(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Employment Starts the New Year Sluggishly

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automotive, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, private sector, recession, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

January saw U.S. manufacturing employment rise by 15,000 sequentially, but this monthly gain was the smallest since September’s 6,000 and combined with negative revisions, indicated that the sector’s healthy recent jobs growth might be cooling.

More encouragingly, manufacturing wages before adjusting for inflation rose sequentially for the second straight month (by 0.11 percent), and revisions on this front were positive. Yet industry remained a wage laggard, as overall private sector pay improved by 0.34 percent on month, and topped manufacturing’s annual wage increase by 2.89 percent to 1.90 percent. That manufacturing figure, moreover, represented a deceleration from the 2.73 percent increase between the previous Januarys. Between January, 2016 and 2017, the private sector’s wages increase of 2.40 percent actually trailed the manufacturing wages hike.

Despite the relatively weak employment start to 2018, manufacturing payrolls continued rising slightly faster than those of the economy overall, as its share of total non-farm employment (8.49 percent) was higher than last January’s level (8.47 percent). Automotive employment remained a trouble spot within manufacturing; combined motor vehicles and parts payrolls dipped (by 300) for the first time since October. Worse, the sector remained in a jobs recession, as employment is down on net by 4,600 since July, 2016.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (January) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>Signs of a manufacturing employment slowdown appeared in January’s non-farm payrolls report, as the monthly jobs gain of 15,000 was the lowest such figure since September’s 6,000.

>In addition, December’s 25,000 on-month employment increase was revised down to 21,000, November’s 31,000 improvement is now judged to be 30.000, and October’s 23,000 rise was revised down to 20,.000.

>Pre-inflation manufacturing wages did rise sequentially in January for the second straight month, but industry’s status as a paycheck laggard continued, and the gap between its wage increases and those of the private sector overall widened further.

>The January monthly wage increase of 0.11 percent trailed the private sector’s 0.34 percent.

>December’s 0.11 percent sequential wage rise was revised up to 0.30 percent and November’s 0.15 percent decrease is now judged to be a flat-line.

>But the initially reported December private sector wage advance of 0.34 percent was revised up, too – to 0.41 percent.

>Viewed on a year-on-year basis, manufacturing’s 1.90 percent current dollar wage improvement badly trailed the 2.89 percent increase recorded by the private sector – its best such figure since May, 2009’s 2.93 percent.

>Between the previous Januarys, manufacturing wages rose faster than the private sector’s as a whole – 2.73 percent to 2.40 percent.

>As a result, since the start of the current economic recovery, in mid-2009, pre-inflation private sector wages are up 25.56 percent more than manufacturing wages. A year ago, the gap was only 20.93 percent.

>Although manufacturing employment may be slowing, it’s still increased at a slightly faster rate than total non-farm employment (the U.S. government’s jobs universe) over the last year. In January, 2017, manufacturing jobs represented 8.47 percent of total American jobs. This January, the figure is up to 8.49 percent.

>The January jobs report, however, revealed continuing problems in automotive employment. This sector led industry’s strong growth and employment rebound from the deep recession that ended in mid-2009. But in January, its payrolls shrank sequentially (for the first time since October) by 300, keeping the combined motor vehicle and parts industries in a technical jobs recession.

>Since April, 2016, automotive employment is down on net by 4,600.

>On an annual basis, total manufacturing employment still showed some momentum.

>The January year-on-year payrolls increase of 186,000 was the best such figure since May, 2015’s 189,000. Between the previous Januarys, manufacturing lost 15,000 jobs.

>And since its employment bottom, in February and March of 2010, manufacturing has regained 48.06 percent (1.102 million) of the 2.293 million jobs it had lost since the December, 2007 start of the recession.

>But the overall private sector’s longer-term jobs performance continues to be much better. Since its February, 2010 jobs bottom, employers in this sector have boosted their payrolls by a net 18.232 million – more than twice the 8.780 million net positions lost during the recession and its aftermath.

>And whereas manufacturing employment remains 8.66 percent (or 1.191 million jobs) lower than when that recession began at the end of 2007, private sector employment is up by 8.14 percent (9.447 million jobs).

>On the wage front, moreover, manufacturing’s performance in price-adjusted terms is even worse than in pre-inflation terms.

>The latest figures are for December, and despite rising sequentially by 0.19 percent, real manufacturing wages remained in a long recession.

>Since March, 2016, they are down on net by 0.09 percent.

>Year-on-year, the 0.28 percent December decline in real manufacturing wages contrasts sharply with their 0.93 percent increase between December, 2015 and December, 2016.

>December’s monthly improvement in constant dollar private sector wages (0.28 percent) also exceeded manufacturing’s (0.19 percent).

>As a result, during the current recovery (which is now more than eight years old) real private sector wages are up by 4.27 percent – a meager improvement, but more than five times faster than the 0.84 percent advance in inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Key Sign of Better U.S. Job Quality

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Employment, healthcare services, Jobs, non-farm payrolls, private sector, public sector, real private sector, recession, recovery, subsidized private sector, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The U.S. government’s latest jobs report makes clear that the economy is well past the impact of the latest hurricane season, so it’s a great time to see if a new development in the makeup of American employment and hiring that began to appear this year. And last Friday’s non-farm payrolls figures (for November) confirm that it’s still in place: What I call the subsidized private sector is losing some noteworthy steam as a prime engine of the economy’s job creation during the current economic recovery, while the remaining “real private sector” is gaining momentum.

