(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Why 2019 Was a Winner for Trump Trade Policies & America

Tags

Barack Obama, Boeing, China, GDP, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods trade deficit, tariffs, Trade, Trade Deficits, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

OK, let’s cut to the chase regarding the new U.S. trade deficit data. (We’ll analyze today’s report from the Census Bureau more comprehensively tomorrow.)

The most important result revealed by the figures – which bring the story up to December and therefore give us our first look at full-year 2019 development – isn’t that the overall U.S. trade deficit fell year-on-year last year (which alone indicates that President Trump is starting to keep one of his signature campaign promises). It isn’t that the huge annual China goods deficit cratered (by 17.62 percent, the biggest such drop on record – including Great Recession year 2009 – and indicating another promise being kept). It isn’t that the still-huge manufacturing deficit has virtually stabilized despite the safety woes of Boeing, long the generator of major trade surpluses. And it isn’t even that these trade gaps have narrowed even as the economy has continued growing acceptably (which most economists insist is practically impossible, especially for a consumer-heavy country like the United States).

Instead, the most important result is that this economic growth continued in 2019 even as that portion of the trade deficit most influenced by trade policy increased at a particularly slow rate. The obvious conclusions? Trade policy can influence the size and rate of change in the trade deficit, and that the Trump trade policies are working.

To remind, this portion of the trade deficit (which I call the Made in Washington trade deficit) sheds light on the above points because it’s the non-oil goods deficit. It’s highly trade policy sensitive because it strips out of the total trade balance numbers the services balance (because so little progress has been made in worldwide services trade liberalization) as well as the oil balance (because oil is rarely the subject of trade deals or other trade policy decisions).

The table below presents the numbers for the last three years of the Obama administration and the first three of the Trump administration – a comparison that’s apt because these time periods are right next to each other in the current (expansionary) business cycle.

Made in Washington trade deficit % change     GDP % change          ratio

2013-14:        +19.35                                                 +4.42                4.38:1

2014-15:        +21.23                                                 +3.98                5.33:1

2015-16:          +2.41                                                 +2.69                0.97:1

2016-17:          +8.05                                                 +4.30                1.87:1

2017-18:        +12.66                                                 +5.43                2.33:1

2018-19:          +1.75                                                +4.12                 0.42:1

As is obvious from the above, the Made in Washington deficit’s growth rates during the Obama years (measured in pre-inflation terms) have been considerably slower than those of the Trump years. And yet the GDP (gross domestic product) growth rates of the first three Trump years have been notably faster than those of the last three Obama years.

In other words, as made clearest by the right-hand column, which shows the ratio between the two, the link between economic growth and trade deficit growth has been weakening significantly during the Trump years. And the President’s tariff-heavy trade policies have plainly played a major role. All else equal, moreover, that means growth that’s more nationally self-sufficient (no small achievement in a still dangerous world), healthier, and therefore more sustainable.

President Trump makes way too many false or exaggerated boasts about the economy (among other subjects). But the 2019 trade data show that when it comes to trade policy, he’s entitled to considerable bragging rights.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New GDP Data Show a Trade Deficit Being Brought to Heel Under Trump

Tags

Barack Obama, GDP, gross domestic product, Made in Washington trade deficit, real GDP, real trade deficit, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The fourth quarter (and therefore full-year) 2019 U.S. economic growth statistics are now in, and they’re chock full of results showing that President Trump’s promise to strengthen the American economy in part by reducing the trade deficit is being fulfilled.

To be sure, this conclusion needs several important qualifications. Notably, today’s report on the gross domestic product (GDP) from the Commerce Department is preliminary. It’ll be revised twice in the next two months alone. Further, the trade data the report contains aren’t all shaped by government trade policy decisions alone. For the numbers include the flows of services and oil trade, which are rarely dealt with in trade agreements or similar trade-related measures.

Even so, the new figures entitle the President and his supporters to take at least a slow, or partial, victory lap.

In the first place, the pre-inflation GDP data show that the overall U.S. trade deficit did indeed fall in 2019. The annual decline wasn’t much – 0.97 percent. But it marked the first yearly decrease in this number since 2016’s 0.19 percent. And it looks even better in the proper context – i.e., seen against the backdrop of changes in the GDP themselves.

After all, trade deficits often (but not always) fall for bad reasons – specifically, a shrinkage in America’s output that slashes the economy’s demand for foreign goods and services. That, however, wasn’t the story in 2019. Although the trade gap narrowed slightly, the overall economy expanded by 4.12 percent. That’s considerably faster than in 2016, when growth was only 2.69 percent. And remember – the trade deficit decrease was faster.

When examined after factoring in inflation (the GDP numbers most closely followed by students of the economy), the results don’t endorse the Trump trade approach quite so strongly. But they’re unmistakably encouraging.

In these real terms, the trade deficit rose by 3.72 percent last year (from $920 billion to $954.2 billion). This increase, however, was the slowest annual increase since 2013 (when the gap actually shrank by 6.30 percent). Even better, real economic growth in 2019 still totaled 2.33 percent. In 2013, it was only 1.84 percent.

Those results still don’t look like great news for backers of the President’s trade policy, for they indicate that making significant progress in lowering the trade deficit was at least associated with a very sluggish economy.

Yet if you take a longer view, and recognize that longstanding trends in an economy as gigantic as America’s don’t turn around overnight, the picture looks more encouraging.

The table below shows the relationship in recent years between the annual change in after-inflation (“real”) GDP and the annual change in the real trade deficit. The year 2011 is the chosen baseline because that’s when the current economic recovery settled into a reasonably normal state following the unusually deep dive it took during the Great Recession and the not surprisingly strong rebound it enjoyed during the subsequent expansion’s early stages. Low deficit-growth-to-economic growth ratios identify years during which the constant dollar GDP was able to expand without a major widening of the trade gap, and high ratios reveal the opposite situation. (Negative ratios demonstrate an economy that grew while the trade shortfall actually shrank.)

