(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Why 2019 Was a Winner for Trump Trade Policies & America

Tags

Barack Obama, Boeing, China, GDP, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods trade deficit, tariffs, Trade, Trade Deficits, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

OK, let’s cut to the chase regarding the new U.S. trade deficit data. (We’ll analyze today’s report from the Census Bureau more comprehensively tomorrow.)

The most important result revealed by the figures – which bring the story up to December and therefore give us our first look at full-year 2019 development – isn’t that the overall U.S. trade deficit fell year-on-year last year (which alone indicates that President Trump is starting to keep one of his signature campaign promises). It isn’t that the huge annual China goods deficit cratered (by 17.62 percent, the biggest such drop on record – including Great Recession year 2009 – and indicating another promise being kept). It isn’t that the still-huge manufacturing deficit has virtually stabilized despite the safety woes of Boeing, long the generator of major trade surpluses. And it isn’t even that these trade gaps have narrowed even as the economy has continued growing acceptably (which most economists insist is practically impossible, especially for a consumer-heavy country like the United States).

Instead, the most important result is that this economic growth continued in 2019 even as that portion of the trade deficit most influenced by trade policy increased at a particularly slow rate. The obvious conclusions? Trade policy can influence the size and rate of change in the trade deficit, and that the Trump trade policies are working.

To remind, this portion of the trade deficit (which I call the Made in Washington trade deficit) sheds light on the above points because it’s the non-oil goods deficit. It’s highly trade policy sensitive because it strips out of the total trade balance numbers the services balance (because so little progress has been made in worldwide services trade liberalization) as well as the oil balance (because oil is rarely the subject of trade deals or other trade policy decisions).

The table below presents the numbers for the last three years of the Obama administration and the first three of the Trump administration – a comparison that’s apt because these time periods are right next to each other in the current (expansionary) business cycle.

Made in Washington trade deficit % change     GDP % change          ratio

2013-14:        +19.35                                                 +4.42                4.38:1

2014-15:        +21.23                                                 +3.98                5.33:1

2015-16:          +2.41                                                 +2.69                0.97:1

2016-17:          +8.05                                                 +4.30                1.87:1

2017-18:        +12.66                                                 +5.43                2.33:1

2018-19:          +1.75                                                +4.12                 0.42:1

As is obvious from the above, the Made in Washington deficit’s growth rates during the Obama years (measured in pre-inflation terms) have been considerably slower than those of the Trump years. And yet the GDP (gross domestic product) growth rates of the first three Trump years have been notably faster than those of the last three Obama years.

In other words, as made clearest by the right-hand column, which shows the ratio between the two, the link between economic growth and trade deficit growth has been weakening significantly during the Trump years. And the President’s tariff-heavy trade policies have plainly played a major role. All else equal, moreover, that means growth that’s more nationally self-sufficient (no small achievement in a still dangerous world), healthier, and therefore more sustainable.

President Trump makes way too many false or exaggerated boasts about the economy (among other subjects). But the 2019 trade data show that when it comes to trade policy, he’s entitled to considerable bragging rights.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Boeing’s Safety Woes are Hammering U.S. Manufacturing & Overall Trade Flows Under Trump

Tags

Airbus, Boeing, civilian aircraft, exports, imports, manufacturing, non-oil goods trade deficit, safety, services trade, tariffs, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, World Trade Organization, {What's Left of) Our Economy

When last month’s U.S. trade figures (for August) came out, I wrote about how the economic narratives about the woes of domestic manufacturing and America’s trade accounts during the Trump Tariffs Era have been turning into a story about the safety related troubles of Boeing. This morning, the September data were issued, and the Boeing drag on the trade performances of industry and the entire economy look bigger than ever. Especially interesting, the Boeing effect worsened during a data month when total U.S. trade, manufacturing trade, and civilian aircraft trade all took modest turns for the better.

Specifically, the overall U.S. trade deficit in September dropped by 4.70 percent, from an upwardly revised $55.04 billion to $52.45 billion. The total was the lowest since April’s $51.98 billion, and the sequential decrease the biggest since January’s 12.61 percent nosedive.

Partly as a result, the year-to-date trade deficit is up by 5.47 percent – a rate of increase less than half that of the previous year’s 12.68 percent.

Combined goods and services exports rose by 0.88 percent from $207.83 billion to $205.99 billion – their worst monthly performance since April’s $205.76 billion. Total imports, however, sank by nearly twice as much proportionately – 1.68 percent. And September’s $258.44 billion figure was also the lowest since April ($257.74 billion).

Services trade, however, provided an oddly glum counterpoint. It’s long been a trade surplus generator, and remained so in September. But the new monthly surplus of $19.27 billion was the lowest since December, 2012’s $18.55 billion. The main culprit? The fourth straight high for monthly services imports ($49.89 billion).

At the same time, the huge and chronic manufacturing trade deficit fell sequentially in September for the second straight month, from $92.08 billion by 4.53 percent, to $87.91 billion. That total was the best since June’s $83.63 billion. And this progress was mirrored in civilian aircraft. Their exports jumped month-to-month in September by 25 percent. Imports rose even faster – by 41.58 percent. But their amount is much smaller ($1.35 billion vs $3.29 billion). Therefore, the civilian aircraft trade surplus improved from $1.69 billion to $1.95 billion.

What, then, is the problem? It becomes glaringly visible upon examining trade in civilian aircraft during the entire stretch of Boeing’s current woes (which essentially began this past March with many national aviation authorities grounding the plane in their own countries’ airlines, and/or barring it from their national air spaces), and comparing it with the aircraft trade figures for the same periods of previous years, and with the performance of overall manufacturing exports and imports.

Last month, I described how civilian aircraft’s trade performance between this past April (the first full month in which the Boeing effect could be expected to begin showing up) and August had deteriorated markedly from the same period last year. Today’s trade data show that the deterioration has grown far worse.

As made clear in last month’s post, despite its reputation as a major American trade winner, the civilian aircraft sector has experienced ever poorer results since 2017, and the new trade figures confirm this trend.

Between April and September of 2017 and April and September of 2018, civilian aircraft exports fell by 10.32 percent, even though overall U.S. manufacturing exports increased by 6.84 percent. The industry’s record on the import side was better – they dropped during this time by 13.98 percent, while manufacturing imports in total climbed by 11.64 percent.

But the comparison between the following April-to-September periods looks considerably drearier for aircraft. Between April and September of last year and the same period this year, although manufacturing exports were down by 3.82 percent, civilian aircraft foreign sales sank by 26.80 percent. And although manufacturing imports edged up only 0.27 percent between these periods, American purchases of civilian aircraft surged by just over 26 percent.

