(What’s Left of) Our Economy: It’s Still the Same Old Story – No Tariff Damage to U.S. Manufacturing’s in Sight

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China tariffs, Jobs, Labor Department, Mainstream Media, manufacturing, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, tariffs, Trade, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

At this stage, despite what you read in the Mainstream Media, it would be genuinely newsy to report that official U.S. government data were indeed showing any significant damage to domestic manufacturing from the President Trump’s tariffs. Figures showing no significant damage at all from either the levies on steel and aluminum, or on products from China? They’ve become old hat, and this morning’s Labor Department report on the job market for January was no exception.

As of this January data, we now have ten months’ worth of statistics shedding lots of light on whether the metals tariffs have harmed the country’s metals-using industries. As you’ll recall, a main argument against the metals tariffs held that because the metals-using sectors were much larger, even if the levies helped steel and aluminum makers, they’d become an exercise in cutting one’s nose off to spite one’s face. For the number of workers and factories hurt by higher costs for a key material would far outnumber those helped by more expensive steel and aluminum.

Nonetheless, the January jobs report shows once again that nothing of the kind is happening. Indeed, as the table below makes clear, most of the country’s main metals-using manufacturing industries keep outperforming the rest of manufacturing. And some are creating jobs at a faster pace than the private sector overall.

And the laggards? Automotive is unmistakably gaining momentum, and household appliances are still experiencing the effects not only of metals tariffs, but of narrower tariffs on household laundry machines, and of a slumping housing sector.

                                                         Old thru Dec.    New thru Dec.     Thru Jan.

entire private sector:                       +1.37 percent    +1.36 percent    +1.60 percent

overall manufacturing:                   +1.45 percent    +1.39 percent    +1.49 percent

durable goods:                                +1.67 percent    +1.72 percent   +1.97 percent

fabricated metals products:            +1.75 percent    +1.57 percent   +1.78 percent

non-electrical machinery:              +2.20 percent     +2.33 percent   +2.57 percent

automotive vehicles & parts:         +0.77 percent     +1.07 percent   +1.15 percent

household appliances:                     not available      -2.21 percent    not available

aerospace products & parts:            not available     +5.51 percent     not available

But maybe the story is different for the China tariffs? Here the picture is fuzzier, both because the first tranche has only been in place since early July, and because the jobs data doesn’t match up that well with the categories of products tariff-ed in that first group (except for farm machinery and equipment). In addition, most of these categories are too narrow to show up in the Labor Department interactive data bases without a one-month lag. But the numbers below, which represent major manufacturing sectors that contain the tariff-ed goods, don’t show much tariff-related damage on the employment front since (and including) July.

As has been the case during this period, some industries have outperformed; others have under-performed. The resulting takeaway? Lots of factors other than China tariffs are affecting payrolls in these manufacturing segments.

                                                             July-December                     July-January

overall manufacturing                         +0.80 percent                      +0.91 percent

aircraft engines and engine parts:       +0.58 percent                       not available

industrial heating equipment:             +1.12 percent                       not available

oil and gas drilling platform parts:     +2.71 percent                       not available

farm machinery and equipment:        +0.20 percent                       not available

ball bearings:                                     +1.05 percent                       not available

But although the coverage of the Trump tariffs has stubbornly remained an exercise in gloom-mongering in the face of increasingly overwhelming evidence (here’s just one recent leading example), one reason for hope can be identified. Maybe the gulf between the trade reporting and the trade facts simply results from inherent argumentativeness and contrarianism – the kind that’s often seen in teenagers. If I’m right, the minute the tariff data becomes bad, the Mainstream Media will start serving up anecdotes about plucky exceptions to the rule.

 

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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Why Economics and Business Reporting Needs More Context, Too

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aluminum, automotive, Fiat Chrysler, Ford, General Motors, GM, journalism, metals tariffs, profits, steel, tariffs, Trade, {What's Left of) Our Economy

It’s my fervent hope that journalists and their audiences learned a valuable lesson about context from this past weekend’s firestorm about the confrontation on the National Mall between a group of mainly white Catholic high school kids on the one hand, and some Native American and African American protesters. One test of whether the need to avoid rushing to judgment based on limited information really has sunk in will be stories about the impact of President Trump’s metals tariffs on the U.S. auto industry.

So far, the coverage has stressed that the levies, which to some extent, for some period of time, raise the cost of the steel and aluminum for auto-makers, have been major headwinds for the sector. And that’s certainly been the message sent by the industry itself. But there’s also no doubt that other key data, representing that crucial context, have gone missing, and these omissions have significantly distorted the picture being presented.

The key statistic that’s been emphasized is the $1 billion in increased 2018 costs claimed by both General Motors (GM) and Ford due to higher metals prices. Which of course sounds like a lot of money. (Fiat Chrysler, the third of the “Detroit 3” auto-makers, has said that because of its use of fixed contracts, its metals prices were largely unaffected last year, but could cost it an extra $300-$350 million this year.)