Another way to think of the matter: When the economy grows faster than or just about as fast as the trade deficit, it’s making progress toward self-sufficiency – a goal that most economists disdain (at best), which that arguably is better for the nation than growth strongly dependent on a still-dangerous and/or slow-growing world. And when the growth of the trade deficit is compared with economic growth, it’s clear that the Trump administration has made major headway on this score.

ama years                      real GDP growth   real trade deficit growth       ratio 

10-11:                              1.55 percent               0.83 percent                 0.54:1

11-12:                              2.25 percent               0.01 percent                 0.04:1

12-13:                              1.84 percent             -6.30 percent                -3.42:1

13-14:                              2.53 percent              8.33 percent                 3.29:1

14-15:                              2.91 percent            25.01 percent                 8.59:1

15-16:                              1.64 percent              8.61 percent                5:25:1

Trump years

16-17:                             2.37 percent              8.43 percent                3.57:1

17-18:                             2.93 percent              8.26 percent               2.82:1

18-19:                             2.33 percent              3.72 percent               1.60:1

Under the Obama administration, for three years, the economy managed to grow in after-inflation terms while the after-inflation trade deficit fell overall. Unfortunately, the growth itself was unimpressive. During its last three years, GDP expanded faster (especially in 2014 and 2015). But the trade deficit rose considerably faster still. So the U.S. economy became more dependent on that dicey world.

During the three full Trump years, the economy’s growth rate has been a bit stronger than under the last three Obama years. But the growth rate of the trade deficit has been a good deal slower. And although the overall economic growth rate has slowed slightly overall between 2017 and 2019, the growth rate of the trade deficit has been more than halved.

Similar trends are apparent from examining a different measure – the real trade deficit as a share of the gross domestic product. As shown by the table below, notable progress was made during the first three Obama years below in reducing both that actual percentage, its growth rate, and the ratio between the economy’s inflation-adjusted growth and the growth of its inflation-adjusted trade shortfall as a share of GDP.

During the next three Obama years, these trends generally shifted into reverse. But although the inflation-adjusted trade deficit as a share of real GDP has continually risen during the first Trump years, its own growth rate has weakened significantly even as growth itself has remained solid and impressive compared with the growth rates of those three final Obama years.

                       real trade deficit/GDP   real GDP   real trade deficit      ratio   

Obama years

2011:                   3.59 percent          1.55 percent     -1.10 percent     -0.71:1

2012:                   3.51 percent          2.25 percent     -2.23 percent     -0.99:1

2013:                   3.23 percent          1.84 percent     -7.98 percent     -4.34:1

2014:                   3.41 percent          2.53 percent      5.57 percent      2.20:1

2015:                   4.15 percent          2.91 percent    21.70 percent      7.46:1

2016:                   4.43 percent          1.64 percent      6.75 percent      4.12:1

Trump years

2017:                  4.69 percent          2.37 percent      5.87 percent      2.48:1

2018:                  4.94 percent          2.93 percent      5.33 percent      1.82:1

2019:                  5.00 percent          2.33 percent      1.21 percent      0.52:1

Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait a few days to judge how the Trump administration has performed in terms of loosening the link between economic growth and that portion of the trade deficit most directly affected by trade policy. I call it the Made in Washington trade deficit, and as stated above, it consists of the total deficit minus trade in services and oil. Here’s how those figures luck (including the inflation-adjusted Made in Washington deficit).

Obama years        real GDP       real Made in Washington deficit      ratio 

10-11:                1.55 percent                 11.92 percent                      7.69:1

11-12:                2.25 percent                 10.23 percent                      4.55:1

12-13:                1.84 percent                   6.15 percent                      3.34:1

13-14:                2.53 percent                 15.85 percent                      6.26:1

14-15:               2.91 percent                  22.70 percent                     7.80:1

15-16:               1.64 percent                    2.54 percent                     1.55:1

Trump years

16-17:              2.37 percent                    6.64 percent                     2.80:1

17-18:              2.93 percent                  13.15 percent                     4.49:1

18-19:              2.33 percent                    4.54 percent*                   1.95:1

*November-to-November

It’s evident from here that the portion of the trade deficit most directly affected by trade policy has grown much slower during the Trump years than during the Obama years, even though Trump growth on average has been somewhat stronger. In fact, during the only two Obama years in which that Made in Washington trade deficit increased nearly as slowly as during any of the Trump years (2013 and 2016) were years in which that growth was weak (less than two percent). Annual economic growth during the Trump years has never sunk to that level, or even close.

So no one should imagine that, even by its own standards, the Trump administration has made nearly enough progress in either reducing the trade deficit, or increasing the economy’s self-sufficiency. But although the numbers themselves say nothing about the value or dangers of greater self-reliance, they make clear that it’s happening, and that much of the progress has taken place where trade policy matters most.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Data Show Continued U.S.-China Decoupling & Broad Trade Performance Improvement

Tags

aircraft, Boeing, China, decoupling, exports, goods trade, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, merchandise trade, tariffs, Trade, trade war, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

With all the China trade war headlines in the news lately, the release this morning of the latest (for October) monthly U.S. trade data couldn’t be timelier. Indeed, one of the biggest takeaways from the results is that, as has been the case since the conflict began, the decoupling of the American and Chinese economies continues apace.

A second big takeaway: Boeing aircraft’s safety woes remain a major drag on domestic U.S. manufacturing’s trade performance and hence overall production (currently in mild recession) – and one having nothing to do with President Trump’s tariffs or foreign retaliation. 

And a third important conclusion:  Aside from the China trade account, the new report shows considerable improvement in some of the most important trade deficits run by the economy for decades.

