• About

RealityChek

~ So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time….

Tag Archives: John Carney

Making News: Back on National Radio to Look Over that US-China Trade Truce…& More!

03 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Breitbart.com, China, Gordon G. Chang, John Carney, Making News, Thaddeus McCotter, The John Batchelor Show, Trade, trade war, Trump

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to return to John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show tonight to analyze President Trump’s new trade deal with China. The segment, slated to start at 9:45 PM EST, will also feature co-host Gordon G. Chang and former Michigan Republican Congressman Thaddeus McCotter.

Click this link to listen live on-line to what’s sure to be a timely update on an agreement that in effect establishes a three-month truce in the trade war the two giant economies have been fighting recently.

In addition, it was great to be quoted yesterday by Breitbart.com‘s John Carney in this post summarizing some reactions to the new U.S.-China trade truce.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: New National Radio Podcast on Tariffs and China Trade Now On-Line…& More!

17 Saturday Nov 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Breitbart News Tonight, Breitbart.com, China, Federal Reserve, industrial production, IndustryToday.com, Jobs, John Carney, Making News, manufacturing, tariffs, Trade, tradewars, Trump, wages

Once again I got a sort-of-last-minute request last night from Breitbart News Tonight to appear on that radio show.  But thanks to the invention of the podcast, you can listen to the interview on-line.  So click here (the segment with my name on it is right near the top), for a great discussion about how President Trump’s tariffs are (and aren’t) impacting the American economy and its manufacturing sector, and about whether a truce in the U.S.-China trade war is in the offing.

In addition, it was great to be quoted yesterday on the trade implications of the latest Federal Reserve industrial production data by Breitbart‘s John Carney – the only other analyst I’ve seen who has consistently been reporting on the message being sent by official U.S economic data on the tariffs’ actual impact on the U.S. economy.

Finally, IndustryToday.com this last week re-published two recent RealityChek posts – on how supposedly tariff-vulnerable metals-using industries generally have been claiming even more job openings than the rest of the manufacturing sector; and on a possible big new reason why manufacturing wages have lagged so far beyond job creation.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Jobs Update – & the Wage Mystery Solved?

12 Monday Nov 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in (What's Left of) Our Economy

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Breitbart.com, illegal immigrants, Jobs, John Carney, manufacturing, offshoring, Trade, training, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

All the commotion surrounding last week’s midterms elections – and their continuing aftermath in places like Florida – make it all too easy to overlook the details of the latest U.S. government report on the country’s employment situation. These most recent results are worth examining because the dominant trends of the last few months – encouraging job creation and discouraging wage numbers – have remain so persistent that it may be time to consider a new explanation that I, anyway, have been skeptical of for months.

First, the data.

Domestic manufacturers created 32,000 net new jobs in on month in October – the biggest sequential increase since last December (39,000). Indeed, employment gains have been so healthy lately year that manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment (the U.S. government’s jobs universe) hit its highest level (8.537 percent) since August, 2016 (8.533 percent).

Year-on-year, as of October, manufacturing payrolls grew by 296,000 – a pace nearly double that achieved between the previous Octobers (152,000). Further, that yearly increase was the second best since February, 1998 (311,000). And the very best annual performance since February, 1998 came in July (300,000).

As a result, American industry has now regained 1.332 million of the 2.293 million jobs it lost from the late-2007 beginning of the last recession through its latest employment bottom (in February and March, 2010). That is, 58.09 percent of those lost jobs are back.

Not that manufacturing employment doesn’t have a long way to go, especially compared with the rest of the private sector. It’s still 6.99 percent below those recession onset levels – whereas overall private sector payrolls are 9.75 percent greater. And since its own last employment bottom (February, 2010), the private sector has regained 20.103 million of the 8.785 million it had lost during the worst of the downturn – an increase that’s nearly four times as great as manufacturing’s. But it’s tough to deny that industry’s hiring performance is on the way up.

But manufacturing’s wage picture keeps looking completely different. October pre-inflation wages growth…wasn’t. Hourly pay was the same as in September. The private sector’s October monthly wage gain wasn’t terrific either. In fact, at 0.18 percent, it was the lowest since February’s 0.11 percent. But it still left manufacturing in the dust.

