(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite Strength in February, Manufacturing’s Jobs Recession Continued

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BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

February’s preliminary U.S. manufacturing jobs figures showed that the sector boosted payrolls by 28,000 – its best performance since the same total for January, 2016, but that its jobs recession continued, with employment down on net since that month. Manufacturing wage growth, moreover, showed some weakness, as average hourly pay improved by just 0.04 percent on month (lagging the overall private sector) and the yearly improvement of 2.89 percent was mediocre by the last few months’ standards.

The positive manufacturing jobs revisions for December and January brightened former President Obama’s record for employment creation in the sector, but the increase still fell short of his stated second term goal of creating one million new positions in industry by 625,000.

Despite the good February monthly advance – plus the sector’s first annual employment increase (7,000) since last July – manufacturing jobs as a share of the non-farm total hit a new record low of 8.49 percent. Nor did the February results change manufacturing’s status as an American employment and wages laggard. Since the mid-2009 onset of the current economic recovery, industry employment is up only 5.59 percent, versus the 11.28 percent for the nation as a whole, and pre-inflation wages have risen by 14.51 percent versus the 17.84 percent rise for the entire private sector.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (February) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>The first full (though preliminary) monthly tally of President Trump’s manufacturing job creation record showed that even a strong February – which saw industry’s payrolls grow by 28,000 on net – wasn’t enough to pull the sector out of its latest jobs recession.

>Although the February results were manufacturing’s best since January, 2016’s (which were identical), the sector’s employment is still below that month’s total by 5,000 on net.

>In addition, manufacturing wages displayed signs of weakness in February. Their pre-inflation sequential increase of 0.04 percent trailed that of the overall private sector (0.23 percent) for the second straight month.

>Year-on-year, however, manufacturing’s wage performance looks better. Hourly pay rose by 2.89 percent versus the 2.80 percent figure for the private sector. Manufacturing held the edge in January, too, but the gap was wider (2.89 percent versus 2.60 percent).

>The new Labor Department release also showed that former President Obama’s record as a manufacturing jobs creator was somewhat better than previously reported. Net new manufacturing jobs still rose much less (a total of 375,000) than the one million goal he set for his second term. But positive revisions for January and February boosted manufacturing positions by 13,000 during those years.

>The last three months’ totals also did nothing to halt the historic slide in manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment. In February, this figure hit a new record low of 8.49 percent.

>On the brighter side, the February yearly manufacturing jobs increase of 7,000 was the first such advance since the 7,000 annual growth last July.  Nonetheless, it compared poorly with the 69,000 year-on-year gain reported for the previous Februarys.  

>Even so, manufacturing remains a jobs and wages laggard during the current economic recovery. Since the economy returned to expansion mode in June, 2009, industry employment is up by only 5.59 percent – less than half the 11.28 percent advance recorded by the private sector as a whole.

>Since its 2010 employment bottom, manufacturing has now regained 929,000 (40.51 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 16.217 million.

>Moreover, whereas total private sector employment is now 6.41 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, in late 2007, manufacturing employment is still 9.92 percent lower.

>On the wage front, pre-inflation manufacturing pay has risen by 14.51 percent during this recovery – again slower than the 17.84 percent for the entire private sector.

>Adjusting for inflation, manufacturing’s wage performance looks much worse. The latest figures only cover January, but they show that real hourly pay in the sector is up only 0.65 percent since the recovery began in mid-2009 – more than seven years ago. Real wages in the private sector overall are up 3.39 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite Strong December, Manufacturing Jobs Recession Continues & Sector Suffers Worst Year Since 2009

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inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

In December, American domestic manufacturing employment enjoyed its best monthly increase (17,000) since January (18,000). But these gains were not enough to pull the sector out of its latest jobs recession, as employment is down on net by 24,000 since December, 2014. Just as disturbing, the sector in 2016 suffered its first full calendar-year of job loss (45,000) since recession-plagued 2009 (1.375 million).

Manufacturing’s pre-inflation wage gains rebounded in December (by 0.50 percent) from November’s 0.45 percent monthly decline, and also outpaced the private sector year-on-year – by 3.37 percent to 2.93 percent. But in both current-dollar and price-adjusted terms, industry remains a laggard during the current economic recovery. Manufacturing employment as a share of total non-farm employment also remained at its latest all-time low – just under 8.45 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (December) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>American domestic manufacturing gained 17,000 jobs on a monthly basis in December – its best such performance since January’s 18,000 improvement. But the gains weren’t big enough to end the sector’s two-year long jobs recession.

