(What’s Left of) Our Economy: “Tariff Victim” US Industries Remain Full of Job Openings

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business, China, durable goods, employers, job openings, Jobs, JOLTS, labor shortages, manufacturing, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, private sector, quits, tariffs, Trade, Trump, workers, {What's Left of) Our Economy

If today’s government data on U.S. jobs openings don’t prompt loud mea culpas and apologies from the tariff-alarmists in the Mainstream Media and elsewhere in America’s globalization cheerleading establishment, I don’t know what will.

Recall that Americans have been swamped in recent months with reports that President Trump’s trade curbs have already been decimating American manufacturing.  And since they have been in place the longest, his metals tariffs (on most steel and aluminum imports) have been treated as prime examples, with metals-using industries being the prime victims.

But the new figures on job openings in major sectors of the economy (contained in the latest monthly release of the “JOLTS” numbers – the “job openings and labor turnover series”) are simply the latest statistics thoroughly debunking these claims.

Here are the results for job openings from April (because the metals tariffs began to be imposed in late March) through September (the most recent month covered by the JOLTS reports):

private sector:     +2.30 percent

manufacturing:   +7.08 percent

durable goods:   +7.47 percent

As has been the case with so much other data, the durable goods super-sector of manufacturing – the portion of industry containing the biggest metals-using industries – outperformed the rest of manufacturing and the entire economy in the number of employment opportunities it claimed were available.

And although the number of job openings in durable goods dipped from August to September (whose figures are still preliminary), they fell much less than in the rest of the economy.

private sector:     -2.85 percent

manufacturing     -4.72 percent

durable goods     -0.66 percent

Moreover, the 302,000 durable goods jobs openings reported preliminarily in September were the second largest number on record (going back to late 2000). The all-time high? August’s 304,000.

Some critics maintain that employers have incentives to exaggerate their claims of job vacancies. The motives cited include reinforcing contentions of “skills gaps” and other forms of labor shortages; rationalizing the persistence of high unemployment rates or sluggish wage growth; and pushing government or schools to take on worker training responsibilities (and expenses) that employers are loathe to assume. It’s also easy to see how exaggerated job openings claims can be used to bolster arguments for more immigration – which of course is also a tempting strategy for keeping wages down by increasing labor supply relative to demand.

But even if such exaggeration is rife, why would it be so much more important in durable goods manufacturing than in the rest of the economy? Further, why would employers have any reason to overstate the number of vacancies they’re trying to fill if they believed that their businesses were being swamped by steep, tariffs-led costs increases, or were about to? Wouldn’t they be trying to shed payroll instead? As a result, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that the JOLTS openings numbers simply add to the evidence that, despite the claims of actual or impending tariffs-mageddon, metals-using industries continue to be faring just fine.

Interestingly, workers in durable goods sectors don’t appear to share this optimism fully, according to the JOLTS data. For the figures also measure the numbers of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs – a clear sign of confidence that lots of new opportunities are available. Here are are the April-through-September results:

private sector:     +8.53 percent

manufacturing:    -2.94 percent

durable goods:     -9.48 percent

Clearly, durable goods workers have been displaying less confidence about reemployment opportunities than their counterparts in the rest of manufacturing, and much less than private sector workers overall. And these results are mirrored in the August-to-September numbers:

private sector:     -1.26 percent

manufacturing:    -6.60 percent

durable goods:   -11.76 percent

Nonetheless, in absolute terms, all these quits levels – even for durable goods – remain pretty high by recent standards. And for durables, they’re somewhat volatile, possibly because the absolute numbers have always been on the small side. Indeed, durable goods quits increased by 6.19 percent month-to-month as recently as July. And the August-to-September drop-off was the biggest sequential decline in percentage terms since the 15.70 percent monthly nosedive in August, 2017 – after which the numbers of quits steadily recovered.

