The onset of top-level U.S.-China trade talks in Beijing roughly coincided with the release of the March monthly U.S. trade figures, which showed that the monthly American merchandise deficit fell to its lowest level ($25.88 billion) since the previous April ($27.63 billion). Nonetheless, this new figure was the second biggest such total for March on record, behind 2015’s $31.24 billion. In addition, the U.S. goods deficit with China is still running 15.52 percent ahead of 2017’s record yearly rate.
Partly as a result of the China improvement, the combined U.S. goods and services trade shortfall in March plunged to its lowest monthly level ($49.86 billion) since last September’s $45.30 billion. And the sequential decline of 15.22 percent was the biggest since the 17.47 percent plunge in March, 2016. March’s totals for combined U.S. exports, goods exports, and high tech goods exports were all monthly records ($208.53 billion, $140.88 billion, and $34.85 billion, respectively). The all-time high in total exports was the third monthly record in the last four months. And the sequential high tech goods gain was a new all-time best (33.95 percent) even for this volatile category.
America’s merchandise trade with Canada racked up its largest monthly surplus on record ($306.1 million), but the U.S. goods deficit with its other NAFTA trade partner, Mexico, jumped to its biggest monthly total ever ($8.05 billion). Amid trans-Atlantic wrangling over American metals tariffs, new monthly records were also set for U.S. goods exports to and imports from the European Union ($29.85 billion and $41.99 billion, respectively), while the March U.S. goods export figure for South Korea was also the best on record ($5.09 billion).
America’s huge and chronic manufacturing trade deficit rose from $73.21 billion in February to $74.53 billion in March, and stayed on course to exceed $1 trillion this year. The March figure also showed that the drag on the current economic recovery from the growth of the Made in Washington trade deficit – that portion of U.S. trade flows most heavily influenced by trade deals and other trade policy decisions – dipped from 18.37 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of last year (or $538.38 billion in constant dollars) to 17.66 percent ($535.09 billion in constant dollars) in the first quarter of this year.
Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (March) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:
>As a top-level Trump administration delegation arrived in Beijing for possibly contentious trade talks with China, the Census Bureau reported that the massive American goods deficit with the PRC – whose reduction is a leading on the U.S. goal – fell in March by 11.57 percent to its lowest level ($25.87 billion) since the previous April ($27.63 billion).
>At the same time, because U.S.-China goods trade is strongly influenced by seasonal factors, it was also noteworthy that this new March total was the second highest of all time – behind only 2015’s $31.24 billion.
>In addition, even this latest improvement left the bilateral merchandise shortfall running 15.52 percent ahead of last year’s rate, which produced an annual record of $375.23 billion.
>American goods exports to China jumped by 26.27 percent sequentially in March – the biggest such increase since the 32.70 percent advance in October, 2016 – to reach $12.38 billion.
>U.S. goods imports from China fell sequentially in March for the second straight month, to $38.26 billion. That total was the lowest monthly figure since last May’s $41.80 billion.
>The monthly improvement in goods trade with China helped push the combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit down 15.22 percent sequentially, from an upwardly adjusted $57.74 billion in February to $48.96 billion. The February figure was the highest since October, 2008.
>The monthly drop, moreover, was the biggest since March, 2016’s 17.47 percent.
>U.S. total exports hit a new record in March, with the $208.53 billion figure standing 2.04 percent higher than February’s downwardly revised figure of $204.35 billion. In addition, this was the third all-time monthly total export high achieved in the last four months.
>America’s merchandise exports reached an all-time high in March as well, rising 2.37 percent from February’s downwardly revised $137.13 billion to $140.88 billion.
>Another monthly trade best: high tech goods exports. At $34.85 billion, they were 33.95 percent higher than February’s $26.02 billion. High tech goods trade numbers tend to be volatile, but this advance was the greatest on record.
>Largely as a result, the high tech goods trade deficit sank 23.04 percent on month, from $7.93 billion to $6.11 billion – the second straight post-May, 2017 low.