>Since December, 2014, U.S. manufacturing employment is down on net by 24,000 – its longest slump since the Great Recession.

>Moreover, the December data (which are still preliminary) show that in 2016, American manufacturing lost 45,000 jobs on net. That’s its first full calendar-year of net employment decline since 2009 — when the sector’s payrolls cratered by 1.375 million even as the recession was coming to an end.

> In 2015, manufacturing gained 26,000 jobs. 

>Better news came on the wage front. Pre-inflation hourly pay in manufacturing rose by 0.50 percent on month – better than the 0.39 percent improvement for the private sector as a whole.

>Manufacturing wage increases also topped those in the private sector on an annual basis – by a 3.37 percent to 2.93 percent margin.

>In real terms, however, the story for manufacturing is much more mixed.

>The latest Labor Department figures are from November, and show that manufacturing’s month-on-month performance (real wages fell by 0.64 percent) was much worse than the private sector’s (down 0.28 percent).

>Year-on-year, however, manufacturing’s real wage increase in November (1.12 percent) beat the overall private sector’s (0.85 percent).

>Nevertheless, since the recovery began in mid-2009 – more than seven years ago – inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages have risen only 1.03 percent. Real private sector wages have increased considerably faster – by 3.69 percent.

>In pre-inflation terms, moreover, manufacturing wage gains also trail those of the private sector during the recovery – 14.55 percent to 17.43 percent.

>The net new jobs created in December still left manufacturing’s share of non-farm American jobs (the Labor Department’s definition of the U.S. employment universe) at just under 8.45 percent. That’s virtually the same proportion as in November, and another record low.

>The latest revisions to the manufacturing jobs figures netted out to zero. November’ originally reported 4,000 job loss was revised to a (still preliminary) 7,000 decrease. But October’s 5,000 decrease is now judged to have been just 4,000 in the final (for now) tally, and September’s 8,000 employment decline was upgraded to 6,000.

>Since its 2010 employment bottom, manufacturing has regained 822,000 (35.85 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 15.823 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 6.07 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.70 percent lower.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Wages Now Surging Amid Lengthening Manufacturing Jobs Recession

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, Labor Department, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

American domestic manufacturing extended its jobs recession in April, with the 4,000 sequential net increase not nearly big enough to prevent a net employment decline that now stretches back to January, 2015. April’s performance represented the sector’s first monthly improvement since January.

Yet even though industry has lost 14,000 net jobs over the last 15 months, the sector’s wages jumped by 0.70 percent in April over March’s upwardly revised level and by 3.02 percent year on year. The former increase was the biggest since recessionary November, 2008 and the latter the biggest since October, 2009 – when employment was still falling. At the same time, manufacturing jobs as a share of total non-farm jobs hit a new all-time low in April (8.54 percent), and revisions of prior months’ poor sequential job creation figures were only 2,000 to the upside.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (April) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>American domestic manufacturing increased its employment levels by 4,000 on net in April – its first monthly increase in two months. But the figures still mean that the sector’s jobs recession extended into its fifteenth month – its longest since the Great Recession – with employment down on net since January, 2015 (by 14,000 jobs).

>Yet the April figures also show the biggest monthly and yearly manufacturing wage increases since the Great Recession and its immediate aftermath.

>On month, April current-dollar manufacturing wages rose by 0.70 percent – the strongest such performance since November, 2008 (0.71 percent), when the economy was still slumping.

>The year-on-year April manufacturing wage increase of 3.02 percent was the biggest annual wage rise since October 2009 (3.03 percent) – when the economy was only four months into its current recovery, and when manufacturing employment was still falling on net.

>During those recessionary and early recovery days, anecdotal evidence suggested that manufacturing companies were reducing payrolls by laying off their least experienced, and lowest paid workers – thus resulting in statistical wage increases. Similar moves could explain the new disparity between employment and compensation trends.

>According to the April figures, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment (the Labor Department’s U.S. employment universe) hit its latest new record low – 8.54 percent. The previous new record – 8.55 percent – was set in March.

>This morning’s revisions to the March and February manufacturing job changes were positive, but minimal. March’s 29,000 monthly loss – the worst since the 34,000 decrease in December, 2009 – remained unchanged, but February’s previously reported 18,000 payroll reductions were revised upward to 16,000.