As always, these trends could change (or, with the quits rate) intensify. It’s also possible that the President’s more sweeping tariffs on imports from China will be game-changers. (The first round dates only from early July, and the second, much larger round, went into effect in mid-September.) For now, however, the only real news about the economic effect of these levies is that they’ve showed no signs of slowing the recovery’s current momentum. Accept no substitutes.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Another Sign of Wage Stagnation – from the Job Turnover Numbers

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Employment, Great Recession, Jobs, JOLTS, Labor Department, leisure and hospitality, non-farm jobs, professional and business services, recovery, retail, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Since the economy has been moving for quite a while now to full employment (at least as conventionally measured), I haven’t been monitoring the Labor Department’s data on job turnover (the “JOLTS” figures, per the acronym of its official label) as in years past. But yesterday I checked out the numbers reported yesterday morning, and see that this lapse has been shortsighted.

For the JOLTS data are still confirming that the purportedly red-hot, super-tight U.S. labor market is still under-performing according to a key measure – wages. Indeed, the new JOLTS numbers (for November) offer one important explanation: The job openings being advertised by businesses in low-wage industries are outgrowing those in better paying sectors.

The best way to show this trend is to look at the share of total non-farm jobs (the Labor Department’s U.S. employment universe) at key recent points in the business cycle that have been comprised of low-wage jobs, and compare them with the job openings figures at those times.

To remind RealityChek regulars and clue in others, my proxy for low-wage jobs consists of the retail sector, the leisure and hospitality sector, and the big low-wage portion of the professional and business services sector (e.g., janitorial services, landscaping services, call centers, bill-collection services, security services, and the like).

As of November, the hourly wages for these sectors, respectively, were (without adjusting for inflation) $18.28, $15.60, and $20.05. For the private sector as a whole, the hourly wage that month was $26.54.

When the Great Recession broke out, at the end of 2007, these parts of the economy combined represented 26.81 percent of total non-farm employment. When it ended, in the middle of 2009, this share had dropped only to 26.23 percent (by 2.16 percent) – even as overall payrolls dropped by 5.34 percent.

Since then, the low-wage share of all U.S. jobs has risen to 27.74 percent. And the JOLTS data tell the same story – especially during the ongoing recovery.

When the recession began, and low-wage jobs were 26.81 percent of total non-farm employment, they represented 31.94 percent of the job openings advertised by American employers.

During the recession, they were actually in less demand, in absolute and relative terms. In June, 2009, with low-wage jobs accounting for 26.23 percent of the total, such positions represented just 28.38 percent of total job openings. (My figure for the low-wage professional and business services positions is based on their share of jobs in that sector for the month in question. It isn’t broken out in the official JOLTS reports.)   

The results for last November (again, the latest available)? Low-wage jobs had grown as a share of total non-farm employment to 27.74 percent. But as a share of job openings, they had risen much higher – to 34.53 percent.

So because wage lag is still such a prominent feature of the American economy, I’m back on the JOLTS case. When the quality of job opportunities in the labor market starts showing sustained improvement, we’ll have grounds for believing that the long national nightmare of stagnant wages is ending.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: What “Retail-pocalypse”?

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bricks and mortar, electronic retailing, Employment, hiring, job openings, Jobs, JOLTS, on-line shopping, private sector, retail, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Could the evidence be clearer? President Trump constantly bewails job losses in parts of the economy like manufacturing and coal mining. But he’s ignoring the much larger employment bloodbath in the nation’s retail sector. Worse, the contrast shows what a racist and sexist Trump is, since minorities and women make up much larger shares of the workforce in retail than in factories and mines.

Here’s one answer: The evidence for these propositions could be a lot clearer. Indeed, according to the U.S. government’s employment statistics, it doesn’t exist.

I decided to look at the numbers because the JOLTS data for May came out this morning, and I was once again amazed at the results for retail. As known by RealityChek regulars, these data measure turnover in the labor force, and are highly regarded by no less than Fed Chair Janet Yellen – a leading labor economist. The new figures, which are still preliminary, show that American retailers claimed 638,000 job openings in their businesses, and hired 718,000 new workers (the latter data represent total positions filled, not net new hires).

It’s true that the openings numbers in particular can be dicey. But those for this past May seem pretty consistent with the data going back many years. Moreover, they show that over the last eight years (practically the length of the current economic recovery), retail openings have more than doubled, and hires are up by nearly 31 percent. Both indicators are lower than that for the private sector as a whole (where job openings are up 140.14 percent, and hires are up 45.24 percent since May, 2009). But the gap is hardly yawning. Nor is there any indication from the JOLTS data that retail openings or hires have lost major – or any – momentum in the last few years.