Further, the impact of aircraft’s slump on manufacturing and overall U.S. trade has been substantial and growing. As of last month’s trade report, the fall in these products’ exports between the April-August 2018 and April-August 2019 periods accounted for 30.72 percent of the decrease in total manufacturing exports during that time, and 16.81 percent of the increase in total manufacturing imports.

As of today’s figures, the civilian aircraft share of manufacturing’s total export decline is up to 31.35 percent of the total, while their share of industry’s total import increase has shot up to more than half manufacturing’s total.

Expanding the focus to all U.S. goods trade except for energy products (which to date haven’t received significant attention in free trade negotiations or any other aspects of American trade diplomacy) also reveals a sizable Boeing effect. Between the April-September 2018 and 2019 periods, civilian aircraft’s export decline accounted for fully 42.39 percent of the total U.S. non-oil goods export decrease recorded then, and 20.61 percent of the non-oil goods import increase.

In addition, to repeat a crucial point, this major Boeing effect on manufacturing and overall trade has absolutely nothing to do with the Trump trade wars, since civilian aircraft so far have not been subjected to foreign tariffs on American exports imposed in retaliation for Mr. Trump’s levies. This situation will change due to recent and upcoming rulings in the long-running World Trade Organization case between Boeing and the European Union’s Airbus. But as of now, any evaluation of the Trump effect on U.S. trade flows ignoring the powerful drag created by Boeing’s troubles deserves a grade of “incomplete” – at best.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Trade Data Confirm that U.S. Growth Keeps Getting Healthier Under Trump

Tags

GDP, gross domestic product, Made in Washington trade deficit, non-oil goods trade deficit, real GDP, real growth, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

This morning’s monthly U.S. trade figures (for March) enable an update for the economic impact of President Trump’s tariff-centric trade policies – and contain very good news both for Mr. Trump and for anyone hoping that the nation’s growth becomes healthier (which should be all Americans).

The major test, as RealityChek regulars know, is a comparison between the economy’s overall growth on the one hand, and the growth of the trade shortfall most heavily influenced by trade policies. The latter can be termed the “Made in Washington trade deficit,” since it strips out oil (which is rarely the object of trade deals or trade policy decisions) and services (where trade liberalization has made only limited progress).

If the economy is growing faster than this non-oil goods deficit (in inflation-adjusted terms – the gauge most closely followed by economy watchers), or if its growth rate is still slower but the gap between these rates is narrowing, that means that its expansion is at least starting to stem more from domestic production, and less from import-led (and therefore debt-financed) consumption. If the trends are showing the opposite results, then overall growth is becoming still more heavily reliant on credit-financed shopping (whether by households, businesses, governments or some combination of these).

And in case you forgot, that’s the kind of growth that led directly to the last global financial crisis and the worst American recession since the Great Depression. And even though the economy began recovering a decade ago, its expansion consistently trailed the growth rate of the Made in Washington trade deficit – and never more than when the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product was increasing most robustly.

That’s why the new U.S. trade figures are so encouraging. They confirm that the American economy recently has been able to grow impressively without supercharged Made in Washington trade deficits. In fact, that’s way understating the case. For calculations based on the March trade results show that, during the first quarter of this year, the after-inflation Made in Washington trade deficit actually shrunk sequentially (by a 6.09 percent annual rate) while real gross domestic product increased by a healthy 3.13 percent annualized.

Nor was the first quarter a fluke – at least not under the Trump administration. In the second quarter of 2018, the real Made in Washington trade shortfall sank sequentially by 5.90 percent annualized, while the overall economy surged by a price-adjusted 4.10 percent.

And an examination of the two during the current economic recovery produces an unmistakable pattern, which is best illustrated by looking at the far-right column (think of it as the multiple) of the table below: During the Trump years so far, good growth has resulted despite relatively modest increases (and, as we’ve just seen, despite some absolute declines) in the Made in Washington trade deficit. During the Obama years, Trump-like growth was only achieved when the Made in Washington trade deficit practically exploded. And when that trade deficit grew weakly, so did the gross domestic product.

Further, even though the multiple rose between the first and second years of the Trump administration, the quarterly 2018 figures show that this problem stemmed from the tariff front-running of the third quarter – when U.S. importers were scrambling to bring in products from abroad before they were hit with levies, principally on goods from China. Once this period of distortion ended, the multiple fell significantly (and probably overshot in the first quarter of this year).

Real Made in Washington trade deficit        Real GDP         Ratio of first to second

1Q 2019:              -6.09 percent                   3.13 percent                 -1.95:1

4Q 2018:               6.41 percent                   2.15 percent                  2.98:1

3Q 2018:             11.66 percent                   3.31 percent                  3.52:1

2Q 2018:             -5.90 percent                    4.10 percent                -1.44:1

1Q 2018:              1.35 percent                    2.20 percent                 0.61:1

2018:                  12.74 percent                    2.86 percent                 4.45:1

2017:                    6.75 percent                    2.22 percent                 3.04:1

2016:                    2.66 percent                    1.57 percent                 1.69:1

2015:                  22.63 percent                    2.88 percent                 7.86:1

2014:                  15.88 percent                    2.45 percent                 6.48:1

2013:                    6.15 percent                    1.84 percent                 3.34:1

2012:                 10.23 percent                     2.25 percent                 4.57:1

2011:                 11.92 percent                     1.55 percent                 7.69:1

2010:                30.71 percent                      2.56 percent              12.00:1

Another way to compare the Obama and Trump years in this respect: As previously noted on RealityChek, the constant dollar 3.21 percent GDP growth registered between the first quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 was the best such four-quarter growth stretch since the second quarter of 2014 and the second quarter of 2015 (when real growth was 3.37 percent).

Yet during that Obama high growth period, the real Made in Washington trade deficit shot up by 18.83 percent. During the Trump high growth period, this trade shortfall rose by only 4.99 percent.

The higher and broader tariffs on China threatened by the President to press Beijing in the current trade talks would represent the biggest test yet of the Trump policies’ impact on the health of America’s growth. But the March trade figures are the latest evidence that so far, they’ve passed such tests with flying colors.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The Latest Sign of Trump Success on Trade

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exports, GDP, gross domestic product, imports, inflation-adjusted growth, Made in Washington trade deficit, non-oil goods trade deficit, real exports, real GDP, real growth, real imports, real non-oil goods trade deficit, real trade deficit, tariffs, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

It’s still not possible to say confidently that the impact of tariff-related distortions are over (at least for the foreseeable future), and that President Trump’s trade policies are once again enabling the U.S. economy to grow strongly faster than its debt-producing trade deficits (i.e., more healthily and sustainably). That moment won’t arrive until May 9, when the last of the monthly trade figures for the first quarter of this year will be reported (at least in a preliminary form).

But Friday’s initial first quarter results for the gross domestic product (GDP – the main measure of the economy’s size and its growth), bring the moment a good deal closer.

Just to recap the main issue: I’ve explained on RealityChek (e.g., here) and elsewhere (e.g., here) that the real measure of Mr. Trump’s trade policy success or failure isn’t the level of U.S. trade deficits presented in isolation. It’s whether the economy can grow at adequate rates without pulling in ever more imports – which are both bought by consumers and used by producers as parts, components, and materials for their final products. Either way, though, their increases on net plunge America deeper and deeper into debt.

With anything as big as the American economy, trends don’t reverse themselves quickly. So the best evidence of change would indicate that the relevant arc is starting to bend in the right direction. In this case, that means signs that growth becomes or remains adequate as the growth of the trade deficit slows. That’s exactly the story that could be told convincingly with some of the latest releases of trade-related numbers (see, e.g., here and here), and that the new first quarter GDP results strengthened further.

First, it’s important to note that the new advance data show that, after adjusting for inflation, as of the first quarter, the U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace over a four-quarter period (3.21 percent) since the second quarter, 2014-second quarter, 2015 period (3.37 percent).

But the first sign that the new growth has been healthier growth emerges when the change in the real trade deficit is examined. During that previous, somewhat faster, growth period, the price-adjusted trade gap widened by 21.55 percent. During the last growth period, which was only slightly slower, the trade deficit actually shrank slightly – by 0.34 percent.

As known by RealityChek regulars, though, changes in the overall real trade deficit have only limited utility for judging the usefulness of American trade policy because the total flows include oil and services trade. The first is rarely the subject of trade diplomacy or policy-making, and liberalization of the latter has made only embryonic progress so far.

The portion of the trade shortfall most heavily influenced by trade policy decisions is that in non-oil goods – what I’ve called the Made in Washington trade deficit. Unfortunately, exact comparisons between the 2014-15 and 2018-19 growth periods can’t yet be made because even the preliminary results for the first quarter of this year won’t be published until the March trade data are released on May 9.

But between the second quarter of 2014 and the second quarter of 2015, the Made in Washington trade deficit jumped by 18.83 percent. Between the first two months of 2018 and the first two months of 2019, it increased by only 3.17 percent. And because of the fading of the tariff front-running effect (described in this post), it’s highly unlikely that the March and full first quarter numbers will change this arc significantly.

The improving trade deficit and its contribution to healthier economic performance also can be seen by examining the contribution made by that better balance to quarterly growth. In the first quarter of 2019, the 5.90 percent sequential shrinkage of the trade gap was responsible for 1.03 percentage points of the 3.13 percent annualized sequential growth. That’s 32.91 percent of the total – and the highest such figure since the fourth quarter of 2013, when the trade deficit’s decrease fueled 1.23 percent points of the 3.19 percent annualized sequential growth (38.56 percent).

Some other trade-related highlights of the new GDP report:

>Combined goods and services exports in the first quarter hit a new record of $2.5765 trillion at an annual rate.

>Real goods exports were up, too, quarter-to-quarter. But their $1.7598 trillion annualized first quarter total was only the second all-time highest (after the $1.8092 trillion in the second quarter of 2018).

>After-inflation services exports represented a fifth straight quarterly record ($783.2 billion annualized).

>Constant dollar total imports in the first quarter fell on-quarter but they still represented the third highest total on record – $3.4758 trillion at an annual rate.

>After-inflation goods imports also fell sequentially to their third highest all-time level – $2.9131 trillion.

>Real services imports dropped quarter-to-quarter to their second highest all-time level – $563.3 billion.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The New Data Contain More Good Trade News for Trump – & the Economy

Tags

China, economic growth, GDP, goods trade deficit, gross domestic product, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, merchandise trade deficit, non-oil goods trade deficit, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The most reasonable conclusion to draw from today’s new U.S. trade figures (which cover February) is that, although evidence keeps growing that President Trump’s trade policies are returning to a success track, even only a fairly clearcut verdict won’t be possible until the March numbers come in.

The reason? By then, we’ll get at least the preliminary official read on the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year, and that will enable some significant light to be shed on a crucial (but almost completely ignored) measure of the Trump trade record – whether on his watch so far, the economy has been able to break or at least change the relationship between the growth of various measures of the trade deficit on the one hand, and overall economic growth on the other.

The answer matters because most economists have long insisted that an expanding economy and an improving trade balance almost never coexist. That claim is belied by the data, but the belief persists.

Further, good growth accompanied by better trade numbers would be of much more than academic interest. For the weaker the relationship between the worsening of the trade deficit and the growth of the economy, the more American growth would be stemming from domestic production, rather than domestic spending and borrowing, and vice versa.

As of the middle of last year, the economy had shown signs of notable progress along these lines. But in the last few months, as serious Trump tariffs on metals and especially on goods from China came on stream, the data started being distorted by front-running – i.e., importers rushing to procure affected goods before the levies kicked in and their prices rose.

Last month’s trade statistics contained important signs that these effects were ebbing, and the trend continued this month.  (A second distortion, however, is influencing these results – the China business slowdown that takes place each year with the arrival of the spring holiday.) All the same, January’s initially reported 14.61 percent monthly drop in the total trade gap (the biggest such decrease since March) was followed by a 3.43 percent decline in February (and from a January level that was revised down slightly). And at $49.38 billion, the overall trade shortfall was the smallest for a single month since last July’s $51.44 billion.

Meanwhile, the total two-month fall-off in the total trade gap (17.56 percent) was the biggest such decrease since March-May, 2015 (20.50 percent). And this is where we come to the main unknown: How do these instances of trade deficit shrinkage compare with the economy’s overall performance? Although Washington doesn’t track GDP on a monthly basis, it’s worth noting that from the second quarter of 2015 to the third quarter (the period roughly corresponding with that earlier trade deficit narrowing, growth on a pre-inflation annualized basis was 1.40 percent.

What about such growth during the first part of this year? That’s the figure we’ll need to wait for until later this month. At the same time, even then, an even more important question will remain unanswered for a while longer: Can the combination of an improved trade performance and continued growth last? In 2015, it was short-lived. Indeed, the current dollar U.S. economic growth rate in full-year, 2016 (2.44 percent) was less than half of the full-year, 2015 pace (5.07 percent). Unfortunately, the durability of this trend won’t be known for many more months at a minimum.

Nonetheless, there’s an even more rigorous test that the Trump trade policies need to pass – whether they can manage to maintain healthy overall economic growth while encouraging a reduction in that portion of the U.S. trade deficit that’s strongly influenced by trade policy decisions in the first place. As known by RealityChek regulars, that Made in Washington trade deficit strips out oil (because it’s almost never the subject of trade policymaking) and services (because trade liberalization of that activity remains in its infancy). On this front, signs of Trump trade progress haven’t shown up yet.