>April’s manufacturing job results also produced the second straight month of year-on-year employment contraction. Since April, 2015, the sector’s payrolls have shrunk by a net total of 19,000. March’s annual manufacturing job losses were revised from 28,000 to 25,000, but February’s previously reported 5,000 yearly job shrinkage was revised up to growth of 7,000.

>Between April, 2014 and April, 2015, manufacturing gained 177,000 jobs and the comparable March improvement was 193,000.

>Since manufacturing hit its 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 844,000 (36.81 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by a 14.581 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now five percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.54 percent lower.

>The manufacturing wage figures in the new jobs report also compared favorably with the data from the private sector overall. April’s 0.70 percent monthly rise in manufacturing wages more than doubled the 0.31 percent improvement for private sector as a whole.

>Manufacturing’s 3.02 percent year-on-year April wage rise also handily beat the private sector’s 2.49 percent – itself a strong gain.

>Manufacturing wages are also showing impressive momentum. The April annual manufacturing wage increase was much higher than March’s 2.47 percent, which itself was upwardly revised. That March rise, in turn, beat February’s 2.44 percent. January’s year-on-year wage performance was better, however – 2.52 percent.

>Longer term, manufacturing’s wage-laggard status remained intact, but the gap with the private sector has been narrowing. Since the current economic recovery began, in mid-2009, its pre-inflation wages are up less (12.51 percent) than overall private sector wages (15.31 percent).

>Examining manufacturing’s inflation-adjusted wages reveals similar trends. The latest Labor Department figures are from March and show that its monthly increase in manufacturing wages was stronger (0.28 percent) than that of the private sector overall (0.19 percent).

>Year-on-year, March real manufacturing wages were up 1.60 percent, versus 1.52 percent for the private sector.

>Yet since the recovery began in mid-2009 – nearly seven years ago – inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages have risen only 0.84 percent. Real private sector wages have increased four times faster – by 3.78 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Worst Monthly Manufacturing Job Losses in Six-Plus Years Lengthen Industry’s Employment Recession

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Employment, Jobs, jobs report, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

In March, manufacturing suffered its worst monthly jobs losses (29,000) since December, 2009 (34,000). In tandem with negative revisions, these figures sank the sector into an employment recession that’s now lasted 16 months – its longest such stretch since the recession. Manufacturing also experienced its first yearly jobs decrease since September, 2010, and its share of total non-farm employment fell to another historic low – 8.55 percent.

Manufacturing’s February and January jobs revisions were both downgrades, but the sector’s pre-inflation wages rose sequentially for the third straight month (due in part to upward revisions). Its year-on-year gains (2.35 percent), moreover, topped those of the overall private sector (2.25 percent).

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (March) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>A 29,000 monthly jobs loss in March – the worst since December, 2009’s 34,000 early in the current economic recovery – extended manufacturing’s employment recession to 16 months. The span of cumulative job loss stretching back to December, 2014 is the sector’s longest since the previous national economic downturn.

>The March decrease coupled with negative revisions also produced manufacturing’s first year-on-year employment shrinkages since September, 2010 (-28,000). A monthly February downgrade resulted in that month’s employment shrinking annually by 5,000, and March’s preliminary figure was -27,000.

>Between March, 2014 and March, 2015, manufacturing gained 193,000 net jobs.

>All these developments combined to push industry’s share of total non-farm employment as a share of total non-farm jobs down to another low since records have been kept – 8.55 percent.

>The new data changed February’s 16,000 job loss to 18,000, and January’s already downwardly revised 23,000 gain to 18,000. December’s downwardly revised 6,000 monthly gain remained unchanged.

>Since manufacturing hit its 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 838,000 (36.54 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by a 14.435 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 4.87 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.58 percent lower.

>The manufacturing wage figures in the new jobs report were better than the employment figures. Before adjusting for inflation, manufacturing wages rose 0.27 percent in March over February levels, and the February sequential change was revised from a 0.08 percent decline to a 0.08 percent gain. January’s 0.35 percent gain remained unchanged.

>The March manufacturing monthly wage gain only slightly trailed the 0.28 percent improvement for the private sector as a whole.

>Manufacturing’s yearly March wage increase of 2.35 percent actually exceeded that for the overall private sector (2.25 percent). It was also significantly higher than the 1.50 percent advance between the previous Marches.

>Yet the March manufacturing wage increase was smaller than February’s upwardly revised 2.40 percent, and the lowest since November’s 2.33 percent.