The actual net new job-creation numbers don’t reveal any “retail-pocalyse,” either. Since June, 2009 (when the current recovery officially began) retail payrolls have grown by nine percent. That’s slower than the increase overall private sector employment (14.39 percent). But the gap proportionately was actually greater during the previous recovery, when private sector employment rose by 5.83 percent, and the retail sector’s staffing was up by 3.18 percent.

Maybe this is because, as widely reported, jobs are migrating from bricks and mortars retail stores to on-line shopping businesses? Absolutely. And this trend is indeed rising in importance. During the previous recovery (which only lasted six years, from the end of 2001 through the end of 2007), electronic retail employment rose by 64 percent – just about a third as fast as during the current recovery (174.44 percent).

But in absolute terms, the electronic retail sector is hardly a mass employer. Its workforce totaled less than 260,000 as of this May. Retail overall employed just under 15.85 million that month, and during the recovery, bricks and mortars payrolls grew by a not-too-shabby 1.14 million.

At the same time, the actual employment figures do show that retail hiring is running out of steam, at least for the time being. Year-on-year, the sector boosted payrolls by just 0.12 percent. The previous two May-May annual increases? 1.37 percent between 2015 and 2016, and 1.71 percent the year before. By contrast, employment grew by 12.22 percent in electronic retailing from May, 2016 to May, 2017, and by 12.60 percent the year before. So conventional stores are now losing employees on net.

At the same time, these results are a far cry from a blood-letting. And annual job-creation in the overall private sector has been slowing as well. Further, many observers insist that bricks and mortars companies long built way too many stores. So their payrolls (and overall scale) may, at least to some extent, simply be returning to more sustainable levels. These conclusions obviously won’t satisfy the Trump-haters among us. They’re simply consistent with the facts.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: JOLTS of Confusing News About the U.S. Jobs Market

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government jobs, job openings, JOLTS, Labor Department, labor shortage, living standards, manufacturing, private sector, productivity, recovery, retail, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Since the U.S. economy has settled at its current level of near-full employment (at least by the official figures), the monthly JOLTS reports issued by the Labor Department have been attracting much less attention – including from me! After all, with so many Americans working, it’s been less important (though not totally unimportant) to learn about one of the key findings in each such survey of labor market turnover – how many new job opportunities business and government say they’ve been creating. 

So it’s not surprising that today’s JOLTS report (for April) hasn’t had much impact on the financial markets this morning. But it still contained more than its share of noteworthy results that reinforce what we think we already know about the economy’s current biggest problems, and that raise major questions about other portions of the conventional wisdom.

The overall job openings number, for example, was quite the stunner: At 6.044 million, it was an all-time high in absolute terms. (The JOLTS series dates from December, 2000.) And the 4.48 percent increase over May’s 5.785 million level represented the biggest monthly jump since last July’s 7.91 percent.

Openings in the private sector hit a new record in April, too (5.464 million). And that 4.20 percent monthly rise was the great sequential increase since last July (8.46 percent).

But as RealityChek regulars know, the economy’s growth has been sluggish even by the meager standards of the current economic recovery. In the first quarter of this year, real growth came in at a paltry 1.15 percent annual rate. So the JOLTS figures indicate that employers feel they need record numbers of new employees even though as a group their output is historically lousy.

That adds up to more evidence that American business boosting its productivity only sluggishly at best – which is awful news given that productivity growth is the nation’s best hope for improving living standards in a sustainable, not bubble-ized, way. And as I’ll be reporting on shortly, the latest government labor productivity numbers once more confirm that the economy is stuck in a productivity crisis.

Yet these JOLTS results carry more complicated implications for another broadly accepted feature of the American economy. They support the idea that U.S. businesses are struggling to overcome almost unprecedented labor shortages. How else to explain the enormous number of reported job openings? But companies that desperate to find workers should be raising wages at rapid and indeed accelerating rates. Everything that we know about hourly pay, though, tells us that nothing of the kind is happening. If anything, wage growth, which has underwhelmed throughout the current recovery, is showing signs of slowing.