From January-February, 2017 (a period during which the Trump presidency began) to January-February, 2018, this Made in Washington deficit rose at the considerable pace of 18.47 percent. On the imperfect first-quarter-to-first-quarter basis, pre-inflation GDP was up 4.58 percent. That ratio was actually worse than during former President Barack Obama’s last year in office. Then, GDP expanded by 4.09 percent but the Made in Washington deficit actually dipped – by 0.50 percent.

As with the overall trade deficit, the Obama years sometimes witnessed strong economic growth during which the Made in Washington trade deficit worsened only moderately. For example, between the first quarters of 2011 and 2012, current dollar GDP improved by 4.80 percent and the Made in Washington trade deficit only widened by 9.80 percent. But growth slowed sharply thereafter. The January-February, 2009 to January-February, 2010 period was another time of Made in Washington trade shortfall shrinkage – by 3.13 percent. But GDP climbed by only a weak 2.27 percent.

Between January-February 2018 and January-February 2019, the Made in Washington deficit was up by a modest 2.48 percent. Can respectable growth be maintained? Tune in.

In the meantime, legitimate encouragement from the February trade figures can be drawn from the nature of the improvement. Sequential combined goods and services import growth was just 0.23 percent, while exports rose 1.13 percent – nearly five times faster.

On month, the Made in Washington deficit shrunk by 1.96 percent. That improvement combined with its 10.01 percent sequential drop in January made for the biggest such two-month decrease (11.86 percent) since that March-May period of 2015 (13.36 percent).

Good news came on the China trade front as well. February saw the biggest month-to-month reduction in the chronic, immense U.S. goods deficit with the People’s Republic (28.17 percent) since February, 2017 (36.04 percent). In addition, the resulting two-month decline in this trade gap (32.77 percent) was the biggest such figure since January-March, 2013 (36.16 percent) and the second biggest going all the way back to October-December, 2001 (39.87 percent).

An 18.21 percent surge in American merchandise exports helped (especially since it followed a 22.31 percent monthly plunge). But the 20.21 percent monthly falloff in the much greater amount of goods imports was the biggest contributor – and represented the biggest such decrease since February, 2017 as well, not to mention the second biggest since recessionary February, 2009 (23.84 percent).

February’s manufacturing trade performance was excellent as well – relatively speaking, of course, since the deficit remains enormous in absolute terms (topping $1 trillion last year).

But industry’s trade gap plummeted by 20.02 percent on month in February, as exports rose 1.85 percent and imports sank by 9.14 percent. And the gap shows signs of stabilizing on a year-on-year basis as well, as it’s up a mere 0.37 percent during the first two months of this year compared with the first two months of 2018.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Banner Month and Year for Trade (Deficits)

Tags

Canada, China, exports, gross domestic product, high tech goods, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, Mexico, NAFTA, non-oil goods trade deficit, North American Free Trade Agreement, recession, recovery, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

This morning’s U.S. trade figures revealed numerous records and multi-year highs set for the month of December and full-year 2017, but few represented good news. The monthly overall U.S. trade deficit hit its highest level ($53.12 billion) since October, 2008 ($70.14 billion) – just as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy plunged financial markets and the entire economy into a tailspin. On an annual basis, the combined goods and services trade shortfall was the highest ($566.03 billion) since 2008’s $708.73 billion. And its yearly increase (12.13 percent) was the greatest since 2010’s 28.89 percent. New annual records were also set for total monthly imports ($256.47 billion) and annual imports ($2.895 trillion), as well as for monthly exports ($203.35 billion). But annual exports ($2.329 trillion) fell short of 2014’s record $2.376 trillion.

America’s manufacturing trade deficit fell for the second straight month in December, to $78.24 billion. But that performance was enough to send the annual total into record territory ($927.48 billion). The U.S. goods deficit with China in December took its biggest monthly tumble (13.05 percent) since February’s 26.64 percent. The December total ($30.81 billion) also was the lowest since May’s $31.61 billion, and resulted largely from an all-time high for U.S. goods exports ($13.67 billion). Nonetheless, the $375.22 billion annual merchandise shortfall with China set a new record as both goods exports to and imports from China hit new records of $505.60 billion and $130.37 billion, respectively.

In addition, as President Trump continued to try renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the American goods deficit with Mexico increased in 2017 to $71.06 billion – its highest level since 2007’s $74.80 billion.

Another all-time high was set by the U.S. deficit in high tech goods. At $110.38 billion, it featured both record exports ($353.87 billion) but also record imports ($464.26 billion). Monthly high tech exports also entered record monthly territory in December ($33.53 billion).

The new trade figures also showed that monthly trade deficit surge helped boost the growth drag of the “Made in Washington” trade deficit to 18.47 percent during the current economic recovery. This is the shortfall in trade flows heavily influenced by U.S. trade policy, and its increase since the last recession ended has sliced $538.89 billion after inflation from the cumulative expansion of real gross domestic product.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (December) and full-year 2017 trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>The combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit rose on month in December by 5.32 percent to hit $53.12 billion – its highest level since October, 2008 ($70.14 billion), when the bankruptcy of Wall Street investment giant Lehman Brothers sparked a dizzying tailspin in financial markets and the real economy.

>December’s shortfall helped push the annual U.S. trade deficit for 2017 to its highest yearly total ($566.03 billion) since 2008 ($708.73 billion). Moreover, the overall trade deficit’s annual increase of 12.13 percent represented its fastest growth since 2010 (28.89 percent).

>The new trade figures showed that monthly imports in December reached an all-time high of $256.47 billion – their second monthly record in a row and a 2.49 percent increase from November’s $250.24 billion.

>Last year’s total imports set a new annual record as well. At $2.895 trillion, they were 6.73 percent higher than 2016’s total and 1.02 percent greater than the previous record of $2.866 trillion set in 2014.

>December monthly overall exports were a new record, too – rising 1.77 percent sequentially to $203.35 billion.

>But 2017’s annual combined goods and services exports of $2.329 trillion, though 5.49 percent higher than the 2016 figure, were lower than the annual record of $2.376 trillion, set in 2014.

>The huge, chronic American trade deficit in manufacturing fell sequentially in December for the second straight month, with its $78.24 billion level representing a 9.23 percent improvement.

>Manufacturing exports advanced on month by 2.16 percent, from $92.88 billion to $94.89 billion, while imports sank by 3.32 percent, from $179.08 billion to $173.13 billion.

>On an annual basis, however, the manufacturing deficit set its latest record high by climbing 7.46 percent percent to $927.48 billion.

>Between 2016 and 2016, manufacturing exports advanced by 4.34 percent, but imports swelled by 5.75 percent.

