(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Newest Numbers Show Trump’s Real Wages Problem Continues

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Barack Obama, election 2020, inflation adjusted wages, manufacturing, private sector, real wages, Trump, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The big economic message sent by today’s official U.S. data on inflation-adjusted wages is highly concentrated in the so-called benchmark revisions – which adjust the results going back to 2015. And the big political message sent by these revisions is that President Trump’s economic record still suffers from a serious real wage problem – especially in the manufacturing sector, and especially compared with his predecessor, Barack Obama, whose supposed economic failures Mr. Trump has made a major campaign issue.

To be sure, the newest (and unrevised) January statistics weren’t great news for Trump-World, either. Total private sector pay in real terms inched up only 0.09 percent month-to-month, and the annual increase was a mere 0.64 percent. Between the previous Januarys, constant dollar private sector wages improved by a much faster 1.77 percent. (The Labor Department doesn’t track public sector wages, because their levels and growth are determined overwhelmingly by government decisions, and therefore supposedly say little about the state of the labor market or of the entire economy.)

The story for blue-collar workers (called “production and nonsupervisory workers” by the Labor Department and abbreviated here “N/S”) was only a little better. Their real wages flat-lined on month in January, but year-on-year they were up 0.75 percent – more strongly than overall private sector wages, and thereby in synch with numerous observations that pay at the lower end of the scale is rising faster than it is at the upper end.

In manufacturing, however, that picture is more mixed. Overall after-inflation manufacturing wages dipped by -0.09 percent sequentially in January, though they advanced by 0.74 percent year-on-year. That rise was better not only than that of total private sector workers, but than of its own performance the previous year – which saw zero increase in these wages.

Price-adjusted wages for manufacturing’s blue collar workforce, however, fared only negligibly better than for all manufacturing employees – flat-lining versus a small decline. And year-on-year they increased by less than a third the rate of pay for all manufacturing workers (0.23 percent) and much more slowly than the year before (1.37 percent).

The good news for Mr. Trump – the revisions put more of a shine on his job creation record over the last two years, as shown in the tables below. (Keep in mind that they only take the story through December, 2019 – because today’s January figures haven’t been revised yet.)

                                                                     Unrevised

                                     Total private     N/S private     Total mfg      N/S mfg

Year-on-year, 2019:         +0.64%           +0.75%          +0.74%        +0.45%

Year-on-year, 2018:         +0.56%          +1.63%                0%          +1.14%

                                                                      Revised

                                    Total private      N/S private     Total mfg      N/S mfg

Year-on-year, 2019:        +0.73%           +0.85%           +0.74%        +0.45%

Year-on-year, 2018:        +1.40%          +1.74%                 0%          +1.03%

Interestingly, though, the biggest changes came for all private sector workers. And the updates make the picture for blue-collar manufacturing workers slightly gloomier.

But the revisions still left the Obama years’ real wages performance looking better than those of the Trump years – a comparison that might be raised frequently during this election year. The 34-month periods have been chosen because that’s the amount of time Mr. Trump has been in office since his first full month in the White House (February, 2017. Further, the two time periods are right next to each other in the current business cycle.

The bottom line? The gap between the two administrations closed for all private sector workers and blue collar private sector workers. But it widened in the manufacturing sector.

                                                                Unrevised

                                  Total private      N/S private      Total mfg    N/S mfg

1^st 34 Trump months:    +2.53%           +2.72%          +0.65%       +2.77%

last 34 Obama months: +3.50%           +3.97%          +3.05%       +2.97%

                                                                  Revised

                                  Total private      N/S private      Total mfg    N/S mfg

1^st 34 Trump months:    +2.71%            +3.05%          +0.65%      +2.65%

last 34 Obama months: +3.49%            +3.97%          +3.44%      +3.34%

And finally, the impact of the revisions on real wages trends during the current economic recovery, and on the previous two expansions:

                                                                                 Unrevised

                                                             Private    N/S private    Mfg      N/S mfg

1990s expansion (2Q 91-1Q 01):           n/a          +6.37%        n/a       +2.18%

bubble expansion (4Q 01-4Q 07)         : n/a          +0.35%        n/a       -2.77%

current expansion (2Q 09 – present): +6.30%      +6.79%    +1.59%   +3.01%

                                                                                 Revised                      

                                                              Private   N/S private    Mfg      N/S mfg

1990s expansion (2Q 91-1Q 01):            n/a          +6.51%       n/a        +1.81%

bubble expansion (4Q 01-4Q 07):           n/a         +0.35%        n/a        -2.77%

current expansion (2Q 09 – present):  +6.70%     +7.01% +   1.59%    +2.77%

The big takeaways, as I see them: The real wage performance of the current recovery looks somewhat better than previous thought – except for blue-collar manufacturing paychecks. And the widely admired 1990s expansion looks better for blue-collar private sector workers in toto but worse for their manufacturing counterparts.