One other new record revealed by today’s JOLTS report – total government job openings (540,000) have never been higher except in April, 2010, when the call went out for temporary Census workers. Even more interesting, most of the openings were in state and local governments outside the schools.

Also somewhat surprising: The “retail-pocalypse” so commonly bemoaned or hailed (depending on your viewpoint) is nowhere to be seen in this JOLTS report. Sure, retail job openings fell between March and April from 593,000 to 577,000. Moreover, that’s the lowest level since December, 2015, and the numbers now are generally, though unevenly, trending down. But for the first more than seven years of this nearly eight-year old recovery, they were trending solidly up. With overall economic growth down and consumers still cautious, the reported retail openings numbers are far from screaming “disaster!” – or even “serious trouble!”

Finally, although manufacturing output has been modestly recovering lately from its most recent recession, its job openings fell from 404,000 in March (the second highest record and best since January, 2001’a 496,000) to 359,000 in April. Still, the decline followed a major increase in March (from 364,000), and the manufacturing numbers have been pretty volatile for more than two years.

Maybe the safest conclusion to draw from the JOLTS numbers is that, for now, the economy is heading for more of the same. Whether that’s the safest result for incumbent American politicians is another matter entirely.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Murky Jobs Signals from the New JOLTS Report

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BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, healthcare services, Janet Yellen, Jobs, JOLTS, recovery, subsidized private sector, turnover, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Economy-watchers just got another reminder today of how difficult it remains to figure out how healthy the current recovery is – from the data on employment turnover released by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The biggest surprise they delivered concerned the numbers of job openings reported (preliminarily) for February in the economy’s subsidized private sector.

Whereas the last few months of BLS data indicate that hiring in industries like healthcare services (which are heavily dependent on government support) hasn’t been quite so outsized as over the last decade, the new job turnover numbers (commonly known by their acronym JOLTS) suggest that they’re still punching above their weight.

If you think – as you should – that the real private sector should flat-out dominate job creation because it’s the economy’s leader in productivity and innovation, that’s not such a great development.

For the first three months of this year, the subsidized private sector accounted for 18.57 percent of the 533,000 total net new jobs America created. During the first three months of last year, this figure was 21.26 percent. These numbers will be revised several times more, but so far they signal that subsidized private sector jobs gains have lost some of their relative steam. (For more on the robust hiring in these industries during the current recovery, see this recent post.)

But the job turnover data appear to be sending the opposite message. Here we only have statistics going through February, and they’ll be revised down the road, too. But for the first two months of this year, 19.38 percent of the 11.368 million total job openings have come in the subsidized private sector. For the first two months of 2016, that figure was only 17.76 percent. In fact, the 1.138 million job openings estimated in the subsidized in February were the highest monthly total ever in absolute terms. (This data series started in 2000.)

To be sure, the subsidized private sector’s share of total job openings this year is a little below the levels that have held for most of the recovery. (See this post for more detail.) But its year-on-year rise is tough to square with the relative decline in actual job creation.

Another noteworthy result found in today’s job turnover report: The decline of retail job opportunities comes through plain as day. It’s not that the sector, whose bricks-and-mortars segment is under such tremendous pressure from on-line shopping, isn’t reporting any job openings at all. In fact, at 541,000 in February (on a preliminary basis), they were on the low end but still respectable by the standards of the last few years.

Look at the year-on-yer change, however, and you can see the retail employment problem. Reported job openings during January and February combined were down nearly ten percent. Those kinds of drops haven’t been seen since early in the recovery, in 2010.

These employment-related developments stand in especially stark contrast to the Federal Reserve’s apparent conclusion that the economy is just about fully recovered, and that the central bank’s new priority is sustaining “what we have achieved,” as chair Janet Yellen declared yesterday. This approach of course entails continuing to raise interest rates gradually, and reducing the immense amount of bonds the Fed bought as part of its stimulus program. Here’s hoping that the Fed’s confidence more accurately reflects the true state of the economy than these latest figures.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Data Showing the Labor Market Still Needs Some (Positive) JOLTS

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Jobs, JOLTS, Labor Department, labor market, Obama, recession, recovery, Trump, turnover, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Although today’s government statistics on turnover among American workers lag reality by two months, they’re still worth looking at because they fill in more crucial details about the state of the U.S. employment scene as the Obama years draw to a close, and how it’s changed. And the main message sent by these so-called JOLTS numbers? Despite some very recent improvement, the country’s job market still features historically high levels of (a) private sector jobs and job openings that shouldn’t really be described as private sector, and (b) jobs in low-wage parts of the economy.