>The behavior of the manufacturing-heavy American merchandise trade deficit with China mirrored that of the overall manufacturing shortfall.

>December’s $30.81 billion U.S. goods trade deficit with China was 13.05 percent lower than November’s total, a sequential decrease that was the fastest since February’s 26.64 percent. The December figure was also the lowest since May’s $31.61 billion.

>Moreover, December’s U.S. goods exports of $13.67 billion were a record – eclipsing the previous peak of $13.15 billion, set in October, 2013, by 4.20 percent.

>Nonetheless, the full-year 2017 U.S. merchandise trade shortfall with China widened by 8.13 percent on year to a new record of $375.23 billion. That figure topped the old (2015) all-time high of $367.26 billion by 2.17 percent.

>U.S. goods exports to the strongly growing Chinese economy grew by 12.75 percent in 2017 to $130.37 billion – another record, and 5.43 percent better than 2014’s former all-time best of $123.66 billion.

>U.S. goods imports from China, however, hit a new record, too. At $505.60 billion, they were up 9.29 percent on year, and topped the previous (2015) record by 4.64 percent.

>The new trade figures could reenforce President Trump’s determination to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

>As with China, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with Mexico fell on month in December to $5.37 billion. That level was the lowest since July’s $4.92 billion, and a sequential drop of 10.14 percent from November’s levels.

>But year-on-year, this goods shortfall increased by 10.41 percent, to $71.06 billion – the highest level since 2007’s $74.80 billion.

>The goods trade deficit with Canada more than doubled on month, to $2.20 billion, and the annual total rebounded by 60.46 percent, to $17.58 billion after plunging by 28.73 percent on year in 2016, to $10.96 billion.

>The 2016 Canada goods deficit is the highest since 2014, but it’s less than half the level of that year’s $36.47 billion.

>America’s trade in high tech goods roughly duplicated this pattern, too. The monthly deficit plummeted by 36.65 percent from the record $15.63 billion in November to $10.06 billion. That monthly drop was the biggest since February’s 46.39 percent nosedive.

>This improvement stemmed from a 10.84 percent increase in exports to $33.53 billion – a new monthly record – and a five percent drop in imports from November’s record $45.88 billion to $43.59 billion.

>On an annual basis, though, the high tech goods deficit surged to a new all-time high of $110.38 billion in 2017 – up 31.93 percent on year and 11.82 percent higher than the previous record of $98.72 billion, set in 2011. The 2017 annual jump in the deficit was also the biggest since 2010’s 44.07 percent, when the current U.S. recovery was in its early stages.

>U.S. advanced technology exports rose on year in 2017 by 2.42 percent, to a record $353.87 billion, while imports increased by 8.17 percent to their own record – $464.26 billion.

>According to the new trade figures, which make fourth quarter, 2017 calculations possible, the growth drag on the U.S. economic recovery of the “Made in Washington” trade deficit worsened significantly from its third quarter levels.

>This shortfall is comprised of trade flows influenced heavily by American trade agreements and similar policies – i.e., trade in non-oil goods, where these measures have had much greater effects on imports and exports than they have in services trade and energy trade.

>As of the third quarter of 2017, the increase in this deficit since the current recovery began in mid-2009 had cut cumulative American inflation-adjusted growth by 16.36 percent, or $459.9 billion.

>The new trade figures peg this lost growth at 18.47 percent of the recovery total, or $538.89 billion.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Record Shortfalls in Manufacturing & High Tech Goods Key U.S. Trade Deficit Surge

Tags

Census Bureau, China, exports, high tech goods, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, Mexico, non-oil goods trade deficit, services trade, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit jumped 8.56 percent on month in October, to $48.73 billion, on new record trade shortfalls in key sectors of the economy, and in trade flows heavily influenced by U.S. trade policy. The monthly manufacturing trade deficit soared 11.35 percent sequentially to $88.98 billion – an all-time high that topped the previous record by (set in August) by 8.35 percent. In high tech goods, the October trade gap rose on-month by 33.67 percent, to a record $13.82 billion, largely on unprecedented ($43.39 billion) monthly imports.

The real non-oil goods deficit – which can be considered “Made in Washington” because it entails commerce covered by free trade deals and other policy decisions, and which will weigh on the most closely followed GDP figures – hit $65.21 billion in October, 8.07 percent higher than September’s figure, and 3.85 percent greater than the previous (March, 2015) record of $62.80 billion. The non-oil goods gap also hit a record on a pre-inflation basis in October, as it rose 7.96 percent to $64.87 billion. That total topped the previous record ($61.74 billion, also set in March, 2015) by 5.07 percent.

October’s data also revealed new monthly all-time highs for services exports and imports – and each for the second straight months. The former rose 0.46 percent sequentially, from a downwardly adjusted $65.29 billion to $65.59 billion; and the latter rose by 0.69 percent, from an upwardly adjusted $44.93 billion to $45.24 billion.

Although the October China goods deficit was “only” the third highest monthly total on record ($35.23 billion), October U.S. goods imports from the PRC set new a monthly high of $48.20 billion. Ditto for merchandise imports from Mexico ($28.72 billion). The October trade report was also notable for revising the September total deficit sharply (3.20 percent) upward, from $43.50 billion to $44.89 billion. Most of this upgrade came in the services trade, where the September surplus estimate was pushed 7.03 percent higher.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (October) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>A series of new record trade gaps in key parts of the economy (notably manufacturing and high tech goods), and in trade flows strongly shaped by U.S. trade policy (notably, non-oil goods) helped widen the total U.S. goods and services trade deficit by 8.56 percent on month in October. The $48.73 billion figure was the highest such total since January’s $48.78 billion.

>The new manufacturing trade deficit set in October ($88.98 billion), eclipsed the previous record of $82.15 billion (set in August), by 8.31 percent. Sequentially, the manufacturing trade shortfall rose 11.35 percent.

>October manufacturing exports of $93.84 billion were 3.22 percent higher than September’s $90.92 billion total. But the much greater amount of imports rose more than twice as fast – 7.03 percent – and hit $182.83 billion.

>Year-to-date, the manufacturing trade deficit is running seven percent ahead of last year’s record total – which was an all-time high.

>On this basis, manufacturing exports have increased by 3.79 percent, and imports have risen by 5.24 percent.

>In high tech goods trade, the new October record deficit of $13.82 billion bested the old (November, 2016) mark of of $13.79 billion by just 0.21 percent.

>A 6.87 percent monthly rise in high tech goods exports, to a new record $43.39 billion, was largely responsible.

>This import jump also helped the trade deficit in this volatile category surge by 33.42 percent sequentially.

>High tech goods exports declined on month in October by 2.29 percent, to $29.57 billion.

>The high tech goods deficit is running 28.25 percent ahead of last year’s pace so far this year, and seems headed for a new annual record, too.