Several recent polls show Americans to be unusually happy about the state of the economy and their own personal situations. (For the latest, see here.) These real wage figures indicate that it’s not yet entirely clear why.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Trump’s Real Wage Record Still Needs More Work

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Barack Obama, inflation adjusted wages, Labor Department, manufacturing, private sector, Trump, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The new after-inflation wage figures released this morning by the Labor Department (that bring the story, preliminarily, through November) show that workers’ price-adjusted take home pay remains a feature of President Trump’s economic record that still needs work.

This conclusion comes through loud and clear from the table below. It shows the real hourly wages changes over various periods of time for all private sector workers (Labor doesn’t track public sector wages, since they’re largely set by politicians’ decisions, and therefore say little about the underlying state of the economy), for private sector “production and nonsupervisory” workers (let’s call them “blue-collar” for short) and for all manufacturing and blue-collar manufacturing workers.

                                                                           All workers      Blue-collar workers

November m/m private:                                      0 percent           +0.11 percent

November m/m manufacturing:                      +0.09 percent           0 percent

November y/y private:                                   +1.11 percent         +1.72 percent

November y/y manufacturing:                       +1.02 percent        +1.81 percent

private 1^st 33 Trump months:                         +2.62 percent        +3.16 percent

manufacturing 1^st 33 Trump months:             +0.46 percent        +2.54 percent

private last 33 Obama months:                      +3.69 percent        +4.07 percent

manufacturing last 33 Obama months:          +3.35 percent       +3.46 percent

private since current recovery onset:             +6.40 percent       +7.24 percent

manufacturing since recovery onset:             +1.40 percent       +2.77 percent

The short-term trends look pretty good. In particular, the difference between the latest annual increase in constant dollar private sector wages (1.11 percent) and the increase during the first 33 months of the Trump administration (2.62 percent) makes clear that the last year has a greater average monthly rate of improvement (0.93 percent) than the entire period (0.79 percent). Therefore, there’s been a modest acceleration in real wage increases. (I consider February, 2017 the current administration’s start month, since President Trump was inaugurated on January 20.)

The picture has been even brighter for blue-collar workers, with the average monthly rates of increase standing at 1.56 percent over the last year and (0.96 percent) for Mr. Trump’s entire term in office.

Price-adjusted manufacturing wages have grown slower so far during this Trump term than private sector wages, but acceleration is evident here, too. In fact, it’s been even faster. For all manufacturing workers, after-inflation wages have risen over the past year by an average of 0.85 percent per month. Since Mr. Trump’s inauguration, though, this rate has been only 0.14 percent.

And although also at lower absolute levels of increase, the wage increase pickup has been greater for manufacturing’s blue-collar workers as well – an average monthly gain of 1.51 percent over the last year versus one of only 0.77 percent for the President’s entire tenure.

So what’s the problem? It’s that this wage performance for all categories of workers pales before that from the best comparable Obama administration period – its final 33 months. And the biggest gap has been in manufacturing, for both the total and blue-collar workforces.

It’s entirely possible, as I’ve noted, that the worse record during the Trump years could be due to employers of all kinds, including manufacturing, being forced during a time of super-low joblessness to start hiring workers they’d have never considered before – because they’d likely be so unproductive, at least at first. It’s also entirely possible that this development will yield big long-term benefits for the entire economy. And if it’s true, this thesis would be terrific news for those new workers at first.