The annual increases make manufacturing’s wage laggard status even more obvious. At 1.46 percent, it was below that between the previous Octobers (1.67 percent), and the worst such figure since July’s 1.31 percent.

By contrast, private sector current-dollar annual wage growth in October was 3.14 percent. That was not only considerably faster than the October, 2016-October, 2017 increase (2.28 percent). It was the best such performance since April, 2009 (3.37 percent), in the midst of the recession.

Further, the widening of the private sector-manufacturing pay gap continues. From the mid-2009 beginning of the current recovery (in economic growth, if not employment, terms) through last October, pre-inflation private sector wages had increased 21.71 percent faster than their manufacturing counterparts. As of this October, the difference was 30.05 percent.

In absolute terms, since the recovery began, private sector wages are up 23.31 percent, versus only 17.77 percent for manufacturing.

Actually, it’s not just sluggish manufacturing wage growth amid strong job creation during this economic expansion that’s puzzled economists. It’s been a mystery for the entire private sector. But one explanation for manufacturing’s poor performance is starting to win me over, at least in part, and a clue comes from that robust year-on-year rise in manufacturing pay during deeply recessionary April, 2009.

At that time, of course, manufacturers were shedding jobs like mad. So why was pay going up? According to many manufacturing executives I spoke with at the time explained, they were letting go of their least experienced (and worst paid) workers – therefore, wages per worker seemed to be rising even though those workers’ paychecks themselves weren’t actually growing. Better paid workers had simply become a greater share of manufacturing’s total.

As explained to me by John Carney, the economics and finance editor over at Breitbart.com, something like the inverse may be taking place now: manufacturing companies have had to reach so deeply into the potential labor pool to fill positions that they’ve needed to hire many employees with subpar levels of skills and education, and who therefore aren’t very productive. As a result, they’re not performing productively enough to justify rising pay.

I’m still not convinced that poor worker quality is the only answer for relatively poor and stagnating manufacturing pay. For one, the threat of job offshoring has by no means vanished, as demonstrated vividly by the Carrier export of jobs to Mexico that then President-elect Trump promised to deal with in 2016. And manufacturers still hire lots of illegal aliens, especially in sectors like meat packing and processing, which undoubtedly dampen wage growth as well. Nor is it clear to me that manufacturers have started spending enough time and money training new workers, as opposed to expecting someone or something else (mainly, the schools) to do the job for them.

But I’ve also heard directly – and consistently – from manufacturers how difficult it remains to find even minimally qualified applicants to fill positions, and I can’t reasonably dismiss all or even most of these claims. So the one conclusion I can confidently reach is that following the manufacturing jobs and wages figures has become more important than ever for serious students of the U.S. economy.

Making News: Economic Hits During a Political Week

10 Saturday Nov 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

agriculture, Breitbart.com, Cleveland Plain Dealer, John Carney, Making News, manufacturing, midterms 2018, Ohio

I’m pleased to announce two recent economics-focused media hits that were especially gratifying given the (understandable) dominance of political news last week.

The first came in the Cleveland Plain Dealer, which quoted me in a terrific investigative piece on the stunningly different stories of manufacturing strength and overall prosperity in two different counties in Ohio.  The article has also been syndicated in smaller papers all across the state.

The second came on Breitbart.com.  Its economics editor, John Carney, cited my post on the midterm elections and results in the trade-dependent U.S. farm belt in a same-day (November 7) article on the same subject.  OK, so this piece was kind of political.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: On Israeli TV Tonight Talking Trump Tariffs…& More!

14 Friday Sep 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Breitbart.com, economy, i24News, inflation, John Carney, Making News, tariffs, Trade, Trump, wholesale prices

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to make my debut on Israel’s i24News tonight! The segment, slated to air at 7:49 PM EST, will cover President Trump’s trade policies, and you can watch on-line at this link. As usual, if you can’t tune in, I’ll post a link to the streaming video as soon as one’s available.

Also, my analysis earlier this week of new data on American wholesale prices and what they’re telling us about the Trump tariffs was quoted by John Carney in this Breitbart.com analysis.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Where’s the (Trump Tariff-Created) Consumer Price Inflation?