Not that the subsidized private sector – which consists of industries like healthcare, whose levels of output and therefore employment depend heavily on government subsidies – is a spent job-creation force. In fact, its share of total U.S. jobs on a standstill basis remains much higher than either at the start of the ongoing recovery and than at the onset of the last recession. But the growth curve has taken a significant bend down over the past year. And that’s good news if you believe – as you should – that the most sustainable type of job creation is that spawned by the part of the economy that’s shaped overwhelmingly by market forces.

First let’s look at the numbers over the last few years. For the first eleven months of 2017 (the new November figures are of course preliminary), the subsidized private sector accounted for 21.97 percent of all the economy’s net new hiring. That’s still considerably more than its share of employment last month (15.82 percent). But it’s significantly lower than the eleven-month share from last year – 24.12 percent.

In fact, this 2016-2017 decrease is the first such annual decline in several years. From 2013 to 2015, the number grew from 12.28 percent to 15.82 percent to 23.93 percent.

The converse has also been true: The real private sector’s share of total net new job creation has rebounded this year after falling since 2013: Here are those January-November numbers:

2013: 89.58 percent

2014: 80.09 percent

2015: 70.81 percent

2016: 66.47 percent

2017: 75.84 percent

Nonetheless, the subsidized private sector has built up such powerful employment momentum that its share of total non-farm payrolls (NFP) and of real private sector (RPS) jobs keeps growing. Here’s where it’s stood on some key recent dates.

December, 2007 (recession onset): 13.22 percent of NFP, 18.72 percent of RPS

June, 2009 (recovery start): 14.97 percent of NFP, 22.08 percent of RPS

November, 2017 (latest): 15.82 percent of NFP, 22.92 percent of RPS

Yet the momentum has waned a bit more recently, as the data from the last few Novembers shows:

November, 2014: 15.44 percent of NFP, 22.40 percent of RPS

November, 2015: 15.59 percent of NFP, 22.60 percent of RPS

November, 2016: 15.72 percent of NFP, 22.80 percent of RPS

November, 2017: 15.82 percent of NFP, 22.92 percent of RPS

In other words, between November, 2014 and November, 2015, the subsidized private sector’s share of NFP increased by 0.97 percent and of RPS by 0.89 percent.

Between the following Novembers, these growth rates had slowed to 0.83 percent and 0.88 percent, respectively. But they slowed much more significantly over the subsequent year (through last month) – to 0.64 percent and 0.53 percent, respectively.

This slowdown, moreover, could speed up if major changes are made in the nation’s healthcare system, as still seems distinctly possible. In turn, these developments look like a big economic wild card going forward. For now, though, better quality job creation has joined slightly better quality economic growth as two hallmarks of President Trump’s first year in office. Whether he’s had anything to do with them or not, they’re pieces of good economic news that shouldn’t be overlooked.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Remained a Jobs Winner and a Wages Loser in November

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

U.S. manufacturing in November continued its recent pattern of good employment gains but weak wage performance. November payrolls bested October’s by 31,000, and the year-on-year jobs gain of 189,000 was the best since April, 2015’s 194,000. September and October revisions boosted manufacturing employment by a net of 2,000. Manufacturing’s share of overall employment, moreover, grew to 8.50 percent. As recently as July, it had once again hit an all-time low of 8.47 percent. Yet in the automotive sector, which led domestic manufacturing’s bounce-back from a deep recessionary plunge, a jobs recession hit its first anniversary, with employment down 400 on net since last November.

On the wage front, manufacturing remained a laggard, as pre-inflation hourly pay in November fell sequentially by 0.15 percent versus a private sector gain of 0.19 percent. Manufacturing’s performance year-on-year was no better, as its current dollar wage gain of 1.87 percent trailed the private sector figure of 2.47 percent. As a result, the gap between pre-inflation private wage advances and manufacturing wage advances during the current recovery widened year-on-year from 22.52 percent to 24.27 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (November) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>November was far from the cruelest month for U.S. domestic manufacturing employment, which rose sequentially by a healthy 31,000, and improved year-on-year by 189,000 – the best annual gain since April, 2015’s 194,000.

>From November, 2015 to November, 2016, manufacturing lost 21,000 jobs on net.

>Moreover, September’s manufacturing employment advance was revised up again, from 6,000 to 9,000 – offsetting by 2,000 the downgrade for the October increase from 24,000 to 23,000.

>These improvements brought manufacturing’s share of non-farm employment (the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ U.S. jobs universe) up from 8.49 percent to 8.50 percent.

>One conspicuous exception in November to the brightening manufacturing jobs picture was the automotive sector – whose powerful bounce-back led domestic industry’s rapid initial recovery from its deep recessionary downturn.