But such fine points are even more likely to be ignored or downplayed during an election year than they are normally. Which means that without major progress in the months ahead, Mr. Trump had better hope that his Democratic rivals ignore the details of the wage figures as thoroughly as the media typically do.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Weak Real Wage Increases Under Trump Now Look Only a Little Less Weak

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Democrats, election 2020, inflation adjusted wages, manufacturing, private sector, real wages, Trump, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Those same new official U.S. inflation statistics that reveal how President Trump’s tariffs have or haven’t affected consumer prices can also show whether American workers’ paychecks have been keeping up with the (slowly) rising cost of living. And the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data contains some good news for the nation’s employees, for its manufacturing workers in particular, and as a result for President Trump – although mainly in comparison to inflation-adjusted wages’ lackluster previous performance during his administration.

According to the new real wage figures (which bring the story up to June), price-adjusted pay for workers in the private sector overall rose by 0.18 percent sequentially last month – about in line with the results for the last few months. The year-on-year numbers, though, were much better. Price-adjusted wages improved by 1.49 percent between June, 2018 and June, 2018 – compared with their bare 0.09 percent increase between the previous Junes. (The BLS doesn’t look at government workers’ pay because that’s largely the result of politicians’ decisions, and thus says little about the state of the national labor market.)

The only fly in this ointment: This year so far, annual advances in private sector wages have lost some momentum. The June year-on-year rise was somewhat lower than its January counterpart (1.68 percent).

Real wages in manufacturing lately have made better progress, reversing a trend that’s held until very recently. On a monthly basis, they were up 0.19 percent in June, slightly better than the increase for the private sector generally. The June annual rise of 0.64 percent was less than half the overall private sector figure, but was much better than the change between June, 2017 and June, 2018. Yet that’s only because during that period, real manufacturing wages actually fell by 1.10 percent.

And over longer time periods, the manufacturing results have been similarly mixed compared with the trends for private sector wages generally. For instance, during this calendar year so far, the advance in real manufacturing wages has been more than twice as fast as that for all private sector workers – 0.37 percent to 0.18 percent. Alternatively put, whereas the annual gains in real private sector wages have slowed since January of this year, the 0.64 percent June figure for manufacturing represents a major acceleration from January’s 0.09 percent rate.

Constant dollar manufacturing wages have even closed the immense gap that opened earlier during the current economic recovery with overall private wages.

From the mid-2009 beginning of the ongoing economic expansion (American history’s longest ever) to this June, after-inflation manufacturing pay is up only 1.03 percent in toto versus the 6.01 percent increase for the overall private sector. In other words, the real private sector wage improvement, however modest in and of itself, has been 5.83 times faster.

As of the previous June, however, the gap was 12.05 to one – more than twice as great.

Nevertheless, when it comes to real wages, President Trump still faces a big political problem: Under his administration so far, they’ve risen much more slowly than during the most comparable Obama administration period, both for the private sector overall and especially for manufacturing.

Specifically, during the first 28 months of President Trump’s tenure, after-inflation private sector wages have increased by only 2.25 percent in all, and real manufacturing wages have inched up only 0.09 percent. During the last 28 months of the Obama administration, these numbers were 3.09 percent and 3.52 percent, respectively. If the real wage increases and the private sector-manufacturing gap don’t start getting considerably better soon, expect to hear a lot about such numbers from smart Democrats as the 2020 election approaches.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Real Wages Remain a Trump Economy Weakness

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Barack Obama, blue-collar workers, Employment-Population ratio, inflation adjusted wages, Labor Force Participation Rate, manufacturing, non-supervisory workers, private sector, production workers, real wages, slack, Trump, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

As I’ve written repeatedly, I’m convinced that the economic data conclusively show that the U.S. economy on numerous fronts has kicked into a higher gear during the Trump years. But last week’s inflation-adjusted wage figures are an important reminder of one big exception: American workers’ price-adjusted take- home hourly pay.

Indeed, by every relevant measure, these real wages during Mr. Trump’s first 27 months as President have been rising at a pace slower than that during his predecessor Barack Obama’s final 27 months in office. Ditto for manufacturing workers, whose fortunes have been such a Trump focus.

And the comparison flatters Obama even when the data for blue-collar workers – generally the lowest paid members of the American workforce – are stripped out, although in absolute terms the Trump-era performance here has been somewhat better.

Here are the percentage changes through May. (In the lingo of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks these numbers, blue-collar workers are “production and non-supervisory workers.”  And as usual, public sector workers are excluded because their pay levels are overwhelmingly determined by politicians’ decisions, and thus say little about the fundamentals of the economy or the job market.)

                                     m/m        y/y   1^st 27 Trump months  last 27 Obama months

private sector:            +0.18     +1.30              +2.06                         +3.00

manufacturing:          +0.28     +0.46               -0.09                         +2.96

private production:    +0.32     +1.73              +2.29                         +3.27

mfg production:        +0.23     +1.03              +2.08                          +2.73

These results continue to be especially surprising given overall unemployment rates that have been at multi-decade lows – which should be forcing wages up, as employers find themselves forced to offer higher pay in order to compete for increasingly scarce workers. And although, as I’ve written, it’s possible that manufacturers in particular have held the line on wages because they’re not able to find workers with anything close to the skills they need, I wonder how understanding such workers will be about this explanation when it comes time to vote for President in 2020.

At the same time, here’s what’s not open to debate: Despite the plunge in the unemployment rate, other measures – notably the Employment-Population ratio and the Labor Force Participation Rate – show that there’s plenty of slack left in the U.S. labor market. If politicians and business leaders really want to see real wages rise healthily again, they’ll need to figure out how to lure able-bodied Americans still on the sidelines back to work.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Real Wages are Still Far from Great Again – Especially in Manufacturing

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election 2020, inflation adjusted wages, manufacturing, private sector, real wages, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

No doubt about it – this week’s government report on U.S. real wages was a dog. (No offense to canine lovers – of which I’m one!) And the news, as usually the case, was particularly bad for manufacturing workers, as their inflation-adjusted hourly pay in March dipped back into technical recession territory. That is, their real wages are down on net since January, 2016 – a much longer time-span than the two straight quarters of cumulative growth contraction that comprise most economists’ definition of a recession.

Manufacturing’s real wage recession returned thanks largely to a sizable 0.65 percent sequential drop between February and March. That was the worst such deterioration since November, 2011’s 0.95 percent. The only consolation for manufacturing workers – the decrease followed a 0.56 percent monthly improvement in February. That was the best such performance since August, 2015’s 0.57 percent.

But underscoring manufacturing’s real wage problems was the March year-on-year decline. It was only 0.09 percent. And the rate of decrease was slower than that between the previous Marches – 0.46 percent. All told, however, such price-adjusted hourly compensation in industry is now down by that 0.09 percent figure for more than three years.

Moreover, manufacturing’s real wage performance remains much worse than for the private sector as a whole. (These after-inflation wage analyses omit the numbers for public sector workers’ because their pay largely reflect politicians’ decisions, not the workings of free market forces. In fact, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles and publishes these figures, doesn’t even track real wages for government employees.)

Private sector workers overall didn’t enjoy a great hourly pay month in March, either. Their constant dollar wages fell sequentially by 0.27 percent – the first such decline since October’s 0.09 percent, and the biggest since February, 2013’s 0.49 percent. Moreover, the private sector’s monthly wage performance can’t be explained by good February numbers – since that month they were only up by a so-so 0.18 percent.

Yet private sector real wages in March were 1.21 percent higher than in the previous March, which continued a solid run for this indicator. And the new March year-on-year figure was considerably better than that between the previous Marches – 0.47 percent.

The manufacturing-private sector real wage comparison looks even worse when their changes during the course of the current recovery are examined. Since mid-2009, after-inflation private sector hourly wages are up 5.72 percent. That’s hardly gangbusters. But it’s a pace more than ten times faster than that for manufacturing – a barely detectable 0.47 percent.

More discouraging for the manufacturing sector: That gap has been widening. From the onset of the current recovery through March, 2018 overall real private sector wages had risen about 7.8 times faster than real manufacturing wages. Through this past March, the exact size of that growth difference was 12.2 times faster.

I’m still convinced that at least some of manufacturing’s relatively bad recent real wage performance (despite strongly growing payrolls) stems from the unusually low quality of workers the sector has needed to attract lately. But as the next presidential election approaches, what I think matters even less than usual, at least politically. The big question is whether the manufacturing workers who turned out for President Trump will be satisfied with this explanation.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: More Historically Bad Wage News for U.S. Manufacturing Workers

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inflation adjusted wages, Labor Department, manufacturing, private sector, real wages, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

This morning’s real wage data from the Labor Department contained a double dose of bad news for American workers – and in one case, historically bad news.