>America’s non-oil goods trade balances can be considered “Made in Washington,” because they exclude commerce in services and energy (where trade liberalization has made relatively few advances), and therefore include products whose trade performance is strongly affected by trade agreements and related policy decisions.

>The real non-oil goods trade balance is especially important, since it’s a component of the most closely followed (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) figures, and since its changes reveal whether trade policies are contributing to or subtracting from growth.

>So it can’t be good news that this chronic deficit hit an all-time high in October of $65.21 billion – 3.85 percent greater than the previous (March, 2015) record of $62.80 billion, and 8.07 percent higher than September’s $60.34 billion.

>As a result, unless the November and/or December figures decrease enough, the trade drag on the current economic recovery will rebound in the final quarter of 2017 after falling to 16.32 percent ($459.2 billion in lost real growth) according to the latest third quarter figures.

>The pre-inflation non-oil goods deficit hit a new record as well in October. The $64.87 billion total represented a 7.96 percent rise over September’s total, and a 5.07 percent increase over the previous record ($61.74 billion, also set in March, 2015).

>Other October records were set in monthly services exports and imports – and each represented a second-straight all-time high.

>Services exports in October rose by 0.46 percent on month, from a downwardly adjusted $65.29 billion to $65.59 billion; while imports increased by 0.69 percent, from an upwardly adjusted $44.93 billion to $45.24 billion.

>The massive, longstanding U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China did not set a record in October – although the $35.23 billion total was the third highest on record, and represented a 1.71 percent increase over September’s 6.74 percent figure.

>Yet U.S. goods imports from China did reach an all-time highs in October, rising 6.06 percent sequentially, to $48.20 billion – 5.19 percent greater than the previous $45.82 billion mark set in August.

>In October, America’s merchandise exports to the PRC did stay well below their monthly records, but still shot up 20.03 percent sequentially, to $12.97 billion.

>Year-to-date, the China goods deficit is running seven percent ahead of last year’s total – and 0.30 percent ahead of the January-October, 2015 rate, which eventually set the current annual record.

>U.S. merchandise imports from Mexico rose to an all-time high in October, too, with the $28.72 billion figure coming in 11.37 percent higher than September’s and 2.38 percent higher than the previous $28.05 billion record set in March.

>The U.S.-Mexico goods deficit – a prime target of President Trump’s trade policies – rose by 15.91 percent sequentially in October, as America’s goods exports rose on month by 10.08 percent to reach $21.11 billion. That represented their second best total ever after October, 2014’s $21.35 billion.

>Another prominent feature of the October trade report was a major (3.20 percent) upward revision in the September deficit – which is now judged to have been $44.89 billion instead of $43.50 billion. The new estimates were largely fueled by a 7.03 percent downgrading of the September services trade surplus, from $21.89 billion to $20.35 billion.

>Overall, the combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit is running 11.86 percent ahead of last year’s total, with total exports 5.32 percent higher and a 6.52 percent greater imports level.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Trade Deficit Falls Slightly in August as Strong Exports Outweigh Record Manufacturing Shortfall

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Canada, Census Bureau, China, European Union, exports, goods trade, imports, Japan, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, Mexico, non-oil goods trade deficit, oil, recovery, services, South Korea, Trade, trade deficit, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

In August, the combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit declined by 2.67 percent sequentially to hit $42.40 billion – its lowest monthly level since September, 2016’s $38.47 billion. The improvement came even though several typical major engines of trade deficit growth worsened.

A new record was set for the chronic and huge manufacturing trade deficit, with its $82.15 billion August total topping the previous high (last November’s $80.75 billion) by 1.73 percent. The manufacturing-heavy China goods gap, meanwhile, grew to its highest monthly level ($34.89 billion) since September, 2015 ($36.29 billion). And the pre-inflation oil trade deficit, which has decreased dramatically in recent years, staged its strongest monthly rebound (jumping by 60.59 percent) since June, 2016 (60.84 percent). Pointing to a hurricane effect: the biggest monthly drop in current dollar oil exports (11.53 percent) since August, 2015 (12.62 percent).

Boosting the August trade performance was the new all-time high hit for services exports ($66.11 billion), the best overall monthly exports figure ($195.32 billion) since December, 2014 ($197.18 billion), and the best monthly goods exports reading ($129.21 billion) since April, 2015 ($129.72 billion). America’s goods trade deficits with Mexico and South Korea, both of which have been criticized by President Trump, increased sequentially in August (by 25.49 percent and 15.20 percent). And the longstanding Japan merchandise deficit grew by 13.49 percent on month.

But merchandise trade shortfall with Trump trade target Canada plummeted by 61.43 percent month-to-month, and the goods gap with the European Union fell by 7.92 percent. The latest figures on the growth-slowing impact of the Made in Washington trade deficit show that it’s weakened slightly (from slowing the U.S. economic recovery by 17.40 percent as of the first quarter of this year to cutting inflation-adjusted growth by 17.30 percent in the second quarter). The new August trade figures indicate that it might decline modestly again once third quarter GDP and September trade data are released.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (August) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>America’s combined goods and services trade deficit declined by 2.67 percent on month in August to its lowest level ($42.40 billion) since September, 2016 ($38.47 billion), as a new monthly record manufacturing trade shortfall and poor China and hurricane-related oil results were more than offset by strong export performances, including a new all-time high for services exports.

>The August manufacturing trade deficit of $82.15 billion was 1.73 percent greater than the previous record total of $80.75 billion, set last November.

>August manufacturing exports grew by a solid 6.82 percent on month, to $93.51 billion. But the far larger amount of imports rose by 5.07 percent, to $175.67 billion.

>Year-to-date, the manufacturing trade deficit is running 5.56 percent ahead of last year’s record pace. Manufacturing exports for the January-August period are up 4.04 percent, and imports have increased nearly as fast – 4.72 percent.

>Fueling these manufacturing trade results in August was a 3.99 percent month-to-month widening of America’s manufacturing-heavy trade deficit with China. The $34.89 billion total was the largest monthly figure since September, 2015’s $36.29 billion.

>U.S. goods exports to China improved sequentially in August by an impressive 8.75 percent, but merchandise imports, which are much greater, increased by 5.08 percent.

>Year-to-date, the merchandise deficit with China is 6.24 percent higher than last year’s total – which was the second largest annual figure ever.

>The pre-inflation U.S. oil trade deficit, which has nosedived in recent years thanks to the energy production revolution, rose in August from $3.02 billion to $4.85 billion. That 60.59 percent monthly increase was the biggest such rise since the 60.84 percent surge registered in June, 2016.

>Pointing to the effects of this year’s violent hurricane season, oil exports in August recorded their biggest monthly decrease (11.53 percent) since August, 2015 (12.62 percent).