>Longer term, manufacturing’s wage-laggard status remained intact.. Since the current economic recovery began, in mid-2009, its pre-inflation wages are up less (11.60 percent) than overall private sector wages (14.86 percent).

>Over the long run, manufacturing’s wages have under-performed after adjusting for inflation as well. The latest Labor Department figures are from February, and actually showed that in real terms, manufacturing wages rose sequentially by 0.09 percent from January levels, whereas overall private sector wages flat-lined..

>Year-on-year, though, manufacturing’s 1.22 percent real wage increase slightly trailed the private sector’s 1.23 percent.

>And since the recovery began in mid-2009, real manufacturing wages are up only 0.37 percent, whereas inflation-adjusted pay in the private sector is up 3.39 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite December Gains, Manufacturing is Still in a Jobs Recession

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Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Manufacturing’s job-creation performance reversed course in December, with the 8,000 employment gain its best monthly figure since July’s 9,000, and upward revisions for November and October. But these advances were not strong enough to lift the sector out of a technical jobs recession, as employment is still 2,000 below May levels. Moreover, manufacturing’s December 30,000 year-on-year jobs increase was its weakest since July, 2013’s 22,000.

Largely as a result, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment hit another new record low – 8.61 percent. Wages, moreover, fell on month for the first time in six months and their improvement – along with that of the sector’s employment – remains a major laggard during the current economic recovery.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (December) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>December brought some much-needed good news on the manufacturing jobs front, as the sector enjoyed its best job-creation month (8,000) since July’s 11,000. Revisions were positive as well, with November’s initially reported 1,000 decline now judged to be a 2,000 increase, and October’s 1,000 improvement upgraded again to 3,000.

>Nonetheless, these increases were not strong enough to lift manufacturing out of a technical jobs recession. Its employment levels are still down cumulatively by 2,000 over the last seven months.

>Manufacturing’s 30,000 year-on-year December boost in employment, moreover, was the weakest since July, 2013’s 22,000. In fact, between December, 2013 and December, 2014, manufacturing employment rose by 215,000.

>Largely as a result, manufacturing’s total December employment of 12.331 million hit another all-time low as a share of total non-farm employment – 8.61 percent. When manufacturing hit its last employment nadir, in February and March, 2010, its share of total non-farm employment was 10.69 percent and 10.67 percent, respectively.

>Since manufacturing hit its 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 878,000 (38.29 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 14.069 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 4.54 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.29 percent lower.

>Manufacturing remained a major wage laggard during the current economic recovery as well in December. During that month alone, its slight sequential pre-inflation wage decline (0.04 percent) equaled that of the overall private sector. But its year-on-year wage improvement of 2.49 percent – its best since March, 2014’s 2.53 percent – still trailed the private sector’s 2.52 percent.

>Moreover, by September, that good March, 2014 yearly gain had been cut nearly in half – to 1.35 percent. It’s an open question whether the latest wage increases will last longer.

>Longer term, manufacturing’s wage-laggard status is even clearer. Since the current economic recovery began, in mid-2009, its pre-inflation wages are up less (10.73 percent) than overall private sector wages (13.90 percent).

>Manufacturing’s wage performance has lagged after adjusting for inflation as well. The latest Labor Department figures are from November, and showed that in real terms, manufacturing wages were unchanged from October levels. Real private sector wages in November only inched up on month – by 0.09 percent. But they outperformed manufacturing.

>Year-on-year, November real wages were up by 1.61 percent for manufacturing, and by 1.83 percent for the private sector.

>And since the recovery began in mid-2009, real manufacturing wages are down 0.19 percent, whereas inflation-adjusted pay in the private sector is up 2.71 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: November Jobs Drop Prolongs Manufacturing Employment Recession

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Manufacturing’s job-creation performance in November continued contrasting strikingly with that of the overall U.S. economy; in fact, even as non-farm employment gains have continued to accelerate over the last three months, the manufacturing jobs picture has stagnated. Thanks to the sector’s third sequential jobs decrease in the last four months, it has lost employment on net since January, with the 10-month cumulative decline qualifying technically as a recession.