03 Monday Sep 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in (What's Left of) Our Economy

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Best Buy, Breitbart.com, canned goods, consumers, inflation, John Carney, tariffs, Trade, Trump, U.S. International Trade Commission, washing machines, Wilbur Ross, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Have you been shopping for any Labor Day bargains this weekend? If not, you might check out the deals on washing machines. Or just wait a little longer and you could save even more money.

Why on earth am I giving out this kind of consumer advice? Because in recent months, data pointing to soaring prices for these appliances were repeatedly touted as proof that the kinds of tariffs slapped on these goods early in the year – and representative of the trade policy approach generally favored by President Trump – would backfire on American consumers and seriously weaken the consumption-driven U.S. economy.

The tariffs on large residential washing machines went into effect in January, when President Trump approved a recommendation from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC)– an independent federal agency – to use such measures to counter a surge of these appliances that threatened the viability of domestic producers. (In this way, they did not result from trade diplomacy being conducted by the administration aimed at reworking existing trade deals like the North American Free Agreement or allegedly lopsided relationships like U.S.-China trade.)

But although prices for these appliances have shot up, advertising for dishwashers that’s appeared this weekend indicates that more powerful countervailing economic trends – trends that, incidentally, have hardly been secrets – will quickly begin bringing them back to earth. Specifically, as I’ve noted, despite moving into its tenth year, the current American economic recovery has been too weak, wages and incomes have been too stagnant, and consumers have been too cautious to permit such prices to stick for any serious length of time.

As a result, I wasn’t at all surprised to see Best Buy, a pretty typical appliance retailer, offer the following specials:

>A Whirlpool model marked down from $474.99 to $349.99. (More than 25 percent off.) Whirlpool, incidentally, was the plaintiff in the USITC trade law case that resulted in the tariffs;

>A KitchenAid machine being discounted by nearly 18 percent from its $1,034.99 list price – on top of free installation;

>Two Samsung washers being offered for more than 18 percent less than their $674.99 list price.

>An LG model on sale for $749.99 – nearly 17 percent below its $899.99 list prices.

And P.S. All these offers entail a price match guarantee, as well as “open box” versions of these products that can be had for much, much less.

And don’t think for a minute that washing machines are the only tariff-ed product for which price predictions are looking awfully Chicken Little-ish. Right after President Trump made his initial announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was widely ridiculed for going onto CNBC and using cans of soup as props to argue that the levies would only marginally impact the prices of these goods. Moreover, canned goods producers strongly disagreed.

Yet as reported last week by Breitbart.com‘s John Carney, the latest official inflation figures show that, as of July, the prices of a variety of canned goods – from soup to fruit – have actually fallen year-on-year. Canned beer and vegetables did get more expensive, but by a mere 1.40 percent – much less so than the overall 2.40 percent rate of inflation. And the prices of other metals-using products, like cars and trucks and auto parts, were up just fractionally at best.

I’ve noted previously that there are any number of valid arguments that can be raised against the Trump trade policies. And no one has a perfectly clear crystal ball. But with the predicted effects on employment, output, investment, and now consumer prices so far not coming close to panning out, it’s now clear that the tariff opponents are rapidly running out of arguments.

Making News: Hits on Breitbart.com, in The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette…& More!

14 Tuesday Aug 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Apple Inc., Breitbart.com, China, Gordon Chang, Jobs, John Carney, Len Boselovic, Making News, manufacturing, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, The Daily Beast, The John Batchelor Show, Trade, trade wars, wages

Time to summarize some recent media appearances!

Yesterday, in a post on a new New York Federal Reserve study on U.S. trade flows, John Carney of Breitbart.com cited my own analysis of this bizarre report. Here’s the link.

Also yesterday, Len Boselovic’s Pittsburgh Post-Gazette analysis of the latest developments in manufacturing wages cited my findings about how hourly pay in industry has lost its leadership status in the U.S. economy.

On Saturday, August 11, TheDailyBeast.com ran Gordon Chang’s latest article on U.S.-China trade relations, which quoted me on the possibility of new pressure on Apple, Inc. from the Chinese government.