Just as with a main finding from the pre-inflation wage data released earlier this month along with the monthly Labor Department jobs report, today’s after-inflation figures showed that hourly wages for manufacturing workers fell behind those of private sector workers in general for the first time – at least on a preliminary basis – on record. (These figures for each category of workers were first released in March, 2006).

To achieve this result, price-adjusted hourly pay for private sector workers in July stayed unchanged month-on-month (at $10.76), while such pay for manufacturing workers dipped by 0.09 percent (to $10.75). Price-adjusted wages for the two groups of workers first converged in May at $10.75.

When the initial set of these real wage figures was released more than twelve years ago, constant dollar manufacturing wages exceeded constant dollar overall private sector wages by 3.19 percent.

The new Labor Department data also showed that technical real wage recessions (periods of cumulative decline lasting for two consecutive quarters or more) for both groups of workers continued through July.

In manufacturing, inflation-adjusted wages are down on net by 0.19 percent since January, 2016 – a period of more than two-and-one-half years. In the private sector generally, the real wage recession became one year old, as after-inflation hourly pay is now down 0.19 percent on net since last July.

Manufacturing’s real wage woes were also made clear in its latest year-on-year figures. Since last July, such pay is down 1.56 percent – the worst such annual performance since October, 2012’s 2.09 percent plunge. Between the previous Julys, industry’s real wages grew by 0.65 percent.

In the private sector overall, the newly reported July annual real wage decline of 0.19 percent also contrasts with its own 0.65 percent advance the year before.

During the current economic recovery, which began in mid-2009, real private sector wages are up 4.36 percent. But in the private sector, they’ve improved by only 0.28 percent during this more than nine-year stretch – less than one-fifteenth as fast.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Wage Inflation Warnings Just Got a Lot Funnier – Unless You’re a Worker

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inflation, inflation adjusted wages, manufacturing, private sector, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s U.S. real wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics kept mocking the claims that the United States is teetering on the edge of a dangerous round of wage inflation. In fact, the statistics show that in February, real wage recessions (periods of two quarters of more when after-inflation hourly pay has dropped on net) actually continued.

The month-to-month January-February flat-line in inflation-adjusted private sector wages means that this form of compensation is down cumulatively by 0.28 percent since last May. Worse, January’s 0.19 percent sequential decrease was revised down to a 0.28 percent drop.

In manufacturing, after-inflation wages as of February were 0.19 percent lower than they were in January, 2016. Month-on-month in February, they dipped by 0.09 percent. At least January’s sequential decline of 0.46 percent was revised up – to a 0.37 percent decrease.

Since the onset of the current economic recovery, more than eight years ago, real private sector wages have improved by only 3.98 percent. But that performance is more than ten times better than that of manufacturing, where this pay has grown by only 0.28 percent during that period.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Trump & Workers, by the Numbers

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blue-collar workers, construction, healthcare services, Helaine Olen, inflation adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, mining, real private sector, real wages, regulation, Steven Greenhouse, subsidized private sector, The Nation, The New York Times, Trump, unions, wages, workers, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Since Donald Trump first declared his presidential candidacy, he’s been dogged by charges that he’s a phony populist, and that his working class supporters have long been hoodwinked by his promises of restoring factory and other blue collar jobs and living standards. And this past Labor Day inspired the President’s critics to double down, as evinced by this piece by long-time labor reporter Steven Greenhouse in The New York Times and this one by economist Helaine Olen in The Nation.

So it seems appropriate for RealityChek‘s slightly delayed analysis of the latest monthly jobs report to include some data bearing on these questions. The verdict? Whatever anti-union and deregulatory measures the Trump administration has backed, its first months in office overall have been just about as good for blue-collar industries and blue-collar employees as during the latest comparable period during the supposedly worker-friendly Obama administration.

First, the manufacturing highlights of last Friday’s August jobs report:

>August saw the best month of net new job creation in U.S. industry since August, 2014 (36,000 in each month.

>Although the August and July totals are still preliminary, their combined sequential employment increase of 62,000 was the highest such figure since the 68,000 improvement in December, 2011 and January, 2012. This back-to-back total reduces the odds that the August numbers are a fluke.

>On a year-on-year basis, manufacturing’s August gain of 138,000 contrasts strikingly with the 5,000 net job loss in industry between the previous Augusts. In fact, this new annual advance was manufacturing’s strongest since the 139,000 yearly gain in August, 2015.