>Despite a 1,700 monthly rise in net new jobs, weak revisions left automotive’s payrolls 400 fewer than last November, a one-year stretch that technically qualifies as a recession (more than two quarters of cumulative negative growth).

>Manufacturing wages continued to disappoint in November, though. The 0.15 sequential decline in hourly pay before inflation contrasted with the 0.19 percent rise in the private sector overall.

>Year-on-year, pre-inflation manufacturing wages advanced by 1.87 percent – not only slower than the private sector’s 2.47 percent performance, but well behind industry’s 2.86 percent rise between the previous Novembers.

>The November wage results mean that, since the current economic recovery began in mid-2009, private sector wages before inflation have risen 24.27 percent faster than manufacturing wages. Last November, the gap was 22.52 percent.

>The solid November gains pushed the number of net new manufacturing jobs created since the sector’s February and March, 2010 lows to 1.061 million. This total represents 46.27 percent of the 2.293 million net job nosedive manufacturing suffered from the late-2007 start of the recession through that aforementioned employment bottom.

>At the same time, manufacturing remains a significant employment laggard, too. Since its February, 2010 jobs bottom, the private sector overall has boosted its payrolls by a net 17.643 million. That’s more than twice the 8.78 million net positions lost during the recession and its aftermath.

>Further, manufacturing employment is still 8.96 percent (or 1.232 million jobs) lower than when that recession began at the end of 2007.

>During the same period, private sector employment has grown by 7.64 percent (or 8.863 million jobs).

>The latest inflation-adjusted wage data for manufacturing and overall private sector wages go through October, and also reveal special, chronic problems with manufacturing pay.

>Real manufacturing wages increased by 0.09 percent on month in October – a slight upgrade from the originally reported flat-line. The latest year-on-year figure remained at a 0.46 percent decline and the latest October, 2015-October, 2016 figure remained at a 1.87 percent gain.

>For the private sector as a whole, the October monthly real wage performance has been downgraded, from a 0.09 percent dip to a 0.29 percent decrease. The year-on-year results have worsened, too – wages are now judged to have risen only by 0.19 percent, rather than 0.73 percent, and the improvement between the previous Octobers has been downgraded from 1.13 percent to 0.75 percent.

>Yet these data are still better on the whole than those for manufacturing.

>In addition, during the current recovery – which is now more than eight years old – real private sector wages are up by 4.17 percent. Their manufacturing counterparts have risen by only 1.21 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Hurricanes Muddy September Manufacturing Jobs Results – & Obscure Huge Automotive Revisions

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, chemicals, hurricanes, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, petroleum refining, private sector, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

This year’s violent hurricane season contributed in September to American domestic manufacturing’s second sequential jobs in the last three months. Industries with extensive facilities on or near the Gulf coast and in the southeast took especially hard on-month hits, notably chemicals (-2,000), apparel (-1,900), and motor vehicles and parts (-3,200). Yet the heaviest single sector job decline came in printing and related activities (3,600).

September employment levels throughout manufacturing, however, also were greatly affected by enormous July automotive revisions, which prolonged a jobs recession in the sector that began in April, 2016. Initially credited with a 1,600 net job rise in July, automotive’s employment improvement was revised up to 5,300, and then dragged all the way down to a net job loss of 27,100. The overall July manufacturing job totals were downgraded from an initial 16,000 net increase to the 11,000 net loss revealed this morning.

Pre-inflation manufacturing wages in September matched the solid 0.45 percent sequential advance recorded for the private sector as a whole. But in manufacturing, this increase followed a 0.49 percent monthly wage drop in August – industry’s biggest since last November (which rounded down to 0.49 percent). Further, manufacturing’s annual current-dollar wage increase of 1.99 percent represents a striking slowdown from the previous year (2.95 percent). Manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment actually ticked up, though, in September and August – to just under 8.49 percent. In July, it matched its all-time low of 8.47 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (September) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>U.S. domestic manufacturing lost jobs on net sequentially in September for the second time in three months, with much of the total 1,000 decline traceable to payroll drops in sectors with many facilities in or near the hurricane-affected Gulf coast and southeastern states.

>For example, significant monthly job hits were taken in the automotive sector (3,200), chemicals (2,000), and apparel (1,900).

>At the same time, the sector with the greatest on-month job losses in September was printing and related support activities (3,600). And the petroleum and coal products industry, another Gulf coast-heavy sector, only lost 100 net jobs from August to September.

>In addition, employment levels throughout manufacturing in September were strongly affected by immense revisions for monthly automotive job changes in July.

>The initial read on vehicle and parts payrolls that month reported a 1,600 monthly jobs gain. The next employment report revised this advance up to 5,300. But this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics data tables showed a 27,100 month-to-month net automotive job loss for July.

>As a result, overall monthly manufacturing payroll shifts for July changed dramatically, too – from an initially reported 16,000 improvement to a 26,000 surge to an 11,000 net decrease.

>In fact, these automotive revisions revealed the sector to be mired in a jobs recession that began in April, 2016. Since then, payrolls in the sector have fallen by a cumulative 4,300.

>Manufacturing wages rose a seemingly impressive 0.45 percent sequentially in September on a pre-inflation basis, matching the gain of the overall private sector.