One measure if decoupling is the humongous merchandise trade deficit the United States has run with China for so long. As of October, it’s down 14.60 percent year-to-date – even though the U.S. economy keeps growing. And in that vein, America’s overall non-oil goods trade deficit (the best global proxy for U.S.-China trade) rose by 4.04 percent during the same period.

The same trends are visible on the individual export and import sides, too. From January through October of this year, U.S. goods exports to China accounted for 7.13 percent of America’s worldwide total. For the comparable period last year, that figure was 8.22 percent. The analogous merchandise import figures were 19.78 percent and 23.28 percent.

Other highlights of the new monthly trade report:

>The combined goods and services trade deficit fell 7.63 percent sequentially in October, from a downwardly adjusted $51.10 billion to $47.20 billion. The October total is the lowest since May, 2018’s $44.35 billion. And the monthly drop was the biggest since January’s 12.61 percent.

>The downgrade of the September overall trade deficit was an unusually large 2.57 percent.

>The combined goods and services trade deficit is now running just 1.35 percent ahead of last year’s level. That’s a much slower rate of increase than the 13.89 percent rise between the two previous January-through-October periods.

>The overall trade deficit’s slower year-to-date increase was mainly the result of a dramatic decrease in the U.S. petroleum trade deficit – from $46.97 billion in the first ten months of 2018 to $13.93 billion between January and October of this year. That 70.34 percent nosedive contrasts with the aforementioned 4.04 percent increase in America’s non-oil goods trade deficit.

>At the same time, this “Made in Washington trade deficit” (so called because oil and services trade have little to do with the terms of U.S. trade agreements and other trade policy decisions) has been rising at a considerably slower pace this year (the aforementioned 4.04 percent rate) compared with last – when the January-through-October increase was 12.74 percent.

>Total U.S. exports dipped by 0.21 percent in October, from $207.55 billion to 207.12 billion – their lowest level since April’s $206.87 billion.

>Total U.S. exports are down 0.04 percent year-to-date – compared with a 7.45 percent rise between the preceding January-through-October period.

>”Made in Washington” exports are down 1.35 percent year-to-date, with October’s monthly $119.96 billion total the lowest since October, 2017’s $118.19 billion. Between the first ten months of 2017 and the first ten months of 2018, they grew by 5.98 percent.

>”Made in Washington” imports are up 0.55 percent year-to-date, with October’s monthly $187.54 billion total the lowest since November, 2017’s $186.99 billion. Between the first ten months of 2017 and the first ten months of 2018, they climbed by a much faster 8.26 percent.

>The also chronic and huge U.S. manufacturing trade deficit rose by 5.45 percent between September and October – from $87.91 billion to $92.70 billion. The increase followed two straight sequential declines.

>Manufactures exports in October improved by 5.03 percent, from $91.84 billion to $96.45 billion. But the much larger amount of manufactures imports increased by a faster 5.23 percent, from $179.75 billion to $189.15 billion.

>Year-to-date, the manufacturing trade deficit is up 2.76 percent, from $847.21 billion to $870.62 billion. That’s a much slower rate of increase than the 11.26 percent rise between January-through-October, 2017 and the same 2018 period.

>Interestingly, the safety woes of longtime manufacturing export superstar didn’t weigh heavily on the industry’s latest trade figures. Exports of civilian aircraft actually edged up sequentially in October – from $3.29 billion to $3.33 billion. Imports rose more, from $1.35 to $1.60 billion, but the result contributed only $210 million to the $4.79 billion monthly rise in the total manufacturing trade deficit.

>Longer term, though, it’s a much different story. For the first ten months of this year, civilian aircraft exports have decreased from $46.03 billion to $37.21 billion. Import, however, are up from $10.06 billion to 12.16 billion.

>As a result, the civilian aircraft trade surplus is down on a year-to-date basis from $35.97 billion to $27.15 billion. And this $8.82 billion drop-off represents 37.68 percent of the $23.41 billion worsening of the overall manufacturing trade balance so far from 2018 to 2019. Moreover, it’s a far cry from the days when the civilian aircraft sector was strengthening the U.S. manufacturing trade balance.

It’s true that when examining the improvement of trade performance on an absolute or relative basis, the economy’s growth rate has to be taken into account. In this vein, though, the rates of improvement are all significantly faster than the slowdown being experienced by the wider economy. That development doesn’t lend itself to pithy headlines (or catchy campaign slogans). But by any reasonable standard, it’s solid progress.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New U.S. Trade Figures Reflect More Policy Noise, but Reveal More Underlying Improvement

Tags

China, exports, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods deficit, tariffs, Trade, Trade Deficits, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

As with last month’s numbers, this morning’s U.S. trade figures need to be taken with a big grain (or boulder?) of salt due to President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff decisions with major foreign economies like Mexico and especially China. The big takeaway, IMO: These May data show that the portion of the nation’s trade deficit most affected by trade policy decisions is still growing much more slowly this year than it did last year – even though the pace of overall U.S. economic growth looks to be just slightly weaker. And that’s clearly good news if you share my belief that humongous and ballooning trade deficits are bad news for the economy.

Specifically, I’m talking about the non-oil goods trade deficit – the shortfall which strips out oil (which is rarely dealt with by trade policymakers anywhere) and services (where liberalization remains in its infancy). 

On a monthly basis, this trade gap (which I like to call the Made in Washington trade deficit) jumped by 3.02 percent in May – the biggest such rise since last December’s 9.07 percent, when importers were “front-running” – that is, scrambling to bring in foreign product ahead of threatened and imminent tariffs. And its $70.85 billion level was the highest since December’s $78.06 billion.

But for the first five months of this year, this deficit is up just 6.76 percent – much less than the 11.14 percent increase registered between January and May last year. And although the second quarter’s economic growth figures aren’t yet in, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first half of this year seems set to expand at a rate that’s eminently respectable compared with last year’s first half.

In addition, the May figures show that the United States continues making progress in reducing its chronic and huge goods trade deficit with China – a major Trump goal.