>Reenforcing this conclusion are the strong upward revisions for monthly manufacturing job growth in June (from an upwardly revised 12,000 to 21,000) and for July (from 16,000 to 26,000)

>Manufacturing has now regained 1.027 million (44.79 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost from the onset of the last recession (at the end of 2007) through its jobs bottom in February and March, 2010.

>Yet manufacturing employment is still down 9.21 percent since the downturn’s beginning. During that period, overall private sector employment is up by 7.23 percent.

>Manufacturing’s wage performance, however, slumped notably in August. Pre-inflation wages sank sequentially by 0.56 percent – the worst such drop since May, 2012’s 0.63 percent.

>It’s true that manufacturing wages have been volatile this year, with July recording a strong month-on-month gain of 0.53 percent. But the yearly August manufacturing wage rise of 1.76 percent not only trailed the previous August-to-August rise of 2.68 percent. It was also the smallest annual increase since July, 2015’s 1.57 percent.

>By contrast, August current dollar wages in the private sector overall were up by 0.11 percent sequentially and 2.53 percent year-on-year. The latter total was just slightly below the 2.55 percent increase achieved between August, 2015 and August, 2016.

>Since the current recovery began, in mid-2009, pre-inflation manufacturing wages have risen by only 15.25 percent total. For the private sector overall, they’ve increased by 19.20 percent.

>As a result, the gap between private sector pre-inflation wage increases and those gains in manufacturing stood at 20.57 percent in August. One encouraging development for manufacturing workers: Last August, the gap was much wider: 27.92 percent.

>On an after-inflation basis, manufacturing’s wage performance remains mixed compared with the rest of the private sector. The latest data are from July, and show a monthly gain of 0.37 percent for manufacturing workers and 0.19 percent for the private sector overall – barely half as much.

>Year-on-year, however, manufacturing’s real wage gains slightly lagged those of the private sector in toto in July – 0.74 percent versus 0.75 percent.

>And the gap is even wider during the current recovery – inflation-adjusted wage gains of only 1.96 percent for manufacturing workers during this more than eight-year period, versus an improvement of 4.75 percent for the entire private sector.

But what about the Trump-Obama comparison? Here are the main numbers, using February as the first plausible month of “Trump-onomics”:

>From this past February through August, total net new U.S. job creation is up by 0.66 percent, versus 0.83 percent from last February through last August – the final such period during Mr. Obama’s presidency. So score one for the previous administration? Maybe. But the economy is also deeper into the recovery, and just about at the official definition of full employment. So it’s natural that job-creation should slow down some.

>Interestingly, the difference is much smaller when looking at private sector job creation. Last February through last August, it grew by 0.84 percent. During the comparable Trump period, it’s increased by 0.79 percent. That’s one sign that the Trump employment performance has been healthier, and therefore more sustainable, because it’s been more private-sector driven, than the late Obama version.

>This difference becomes even more pronounced when looking at trends in the subsidized private sector – those industries traditionally considered private sector (notably healthcare) that nonetheless depend heavily on government subsidies. Hence my decision to place them in a separate category.

>So far this year, under President Trump, subsidized private sector jobs have indeed increased strongly – by 0.95 percent. But that’s a much slower rate of growth than the 1.29 percent recorded during the comparable Obama months.

>As a result, employment growth in the “real” private sector has been faster under Mr. Trump – by 0.76 percent to 0.74 percent – and this, again, despite the arrival of full employment.

>Continuing sector by sector, the statistics show that the some of the biggest employment gains during President Trump’s tenure have taken place in blue-collar heavy industries that performed poorly during the comparable final Obama period.

>Principally, net employment from this past February through August is up by 0.83 percent in manufacturing, by 4.96 percent in mining and logging, and by 0.68 percent in construction.

>The comparable Obama administration numbers: -0.27 percent, -6.90 percent, and +0.63 percent, respectively.

>More broadly, blue-collar employment throughout the entire economy (defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as production and non-supervisory workers) has increased at the same pace during the two time periods in question (0.70 percent), though in absolute numbers, the Trump administration gains are a bit larger (714,000) than the corresponding Obama administration advances (701,000) – again, despite the arrival or near-arrival of full employment.