>On a year-to-date basis, however despite the longer-term improvement, this oil shortfall is outpacing last year’s by a stunning 36.01 percent.

>The hurricane impact on oil was also suggested by the excellent export data produced by other major sectors of the economy.

>Services set a new overseas sales record in August, and reached their second all-time monthly high in the last three months. August’s $66.11 billion bested June’s $65.90 billion by 0.33 percent.

>Total U.S. exports improved by 0.42 percent, to $195.32 billion, and thereby hit their highest level since December, 2014’s $197.18 billion.

>Goods exports rose even faster sequentially in August, by 0.44 percent to $129.21 billion. The result was their strongest month since April, 2015 ($129.72 billion).

>Having set reform of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a priority, President Trump no doubt noticed that the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with Mexico surged by 25.49 percent on month in August, to $6.18 billion. U.S. goods exports to Mexico were 5.73 percent higher in August than in July, but import growth was 9.68 percent.

>The year-to-date merchandise deficit with Mexico is so far 11.72 percent higher than in the first eight months of 2016.

>America’s merchandise trade deficit with South Korea, which has just this week agreed to substantive talks on modifying its bilateral trade deal with the United States, increased by 15.20 percent sequentially in August, to $2.22 billion.

>U.S. goods exports to South Korea actually sank by 8.21 percent on month – the biggest such decrease since January’s 21.51 percent. America’s merchandise imports from South Korea fell, too, and for the second straight month – but by only 0.70 percent.

>America’s merchandise trade deficit with South Korea is down so far this year by fully 28.07 percent on a year-to-date basis. But since the bilateral trade deal went into effect, in March, 2012, it’s nearly tripled.

>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit with Japan increased notably (13.49 percent) as well on month in August, to $6.55 billion.

>America’s goods exports to the world’s third biggest single national economy decreased by 5.52 percent month-to-month, while its goods imports rose by 4.02 percent.

>Year-to-date, this merchandise deficit with Japan is running 12.54 percent ahead of last year’s level.

>Better news came in merchandise trade with America’s other NAFTA partner, Canada. The U.S. deficit – which has been volatile recently – plummeted by 61.43 percent in August, to just $410 million.

>American goods exports to Canada improved by 12.50 percent. Imports climbed, too, but by only 9.06 percent.

>Year-to-date, though, the U.S. merchandise trade shortfall with Canada is running nearly three times ahead of last year’s rate.

>Improvement in August was also seen in American merchandise trade with the European Union (EU) – the world’s largest economic unit. On a monthly basis, the U.S. deficit narrowed in August by 7.92 percent, to $12.39 billion.

>U.S. goods exports to the EU advanced by 9.08 percent on month, while imports were up only 2.52 percent.

>Year-to-date, moreover, the American merchandise deficit with the EU is running 0.72 percent behind last year’s rate.

>The latest data for the growth drag on the still weak U.S. economic recovery of rising trade deficits are only from the second quarter. But by both major measures, they show that trade’s bite into the expansion is easing, but remains deep.

>Since the recovery began, in mid-2009, to the end of the second quarter of this year, the increase in the trade deficit has reduced cumulative after-inflation output during the expansion by 9.24 percent, or $247.30 billion. That’s down from the 10.04 percent, and $255.9 billion, as of the first quarter.

>The toll on the expansion attributable to U.S. trade policy is diminishing, too, but has been much higher. This Made in Washington deficit strips out of inflation-adjusted American trade flows energy and services – two sectors where trade policy and related decisions have had only marginal effects so far. The remainder of U.S. trade flows – of goods except oil – are heavily influenced by policy.

>Since the recovery’s onset, the rise of this Made in Washington deficit has cost the recovery $462.8 billion in lost growth in absolute terms – or 17.30 percent of the cumulative total. That’s down from a growth bite of 17.40 percent worth ($443.3 billion in absolute terms) for the first quarter.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Mixed Bag of May U.S. Trade Figures

Tags

(What's Left of) Our Economy. trade, Census Bureau, China, exports, Germany, high tech goods trade, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods trade deficit, recovery, services trade, South Korea, Trump

America’s goods and services trade deficit decreased by 2.27 percent sequentially in May, to $46.51 billion, as services exports ($64.82 billion) and services imports ($43.84 billion) both hit all-time monthly highs. Combined exports rose 0.45 percent on month to $192.03 billion – their best total since April, 2015 ($192.59 billion).

But the huge, chronic U.S. manufacturing trade shortfall jumped by 13.92 percent, to $80.10 billion, its second highest level ever (after last November’s $80.75 billion). Merchandise exports to South Korea – whose free trade deal with the United States has been faulted by President Trump – rose sequentially to a record monthly level of $4.49 billion. Yet the immense U.S. goods trade deficit with China soared by 14.39 percent, to an eight-month high of $31.61 billion. The jump came amid signs of higher overall U.S.-China tensions.

And the overall year-to-date U.S. trade deficit of $233.07 billion was its highest since January-May, 2012’s $238 billion, when growth was somewhat faster. In fact, the cumulative trade drag on the long but weak American economic recovery (as of the first quarter of 2017) remained above 10.50 percent (representing nearly $230 billion in lost inflation-adjusted growth). Nearly twice as great has been the growth hit from the increase in the Made in Washington real non-oil goods deficit was still nearly twice as great.

Here are selected highlights of the latest monthly (May) trade balance figures released this morning by the Census Bureau:

>In May, the total U.S. trade deficit dropped by 2.27 percent, from a downwardly adjusted $47.59 billion to $46.51 billion.

>Highlighting the results were record services exports ($64.82 billion) and services imports ($43.84 billion). The services trade surplus improved by 1.04 percent on month, from April’s upwardly adjusted $20.77 billion to $20.99 billion.

>The total trade deficit’s narrowing was also helped by the best monthly combined goods and services exports figure ($192.03 billion) since April, 2015’s $192.59 billion. The May total export level was 0.45 percent higher than April’s upwardly adjusted $191.17 billion.

> Total imports inched down by a mere 0.09 percent in May, from April’s upwardly adjusted $238.76 billion to $238.54 billion.

>Another May record: U.S. merchandise exports to South Korea, whose 2012 trade agreement has been criticized by President Trump. These American goods sales reached $4.49 billion – a 1.48 percent increase over April’s $4.43 billion.

>U.S. goods imports from South Korea declined by 3.65 percent on month in May, to $5.96 billion, and the merchandise deficit plummeted by 16.60 percent, to $1.46 billion. That total, however, is still nearly three times greater than the trade gap when the trade treaty went into effect in March, 2012 ($561 million).

>At the same time, as Mr. Trump has soured on China for North Korea-related reasons, the PRC’s mammoth goods trade surplus with the United States jumped 14.39 percent sequentially in May to $31.69 billion – an eight month high.

