(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Job Creation Gains More Momentum

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aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, automotive, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Employment, Federal Reserve, furniture, inflation, Jobs, machinery, manufacturing, miscellaneous durable goods, non-farm payrolls, personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, plastics and rubber products, PPE, recession, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, supply chains, transportation equipment, Ukraine-Russia war, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s official April U.S. jobs report featured such a strong showing by U.S.-based manufacturers that, by one measure, they reclaimed title of America’s best job-creating sector during the CCP Virus era (and its aftermath?).

Domestic industry boosted its payrolls sequentially last month by 55,000 workers, its best such performance since July’s 62,000 gain. In addition, revisions were excellent. March’s initially reported 38,000 increase is now pegged at 43,000, and February’s upgraded 38,000 rise is now judged to have been 50,000.

As a result, manufacturing’s share of U.S. non-farm employment (the federal government’s definition of the American jobs universe), has improved from 8.38 percent in February, 2020 – the last full data month before the virus began roiling the national economy – to 8.41 percent as of last month.

And during this period, manufacturing’s share of America’s private sector jobs is up from 9.83 percent to 9.86 percent.

Domestic industry has recovered a slightly smaller share of the jobs it lost during the sharp pandemic-induced downturn of spring, 2020 (95.89 percent) than the private sector (97.62 percent). But it also shed fewer jobs proportionately than the rest of the private sector during that terrible March and April. (For the record, because of a drag created by public sector hiring, the share of all non-farm jobs regaine d now stands at 94.59 percent.

In all, U.S.-based manufacturing employment is now down a mere 0.44 percent from immediate pre-pandemic-y February, 2020.

April’s manufacturing jobs winners were broad-based, but the biggest among the major sectors tracked by the Labor Department were:

>transportation equipment, whose 13,700 employment improvement was its best such performance since last October’s 28,200. (Last month I erroneously reported that the sector’s best recent monthly performance was last August’s 19,000.) Unfortunately, March’s initially reported employment advance of 10,800 was revised down to 8,800, and February’s previously estimated 19,800 jobs plunge (the worst monthly performance since April, 2021’s automotive shutdown-produced nosedive of 48,100) is now judged to be 19,900. Bottom line: This sector’s employment levels are still 3.38 percent below those of that last full pre-pandemic data month of February, 2020;

>machinery, where 7,400 jobs were added on month – an especially encouraging result since its products are so widely used throughout the rest of manufacturing and the entire economy. Even better, March’s initially reported 1,700 employment increase was revised all the way up to 6,700, and February’s perfomance – which had been revised down from an 8,300 rise to one of 6,600, recovered a bit to 6,700. As a result, machinery employment is off just 1.55 percent from its February, 2020 levels;

>automotive, which boosted headcounts by 6,400 – its best monthly gain since last October’s 34,200 plant reopening-driven burst. But March’s initially reported 6,400 jobs rise was downgraded to 3,600, and even though February’s major job losses were revised for the better again, they’re still pegged at 14,000 – the worst since the 49,100 employees shed during the shutdowns last April. These gyrations have left the combined vehicles and parts workforce 0.78 pecent smaller than in February, 2020;

>plastics and rubber products, which upped employmment by 5,700 sequentially in April, the best such performance since last August’s 7,800. Job-wise, these sectors are now 3.38 percent larger than in February, 2020.

The only significant jobs losers in April were furniture and related products and miscellaneous durable goods. The former lost 1,100 positions in April, but employment has still inched up by 0.57 percent since pre-pandemic-y February, 2020. The latter – which includes much of the protective gear needed to fight and contain the CCP Virus – reduced employment by 1,400 sequentially last month. But this decrease was the first since last August’s 600 loss, and followed a strong 3,100 jobs gain in March. This catch-all category’s employment is now 1.54 percent higher than in February, 2020.

As always, the most detailed employment data for pandemic-related industries are one month behind those in the broader categories, and as with the rest of domestic industry for March, their employment picture showed improvement overall.

The semiconductor and related devices sector is still struggling to meet demand, but hiring continued its slow-but-steady pandemic-era increase in March with job gains of 700. February’s initially reported 100 employment loss now stands at a 100 employment gain, and January’s numbers stayed at plus-300 – the best monthly performance since last October’s 1,000. This sector now employs 1.34 percent more workers than in February, 2020 – impressive since during the sharp spring, 2020 economic downturn, it kept adding jobs.

The latest employment results were mixed for surgical appliances and supplies makers – a category within the aforementioned miscellaneous durable goods sector, and one in which personal protective equipment and similar medical goods abound. In March, the industry added 1,100 workers, but revisions completely wiped out February’s initially reported 800 jobs gain. The January hiring increase stayed at a downwardly revised 1,300. Even so, since just beforet the pandemic’s arrival in force in the United States, these companies have increased payrolls by 4.07 percent.

The very big pharmaceuticals and medicines industry continued to be a moderate employment winner in March. It hired an additional 900 workers on month, and though its February improvement was downgraded (from 1,300 to 1,000), the number was solid. Moreover, January’s hugely upgraded 1,100 employment rise stayed intact. Since February, 2020, this sector’s headcount is up fully 9.23 percent.

March jobs gains were more subdued in the medicines subsector containing vaccines, but they still totaled 400. February’s initially reported employment increase of 800 is estimated at just 500 now, and January’s identical increase stayed the same. But over time, this industry’s jobs growth has been impressive – 23.15 percent since the last pre-pandemic data month of February, 2020.

Good job gains continued in March in the aviation cluster as well. Aircraft manufacturers (including still-troubled industry giant Boeing) rose by 1,100 sequentially – the best monthly gain since last June’s 4,400. February’s increase was upgraded from 500 to 600, but January’s sequential job loss stayed unrevised at 800. This net increase brought aircraft employment to within 11.08 percent of its February, 2020 level.

The aircraft engines and engine parts industry followed February’s unrevised 900 hiring increase by adding 500 more workers in March. January’s results, however, stayed at a slightly downgraded 900 loss. And these companies’ still employ 12.65 percent fewer workers than in February, 2020.

The deep jobs depression in the non-engine aircraft parts and equipment sector remained deep in March, but a little less so. Jobs gains for the month totaled 700, February’s initially reported 200 increase was unrevised, and January’s way upwardly revised job rise was downgraded only from 1,500 to 1,400. But since just before the pandemic, the non-engine aircraft parts and equipment sector has still shrunk by 15.74 percent.

Having recently navigated its way skillfully through a once-in-a-century pandemic, a virtual shutdown of the entire U.S. economy, continuing supply chain disruption, multi-decade high inflation, a major war in Europe (so far), former export champ Boeing’s woes, and sluggish-at-best growth in much of the foreign markets it relies on heavily, it’s tempting to say that U.S-based manufacturing will have finally met its match if the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting campaign dramatically slows growth domestically — or worse.  But since the pandemic began, the next time the manufacturing pessimists are right will be the first.       

 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: An Omicron Bump in the US Manufacturing Recovery

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aircraft, aircraft parts, automotive, CCP Virus, chemicals, coronavirus, COVID 19, facemasks, Federal Reserve, machinery, manufacturing, masks, medical devices, miscellaneous durable goods, monetary policy, non-metallic mineral products, Omicron variant, personal protective equipment, petroleum and coal products, pharmaceuticals, plastics and rubber products, PPE, printing, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, stimulus, ventilators, wood products, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The big takeaway from today’s Federal Reserve after-inflation U.S. manufacturing data (for December) is that it may show domestic starting to suffer from the arrival into America of the super-infectious Omicron strain of the CCP Virus and the renewed economic curbs and behavioral changes it’s spurring, along with the spread of vaccine mandates in the ranks of U.S. businesses (of course, before yesterday’s Supreme Court decision striking down such policies for the private sector).

And especially discouraging: Just as Omicron began taking off, inflation-adjusted domestic output of medical equipment and supplies – including all the protective gear and treatment devices needed to fight the virus – fell sequentially at its fastest rate since the worst of the spring, 2020 pandemic-induced depression. Indeed, monthly real production in this category is now lower than in February, 2020 – the last full data month before the virus’ first variant began distorting the U.S. economy.

December’s 0.28 percent monthly decline in price-adjusted American manufacturing output represented industry’s first sequential retreat since September’s (hurricanes-affected) 0.52 percent drop. But the solid growth of recent months stayed largely unrevised.

The December results (which will remain preliminary for several more months) brought 2021’s yearly improvement in inflation-adjusted manufacturing output to 3.71 percent. That’s the best growth since 2011’s 6.48 percent, but as known by RealityChek regulars, it’s important to look at possible baseline effects nowadays. And this strong performance in part reflected the virus-fostered 1.94 percent fall-off in such growth in 2020.

The December downturn stemmed in part from problems (like the global semiconductor shortage) in the automotive sector, which shrank on month by 1.29 percent – following sequential expansion in November of a downwardly revised 1.69 percent. But even without the drag from vehicles and parts, domestic industry’s constant dollar production would still have been off by 0.22 percent.

Aside from automotive, the most important December real manufacturing growth loser by far was miscellaneous durable goods – a category that includes those pandemic-fighting essential medical devices and equipment industries. Its price-adjusted output slumped by 2.68 percent – the biggest downturn since April, 2020’s18.43 percent, during the worst of the CCP Virus’ first wave. Even so, measured by real production, the sector is 2.49 percent larger than in February, 2020, right before the pandemic’s initial major economic impact.

Other big December losers included:

>printing and related support activities, whose 1.82 percent slide was also the worst since April, 2020 (23.94 percent), and whose real output is now down by 5.14 percent since February, 2020;

>plastics and rubber products, whose 1.78 percent decrease was the worst since April, 2020 as well (19.12 percent), but that also followed seven months of strong gains. As a result, its real production is off just 1.08 percent since February, 2020; and

>petroleum and coal products, whose 1.58 percent fall-off was its worst since February’s seven percent, and whose after-inflation production is 4.49 percent lower than in February, 2020.

The biggest December winners were:

>non-metallic mineral products, which not only generated a 1.49 percent increase, but whose November inflation-adjusted output advance was revised all the way up from 1.25 percent to 3.03 percent. All the same, this sector’s constant-dollar production is still 1.32 percent lower than in February, 2020;

>wood products, whose 1.18 percent real increase in production was its best since March’s 4.05 percent, and which is now 3.03 percent bigger by this measure since February, 2020;

>the big chemicals sector, where real growth hit 0.69 percent following an upwardly revised 0.65 percent in November (from 0.50 percent), and which has grown by 7.93 percent in real terms since just before the pandemic; and – most encouragingly –

>machinery, a manufacturing bellwether because its products are so widely used throughout both industry and big non-manufacturing sectors like construction and agriculture – not to mention many services sectors. Its price-adjusted output increased by 0.68 percent sequentially in December – its best such result since July’s 2.85 percent, and revisions were unchanged on balance. Machinery production is now 5.20 percent higher than in February, 2020.

As for manufacturing industries that have been prominent in the news during the pandemic, they had a lousy December generally.

Aircraft and parts saw its monthly output down by 0.38 percent, and in stunning news, November’s initially reported 1.90 percent increase is now judged to be a 1.04 percent decrease. With October’s after-inflation production rise downgraded, too, aircraft and parts output is now just 10.71 percent higher than in February, 2020. As of last month’s Fed manufacturing data, this figure was a much higher 15.86 percent.

In pharmaceuticals and medicines, December’s 0.13 percent real output dip was the third straight monthly decline, and November and October revisions were fractionally negative on balance. Consequently, in price-adjusted production terms, these sectors were 13.42 percent larger than in February, 2020 – as opposd to the 13.54 percent calculable from last month’s industrial production report.

And as mentioned at the outset, the December results for medical equipment and supplies sector were awful – especially considering that for the next few months at least, Omicron’s metastasis will greatly increase demand for face masks, protective gowns, ventilators, and the like.

Real production of these products tumbled seqentially by 2.75 percent – the worst such performance since April, 2020’s 15.97 percent, during that first CCP Virus wave. Revisions for November and October were mildly positive, but whereas last month’s report revealed that inflation-adjusted production in these sectors was up since just before the first wave struck in force (though by a bare 0.65 percent), it’s now down by 1.50 percent. 

And let’s add another sector to the pandemic industries list – semiconductors and related devices. As implied by the category name, the numbers include more than the microchips that have been in such global short supply in recent months – and whose U.S. production revival has been such a high stated Washington, D.C. policy priority.

Still, it’s noteworthy that constant dollar output in this grouping rose a mere 0.12 percent on month in December, But it is up 16.86 percent since the pre-pandemicky February, 2020.

So far, betting against domestic manufacturing during the virus era has been a losing bet, But the headwinds for the near future at least look especially strong, topped of course by the spread of Omicron not only in the United States but in all the countries to which its manufacturers sell exports. Add to the list the apparent death of President Biden’s Build Back Better bill – which whatever its long-term economic wisdom and other effects, will certainly reduce government support for domestic economic activity – what seems like greater odds of more monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve sooner rather than later; and inflation that might be getting high enough to dampen U.S. consumer outlays.  

Tailwinds are by no means absent – like the beginning of spending made possible by the infrastructure bill, the still considerable amount of stimulus being provided by the Fed, and the easing of global supply chain knots. But even this last depends heavily on the medical, regulatory, and behavioral effects of Omicron in the United States and, perhaps even more important, in China, where the regime’s Zero Covid policy looks like a formula for ever broader lockdowns that will paralyze its ports and other infrastructure systems. 

Domestic manufacturers keep telling major surveys that they remain optimistic about the future.  (See here and here for the latest soundings.)  If anything’s certain about the circumstances they’re heading into, it’s that they’ll need every bit of this optimism to keep succeeding. 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Steady as She Goes for U.S. Manufacturing Employment

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737 Max, aerospace, aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, Biden administration, Boeing, Build Back Better, CCP Virus, China, computer and electronics products, coronavirus, COVID 19, electrical equipment, Employment, fabricated metals products, Federal Reserve, food products, Jobs, Labor Department, machinery, manufacturing, miscellaneous durable goods, miscellaneous non-durable goods, NFP, non-farm payrolls, Omicron variant, personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, PPE, private sector, stimulus, surgical equipment, vaccines, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

However disappointing America’s November economy-wide job creation was, the official U.S. statistics released this morning show that you shouldn’t blame the nation’s manufacturers. Although total non-farm payrolls (NFP – the domestic employment universe of the U.S. Labor Department, which tracks these trends) advanced sequentially by a modest 210,000 (the worst such figure since last December’s 306,000 monthly loss), U.S.-based industry added a solid 31,000 net new positions. And revisions of the previous few months strong numbers were revised downward only moderately.

Speaking of revisions, it’s especially important today to note that the new NFP statistics are still preliminary – and will be for two more months. It’s especially important because recently – and no doubt largely due to the unprecedentedly weird nature of the CCP Virus-era U.S. economy – revisions have been enormous. For example, August’s initially reported NFP increase was just 235,000. Since then, it’s been upgraded all the way up to 483,000. The first September result – 194,000 – is now judged to be 379,000. So there’s no reason yet to conclude that the national economic sky is falling, or even changing much.

At first glance, based on this preliminary November data, manufacturing’s latest monthly employment performance slightly trailed that of the rest of the economy.

As of last month, including the revisions, industry has regained 1.132 million (or 81.73 percent) of the 1.385 million jobs it lost during the worst of the pandemic-induced recession in spring of 2020. So the manufacturing employment recovery improved by 1.53 percent on month.

The private sector overall as of November has now regained 18.376 million of the 21.353 million jobs it shed during peak CCP Virus. That 86.06 percent figure is 1.76 percent higher than October’s.

And the total non-farm sector has now recovered 18.450 million of the 22.362 million jobs it lost during that pandemic-triggered downturn. The resulting 82.50 percent mark is 1.60 percent better than October’s.

But don’t forget – manufacturing’s jobs decline during that terrible spring of 2020 was smaller proportionately than that of the private or non-farm sectors. So even though it’s had less ground to make up, U.S.-based industry has been creating new employment at nearly the pace of the economy as a whole.

November’s manufacturing jobs improvement was also noteworthy because it took place despite job losses of 10,100 in the automotive sector – which accounted for more than 40 percent of October’s advances. In fact, automotive revisions also accounted for 70 percent of the downgrading of that overall manufacturing October monthly manufacturing jobs improvement (from 60,000 to 48,000).

Other important November manufacturing job losers in the larger categories monitored by the Labor Department were computer and electronics products, which contains semiconductors, and which saw employment drop by 1,300 (its worst monthly decline since the 4,900 recorded in July, 2020); and – at least as troublingly, machinery. That latter industry, whose products are used throughout manufacturing and big non-manufacturing industries like agriculture and construction, shed 6,000 positions. That was its biggest month’s worth of job losses since the 861,000 disaster during the dark days of April, 2020.

These losses leave computer and electronics employment levels just 0.85 percent higher than just before the pandemic began distorting the American economy (in February, 2020) and machinery employment levels 2.63 percent lower.

November’s big manufacturing jobs winners were topped by the miscellaneous durable goods sector – which includes the major CCP Virus-related medical goods. Its payrolls surged by 10,000 – the most since July, 2020, during the first post- pandemic economic bounce, when they soared by 15,000. The fabricated metals products industry generated a 7,900 payroll jump that was its biggest since March’s 10,100. Food products added 7,400 employees for its best gain since August, 2020’s 19,000. Miscellaneous non-durable goods manufacturing was up 3,500. And electrical equipment and appliances’ payrolls grew by 3,300.

As always, the most detailed employment data for pandemic-related industries is one month behind those in the broader categories, and their October job creation was generally solid.

On the disappointing side was the surgical appliances and supplies sector. This industry contains personal protective equipment and similar goods, and the miscellaneous durable goods sector in which it’s been classified saw employment rise by a respectable 2,900 sequentially in October. But only 100 of these new positions came in the surgical appliances and supplies sub-sector. At the same time, September’s initially reported 900 jobs increase was revised up to 1,300, so maybe October will be a statistical blip – assuming of course that it’s not substantially revised, too. And as of October, payrolls in this sector have climbed by 8.27 percent over their immediate pre-CCP Virus February, 2020 levels – compared with the 7.79 percent calculable from the previous jobs report.

The overall pharmaceuticals and medicines industry performed better, with payrolls swelling by 1,500 in October. Still, September’s initially reported jobs rise of 1,500 was revised down to 1,200. Therefore, employment in these sectors now stands 5.49 percent higher than in February, 2020 – better than the 4.62 percent calculable last month.

The medicines subsector containing vaccines expanded employment by 700 in October – down from September’s 1,700, but better than August’s 400. These results mean that this industry’s workforce is now 13.25 percent larger than in February, 2020.

U.S. aerospace giant Boeing’s manufacturing and safety problems have depressed employment in aircraft production along with the pandemic’s restrictions on travel, and payrolls improved by just 300 on month in October following an unrevised drop of 500 in September. But help may be on the way, with China having just decided that its troubled 737 Max model has passed safety inspections and may return to the China market after a two-year ban that greatly reduced the company’s – and overall U.S. – exports.

So although the American aircraft industry’s workforce in October was still 8.12 percent smaller than it was just before the CCP Virus era (down from the 8.24 percent shrinkage calculable last month), look for the sector to start closing the gap meaningfully.

Good news sure could be used by the U.S. aircraft engines and engine parts industry. In October, its employment dipped by 100, and September’s initially reported jobs gain of 600 has been downgraded to 400. This sector’s workforce is now down 13.82 percent since immediate pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 – more than the 13.49 percent calculable last month.

The situation in non-engine aircraft parts and equipment was a good deal better. It grew payrolls by just 100 in October, but September’s initually reported jobs increase of 900 is now pegged at 1,200 – the best such performance since April, 2008. Consequently, whereas employment in this sector as of last month’s data was 15.82 percent less than in February, 2020, the figure is now 15.48 percent.

A significant Boeing comeback would add to the tailwinds identifiable behind the manufacturing jobs scene at this time. Others of course are the expected continued strong growth of the entire economy, a possibly stronger recovery globally, an easing of the supply chain crisis, the prospect of infrastructure bill money starting to be spent, and the seemingly shrinking odds that manufacturers and other U.S.-based businesses will face significant tax increases related to the Biden administration’s Build Back Better legislation.

Not that clouds are gone from the scene completely. Inflation seems to be picking up (although so far, and by the same token, manufacturers in toto have been able to pass on price increases to business and household customers). A defeat or postponement of Build Back Better will reduce the amount of government stimulus supporting consumer spending – and if the Federal Reserve follows through with its decision to start cutting back on some of its own stimulus, contractionary forces will strengthen. And of course there’s the virus wild card that’s just appeared in the form of the Omicron variant.

Still, the tailwinds now seem more impressive than the clouds, so I’m still optimistic about the future of manufacturing’s jobs recovery.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The Revisions Outshone the New U.S. Manufacturing Jobs Gains

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aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, Boeing, CCP Virus, China, coronavirus, COVID 19, Delta variant, electrical equipment, Employment, fabricated metals products, Jobs, Labor Department, machinery, manufacturing, medicines, metals, miscellaneous durable goods, NFP, non-farm payrolls, personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, PPE, recovery, tariffs, Trade, vaccines, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Although U.S. manufacturers grew their payrolls by a solid net 27,000 in July, according to the Labor Department’s new jobs report for the month, the big story for industry lies in the June revisions. As often the case during the CCP Virus era, moreover, these were dominated by the automotive sector.

Specifically, June’s initially reported monthly 15,000 manufacturing jobs increase was boosted all the way up to 39,000. And the automotive numbers for June executed a stunning turnabout – from an estimated loss of 12,300 to a gain of 2,700. By contrast, net hiring in the vehicles and parts sectors for July was a quiet 800.

The May manufacturing employment revisions were less dramatic – from an increase 39,000 to one of 36,000. But that month had already witnessed its own huge revision – from an initially reported 23,000 to that 39,000.

Outside automotive, the June revisions were widespread through manufacturing, led by electrical equipment and appliances, whose employment increase that month was upgraded from 1,700 to 3,600. (Its July net job creation was a mere 200.)

Even with the strong revisions, though, manufacturing’s recent status as a U.S. recovery employment laggard continued. As of July, domestic industry had regained 952,000 (68.74 percent) of the 1.385 million net jobs lost in March and April of 2020. The numbers for the private sector overall are 76.96 percent of the 21.353 million lost jobs that have been recovered, and for the total non-farm economy (the definition of the American employment universe used by the U.S. government, which includes government jobs) 74.50 percent of the 22.362 million jobs lost.

One reason, of course, is that manufacturing employment suffered less than payrolls in the rest of the economy in the early spring of 2020. Its job levels fell by 10.82 percent, compared with 16.46 percent for the private sector and 14.66 for the entire non-farm economy.

At the same time, U.S.-based industry is still benefiting from stiff tariffs on metals and goods from China, and like the entire economy, is being supported by massive government stimulus along with skyrocketing vaccine production. This puzzle may be explained by the bottlenecks and resulting shortages plaguing all industries, and by the introduction of labor-saving equipment and other restructuring to substitute for the workers so many manufacturers claim are so hard to find. But as I wrote in last month’s examination of the June jobs report, I’m not completely convinced yet by either explanation.

The biggest July manufacturing employment winners by far of the major industry categories used by the U.S. government were machinery (6,800), miscellaneous durable goods (5,500), and fabricated metals products (4,500).

The performance of the first two is especially encouraging, since machinery’s products are used so widely throughout the entire economy (and since robust hiring therefore signals widespread overall strength and healthy capital spending); and since miscellaneous durable goods includes the personal protective equipment (PPE) and other medical supplies whose importance has been underscored by the pandemic.

Indeed, as a result of their July jobs gains, machinery employment has risen to within 3.30 percent of its immediate pre-pandemic level (in February, 2020), and the comparable figure for miscellaneous durable goods is 1.09 percent higher. (More on the performance of its PPE-including category will be presented below.) Both figures are better than that for manufacturing overall, whose payrolls are still 3.38 percent lower than just before the CCP Virus began significantly affecting the economy.

The only July manufacturing jobs losers suffered overwhelmingly fractional sequential setbacks, led by transportation equipment overall (the category containing automotive, where employment sank by 1,500) and semiconductors and electronic components, where global shortages undoubtedly had much to do with its job loss of 800.

Returning to the pandemic-related industries, where the data are one month behind, the picture in surgical appliances and supplies (the sector containing PPE) is dominated by a big downgrade in the May numbers – from a gain of 1,700 to a loss of 900. And in June, 500 more positions were shed. As a result, employment in this crucial national health security sector has fallen to 7.60 percent above immediate pre-pandemic levels.

In the overall pharmaceuticals and medicines industry, a slightly upgrade of May’s originally reported 400 job loss (to a drop of 300) was followed by a June rise of 2,700 – the biggest monthly advance since September, 2019’s 3,500 (well before the CCP Virus arrived). Its employment levels have consequently climbed to 4.72 percent above their February, 2020 figure.

The pharmaceuticals subsector containing vaccines showed continued good job growth, with May’s unrevised 1,000 improvement followed by an identical June increase. This industry now employs 10.20 percent more workers than just before the pandemic.

Aircraft employment levels have fluctuated wildly recently, due surely to the constant barrage of news both good and bad about Boeing. May’s 5,500 job plunge – the worst such performance since June, 2020’s 5,800 shrinkage – was followed by a June gain of 4,500. That’s its best hiring month since the same number of workers was added in July, 2012. But aircraft employment is still 7.55 percent less than in February, 2020, when the pandemic’s spread globally decimated air travel worldwide. On a more positive note, however, Boeing seems to believe the worst is over.

Aircraft engines and parts employment has been much more stable than aircraft’s, and these industries added 500 workers in total in June. But their payrolls are 14.91 percent smaller than in February, 2020 – nearly twice as big a proportional drop as in aircraft.

What’s next for domestic manufacturing employment? Last month I saw plenty of sources of uncertainty, ranging from bottlenecks to the infrastructure legislation to China tariff policy. Now there’s the virus’ hyper-contagious (but so far less harmful) Delta variant to contend with, and all the resumed lockdowns and other economic activity restrictions it could portend – along with the related likelihood of continued strong and even greater vaccine demand (though the sector isn’t big enough to move the national manufacturing jobs needle much).

I’m still most impressed by how all the national and regional surveys keep showing that manufacturers themselves see a still-brightening future ahead. (See, e.g., here and here.) After all, they’re the ones with skin in the game. Let’s hope they’re right. 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Strong Crosswinds Roil the New U.S. Manufacturing Jobs Figures

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aerospace, air travel, automotive, CCP Virus, chemicals, coronavirus, COVID 19, Employment, fabricated metals products, infrastructure, Jobs, machinery, manufacturing, miscellaneous durable goods, miscellaneous non-durable goods, non-farm jobs, pharmaceuticals, PPE, private sector, regulation, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, stimulus package, taxes, vaccines, wood products, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

It’s tough to imagine a U.S. official monthly jobs report giving off so many conflicting signals about the health of domestic manufacturing and its outlook than the one that came out this morning (for April).

On the one hand, the sector’s 18,000 jobs loss was its worst monthly performance since the identical January setback. On the other hand, the problem was heavily concentrated in the automotive sector, which has been forced to cut back production due to the ongoing global semiconductor shortage. On the other, other hand (!), this shortage is unlikely to ease for many months. On still another hand, the revisions were strong. And some key manufacturing industries continued a recent pattern of solid results. At the same time, even removing the automotive results would still leave the rest of domestic manufacturing’s April employment performance decidedly weak.

I could go on in this vein – and will below.

The decisive automotive/semiconductor effect on the April manufacturing figures becomes clear enough upon realizing that this sector’s 27,000 sequential employment loss was considerably greater than manufacturing’s total on-month job decline. Nonetheless, even had automotive held its employment line, the consequent 9,000 manufacturing job increase would have been unimpressive at very best.

And yet there are those revisions. March’s initially reported 53,000 monthly manufacturing payroll increases – the best such figure since last September’s 55,000 – are now pegged at 54,000. Even better, February’s initially downgraded (from 21,000 to 18,000) monthly employment increase has now been revised all the way up to 35,000.

As a result, domestic industry has now regained 63.83 percent (or 870,000) of the 1.363 million jobs it shed during the height of the CCP Virus pandemic in spring, 2020. It’s still behind the private sector overall (which has recovered 66.88 percent of its pandemic peak employment loss), but still ahead of the overall economy’s (called the non-farm sector by the Labor Department, which issues the monthly jobs reports) 63.26 percent.

The only major April manufacturing jobs loser other than automotive was the small wood products sector (7,200). The big fabricated metals products industry saw employment fall by 2,900 on month in April, but the drop followed a large March gain that’s been downwardly revised but still stands at a strong 10,400.

The machinery numbers were downright encouraging, and that matters because as I keep reminding, this subsector’s products are used not only throughout the rest of domestic manufacturing, but in other important parts of the economy like construction and agriculture. Its April employment boost of 3,700 followed March job creation that was upgraded strongly to 5,400.

In the big miscellaneous durable goods sector, a catchall category that includes everything from surgical equipment and supplies (like personal healthcare protection equipment – PPE – more on which later) to jewelry to gaskets and fasteners to musical instruments, payrolls jumped by 12,600 – their best monthly performance since its 15,300 advance last July.

And two other significant manufacturing employers –miscellaneous non-durable goods and the big chemicals sectors (whose output is also used all over the economy) – each generated enjoyed healthy payrolls increases of 4,300 in April.

Even the industries closely related to the fight against the CCP Virus, whose employment performance since the pandemic’s arrival generally have disappointed, showed some signs of job-creation life in April.

The overall pharmaceutical industry added 1,500 jobs on month in March (the latest available figures) and Februay’s improvement remains a strong 1,700. Since the last pre-pandemic month (February, 2020), this sector’s payrolls have grown by 3.11 percent.

Hiring slowed in the pharmaceuticals subsector containing vaccines – from 1,300 sequentially in February (unchanged from the first estimate) to 500 in March (also the latest available figures). But these companies’ employment is still 6.77 percent higher than in that last pre-pandemic month of February, 2020.

The employment signals were mixed in the manufacturing category containing PPE goods like facemasks, gloves, and medical gowns. Monthly job creation in February was downgraded from zero to a loss of 100, but March’s results (also the most recent) came in at 900, and this sector now employs 8.75 percent more workers than in February, 2020.

In an aerospace industry troubled for years by Boeing’s safety woes, the recent jobs figures are literally all over the place. The latest (March) results show that payrolls for aircraft fell month-to-month in March by 1,800 – surely reflecting the continuing virus-generated slump in air travel. But February’s upward revisions were nothing less than stunning – skyrocketing from a jump of 1,000 to one of 11,700. Fluctuations – though more modest – were also evident in aircraft engines and parts, and non-engine aircraft parts.

Yet as confusing as the new manufacturing jobs figures have been, the future seems just as cloudy. Optimism remains justified by developments like the enormous amounts of stimulus still pouring into the U.S. economy, by the apparent certainty that a major injection of infratructure spending is (finally) on the way, and by the continuing reopening of the economy spurred by vaccinations and less consumer caution.

Even so, the semiconductor shortage is not only here to stay for some time, but has affected many other industries other than automotive. The rate of U.S. vaccinations is slowing and the virus – including the new variants – appears likely to stage something of a comeback when the weather cools again in the fall. Air travel may never recover to pre-virus levels, which will harm not only the aerospace industry per se, but its vast domestic supply chain. And higher taxes and many more regulations could well hit U.S.-based manufacturers – at least until the Congressional elections of 2022.

On balance, I’d still bet on a bright future for domestic industry – mainly because all the sentiment surveys show that manufacturers themselves are full of confidence, and because President Biden has kept in place all the Trump China and metals tariffs that have priced much foreign competition out of the U.S. market. But I’m far from willing to bet the ranch.