Our So-Called Foreign Policy: More Childish Attacks on Trump

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alliances, allies, Council on Foreign Relations, foreign policy establishment, George H.W. Bush, Greece, IMF, International Monetary Fund, international organizations, internationalism, Iran deal, JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, journalists, Mainstream Media, media, military bases, NAFTA, New Zealand, North American Free Trade Agreement, Our So-Called Foreign Policy, Paris climate accord, Philippines, Richard N. Haass, Ronald Reagan, TPP, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trump, UN, UNESCO, United Nations, Withdrawal Doctrine, World Bank, World Trade Organization, WTO

I’m getting to think that in an important way it’s good that establishment journalists and foreign policy think tank hacks still dominate America’s debate on world affairs. It means that for the foreseeable future, we’ll never run out of evidence of how hidebound, juvenile, and astonishingly ignorant these worshipers of the status quo tend to be. Just consider the latest fad in their ranks: the narrative that the only theme conferring any coherence on President Trump’s foreign policy is his impulse to pull the United States out of alliances and international organizations, or at least rewrite them substantially.

This meme was apparently brewed up at the heart of the country’s foreign policy establishment – the Council on Foreign Relations. Its president, former aide to Republican presidents Richard N. Haass, tweeted on October 12, “Trump foreign policy has found its theme: The Withdrawal Doctrine. US has left/threatening to leave TPP, Paris accord, Unesco, NAFTA, JCPOA.” [He’s referring here to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal that aimed to link the U.S. economy more tightly to East Asian and Western Hemisphere countries bordering the world’s largest ocean; the global deal to slow down climate change; the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization; the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the official name of the agreement seeking to deny Iran nuclear weapons.]

In a classic instance of group-think, this one little 140-character sentence was all it took to spur the claim’s propagation by The Washington Post, The Atlantic, Marketwatch.com, Vice.com, The Los Angeles Times, and Britain’s Financial Times (which publishes a widely read U.S. edition).  For good measure, the idea showed up in The New Republic, too – albeit without mentioning Haass.

You’d have to read far into (only some of) these reports to see any mention that American presidents taking similar decisions is anything but unprecedented. Indeed, none of them reminded readers of one of the most striking examples of alliance disruption from the White House: former President Ronald Reagan’s decision to withdraw American defense guarantees to New Zealand because of a nuclear weapons policy dispute. Moreover, the administrations of Reagan and George H.W. Bush engaged in long, testy negotiations with long-time allies the Philippines and Greece on renewing basing agreements that involved major U.S. cash payments.

Just as important, you could spend hours on Google without finding any sense in these reports that President Trump has decided to remain in America’s major security alliances in Europe and Asia, as well as in the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (along with a series of multilateral regional development banks).

More important, you’d also fail to find on Google to find any indication that any of the arrangements opposed by Mr. Trump might have less than a roaring success. The apparent feeling in establishment ranks is that it’s not legitimate for American leaders to decide that some international arrangements serve U.S. interests well, some need to be recast, and some are such failures or are so unpromising that they need to be ditched or avoided in the first place.

And the reason that such discrimination is so doggedly opposed is that, the internationalist world affairs strategy pursued for decades by Presidents and Congresses across the political spectrum (until, possibly, now) is far from a pragmatic formula for dealing with a highly variegated, dynamic world. Instead, it’s the kind of rigid dogma that’s most often (and correctly) associated with know-it-all adolescents and equally callow academics. What else but an utterly utopian ideology could move a writer from a venerable pillar of opinion journalism (the aforementioned Atlantic) to traffick in such otherworldly drivel as

“A foreign-policy doctrine of withdrawal also casts profound doubt on America’s commitment to the intricate international system that the United States helped create and nurture after World War II so that countries could collaborate on issues that transcend any one nation.”

Without putting too fine a point on it, does that sound like the planet you live on?

I have no idea whether whatever changes President Trump is mulling in foreign policy will prove effective or disastrous, or turn out to be much ado about very little. I do feel confident in believing that the mere fact of rethinking some foreign policy fundamentals makes his approach infinitely more promising than one that views international alliances and other arrangements in all-or-nothing terms; that evidently can’t distinguish the means chosen to advance U.S. objectives from the objectives themselves; and that seems oblivious to the reality that the international sphere lacks the characteristic that makes prioritizing institution’s creation and maintenance not only possible in the domestic sphere, but indispensable – a strong consensus on defining acceptable and unacceptable behavior.

One of the most widely (and deservedly) quoted adages about international relations is the observation, attributed to a 19^th century British foreign minister, that his nation had “no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” Until America’s foreign policy establishment and its media mouthpieces recognize that this advice applies to international institutions, too, and start understanding the implications, they’ll keep losing influence among their compatriots. And rightly so.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Body Blows for Three Major China Currency and Economy Myths

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Australia, Canada, China, Congress, currency, currency manipulation, devaluation, dollar, export-led growth, Federal Reserve, infrastructure, Jack Lew, Janet Yellen, New Zealand, purchasing power parity, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, TPP, Trade, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Treasury Department, {What's Left of) Our Economy

For all the intensive and wide-ranging media coverage of China’s yuan devaluation just over a week ago, three crucial aspects with big implications for Sino-American trade relations and for President Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have been neglected.

First, compelling new evidence has emerged that China’s currency move does indeed represent manipulation to achieve advantages in trade – a conclusion that the U.S. Treasury Department has long balked at reaching in its Congressionally mandated reports on foreign exchange rate policies. Of course, Treasury has for years called the yuan undervalued. But it’s excused Beijing of the currency manipulation charge by (most recently) citing the yuan’s “real progress” in appreciating in real terms versus the dollar and China’s reduced intervention in foreign exchange markets.

Treasury, however, will be hard pressed to explain away The New York Times‘ disclosure earlier this week that:

“In a little-noted [July] advisory to government agencies, [China’s] cabinet said it was essential to fix the export problem, and the currency had to be part of the solution….Soon after, the Communist Party leaders issued a statement also urging action on exports. It all set the stage for the currency devaluation last week that resulted in the biggest drop in the renminbi since 1994. The cabinet’s call to action: The country needed to give the currency more flexibility and to reinvigorate exports. If officials did not act, China risked deeper turmoil at home, threatening the stability of the government.”

In other words, the entire top Chinese leadership – not just the Ministry of Commerce, which has explicitly championed a cheap yuan as an export booster frequently in the past – is now on record as having supported a deliberately weakened yuan in order to improve China’s global price competitiveness. What else do American authorities need to make the manipulation accusation officially?

More important, because a Treasury manipulation finding does not, contrary to the conventional wisdom, require any policy follow up, how can supporters of the TPP now justify the agreement’s failure to incorporate effective curbs on such exchange-rate protectionism? During Congress’ recent debate, lawmakers who opposed such measures, along with the administration, insisted that TPP currency sanctions could backfire against the United States because they could be legitimately used to counter any currency effects of the easy money policies of America’s Federal Reserve.  So did Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself, along with Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.

Now, however, it couldn’t be clearer that trade-related currency devaluations having nothing to do with monetary policy are a clear and present danger to the U.S. economy. It’s true, as I’ve noted, that even strong currency language in the Pacific Rim trade deal would not automatically amount to solving the problem, since many other first round and follow-on TPP countries have powerful incentives to retain a currency manipulation arrow in their policy quiver. But at the very least, it’s no longer possible to argue that TPP currency provisions inevitably create a dangerous downside for the United States. And however unlikely, an upside can’t be completely ruled out. The case for unilateral American responses, which the president also adamantly opposes, just got a lot stronger, too. 

Second, new data challenges the claims of administration and other opponents of any currency curbs that the yuan undervaluation problem is steadily solving itself thanks to China’s voluntary actions. Yes, the International Monetary Fund in April declared that the yuan is now appropriately valued. But exactly the opposite conclusion looks more accurate upon bringing into the picture one widely accepted tool for dealing with analytical complications arising from the often dramatically differing price levels among economies – especially those at different stages of economic development.

Thus according to Purchasing Power Parity methodology, the yuan is still more than 40 percent undervalued versus the dollar. Not far behind is the Japan’s yen. And the currencies of three other first-round TPP countries – Australia, Canada, and New Zealand – also supposedly belong in this category.

Finally, even more new data debunks another major argument against strong currency manipulation actions – the contention that China is shifting dramatically from an export-led growth model to a demand-led blueprint. Optimists on this score typically cite figures showing much faster growth in investment in China than in exports. But yesterday, an important Wall Street Journal piece featured an insight regarding the makeup of China’s economy and growth that decision-makers and analysts urgently need to understand: Properly measuring the importance of exports to China requires counting much more than the country’s total overseas sales or even its trade and current account surpluses. It requires counting all the infrastructure spending on all of the roads, bridges, ports, airports, and other projects that are needed to support exports, and that have been one of China’s major competitive strengths.

Figures reported by Journal correspondent Greg Ip show that, when the export sector is properly defined, its contribution to China’s growth is down since 2010, but “still remarkable amid slower growth in its trading partners and a higher yuan.” In the process, he supported a point that I’ve been making for several years. On top of this finding, data I’ve previously spotlighted shows that, given its overall growth slowdown and expanding trade surpluses, China has been getting even more export-oriented lately.

A China that’s unmistakably manipulating its currency and increasingly export-heavy, and a yuan whose value remains massively distorted by Beijing don’t of course guarantee that Congress will start expressing big second thoughts about endorsing President Obama’s TPP and China trade status quos. But they do mean that lawmakers will be even shorter than usual of reasons not to.