>Yet in manufacturing, this progress was preceded by a 0.49 percent monthly current dollar manufacturing wage drop in August, the biggest such decline since a comparable figure in November. In the private sector, pre-inflation wages rose sequentially in August by 0.15 percent.

>Worse, the September plummet meant that pre-inflation manufacturing wages had risen only 1.99 percent year-on-year – one of the lowest figures of 2017. And this wage gain was much bigger than the 2.95 percent current dollar raise manufacturing workers received between the previous Septembers.

>Moreover, the recovery-era gap between pre-inflation wage increases in manufacturing and in the private sector overall has widened considerably over the last year. In September, 2016, private sector wages had risen 21.55 percent faster than manufacturing pay since the recovery began in June, 2009. This September, the difference was 25.28 percent.

>In absolute terms, during the recovery, current-dollar manufacturing wages are up 15.90 percent in toto and overall private sector wages are up 19.92 percent.

>The latest inflation-adjusted wage data for manufacturing and overall private sector wages go through August, and further darken the pay picture in industry.

>That month, real manufacturing wages plunged by 0.91 percent sequentially – their worst such performance since November, 2011 (0.95 percent). Inflation-adjusted hourly pay for the overall private sector worsened, too – but by just 0.19 percent.

>And since the recovery began more than eight years ago, whereas overall private sector wages have risen by 4.66 percent on a price-adjusted basis, pay has improved by a mere 1.12 percent for manufacturing workers.

>Employment figures tell a similar story. Since hitting its last low point, in February and March of 2010, manufacturing has regained 994,000 (43.35 percent) of the 2.293 million net jobs it had shed since the last recession officially began, in December, 2007.

>Manufacturing employment is still down since that recessionary onset nearly ten years ago, too – by 1.299 million, or 9.45 percent.

>Since its latest employment nadir, in February, 2010, the overall private sector has boosted employment by 17.065 million. That’s nearly twice as many jobs as it lost (8.780 million) during the recession.

>Since the recession began, overall private sector is up by 8.285 million – a 7.14 percent gain over those nearly ten years.

>Somewhat more encouragingly, manufacturing jobs as a share of total non-farm jobs (the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ American jobs universe), rose slightly in September and August (to just under 8.49 percent) from the record low it had matched in July (8.47 percent).

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing’s Out of its (Short Term) Jobs and Wages Doldrums

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

American domestic manufacturing created 16,000 net new jobs in July on month, its best such performance since February’s 22,000. Coupled with a major (11,000) upward revision for June, the figures demonstrated that U.S. industry has for now emerged from a springtime slump. On an annual basis, manufacturing’s July 66,000 employment improvement was its strongest since February, 2016’s 69,000.

But since the current recovery began, private net job creation has topped manufacturing’s by a factor of nearly 2.5. The same story characterized pre-inflation manufacturing wages. In July, they improved sequentially faster than the private sector’s (0.53 percent to 0.34 percent) but lagged year-on-year (2.42 percent to 2.53 percent) and trailed the previous Julys’ 3.13 percent. And during the current recovery, the private sector’s current dollar wages have increased nearly 20 percent faster than manufacturing’s, although the gap has narrowed year-on-year. But despite its good last two months, manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment remained at a record low of 8.47 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (July) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>U.S. domestic manufacturing net new job creation and wage gains both accelerated sequentially in July, pulling the sector out of a sluggish spring on both fronts.

>Industry’s monthly July jobs gain of 16,000 was its best such performance by far since the 22,000 payrolls improvement in February. Moreover, June’s initially reported 1,000 employment increase is is now judged to have been more than ten times greater (12,000).

>Fiurther, the July figures showed that manufacturing payrolls swelled by 66,000 year-on-year in July – the best annual gains since February, 2016’s 69,000.

>Monthly pre-inflation manufacturing wages growth picked up notably as well in July, from an upwardly revised 0.19 percent in June to 0.53 percent. In May, manufacturing paychecks actually fell on a current dollar basis – by an upwardly revised 0.26 percent.

>Manufacturing’s June sequential pre-inflation wage gains equaled those of the overall private sector, and beat the private sector’s 0.34 percent performance in July.

>Over the longer term, however, manufacturing lagged the overall private sector in both respects, although the paycheck gap has been narrowing slightly recently.

>During the current economic recovery, which began in mid-2009, manufacturing employment is now up by 5.96 percent. Private sector jobs as a whole are up by 14.58 percent during this period.

>Since the late-2007 onset of the last recession, manufacturing’s performance is equally poor. From that time to the early 2010 troughs, manufacturing lost 2.293 million jobs and private sector payrolls shrank by 8.801 million.

>Since then, manufacturing has regained just 42.39 percent of those lost jobs (a total of 972,000). The private sector as a whole has boosted employment by 17 million.

>As a result, total private sector employment is now 7.08 percent higher than at the recession’s late-2007 onset, but manufacturing employment is still 9.61 percent lower.

>Therefore, it’s no surprise that manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment in July stayed stuck at its all-time low level of 8.47 percent.

