U.S. manufacturing urban output was up by 10.69 percent.

As a result, as of 2014, manufacturing in America’s cities was just 0.60 percent smaller than the peak it reached in 2007, just before the recession struck. In Akron, industry was still 21.80 percent below that peak.

The Smartest Places on Earth looks right on one point: The plastics and rubber industry (government data don’t separate them) helped prevent Akron manufacturing from performing even worse. During the recession, its after-inflation production dropped by only 6.52 percent, and since 2010, it’s risen by 19.45 percent. (These more detailed data only go up to 2013.)

But that improvement hasn’t been nearly enough to offset subpar performances in other major manufacturing sectors, especially fabricated metal products, machinery, and chemicals. Largely as a result, in real terms, manufacturing’s share of the Akron economy dipped from 15.63 percent in 2009 to 15.45 percent in 2014. (For U.S. metropolitan areas as a whole, it inched up from 11.51 percent to 11.55 percent.)

And that’s not because the rest of Akron’s economy has been killing it, even relatively speaking, during this historically feeble economic recovery. Since 2009, its constant-dollar growth has trailed that of American cities as a whole by 9.04 percent to 10.30 percent.

One of The Smartest Places on Earth‘s authors told Putre in an interview that the results of the kinds of transformations foreseen in the book “start to show up really in ten plus years.” And certainly no one should expect miracles, or anything close, overnight. But in the last year, American manufacturing has gone through an especially tough stretch, and Akron manufacturers told me on a recent trip that their area has been no exception. So just as with claims of a general U.S. Manufacturing renaissance, a heavy burden of proof remains with those insisting that a Brain Belt transformation will be a Rust Belt miracle worker.

Making News: On National Radio Tonight and More!

08 Wednesday Jun 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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China, Gordon Chang, IndustryWeek, Lifezette.com, Making News, The John Batchelor Show

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to appear tonight on John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show.  The segment, slated to start at 10 PM EST, will deal with a recently concluded round of high-level negotiations between the United States and China.

Click here to listen live to what’s sure to be an informative – and maybe heated! – review of this crucial relationship among John, co-host Gordon Chang, and me.   As usual, I’ll post a podcast of the segment as soon as one’s available.

Also, it was great to be featured in this June 3 IndustryWeek report on two major new sets of manufacturing data.

And I was quoted quoted as well in in two news articles on Lifezette.com – this June 1, piece on why Elkhart, Indiana was a strange location for President Obama to make his claim that his policies are largely responsible for a U.S. economy that he believes is clicking on most cylinders; and this May 23 article on the economic and political implications of a major new study of American inequality.

Keep checking back with RealityChek for ongoing news of upcoming media appearances and other developments!

Making News: Recent Op-Eds, Podcasts, and More!

08 Friday Apr 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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IndustryWeek, Lifezette.com, Making News, Ray Horner, The Laura Ingraham Show, The Washington Post, WAKR-AM

I’m pleased to announce that it’s been a busy media week!  Let’s start with the latest development and work our way back.

This morning, Lifezette.com published my latest outside article.  It’s a detailed look at how Washington’s misguided decision to press for China’s admission into the World Trade Organization in 2001 wound up backfiring disastrously on the American steel industry and its workers, and could slam many other advanced manufacturing sectors.  Here’s the link.

To look more closely at the article’s findings, Lifezette founding editor Laura Ingraham interviewed me on her nationally syndicated radio show this morning.  Here’s the link to the podcast.   My segment starts at about the 55-minute mark, and I get introduced at about the 59-minute mark.

Laura and I also discussed how such disastrous trade decisions have decimated upstate New York State — which of course is the scene these days of heated presidential primary battles involving long-time trade policy critics Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.  And yesterday Lifezette’s coverage of the primary quoted some of my views.  Check it out at this link.

On April 1, IndustryWeek’s coverage of the new March U.S. jobs report featured my analysis of the big losses suffered in manufacturing.  Here’s the link.

That day, Brendan Kirby of Lifezette also spotlighted my same-day report on the manufacturing jobs numbers.  His article is available at this link.

On March 31, the Washington Post’s obituary of noted economist Lester Thurow presented an excerpt from a review I wrote for one of Thurow’s last books.  Click on this link to see it.

On March 30, I appeared on the Ingraham show with guest host Paul Viollis.  Click here for the podcast of our discussion of U.S.-China economic and security relations.

Also, on March 30, I appeared on the Ray Horner Morning Show, on Akron, Ohio’s WAKR-AM radio to talk trade, jobs, and the presidential campaign.  Unfortunately, no podcast is available.

Keep checking RealityChek for ongoing news of upcoming media appearances and other events!

 

Making News: Tonight on Nationally Syndicated Radio — and More!

17 Wednesday Feb 2016

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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Asia, China, Forbes.com, Gordon Chang, IndustryWeek, John Batchelor Show, Making News, national security, Trade

I’m pleased to announce that I’ll be appearing tonight on John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show to discuss the dramatic changes currently underway in U.S. economic and security relations with East Asia. Join John, co-host Gordon Chang, and me starting at 10:30 PM EST for what’s sure to be a lively discussion of:

>this week’s summit among President Obama and his Southeast Asian counterparts;

>China’s new challenges to American security interests in Asia; and

>U.S. trade with the region’s protectionist economies.

Click here to listen live. And as usual, for those who can’t tune in tonight, I’ll post a podcast of the segment as soon as it’s available.

For a preview of the broadcast, check out Gordon’s latest column for Forbes.com — which presents some of my views on U.S. trade with Southeast Asia.

I’m also pleased to have been quoted by Matt LaWell in IndustryWeek in his write-up of today’s Federal Reserve industrial production figures.

 

Making News: Quoted in IndustryWeek and Lifezette.com

03 Thursday Dec 2015

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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China, IndustryWeek, Lifezette.com, Making News, manufacturing

I’m pleased to report more prominent cites in the media for RealityChek and related material. Here’s a rundown:

>Today, Lifezette.com quoted my views on the International Monetary Fund’s recent decision to designate China’s yuan as an world reserve currency.

>On December 1, IndustryWeek‘s assessment of American manufacturing’s prospects for next year included my downbeat forecast.

>On November 23, Lifezette featured my analysis of China’s growing investment footprint in the U.S. Economy.

>On November 17, IndustryWeek quoted from my same-day report on October U.S. industrial production – which emphasized the costs of recent record manufacturing trade deficits.

Keep checking in with RealityChek for new reports on such media appearances!

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: More Measures of U.S. Manufacturing Weakness

30 Monday Nov 2015

Posted by Alan Tonelson in (What's Left of) Our Economy

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Business Employment Dynamics, Census Bureau, consolidation, Great Recession, IndustryWeek, Labor Department, manufacturing, manufacturing renaissance, mergers, Michael Collins, takeovers, {What's Left of) Our Economy

RealityChek has looked at U.S. domestic manufacturing’s health through the lenses of employment, wages, output, trade balances, and productivity. All have revealed a pretty dismal picture these days. But since manufacturing renaissance claims still persist, here are two other indicators that strongly suggest that the sector is hardly in a golden age – the numbers of manufacturing establishments and firms in America.

Among those who closely follow the sector, it’s widely recognized that there’s been major shrinkage in the number of manufacturing establishments in America since the early 1990s. But that number has always been a little fuzzy, because “establishment” can mean “individual facility.” Since manufacturing’s efficiency has kept growing for most of this period, fewer establishments could partly, or mainly, mean that companies are simply closing factories or other assets that are no longer needed to maintain or even increase output levels.

Luckily, surfing around U.S. government data sites today, I’ve found two statistical series that allow more definitive conclusions to be drawn. The first comes from the Labor Department, and consists of figures on establishment births and deaths by industry that are part of the Business Employment Dynamics data I used recently to shed new light on manufacturing employment. As suggested by the name, establishment “deaths” don’t come back to life whereas “closing” decisions can be temporary for a variety of reasons – including seasonal fluctuations in demand and work flow. Deaths can still stem from greater efficiency, too, but logically more of them reflect declining fortunes in the sector.

The first full year for these figures is 1994, and the most recent numbers are from the first half of last year. What they show is that 67,000 more manufacturing establishments died than were born during this period. The Great Recession of course took a major toll. Between 2007 and 2009 alone, 18,000 of these deaths took place. But domestic manufacturing has also been in the red in this regard ever since. And although establishment deaths actually have been at historically low levels in the last few years (bottoming at 21,000 in 2012 and 2013), so have establishment births. Moreover, they sunk to 20,000 in 2009 and have remained there ever since.

Just as important, establishment deaths have exceeded births throughout the current recovery. To be sure, the situation was even worse during the last recovery. But that expansion of course turned out to be a humongous economic bubble, and no one was claiming that American industry was in the best of health then.

A Census Bureau series with birth and death figures at the firm level within manufacturing tells an even grimmer story. The death of companies is much less likely to be a sign of greater efficiency than even the death of establishments, since dead companies aren’t going to be reopening their facilities. These Census statistics date from 1977 and run through 2013. They show that in that first data year, 259,982 manufacturing companies were in operation in the United States. These ranks peaked at 302,306 in 1996, but as of two years ago, stood at only 230,708. And as with the establishment births and deaths numbers, the number of companies kept on shrinking once the last recession ended (in 2009) – from 250,707.  And shortly afterward the manufacturing renaissance was first forecast.

There is one possible mitigating factor here. A fascinating article in IndustryWeek last June called attention to the growing trend of consolidation in manufacturing. Manufacturing firms merging with or acquiring each other, or combining with non-manufacturing firms, would obviously reduce the number of industrial companies without indicating any loss of dynamism or competitiveness.

According to numbers presented by author Michael Collins, from the late 1940s till the onset of the last recession in 2007, ownership concentration in manufacturing has increased more than seven-fold. And these concentration levels really began taking off in the mid-1980s, once changes in financial regulation fostered a wave of corporate takeovers by greatly encouraging the use of debt and leverage. Collins doesn’t present any such data for this recovery, but it’s likely this trend has continued given how the Federal Reserve’s easy money stimulus policies have kept interest rates at historic peacetime lows.

So the shrinkage in manufacturing firm numbers due to business failure needs to be teased out from the number due to consolidation, and as a result, these decreases could still be consistent even with claims of an historically healthy U.S. manufacturing sector. But that’s a case that the manufacturing renaissance crowd still needs to make.

Making News: Coverage by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, IndustryWeek – & More!

19 Thursday Nov 2015

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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Bloomberg, CNNMoney, IndustryWeek, Jewocity.com, Making News, Ozy.com, Plastics Today

I’m pleased to report that November so far has seen lots of RealityChek and related material cited in the media. Here’s a rundown:

>Today, CNNMoney’s Heather Long quoted me on the headwinds still facing the domestic manufacturing sector. Her report so far has been re-posted by Madison, Wisconsin’s WISC-TV, and by the Hartford, Conn. Business Journal.

>On November 11, Simon Constable’s Ozy.com post featured my views on why President Obama’s new Pacific Rim trade deal was bound to benefit Japan much more than the United States.

>On November 9, Clare Goldsberry’s post for Plastics Today spotlighted my finding that domestic manufacturing was (to that point) stuck in a recession, along with other signs of industry weakness.

>On November 6, IndustryWeek reported my RealityChek post on the jobs recession manufacturing is still suffering. And yesterday, this point was picked up on the Jewish business-oriented site Jewocity.com.

>On November 4, Bloomberg’s Peter Coy covered my finding that September’s U.S. manufacturing and China goods trade deficits had hit new monthly records (the bad kind).

Keep checking in with RealityChek for new reports on such media appearances!

Blogs I Follow

  • Current Thoughts on Trade
  • Protecting U.S. Workers
  • Marc to Market
  • Alastair Winter
  • Smaulgld
  • Reclaim the American Dream
  • Mickey Kaus
  • David Stockman's Contra Corner
  • Washington Decoded
  • Upon Closer inspection
  • Keep America At Work
  • Sober Look
  • Credit Writedowns
  • GubbmintCheese
  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS
  • New Economic Populist
  • George Magnus

(What’s Left Of) Our Economy

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Our So-Called Foreign Policy

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Im-Politic

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Signs of the Apocalypse

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

The Brighter Side

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Those Stubborn Facts

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

The Snide World of Sports

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Guest Posts

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

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Current Thoughts on Trade

Terence P. Stewart

Protecting U.S. Workers

Marc to Market

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Alastair Winter

Chief Economist at Daniel Stewart & Co - Trying to make sense of Global Markets, Macroeconomics & Politics

Smaulgld

Real Estate + Economics + Gold + Silver

Reclaim the American Dream

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Mickey Kaus

Kausfiles

David Stockman's Contra Corner

Washington Decoded

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Upon Closer inspection

Keep America At Work

Sober Look

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Credit Writedowns

Finance, Economics and Markets

GubbmintCheese

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

New Economic Populist

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

George Magnus

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

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