In addition, manufacturing’s share of total employment has plunged to a record low 8.62 percent and its year-on-year gain of 36,000 net new positions was the worst such figure since July, 2013’s 22,000. November manufacturing wages under-performed, too, with their 0.08 percent monthly gain half of the overall private sector’s, and the 2.08 percent year-on-year improvement also trailing the private sector’s 2.31 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (November) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>Even though U.S. non-farm jobs grew significantly on month in November and revisions were strong, manufacturing lost 1,000 net jobs compared with October’s employment levels.  It thereby prolonged its first technical jobs recession since the sector hit its last employment bottom in early 2010. Manufacturing employment has declined on net since January.

>This monthly manufacturing jobs decrease is the third in the last four months. Revisions, moreover, were only mildly positive. October’s unchanged job figure for the sector is now judged to have been a 1,000 gain, and September’s 9,000 employment decline was revised up to an 8,000 decrease.

>Total manufacturing employment of 12.318 million in November means that industry now accounts for 8.62 percent of all non-farm jobs – a new record low. When manufacturing hit its last employment nadir, in February and March, 2010, its share of total non-farm employment was 10.69 percent and 10.67 percent, respectively.

>Manufacturing’s November year-on-year employment gains were lackluster as well. The 36,000 annual increase was the lowest such total since July, 2013’s 22,000. Between November, 2013 and November, 2014, manufacturing employment rose by 210.000.

>Since manufacturing hit its 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 865,000 (37.72 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 13.742 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 4.26 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.39 percent lower.

>Manufacturing remained a major recovery era wage laggard as well in November. Pre-inflation wages rose on month by 0.08 percent. But in the private sector, the improvement was twice as great – 0.16 percent. Moreover, manufacturing’s latest monthly wage hike also trailed October’s 0.16 percent, though this gain was revised up from 0.08 percent.

>Year-on-year, current dollar manufacturing wages increased by 2.08 percent – also less than the 2.31 percent figure for the private sector. The increase was much better than manufacturing’s previous November-November rise of 1.59 percent, but slightly lower than October’s upwardly revised 2.13 percent yearly advance.

>Longer term, manufacturing’s remained a national wage laggard, too. Since the current economic recovery began, its pre-inflation wages are up less (10.69 percent) than overall private sector wages (13.94 percent).

>Manufacturing’s wage performance has lagged after adjusting for inflation as well. The latest Labor Department figures are from October, and showed that in real terms, manufacturing wages fell on month for the first time since June – by 0.09 percent. Real private sector wages in October managed a 0.19 percent sequential increase.

>Year-on-year, October real wages were up by 1.91 percent for manufacturing, and by 2.42 percent for the private sector.

>And since the recovery began in mid-2009, real manufacturing wages are down 0.28 percent, whereas inflation-adjusted pay in the private sector is up 2.62 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Evidence that Manufacturing Job Gains Have Been Overstated

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Business Employment Dynamics, Great Recession, Jobs, Labor Department, manufacturing, manufacturing renaissance, non-farm payrolls, recovery, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Last week, I reported on a set of U.S. government jobs statistics that were new to me, and that painted a decidedly bearish picture of the American employment scene and indeed of the entire economy’s chances of avoiding a recession in the near future. Since then, I’ve learned two other important facts about this data series, which is called the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) series.

First, although it comes out quarterly, and with a two-three-quarter lag, it’s based on a sample more than ten times bigger than that used by the Labor Department’s main jobs statistics – the non-farm payrolls (NFP) numbers that come out in the form of breathlessly followed monthly reports. Second, according to the BED, manufacturing’s jobs gains during the current recovery have been even weaker than described by the NFP numbers. (So, by the way, is overall job creation, at least per the latest first quarter, 2015 BED figures.)

The ongoing recovery began in mid-2009, so for convenience’s sake, let’s look at the annual data from 2010 on. According to the NFP figures, on a December-to-December basis, from 2010 through the end of last year, domestic manufacturers added a net of 706,000 jobs. If you go January-to-January, the number is just 642,000. But both figures are higher than the comparable BED total of 628,000.

For the first quarter of 2015, moreover, the NFP numbers tell us that domestic manufacturers generated 26,000 net new jobs on a December-to-March basis, and 9,000 on a January-to-April basis. But the BED data reports that they generated no net new jobs at all during this period.

At least as interesting, according to the BED figures, gross manufacturing job gains of 385,000 in the first quarter of this year represented the lowest quarter total since the second quarter of 2009 – when the Great Recession ended and the sector on net was still hemorrhaging jobs. But the 385,000 job loss figure was pretty standard for the recovery once its early days of strong manufacturing snap-back from an historic recessionary dive had passed.

In theory, subsequent BED reports will reverse the pattern so far and reveal manufacturing employment figures more robust than those in the NFP reports. But if they don’t, it’s clear that all those claims of an historic American manufacturing renaissance will look farther off the mark than ever.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Jobs Inched Up but Other Measures Swooned in June

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, real wages, recovery, wage inflation, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

June’s 4,000 monthly net employment increase for manufacturing wasn’t enough to prevent the sector from entering its worst seven-month job-creation stretch since April-November, 2013. On an annual basis, moreover, manufacturing’s June 161,000 employment improvement was lower than May’s 180,000 and its poorest year-on-year performance since the previous May.

Largely as a result, manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment hit a new record low last month – 8.70 percent. And manufacturing wages fell in June month-to-month (by 0.20 percent) for the first time since December – a worse performance than even the flat line turned in by the overall private sector.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (June) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>June’s preliminary jobs report shows that manufacturing employment rose by 4,000 on net during the month – lower than May’s 7,000 improvement, which revisions left unchanged. April’s 1,000 net jobs gain for the sector remained unchanged, too.

>The decent June manufacturing employment news ended there, though. Last month’s gains were too small to prevent the sector from entering its worst seven-month net job-creation stretch (56,000) since April-November, 2013’s 66,000.

>In addition, the yearly manufacturing job advance revealed in the June figures (161,000) not only trailed May’s 180,000, but represented the worst such increase since May, 2013-2014’s 147,000. the June year-on-year rise was also lower than the 172,000 net new manufacturing jobs created from June, 2013-June, 2014.

>Largely as a result, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment dropped to a new record low in June – 8.70 percent. At the sector’s recessionary employment bottom (February and March, 2010), manufacturing jobs accounted for a much higher percentage of the official U.S. jobs universe – 10.69 percent and 10.67 percent, respectively.

>Since manufacturing hit that last 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 885,000 (38.60 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has since increased net employment by 12.759 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 3.41 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.24 percent lower.

>Far worse than manufacturing’s June job creation performance was its wage performance last month. The sector’s current dollar wages fell by 0.20 percent on month – the first such drop since last December (0.36 percent). In June, manufacturing wages inched up only by (a downwardly revised) 0.08 percent. Both changes lagged even the private sector’s disappointing on-month wage flat line in June and its 0.24 percent improvement in May.

>Just as important, June’s year-on-year current dollar manufacturing wage increase was only 1.05 percent – the slowest advance since January, 2012-2013’s 0.67 percent. The latest annual increase also trailed the previous June’s 1.85 percent and June 2012-2013’s 1.89 percent.

>By contrast, overall private sector wages increased by two percent in June year-on-year. 

>Since the current economic recovery began, pre-inflation manufacturing wages are up less (8.95 percent) than private sector wages (12.59 percent).

>Manufacturing’s wage performance has been even worse after adjusting for inflation. The latest Labor Department figures report on May, and will be updated later this month. But they showed that in real terms, manufacturing wages flat-lined from January through April (with new revisions wiping out that latter month’s penny increase), and then sank by 0.38 percent in May.

>Real total private sector wages dropped on a monthly basis in May, too, but by half that rate – 0.19 percent. From January through May, they are down by that same amount.

>Year-on-year, inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages rose in May by only 1.63 percent – less than April’s 1.82 percent, which itself was downwardly revised. May real overall private sector wages were up considerably more – by 2.23 percent, though that figure has been revised down as well.

>Moreover, as of these preliminary April data, inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages are down by 1.12 percent since the recovery officially began in mid-2009. Real wages for the entire private sector are up 2.03 percent during this period.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Why it’s a Larry David Jobs Recovery

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administrative and support services, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Employment, Jobs, Larry David, leisure and hospitality, low-wage jobs, non-farm payrolls, recovery, retail, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

I thought I was all finished (mildly) trashing the monthly jobs report that occasioned so much euphoria in the economics world upon its release last Friday, when a quick perusal revealed another big problem. Not only did the Labor Department survey confirm a trend of more and more employment creation coming from parts of the economy heavily reliant on government subsidies (like health care). It also made clear that ever more of the jobs being generated during the current recovery are low-wage positions – which can’t be a sign of anything like real economic health.

First, some definitions. By low-wage, I mean jobs whose hourly wage is less than the private sector average ($24.96 as of the latest available – May – pre-inflation data). Three sectors make up a representative sample: retail, leisure and hospitality, and administrative and support services. Not that these industries contain all of America’s low-wage workers, but taken together they’re a good proxy.

That jobs report last Friday told us that in toto, those industries accounted for 27.68 percent of all U.S. non-farm jobs (the Labor Department’s American jobs universe) in May. (These figures are still preliminary.) But it also made clear that they fueled 45.36 percent of the economy’s overall job growth that month. That’s both much higher than their share of employment and much higher than their January monthly contribution: 29.40 percent.

The year-on-year trends are less dramatic, but they tell the same story. From January, 2014 to January, 2015, low-wage jobs amounted to 34.42 percent of all non-farm jobs the economy added. In May, this year-on-year improvement was up to 35.40 percent.

In fact, since the recovery began – technically in the middle of 2009 – total non-farm employment is up 8.20 percent – 10.735 million jobs. But these low-wage positions increased on net by 14.10 percent – 4.8453 million jobs. Put differently, the low-wage sectors have generated 45.14 percent of all the nation’s jobs comeback since the recession officially ended.

Of course, it’s a free country, so economists and others can interpret these results as they wish. But it’s clear to me that the nation’s enthusiasm about jobs trends should be curbed – which would make this a Larry David Jobs Recovery.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: May Manufacturing Employment Inches Up but Sector’s Share of Total Jobs Hits Record Low

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Employment, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

May’s monthly manufacturing jobs gain of 7,000 represented industry’s best such performance since January, but the 181,000 yearly increase was the lowest since June, 2014. In addition, the last six months have been manufacturing’s worst such job-creation stretch since May to November, 2013. Partly as a result, the sector’s share of total non-farm employment hit a new all-time low of 8.71 percent.

Manufacturing wages, moreover, rose a measly 0.12 percent on month – the least since December’s drop and much lower than the 0.32 percent gain for the private sector overall, a pattern that, like the job-creation lag, has characterized the entire recovery. Congress’ passage of fast track trade negotiating authority for President Obama figures to expose this vital sector to even more predatory competition and offshoring pressures.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (May) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>May’s preliminary jobs report shows that manufacturing employment rose by 7,000 during the month – the sector’s best such performance since January. Revisions were positive for March (from no change to a 6,000 improvement) but April’s reported 1,000 gain (which is also still preliminary) remained unchanged.

>Viewed from a longer-term perspective, however, the new data confirmed manufacturing’s status as a major jobs laggard during the economic recovery.

>The sector’s 181,000 May-to-May jobs increase was its lowest annual gain since last June’s 172,000.

>Moreover, the 53,000 net new jobs manufacturing has created since November is the worst such cumulative performance since May to November, 2013, when it added 65,000 jobs.

>Partly as a result, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment (the Labor Department’s American jobs universe) sank to a new all-time low – 8.71 percent. At the sector’s absolute employment bottom during the recovery, in February and March, 2010, this figure stood at 10.69 percent and 10.67 percent, respectively.

>May’s figures left manufacturing with its lowest year-on-year employment increase (181,000) since last June’s 172,000.

>At the same time, May’s year-on-year manufacturing job increase was still much better than 2013-14’s 144,000, and 2012-13’s 77,000.

>Since manufacturing hit that last 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 882,000 (38.46 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has since increased net employment by 12.565 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 3.25 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.26 percent lower.

>May’s wage data continued to show significant manufacturing under-performance. Last month’s 0.12 percent sequential increase in nominal terms was the lowest since December’s 0.36 percent drop-off. Further, it lagged the 0.32 percent monthly wage increase achieved in the private sector overall.

>Manufacturing’s 1.78 percent May year-on-year nominal wage increase marginally bettered 2013-14’s performance (1.77 percent), but not 2012-13’s 1.97 percent. The May year manufacturing wage rise also trailed its overall private sector counterpart, which rose by 2.30 percent.

>Since the current economic recovery began, pre-inflation manufacturing wages are up less (9.30 percent) than private sector wages (12.64 percent).

>Manufacturing’s wage performance also has been sorry after adjusting for inflation. In real terms, manufacturing wages flat-lined from January through March, and rose by only a penny in April (the latest available figures). During this stretch, real private sector wages overall have actually fallen by a penny.

>Year-on-year, however, inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages rose in April by only 1.91 percent, versus 2.33 percent in the private sector in toto.

>Moreover, as of these preliminary April data, inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages are down by 0.65 percent since the recovery officially began in mid-2009. Real wages for the entire private sector are up 2.13 percent during this period.