As with the non-oil goods deficit overall, the U.S. merchandise shortfall with China grew sequentially in May – by 12.24 percent. The increase was the biggest in percentage terms since the 20.64 percent monthly surge last May, during the tariffs front-running period.

U.S. goods exports to the People’s Republic were up fully 14.92 percent on month in May – their best such performance since February’s 18.21 percent improvement. Yet the much larger amount of goods imports from China shot up by 12.85 percent – the biggest such increase since last May’s 14.78 percent.

Interestingly, though, given the seasonal factors that shape so much trade with China, this month’s May U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China was the lowest May total since 2016 – when overall American growth was much slower.

On the manufacturing trade front, another major Trump priority, the longstanding and huge monthly deficit climbed by 6.08 percent sequentially in May – from $86.78 billion to $92.06 billion. The May level is also the highest since January’s $89.13 billion.

On month, May manufacturing exports advanced by 5.30 percent, from $92.62 billion to $97.53 billion. But the much larger amount of imports increased by 5.67 percent, from $179.41 billion to $189.59 billion.

These new figures brought the year-to-date manufacturing trade deficit up to $416.23 billion in May – 5.28 percent higher than last year’s comparable total ($395.36 billion). Manufactures exports are actually down 1.93 percent this year so far while imports are up 1.33 percent.

Overall, the combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit widened by 8.39 percent on month in May – from an upwardly revised $51.22 billion to $55.52 billion. The May level was the highest and the sequential rise were both the highest since December ($60.81 billion and 13.35 percent, respectively).

On a January-May basis, the total trade deficit has worsened by 6.38 percent – a somewhat slower rate than the previous year’s 7.70 percent.

Total exports in May increased by 2.05 percent – their biggest such increase since last May’s 2.13 percent. But this improvement followed April’s 2.37 percent sequential decline – the worst such performance since January, 2016’s 2.66 percent.

Total imports, though, soared by 3.31 percent sequentially in May – from $257.64 billion to $266.16 billion. That total is the third highest ever (after last October’s $266.82 billion and last December’s $266.47 billion – during the tariffs front-running period). The monthly increase was the biggest since March, 2015’s 6.69 percent. But it also followed s big April monthly fall-off – 2.16 percent, the greatest since January’s 2.40 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Through the Policy Noise, More Evidence of Trade Progress Under Trump

Tags

China, exports, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, real non-oil goods trade deficit, tariffs, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s new monthly U.S. trade figures (for April) from the U.S. Census Bureau come at an awkward time statistically speaking. As must be obvious, they predate President Trump’s latest escalation trade war escalations. They’ve been shaped significantly by the safety-related problems at the Boeing Co., long a major American export standout, which may or may not be solved relatively quickly. To make matters more complicated, they incorporate revisions – some of which go back to 2014.

All the same, the trade report contained some data worth noting.

Regarding the macro numbers, the combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit shrank by 2.15 percent on month in April, from an upwardly revised $51.91 billion to $50.79 billion. That’s the second lowest monthly total of this still-young year and, more important, the second lowest total (after February’s $50.03 billion) since June, 2018’s $47.43 billion.

And, in an unusual (literal) footnote, March’s figure was revised up by a substantial 3.81 percent.

Total U.S. exports fell by 2.16 percent on month in April, to $206.85 billion. That’s the biggest percentage sequential decrease since January, 2015’s 2.66 percent. And the April total was the lowest since last December’s $205.66 billion.

Total American imports, though, fell at the same 2.16 percent rate – but the decline was only the fastest since January’s 2.40 percent. The $257.64 billion total import figure was the nation’s lowest since April, 2018’s $257.10 billion.

Year-to-date, the overall trade deficit is 2.02 percent higher than in 2018, although overall economic growth is a little slower.

As known by RealityChek regulars, more insights on how Mr. Trump’s trade policies can be gleaned from examining the “Made in Washington trade deficit” – comprised of U.S. trade flows strongly influenced by trade policy decisions. Such figures strip out oil trade, which is rarely dealt with by trade policy makers, and trade services, where liberalization has still made only modest progress worldwide.

In inflation-adjusted terms (the figures that are used to help calculate overall American economic growth or contraction), this non-oil goods deficit dipped by 0.14 percent month-to-month in April. More revealing, so far in 2019 it’s up 6.13 percent. That sounds like an indictment of the Trump trade record.

But 2018’s comparable figure was 12.71 percent. So even though the economy’s growth changed little, the growth rate of the Made in Washington trade deficit plunged by more than 50 percent – unmistakably good news for anyone wanting the economy to rely less for growth on borrowing and consuming, and more on saving and producing.

The U.S. goods trade shortfall with China shot up 29.66 percent on month in April – which looks like a setback for the President’s trade policy. The more so since the jump was the biggest since the 37.01 percent surge of March, 2015.

All the same, this increase followed the biggest two-month plunge in this trade deficit (39.80 percent) since October-December, 2001 (39.87 percent). In addition, despite the tariff policy gyrations on both sides, the impact of seasonal factors on U.S.-China goods trade can still be detected, as bilateral commerce tends to wane temporarily after big Christmas holiday-related buildups.

Moreover, the China goods deficit through the first four months of 2019 is down 9.88% from the comparable 2018 period – even though the overall goods deficit year-to-date is up 0.33%.

The April widening of the China goods gap was led by a 24.27 percent monthly nosedive in American goods sales to the People’s Republic. This biggest such drop since January, 2018’s 27.35 percent surely represents one sign of the Boeing effect. Although country-specific data aren’t yet available, overall civilian aircraft overseas sales plummeted by 46.89 percent sequentially in April (or just under $2.30 billion in absolute terms).

Goods imports from China rose on month for the first time in six months – by 11.62 percent, to $34.80 billion. This increase was the biggest since May, 2018’s 14.78 percent, by which time tariffs front-running was clearly underway.

The Boeing effect can also be seen in the April manufacturing trade figures. The monthly deficit – which due to trade war factors has been volatile lately – increased sequentially by 12.76 percent, from $76.96 billion to $86.78 billion.

Exports slumped by 9.81 percent month-to-month – or $10.07 billion – with nearly a quarter of the decline due to aircraft.

The much larger amount of manufactures imports was down, too, sequentially in April, but by only 0.14 percent.

Year-to-date, the manufacturing trade deficit stands at $324.17 billion – 4.11 percent higher than the comparable 2018 figure. January-through-April exports are 1.18 percent lower than in the first four months of last year, while imports are 1.21 percent higher.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Trade Data Confirm that U.S. Growth Keeps Getting Healthier Under Trump

Tags

GDP, gross domestic product, Made in Washington trade deficit, non-oil goods trade deficit, real GDP, real growth, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

This morning’s monthly U.S. trade figures (for March) enable an update for the economic impact of President Trump’s tariff-centric trade policies – and contain very good news both for Mr. Trump and for anyone hoping that the nation’s growth becomes healthier (which should be all Americans).

The major test, as RealityChek regulars know, is a comparison between the economy’s overall growth on the one hand, and the growth of the trade shortfall most heavily influenced by trade policies. The latter can be termed the “Made in Washington trade deficit,” since it strips out oil (which is rarely the object of trade deals or trade policy decisions) and services (where trade liberalization has made only limited progress).

If the economy is growing faster than this non-oil goods deficit (in inflation-adjusted terms – the gauge most closely followed by economy watchers), or if its growth rate is still slower but the gap between these rates is narrowing, that means that its expansion is at least starting to stem more from domestic production, and less from import-led (and therefore debt-financed) consumption. If the trends are showing the opposite results, then overall growth is becoming still more heavily reliant on credit-financed shopping (whether by households, businesses, governments or some combination of these).

And in case you forgot, that’s the kind of growth that led directly to the last global financial crisis and the worst American recession since the Great Depression. And even though the economy began recovering a decade ago, its expansion consistently trailed the growth rate of the Made in Washington trade deficit – and never more than when the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product was increasing most robustly.

That’s why the new U.S. trade figures are so encouraging. They confirm that the American economy recently has been able to grow impressively without supercharged Made in Washington trade deficits. In fact, that’s way understating the case. For calculations based on the March trade results show that, during the first quarter of this year, the after-inflation Made in Washington trade deficit actually shrunk sequentially (by a 6.09 percent annual rate) while real gross domestic product increased by a healthy 3.13 percent annualized.

Nor was the first quarter a fluke – at least not under the Trump administration. In the second quarter of 2018, the real Made in Washington trade shortfall sank sequentially by 5.90 percent annualized, while the overall economy surged by a price-adjusted 4.10 percent.

And an examination of the two during the current economic recovery produces an unmistakable pattern, which is best illustrated by looking at the far-right column (think of it as the multiple) of the table below: During the Trump years so far, good growth has resulted despite relatively modest increases (and, as we’ve just seen, despite some absolute declines) in the Made in Washington trade deficit. During the Obama years, Trump-like growth was only achieved when the Made in Washington trade deficit practically exploded. And when that trade deficit grew weakly, so did the gross domestic product.

Further, even though the multiple rose between the first and second years of the Trump administration, the quarterly 2018 figures show that this problem stemmed from the tariff front-running of the third quarter – when U.S. importers were scrambling to bring in products from abroad before they were hit with levies, principally on goods from China. Once this period of distortion ended, the multiple fell significantly (and probably overshot in the first quarter of this year).

Real Made in Washington trade deficit        Real GDP         Ratio of first to second

1Q 2019:              -6.09 percent                   3.13 percent                 -1.95:1

4Q 2018:               6.41 percent                   2.15 percent                  2.98:1

3Q 2018:             11.66 percent                   3.31 percent                  3.52:1

2Q 2018:             -5.90 percent                    4.10 percent                -1.44:1

1Q 2018:              1.35 percent                    2.20 percent                 0.61:1

2018:                  12.74 percent                    2.86 percent                 4.45:1

2017:                    6.75 percent                    2.22 percent                 3.04:1

2016:                    2.66 percent                    1.57 percent                 1.69:1

2015:                  22.63 percent                    2.88 percent                 7.86:1

2014:                  15.88 percent                    2.45 percent                 6.48:1

2013:                    6.15 percent                    1.84 percent                 3.34:1

2012:                 10.23 percent                     2.25 percent                 4.57:1

2011:                 11.92 percent                     1.55 percent                 7.69:1

2010:                30.71 percent                      2.56 percent              12.00:1

Another way to compare the Obama and Trump years in this respect: As previously noted on RealityChek, the constant dollar 3.21 percent GDP growth registered between the first quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 was the best such four-quarter growth stretch since the second quarter of 2014 and the second quarter of 2015 (when real growth was 3.37 percent).

Yet during that Obama high growth period, the real Made in Washington trade deficit shot up by 18.83 percent. During the Trump high growth period, this trade shortfall rose by only 4.99 percent.

The higher and broader tariffs on China threatened by the President to press Beijing in the current trade talks would represent the biggest test yet of the Trump policies’ impact on the health of America’s growth. But the March trade figures are the latest evidence that so far, they’ve passed such tests with flying colors.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The Latest Sign of Trump Success on Trade

Tags

exports, GDP, gross domestic product, imports, inflation-adjusted growth, Made in Washington trade deficit, non-oil goods trade deficit, real exports, real GDP, real growth, real imports, real non-oil goods trade deficit, real trade deficit, tariffs, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

It’s still not possible to say confidently that the impact of tariff-related distortions are over (at least for the foreseeable future), and that President Trump’s trade policies are once again enabling the U.S. economy to grow strongly faster than its debt-producing trade deficits (i.e., more healthily and sustainably). That moment won’t arrive until May 9, when the last of the monthly trade figures for the first quarter of this year will be reported (at least in a preliminary form).

But Friday’s initial first quarter results for the gross domestic product (GDP – the main measure of the economy’s size and its growth), bring the moment a good deal closer.

Just to recap the main issue: I’ve explained on RealityChek (e.g., here) and elsewhere (e.g., here) that the real measure of Mr. Trump’s trade policy success or failure isn’t the level of U.S. trade deficits presented in isolation. It’s whether the economy can grow at adequate rates without pulling in ever more imports – which are both bought by consumers and used by producers as parts, components, and materials for their final products. Either way, though, their increases on net plunge America deeper and deeper into debt.

With anything as big as the American economy, trends don’t reverse themselves quickly. So the best evidence of change would indicate that the relevant arc is starting to bend in the right direction. In this case, that means signs that growth becomes or remains adequate as the growth of the trade deficit slows. That’s exactly the story that could be told convincingly with some of the latest releases of trade-related numbers (see, e.g., here and here), and that the new first quarter GDP results strengthened further.

First, it’s important to note that the new advance data show that, after adjusting for inflation, as of the first quarter, the U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace over a four-quarter period (3.21 percent) since the second quarter, 2014-second quarter, 2015 period (3.37 percent).

But the first sign that the new growth has been healthier growth emerges when the change in the real trade deficit is examined. During that previous, somewhat faster, growth period, the price-adjusted trade gap widened by 21.55 percent. During the last growth period, which was only slightly slower, the trade deficit actually shrank slightly – by 0.34 percent.

As known by RealityChek regulars, though, changes in the overall real trade deficit have only limited utility for judging the usefulness of American trade policy because the total flows include oil and services trade. The first is rarely the subject of trade diplomacy or policy-making, and liberalization of the latter has made only embryonic progress so far.

The portion of the trade shortfall most heavily influenced by trade policy decisions is that in non-oil goods – what I’ve called the Made in Washington trade deficit. Unfortunately, exact comparisons between the 2014-15 and 2018-19 growth periods can’t yet be made because even the preliminary results for the first quarter of this year won’t be published until the March trade data are released on May 9.

But between the second quarter of 2014 and the second quarter of 2015, the Made in Washington trade deficit jumped by 18.83 percent. Between the first two months of 2018 and the first two months of 2019, it increased by only 3.17 percent. And because of the fading of the tariff front-running effect (described in this post), it’s highly unlikely that the March and full first quarter numbers will change this arc significantly.

The improving trade deficit and its contribution to healthier economic performance also can be seen by examining the contribution made by that better balance to quarterly growth. In the first quarter of 2019, the 5.90 percent sequential shrinkage of the trade gap was responsible for 1.03 percentage points of the 3.13 percent annualized sequential growth. That’s 32.91 percent of the total – and the highest such figure since the fourth quarter of 2013, when the trade deficit’s decrease fueled 1.23 percent points of the 3.19 percent annualized sequential growth (38.56 percent).

Some other trade-related highlights of the new GDP report:

>Combined goods and services exports in the first quarter hit a new record of $2.5765 trillion at an annual rate.

>Real goods exports were up, too, quarter-to-quarter. But their $1.7598 trillion annualized first quarter total was only the second all-time highest (after the $1.8092 trillion in the second quarter of 2018).

>After-inflation services exports represented a fifth straight quarterly record ($783.2 billion annualized).

>Constant dollar total imports in the first quarter fell on-quarter but they still represented the third highest total on record – $3.4758 trillion at an annual rate.

>After-inflation goods imports also fell sequentially to their third highest all-time level – $2.9131 trillion.

>Real services imports dropped quarter-to-quarter to their second highest all-time level – $563.3 billion.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The New Data Contain More Good Trade News for Trump – & the Economy

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China, economic growth, GDP, goods trade deficit, gross domestic product, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, merchandise trade deficit, non-oil goods trade deficit, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The most reasonable conclusion to draw from today’s new U.S. trade figures (which cover February) is that, although evidence keeps growing that President Trump’s trade policies are returning to a success track, even only a fairly clearcut verdict won’t be possible until the March numbers come in.

The reason? By then, we’ll get at least the preliminary official read on the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year, and that will enable some significant light to be shed on a crucial (but almost completely ignored) measure of the Trump trade record – whether on his watch so far, the economy has been able to break or at least change the relationship between the growth of various measures of the trade deficit on the one hand, and overall economic growth on the other.

The answer matters because most economists have long insisted that an expanding economy and an improving trade balance almost never coexist. That claim is belied by the data, but the belief persists.

Further, good growth accompanied by better trade numbers would be of much more than academic interest. For the weaker the relationship between the worsening of the trade deficit and the growth of the economy, the more American growth would be stemming from domestic production, rather than domestic spending and borrowing, and vice versa.

As of the middle of last year, the economy had shown signs of notable progress along these lines. But in the last few months, as serious Trump tariffs on metals and especially on goods from China came on stream, the data started being distorted by front-running – i.e., importers rushing to procure affected goods before the levies kicked in and their prices rose.

Last month’s trade statistics contained important signs that these effects were ebbing, and the trend continued this month.  (A second distortion, however, is influencing these results – the China business slowdown that takes place each year with the arrival of the spring holiday.) All the same, January’s initially reported 14.61 percent monthly drop in the total trade gap (the biggest such decrease since March) was followed by a 3.43 percent decline in February (and from a January level that was revised down slightly). And at $49.38 billion, the overall trade shortfall was the smallest for a single month since last July’s $51.44 billion.

Meanwhile, the total two-month fall-off in the total trade gap (17.56 percent) was the biggest such decrease since March-May, 2015 (20.50 percent). And this is where we come to the main unknown: How do these instances of trade deficit shrinkage compare with the economy’s overall performance? Although Washington doesn’t track GDP on a monthly basis, it’s worth noting that from the second quarter of 2015 to the third quarter (the period roughly corresponding with that earlier trade deficit narrowing, growth on a pre-inflation annualized basis was 1.40 percent.