But the $1 billion figure doesn’t exist in isolation. It needs to be compared with the total costs these companies pay to run their operations. And when that rudimentary calculation is performed, the $1 billion looks pretty unimpressive.

After all, GM’s total costs and expenses in the third quarter of 2018 (the latest data available) topped $34 billion. Its total costs for the year’s first two quarters exceeded $32 billion. (See here and here.) So if the fourth quarter winds up in that ballpark, GM’s 2018 costs will be nearly $130 billion. Which doesn’t make the $1 billion in extra metals costs look very big at all. Ford’s costs, incidentally, were running even higher than GM’s for the first nine months of 2018.  (See the quarterly earnings reports listed here.) 

The extra metals costs look much more important compared with the profits of these companies. Through the third quarter of last year, GM’s operating profits were $7.50 billion. Its guidance for the fourth quarter and for this year is even better. Nonetheless, a company with nearly $130 billion in total annual costs would seem to have plenty of opportunities to generate savings to offset higher steel prices.

Ford’s operating profits so far in 2018 have been lower than GM’s (just under $5.2 billion).  But its costs have been higher, so it’s hard to finger the metals tariffs as its strongest 2018 headwind.

If President Trump imposes tariffs on vehicles and auto parts from much of the rest of the world, the Detroit 3 could definitely have a tougher slog this year. But that point is irrelevant to the impact of the metals tariffs last year.

Will the business and economics press present a fuller picture going forward? General Motors is expected to announce fourth quarter and full-year 2018 earnings on February 6. Ford’s is coming up tomorrow. Stay tuned!

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: As Trump Tariffs Continue, U.S. Manufacturing Growth Steams Along

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aluminum, China, China tariffs, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, metals, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, steel, tariffs, Trade, trade war, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Claims keep getting made that President Trump’s tariffs-heavy trade policies have been hammering American manufacturing. (Here’s just one example from as recent as yesterday.) And government, economy-wide data keeps on coming out showing these claims to be complete bunkum.

Today it’s the Federal Reserve’s turn; its new industrial production report (covering December) make plain as day that metals-using manufacturing for the most part continues to out-perform the rest of manufacturing when it comes to inflation-adjusted output even though Trump metals are supposed to be crippling them with skyrocketing cost increases for key inputs. (As the latest producer price results made clear, almost none of that inflation per se can be detected, either.) And although the effects of the China tariffs are more difficult to unpack, what can be presented responsibly fails to reveal discernible damage since the first tranche was imposed.

Below are the numbers for manufacturing overall, and for industry’s main metals-using sectors. They show after-inflation output since April, since the steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect in late March. In addition to the April-through- December percentage changes, you can also see results through November as reported by the Fed last month, along with the revised through-November numbers, to provide a sense of the trends’ momentum. 

                                              old thru Nov       new thru Nov       thru Dec

overall manufacturing:        +0.80 percent       +0.94 percent  +2.02 percent

durables manufacturing:      +1.73 percent      +2.02 percent   +3.31 percent

fabricated metals products:  +1.61 percent      +1.94 percent   +2.05 percent

machinery:                           +5.11 percent      +5.55 percent    +4.93 percent

automotive:                          -1.46 percent       -1.32 percent    +3.36 percent

major appliances:                 -0.88 percent       -0.31 percent    +0.08 percent

aircraft and parts:                +3.27 percent      +5.29 percent     +6.80 percent

As you can see, the only category that’s experienced production growth problems has been the major appliance sector. February was the first full month during which these levies were in place, and since then, price-adjusted output has been off by 1.99 percent (versus a 3.93 percent improvement for manufacturing as a whole). But as the above table demonstrates, even they’ve been making a comeback lately. In cases like aerospace and automotive, the growth pace has quickened significantly, while in machinery, we see some growth fall-off.

Analyzing the impact of the China tariffs is tougher both because they started more recently (in early July), because they’ve been greatly expanded since then, and because Chinese inputs are used in and compete with such a huge number of domestically produced goods. Moreover, the government’s list of these levies uses a different industry classification system than the Fed uses for industrial production, and exact match-ups don’t abound.

So the below table, showing real output changes for some products tariff-ed since July, is a best guess, with the exception of farm machinery and equipment, and ball bearings. But more power to you if you see China tariff-related damage here.

overall manufacturing:                            +1.72 percent

aircraft engines and engine parts:           +5.42 percent

industrial heating equipment:                 +0.14 percent

oil and gas drilling platform parts:         +2.21 percent

farm machinery and equipment:             +3.29 percent

ball bearings:                                           -0.17 percent

“Tomorrow, tomorrow, I love ya, tomorrow. You’re always a day away!” is a well-known Broadway lyric. As the new Fed industrial production figures demonstrate, “tomorrow” is also the best hope for the tariff alarmists to show that the trade curbs are in anyway undermining the American economy on net.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Tariffs-Led Inflation Remains a Manufactured Crisis

Tags

China, inflation, metals, metals tariffs, producer prices, tariffs, Trade, trade war, wholesale, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Economy followers who are fans of facts have ample reason to be grateful that the partial federal government shutdown has left the Labor Department open. As a result, the Bureau of Labor statistics can keep churning out data showing that the next valid claim of tariff-led damage to the U.S. economy that’s supported by authoritative statistics will also be the first. And today’s producer price numbers (for December) are the latest case in point.

The Department’s producer price index (PPI) measures price changes at the wholesale level, and neither the results for products heavily affected by President Trump’s metals tariffs or by his tariffs on goods from China show any evidence of contributing to inflation that will at some point be passed on to consumers.

Let’s start with metals-using products supposedly vulnerable to the U.S. levies on imports of steel and aluminum, which began to be imposed in late March. As with the situation as of last month, steel itself continues to demonstrate strong pricing power on an annual basis, starting with a 7.4 percent increase in April that’s since soared to 18.5 percent in December.

Even so, on a monthly basis, steel prices have actually fallen on net since August (by 0.36 percent), and dropped by 0.63 percent on month in December. So its price momentum seems to be cooling significantly – and possibly at an accelerating rate.

Further, much weaker pricing power – and therefore inflation – can be seen in various goods that use lots of steel. On the one hand, the December figures still showed robust price increases in products like pumps, compressors, and related equipment; and mining machinery and equipment. Wholesale inflation was 4.1 percent in the former on month in December, and 8.5 percent in the latter. By contrast, in the super-category in which both products are found (“final demand goods”), yearly wholesale inflation was only 2.5 percent in December.

Switch over to “intermediate demand” goods and you find big annual price hikes in sectors like metal containers (6.5 percent), fabricated wire products (16.4 percent), and certain kinds of valves (six percent). Yearly December inflation in that super-category was three percent.

But as in steel itself, the latest monthly figures are generally much lower – e.g., since August, 1.57 percent cumulatively for pumps, compressors, and related equipment; -0.55 percent for metal containers; 0.12 percent for fabricated wire products; and 2.32 percent for the valves.

Mining equipment is a conspicuous exception: Its prices were up 6.21 percent from August through December. But it was a strange exception, since all of the increase took place from October to November.

And the tariff alarmists still need to account for all the steel-using goods where wholesale inflation has been weak for the entire year and looks to be going nowhere: machine tools; oil and gas field machinery; agricultural machinery; motor vehicles; motor vehicle parts; ships; railroad equipment.

It’s true that the markets for all these producer goods vary tremendously, as does their dependence on steel. But that’s the point: Tariffs are only one of many trends and developments that influence their prices.

As for aluminum, its pricing momentum has slowed considerably – from 11.9 percent on an annual basis in April, to 6.3 percent in December. And since August, aluminum wholesale prices are off by fully 3.20 percent.

The first Trump China tariffs weren’t imposed until early July, so the sample size is smaller. But the case for tariff-led wholesale inflation on this front is just as weak as in the metals-related sectors.

Here are the PPI changes for some of the leading products found on the Trump administration’s initial China tariff list. They were imposed on July 6, so the numbers show the cumulative price changes since August. (Note: Because the administration’s Trump announcement used a different classification system than that used in the PPI reports, the below data don’t match up exactly with that tariff list. But the following goods are all at the least main parts of the items on the Trump list, or vice versa.)

aircraft engines and engine parts: 0.04 percent

industrial heating equipment: 1.15 percent

oil and gas drilling platform parts: 0.46 percent

farm machinery and equipment: 2.26 percent

paper-making machinery: -0.13 percent

ball bearings: 1.01 percent

electric generators: 1.85 percent

electricity transformers: 0.35 percent

medical, surgical, and personal aid devices: 0.33 percent

X-ray and electro-medical equipment: 0 percent

As with the metals-using products, some strong price increases are apparent. But so are some very weak increases, a flat-line, and a price drop. So it’s tough to argue that the tariffs have been make-or-break in the wholesale pricing sphere. I’ll keep tracking the China angle with unusual alacrity, though, since the number of tariff-ed imports expanded greatly later in 2018.

Lastly, there are the tariffs on large household laundry machines. Their retail prices keep increasing strongly, as shown in the latest (December) consumer price data – though not as strongly as in the immediate aftermath of the product-specific tariffs slapped on their imports in late January.

But at the wholesale level, inflation has been much weaker lately – a 0.84 percent monthly December increase for “household appliances” (the laundry equipment isn’t broken out), but only a 1.61 percent advance since August, and a comparatively meager 3.7 percent increase year-on-year. Call me a cynic, but it looks like consumers have been paying much more for these products this past year mainly because the retailers have been making a killing, not because of tariff hikes.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Can We (Finally) Start Deflating the Tariffs-Led Inflation Claims?

Tags

aluminum, China, China tariffs, inflation, metals, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, steel, tariffs, Trade, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Good luck to you if you’re looking for signs of tariffs-led inflation in yesterday’s U.S consumer price data from the Labor Department.

It’s not that goods that used tariff-ed products (either steel and aluminum, or inputs from China) or that are tariff-ed themselves (final products from China) haven’t become more expensive since the relevant levies were imposed. It’s that the prices of many goods completely unaffected by the tariffs have gone up as well – and in many cases, faster than those that have been affected by the trade curbs. So there’s no evidence that the tariffs themselves have had any notable impact.

In fact, these latest figures (bringing the story up through December) underscore how many forces and developments influence price changes.

A great example is provided by canned fruits and vegetables – presented below in the table showing price changes over various key periods of time (including for the post-March tariff period) for metals-using products. Their costs of course include the cost of either the aluminum or the type of steel used in their cans. When you look at the numbers for most of these time frames, it’s clear that the prices of these foods have risen faster than the overall rate of what’s called “core inflation” – the inflation rate minus the costs of food and energy, which are considered too volatile price-wise to yield an accurate understanding of what economists regard as the nation’s underlying, most fundamental, inflationary performance.

Interestingly, the prices for canned fruits and vegetables have increased much faster during these periods than the prices of food overall. So what’s driving the big price increases in these canned foods must be the cans, right – and presumably what they’re made of? Not if you look closely.

For the real problem is clearly vegetables. Both month-to-month and clearly for the entire year, fresh vegetable prices have soared. Largely as a result, the prices of canned vegetables have jumped unusually strongly, and significantly boosted the numbers for the overall canned fruits and vegetables category.  

The special role being played by vegetable prices is also clear from looking at the trends in food prices – which aren’t included in the core inflation number. Except for December, these prices have risen considerably more slowly than those prices in the core grouping, or in the economy as a whole. 

If you’re still skeptical, look at the price trends for several other food products that often come in cans – like beverages of all kinds, and soup. There’s simply no consistent pattern of their increasing faster than core inflation over any time period. 

Similarly, although the prices of metals-using auto parts have risen more robustly than core inflation, the prices of metals-using vehicles have risen much more weakly. In fact, from December, 2017 to December, 2018, they’ve fallen in absolute terms. So something, or somethings, other than metals prices and tariffs count for much more in the total prices of these goods.

                                     Nov.-Dec.       Since April        y/y April           y/y Dec.

core inflation:            0.21 percent   +1.39 percent   +2.12 percent   +2.22 percent

overall inflation:       -0.06 percent  +1.09 percent   +2.43 percent   +1.95 percent

food:                         +0.37 percent  +0.98 percent  +1.39 percent    +1.58 percent

fresh fruits & vegs:  +1.94 percent  +1.82 percent   -0.45 percent    +1.75 percent

fresh fruits:              +1.33 percent    -1.73 percent  +1.35 percent     -0.73 percent

fresh vegetables:      +2.63 percent   +6.05 percent   -2.53 percent    +4.63 percent

processed fruits        +0.67 percent    -0.64 percent   -0.59 percent    +0.87 percent

& vegs:

canned fruits            +1.48 percent    +0.99 percent   -0.07 percent    +3.12 percent

& vegs

canned fruits:           +1.44 percent    +1.39 percent   -1.50 percent    +2.29 percent

canned vegs:            +1.30 percent    +1.12 percent   +1.04 percent   +4.18 percent

soups:                      +2.49 percent    +2.28 percent     -0.54 percent   -1.43 percent

malt beverages         -0.04 percent    +1.82 percent    +0.84 percent   +1.87 percent

consumed at home

alcoholic bevs          -0.04 percent     +1.34 percent    +2.17 percent   +2.25 percent

consumed away

juices & non-         + 0.13 percent     +1.77 percent     -0.25 percent  +2.51 percent

alcoholic drinks

carbonated drinks:  +0.41 percent     +3.01 percent     +0.03 percent  +4.07 percent

non-frozen, non-     +0.18 percent    +1.37 percent       -0.53 percent  +1.46 percent

carbonated non-

alcoholic drinks

new cars & trucks:        0 percent     +0.78 percent      -1.62 percent    -0.24 percent

auto parts:              +0.42 percent     +1.58 percent      -0.74 percent   +2.20 percent

Tariffs on goods from China have been in effect for fewer months than the metals tariffs. And since July, they’ve been imposed in phases, which were followed by a decision by President Trump to delay increases in a big tranche as part of the latest cease-fire in the trade conflict with China. So the data is less definitive. But thus far, at least, the prices of the goods below – which represent some of the main imports from China subjected to tariffs by the first rounds of these levies, which were imposed in July – have mainly rising more slowly than the rest of core inflation sectors. (The sportswear numbers are dicey, since such apparel is not broken out from the rest of the category as such. So the figures below represent results from a women’s apparel category that includes sportswear.)

                             Nov.-Dec.          Since Aug.        Aug. y/y           Dec. y/y

core inflation:   +0.21 percent   +0.73 percent    +2.19 percent   +2.22 percent

furniture:          +0.55 percent   +0.90 percent     -0.66 percent   +1.68 percent

auto parts:        +0.42 percent   +0.82 percent    +0.39 percent    +2.20 percent

tires:                 +0.98 percent  +1.50 percent      -1.64 percent    +1.29 percent

appliances:       -0.33 percent   +1.25 percent     +2.31 percent    +4.74 percent

sportswear:       -0.89 percent   -2.14 percent       -0.86 percent    -1.33 percent

As for appliances, their out-performance is due largely to a separate set of tariffs imposed on large household laundry equipment starting in February. As shown below, however, even in this case, price increases are starting to moderate. That’s clear from the decline in the year-on-year figure between February and December, and from very slow price increase recorded between November and December.

                                 Nov.-Dec.        Since Feb.          Feb. y/y           Dec. y/y

core inflation:       +0.21 percent   +1.67 percent   +1.86 percent   +2.22 percent

appliances:            -0.33 percent   +3.41 percent   +0.25 percent   +4.74 percent

major appliances: +0.19 percent  +11.59 percent   -4.22 percent   +9.02 percent

I know that I may be starting to sound like a broken record on the (negligible) impact of tariffs on the American economy so far. But until globalization cheerleaders in politics and business, and their mouthpieces in the Mainstream Media, start telling the story accurately, I’ll keep correcting the record.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New U.S. Jobs Report Delivers (Another) Face Slap to Trump’s Trade Critics

Tags

China, durable goods, global supply chains, Jobs, manufacturing, metals, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, tariffs, trade war, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

My deepest sympathies to the nation’s tariff fear-mongers, who keep insisting that President Trump’s levies on imports have been decimating America’s domestic manufacturing sector. This morning’s Labor Department report on the U.S. employment situation in December reveals that they’re still as pathetically wrong as ever.

Let’s start, as usual, with the impact of the President’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, which started to be imposed in April, and which allegedly have been hammering metals-using industries. This Trump decision is supposed to epitomize the folly of such protectionist policies in general, and metals tariffs in particular, since metals-using industries generate much more output than metals-producing indusries, and employ many more workers.

Yet has been the case since the onset of these levies, the data makes abundantly clear that the metals-using sectors generally have been outperforming not only the rest of manufacturing jobs-wise, but the private sector economy as a whole. Here are the numbers for April through the last three data months (keeping in mind that the November and December figures are both still preliminary):

                                                   thru October     thru November     thru December

entire private sector:                +0.99 percent      +1.13 percent      +1.37 percent

overall manufacturing:           + 0.99 percent      +1.20 percent      +1.45 percent

durable goods:                         +1.25 percent      +1.43 percent      +1.67 percent

fabricated metals products:     +1.33 percent      +1.30 percent      +1.75 percent

non-electrical machinery:       +1.66 percent      +1.90 percent       +2.20 percent

automotive vehicles & parts:  +0.73 percent      +0.58 percent      +0.77 percent

household appliances:             -1.25 percent       -1.41 percent        not available

aerospace products & parts:   +4.45 percent      +5.47 percent        not available

Notably, even in one major sector that’s been lagging – automotive – the pace of net new job creation has quickened a bit lately. And the industry that’s genuinely taken it on the employment chin – appliances – has been dealing both with a separate set of tariffs on large household laundry machines along with a major slump in the American housing sector.

The impact of the Trump administration’s wide-ranging China tariffs is tougher to identify, partly because they only began in July, and partly because Chinese inputs are found in so many manufacturing industries. But here are the data for sectors with extensive global supply chains that often pass through China:

                                                           July thru November     July thru December

entire private sector:                             +0.66 percent              +0.90 percent

overall manufacturing:                         +0.66 percent              +0.93 percent

chemicals:                                            +1.54 percent              +1.40 percent

non-electrical machinery:                    +0.66 percent              +0.96 percent

computer & electronics products:        +0.50 percent              +0.83 percent

automotive vehicles & parts:               +0.90 percent              +1.08 percent

With one exception – computer and electronics products – these globalized industries have outperformed, too. And even in that lagging sector, employment has been growing faster lately.

These results still don’t prove that President Trump was right in claiming that trade wars are “easy to win.” But they sure add to the evidence that, for the United States, they’re eminently winnable. And that the President’s critics are losing. 

Glad I Didn’t Say That! U.S. Automakers Debunk Their Own Tariff Fear-Mongering

Tags

automotive, China tariffs, FCA, Financial Times, General Motors, Glad I Didn't Say That!, metals tariffs, msn.com, Patti Waldmeir, tariffs, Trade, trade war

“The auto industry…fears that new tariffs, on top of those already enacted on Chinese-made vehicles and imported aluminum and steel, could have a major negative impact on the American new car market.”

–MSN.com, November 18, 2018

 

General Motors’ “head of US sales, said on Thursday: ‘We feel confident heading into 2019 because we have more major truck and crossover launches coming during the year and the US economy is strong.’”

–Financial Times, January 3, 2019

 

FCA’s head of US sales “also predicted a ‘solid’ 2019, attributing the company’s strength in 2018 to ‘the efforts we undertook to realign our production to give US consumers more Jeep vehicles and Ram pick-up trucks.’”

–Financial Times, January 3, 2019

 

(Sources “Hit hard by trade war, automakers hoping Trump will hold off on new round of tariffs,” Money, MSN.com, November 18, 2018, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/hit-hard-by-trade-war-automakers-hoping-trump-will-hold-off-on-new-round-of-tariffs/ar-BBPOjRn & “US car sales defied predictions of a slowdown in 2018,” by Patti Waldmeir, Financial Times, January 3, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/e538e316-0f52-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745)

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New U.S. Manufacturing Production Data (Again) Mock Tariff Fear-Mongering

Tags

aluminum, China, durable goods, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted output, manufacturing, metals, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, non-durable goods, steel, tariffs, Trade, {What's Left of) Our Economy

If you’re among the legions of tariff alarmists in America’s intertwined political, business, and media establishments, this morning’s industrial production report (for November) from the Federal Reserve turned out to be an especially cruel hoax. It’s overall results seem to reveal that President Trump’s levies on imports of steel, aluminum, and on products from China are (finally!) producing major economic data showing damage to domestic manufacturing in the form of inflation-adjusted output. But the critical details (once again) show absolutely noting of the kind.

Let’s start with the metals tariffs – which started to be imposed in late March – and the performance of industries that make heavy use of them. If the Trump tariffs are indeed going to bite, then you’d think that some evidence would be visible eight months later. But the new Fed data make clear that this evidence still hasn’t appeared. As with last month’s post on the industrial production statistics, I’m including small household appliances. I’m still increasingly convinced that they’re now so small and consequently use little in the way of steel and aluminum, they do incorporate lots of electronics – so in principle they reveal something about the China tariffs’ impact.

The data start with April (the first full month in which the metals tariffs were in place) and go through November. I’m presenting the previously reported and revised October results in order to provide a sense of the trends’ momentum. I’m also adding aircraft and parts, which I carelessly left out last month; therefore, the original October results aren’t available.

                                                    old thru Oct      new thru Oct         thru Nov

overall manufacturing:              +1.30 percent    +0.78 percent     +0.80 percent

durables manufacturing:           +1.93 percent    +1.55 percent     +1.73 percent

fabricated metals products:      +2.06 percent     +1.67 percent     +1.61 percent

machinery:                               +5.09 percent      +4.54 percent    +5.11 percent

automotive:                               -2.42 percent      -1.74 percent     -1.46 percent

small appliances:                      -6.62 percent       -8.10 percent   -10.86 percent

major appliances:                     -3.32 percent       -3.24 percent     -0.88 percent

aircraft & parts:                        not available       +3.54 percent    +3.27 percent

The good news for tariff alarmists is the overall real manufacturing growth slowdown apparent from this table, led by a significant downward revision for October. But look more closely and there’s no reason to blame the metals tariffs at all.

For if they were the main culprit, why would the slowdown be so much more modest in the durable goods sector – where so many of the biggest metals-using industries are found? Why would heavy metals-using machinery still be outperforming big-time? Why would another metals-reliant giant, automotive, be demonstrating such impressive catch-up? And how could the major appliances sector – which has also been hit with a product-specific tariff on large home laundry machines – be making up even more ground?

The details will also prove disappointing to China tariff alarmists. Starting in July, levies on $250 billion worth of imports from the People’s Republic. And so many U.S. domestically manufactured products contain parts and components and other inputs from China that it’s been easy to sell the contention that the higher prices for American industry resulting from the tariffs will backfire on the entire manufacturing sector.

Yet once more, the Fed industrial production data reveal these claims to be “truthy” (i.e, something that pushers want to believe is the case) rather than “true.” As noted last month, Chinese inputs are so widely used that I can’t perform a deep statistical dive for now. But the main manufacturing aggregates don’t bear out the “tariff-mageddon” story for the China levies, either.

As the numbers in the first table for smaller appliances indicate, there’s a case that they’ve been damaged by the China tariffs, since they surely use lots of Made in China electronic components. But the industrial production data writ large show nothing of the kind. The figures below show the changes in real output for manufacturing generally, and for its two main super-sectors, for the five months since the first China tariffs were imposed (during the first week of July) and for the five months to and including July.

                                                      March-July                       July-Nov

overall manufacturing:               +0.87 percent                 +0.52 percent

durable goods:                            +0.13 percent                 +2.01 percent

non-durable goods:                     +1.65 percent                  -0.99 percent

The obvious conclusion: Unless Chinese inputs are highly concentrated in the non-durable goods sector (and there’s no justification for this assumption), there’s a problem in non-durable goods stemming from something (or things) other than the China tariffs.  ‘

Luckily for the tariff alarmists, however, there’s no sign that they’ll be held accountable by the institution that’s supposed to be democracy’s watchdog:  the Mainstream Media.  So for the foreseeable future, in terms of what the public will be reading and hearing on trade policy, expect gloom to keep springing eternal. 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Yes, We (Still) Have No Tariffs-Led Inflation

Tags

China, consumer price index, consumer prices, inflation, metals tariffs, tariffs, Trade, Trump, washing machines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

As with yesterday’s producer price data, good luck to anyone trying to find significant tariff-led inflation in the U.S. economy in today’s consumer price numbers (for November), whether on the metals front or the China front. Because it’s still not showing up. There’s one clear exception (household laundry machines), which has been hit with its own product-specific levy since early February, but where doubts still persist about whether the resulting pricing power can stick. Some inflation is also apparent in motor vehicle parts.

Here’s the raw data, first for metals-using consumer goods where – bizarrely – powerful inflationary pressure are already being reported. For comparison’s sake, I’ve also included the statistics for overall “core” inflation (“core CPIU” in government lingo), which strips out volatile food, energy, and housing prices. And for fruits and vegetables, I’ve presented the numbers for these products in their canned and un-canned processed forms, to reveal whether the prices for the steel and aluminum cans in which the former come are driving price trends, or whether other factors have been more important.

                                Oct.-Nov.       Since April        y/y April           y/y Nov

core CPIU             0.14 percent   +0.77 percent  +1.19 percent   +1.51 percent

processed fruits    -0.31 percent   -1.30 percent   -0.36 percent    -0.22 percent

& vegs

canned fruits         -0.42 percent   -0.48 percent   -0.07 percent   +0.69 percent

 & vegs

canned fruits         -0.07 percent   -0.05 percent   -1.52 percent   +0.67 percent

malt beverages     +0.30 percent  +1.78 percent  +0.84 percent   +1.61 percent  

 at home 

alcoholic               +0.25 percent  +1.38 percent  +2.17 percent   +2.60 percent

  beverages away

juices & non-         0.45 percent   +1.64 percent    -0.25 percent   +1.73 percent

-alcoholic drinks

non-frozen, non-    -0.27 percent  +1.19 percent    -0.53 percent   +0.79 percent

  carbonated non-

  alcoholic drinks

non-alcoholic         -0.02 percent  +2.72 percent   +0.03 percent   +3.04 percent

  carbonated drinks

new cars & trucks -0.01 percent   +0.77 percent    -1.62 percent    -0.29 percent

motor vehicle       +0.35 percent   +1.15 percent    -0.74 percent    +2.13 percent

  parts 

The main conclusions emerging from this first table? Between October and November, prices have been weaker than the overall core inflation rate for some products (canned fruits and vegetables, new motor vehicles, and three non-alcoholic drinks categories) and stronger in fewer products (beer and other malt drinks consumed at home, alcoholic beverages consumed in bars and restaurants, and motor vehicle parts). That development alone strongly indicates that metals prices are only one influence on the prices of metals-using products, and likely not the main influence.

Further evidence for the relatively low importance of metals prices, and therefore tariffs? Over the latest data month, prices for canned fruits and vegetables have fallen slightly faster than those for all processed fruits and vegetables, but prices for canned fruits have fallen more slowly. So it’s hard justify foisting lots of blame on the cans.

In addition, care is needed in interpreting all the drink statistics. In the first place, as noted in previous RealityChek posts on consumer prices, the beer and non-alcoholic drinks figures don’t distinguish between products sold in bottles from products sold in cans. And the alcoholic beverages numbers don’t even distinguish among beer, wine, and spirits, on top of combining canned products numbers with the results for products sold in bottles and other kinds of containers (although not much wine and spirits seems to come in cans).

A major spread also emerges from the numbers since April – the first full month when any metals tariffs had been imposed. The price increase for automotive parts is relatively strong, and the hikes for all drink categories are especially robust. These indicate that demand for drinks of all kinds has been up significantly during this period, but the data are complicated again by the failure to distinguish drinks sold in cans and in other packages. And most of these trends are clear and complications are clear from the two year-on-year statistics.

Less information about the impact of China tariffs can be gleaned from the new consumer price report, because the first of these levies was only imposed in early July, and most of these were slapped on producer, not consumer goods. But some of these products contain a great deal of producer goods like steel or electronic components, and the figures for two of them are presented below – including the latest monthly results, the price changes since July, and the July and latest year-on-year data. And tariff-led inflation of any kind…just isn’t.

                              Oct.-Nov          Since July          July y/y            Nov y/y

core CPIU         +0.14 percent    +0.34 percent  +1.48 percent    +1.51 percent

tools, hardware  -0.24 percent     -0.31 percent   -0.07 percent     -0.12 percent

  et al

video/audio       +0.14 percent    +1.06 percent   -0.79 percent     -0.38 percent           equipment

But there is one product for which tariff-induced price hikes are clear, and that’s those separately tariff-ed household laundry machines. Here are the data for October-November, since February (shortly after they began, and year-on-year for February and November.

                                    Oct.-Nov.       Since Feb            Feb y/y            Nov y/y

core CPIU               +0.14 percent  +0.74 percent   +0.91 percent   +1.51 percent

laundry equipment +2.97 percent +18.25 percent    -7.61 percent  +15.52 percent

Of course, the steel levies have no doubt contributed to the elevated prices, too. Even here, though, it’s interesting that despite a big October-November price jump, the year-on-year increase in November prices is somewhat lower than that for February. Also, even with the big new monthly surge, washing machine prices remain at four-and-a-half-year lows. In other words, as with steel and aluminum, these goods were flooding the U.S. market and sold at prices having little to do with any free market forces, much less free trade.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Still Desperately Seeking Tariff-Induced Inflation

Tags

aluminum, China, consumer prices, inflation, metals tariffs, producer prices, steel, tariffs, Trump, washing machines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

There’s especially bad news for trade war alarmists contained in this morning’s government report on producer prices. Not only does it contain yet more evidence that any inflation from President Trump’s metals tariffs keeps fading, but it’s now possible to show that his China tariffs aren’t fueling price hikes that are noteworthy, either – let alone increases likely to last.

Regarding the levies on steel and aluminum, which began to be imposed in late March, the weakest pricing trends have been apparent in aluminum. In April, its year-on-year price increases at the wholesale level stood at 11.9 percent, peaked at twenty percent in June, and as of November (the latest data reported this morning), the rate was down to 5.9 percent. That’s largely because wholesale aluminum prices have dropped on a monthly basis for five straight months, including by 1.5 percent from October to November.

More pricing power has been demonstrated in steel. Year-on-year wholesale prices for this metal advanced by 7.4 percent in April and have continued upward since, though at a much slower pace since August’s 18.6 percent. In November, the annual increase was 19.8 percent.

On a monthly basis since August, steel prices have dipped on net, even though between October and November, they increased by 0.5 percent.

Importantly, these higher metals prices don’t seem to be transferring uniformly into higher prices for metals-heavy products, including parts and components. For example, some mounting price pressure is apparent in pumps, compressors, and equipment; and mining machinery and equipment. But these sectors were greatly outnumbered by those in which price momentum seemed weak at best and going nowhere – such as construction machinery; machine tools; oil field and gas field machinery; aircraft; and motor vehicles and parts.

And if the price increases aren’t at least roughly comparable, then it’s hard to justify singling out tariffs as a major problem to this point.

The Trump China tariffs began in early July, but evidence that they’re igniting much inflation is even more elusive. On the one hand, it’s true that China’s currency is down versus the U.S. dollar since July – by a little over four percent – which all else equal will depress the prices of Chinese-made goods and services versus their American competitors all over the world. On the other, that’s a sign that, when it comes to China, many special variables influence prices (like a wide range of subsidies), along with the usual supply and demand forces.

Most important, here are the wholesale price changes for some leading products on the Trump administration’s list of the first 818 imports from China slapped with tariffs on July 6. So they represent the changes from July through November.

aircraft engines and engine parts:                                  0.35 percent

industrial heating equipment:                                       0.89 percent

oil and gas drilling platform parts:                               0.46 percent

farm machinery and equipment:                                   2.08 percent

paper-making machinery:                                            0.54 percent

ball bearings:                                                                1.12 percent

electric generators:                                                      1.71 percent

electricity transformers:                                              0.35 percent

medical equipment incl X-rays, pacemakers:                  0 percent

Three arguably major price spikes are apparent, but the big question remains whether these increases will stick. We’ll be watching.

Finally, there are the washing machine tariffs. As previously noted, at the retail level, prices of these appliances shot up shortly after they were first imposed in late January – to the unmistakable glee of supporters of the pre-Trump trade policy status quo. But at the wholesale level, home appliance prices (washing machines aren’t broken out from this category) have climbed only 0.76 percent from February through November. And during the last two months, they’ve fallen by 0.7 percent and 0.6 percent sequentially. So good luck with claiming that levies at the border deserve blame for whatever higher prices were paid by American consumers who had the misfortune to buy washing machines earlier this year.

As for the November consumer price data (measuring changes at the retail level), the data don’t come out until tomorrow. But on a monthly basis, they fell by 0.2 percent from July to August and by 3.8 percent between August and September before recovering by 0.2 percent between September and October.

In other words, there’s been deflation in washing machine prices lately. As these and the wholesale price figures make clear, that continues to be a fate richly deserved to date by tariff-led inflation claims.