Finally, on July 30, I made a short-notice appearance on John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show to discuss the latest developments in the U.S.’ trade confrontation with China. Here’s a link to the podcast of the segment, which experienced some technical difficulties because John was calling in from Azerbaijian!

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

 

Making News: “Jersey Joe” Piscopo Podcast…& More!

08 Sunday Jul 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

AM 970 The Answer, Breitbart News Tonight, Breitbart.com, China, Gordon G. Chang, John Carney, Making News, technology, The Joe Piscopo Show, The National Interest, Trade

With the continuing onrush of trade and foreign policy news, it’s getting tough to announce some upcoming media appearances (especially when the opportunities arise on short notice) and to post links to podcasts as quickly as I’d like.  So here’s a catch-up column.

On Friday, July 6, it was a genuine thrill to appear on the talk radio show hosted by former Saturday Night Live cast member “Jersey Joe” Piscopo on New York City’s AM 970.  Click on this link to listen to a great conversation on President Trump’s trade policies and how they’re likely to turn out for the American economy and the global economy.  The link should take you to the start of my segment.

That same day, Breitbart.com‘s John Carney cited my finding that, contrary to the expectations of trade and globalization cheerleaders, the new U.S. jobs report showed that, despite the Trump steel and aluminum tariffs, employment has been rising at the metals-using industries that were supposed to be crippled by these moves.  Here’s the link.

On July 2, I was interviewed on “Breitbart News Tonight” on Sirius XM Patriot radio on the Trump trade policies.  You can listen to the podcast at this link.

On June 28, Gordon G. Chang quoted my views on recent U.S. efforts to curb China’s access to advanced American defense-related technology in this post for The National Interest.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: New Podcast on Globalization, Breitbart Cite – & More!

24 Thursday Aug 2017

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

agriculture, America Trends, Breitbart.com, globalization, IndustryToday, Jobs, John Carney, Larry Rifkin, Lifezette.com, Making News, manufacturing, NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement, Rust Belt, Trade, Trump

I’m pleased to announce some new media appearances this week.

First, here’s a link to a long interview on trade, globalization, the U.S. economy – and, of course, the Trump effect – I gave to Larry Rifkin’s America Trends podcast.  It’s nearly an hour, but I hope lots of you will stick with it for at least a while, because Larry is one of the best interviewers I’ve run across in my decades of experience with the media.

Second, IndustryToday, which I’ll shortly start writing for as a regular columnist, has reposted my RealityChek post documenting what a failure the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has been for American agriculture – despite endless claims to the contrary.  Here’s the link.

Third, on Tuesday, John Carney of Breitbart.com (yes, the one and only) quoted my views in a post he put up on the news that a Chinese entity is thinking of buying the prized Jeep division of Fiat Chrysler.  You can read it at this link.

Finally, Lifezette.com featured my views and manufacturing jobs data in this Monday post on what voters in Rust Belt swing states think of President Trump’s performance so far.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Newer posts →

Blogs I Follow

  • Current Thoughts on Trade
  • Protecting U.S. Workers
  • Marc to Market
  • Alastair Winter
  • Smaulgld
  • Reclaim the American Dream
  • Mickey Kaus
  • David Stockman's Contra Corner
  • Washington Decoded
  • Upon Closer inspection
  • Keep America At Work
  • Sober Look
  • Credit Writedowns
  • GubbmintCheese
  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS
  • New Economic Populist
  • George Magnus

(What’s Left Of) Our Economy

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Our So-Called Foreign Policy

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Im-Politic

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Signs of the Apocalypse

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

The Brighter Side

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Those Stubborn Facts

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

The Snide World of Sports

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Guest Posts

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Current Thoughts on Trade

Terence P. Stewart

Protecting U.S. Workers

Marc to Market

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Alastair Winter

Chief Economist at Daniel Stewart & Co - Trying to make sense of Global Markets, Macroeconomics & Politics

Smaulgld

Real Estate + Economics + Gold + Silver

Reclaim the American Dream

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Mickey Kaus

Kausfiles

David Stockman's Contra Corner

Washington Decoded

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Upon Closer inspection

Keep America At Work

Sober Look

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Credit Writedowns

Finance, Economics and Markets

GubbmintCheese

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

New Economic Populist

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

George Magnus

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy