(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Winning Trade War Message from the Last Pre-China Virus Manufacturing Figures

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aerospace, aircraft, Boeing, China, China virus, coronavirus, inflation-adjusted output, manufacturing, manufacturing production, metals, supply chains, tariffs, Trade, trade wars, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The new Federal Reserve industrial production figures are now out, and although they only bring the story up through February, they contain two vital messages: First, taking into account ongoing safety problems with aerospace giant Boeing (and its vast domestic supply chain), they’re very solid – and reinforce the case that the pre-China Virus manufacturing and overall U.S. economies were faring well despite widespread slowdown fears. Second, they also show that, despite the equally widespread tariff alarmism being mongered throughout the Trump years, domestic manufacturing wound up handling the so-called trade wars just fine.

According to the Fed, inflation-adjusted manufacturing output increased by 0.12 percent month-to-month and remained down on a year-on-year basis (by 0.18 percent). January’s monthly constant dollar production dip was revised down from 0.09 percent to 0.23 percent. Yet this real output is up on net by 1.33 percent since its last low point (last October) and by 0.36 percent since the first full month of significant Trump tariffs (April, 2018).

At the same time, these production levels remain 1.28 percent below those of manufacturing’s last peak – in December, 2018. So these are by no means salad days for domestic industry.

Take a look, however, at the main Boeing-related figures. Aircraft production and parts sank by 5.12 percent sequentially in February. It reached its lowest level since October, 2011 and this drop followed January’s 11.36 percent monthly nosedive.

Moreover, although impossible from the Fed figures to quantify precisely, the production halt of Boeing’s popular 737 Max model that began in January is clearly dragging down output in sectors ranging from metals to industrial machinery to plastics to electronics and instruments.

The rapid recent spread of the coronavirus throughout the United States will start generating very different and much worse manufacturing production and other data going forward. But these latest data show domestic industry’s performance even as tariffs on literally hundreds of billions of dollars worth of tariff on Chinese and metals inputs used by manufacturers remained firmly in place. And if that doesn’t signal loud and clear that both American producers and consumers were withstanding the Trump trade wars – a New Normal that’s likely to survive the passing of COVID 19 – quite nicely, and in fact that the entire economy had been winning it, what could?

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Score Another Victory for Trump’s Tariffs – on Metals

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aluminum, Bob Tita, China, metals, overcapacity, steel, tariffs, The Wall Street Journal, Trump, World Steel Association, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Wall Street Journal manufacturing reporter Bob Tita, who knows his stuff, more than earned his paycheck with a new story on how all the coronavirus-related disruption to the global economy is worsening a chronic global glut of key metals – especially steel – that’s likely to keep ballooning thanks to continued over-production from glutter-in-chief China.

Especially alarming seems to be this Tita finding: As the PRC’s economy and manufacturing sector have slowed markedly due to the outbreak, and reduced demand for metals,

“many of the country’s steel mills and aluminum smelters have continued to operate because stopping and starting equipment handling molten metal is expensive and risky. Millions of tons of steel and aluminum produced during what is now the worst manufacturing slump on record in China have created a surplus of metal that will take months to shrink, even if the epidemic is contained and demand recovers later this year in China and beyond.

“As a result, the global stockpile of steel and aluminum threatens to push down prices and put new pressure on producers in the U.S., Western Europe and elsewhere. Many of those companies were already struggling to earn a profit on steel and aluminum because of lower prices and weakening demand from manufacturers.”

Indeed, he quotes a U.S. scrap steel broker as fearing that “We could see China swamp the entire world with steel.”

Yet Tita – and the broker – seem to be missing something crucial about the steel glut’s recent past, present, and likely future: The situation then, now, and going forward would’ve been much worse if not for the global nature of President Trump’s steel tariffs. And the latest global output data from the World Steel Association have just proven this point yet again.

When first imposed, in March, 2018, the levies were blasted as catastrophic mistakes by globalist and free trade conventional wisdom-mongers in politics, the Mainstream Media, big metals-using industries, and their hired guns in the think tank world. Yes, they acknowledged, China has been guilty of dumping its bloated steel (and aluminum) output overseas at artificially low prices, thereby exporting not only metals but a metals recession and unemployment around the world. But the United States was an exception, because of steel tariffs already imposed under the Obama administration.

The new U.S. duties were hitting America’s trade partners indiscriminately, including supposedly loyal allies in Europe and East Asia (along with Mexico and Canada). What could be dumber or more short-sighted – especially since these countries had joined with the United States to start putting multilateral pressure on China to cease and desist?

But as RealityChek regulars know, none of these complaints held even a drop of water. For the rest of the world was likely to continue responding to the metals flood from China the way it always had – by ramping up their own exports to the United States, and/or putting the Chinese metals inundating their own markets into new boxes with their own labels and sending them state-side – a practice known as transshipping (and involves committing customs fraud).

Moreover, after achieving exactly nothing since it was created in September, 2016, the multilateral steel talks seem doomed because China has decided it’s had it even with pretending to be interested in cutting its capacity meaningfully.

Yet thanks to the global scope of the Trump tariffs, the U.S. economy is no longer serving as the world’s steel buyer of last resort – and manufacturing punching bag. I first documented their effectiveness in this May, 2019 op-ed. And I’m pleased to report that as of January, 2020, the World Steel Association’s figures show that they’re still working exactly as intended.

The Association tracks output for 64 countries that comprise the vast bulk of global production. And its new figures show that on a January-January basis, China’s steel production rose in tonnage terms by 7.2 percent. That’s considerably faster than world production growth of 2.1 percent.

But the American industry expanded output by more than the global industry, too – by 2.5 percent. And much of this relative improvement stemmed from the poor production performances of other regions and countries that traditionally viewed the United States as the world’s big steel dumping ground. For example, during this year-long stretch, steel tonnage production in Japan rose by only 1.3 percent. For South Korea and Taiwan, it actually fell – by eight percent and 14.6 percent, respectively. And overall European Union production sank by twelve percent.

This success contrasts sharply with the pre-tariffs situation, when the United States was clearly the world’s biggest steel production loser as the result of gluts not only in China but created by many other economies.  

At the same time, the battle to safeguard American domestic metals producers hasn’t been won once and for all. As Tita notes, although “Tariffs have made many types of metal made in China uncompetitive in the U.S.,” China’s still “large steel-and-aluminum output drives up supply and weighs on prices around the world. Excess metal in China could create more competition for U.S. steel exports or enter the U.S. indirectly as imports from Canada and Mexico” – where the American levies have been lifted in connection with the signing of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), the follow-on to the North American Free Trade agreement (NAFTA).

But the new U.S. and global production numbers also show indisputably that Mr. Trump was right and his critics wrong about his sweeping approach to the metals tariffs. Just don’t expect any of the critics to admit it.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Productivity Data Further Debunk “Tariffs Hurt” Claims

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aluminum, aluminum tariffs, China, durable goods, fabricated metals products, inputs, Labor Department, labor productivity, manufacturing, metals, metals tariffs, multi-factor productivity, productivity, steel, steel tariffs, tariffs, Trade, trade law, World Trade Organization, WTO, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The Trump administration’s announcement last Friday of new tariffs on some metals-using manufactures imports was greeted with the predictable combination of chuckles and gloating from the economists, think tank hacks, and Mainstream Media journalists who keep insisting that all such trade curbs are self-destructive whenever they’re imposed.

If the critics bothered to look at the new official data on multi-factor productivity, however, they’d stop their victory laps in their tracks. For the Labor Department’s latest report on this broadest productivity measure utterly trashes their claims that the tariffs slapped on metals in early 2018 – which unofficially launched the so-called Trump trade wars – have backfired by undercutting most domestic American manufacturing.

In fairness, the Trump administration itself gave the trade and globalization cheerleaders lots of evidence for their triumphalism. Specifically, the levies were justified with statistics showing that various categories of goods made primarily of tariff-ed steel and aluminum had seen major surges of imports since the duties began. The obvious conclusion? Foreign-based producers of these products were capitalizing on their cheaper metals available to their factories to undersell their U.S.-based competition.

As a result, Mr. Trump decided to tariff some of these final products, too – to erase the advantage created for imports from less expensive steel and aluminum.

So in one sense, it’s tough to blame tariff critics for feeling vindicated about predictions that the metals levies might boost the metals-producing sectors themselves, but injure the far larger metals-using sectors. Ditto for their warnings that in an economy with so many connected industries, protection for one or a few would inevitably spur calls for such alleged favoritism by others, threatening a consequent loss of efficiency for all of manufacturing and even the entire economy.

Examine the issue in more detail, though, and you see that it’s entirely possible to arrive at radically different conclusions. For example, the new tariffs appear to be imposed on a limited set of products, and none of them (e.g., nails, tacks, wires, cables, even aluminum auto stampings) qualifies as a major industry. In other words, the chief metals-using industries, like motor vehicles and parts overall, aerospace, industrial machinery (many of which have been complaining loudly about the metals tariffs, even though their overall operational costs have been barely affected) were left out.

Finally in this vein, and as the critics imply, the new Trump tariffs also make the case for trade curbs on any final products whose significant inputs receive duties. Why indeed strap otherwise competitive domestic producers with higher prices for materials, parts, and components? This practice has been a major flaw in the U.S. trade law system, which has prioritized legal over economic and industrial considerations, since its founding. And in fact, my old organization, the U.S. Business and Industry Council, has been urging this reform since at least 2008.

Even better – to prevent cronyism from influencing such trade policy decisions, impose a uniform global tariff on all manufactures, or all non-energy goods.

But it’s just as important to point out a gaping hole in the longstanding argument that cheap imported inputs (including subsidized, and therefore artificially cheap imported inputs) are essential for the overall global competitiveness of U.S. domestic manufacturing. And the hole has been opened (or perhaps it’s more accurate to say, reopened, given this previous RealityChek analysis of earlier data) by those new multi-factor productivity statistics.

They only go through 2018 (such time lags explain why multi-factor productivity trends aren’t followed as closely as labor productivity trends). But they’re the broader of the two productivity measures, as they gauge the effect of many inputs other than hours worked. And via the table below, they make clear that even the wide open access domestic manufacturers enjoyed to artificially cheap metals and other imported inputs have played absolutely no evident role in improving industry’s health. In fact, there’s reason to conclude that the more access domestic industry had to such materials, parts, and components, the less productive it became.

                                                               Total mfg   Durable goods   fabr metals

1990s expansion (91-2000):                   +23.40%       +38.76%         +4.79%

bubble decade expansion (02-07):          +11.74%      +16.61%          +7.62%

current expansion (10-present):                -4.84%         -0.84%           -4.51%

pre-China WTO (87-2001):                   +22.18%      +37.72%           -3.32%

post-China WTO (02-present):               +6.72%      +17.17%           -2.05%

As usual, the time periods chosen to illustrate these trends consist (with one exception) of recent economic expansions (because they enable the best apples-to-apples comparisons to be made). And the 1990s expansion is the first one examined because the relevant Labor Department data only go back to 1987. The products chosen consist of all manufactured goods, durable goods industries (the super-category containing most of the big metals users), and fabricated metals products (the most metals-intensive sectors of all).

The table demonstrates that multi-factor productivity growth across-the-board has weakened dramatically from the 1990s expansion through the current – ongoing – expansion. The slowdown between the 1990s expansion and the previous decade’s expansion was moderate (and multi-factor productivity actually grew faster during the second in fabricated metals, though in absolute terms its improvement lagged badly). But during the current recovery, multi-factor productivity growth has been replaced in all three instances by multi-factor productivity decline. And crucially, during none of this time did any of these manufacturing categories face any shortage of imported inputs of any kind – subsidized or not.

Indeed, one event in 2001 greatly increased the supply of subsidized inputs – China’s admission into the World Trade Organization (WTO). For once China joined, the difficulty of using U.S. trade law to keep these Chinese products out of the U.S. economy became much greater.

Yet at the same time, as shown below, productivity growth was considerably weaker after China’s WTO entry than before in manufacturing overall, and in durable goods. And although its performance actually improved in fabricated metals, that industry’s performance was much worse in absolute terms.

Nor does the inclusion of the 2007-2009 Great Recession in the post-2002 China-related data (which violates the “apples-to-apples rule”) seem to have been a game changer – because the worst performances of all in each case, and by a mile, have been registered during the current expansion. Moreover, since the data stop in 2018, those current expansion results are dominated by the period preceding both the Trump metals tariffs and the Trump China tariffs (most of which target industrial inputs, as opposed to final products).

It’s entirely possible that, for various reasons, the multi-factor productivity statistics would have been even worse if not for the widespread availability of cheap imports. Or maybe multi-factor productivity isn’t much of a measure of manufacturing’s health? Both alternative explanations, however, seem pretty far-fetched (especially given the pre- and post-China WTO results).

Much likelier – as I argued in that post linked above – the availability of cheap inputs has helped retard productivity growth by enabling businesses to achieve cost-savings without investing in research and development into new products and especially processes, and without buying more efficient equipment (including software).

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Is Manufacturing Employment Being Undercut by Boeing Along with Trade Wars?

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737 Max, aerospace, aircraft, aluminum, Boeing, China, Jobs, manufacturing, metals, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, steel, supply chain, tariffs, trade war, {What's Left of) Our Economy

One of the biggest questions raised by the new (lousy) manufacturing results of this morning’s monthly U.S. jobs report concerns whether industry’s dismal recent performance is being impacted more by President Trump’s tariff-heavy trade policies or by Boeing’s aircraft safety woes. The bulk of the evidence released this morning seems to point to the trade wars as the continuing main culprit, but also to some Boeing-related puzzles. 

Overall, the sector lost 12,000 jobs on month in December – its worst such result (excluding October, whose figures were distorted by the General Motors strike) since August, 2016’s 23,000 decrease).  Moreover, the year-end annual manufacturing jobs gain of 46,000 was the lowest such figure since 2016’s 7,000 loss.  (For comparison’s sake, 2018’s annual manufacturing employment increase of 264,000 was the best such result since 1997’s 304,000.  

The trade wars evidence for the recent deterioration comes in the form of comparisons between the major metals-using industries during the early months following the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum, and afterwards (when many Trump critics argue that the trade curbs’ impact began sinking in). As always, the impact of Mr. Trump’s levies on imports from China remain too diffused throughout the manufacturing sector – and too unevenly so – to be gauged reliably. For good measure, they’ve also been threatened and applied in a confusing, on-and-off manner, and the recent Phase One trade deal and announcement of follow-on negotiations looks unlikely to end much of the measurement uncertainty.

First, here are the data on employment changes in those metals-using sectors from April, 2018 (the first full month during which the tariffs were in effect) through last month. Figures for the U.S. private sector overall, manufacturing overall, and manufacturing’s durable goods super-sector (in which most of the main metals users are classified) are included for comparison’s sake. Keep in mind that the results for household appliances also reflect a separate set of tariffs for large household laundry machines that have been in place since February, 2018.

                                                  Old thru Nov      New thru Nov       Thru Dec

entire private sector:                +2.82 percent      +2.81 percent    +2.92 percent

overall manufacturing:            +1.83 percent      +1.84 percent    +1.75 percent

durable goods:                         +1.99 percent      +2.02 percent    +1.94 percent

fabricated metals products:     +1.51 percent       +1.45 percent   +0.96 percent

non-electrical machinery:       +1.26 percent       +1.56 percent   +1.37 percent

automotive vehicles & parts:   -0.45 percent        -0.73 percent    -0.81 percent

household appliances*:            not available        -5.84 percent     not available

aerospace products & parts*:  not available        +9.02 percent     not available

*data are one month behind

There’s no mistaking that net new hiring in the metals-using sectors has been slower than in the rest of manufacturing and the private sector. As is clear from the table below, that’s a substantial change from the early post-metals tariffs period (presented here as April, 2018 through December, 2018 and January, 2019), when most metals-users were leaders in boosting payrolls:

                                                                Thru December           Thru January

entire private sector:                                +1.36 percent            +1.60 percent

overall manufacturing:                            +1.39 percent            +1.49 percent

durable goods:                                         +1.72 percent            +1.97 percent

fabricated metals products:                     +1.57 percent            +1.78 percent

non-electrical machinery:                        +2.33 percent           +2.57 percent

automotive vehicles & parts:                   +1.07 percent           +1.15 percent

household appliances:                              -2.05 percent –           2.52 percent

aerospace products & parts:                    +5.47 percent           +5.87 percent

But what about the Boeing effect – which figures to be considerable given the major role played by the aircraft and aerospace giant not only in American industry but the entire economy? As the data below show, the impact of the company’s production slowdown and more recent suspension of the previously best-selling but flawed 737 Max model (not to mention worldwide groundings) is anything but clear-cut. Presented here are the job change figures for aircraft and related parts industries, along with the numbers for other major supplier industries and the usual comparison sectors for the eight months preceding and following the announcement of global 737 Max groundings last March. The latest available data for the aerospace-specific industries only go through November, so that’s the final month used for the entire table.

                                                 July, 2018 thru March           March thru Nov

entire private sector:                     +1.38 percent                    +1.03 percent

overall manufacturing:                 +0.98 percent                    +0.28 percent

durable goods:                              +1.17 percent                    +0.11 percent

fabricated metals products:          +0.89 percent                     -0.31 percent

non-electrical machinery:            +1.38 percent                     -1.16 percent

aerospace products & parts:        +4.34 percent                    +2.27 percent

aircraft:                                        +6.59 percent                    +2.09 percent

aircraft engines & engine parts:  +1.04 percent                    +3.67 percent

non-engine aircraft parts/equip: +3.06 percent                     +1.22 percent

The pattern seems to show employment slowdowns nearly across the board. But the two non-aerospace-specific supplier industries – fabricated metals and non-electrical machinery – saw net hiring increases turn into net hiring decreases. Moreover, in aircraft engines and engine parts, payroll improvements actually accelerated.

At least some of this apparent paradox might result from the November end date used here. Boeing didn’t decide to suspend outright production of the troubled model until December 16, and the decision won’t even go into effect until sometime this month. Indeed, the company initially announced that no layoffs were accompanying the halt, although significant workforce reduction plans were finally made public yesterday. In this vein, reports of actual supply chain employment effects didn’t begin appearing until mid-December. Moreover, it’s possible that employment pain has been felt by the non-aerospace-specific companies in Boeing’s vast domestic supply chain before it spread to the aerospace-related firms.

So the safest bottom line so far seems to be this: Contributors to manufacturing’s recent jobs slump might now include both trade war- and non trade war-related developments. And anyone singling out one or the other deserves considerable skepticism.

Glad I Didn’t Say That! The Epic Fail of Tariff Fear-Mongering

Tags

aluminum, China, consumer price index, consumers, core inflation, Glad I Didn't Say That!, inflation, manufacturing, metals, metals-using industries, Producer Price Index, steel, tariffs, Trade, trade war, Trump

“Trump’s trade war may soon hit consumers’ wallets and paychecks.”

–NBC News, July 18, 2018

“Tariffs will surely lead to higher prices for imported goods and, to a lesser extent, prices for non-imported goods that use imported materials.”

–Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, July 18, 2018

“Tariffs are about to hit consumers, and it won’t be pretty.”

–CNBC, July 25, 2018

“Trade restrictions, by their nature, result in price increases for the goods in question. If the price of steel and aluminum goes up, manufacturers will be forced to pass those costs onto American consumers.”

–The Heritage Foundation, March 2, 2018

U.S. core consumer price* index year on year, November: +0.1 percent

U.S. core producer price index** year on year, November: +0.5 percent

*commodities less food and energy

**final demand goods less food and energy

(Sources: “Trump’s trade war may soon hit consumers’ wallets and paychecks,” by Ben Popken, NBC News, July 18, 2018, https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-s-trade-war-may-soon-impact-consumers-wallets-paychecks-n890576: “Tariff Troubles: Will Consumers Feel the Pinch?” Public Policy, Knowledge@Wharton, Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, July 30, 2018, https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/trumps-tariffs-will-impact-average-consumer/; “Tariffs are about to hit consumers, and it won’t be pretty,” by Jeff Cox, CNBC, July 25, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/tariffs-are-about-to-hit-consumers-and-it-wont-be-pretty.html; “3 Reasons Why Trump’s Tariffs Would Hurt American Workers,” by Tori K. Smith and Jay Van Andel, Commentary, The Heritage Foundation, March 2, 2018, https://www.heritage.org/trade/commentary/3-reasons-why-trumps-tariffs-would-hurt-american-workers. All compiled in “Christmas Miracle: Rising Wages and Low Inflation Promise a Very Merry Holiday Season,” by John Carney, Breitbart.com, December 11, 2018, https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2019/12/11/low-inflation-christmas/. “Consumer Price Index – November 2019, USDL-19-2144, News Release, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, December 11, 2018, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf; and “Producer Price Indexes – November, 2019, USDL 19-2146, News Release, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, December 12, 2018, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf)

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing’s Recession Lengthens but Tariffs’ Role Stays Fuzzy

Tags

aluminum, China, Fed, Federal Reserve, industrial production, manufacturing, metals, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, real output, steel, tariffs, Trade, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The modest momentum showed by domestic manufacturing in the previous two Federal Reserve industrial production reports disappeared in this morning’s edition of the monthly survey, as overall real manufacturing output in July fell month-to-month (by 0.36 percent) for the first time since April. Worse, the new data lengthened domestic industry’s recession, with inflation-adjusted production now off by a hair (0.004 percent) since April, 2018 – a stretch much longer than the two straight quarters of cumulative decline that qualify as a downturn for most economists.

This morning’s Fed numbers also provide some additional evidence that President Trump’s tariff-centric trade policies have begun to erode manufacturing’s performance. But only some. Specifically, whereas in the first months following the imposition of metals tariffs in particular, metals-using sectors were handily beating the rest of manufacturing by every major metric, July’s industrial production numbers showed that their more recent relative performance continues to have been much more mixed.

As usual, nearly all of the best evidence concerns the impact of the tariffs on steel and aluminum, for reasons including their relatively long duration (April, 2018 was the first full month they were in place), and the ease with which metals-using sectors can be identified. And as usual, the table below presents the output data for these sectors since April, 2018, with the data for manufacturing overall used as a control group.

                                              April thru May      April thru June       April thru July

overall manufacturing:          -0.20 percent        +0.36 percent             0 percent

durables manufacturing:       +0.96 percent        +1.47 percent        +1.23 percent

fabricated metals products:  +1.34 percent         +1.89 percent        +0.95 percent

machinery:                            +0.86 percent        +0.57 percent         -0.57 percent

automotive:                           -1.88 percent         +0.60 percent        +0.43 percent

major appliances:                  -2.00 percent          -4.47 percent        -5.99 percent

aircraft and parts:                 +0.73 percent         +2.46 percent        +4.23 percent

These figures show that for three of the five major metals-using sectors tracked (fabricated metals products, machinery, and major appliances), constant dollar output has worsened compared with such production in manufacturing as a whole. Relative performance for automotive and aircraft and parts, however, has improved – as it has for the durable goods super-sector in which the metals users are located.

Keep in mind also that results for the major appliance sector also remain affected by a separate set of product-specific levies on large household laundry equipment that began in February, 2018.

In contrast with the metals tariffs, the first full month for China tariffs of any kind was August, 2018, and the set of goods involved was relatively small. Complicating matters further is the U.S. Trade Representative’s office’s practice of listing the dutied products according to a classification scheme that differs significantly from that used by the rest of the U.S. government to monitor most major indicators of economic performance – including industrial production.

And as previously noted, most of the Made in China products tariff-ed so far have been intermediate goods (parts, components, materials, etc.) whose use by American manufacturers varies widely. Therefore, the impact of tariffs on these products undoubtedly varies widely, too. Moreover, the number of Chinese goods facing tariffs has increased dramatically since last August. Not only were the levies extended to an additional $200 billion worth of such imports from China in late September, 2018, but these duties were raised from ten percent to 25 percent in May, 2019. (See this time-line for the specifics.)

All the same, here are results for a handful of sectors reasonably certain to have faced tariff pressure since last August. Each column measuring real output changes since last August.

                                         August thru May     August thru June     August thru July

overall manufacturing:     -1.09 percent            -0.55 percent           -0.90 percent

ball bearings:                    -2.20 percent            -2.46 percent           -2.27 percent

industrial heating equip:   -4.11 percent            -5.16 percent           -5.21 percent

farm machinery & equip: -7.51 percent            -6.53 percent           -6.91 percent

oil/gas drilling platform: +4.03 percent            +2.22 percent           -0.17 percent      parts

A greater percentage of these sectors (three of four) generated worse performance versus manufacturing overall than was the case for the metals-using sectors. But the sample size is so small, and the the uncertainties so considerable, that these more downbeat results should still be viewed with the utmost caution. Ditto for claims that the Trump tariffs are killing U.S. manufacturing.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Tariffs-Led Consumer Inflation Grows…from Non-Existent to Slight

Tags

aluminum, Bureau of Labor Statistics, China, consumer price inflation, consumer prices, core inflation, inflation, metals, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, steel, tariffs, Trade, tradewar, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

After a several-month lapse, I finally had a chance to review in detail the latest batch of official U.S. consumer price data, which came out yesterday. The big takeaway seems as follows: Whereas through April there was no evidence that President Trump’s tariffs per se were pushing up consumer prices, now there’s some. But the evidence certainly doesn’t paint a picture of the American shopper’s living standards tumbling steeply because of Mr. Trump’s various trade wars.

As usual, let’s examine the metals-using industries, since the Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum have been in place for a relatively long period (April, 2018 was their first full month) and for reasons to be explained below, because it’s much easier to identify these sectors than those presumably impacted by the China tariffs.

The table below presents the relevant figures for major metals-using industries sequentially for the latest data month (June), since the duties’ onset, and year-on-year for the two latest data months. In addition, the results for control groups (like for overall core inflation, and for foods sometimes packaged in metal cans in their fresh forms):

                             May-June        Since April, 2018       y/y May           y/y June

core inflation:   +0.22 percent      +2.39 percent        +1.99 percent   +2.13 percent

fresh fruits         -1.67 percent      +0.31 percent        +1.85 percent   +0.87 percent

  & vegs:

fresh fruits:        -2.06 percent      -2.85 percent         -0.95 percent     -1.85 percent

fresh vegs:         -1.24 percent     +4.10 percent        +5.20 percent    +4.09 percent

processed          +0.39 percent     +1.61 percent        +1.28 percent    +1.70 percent

  fruits & vegs

canned fruits:     -0.38 percent     +4.47 percent        +4.04 percent    +3.93 percent

& vegs

canned fruits:     -0.09 percent     +2.11 percent        +1.00 percent    +2.02 percent

canned vegs:     +1.26 percent     +6.04 percent        +5.49 percent    +5.28 percent

soups:                +0.26 percent     +2.59 percent        +0.37 percent    +0.30 percent

malt bevgs          -0.62 percent     +1.77 percent        +0.84 percent    +1.84 percent

  at home:

alcoholic bevgs  +0.20 percent     +1.34 percent        +2.17 percent    +1.46 percent

  away from hom:

non-frozen, non- -0.21 percent     +1.96 percent        +3.09 percent    +3.03 percent

  carbonated non-

  alcoholic rinks

carbted drinks:     -1.95 percent    +3.33 percent        +5.75 percent    +2.71 percent

  juices & non-     -0.96 percent    +2.49 percent        +4.16 percent    +2.86 percent

  alcoholic drinks

new cars/trucks:  +0.17 percent    +1.13 percent        -1.61 percent    +0.74 percent

motor vehicle      +0.07 percent    +2.60 percent       +1.94 percent    +1.91 percent

  parts:

appliances:          +0.21 percent    +2.93 percent       +2.43 percent    +2.56 percent

major                   -1.40 percent    +3.95 percent        +3.80 percent    +2.94 percent

  appliances:

laundry                -0.70 percent    +4.00 percent        -1.55 percent      -3.98 percent

  equipment:

non-electric         +0.73 percent –   4.07 percent        -5.22 percent      -1.94 percent

  cookware & tableware:

tools, hardware,   +0.06 percent   +0.12 percent       +0.88 percent     +1.22 percent

  outdoor equipment:

The most revealing comparison is that between the post-tariffs (April, 2018) rate of core inflation (which excludes the historically volatile categories of food and energy) and the inflation rates for the metals-using sectors. And they show that for the 15 metals-using industries tracked, prices rose faster than core inflation in ten – a sign of tariff-led price-hiking.

At the same time, as previously noted, the figures for three of these 10 groups – soups, carbonated drinks, and juices and non-alcoholic drinks – need to be viewed cautiously, because their packages are hardly restricted to metals. Thus my conclusion that the tariff effects have been modest.

And another interesting conclusion emerging from these statistics: the price of laundry equipment is dropping dramatically after surging following the imposition in February, 2018 of a separate set of levies on large household clothes washers and driers. These prices are still way up (by 13.75 percent) since the tariffs began. But the May and June data show unusually rapid price drops. And these decreases are much greater than the slight reduction in these tariffs that began this year.

As for the China tariffs, definitive conclusions remain difficult to draw for several reasons. Chiefly, the first full data month for the relevant duties (for consumer products) is only last October. The goods on the U.S. Trade Representative’s list for those levies are categorized with a classification system different from that used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in measuring inflation – so the match-ups are far from exact. And the scale of tariff price effects can differ dramatically from product to product because China’s presence in a particular market can vary so greatly.

Another complicating factor (though clearly trade war-related): Some of the China categories have also been affected by the metals tariffs (e.g., auto parts). Further, the appliance categories have been impacted by the separate household laundry equipment duties.

Nonetheless, here’s the China data for May-June, since last October, and year-on-year for this June and last June. As with the metals tariff table, they include figures for control categories like the core inflation rate:

                            May-June       Since Oct.    June y/y 2017-18     June y/y 2018-19

core inflation: +0.22 percent  +1.59 percent   +2.13 percent           +2.26 percent

food:                -0.02 percent   -0.12 percent   +1.43 percent           +1.91 percent

frozen/freeze-  -0.42 percent  +0.52 percent    -0.23 percent            -0.09 percent

  dried prepared foods:

fish/seafood:    -0.74 percent  +0.89 percent   +1.43 percent           +1.66 percent

processed fish/ -0.98 percent         0 percent   +0.39 percent            +2.13 percent

  seafood:

frozen fish/      -1.32 percent   -0.61 percent    -0.91 percent            +1.68 percent

  seafood:

fruits/vegs:      -1.24 percent   +0.03 percent   +0.25 percent             +1.04 percent

fresh fruits/    +1.67 percent    -0.63 percent   +0.62 percent             +0.87 percent

  vegetables:

fresh fruits:      -2.06 percent   -2.49 percent   +1.87 percent             -1.85 percent

fresh vegs:       -1.24 percent   +1.54 percent    -0.82 percent           +4.09 percent

processed        +0.39 percent   +2.49 percent    -1.04 percent           +1.70 percent

  fruits/vegs:

frozen fruits/   +1.84 percent   +0.54 percent    -3.88 percent           +0.24 percent

  vegetables:

non-carb/          -0.21 percent   +0.61 percent   -0.37 percent           +2.71 percent

  non-frozen juices/drinks:

personal care    -0.27 percent    -0.59 percent   -0.30 percent            -0.60 percent

  products:

household         -0.11 percent    +0.13 percent  -7.87 percent            -0.03 percent

  furnishings:

recreation         -0.34 percent     -2.49 percent   -8.22 percent           -5.60 percent

  goods:

men’s                -1.24 percent     -2.94 percent   -0.69 percent          +1.53 percent

  sportswear:

women’s           -2.01 percent     -1.25 percent   -1.33 percent           -0.03 percent

  sportswear

computers,        -1.91 percent    -4.09 percent    -3.70 percent          -5.86 percent

  peripherals, etc.:

window/floor    -1.19 percent    -5.03 percent   +0.43 percent          -2.75 percent

  coverings:

furniture &       +0.82 percent   +2.64 percent   +0.02 percent         +3.15 percent

  bedding:

appliances:       +0.21 percent     -0.37 percent  +1.15 percent         +2.56 percent

major                 -1.40 percent    +0.33 percent  +5.62 percent         +2.94 percent

  appliances:

laundry              -0.70 percent     -0.22 percent +13.12 percent         -3.98 percent

  equipment

misc                 +1.19 percent      -0.84 percent    -1.05 percent        +2.28 percent

  appliances:

non-electric      +0.73 percent      -2.78 percent    -2.64 percent         -1.94 percent

  cookware/tableware:

tools/                +0.06 percent     +1.27 percent    -0.74 percent          +1.06 percent

  hardware &

  outdoor equip:

household          -0.14 percent     +1.14 percent  +0.60 percent          +1.52 percent

  cleaning products:

televisions:        -1.23 percent    -14.25 percent  -19.09 percent        -19.65 percent

misc video         -1.98 percent      -1.19 percent    -2.53 percent          -2.17 percent

  equipment:

pets &               +0.08 percent     +2.72 percent   +0.67 percent         +2.84 percent

  pet products:

sporting           :+0.39 percent     +2.79 percent   +0.07 percent         + 0.66 percent

  goods:

photo equip       +0.24 percent     -2.04 percent    -6.29 percent          +2.72 percent

  & supplies:

sewing              +0.41 percent     +8.21 percent   +7.54 percent          +4.63 percent

  machines/

  fabrics:

motor               +0.14 percent      +2.09 percent   +0.29 percent          +1.91 percent

  vehicle parts:

tires:                 +0.15 percent     +2.09 percent     -1.56 percent          +2.03 percent

stationery/        +0.59 percent     +4.95 percent    +1.16 percent           -1.31 percent

  gift wrap:

Even given the above uncertainties, the bases for claims that the China levies are creating a tariff-mageddon for American consumers look awfully weak, though they’re not nonexistent. Chiefly, since the tariffs’ onset last October, only eight of the 30 affected products saw prices rising faster than core inflation.

At the same time, more product categories seem to be displaying such characteristics. This conclusion seems clear from the two sets of year-on-year statistics. Between June, 2017 and June, 2018, prices were stronger in only three of the 30 categories (including products for which prices were falling at a slower rate). Between the following Junes, their number grew to eight.

Similarly, forgetting about comparisons with the core, 23 of the 30 groups experienced higher inflation rates during the June, 2018-June, 2019 period (largely post-China tariffs) than during the June, 2017-June, 2018 period (entirely pre-China tariffs).

Of course, Mr. Trump’s trade policy, especially regarding China, has never been about economics alone. The administration has repeatedly emphasized that national security is at stake as well. But these new consumer price figures make clear that the economic costs paid by Americans have so far been meager. And especially with overall inflation so weak, they hardly look like reasons for the President to ease up on the trade front.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Fed Manufacturing Figures Nudge Tariffmageddon a Bit Further Away

Tags

aluminum, China, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, metals, metals tariffs, metals-using industries, real growth, steel, tariffs, Trade, trade war, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s industrial production figures from the Federal Reserve showed not only that U.S. domestic manufacturing regained some strength in May following a string of poor monthly results. They also provided more evidence that President Trump’s tariffs have had little, if any, effect on the performance of either the metals-using industries impacted by levies on steel and aluminum imports, or of sectors supposedly affected by China-related duties.

Two more points come through pretty loud and clear from the new figures on domestic industry’s inflation-adjusted growth. First, the weakness displayed in April by manufacturing as a whole and by metals-using sectors could well have been confined to that month. Second, the safety problems revealed in the Boeing Company’s aircraft have begun to influence the picture and may distort the readings for several more months.

The overall readings for manufacturing were mildly encouraging, with the 0.22 percent sequential rise in real output representing domestic industry’s best reading since December’s 0.64 percent improvement. Revisions were ever so slightly positive.

Most of the leading metals-using industries – where the role played by tariffs is relatively easy to identify – fared better in May than in April, too, as the following table shows. The columns show the changes in after-inflation output for these sectors starting with April, 2018 (the first full month the metals levies went into effect) and each of the last three data months of this year. And as usual, the numbers for manufacturing overall are used as a control group.

                                             April thru March   April thru April   April thru May

overall manufacturing:          +0.45 percent        -0.07 percent      +0.89 percent

durables manufacturing:       +1.34 percent       +0.68 percent      +0.98 percent

fabricated metals products:   +2.76 percent      +1.88 percent       +1.73 percent

machinery:                            +2.31 percent       -0.12 percent       +0.11 percent

automotive:                            -3.10 percent       -3.86 percent        -1.55 percent

major appliances:                   -5.27 percent       -8.24 percent        -3.27 percent

aircraft and parts:                  +5.75 percent      +3.34 percent       +1.15 percent

durable mfg ex-automotive: +2.10 percent       +1.48 percent       +1.41 percent

In general, it’s clear that the metals-using industries are still losing growth momentum versus the rest of manufacturing. But do the duties deserve all or even much of the blame? If so, then why did so many of these sectors turn in better growth numbers in May than in April – especially automotive and major appliances? The latter’s relative comeback is especially striking, given that it’s been experiencing not only metals tariffs, but separate levies on large household laundry equipment and a weakness in U.S. housing. Ditto for automotive, where output has been highly volatile for many months.

The Boeing effect is apparent, too, from the falling output numbers since March, when safety problems started generating grounding decisions and airspace national airspace bans for its widely used 737 Max models. Further, both automotive and aerospace are major users of machinery and fabricated metals products.

The impact of the tariffs on products from China remains much more of a puzzle, and for the same reasons that have been apparent since their onset, in August, 2018. They have covered thousands of products, most of which so far have been intermediate goods, and their role as these kinds of inputs for manufacturing industries varies dramatically from final product to final product. In addition, Washington uses different manufacturing classification systems for designating the tariff-ed products and for measuring manufacturing production. The levies have been in place for a shorter period of time than the metals duties. And their scope has widened since the first batch went into effect in August, along with many rates having changed.

Nonetheless, here are some figures for the handful of industries for which I’m sure the numbers create a reasonably accurate picture, with each column measuring real output changes since last August.

                                        August thru March   August thru April   August thru May

overall manufacturing:       -0.45 percent           -0.96 percent         -0.75 percent

ball bearings:                     +0.22 percent          +0.11 percent        +0.01 percent

industrial heating equip:     -0.83 percent          -5.41 percent          -4.70 percent

farm machinery & equip: -11.65 percent         -10.27 percent         -7.51 percent

oil/gas drilling platform    +4.08 percent          +2.58 percent         +4.59 percent

   parts

Unfortunately, no consistent trend emerges. Two of the sectors’ improved between March and May (farm machinery and equipment, and oil and gas drilling platform parts), and two worsened (ball bearings and industrial heating equipment).

And although as long as the China tariffs continue , the future will provide results over a more statistically significant time frame, because the footprint of Chinese inputs in most of U.S. Manufacturing sectors will continue to be so broad and deep, their costs are likely to remain just as hard to discern.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Tariffs-Led Wholesale Price Inflation Going, Going….

Tags

aluminum, China, inflation, metals, metals-using industries, Producer Price Index, steel, tariffs, Trade, trade war, Trump, wholesale prices, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Amid all the recent trade policy-related news, I’ve struggled (unsuccessfully) to keep up with the U.S. inflation data, but kept my nose to the grindstone this week and have now managed to scrutinize the new producer price figures (for May) in detail. These Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures contain unmistakable signs that whatever tariff-led inflation had begun to be generated in the American wholesale sector has been dramatically dissipating lately – which no doubt has much to do with continuingly weakening core inflation on the consumer side.

As usual, let’s start with the impact of President Trumps metals tariffs, which have lasted the longest (their first full month was April, 2018), and it’s easiest to identify the industries affected, since steel and aluminum-heavy sectors are pretty obvious (along with the metals themselves), and since we’re not dealing with the dependency on metals from any one trade competitor.

And a special bonus: It’s with steel and aluminum prices per se that the loss of any inflationary momentum comes through most clearly. Specifically, after rising 12.37 percent between April and their most recent (September) peak, prices for steel mill shapes fell 6.44 percent through May. As a result, they’re now 5.14 percent higher than during their first tariffs month. In their control group (the processed goods minus foods and feeds – or “core” – super-category) prices rose by 3.41 percent from April through their peak (in October), and have since declined by 2.62 percent. Consequently, they’re now 0.70 percent higher than during the first metals tariffs month.

So although in absolute terms, steel prices remain higher than those in their super-category, they peaked earlier and have come down faster.

Aluminum prices have been much weaker for much longer. After rising by 6.66 percent between April and their (latest) June peak, aluminum mill shapes prices are down by 6.53 percent. As a result, they’re now actually 0.30 percent lower than during their first full tariffs month.

Significantly, signs of markedly decelerating inflation are just as evident in numerous metals-using manufacturing sectors. In past posts on producer price trends, I looked first at industries where price increases since the metals tariffs onset had initially been faster than that for their super-category – final demand goods minus food and energy products.

The table below makes plain that a sizable, widespread slowdown has taken place. The columns show the percentage price changes between April and whichever month saw such prices hit their latest peak; and such changes for such goods since January. In every instance, the percentage changes for the latter have been much smaller than for the former. And in the cases of mining machinery and equipment and construction machinery and equipment, the slowdowns were more dramatic even than that for the super-category (which was awfully dramatic).

                                                               April to peak (month)          Since Jan.

Final demand less food and energy:       +1.73 (May, 2019)              +0.17

pumps/compressors:                               +3.82 (May, 2019)              +0.57

mining mach & equipment:                    +7.52 (April, 2019)            +0.03

construction machinery & equipment:   +5.75 (April, 2019)            +0.04

metal-forming machine tools:                +3.77 (Feb.,2019)              +0.77

But it would be reasonable to counter that four manufacturing sectors are too few to show anything conclusively. So here are results for nine more whose early inflation numbers were stronger than that of the core final demand super-category. Every single one has experienced an inflation slowdown since January, and except for railroad equipment and possibly oil and gas field machinery, all involved several orders of magnitude.

                                                                  April to peak (month)       Since Jan.

agricultural machinery & equipment:        +4.18 (April, 2019)          +0.04

tools, dies, jigs, fixtures, molds:                +2.82 (Feb., 2019)           +0.51

industrial material handling equipment:    +3.83 (May, 2019)          +0.22

oil and gas field machinery:                      +1.99 (March, 2019)       +1.01

household appliances:                               +4.53 (Feb., 2019)          +1.39

lawn & garden equipment:                        +2.19 (May, 2019)          +0.13

truck trailers:                                             +6.96 (May, 2019)          +0.81

aircraft:                                                      +2.20 (May, 2019)         +0.52

railroad equipment                                    +2.76 (March, 2019)      +2.67

For good measure, a slowdown is also occurring for metals-using industries where price increases have been relatively weak since the metals tariffs were imposed, as apparent from the table below: 

                                                                 April to peak (month)    Since Jan.

metal-cutting machine tools:                     +1.75 (May, 2019)        +0.69 

passenger cars:                                          +1.20 (Oct., 2018)         -0.30

heavy trucks:                                             +1.22 (Jan., 2019)           0.00

light trucks:                                                +2.43 (Nov., 2018)       -1.72

motor vehicle parts:                                   +0.71 (April, 2019)      +0.31

travel trailers & campers:                          +2.24 (March, 2018)    +0.42

Switch over to “intermediate demand” goods and you find a broad-based, often dramatic inflation deceleration as well – even though price increases in this super-category have accelerated!

                                                                 April to peak (month)    Since Jan.

core intermediate demand:                       +1.11 (May, 2019)         +1.26

metal containers:                                      +5.01 (May, 2019)         +2.95

fab wire products:                                  +11.49 (March, 2019)     +0.23

non-fluid power valves:                          + 4.01 (May, 2019)        +0.98

bolts, nuts, screws, rivets, washers:        +7.98 (April, 2019)        -0.43

fabricated structural metals products:     +5.10 (May, 2019)        +2.18

hardware:                                                 +5.10 (May, 2019)       +0.49

heating equipment:                                  +6.99 (May, 2019)       +1.85

fluid power equipment:                           +4.54 (May, 2019)       +1.33

mechanical power transmission equip:   +3.73 (May, 2019)      +0.40

A/C & refrigeration equip:                     +4.16 (April, 2019)     +1.37

ball and roller bearings:                          +5.85 (March, 2019)   +2.96

The first Trump China tariffs weren’t imposed until early July, so the sample size is smaller. And as previously noted, it’s relatively difficult identifying their precise effects because the list of tariff-ed sectors uses an industry classification system different from that used by BLS to monitor price changes, and the China content of these products can vary significantly. In addition, the group of tariff-ed goods have grown since then, the level of levies differs widely, and the original duties for many have been increased (not to mention the suspension of this major increase for several months earlier this year.  For the exact phases of the U.S.-China trade war until the latest – May 10 – Trump tariff increase, see here.).

But on this policy front, too, the exact same recent wholesale inflation slowdown is apparent as documented above for metals and metals-using industries. And for goods in the core intermediate demand super-category, the China tariff-affected goods have also seen produce price inflation slow as price inflation for the super-category has sped up. The only exceptions are the transformer category (where the inflation levels have been very low in absolute terms and the speed-up marginal) and possibly the oil and gas field machinery sector (where the monthly inflation rates for the two periods seem to be about the same_. Here, again, are the results for the entire August, 2018-May, 2019 period (covering the full duration of the China tariffs in toto), and for the post-January period.

                                                                              Aug.-May            Since Jan.

core intermediate demand goods:                     -1.85 percent       +1.26 percent

aircraft engines and engine parts:                    +1.32 percent       +0.35 percent

ball bearings:                                                   +4.23 percent       +2.96 percent

electric generators:                                          +2.41 percent       +0.18 percent

medical, surgical & personal aid devices:      +0.94 percent         -0.05 percent

core commodity final demand:                      +1.12 percent          0.00 percent

industrial heating equipment:                        +3.50 percent        +1.85 percent

oil and gas drilling platform parts:                +1.84 percent        +1.01 percent

farm machinery and equipment:                   +2.29 percent           0.00 percent

paper-making machinery:                             +2.92 percent         +0.88 percent

electricity transformers:                                +0.61 percent         +0.70 percent

X-ray and electro-medical equipment:         +0.35 percent          +0.12 percent

It might be an exaggeration to say “If you blinked, you missed tariffs-led inflation in the wholesale economy.” But as the above figures make clear, for now, it’s not much of an exaggeration.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Are Trump’s Metals Tariffs Starting to Backfire?

Tags

aluminum, China, Jobs, manufacturing, metals, metals-using industries, steel, tariffs, Trade, trade war, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Friday’s monthly U.S. jobs report (covering April) not only included the third straight month of weak manufacturing employment gains. It contained the first notable evidence that President Trump’s tariffs (at least on imports of steel and aluminum) contributed to a payroll slowdown.

Industry created only 4,000 new jobs sequentially in April. The February and March revisions were positive (the latter from an increase of 1,000 to 8,000, and the latter from a decrease of 6,000 to no change. But these single-digit (at best) results represented manufacturing’s poorest three-month employment performance stretch (producing a cumulative net gain of 12,000 since January) since the September-December, 2016 period (when the increase was 11,000).

At least as important, the greatest weakness came in those manufacturing sectors that most heavily use the metals for which tariffs have been imposed by Mr. Trump since April, 2018. Whereas until the April, 2019 data, these industries (the main ones are listed in the table below) were generally creating jobs at a faster pace than less metals-reliant manufacturing sectors and even the private sector economy overall, that out-performance came to an end for the industries where April figures are available.

                                                 Old thru March      New thru March      Thru April

entire private sector:                +1.78 percent          +1.79 percent      +1.98 percent

overall manufacturing:            +1.48 percent          +1.58 percent      +1.61 percent

durable goods:                         +1.85 percent          +1.92 percent      +1.92 percent

fabricated metals products:     +1.60 percent          +1.82 percent      +1.80 percent

non-electrical machinery:       +2.76 percent          +2.68 percent      +2.44 percent

automotive vehicles & parts:  +0.40 percent          +0.42 percent     +0.27 percent

household appliances:              not available           -4.10 percent      not available

aerospace products & parts:     not available          +6.56 percent      not available

In other words, as the private sector and manufacturing in general both generated greater employment increases in April than in March (the latter just barely), the metals-using sectors’ April gains were smaller than March’s, and the durable goods super-sector in which they’re all found could only match its March jobs improvement rate.

Further, one point to bear in mind about the numbers for household appliances. This sector includes the large household laundry machines that saw a separate set of tariffs imposed starting in February, 2018.

As usual, the impact of the President’s tariffs on products made in China are more difficult to judge for at least four reasons. First, an enormous number of manufacturing industries use Chinese inputs – and to greatly varying extents. Second, these levies only began in July, and then on a relatively small scale. Third, the list of products tariff-ed beginning in July matches up imperfectly at best with the sectoral classification scheme used by the Labor Department to track manufacturing employment. And fourth, most of the affected products are found in relatively narrow categories of manufactures, where the jobs data is one month behind.

To muddy the waters further, in late February, the President decided to suspend an increase slated to go into effect March 1 on tariffs that began in late September on $200 billion in imports from China. His stated reason: progress in the bilateral trade talks. The levies were to rise from 10 percent to 25 percent.

This morning, however, came another apparent about-face: Mr. Trump announced that the tariff hike suspension would end this coming Friday, and that 25 percent tariffs would go into effect on the remaining $325 billion worth of imports from China “shortly.”

So with all those provisos, here are the latest available employment statistics for some major manufacturing sectors that use the Chinese parts, components, and materials that have been slapped with tariffs since July. As far as I can tell, no clear trend jumps out.

                                July-Feb     Old July-March    New July-March    July-April

private sector:     +1.11 percent   +1.24 percent      +1.25 percent     +1.44 percent

overall mfg:        +1.00 percent   +0.90 percent      +1.00 percent     +1.03 percent

aircraft engines   +0.93 percent    not available       +1.39 percent      not available

  & engine parts:

industrial            +2.46 percent    not available       +2.46 percent      not available 

  heating equip:

oil & gas            +5.83 percent    not available       + 6.11 percent     not available

  drilling platform parts:

farm mach         +1.67 percent     not available       +0.33 percent     not available

   & equipment:

ball bearings:    +1.82 percent     not available       +1.42 percent      not available

Anyone seeking to evaluate the economic effects of the Trump tariffs in a serious manner should recognize that a useful verdict may not be visible for years. But all trends (and their reversals) begin at specific points in time. Further, until the release of the April jobs numbers, tariff supporters could easily demonstrate that the apocalyptic predictions of tariff opponents had not yet come close to appearing. At least for now, that particular case has become somewhat harder to make.