• About

RealityChek

~ So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time….

Tag Archives: nuclear missiles

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: Dangerous Establishment Delusions on North Korea

08 Saturday Jul 2017

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Black Hawk Down, Department of Defense, ICBMs, intercontinental ballistic missiles, James Syring, Japan, Mark Bowden, missile defense, Missile Defense Agency, North Korea, nuclear missiles, nuclear war, Our So-Called Foreign Policy, South Korea, The Atlantic

I’m really getting worried about the North Korea crisis – and not just because of the latest headline news since I last wrote on the subject. As most of you have heard or read by now, North Korea has just successfully tested a ballistic missile capable of hitting Alaska. This means that Pyongyang is perilously close to being able to hit American territory with a nuclear weapon. Given how rapid the North’s progress on this frightening front has been, it won’t be too much longer before this erratic (and I’m being charitable here) dictatorship figures out how to lengthen the range of these missiles, arm them with nuclear warheads, and put every inch of the United States in harm’s way.

Of course that’s terrifying enough. But comparably frightening is the continuingly blasé attitude that has underlain the response of the American foreign policy establishment – including a mainstream media that faithfully parrots its views. Just consider the two following items.

First, at the end of May, Admiral James Syring, head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, said that the Pentagon’s latest test of an anti-missile system showed the military’s ability to “outpace the threat” emanating from North Korea. Not that he’s the last word on the matter, since his views could be colored by political considerations. But this statement wasn’t per se transparently unreasonable.

Yet just a week later, Syring was singing a different tune. Testifying before Congress (that is, under oath), he stated “I would not say we are comfortably ahead of the threat; I would say we are addressing the threat that we know today.” Moreover, Syring attributed his judgment to “The advancements in the last six months have caused great concern to me and others, in the advancement of and demonstration of technology of ballistic missiles from North Korea.” If that’s not an admission that his previous statement (which had been made within that six-month time frame) was baloney, I don’t know what is.

But it gets better. Last Monday came the North Korean test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Last Tuesday, the U.S. government confirmed the missile’s range. But a Defense Department spokesman that same day declared, “We do have confidence in our ability to defend against the limited threat, the nascent threat that is there.”

Now it’s important to remember that, as I’ve written previously, the Pentagon’s definition of success is nothing less than hair-raising. It boils down to “We’ll get most of the missiles.” As in “some of the missiles get through.” As in “big American city (or two or three?) gets obliterated.” Indeed, the DoD spokesman repeated that very definition when he discussed the missile defense program’s track record so far: “It’s something we have mixed results on. But we also have an ability to shoot more than one interceptor.”

But let’s leave aside the Pentagon’s disturbing habit of practically defining out of existence the horrific costs of even a single failure. We still have a senior official telling us before the latest North Korean test that the nation is behind the curve, defense-wise, and then right after that test, one of his colleagues sending the message that all’s well. Pardon me for not feeling incredibly confident.

The second major sign of scary North Korea-related thinking comes from a post in The Atlantic by the magazine’s national correspondent, Mark Bowden. It needs to be specified here that Bowden is the author of Black Hawk Down, the widely and rightly acclaimed account of the debacle that brought to an end the Clinton administration’s looney military intervention in Somalia in the early 1990s. So he’s not your typical bloviating mainstream media pundit.

And that’s why I was so startled to read these passages in his July 5 essay on the implications of the latest North Korean missile test. According to Bowden, Pyongyang’s capabilities don’t “fundamentally alter the military standoff that has been in place for decades.” Why not? Because North Korean dictator Kim Jong and his father before him

“have long had the capability of inflicting mass casualties on South Korea and the nearly 30,000 American forces stationed there. In recent years, the range of Pyongyang’s missiles has included Guam and targets in Japan….So unless the lives of Americans on American soil are inherently more significant than the lives of those serving in that part of the world, or than Korean and Japanese lives, the game is the same. When death tolls are unthinkably high, it’s like multiplying infinity.”

No one of good will could dispute that, in an ideal world, all human lives – especially those of innocent civilians – are equally valuable, and indeed precious. But that’s not the kind of world we live in, and it’s a kind of world that’s been utterly unknown to our species since it wound up organizing itself into units that defined themselves at least to some extent by their distinctiveness from other units.

Today they’re called nation-states, but whether they have been family-based clans or kingdoms or empires or democratic republics or ideological dictatorships, they have invariably at some point determined that their differences could not be settled both peacefully and acceptably, and they’ve resorted to conflict. And whether their actions have been aggressive or defensive or somewhere in between, their actions have inevitably proceeded from the assumption that their subjects’ or citizens’ or comrades’ lives were, collectively, “more significant” than the collective lives of their opponents. What other assumption could they proceed from?

The same question – and answer – continually appears in peacetime, too. That’s why neither American forces nor the forces of any other countries seeking to advance humanitarian aims aren’t constantly being deployed to right wrongs across the globe – even when entire populations are being persecuted or worse. The leaderships of prospective “globocops” believe that their soldiers’ lives are “more significant” to them than the lives of those they would try to save.

And however despicably selfish these views might sound, does anyone out there, in the United States or elsewhere, really want their government to jettison this assumption and plunge into various overseas maelstroms or firestorms or powder kegs?

There is ample room for legitimate debate over how best to deal with North Korea (and Bowden’s Atlantic cover story this month does an excellent job of describing the strengths and weaknesses of the main options under discussion in Washington). There is also ample reason to suppose that some solutions could serve the interests of all the countries involved equally, or nearly equally, well.

But assuming that such win-win outcomes will be found is the height of irresponsibility. And there is absolutely no room for legitimate debate over whether the U.S. government should prioritize the interests (and lives) of its own soldiers and civilians first – at least not until Americans have the opportunity to consider the issue and unmistakably tell their leaders that their security is indeed no more important than that of, e.g., South Korea or Japan.

That, in a nutshell, is why the imminent development of North Korean missiles capable of launching nuclear attacks on American soil “fundamentally alters the military standoff” on the Korean peninsula. It’s also why I’ve concluded that the only acceptable option for the United States is to prioritize its own interests in the safest way possible, withdraw militarily from South Korea, deny the North any reason for attacking American territory, and let North Korea’s powerful neighbors decide what they can and can’t live with.

Although their lives can’t reasonably be seen by U.S. leaders as the equals of American lives, because geography makes their stakes in any outcome orders of magnitude greater, their judgments should be recognized as far superior.

Making News: Podcast of Today’s Laura Ingraham Show Appearance on Korea Crisis

07 Friday Jul 2017

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Making News, North Korea, nuclear missiles, The Laura Ingraham Show

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast is on-line of my appearance this morning on Laura Ingraham’s nationally syndicated radio show. Click here for a sharp exchange between the hostess and me on what America should do about the worsening nuclear missile threat posed by North Korea to U.S. territory. My segment starts at just past the 47-minute mark. Special bonus: We got off to something of a rocky start.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and and other developments.

Making News: Thom Hartmann and Laura Ingraham Interviews Coming Up!

05 Wednesday Jul 2017

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

China, Europe, Lifezette.com, Making News, North Korea, nuclear missiles, RT America, The Big Picture with Thom Hartmann, The Laura Ingraham Show, Trump

I’m pleased to report that I’ll be appearing on two major news talk shows over the next 24 hours.

Tonight, I’m back on The Big Picture with Thom Hartmann on RT America, where we’ll be talking about closely linked national security and economic developments that are challenging the Trump administration on fronts ranging from North Korea to China to Europe.  Click on this link to watch live on-line at 7 PM EST tonight.

And tomorrow morning, at 10:15 AM EST, I’m scheduled to return to Laura Ingraham’s nationally syndicated radio show to discuss the North Korea missile crisis.  The interview will pick up from my recent column on the subject for Laura’s Lifezette.com website – which has just gotten a lot newsier since North Korea’s test launch of a missile that can hit American territory with a nuclear warhead.  Listen live at this link.

As usual, I’ll be posting the streaming video and podcast of these appearances if you can’t tune in.  And keep checking back with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other events.

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: An Oncoming Asia Policy Crackup?

19 Tuesday Aug 2014

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Our So-Called Foreign Policy

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

ASEAN, Asia-Pacific, China, Japan, maritime tensions, nuclear missiles, Obama, Our So-Called Foreign Policy, Philippines, pivot

Things have gotten awfully interesting in the East Asia-Pacific region this month – and not in a good way. Although these developments are less dramatic than the violence rocking Iraq, Ukraine, and Gaza (no, I won’t add “Ferguson”!), they could threaten American security and prosperity at least as much if they stay on their current troubling track.

On my list:

>China keeps challenging the region’s maritime status quo, eliciting a warning from the Philippines over the weekend that its growing tendency to send “research vessels” into waters internationally recognized (except by Beijing) as part of Manila’s “exclusive economic zone” was needlessly raising tensions.

>As shown in their latest gabfest, however, the Philippines’ fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are reluctant to protest China’s moves openly for fear of fueling Chinese expansionism further – not to mention jeopardizing trade and investment ties.

>China’s state-run media revealed that Beijing has developed a new intercontinental ballistic missile that the Pentagon believes could be able to deliver multiple warheads on targets anywhere in the continental United States. China has long possessed “MIRVed” nuclear missiles capable of striking the American homeland, but the new weapon’s range reportedly has extended Chinese capabilities by 2,000 kilometers.

>Highly respected Australian analysts are now wondering whether the United States and other countries are fundamentally misinterpreting China’s motives in its Asian saber-rattling. Hugh White and Amy King of the Australian National University have just written that, contrary to the conventional wisdom that Beijing is counterproductively risking a revival of Japanese militarism with its recent belligerence, China may have confidently concluded that (in White’s words) “After twenty years of economic stagnation, political drift, demographic decline and natural disasters, Japan is simply too demoralised to remake itself into a serious independent military power again.”

Another Australian strategist, John Craig of the Centre for Policy and Development Systems, has speculated that, despite the high levels of Sino-Japanese tensions that have dominated headlines over the last year, Beijing is actually subtly paving the way for creating an anti-American alliance with nationalists in Tokyo that would oppose the free-market economic and democratic political orders that Washington has sought to establish in the region. The prospect of anti-American collaboration by East Asian giants whose economic and political traditions differ dramatically from America’s has also long been raised by veteran Asia specialist Eamonn Fingleton.

It’s virtually impossible for any outsider to know exactly what’s being planned or explored in Chinese and Japanese leadership circles – or even close. But the recent events that have been reliably reported cast major doubts on America’s long-time grand strategy in East Asia.

Since the end of World War II, Washington has maintained major military forces in the region and looked the other way as its major economies built or rebuilt by racking up huge trade surpluses with the United States that devastated many of America’s productive sectors. Before the fall of communism, the rationale for both policies was keeping China and/or the Soviet Union from controlling Asia’s resources, markets, and especially its military-industrial potential. After the Cold War, the U.S. presence was described as vital for preserving peace and stability in a booming region full of matchless business opportunities for American companies and workers alike.

The purely economic case for the U.S. approach vanished decades ago. Sure, the Asia-Pacific region keeps growing robustly. But because its countries as a group are by far America’s most difficult trade competitor, much of this growth continues to be generated at America’s expense. Since the current recovery began in mid-2009, U.S. merchandise trade deficits with these economies have grown by nearly 58 percent – compared with a 41 percent rise in the U.S. global goods trade deficit. That is, U.S.-Asia commerce is actually killing American growth and jobs on net — and at a rate much faster than that U.S. global trade and investment as a whole.

Now the developments above represent warnings are making the strategic underpinnings of America’s strategy – unchallenged military superiority (including nuclear escalation dominance) and reliable allies – look shakier than ever.

President Obama’s response so far? A strategic “pivot” back to the Asia Pacific motivated by an apparently faith-based insistence that economic engagement with the region is a winner for Americans, and by an at least equally dubious assumption that America’s Middle East wars were winding down for good. In other words, if you’re wondering how American leaders can possibly mess up worse on the world stage, before long you may simply have to look across the Pacific.

Blogs I Follow

  • Current Thoughts on Trade
  • Protecting U.S. Workers
  • Marc to Market
  • Alastair Winter
  • Smaulgld
  • Reclaim the American Dream
  • Mickey Kaus
  • David Stockman's Contra Corner
  • Washington Decoded
  • Upon Closer inspection
  • Keep America At Work
  • Sober Look
  • Credit Writedowns
  • GubbmintCheese
  • VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
  • Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS
  • New Economic Populist
  • George Magnus

(What’s Left Of) Our Economy

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Our So-Called Foreign Policy

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Im-Politic

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Signs of the Apocalypse

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

The Brighter Side

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Those Stubborn Facts

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

The Snide World of Sports

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Guest Posts

  • (What's Left of) Our Economy
  • Following Up
  • Glad I Didn't Say That!
  • Golden Oldies
  • Guest Posts
  • Housekeeping
  • Housekeeping
  • Im-Politic
  • In the News
  • Making News
  • Our So-Called Foreign Policy
  • The Snide World of Sports
  • Those Stubborn Facts
  • Uncategorized

Blog at WordPress.com.

Current Thoughts on Trade

Terence P. Stewart

Protecting U.S. Workers

Marc to Market

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Alastair Winter

Chief Economist at Daniel Stewart & Co - Trying to make sense of Global Markets, Macroeconomics & Politics

Smaulgld

Real Estate + Economics + Gold + Silver

Reclaim the American Dream

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Mickey Kaus

Kausfiles

David Stockman's Contra Corner

Washington Decoded

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Upon Closer inspection

Keep America At Work

Sober Look

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Credit Writedowns

Finance, Economics and Markets

GubbmintCheese

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

New Economic Populist

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

George Magnus

So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Follow Following
    • RealityChek
    • Join 5,343 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • RealityChek
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar