(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Ups & Downs for Manufacturing Production, but Recovery Still Incomplete

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automotive, durable goods, Federal Reserve, Great Recession, industrial production, inflation-adjusted output, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recovery, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Domestic manufacturing has entered a period of output volatility, today’s new Federal Reserve figures indicate. Inflation-adjusted production in May – the latest data – fell sequentially (by 0.39 percent) for the second time in three months, following a six-month streak of sequential improvements. But April’s big rise was upgraded from one percent to 1.16 percent – the strongest such showing since May, 2010’s 1.49 percent, early in the current recovery. At the same time, March’s already downgraded 0.41 percent real monthly output decrease was lowered again, to a 0.75 percent slide. That was the worst such retreat since winter-affected January, 2014’s 1.09 percent.

Automotive revisions figured prominently in these upgrades and downgrades, with April’s initially reported five percent constant dollar monthly production surge now judged to be 4.12 percent. In May, after-inflation output for the sector, which has led generally led manufacturing’s rebound from the Great Recession, tumbled 2.02 percent on month.  

Durable goods – manufacturing’s biggest super-sector – was most seriously affected by the auto volatility.  Its April monthly real output was boosted to an upwardly revised 1.20 percent – the fastest such pace since February, 2014’s winter-affected 1.80 percent.  But its May after-inflation on-month production was dragged down to a 0.84 percent fall – the worst since the 0.99 percent decrease resulting partly from January, 2014’s similarly cold weather.    

Non-durables’ production performance has been steadier, with May’s 0.10 percent on-month real gain its fourth such improvement in five months. Moreover, April’s sequential inflation-adjusted production growth was upgraded from an already strong 0.98 percent to 1.10 percent – it best such performance since October, 2008’s 2.15 percent. And non-durables’ annual real output increase of 1.53 percent was its best year-on-year rise since February, 2016’s 1.55 percent.

All the same, the new figures and volatility left domestic manufacturing’s price-adjusted output 3.99 percent less than at its pre-recession peak, more than nine years ago.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on May industrial production:

>U.S. real manufacturing output fell in May sequentially for the second time in three months. But the 0.39 percent decline – which followed six straight months of sequential growth – was modest compared with many of the March and April revisions, which could be starting a period of new volatility.

>April’s strong initially reported inflation-adjusted output rise of one percent was revised up to 1.16 percent. That was the best such performance since May, 2010’s 1.49 percent, when the manufacturing recovery from the Great Recession was still gathering steam.

>But March’s already downgraded 0.41 percent monthly real production decline was cut further, to 0.75 percent. That was domestic manufacturing’s worst such growth showing since the 1.09 percent fall-off in January 2014, which was affected by harsh winter weather.

>February’s last (downwardly revised) 0.27 percent monthly after-inflation output increase was revised back up to 0.38 percent.

>Some these swings can be traced to the automotive sector, which has led manufacturing’s real growth for most of the current economic recovery.

>April on-month price-adjusted auto production was initially reported to have advanced by five percent – its best growth since July, 2015’s 7.84 percent. Leading the way was a reported 8.04 percent surge in real vehicle output, also the best since July, 2015 (12.38 percent).

>The new April numbers: 4.12 percent and 6.76 percent, respectively. And in May, constant-dollar production fell by 2.02 percent.

>Automotive’s ups and downs most profoundly affected production of durable goods – manufacturing’s largest super-sector.

>The poor May automotive performance contributed to the 0.84 percent sequential durable goods real production shrinkage that month – the worst such decline since winter-affected January, 2014’s 0.99 percent.

>But the initially reported 1.01 April monthly durables production advance is now estimated at 1.20 percent – the super-sector’s fastest growth since the winter-affected 1.80 percent in February, 2014. Combined with the lower automotive results, this development indicated some relative strength outside automotive.  

>And thanks to the strong and upwardly revised April monthly figures, durable goods year-on-year after-inflation production gain that month was upgraded from 2.03 percent to 2.22 percent – still the best such increase since January, 2015’s 3.15 percent, which was also affected by harsh winter weather.

>In April, however, the annual durable goods real output improvement sank to 1.66 percent.

>The new Fed figures show that real output in non-durable goods has been steadier than in durables, but April was a standout nonetheless. Their robust sequential output growth of 0.98 percent was revised up to 1.10 percent – which produced the best monthly result since the 2.15 percent recorded in October, 2008 – even before the Great Recession broke out.

>And non-durables followed up by eaking out 0.10 percent monthly inflation-adjusted production growth in May – their fourth such advance in the last five months.

>Further, the 1.53 percent May non-durables annual constant dollar output increase was its best yearly result since February, 2016’s 1.55 percent.

>Yet not even this recent volatility could turn domestic manufacturing into a recovery-era economic winner. The overall sector is still 3.99 percent smaller in real terms than at its pre-recession peak – more than nine years ago, in December, 2007.

>Durable goods real output is up – but by only 0.13 percent – during this time, while non-durables real output is down 9.08 percent from its pre-recession peak, hit in July, 2007.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Growth Regained Momentum in April

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automotive, durable goods, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recession, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s new Federal Reserve figures showed that real U.S. manufacturing production rebounded in April after a March decline with its best monthly gain (one percent) since winter-affected February, 2014’s 1.11 percent. April’s annual increase (1.91 percent), moreover, was the strongest since January, 2015’s 2.58 percent – which was also impacted by harsh weather. Leading the April industrial comeback was the automotive sector, which saw its constant dollar output jump five percent – the biggest monthly improvement since July, 2015’s 7.84 percent. Vehicles were the standout within automotive, as after inflation production soared by 8.02 percent on-month in April, their best month since a 12.38 percent increase also registered in July, 2015.

Thanks largely to the automotive sector, price-adjusted output in the durable goods super-sector increased by 1.01 percent. That rise was its best since March, 2014 (1.03 percent). Largely as a result, the yearly inflation-adjusted durables output increase of 2.03 percent was its best such performance since January, 2015’s 3.15 percent – which was weather-related as well. But manufacturing’s solid April improvement was broad-based, as indicated by the 0.98 percent monthly gain in non-durable goods production – its best since November, 2014 (1.03 percent). Moreover, the annual inflation-adjusted non-durables production improvement of 1.73 percent was its best such improvement since October, 2015 (1.81 percent).

Revisions to March and February manufacturing output numbers were slightly negative, however, and the sector’s after-inflation output is still down by 3.58 percent since the onset of the last recession – more than nine years ago.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on April industrial production:

>U.S. real manufacturing output regained its momentum in April following a March drop, with real output growing sequentially (by one percent) for the seventh time in the last eight months.

>The gain was industry’s best since the 1.11 percent on-month increase in February, 2014 – when the sector was recovering from a harsh winter.

>Largely as a result, after-inflation manufacturing production in April also recorded its best annual increase (1.91 percent) since January, 2015’s 2.58 percent – which also partly stemmed from a recovery from a slowdown due to unusually cold weather.

>Leading manufacturing’s April surge was the biggest (five percent) sequential increase in automotive production since July, 2015 (7.84 percent). And leading automotive was the vehicles sector, where constant dollar production jumped on-month by 8.02 percent – also the biggest such advance since July, 2015 (12.38 percent).

>Thanks largely to automotive’s performance, the durable goods super-sector saw its monthly price-adjusted production grow by 1.01 percent – the fastest pace registered since March, 2014’s 1.03 percent.

>In addition, durable goods’ annual April real advance of 2.03 percent was its best such performance since the weather-affected 3.15 percent improvement in January, 2015.

>But April’s sequential manufacturing advance extended far beyond the durables super-sector, as its non-durables counterpart boosted its monthly real production last month by 0.98 percent. That growth rate was its best since November, 2014’s 1.03 percent.

>Non-durables’ real annual output gain of 1.77 percent was its fastest since October, 2015’s 1.i1 percent.

>The only blemishes in these April Fed manufacturing data were the revisions. March’s previously reported 0.38 percent monthly real production decline was downgraded to a 0.41 percent falloff and February’s already downwardly revised 0.35 percent sequential growth is now reported as a 0.27 percent rise. The downwardly revised January on-month growth figure of 0.39 percent was upgraded to 0.40 percent.

>Despite April’s strong monthly results, American domestic manufacturing is still 3.58 percent smaller in real terms than at the beginning of the last recession – more than nine years ago, at the end of 2007.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Automotive Plunge into Technical Recession Drags Down March US Manufacturing Output

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automotive, durable goods, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted output, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recession, recovery, vehicles, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The Federal Reserve’s new industrial production report today showed that U.S. domestic manufacturing in March took its first monthly tumble (0.38 percent) since August and its biggest since winter-affected February, 2015 (0.49 percent). Revisions (which incorporate the latest annual revision results released last month) were negative, and undercut the strong preliminary readings reported for January and February.

March’s manufacturing output fall-off was led by the biggest sequential plunge in constant dollar automotive output (2.96 percent) since May’s 3.19 percent decrease. As a result, the combined vehicles and parts industry, which has led U.S. manufacturing’s comeback during most of the current recovery, fell into a technical recession. It’s real production is now down by 0.38 percent since last February. Vehicle output was especially weak in March, plummeting by 4.77 percent for its worst month since last May’s 4.94 percent shrinkage in real terms.

March’s poor numbers mean that real U.S. domestic manufacturing output is now down on net since January, 2006 (by 0.38 percent), and is 4.43 percent below its all-time high, hit in December, 2007. The weak March automotive numbers helped drive monthly durable goods output down by its greatest percentage (0.83 percent) since January, 2014’s winter-affected 0.99 percent sequential contraction.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on March industrial production:

>U.S. real manufacturing output dropped in March on month for the first time since last August, and the 0.38 sequential fall-off of 0.38 percent was industry’s biggest since February, 2015’s 0.49 percent – which was affected by unusually cold weather.

>Just as discouraging, the revisions (which incorporated the latest annual industrial production revision released by the Fed in late March) weakened initially reported combined January and February growth estimates that were industry’s best two-month stretch since February and March, 2014.

>January’s 0.54 percent monthly gain – which was upgraded in last month’s industrial production report – was revised down to 0.39 percent. February’s initially reported 0.51 percent sequential growth was downgraded to 0.35 percent growth.

>The overall March manufacturing monthly production fall-off was led by the worst figures for the automotive sector since last May.

>Real output in vehicles and parts combined – which has led manufacturing’s comeback since the current economic recovery began in mid-2009 – sank by 2.96 percent on month in March, the biggest such drop since last May’s 3.19 percent.

>The results were bad enough to plunge the sector into a technical recession. After-inflation automotive output is off by 0.38 percent since February, 2016.

>Automotive’s poor March owed mainly to a huge 4.77 percent decrease in inflation-adjusted vehicles production – the worst such figure since last May’s 4.94 percent.

>Another consequence of the overall real manufacturing production decline in March – industry’s constant-dollar output is now down on net (by 0.38 percent) since January, 2006.

>And since its pre-recession (all-time) peak, reached in December, 2007, price-adjusted domestic manufacturing output has now fallen by 4.43 percent.

>Overall real U.S. manufacturing output was up 0.98 percent on year in March – faster than its 0.12 percent inflation-adjusted output increase between the previous Marches.

>Automotive’s poor March performance helped lead to an after-inflation 0.83 percent monthly drop in manufacturing’s durable goods super-sector. That decrease was its first since August, and its biggest such shrinkage since winter-affected January, 2014 (0.99 percent).

>Year-on-year, inflation-adjusted durable goods output was up 1.45 percent. Between March, 2015 and March, 2016, if fell by 0.98 percent.

>Since its pre-recession peak, hit in December, 2007, durable goods production after inflation is down by 0.25 percent.

>Real production in the non-durable goods super-sector edged up by 0.13 percent on month in March – its third straight sequential increase.

>Year-on-year, non-durables’ price-adjusted production inched up by only 0.45 percent in March – much slower than its 1.37 percent advance between the previous Marches.

>Since its pre-recession peak – in July, 2007 – output in the non-durables super-sector has shrunk by 9.59 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Fed Revisions Show Weaker U.S. Manufacturing Performance

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durable goods, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recession, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Last Friday, the Federal Reserve came out with revised figures for industrial production going back to 2012, and the results show that President Trump faces a bigger challenge in making American manufacturing great again than even he might have thought.

According to the new data, inflation-adjusted U.S. domestic manufacturing output is further from having regained its pre-recession high than previously estimated. Before the revision was released, as of the latest available (February) figures, American industry was still 2.83 percent smaller in price-adjusted terms than at the recession’s December, 2007 onset. Now, the shortfall since that peak more than nine years ago is judged to be 3.78 percent.

As a result, U.S. after-inflation manufacturing production today is still slightly lower than it was in August, 2006 – more than ten years ago.

The Fed’s new numbers also yield new figures for domestic manufacturing’s annual performance in recent years. Here are the pre-revision Fed estimates of real manufacturing output changes in recent years:

2014: +2.30 percent

2015: +1.20 percent

2016: +0.40 percent

Here are the revised real manufacturing output changes:

2014: +1.80 percent

2015: -0.50 percent

2016: +0.50 percent

The new Fed data also present the performance of manufacturing’s durable goods and non-durable goods sectors in new lights.

According to the pre-revision figures, real durable goods output in February, 2017 had climbed to 2.72 percent higher than its pre-recession peak in December, 2007. Now that increase is pegged at only 0.63 percent. Non-durable goods real output was previously thought to be 9.40 percent below its pre-recession peak (reached in July, 2007). Now the shortfall is judged to be slightly smaller – 9.17 percent.

The best news in the new Fed data concerned upward revisions for this year’s constant-dollar U.S. manufacturing output. The January figure – already upwardly revised to 0.54 percent on month – is now estimated at 0.59 percent. February’s initially reported 0.51 percent seqential improvement was upgraded to 0.54 percent. These are still the best back-to-back monthly gains since February and March, 2014 – but those increases have been revised, too (from 0.70 percent to 1.11 percent, and from 1.07 percent to 0.80 percent, respectively).

Even better, those 2014 rises in part reflected a manufacturing bounceback from an unusually harsh winter.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: An Eight-Year (But Not All-Time) High for Real U.S. Manufacturing Output

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durable goods, Federal Reserve, Great Recession, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recovery, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The Federal Reserve’s new industrial production report today showed that the strongest back to back real increases since February and March, 2014 drove domestic industry to its highest inflation-adjusted output level since June, 2008 – shortly after the official onset of the Great Recession. As a result of the broad-based improvement, manufacturing’s February constant-dollar year-on-year growth (1.39 percent) since April, 2015 (1.46 percent). Three of the last four monthly figures have now been revised positively. A new all-time high was recorded for inflation-adjusted durable goods production, leaving it 2.72 percent larger than at the last recession’s onset.

One big sign of domestic manufacturing’s continuing challenges: Real production is still 2.83 percent below the levels it hit when the Great Recession began – more than nine years ago. Moreover, the bigger manufacturing picture could be significantly altered by the Fed’s release at the end of this month of revisions going back to 2015. 

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on February industrial production: 

>In February, the first consecutive monthly U.S. real manufacturing output increases of 0.50 percent or better in three years helped industry reach its highest inflation-adjusted production levels since the early months of the Great Recession. 

>The 0.51 percent sequential gain in February – which is still preliminary – followed an upwardly revised 0.54 percent gain in January. The result was the first such growth since February and March, 2014 (0.70 percent and 1.07 percent, respectively). 

>Moreover, the new data look even better considering that these 2014 figures in part reflected a bounce-back from an unusually harsh winter. 

>In addition, February’s year-on-year after inflation manufacturing output improvement of 1.39 percent was the best recorded since April, 2015’s 1.46 percent. 

>The February manufacturing improvement was broad-based. Durable goods’ real output rose sequentially by 0.58 percent, and non-durables comparable production was up 0.42 percent. 

>Another sign of breadth – inflation-adjusted manufacturing production increased by 0.45 percent even after stripping out the automotive sector that has led industry’s rebound for much of the current economic recovery. 

>Generally positive revisions also buoyed manufacturing’s recent growth performance. November’s monthly advance was upgraded for a second time, from 0.04 percent to 0.06 percent. December’s initially upgraded sequential improvement of 0.26 percent was revised down a tick to 0.25 percent. But January’s initially reported 0.22 percent gain more than doubled – to 0.54 percent.

>Yet even after these new strides, price-adjusted U.S. manufacturing production still remains 2.83 percent below its level in December, 2007 – when the Great Recession officially began. Further, the Fed’s release on March 31 of revisions going back to 2015 could significantly change the manufacturing data. 

>February’s figures put real durable goods output at a new all-time high. The sector is now 2.72 percent bigger in constant-dollar terms than at the recession’s onset. 

>Further, it’s 1.86 percent year-on-year constant dollar growth was its fastest since November, 2013’s 2.67 percent. 

>In February, non-durable goods’ after-inflation output hit its highest level in more than eight years. The super-sector is now 0.91 percent bigger than it was in November, 2008. 

>But its 0.82 percent annual February growth was only its best since last March’s 0.77 percent. 

>Moreover, non-durable goods output after inflation is still 9.40 percent below its pre-recession peak, reached in July, 2007.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Fed Figures Show US Manufacturing Still on Edge of Recession

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automotive, durable goods, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, non-durable goods, {What's Left of) Our Economy

New Federal Reserve data showed that constant-dollar manufacturing output dipped by 0.03 percent sequentially in November – which enabled the sector to (barely) stay out of technical recession (two or more quarters of cumulative constant-dollar production decline). Industry’s real production is now up by 0.09 percent since November, 2014.

Yet both manufacturing super-sectors – durable and non-durable goods – remained in their own downturns. The former’s remains off by 0.41 percent since November, 2014, and the latter’s by 0.07 percent since August, 2015. Manufacturing’s sequential decline was led in part by a 2.28 percent vehicles-led decrease in after-inflation automotive production – the first fall-off since May. Overall, moreover, manufacturing’s real output remains 4.11 percent below its pre-recession peak – nearly nine years ago.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on November industrial production:

>Inflation-adjusted manufacturing slipped in November by 0.03 percent month-on-month, a small enough decline to enable industry to stay out of the technical recession it exited in October.

>Thanks to this latest bump up, and a slightly positive revision for October (from 0.23 percent real growth to 0.33 percent), after-inflation manufacturing output is now 0.09 percent higher than in November, 2014.

>At the same time, both the durable and non-durable goods super-sectors of manufacturing remained in their own technical recessions – with real output down cumulatively for more than two straight quarters.

>Constant dollar durable goods output fell by 0.28 percent sequentially in November – pushing this indicator to 0.41 percent below its level in November, 2014.

>Constant dollar non-durables output rose by 0.27 percent in November, but the super-sector remained 0.07 percent smaller in real terms than it was in August, 2015.

>The durable goods super-sector’s November problems stemmed largely from a 2.28 percent sequential fall-off in inflation-adjusted automotive production.

>This decrease, the first since May, was led by a 3.73 percent decrease in vehicles output. Real parts production was off, too, but only by 1.30 percent.

>November’s manufacturing results show that the sector’s real production is still down by 4.11 percent since the Great Recession began at the end of 2007 – nearly nine years ago.

>Overall manufacturing production advanced by 0.39 percent year-on-year after inflation in November. Between the previous Novembers, it declined by 0.30 percent.

>November real durable goods production fell fractionally year on year. But this performance beat that registered from November, 2014 to November, 2015, when it fell by 1.34 percent.

>In the nearly nine years since the last recession’s late-2007 onset, real durable goods production has risen by 1.22 percent.

>November’s real year-on-year non-durables output dropped 0.29 percent year-on-year. The previous year, it improved by 0.96 percent.

>Since its pre-recession after-inflation production peak, in July, 2007, real production in non-durable goods has shrunk by 10.43 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: October Saw Manufacturing’s Recession End – by a Hair

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durable goods, Federal Reserve, Great Recession, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recession, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Sorry for the delay, but the new Federal Reserve production figures that came out yesterday contain news definitely worth reporting.  They showed that constant-dollar manufacturing output increased by 0.23 percent sequentially in October – enough to lift the sector (barely) out of a technical recession that had seen its production shrink in cumulative terms for nearly two years.

Yet even 0.38 percent monthly real growth couldn’t end the downturn in the durable goods super-sector, which represents most manufacturing production. Revisions for manufacturing overall were minor but negative. And despite this second straight month of sequential growth for industry, its inflation-adjusted output remained 4.17 percent below the level it hit when the Great Recession began at the end of 2007 – nearly nine years ago.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on October industrial production:

>Inflation-adjusted manufacturing output in October rose by 0.23 percent on month – its second straight increase and an advance strong enough to (barely) pull industry out of a technical recession that had begun in November, 2014.

>Since that month, real manufacturing production is now up – but by just 0.03 percent.

>Yet durable goods industries remained in a technical slump despite growing by 0.38 percent sequentially in real terms in October. Price-adjusted output in this sector (manufacturing’s largest) is still below that of November, 2014 – albeit by a meager 0.04 percent.

>Further, despite the end of that last overall manufacturing recession, industry’s constant-dollar output remains 4.17 percent below that achieved in December, 2007 – when the Great Recession broke out.

>Manufacturing production revisions were mixed. September’s originally reported real monthly output increase of 0.23 percent was downgraded to 0.20 percent and August’s downwardly revised 0.52 percent drop is now judged to have been a 0.54 percent decrease

>Year-on-year, manufacturing’s after-inflation production inched up by only 0.04 percent in October. The comparable figure for the previous Octobers was 0.92 percent.

>Durable goods’ year-on-year real production increase was 0.65 percent in October. That actually bested its performance between October, 2014 and October, 2015 – when the super-sector’s inflation-adjusted output rose just 0.10 percent.

>During the nearly nine years since the Great Recession’s December, 2007 onset, real durable goods production has advanced by 1.60 percent.

>In October, real production grew sequentially in the non-durable goods super-sector of manufacturing – but by a mere 0.05 percent.

>Year-on-year, however, its constant-dollar output was off by 0.70 percent in October. Between October, 2014 and October, 2015, real non-durable goods output rose by 1.90 percent.

>Since its pre-recession after-inflation production peak, in July, 2007, real production in non-durable goods has shrunk by 10.96 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite a September Uptick, Manufacturing’s Broad-Based Recession Drags On

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durable goods, Federal Reserve, Great Recession, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recovery, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The Federal Reserve’s new industrial production data showed that constant-dollar manufacturing output increased by 0.21 percent sequentially in September, but that the sector remained in a technical recession. The downturn extended to both the durable goods and the non-durable goods super-sectors. Total real manufacturing production is still down 0.10 percent since November, 2014.

Mixed revisions included a downgrade (to -0.52 percent) for an August drop-off that was already the worst since wintry January, 2014’s (1.13 percent). After inflation, total manufacturing output is now down 4.29 percent from its level at the end of 2007, when the Great Recession began. In other words, the manufacturing decline triggered by that recession never ended.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on September industrial production:

>Inflation-adjusted manufacturing output in September rose by 0.21 percent on month but the increase wasn’t enough to end the sector’s technical recession.

>Constant-dollar manufacturing production is 0.10 percent lower than the levels it hit in November, 2014.

>Both the durable goods and non-durables super-sectors remained in recession, too. The former’s real output is now down 0.69 percent since November, 2014. The latter’s is off by 0.14 percent since August, 2015.

>Overall manufacturing revisions were mixed. Especially important: August’s 0.43 percent sequential inflation-adjusted decrease – the biggest since wintry January, 2014’s 1.13 percent – was downgraded to a 0.52 percent drop-off.

>Year-on-year, total manufacturing output inched up by 0.12 percent in September in real terms, but August’s 0.24 percent annual decline is now pegged at a 0.28 percent decrease. Between September, 2014 and September, 2015, after-inflation manufacturing production rose by 0.76 percent.

>In toto, constant-dollar manufacturing output is now 4.29 percent lower than at the end of 2007 – when the Great Recession began. In other words, despite a strong output comeback early in the current economic recovery, the post-2007 manufacturing slump still hasn’t ended.

>In durable goods, which accounts for more than half of domestic manufacturing, real production dipped month-on-month by 0.03 percent – enough to continue its own technical recession. But revisions were positive.

>Durable goods’ yearly real production increased by 0.26 percent in September – an improvement ove the fractional gain recorded between the two previous Septembers. The August annual increase, however, was reduced from a 0.12 percent improvement to one that was fractional.

>Real durable goods production is now up only 0.94 percent since its pre-recession peak at the end of 2007.

>In the also slumping non-durable goods super-sector, growth stayed on a roller-coaster in September. Sequential real output climbed by 0.50 percent on month – its best such showing since the 0.74 gain in January. But August’s 0.22 percent monthly decrease was revised down to 0.52 percent – the worst such performance since April’s 0.57 percent decline.

>Non-durable goods’ real output fell annually in September by 0.06 percent, and August’s 0.40 percent yearly drop is now pegged at a 0.63 percent decrease. From September, 2014 to September, 2015, real non-durables output increased by 1.63 percent.

>Since its pre-recession peak, in July, 2007, real output of non-durable goods is now down 10.49 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: An Awful August Helped Drag U.S. Manufacturing Back into Recession

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automotive, durable goods, Federal Reserve, Great Recession, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recession, recovery, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The Federal Reserve’s new industrial production data showed that the August monthly sequential real manufacturing production fall-off (0.43 percent), the worst since wintry January, 2014’s (1.13 percent), plunged American factories back into its latest technical recession. Revisions going back to April were all negative, and major downward net automotive revisions helped drag the durable goods super-sector back into technical recession territory, too – where it joined non-durables.

As a result, America’s after-inflation manufacturing production is now 4.45 percent below the level it hit when the last recession began more than eight years ago. That is, the manufacturing slump triggered by the Great Recession still hasn’t ended.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on August industrial production:

>Inflation-adjusted manufacturing output in August fell by 0.43 percent month-to-month – the worst such decrease since wintry January, 2014 (1.13 percent), and enough to bring domestic industry back into its latest technical recession.

>After rebounding during early in the current U.S. economic recovery, real manufacturing output is now down on net since November, 2014 (by 0.53 percent).

>Aggravating manufacturing’s troubles were negative monthly output revisions going back to April.

>July’s previously reported monthly increase of 0.55 percent – which would have been the best such improvement since last July’s 0.68 percent – is now pegged at 0.39 percent.

>The June after-inflation manufacturing production rise, already downgraded, was cut from 0.32 percent to 0.24 percent. May’s upwardly revised real output decline of 0.21 percent is now judged to be a 0.23 percent decrease. And April’s upwardly revised 0.11 percent sequential production increase was revised down to 0.09 percent on month.

>The automotive revisions were especially large – and negative on net.

>The constant dollar July monthly output increase for vehicles and parts combined was cut nearly in half – from1.91 percent to 1.01 percent.

>Auto parts production for the month was actually upgrade significantly – from 2.30 percent real sequential growth to 3.57 percent.

>But a vehicles production gain of 1.76 percent in real terms is now estimated as a 0.94 percent decrease from June’s level.

>Nonetheless, July total automotive inflation-adjusted production and parts output would still have been record levels as of last month, and combined vehicles and parts production hit a new after-inflation all-time high in August.

>Year-on-year real output in manufacturing overall fell by 0.24 percent in August – its first such decline since last December. Between August, 2014 and August, 2015, inflation-adjusted manufacturing production rose by 1.15 percent.

>Manufacturing’s constant-dollar June and July output increases were also downgraded, though both remained improvements.

>August’s on-month manufacturing downturn and the negative revisions mean that the sector’s overall output is now 4.45 percent below its levels when the last recession officially began – more than eight years ago, in December, 2007. That is, by this measure, the Great Recession has still not ended for domestic manufacturing.

>In the durable goods super-sector, which accounts for more than half of domestic manufacturing, real production shrank sequentially by 0.61 percent. That’s the biggest such decrease since March’s 0.73 percent.

>July’s monthly durable goods production increase was downgraded from 0.57 percent to 0.43 percent. The upgraded June advance of 0.73 percent was increased again. But May’s upgraded 0.47 percent inflation-adjusted monthly production dip was downgraded back to a 0.49 percent decrease.

>Durable goods’ yearly real production dipped by 0.12 percent in August. Between the previous Augusts, it inched up by 0.51 percent.

>July’s previously reported annual durables production gain of 0.57 percent was cut in half – to 0.28 percent. But June’s downgraded 0.32 percent was doubled – to 0.64 percent.

>Real durable goods production is now up only 0.85 percent since its pre-recession peak at the end of 2007.

>The non-durable goods super-sector remained in technical recession, in part because its inflation-adjusted output slipped by 0.22 percent sequentially in August. Real output is now down on net since March, 2015.

>July’s monthly real non-durables output gain was downwardly revised from 0.45 percent to 0.34 percent. The downgraded June figure of 0.32 percent is now judged to have been a 0.47 percent drop.

>Non-durable goods’ real output fell annually in August by 0.40 percent. From August, 2014 to August, 2015, this production increased by 1.92 percent.

>July’s previously reported inflation-adjusted annual output increase of 0.21 percent is now pegged at a 0.01 percent decline, and June’s downgraded 0.32 percent advance was cut again, to 0.21 percent.

>Since its pre-recession peak, in July, 2007, real output of non-durable goods is now down 10.73 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Record July Automotive Output Leads Manufacturing Out of its Latest Recession

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automotive, durable goods, Federal Reserve, industrial production, inflation-adjusted growth, manufacturing, non-durable goods, recession, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The Federal Reserve’s new industrial production data showed that a rise in automotive industry output in July to a new monthly record helped lift the overall manufacturing sector out of its latest technical recession. The all-time high in combined vehicles and parts production after inflation – its second straight – also ended a downturn in the durable goods super-sector. Motor vehicle parts production set its second straight new monthly record in July as well.

Manufacturing’s overall sequential real output increase of 0.55 percent was its best such performance in a year, and revisions were mildly positive. Nonetheless, America’s after-inflation manufacturing production is still 3.78 percent below the level it hit when the last recession began more than eight years ago. That is, the manufacturing slump triggered by the Great Recession still hasn’t ended.

Here are the manufacturing highlights of the Federal Reserve’s new release on July industrial production:

>A record month for inflation-adjusted automotive production helped fuel a 0.55 percent monthly rise in real U.S. manufacturing output in June and end a recession in industry overall and in the durable goods super-sector.

>Real output of vehicles and parts combined in July rose by 1.91 percent sequentially and eclipsed the June’s old record total.

>Auto parts production led the way, with its 2.30 percent sequential real growth in July resulting in a second straight monthly record as well.

>Vehicles production was up 1.76 percent in constant dollar terms over June’s level.

>This strong automotive sector performance ended a technical manufacturing recession that had begun in November, 2014, and a durable goods downturn that had dated from last July.

>Overall manufacturing’s 0.55 percent monthly real production increase in July was its best such total since last July’s 0.68 percent increase.

>Revisions were slightly positive. June’s previously reported 0.47 percent real sequential output advance was revised down to 0.32 percent. But May’s upwardly revised 0.27 percent monthly inflation-adjusted production decline was upgraded again – to a 0.21 percent drop. And April’s downgraded 0.08 percent real production increase was revised up to 0.11 percent.

>Year-on-year real output in manufacturing overall rose by 0.42 percent in July – lower than the 0.85 percent after-inflation annual improvement logged between July, 2014 and July, 2015.

>In addition, June’s previously reported 0.64 percent real annual output rise was is now pegged at only 0.55 percent, but May’s 0.14 percent annual decrease was revised to a 0.03 percent increase.

>The July overall manufacturing figures along with the mixed revisions left the sector’s overall output 3.78 percent below its levels when the last recession officially began – more than eight years ago, in December, 2007. That is, by this measure, the Great Recession has still not ended for domestic manufacturing.

>Thanks largely to the automotive sector, durable goods production rose month-on-month by 0.63 percent in July after inflation. June’s initially reported 0.87 percent advance was revised down to 0.85 percent, but May’s upgraded 0.51 percent sequential real production drop was upgraded to a 0.47 percent decrease.

>Durable goods’ yearly real production advanced by 0.57 percent in July – off slightly from June growth that was upgraded from 0.71 percent to 0.73 percent. But the latest annual July durable goods numbers improved on the preceding July-to-July performance, which slipped fractionally.

>Real durable goods production is now up 1.76 percent since its pre-recession peak at the end of 2007.

>The non-durable goods super-sector, however, remained in technical recession, even though inflation-adjusted output increased by 0.45 percent on a monthly basis. Real production is down on net since last October.

>Part of the reason was a June constant dollar monthly production decrease that was revised from 0.05 percent to 0.33 percent. May’s sequential growth performance was upgraded from 0.03 percent to 0.10 percent.

>Non-durable goods’ real output was up annually in July by only 0.21 percent. Moreover, the previously reported June figure was downgraded from 0.51 percent to 0.32 percent, although May’s 0.24 percent increase is now pegged at 0.31 percent.

>Since its pre-recession peak, in July, 2007, real output of non-durable goods is now down 10.33 percent.