>U.S. goods exports to China climbed by 3.59 percent sequentially in May, but imports were up much faster – by 11.56 percent.

>Year-to-date, moreover, the China merchandise trade surplus is up 5.28 percent.

>The widening of the China gap could largely explain the big (13.92 percent) sequential deterioration of the huge, chronic U.S. manufacturing trade deficit – from $70.31 billion in April to $80.10 billion in May. That May figure is the second worst on record, after last November’s $80.75 billion.

>Manufacturing exports advanced by 3.80 percent on month in May, from $89.26 billion to $92.65 billion.

>But the far larger amount of manufacturing imports soared by 8.26 percent, from $159.57 billion to $172.75 billion.

>These results pushed the January-May manufacturing trade deficit up 6.96 percent, to $356.226 billion.

>Year-to-date manufacturing exports have risen by 3.67 percent in 2017. But the much larger amount of imports is up 5.10 percent.

>The good May results notwithstanding, the total U.S. trade deficit for the first five months of 2017 ($233.07 billion) was the worst such figure since the $238 billion of 2012 – when economic growth was somewhat faster.

>America’s trade performance with Germany, which the president also has criticized, provided better news in May. The U.S. merchandise shortfall dropped by 8.90 percent on month, to $4.99 billion, as American goods exports advanced and imports fell. And year-to-date, the bilateral gap is down by 6.73 percent.

>Less encouraging were May’s high tech goods trade numbers – which tend to be volatile. The American global deficit in this category skyrocketed by 56.73 percent, to $9.47 billion.

>U.S. high tech goods exports were off only by 0.51 percent sequentially, to $28.48 billion. But imports rose by 9.46 percent, to $37.95 billion.

>Year-to-date, the high tech goods gap has ballooned by 37.13 percent – to $34.58 billion. As with the overall trade deficit, that’s the highest figure since the first five months of 2012 ($35.21 billion).

>The cumulative trade drag on the long but slow American economic recovery stood at 10.66 percent as of the first quarter of 2017. That means that the increase in the inflation-adjusted trade deficit since the expansion began in the second quarter of 2009 has cut real economic growth during this period by $229.3 billion.

>The trade drag of the Made in Washington trade deficit – which adjusts trade flows for inflation and omits service and energy trade flows that are only lightly affected by U.S. trade policy – has been nearly twice as great. As of the first quarter, it stood at 20.57 percent of cumulative growth, or a $441.51 billion hit.

>Between April and May, this real non-oil goods trade deficit grew shrank from $62.23 billion to a still lofty $60.38 billion. If June’s total is comparable, the Made in Washington trade drag on the recovery will rise yet higher, and will be calculable once the second quarter gross domestic product figures are released.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: April’s U.S. Trade Figures Sure Weren’t Winners

Tags

China, economic growth, exports, GDP, Germany, gross domestic product, high tech goods, imports, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, non-oil goods trade deficit, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Since last Friday was one of those days when both the U.S. jobs figures and trade figures were released the same morning, and since I was traveling that day, I didn’t get a chance to report on the latter as promptly as usual. But that doesn’t mean the trade figures should be overlooked! Here’s a quick rundown of the high- (or low-) lights, which cover the month of April:

>The combined goods and services U.S. trade deficit rose by 5.15 percent on month, from $45.28 billion to $47.62 billion. But for a change, the big news in this total trade shortfall category was in the revision for the March gap – it was upgraded from an initially reported $43.71 billion. That’s a ginormous 3.61 percent.

>Total exports fell sequentially in April by 0.25 percent, from $191.46 billion to $190.98 billion, and total imports increased from $236.74 billion to $238.59 billion, or 0.78 percent.

>And quite naturally, the March revisions were substantial, too. That month’s combined export total was upgraded by 0.25 percent, and the much larger combined import total revised up by 0.87 percent.

>Also disturbing about the new trade figures: They show that for the first four months of this year, the total trade deficit is up by 13.43 percent on a year-to-date basis. That’s more than four times as fast as the total economy grew between the first quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year (4.08 percent – both these figures are in pre-inflation dollars).

>With Germany’s trade policies in the Trump administration’s cross-hairs and therefore in the news, it’s noteworthy that the U.S. merchandise shortfall with Germany grew sequentially by 5.43 percent, to $5.48 billion in April. That’s the highest monthly total since last August’s $6.05 billion.

>U.S. goods imports from Germany fell by 4.11 percent sequentially, but America’s goods exports sank on month by 15.34 percent.

> At the same time, the Germany goods deficit is down by 5.24 percent year-to-date.

>Of America’s other major trade partners, only the merchandise deficit with China increased significantly on month – from $24.58 billion to $27.63 billion, or 12.42 percent.

>U.S. goods exports to China advanced by 2.22 percent, but imports rose by 9.55 percent.

>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China is 4.21 percent larger in the first four months of this year than it was the first four months of last year.

>The April manufacturing trade deficit of $70.31 billion was just 0.79 percent higher than March’s $69.76 billion. Manufactures exports were off by 7.91 percent sequentially, while the much greater amount of imports fell by just 4.27 percent.

>Year to date, the manufacturing trade deficit looks set to establish yet another annual record. At $276.12 billion, it’s already running 6.20 percent ahead of last year’s pace.

>For the first four months of this year, manufacturing exports are up by 3.44 percent, but imports are 4.64 percent higher.

>The story is even worse in high tech goods. The trade shortfall actual dipped by 0.49 percent on month in April – from $6.07 to $6.04 billion. Exports were 8.28 percent lower than in March, and imports were off by 7.01 percent.

>Year-to-date, however, the high tech trade gap is up by 36.69 percent – from $18.37 billion to $25.11 billion. Exports have inched up by 0.25 percent, but imports are 5.42 percent higher.

>The U.S. trade deficit in oil fell by a sharp 35.56 percent sequentially in April, from $8.43 billion to $5.43 billion – the lowest monthly total since last September ($5.13 billion).

>But the April non-oil goods deficit of $61.71 billion was 9.22 percent higher than March’s $56.50 billion. It was also the highest monthly total for this shortfall – which is heavily influenced by U.S. trade agreements and other trade policy decisions – since March, 2015’s $61.74 billion (the highest monthly figure in a data series that goes back to 1992).

>Moreover, in real terms, the April non-oil goods deficit climbed 7.62 percent on month, to $62.04 billion. That’s also the highest total since March, 2015’s $62.80 billion (which was another all-time high).

>Since the headline U.S. government data on changes in the gross domestic product (GDP) are adjusted for inflation, this lofty figure for the real non-oil goods deficit indicates that this Made in Washington shortfall’s growth will drag on economic growth in the second quarter of this year.