>Where blue-collar workers fared better so far during the Obama period than during the Trump period is on the wage front. But they haven’t fared massively better.

>For all private sector production and non-supervisory workers, pre-inflation wages were up by 1.36 percent during those Obama months, and 1.19 percent during the Trump months.

>The same trends have been visible in the blue-collar industries. During the Obama months in 2016, current-dollar wages rose by 1.78 percent in manufacturing, 0.82 percent in mining and logging, and 2.60 percent in construction.

>The Trump results? 1.26 percent, 0.87 percent, and 1.98 percent, respectively.

>In other words, the only blue-collar sector in which blue-collar workers have outperformed under President Trump has been in the mining sector – which has seen by far the biggest employment outperformance.

Of course, the Trump administration is still pretty young, and any or all of these trends could change, and change dramatically, in the months ahead. But until they do, it’s clear that Mr. Trump’s presidency has neither devastated the workers who supported him so ardently or made their lives Great Again. And any analysts denying that the truth so far lies somewhere in between – including the administration’s own grandstanders – have some explaining to do.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing’s Out of its (Short Term) Jobs and Wages Doldrums

Tags

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

American domestic manufacturing created 16,000 net new jobs in July on month, its best such performance since February’s 22,000. Coupled with a major (11,000) upward revision for June, the figures demonstrated that U.S. industry has for now emerged from a springtime slump. On an annual basis, manufacturing’s July 66,000 employment improvement was its strongest since February, 2016’s 69,000.

But since the current recovery began, private net job creation has topped manufacturing’s by a factor of nearly 2.5. The same story characterized pre-inflation manufacturing wages. In July, they improved sequentially faster than the private sector’s (0.53 percent to 0.34 percent) but lagged year-on-year (2.42 percent to 2.53 percent) and trailed the previous Julys’ 3.13 percent. And during the current recovery, the private sector’s current dollar wages have increased nearly 20 percent faster than manufacturing’s, although the gap has narrowed year-on-year. But despite its good last two months, manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment remained at a record low of 8.47 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (July) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>U.S. domestic manufacturing net new job creation and wage gains both accelerated sequentially in July, pulling the sector out of a sluggish spring on both fronts.

>Industry’s monthly July jobs gain of 16,000 was its best such performance by far since the 22,000 payrolls improvement in February. Moreover, June’s initially reported 1,000 employment increase is is now judged to have been more than ten times greater (12,000).

>Fiurther, the July figures showed that manufacturing payrolls swelled by 66,000 year-on-year in July – the best annual gains since February, 2016’s 69,000.

>Monthly pre-inflation manufacturing wages growth picked up notably as well in July, from an upwardly revised 0.19 percent in June to 0.53 percent. In May, manufacturing paychecks actually fell on a current dollar basis – by an upwardly revised 0.26 percent.

>Manufacturing’s June sequential pre-inflation wage gains equaled those of the overall private sector, and beat the private sector’s 0.34 percent performance in July.

>Over the longer term, however, manufacturing lagged the overall private sector in both respects, although the paycheck gap has been narrowing slightly recently.

>During the current economic recovery, which began in mid-2009, manufacturing employment is now up by 5.96 percent. Private sector jobs as a whole are up by 14.58 percent during this period.

>Since the late-2007 onset of the last recession, manufacturing’s performance is equally poor. From that time to the early 2010 troughs, manufacturing lost 2.293 million jobs and private sector payrolls shrank by 8.801 million.

>Since then, manufacturing has regained just 42.39 percent of those lost jobs (a total of 972,000). The private sector as a whole has boosted employment by 17 million.

>As a result, total private sector employment is now 7.08 percent higher than at the recession’s late-2007 onset, but manufacturing employment is still 9.61 percent lower.

>Therefore, it’s no surprise that manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment in July stayed stuck at its all-time low level of 8.47 percent.

>Wage trends reveal the same manufacturing relative weakness. Industry’s July annual current dollar wage gains of 2.42 percent were lower than the overall private sector’s 2.53 percent. They were also much lower than the 3.13 percent increase recorded for manufacturing during the previous Julys.

>Manufacturing wages before inflation have fared little better during the recovery. As of July, they were up by 15.99 percent since the economy resumed expanding in mid-2009. But overall private sector wage increased by 19.06 percent – 19.20 percent faster.

>Last July, though, the gap was bigger – 23.24 percent.

>Manufacturing generally performs even worse on an inflation-adjusted basis. The latest figures are for June, and show a sequential manufacturing gain of 0.18 percent versus a 0.28 percent read for the private sector overall.

>Year-on-year, real manufacturing wages have risen by only 0.55 percent. That’s both slower than the private sector’s 0.94 percent and manufacturing’s own 2.46 percent constant dollar rise between July, 2015 and July, 2016.

>During the entire recovery, overall private sector real wages are up 4.56 percent as of June – 2.87 times faster than the manufacturing real wage improvement (1.59 percent).

>As bad as that comparison looks, it’s actually narrower than the gap last year – when overall private sector wages had increased 3.48 times faster after inflation than manufacturing wages.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite Strength in February, Manufacturing’s Jobs Recession Continued

Tags

BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

February’s preliminary U.S. manufacturing jobs figures showed that the sector boosted payrolls by 28,000 – its best performance since the same total for January, 2016, but that its jobs recession continued, with employment down on net since that month. Manufacturing wage growth, moreover, showed some weakness, as average hourly pay improved by just 0.04 percent on month (lagging the overall private sector) and the yearly improvement of 2.89 percent was mediocre by the last few months’ standards.

The positive manufacturing jobs revisions for December and January brightened former President Obama’s record for employment creation in the sector, but the increase still fell short of his stated second term goal of creating one million new positions in industry by 625,000.

Despite the good February monthly advance – plus the sector’s first annual employment increase (7,000) since last July – manufacturing jobs as a share of the non-farm total hit a new record low of 8.49 percent. Nor did the February results change manufacturing’s status as an American employment and wages laggard. Since the mid-2009 onset of the current economic recovery, industry employment is up only 5.59 percent, versus the 11.28 percent for the nation as a whole, and pre-inflation wages have risen by 14.51 percent versus the 17.84 percent rise for the entire private sector.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (February) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>The first full (though preliminary) monthly tally of President Trump’s manufacturing job creation record showed that even a strong February – which saw industry’s payrolls grow by 28,000 on net – wasn’t enough to pull the sector out of its latest jobs recession.

>Although the February results were manufacturing’s best since January, 2016’s (which were identical), the sector’s employment is still below that month’s total by 5,000 on net.

>In addition, manufacturing wages displayed signs of weakness in February. Their pre-inflation sequential increase of 0.04 percent trailed that of the overall private sector (0.23 percent) for the second straight month.

>Year-on-year, however, manufacturing’s wage performance looks better. Hourly pay rose by 2.89 percent versus the 2.80 percent figure for the private sector. Manufacturing held the edge in January, too, but the gap was wider (2.89 percent versus 2.60 percent).

>The new Labor Department release also showed that former President Obama’s record as a manufacturing jobs creator was somewhat better than previously reported. Net new manufacturing jobs still rose much less (a total of 375,000) than the one million goal he set for his second term. But positive revisions for January and February boosted manufacturing positions by 13,000 during those years.

>The last three months’ totals also did nothing to halt the historic slide in manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment. In February, this figure hit a new record low of 8.49 percent.

>On the brighter side, the February yearly manufacturing jobs increase of 7,000 was the first such advance since the 7,000 annual growth last July.  Nonetheless, it compared poorly with the 69,000 year-on-year gain reported for the previous Februarys.  

>Even so, manufacturing remains a jobs and wages laggard during the current economic recovery. Since the economy returned to expansion mode in June, 2009, industry employment is up by only 5.59 percent – less than half the 11.28 percent advance recorded by the private sector as a whole.

>Since its 2010 employment bottom, manufacturing has now regained 929,000 (40.51 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 16.217 million.

>Moreover, whereas total private sector employment is now 6.41 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, in late 2007, manufacturing employment is still 9.92 percent lower.

>On the wage front, pre-inflation manufacturing pay has risen by 14.51 percent during this recovery – again slower than the 17.84 percent for the entire private sector.

>Adjusting for inflation, manufacturing’s wage performance looks much worse. The latest figures only cover January, but they show that real hourly pay in the sector is up only 0.65 percent since the recovery began in mid-2009 – more than seven years ago. Real wages in the private sector overall are up 3.39 percent.