According to these new figures from Labor Department, American employers said their companies had openings for 5.522 million workers in November. (These numbers are still preliminary.) Of these, fully 20.28 percent could be found in what I call the economy’s subsidized private sector – industries where levels of activity, and therefore employment, depend heavily on government funding. (Health-care services is the leading example.) Openings in the “real” private sector – where activity is driven largely by market forces, and therefore more accurately reflects the economy’s underlying strengths or weaknesses, amounted to 69.76 percent of the total.

These results are better than those for November, 2015. A statistical year ago, that subsidized private sector comprised 21.41 percent of 5.198 million total reported job openings. And only 69.49 percent of such opportunities were reported for the real private sector. Moreover, these improvements have slowly been emerging over the last year.

The nation has also seen progress on this front going back to the start of the current economic recovery, in mid-2009. That June, subsidized private sector job openings stood at 22.28 percent of all reported openings, and their real private sector counterparts came in at just 64.25 percent.

Yet it’s also clear that the American job market hasn’t returned to normal levels – at least if “normal” is defined as its state on the eve of the Great Recession, at the end of 2007. Back then, the subsidized private sector generated only 18.31 percent of all reported job openings, and the real private sector’s share was 71.74 percent.

Somewhat more discouraging trends can be seen in the economy’s low-wage sectors – notably retail; leisure and hospitality; and the poorly paying portions of the overall high-wage professional and business services sector. (My figures for the latter are extrapolations based on their share of actual professional and business services employment, because they’re not explicitly reported in the JOLTS statistics.)

Job openings in these low-wage industries represented 32.58 percent of all openings in November, the Labor Department reported this morning. As with subsidized private sector openings, this share has been slowly trending down in recent months, and certainly from November, 2015 levels (33.49 percent).

But when the current economic recovery began, in mid-2009, the low-wage sectors produced only 28.38 percent of all job openings. And when the last recession began, in late 2007, their share was 31.94 percent – still smaller the most recent results.

It’s now more than seven years since this recovery began. Will a President Trump be able to give it the jolt it needs and that so many American voters clearly want? Keep watching the JOLTS reports for valuable insights into the emerging answer.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Away from Election Spotlight, Troubling Jobs Market Signs

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Federal Reserve, interest rates, Jobs, JOLTS, labor market, subsidized private sector, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The failure of Wednesday’s monthly Labor Department reading on job turnover (for August) to attract much attention amid presidential campaign scandals is as understandable as it’s unfortunate. For this last set of “JOLTS” numbers that we’ll get before election day continues showing levels of openings in low-wage sectors hovering near recent highs recorded during this recovery. And the more generally humdrum nature of the findings – total openings fell sequentially to an eight-month low of 5.443 million – could cast a little more doubt over the chances of the Federal Reserve viewing the economy and labor market as strong enough to justify another interest rate hike.

These low-wage portions of the economy consist of the retail sector, leisure and hospitality industries, and the big low-wage administrative and support services sub-sector of the larger and higher wage professional and business services category.

Add up the August openings in these industries and you come up with 32.98 percent of the total (which is still preliminary). That’s not a record for this troubled recovery – but it’s close. Further, it’s higher than July’s final 32.36 percent, which itself was revised up from 32.17 percent.

For some perspective, recall that when the Great Recession officially began, at the end of 2007, low-wage job openings made up 31.94 percent of total openings. At the recovery’s outset, in June, 2009, their share fell to 28.38 percent. So during the current expansion, this number is up more than four and a half percentage points.

The JOLTS data – which are widely thought to be especially closely followed by Fed chair Janet Yellen – also shed light on the prominence of the subsidized private sector in the recovery’s jobs landscape. These are parts of the economy that are placed into the private sector category by the statisticians, but that depend heavily on government spending for their activity levels and therefore the vigor of their hiring. Healthcare services are the leading example.