>High tech imports soared on month in March, too – by 20.64 percent, to $40.96 billion. That was the biggest such increase since last March’s 24.58 percent. And the total was the biggest ever for a March.
>The high tech goods deficit is running fully 33.89 percent ahead of last year’s rate – which resulted in the biggest such shortfall on record.
>U.S. merchandise trade with Canada reached its own milestone in March – the biggest monthly American surplus of all time ($306.1 million). In February, the United States ran a deficit of $404.2 million.
>American goods exports to Canada surged by 15.26 percent on month in March, to $27.10 billion. That was the highest monthly total since October, 2014’s $28.39 billion.
>U.S. goods imports from Canada rose robustly, too – by 12.04 percent, to $26.80 billion. That was their highest monthly total since June, 2015’s $27.34 billion.
>The U.S. merchandise deficit with Canada is running 44.72 percent behind last year’s rate.
>The March trade picture for America’s other NAFTA partner, Mexico, was strikingly different. The U.S. goods deficit of $8.05 billion set a new monthly record.
>U.S. merchandise exports to Mexico rose by 8.31 percent on month, to $21.91 billion (the third highest total on record). But merchandise imports climbed by 13.96 percent, to a new record $29.96 billion.
>The merchandise deficit with Mexico is running 9.01 percent ahead of last year’s pace, which at $71.06 billion was the second highest annual total ever (after 2007’s $74.80 billion).
>Amid continued feuding between the United States and the European Union (EU), America’s merchandise trade deficit with the grouping inched up by 0.82 percent on month in March, from $12.05 billion to $12.15 billion.
>Though this total was far from an all-time high, both U.S. goods exports to and imports from the EU set new monthly records in March – $29.85 billion and $41.99 billion, respectively.
>The 19.51 percent percent monthly export increase was the biggest since March, 2011’s 22.51 percent.
>America’s goods deficit with the EU is running 17.71 percent ahead of last year’s rate, which resulted in the second highest annual figure ever ($151.42 billion, with the record being 2015’s $155.66 billion).
>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit with South Korea soared by 58.61 percent on month in March, to $1.08 billion. But this total was at the low end of the recent range. Moreover, in February, the goods shortfall cratered by 65.28 percent.
>The immense and longstanding American manufacturing trade deficit 73.21 to 74.53
>More notably, American goods exports to South Korea climbed to $5.09 billion – a new all-time high. Further, the 18.53 percent sequential advance was the fastest monthly rate of increase since the previous March’s 22.04 percent.
>U.S. merchandise imports from South Korea rose even faster on month in March – by 23.96 percent, to $6.17 billion. That increase, however, followed a 12.05 percent monthly decrease, repeating a roller-coaster pattern that has been typical for the first quarter of the year.
>Nonetheless, the year-on-year shrinkage of the U.S. merchandise trade gap with South Korea has been impressive – 64.30 percent.
>Volatility has also marked the immense and longstanding U.S. manufacturing trade deficit. After sinking dramatically in February from January’s $86.62 billion (the second highest monthly total on record, following last October’s $88.98 billion), the shortfall rebounded by 1.80 percent – from $73.21 billion to $74.53 billion.
>Manufactures exports increased robustly on month, by 18.56 percent, to $10.5.35 billion. But the far greater amount of manufactures imports rose by 10.99 percent, to $179.88 billion.
>This manufacturing trade gap is now running 13.87 percent ahead of last year’s pace – which produced a record total $927.48 billion annual total.
>As a result, if current trends continue, the manufacturing trade shortfall will top $1 trillion this year.
>The March trade figures permit calculation of the drag exerted as of the first quarter of 2018 on the current American economic recovery of the growth of the Made in Washington trade deficit. This consists of the trade flows, adjusted for inflation, that are most heavily influenced by U.S. trade agreements and similar trade policy decisions – i.e., the nation’s non-oil goods trade.
>As of the fourth quarter of last year, this trade drag had reduced cumulative recovery growth by 18.37 percent, or $538.38 billion in constant dollars.
>In the first quarter of this year, the drag was lower – 17.66 percent, or $535.09 billion in constant dollars.