What about such growth during the first part of this year? That’s the figure we’ll need to wait for until later this month. At the same time, even then, an even more important question will remain unanswered for a while longer: Can the combination of an improved trade performance and continued growth last? In 2015, it was short-lived. Indeed, the current dollar U.S. economic growth rate in full-year, 2016 (2.44 percent) was less than half of the full-year, 2015 pace (5.07 percent). Unfortunately, the durability of this trend won’t be known for many more months at a minimum.

Nonetheless, there’s an even more rigorous test that the Trump trade policies need to pass – whether they can manage to maintain healthy overall economic growth while encouraging a reduction in that portion of the U.S. trade deficit that’s strongly influenced by trade policy decisions in the first place. As known by RealityChek regulars, that Made in Washington trade deficit strips out oil (because it’s almost never the subject of trade policymaking) and services (because trade liberalization of that activity remains in its infancy). On this front, signs of Trump trade progress haven’t shown up yet.

From January-February, 2017 (a period during which the Trump presidency began) to January-February, 2018, this Made in Washington deficit rose at the considerable pace of 18.47 percent. On the imperfect first-quarter-to-first-quarter basis, pre-inflation GDP was up 4.58 percent. That ratio was actually worse than during former President Barack Obama’s last year in office. Then, GDP expanded by 4.09 percent but the Made in Washington deficit actually dipped – by 0.50 percent.

As with the overall trade deficit, the Obama years sometimes witnessed strong economic growth during which the Made in Washington trade deficit worsened only moderately. For example, between the first quarters of 2011 and 2012, current dollar GDP improved by 4.80 percent and the Made in Washington trade deficit only widened by 9.80 percent. But growth slowed sharply thereafter. The January-February, 2009 to January-February, 2010 period was another time of Made in Washington trade shortfall shrinkage – by 3.13 percent. But GDP climbed by only a weak 2.27 percent.

Between January-February 2018 and January-February 2019, the Made in Washington deficit was up by a modest 2.48 percent. Can respectable growth be maintained? Tune in.

In the meantime, legitimate encouragement from the February trade figures can be drawn from the nature of the improvement. Sequential combined goods and services import growth was just 0.23 percent, while exports rose 1.13 percent – nearly five times faster.

On month, the Made in Washington deficit shrunk by 1.96 percent. That improvement combined with its 10.01 percent sequential drop in January made for the biggest such two-month decrease (11.86 percent) since that March-May period of 2015 (13.36 percent).

Good news came on the China trade front as well. February saw the biggest month-to-month reduction in the chronic, immense U.S. goods deficit with the People’s Republic (28.17 percent) since February, 2017 (36.04 percent). In addition, the resulting two-month decline in this trade gap (32.77 percent) was the biggest such figure since January-March, 2013 (36.16 percent) and the second biggest going all the way back to October-December, 2001 (39.87 percent).

An 18.21 percent surge in American merchandise exports helped (especially since it followed a 22.31 percent monthly plunge). But the 20.21 percent monthly falloff in the much greater amount of goods imports was the biggest contributor – and represented the biggest such decrease since February, 2017 as well, not to mention the second biggest since recessionary February, 2009 (23.84 percent).

February’s manufacturing trade performance was excellent as well – relatively speaking, of course, since the deficit remains enormous in absolute terms (topping $1 trillion last year).

But industry’s trade gap plummeted by 20.02 percent on month in February, as exports rose 1.85 percent and imports sank by 9.14 percent. And the gap shows signs of stabilizing on a year-on-year basis as well, as it’s up a mere 0.37 percent during the first two months of this year compared with the first two months of 2018.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Tariff-Spurred Front-Running Still Clear from New U.S. GDP Figures

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exports, GDP, gross domestic product, growth, imports, inflation-adjusted growth, Made in Washington trade deficit, real exports, real GDP, real imports, real trade deficit, recovery, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

This morning came the government’s second read on U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of this year, and the trade results were virtually identical with those of the first report – including on the short-term noise created by President Trump’s tariff-centric policies and foreign retaliation. (The final set of three – for now – third quarter figures will come out toward the end of next month.)

In other words, the new statistics confirmed that, earlier this year, both American exporters and importers had been rushing shipments of goods to each other’s markets in order to beat the tariffs at home and abroad that have been actually imposed or threatened. The biggest new wrinkle is that the resulting boost to the inflation-adjusted U.S. trade deficit, and the resulting trade bite from real growth taken by the trade shortfall’s quarterly increase, was a bit larger than previously estimated.

According to the new release, the price-adjusted U.S. trade deficit hit $945.8 billion on an annual basis the third quarter – 0.72 percent greater than the $939.0 billion reported in the first read on the quarter’s real gross domestic product (GDP). That means that record level reached by the deficit in the third quarter has climbed higher. The previous all-time annualized high for a quarterly constant dollar trade deficit was $932.5 billion, attained in the third quarter of 2006 – shortly before the financial crisis broke out.

Consequently, a conspicuous sign of trade-related front-running – the increase in the real trade deficit between the second and third quarters – grew as well. Pegged last month at 11.65 percent, this sequential rise now stands at 12.46 percent. Nonetheless, it remains only the second biggest such increase on record (behind the 13.18 percent trade deficit widening during the second quarter of 2010, during the current economic recovery’s early stages).

Another sign of front-running (re)appeared in the goods exports numbers. During the second quarter, these exports jumped sequentially by 3.21 percent sequentially on an annual basis – the biggest such increase since the fourth quarter of 2013’s 3.93 percent annualized surge.

In the initial read on third quarter GDP, after-inflation goods exports were judged to have dropped by 1.79 percent – the worst such performance since the 2.44 percent decrease in the first quarter of 2015. Largely as a result, the real third quarter trade deficit ballooned. This morning, this decrease was upgraded – to 2.09 percent. Hence the even larger constant dollar trade deficit number.

The pattern for merchandise imports was similar, though not identical. During the second quarter, they were essentially unchanged sequentially, but as of the third quarter’s initial read, they increased by 2.48 percent – the biggest such increase since the 3.37 percent of the fourth quarter, 2017.

This morning, that increase was revised up slightly, to 2.49 percent.

Because the third quarter price-adjusted trade deficit was revised slightly higher in this latest third quarter GDP report while the growth rate remained at 3.46 percent annualized, the trade bite from growth was revised higher, too. Estimated last month as a 1.78 percentage point subtraction from the overall real economic growth rate, it’s now judged to be 1.91 percentage points. The last time the trade bite was that size in absolute terms was the third quarter of 1985.

In relative terms, the trade bite from growth increased as well – from 51.44 percent of such growth to 55.20 percent. But that remained only its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2016. Then, a growing real trade deficit subtracted 1.32 percentage points from that period’s much slower 1.75 percent annualized inflation-adjusted growth rate (or 75.43 percent of such growth).

With a higher third quarter constant dollar trade deficit came a bigger trade drag on America’s real growth during the current, still far-from-robust economic recovery. As of the initial third quarter GDP report, the real trade deficit’s increase since the recovery began in mid-2009 subtracted $461.7 billion from cumulative economic growth. That was a 13.05 percent hit. This morning’s results, however, pushed up those figures to $468.5 billion – translating into a 13.24 percent hit. As of the final second quarter data, trade had sliced $363.7 billion from cumulative recovery growth, 10.77 percent of the total at that time.

Importantly, though, the growth lost due to the expansion of the price-adjusted Made in Washington trade deficit continues to be much greater. That’s the trade gap calculable from trade flows minus sectors not greatly affected by American trade policy or related decisions – that is, energy and services – and adjusted for inflation.

As of the second quarter, the widening of the Made in Washington deficit resulted in cumulative recovery-era growth being $502.92 percent less than it otherwise would have been had it not grown at all. That’s 14.89 percent less growth.

The latest third quarter figures? Foregone after-inflation growth worth $587.2 billion, or 16.60 percent less growth. Sobering numbers for an economy that’s pulled out most of the available conventional growth-promoting stops (years of super-easy monetary policy being followed by super-easy fiscal policy) with so-far mediocre and likely bubbly results

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The New U.S. Trade Figures are (Nearly) All About China

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China, exports, GDP, goods trade, gross domestic product, imports, inflation-adjusted growth, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, merchandise trade, recovery, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today was one of those days when the U.S. government treated us with both the jobs numbers (for October) and the trade numbers (for September). But just because I posted on the former first doesn’t mean that the latter were humdrum – far from it. And the big story in so many ways was China – along with an important black mark revealed when trade flows are adjusted for inflation.

Specifically, the combined American goods and services trade deficit hit $54.02 billion – just 1.33 percent higher than August’s upwardly revised $53.31 billion, but the second highest monthly total during the current economic recovery. (The highest was February’s $54.96 billion.)

And the prime culprit was the 4.34 percent sequential increase in the immense, chronic U.S. merchandise trade gap with China – to a record $40.24 billion level that represented the third straight monthly all-time high.

This growth means that as of September, this trade shortfall is running 9.91 percent ahead of last year’s annual total – $375.58 billion, which so far has been the record. Also at all-time highs as of September: American goods imports from the People’s Republic. They topped the $50 billion monthly mark for the first time, and were up by 4.32 percent sequentially – possibly because many American companies were rushing their purchases from China ahead of tariffs.

U.S. merchandise exports to China were of course much lower – $9.79 billion in September. The figure was the year’s second lowest (after August’s $9.29 billion) and might have reflected some Chinese front-running of their own government’s retaliatory levies against the United States – although September’s 5.32 percent monthly increase followed a 9.43 percent sequential drop in August.

Contrasting with these China numbers were the September goods trade results with other U.S. trade partners. Specifically, the shortfalls with the European Union, the Eurozone, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada all narrowed, and by substantial percentages. Moreover, the China-heavy American manufacturing trade deficit declined as well – by 6.13 percent (albeit from a $92.51 billion August total that was a monthly record).

Moving up to the 30,000-foot level, combined U.S. goods and services exports rose by 1.49 percent, to $212.57 billion, from an August figure of $209.46 billion that was revised upward fractionally. That September total was the third highest ever – after the May and June levels of $214.67 billion and $213.20 billion, respectively.

The much greater amount of overall imports was up 1.46 percent on month in September, with the $266.58 billion figure marking a second straight all-time high. (The previous month’s record of $262.75 billion was revised fractionally higher as well.) So some pre-tariff front-running of purchases from abroad looks like it was at work here, too.  

Some other all-time monthly highs achieved in September: services exports ($70.71 billion – a second straight record as well) and services imports ($47.50 billion).

That black mark? The Made in Washington trade deficit. This is the trade shortfall comprised of flow heavily influenced by U.S. Trade agreements and related policy decisions. As such, it leaves out oil and services – since trade in those sectors is in only a very early stage of liberalization. And adjusting it for inflation enables calculating how much trade has been either contributing to or subtracting from after-inflation growth – the measure of the gross domestic product (GDP) that’s most widely followed.

From the start of the current economic recovery, in mid-2009, through the second quarter of this year, the increase in the price-adjusted Made in Washington trade deficit subtracted 14.89 percent from the period’s cumulative real economic growth of $3.3775 trillion. That’s a trade drag of $502.92 billion.

As of the third quarter, the drag increased to 16.60 percent of cumulative recovery inflation-adjusted growth of $3.5374 trillion. That amounts to $587.23 billion worth of lost growth.