In August, they accounted for 15.75 percent of all the nation’s non-farm jobs. (The Labor Department’s American employment universe.) But that month, they generated 19.20 percent of all job openings – a finding consistent with their lead role in actual employment growth during the recovery. As a result, rather than accounting for nearly 91 percent of these employment opportunities in August, the “real” private sector produced only about 71.50 percent.

When the Great Recession began at the end of 2007, subsidized private sector openings made up 17.65 percent of the total. When the recovery began in mid-2009, the figure was 22.28 percent – since at that point the national employment picture remained so bleak that the subsidized private sector was virtually the only sector showing any signs of life. And even today, the figure is two and a half percentage points higher than before the last downturn.

Needless to say, since employment issues themselves have barely been discussed in the general election campaign, it’s inconceivable that these JOLTS trends would be brought up. And needless to say, that’s a great way to ensure that the national jobs market becomes ever more dominated by depressingly unproductive industries like healthcare and by menial service positions.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: This JOLTS Report Won’t Likely Jolt the Fed

Tags

Employment, Federal Reserve, interest rates, Janet Yellen, job openings, Jobs, JOLTS, turnover, {What's Left of) Our Economy

It’s time again for the monthly JOLTS report – for July – an occasion eagerly anticipated by the economics, business, and investing worlds because these data on turnover in American employment are known to be among Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s favorite measures of the labor market’s health. As a result, they’re likely to play a big role in her decision on raising interest rates – which could come next week. This latest edition leaves one recovery-era story intact – regarding the outsized importance of low-wage jobs during this long but weak expansion). But another trend – the prominence of subsidized private sector positions – took something of a hit.

The JOLTS data track how many Americans are being hired and leaving their jobs, the reasons for the departures (voluntary or involuntary), and the numbers of job openings posted by employers each month. I focus on the openings, since they say the most about what employers are seeking, and therefore which sectors of the economy look to be the most robust,at least in terms of employment-creating power. And as known by RealityChek regulars, the share of openings accounted for by low-wage sectors has risen steadily during this recovery.

In July, low-wage businesses – in retail, leisure and hospitality, and the low-pay sub-sector of the generally high-paying professional and business services sector – were responsible for 32.91 percent of all job openings companies said they posted. That’s not a record for the recovery, but it’s not far off. (Also, it’s only preliminary.) Moreover, it’s about a full percentage point higher than the 31.90 percent final figure for June, which was downwardly revised from 31.99 percent.

For comparison’s sake, when the last recession began, in December, 2007, this figure was 31.94 percent. When the recovery began, in June, 2009, it had sunk to 28.38 percent. Maybe this partly explains why Americans are so down on the economy even though it’s officially been growing for more than seven years?

The subsidized private sector consists of those industries where levels of activity (including hiring) are determined largely by government decisions, even though they aren’t formally government-owned. Healthcare services are the leading example. Just as they’ve spearheaded job creation during the recovery, they’ve also generated a disproportionate share of jobs openings recorded by the JOLTS reports. In July, the number was 18.36 percent.

That’s not only much lower than the June figure of 19.97 percent (which was revised up from 19.90 percent). It’s nearly as low as it stood at the recession’s onset (18.31 percent). Yes, when the recovery began, subsidized private sector jobs accounted for 20.31 percent of all announced job openings. But at that time, American employment creation was still deeply recessed — to the point at which healthcare services in particular were practically the only game in town.

Since the Fed says it’s interest rate decision will be determined mainly by the economic data as it comes in, and since recent indicators for the U.S. economy have rarely been more confusing, even the central bankers may not know what they’re going to do when they meet next week. But if the above JOLTS internals shape their conclusions much, bet on yet another “Hold.”

(What’s Left of) Our Economy? New JOLTS Data Provide Little Visibility on Jobs

Tags

Employment, Federal Reserve, Great Recession, Janet Yellen, job openings, JOLTS, low-wage jobs, recovery, turnover, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

I’m not sure why the economics and investment world seems pretty uninterested in the new figures released this morning on labor turnover in the U.S. economy. After all, as RealityChek regulars know, these are among the favorite labor statistics of prominent labor economist – and Federal Reserve Chair – Janet Yellen. And she has a lot to say about how low or high interest rates will be, and therefore about how vigorous or weak the current historically feeble recovery will become. Maybe it’s the dog-days-of-August syndrome?