>Wage trends reveal the same manufacturing relative weakness. Industry’s July annual current dollar wage gains of 2.42 percent were lower than the overall private sector’s 2.53 percent. They were also much lower than the 3.13 percent increase recorded for manufacturing during the previous Julys.

>Manufacturing wages before inflation have fared little better during the recovery. As of July, they were up by 15.99 percent since the economy resumed expanding in mid-2009. But overall private sector wage increased by 19.06 percent – 19.20 percent faster.

>Last July, though, the gap was bigger – 23.24 percent.

>Manufacturing generally performs even worse on an inflation-adjusted basis. The latest figures are for June, and show a sequential manufacturing gain of 0.18 percent versus a 0.28 percent read for the private sector overall.

>Year-on-year, real manufacturing wages have risen by only 0.55 percent. That’s both slower than the private sector’s 0.94 percent and manufacturing’s own 2.46 percent constant dollar rise between July, 2015 and July, 2016.

>During the entire recovery, overall private sector real wages are up 4.56 percent as of June – 2.87 times faster than the manufacturing real wage improvement (1.59 percent).

>As bad as that comparison looks, it’s actually narrower than the gap last year – when overall private sector wages had increased 3.48 times faster after inflation than manufacturing wages.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Job Creation is Stagnating Again

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, real wages, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

American domestic manufacturing created 1,000 net new jobs in June, but the figures underscored that the sector’s employment gains have nearly petered out recently. Including modest (3,000) downward revisions, industry’s employment has grown by only 8,000 since March. Largely as a result, manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm jobs hit a new record low – just under 8.47 percent.

Pre-inflation manufacturing wages ticked up sequentially in June (by 0.08 percent) and the pace of annual increases rose from May’s 1.92 percent to 2.08 percent. But these advances remained the lowest since October, 2015 (2.17 percent), and industry pay continued lagging that of the overall private sector, although the gap between their rates of increase narrowed over the past year – from 22.72 percent to 22.43 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (June) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>U.S. domestic manufacturing grew by 1,000 on net in June, but this modest number not only contrasted with the solid employment performance registered by the economy as a whole. It also revealed that industry’s net job creation has nearly ground to a halt.

>Including total negative revisions for April and May of 3,000, domestic manufacturers have increased payrolls by only 8,000 since March.

>Largely as a result, manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment sank in June to just under 8.47 percent – a new all-time low.

>After falling on month at an upwardly revised 0.34 percent in May, nominal manufacturing wages edged up sequentially in June by 0.08 percent. Yet evidence persisted of a wage lag suffered by manufacturing workers.

>The current dollar monthly wage gain for private sector workers overall was 0.15 percent – nearly twice as great as that for their manufacturing counterparts.

>The same situation held for annual wage trends. Year-on-year, manufacturing pre-inflation wages rose only 2.08 percent in June. The private sector improvement was 2.46 percent.

>Moreover, the June yearly manufacturing wage advance, along with May’s upwardly revised 1.92 percent rise, were the lowest since October, 2015’s 2.17 percent.

>Between the previous Junes, pre-inflation manufacturing wages increased by 3.47 percent.

>On a pre-inflation basis, manufacturing’s wage increases during the current economic recovery still trail those of the private sector, although the gap has narrowed slightly over the last year.

>As of June, 2016, private sector pre-inflation wages were up by 15.72 percent during the expansion (which began in mid-2009) and manufacturing wages were up 12.81 percent. Therefore, private sector wages had risen by 22.72 percent faster than manufacturing wages.

>As of this June, private sector pre-inflation wages were up by 18.56 percent during the recovery, while manufacturing pay was up by 15.16 percent. Therefore, the gap between the rates of increase had shrunk to 22.43 percent.

>Factoring in inflation darkens manufacturing’s wage picture. The latest data are from May, but they show that that month, real manufacturing wages fell sequentially by 0.28 percent while they rose by that amount for the entire private sector.

>Year-on-year in May, the 0.56 percent increase in inflation-adjusted private sector wages was unimpressive. But it beat manufacturing’s performance – which flat-lined. Between May, 2015 and May, 2016, after-inflation manufacturing wages increased by 2.45 percent.

>During the entire recovery, overall private sector real wages are up 4.27 percent. For manufacturing? Less than half that improvement: 1.49 percent.

>Manufacturing’s June year-on-year jobs increase of 49,000 greatly exceeded the previous Junes’ annual increase of 9,000, underscoring the sector’s recent exit from an employment recession.

>Nonetheless, over the longer term, manufacturing has continued to lag the private sector overall on the payroll front.

>During the current economic recovery, which began in mid-2009, manufacturing employment has grown by only 5.71 percent. For the private sector as a whole during the expansion, it’s up by 14.39 percent.

>Since the late-2007 onset of the last recession, manufacturing’s performance is equally poor. From that time to the early 2010 troughs, manufacturing lost 2.293 million jobs and private sector payrolls shrank by 8.801 million.

>Since then, manufacturing has regained just 41.12 percent of those lost jobs (a total of 943,000). The private sector as a whole has boosted employment by 16.794 million.

>As a result, total private sector employment is now 6.91 percent higher than at the recession’s late-2007 onset, but manufacturing employment is still 9.82 percent lower.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Exits Jobs Recession; Payrolls Resilient but Wages Dreary

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inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Although U.S. monthly manufacturing jobs growth slowed in March to 11,000 from a solid February figure that was revised slightly downward (to 26,000), net positive revisions helped pull industry out of its latest employment recession. Manufacturing payrolls have now increased on net (by 5,000) since January, 2016. March’s year-on-year manufacturing jobs improvement (37,000) was also the best such figure since last February’s 69,000. Manufacturing’s March monthly employment slowdown mirrored that of the rest of the economy, but its revisions were much better. As a result, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment inched up from its latest all-time low in February (8.49 percent) to 8.50 percent.

Less impressive was manufacturing’s March sequential wage growth (0.04 percent), which trailed the overall private sector improvement (0.19 percent) for the third straight month. These results also pushed manufacturing’s yearly current dollar wage growth (2.53 percent) below that of the private sector (2.67 percent) for the first time since last February (2.32 percent vs 2.38 percent). Consequently, the wage-increase gap between the overall private sector and the manufacturing sector during the recovery widened from 1.23:1 to 1.24:1. Manufacturing’s recovery-era job laggard status remained intact, too, in March, as its payrolls have increased by only 5.68 percent since mid-2009, versus the 13.92 percent rise for the overall private sector.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (March) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>The job growth slowdown that struck the entire U.S. economy in March undercut manufacturing’s performance, too. But the latest 11,000 sequential gain, coupled with February’s solid but downwardly revised 26,000 and positive revisions helped the sector emerge from its latest employment recession.

>American manufacturing payrolls are now 5,000 higher than in January, 2016.

>The new figures also pushed March’s year-on-year manufacturing jobs gains to 37,000 – the best such improvement since last February’s 69,000. Even better, the new March annual rise also beat that between the previous Marches (35,000).

>Although the February manufacturing jobs gain was revised down slightly from 28,000, January’s figure rise was upgraded from 11,000 to 12,000, and December’s increase is now judged to be 18,000, not 11,000.

>Manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment came in at a meager 8.50 percent in March. But that level at least beat February’s 8.49 percent – which represented an all-time low.

>Manufacturing wages performed less impressively in March than manufacturing employment. On a monthly basis, the second straight 0.04 rise in pre-inflation hourly pay in the sector trailed the overall private sector rise (0.19 percent) for the third straight month.

>More troubling, manufacturing’s March year-on-year pre-inflation wage growth (2.53 percent) trailed the overall private sector result (2.67 percent) for the first time since last February (when annual current dollar manufacturing wages increased by 2.32 percent and overall private sector wages advanced by 2.38 percent.

>The new manufacturing increase did beat March 2015-16’s 2.47 percent.

>Yet thanks to manufacturing’s recent relative wage weakness, it’s an even greater recovery-era laggard measured by its rate of wage increases than in February. As of that month, current dollar private sector wages had risen by 23 percent faster than hourly manufacturing pay since the expansion’s June, 2009 onset.

>In March, the gap had grown to 24 percent. Manufacturing wages had risen by 14.55 percent during that period, whereas private sector wages in toto were up 18.07 percent.

>Moreover, the latest available (February) data show that manufacturing’s wage lag is even worse – and also widening – in inflation-adjusted terms.

>February real manufacturing wages dipped month-on-month by 0.09 percent, while after-inflation private sector pay rose by 0.09 percent.

>Including these results, after-inflation manufacturing wages have risen by only 0.56 percent during the near-decade-long recovery. Real overall private sector wages have advanced by 3.49 percent. These results brought the private sector manufacturing-pr

>Adjusting for inflation, manufacturing’s wage performance looks much worse. The latest figures only cover January, but they show that real hourly pay in the sector is up only 0.65 percent since the recovery began in mid-2009 – more than seven years ago.

>As a result, the March real wage growth gap between the two 6.32:1 – considerably higher than February’s 5.22:1.

>The recovery-era story of manufacturing as a major job-creation laggard remained intact in March, too.

>Since America’s current expansion began, industry’s payrolls are up by a mere 5.68 percent. Employment in the private sector as a whole has risen by 13.92 percent during this period.

>The same trends can be seen since the last recession began, at the end of 2007. From that employment peak to the early 2010 troughs, manufacturing lost 2.293 million jobs and private sector payrolls shrank by 8.801 million.

>Since then, manufacturing has regained only 40.87 percent of those lost jobs (a total of 939,000). the private sector as a whole, by has boosted employment by 16.283 million.

>This means that total private sector employment is now 6.47 percent higher than at the recession’s late-2007 onset, but manufacturing employment is still 9.85 percent lower.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite Strength in February, Manufacturing’s Jobs Recession Continued

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BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

February’s preliminary U.S. manufacturing jobs figures showed that the sector boosted payrolls by 28,000 – its best performance since the same total for January, 2016, but that its jobs recession continued, with employment down on net since that month. Manufacturing wage growth, moreover, showed some weakness, as average hourly pay improved by just 0.04 percent on month (lagging the overall private sector) and the yearly improvement of 2.89 percent was mediocre by the last few months’ standards.

The positive manufacturing jobs revisions for December and January brightened former President Obama’s record for employment creation in the sector, but the increase still fell short of his stated second term goal of creating one million new positions in industry by 625,000.

Despite the good February monthly advance – plus the sector’s first annual employment increase (7,000) since last July – manufacturing jobs as a share of the non-farm total hit a new record low of 8.49 percent. Nor did the February results change manufacturing’s status as an American employment and wages laggard. Since the mid-2009 onset of the current economic recovery, industry employment is up only 5.59 percent, versus the 11.28 percent for the nation as a whole, and pre-inflation wages have risen by 14.51 percent versus the 17.84 percent rise for the entire private sector.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (February) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>The first full (though preliminary) monthly tally of President Trump’s manufacturing job creation record showed that even a strong February – which saw industry’s payrolls grow by 28,000 on net – wasn’t enough to pull the sector out of its latest jobs recession.

>Although the February results were manufacturing’s best since January, 2016’s (which were identical), the sector’s employment is still below that month’s total by 5,000 on net.

>In addition, manufacturing wages displayed signs of weakness in February. Their pre-inflation sequential increase of 0.04 percent trailed that of the overall private sector (0.23 percent) for the second straight month.

>Year-on-year, however, manufacturing’s wage performance looks better. Hourly pay rose by 2.89 percent versus the 2.80 percent figure for the private sector. Manufacturing held the edge in January, too, but the gap was wider (2.89 percent versus 2.60 percent).

>The new Labor Department release also showed that former President Obama’s record as a manufacturing jobs creator was somewhat better than previously reported. Net new manufacturing jobs still rose much less (a total of 375,000) than the one million goal he set for his second term. But positive revisions for January and February boosted manufacturing positions by 13,000 during those years.

>The last three months’ totals also did nothing to halt the historic slide in manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment. In February, this figure hit a new record low of 8.49 percent.

>On the brighter side, the February yearly manufacturing jobs increase of 7,000 was the first such advance since the 7,000 annual growth last July.  Nonetheless, it compared poorly with the 69,000 year-on-year gain reported for the previous Februarys.  

>Even so, manufacturing remains a jobs and wages laggard during the current economic recovery. Since the economy returned to expansion mode in June, 2009, industry employment is up by only 5.59 percent – less than half the 11.28 percent advance recorded by the private sector as a whole.

>Since its 2010 employment bottom, manufacturing has now regained 929,000 (40.51 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 16.217 million.

>Moreover, whereas total private sector employment is now 6.41 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, in late 2007, manufacturing employment is still 9.92 percent lower.

>On the wage front, pre-inflation manufacturing pay has risen by 14.51 percent during this recovery – again slower than the 17.84 percent for the entire private sector.

>Adjusting for inflation, manufacturing’s wage performance looks much worse. The latest figures only cover January, but they show that real hourly pay in the sector is up only 0.65 percent since the recovery began in mid-2009 – more than seven years ago. Real wages in the private sector overall are up 3.39 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite Strong December, Manufacturing Jobs Recession Continues & Sector Suffers Worst Year Since 2009

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inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

In December, American domestic manufacturing employment enjoyed its best monthly increase (17,000) since January (18,000). But these gains were not enough to pull the sector out of its latest jobs recession, as employment is down on net by 24,000 since December, 2014. Just as disturbing, the sector in 2016 suffered its first full calendar-year of job loss (45,000) since recession-plagued 2009 (1.375 million).

Manufacturing’s pre-inflation wage gains rebounded in December (by 0.50 percent) from November’s 0.45 percent monthly decline, and also outpaced the private sector year-on-year – by 3.37 percent to 2.93 percent. But in both current-dollar and price-adjusted terms, industry remains a laggard during the current economic recovery. Manufacturing employment as a share of total non-farm employment also remained at its latest all-time low – just under 8.45 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (December) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>American domestic manufacturing gained 17,000 jobs on a monthly basis in December – its best such performance since January’s 18,000 improvement. But the gains weren’t big enough to end the sector’s two-year long jobs recession.

>Since December, 2014, U.S. manufacturing employment is down on net by 24,000 – its longest slump since the Great Recession.

>Moreover, the December data (which are still preliminary) show that in 2016, American manufacturing lost 45,000 jobs on net. That’s its first full calendar-year of net employment decline since 2009 — when the sector’s payrolls cratered by 1.375 million even as the recession was coming to an end.

> In 2015, manufacturing gained 26,000 jobs. 

>Better news came on the wage front. Pre-inflation hourly pay in manufacturing rose by 0.50 percent on month – better than the 0.39 percent improvement for the private sector as a whole.

>Manufacturing wage increases also topped those in the private sector on an annual basis – by a 3.37 percent to 2.93 percent margin.

>In real terms, however, the story for manufacturing is much more mixed.

>The latest Labor Department figures are from November, and show that manufacturing’s month-on-month performance (real wages fell by 0.64 percent) was much worse than the private sector’s (down 0.28 percent).

>Year-on-year, however, manufacturing’s real wage increase in November (1.12 percent) beat the overall private sector’s (0.85 percent).

>Nevertheless, since the recovery began in mid-2009 – more than seven years ago – inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages have risen only 1.03 percent. Real private sector wages have increased considerably faster – by 3.69 percent.

>In pre-inflation terms, moreover, manufacturing wage gains also trail those of the private sector during the recovery – 14.55 percent to 17.43 percent.

>The net new jobs created in December still left manufacturing’s share of non-farm American jobs (the Labor Department’s definition of the U.S. employment universe) at just under 8.45 percent. That’s virtually the same proportion as in November, and another record low.

>The latest revisions to the manufacturing jobs figures netted out to zero. November’ originally reported 4,000 job loss was revised to a (still preliminary) 7,000 decrease. But October’s 5,000 decrease is now judged to have been just 4,000 in the final (for now) tally, and September’s 8,000 employment decline was upgraded to 6,000.

>Since its 2010 employment bottom, manufacturing has regained 822,000 (35.85 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 15.823 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 6.07 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.70 percent lower.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Wages Now Surging Amid Lengthening Manufacturing Jobs Recession

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, Labor Department, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

American domestic manufacturing extended its jobs recession in April, with the 4,000 sequential net increase not nearly big enough to prevent a net employment decline that now stretches back to January, 2015. April’s performance represented the sector’s first monthly improvement since January.

Yet even though industry has lost 14,000 net jobs over the last 15 months, the sector’s wages jumped by 0.70 percent in April over March’s upwardly revised level and by 3.02 percent year on year. The former increase was the biggest since recessionary November, 2008 and the latter the biggest since October, 2009 – when employment was still falling. At the same time, manufacturing jobs as a share of total non-farm jobs hit a new all-time low in April (8.54 percent), and revisions of prior months’ poor sequential job creation figures were only 2,000 to the upside.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (April) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>American domestic manufacturing increased its employment levels by 4,000 on net in April – its first monthly increase in two months. But the figures still mean that the sector’s jobs recession extended into its fifteenth month – its longest since the Great Recession – with employment down on net since January, 2015 (by 14,000 jobs).

>Yet the April figures also show the biggest monthly and yearly manufacturing wage increases since the Great Recession and its immediate aftermath.

>On month, April current-dollar manufacturing wages rose by 0.70 percent – the strongest such performance since November, 2008 (0.71 percent), when the economy was still slumping.

>The year-on-year April manufacturing wage increase of 3.02 percent was the biggest annual wage rise since October 2009 (3.03 percent) – when the economy was only four months into its current recovery, and when manufacturing employment was still falling on net.

>During those recessionary and early recovery days, anecdotal evidence suggested that manufacturing companies were reducing payrolls by laying off their least experienced, and lowest paid workers – thus resulting in statistical wage increases. Similar moves could explain the new disparity between employment and compensation trends.

>According to the April figures, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment (the Labor Department’s U.S. employment universe) hit its latest new record low – 8.54 percent. The previous new record – 8.55 percent – was set in March.

>This morning’s revisions to the March and February manufacturing job changes were positive, but minimal. March’s 29,000 monthly loss – the worst since the 34,000 decrease in December, 2009 – remained unchanged, but February’s previously reported 18,000 payroll reductions were revised upward to 16,000.

>April’s manufacturing job results also produced the second straight month of year-on-year employment contraction. Since April, 2015, the sector’s payrolls have shrunk by a net total of 19,000. March’s annual manufacturing job losses were revised from 28,000 to 25,000, but February’s previously reported 5,000 yearly job shrinkage was revised up to growth of 7,000.

>Between April, 2014 and April, 2015, manufacturing gained 177,000 jobs and the comparable March improvement was 193,000.

>Since manufacturing hit its 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 844,000 (36.81 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by a 14.581 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now five percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.54 percent lower.

>The manufacturing wage figures in the new jobs report also compared favorably with the data from the private sector overall. April’s 0.70 percent monthly rise in manufacturing wages more than doubled the 0.31 percent improvement for private sector as a whole.

>Manufacturing’s 3.02 percent year-on-year April wage rise also handily beat the private sector’s 2.49 percent – itself a strong gain.

>Manufacturing wages are also showing impressive momentum. The April annual manufacturing wage increase was much higher than March’s 2.47 percent, which itself was upwardly revised. That March rise, in turn, beat February’s 2.44 percent. January’s year-on-year wage performance was better, however – 2.52 percent.

>Longer term, manufacturing’s wage-laggard status remained intact, but the gap with the private sector has been narrowing. Since the current economic recovery began, in mid-2009, its pre-inflation wages are up less (12.51 percent) than overall private sector wages (15.31 percent).

>Examining manufacturing’s inflation-adjusted wages reveals similar trends. The latest Labor Department figures are from March and show that its monthly increase in manufacturing wages was stronger (0.28 percent) than that of the private sector overall (0.19 percent).

>Year-on-year, March real manufacturing wages were up 1.60 percent, versus 1.52 percent for the private sector.

>Yet since the recovery began in mid-2009 – nearly seven years ago – inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages have risen only 0.84 percent. Real private sector wages have increased four times faster – by 3.78 percent.