What I am sure of is that the level and makeup of the job openings reported in the new “JOLTS” data leave plenty of room for debate over a key question overhanging the economic progress America has made since the Great Recession: Have hiring and opportunity been too concentrated in low-income sectors?

There’s no doubting that the share of job openings recorded in today’s release in low-wage sectors* is higher (32.17 percent, for June) than it was when the recession began at the end of 2007 (31.94 percent). But it’s not that much higher. This percentage, however, is much higher than it was when the current recovery began, in the middle of 2009 (28.38 percent). So over the longer haul, the “low-wage recovery” story remains intact.

Yet does this trend show more recent signs of ending, or at least moderating? That’s what the new numbers leave so unclear. For example that 32.17 percent figure for June (which is preliminary) is much lower than May’s final 33.30 percent. But the May number was revised up from its original 32.53 percent.

The initial June figure is also much lower than that of June, 2015 (33.67 percent) or June, 2014 (32.60 percent). But the comparable May numbers don’t tell a clear story. They fell from May, 2014 to May, 2015 (33.50 percent to 32.34 percent). But then they rose to that 33.30 percent this May.

It’s a good rule of thumb when examining data that the strongest (underlying) trends are revealed by looking at the longest time periods. But it’s also true that “things change,” and that the kinds of fluctuations seen over the last two years could be signs of a top – just as they sometimes (but only sometimes) are in stock prices. For now, it seems that the firmest conclusion we can draw is that more of the real picture will be revealed by the next set of JOLTS figures, which we’ll get next month. Unless of course it isn’t!

*These sectors are retail, leisure and hospitality, and the administrative and support services subsector of the big professional and business services sector.

 

 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: No JOLTS to the Low-Wage Recovery Story

Tags

Employment, Great Recession, James Fallows, job openings, Jobs, JOLTS, manufacturing, manufacturing renaissance, recovery, The Atlantic, turnover, {What's Left of) Our Economy

One of those running-around days prevented me from commenting yesterday on the new U.S. government figures on labor force turnover. But since they’re a favorite indicator of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. and since last month’s figures contained a big surprise, the so-called JOLTS report for May is worth a close look.

First, that surprise. The April JOLTS figures (there’s a two-month time lag for this series) showed a startling 23.15 percent sequential jump in the number of job openings in manufacturing. Moreover, the 415,000 figure was the second highest of all time. The increase, which produced the second highest monthly total of all-time (JOLTS statistics only go back to 2000), convinced observer’s like The Atlantic‘s James Fallows that this long-time employment laggard was suddenly “creating too many jobs.”

As I noted last month, the number looked fishy because it contrasted with virtually everything else we’ve learned about manufacturing in recent years – along with many longstanding assumptions.

So it wasn’t entirely surprising to see that the new JOLTS report revised that April manufacturing figure down to 397,000 – still historically high, but no longer so stratospheric. Just as important, the May total (which is still preliminary), was 353,000. That’s healthy, but has been bested several times in the last decade and a half. Let’s hold off, therefore, on heralding the return of the manufacturing renaissance meme – which has never been justified in the first place.

Second, the May JOLTS figures strengthened claims – including by yours truly – that the current American economic recovery has featured entirely too much low-wage job creation. Since I last looked at this subject through the JOLTS lens, past figures have been revised. But they tell the same story, according to my methodology of taking the reported openings in the retail; and leisure and hospitality employment super-categories, and then adding a pro-rated figure I calculate for the low-paying administrative and support services sector of the generally high-paying professional and business services super-category.

When the Great Recession began, at the end of 2007, these low-wage portions of the economy accounted for 31.94 percent of all job openings. By the time the recovery began, their collective share fell to 28.38 percent. The (preliminary) level for May? It’s rebounded past the pre-recession level and climbed to 32.53 percent.

Employment figures like the JOLTS data have been strongly influencing the Federal Reserve’s decisions on whether to raise or lower interest rates – which in turn helps determine how fast and whether the economy will continue growing, at least in the near future. If the central bankers look at the above crucial JOLTS details, keep expecting the country to stay on its (incredibly) easy money course.