Tags
apportionment, Census Bureau, Democrats, demography, domestic migrants, Electoral College, House of Representatives, Im-Politic, politics, population, Republicans
Americans have always had two main ways to vote: at the ballot box and with their feet. Both are of course important, and in fact the second ultimately influences the first, as I’ll explain below. So it’s more than a little interesting that the Census Bureau has just released figures on “voting by foot” indicating that even though elections are telling us that the country is deeply divided between Democrats and Republicans, when it comes to desired places to live, the GOP could be building up a considerable advantage.
The Census figures supporting this claim are those showing domestic migration totals, which reveal how many Americans each year are literally picking up stakes from individual states and moving to others. According to the latest “National and State Population Estimates,” (more specifically, the fourth xls table downloadable from this link) which was released shortly before Christmas, seven of the ten states that lost the most domestic population to other states between July 1, 2021 and July 1, 2022 were governed by Democrats during that year. They are (in descending order):
California: -343,230 D
New York: -299,557 D
Illinois: -141,656 D
New Jersey: -64,231 D
Massachusetts: -57,292 R
Louisiana: -46,672 D
Maryland: -45,101 R
Pennsylvania: -39,957 D
Virginia -23,952 R
Minnesota: -19,400 D
Nor is this trend limited to the last year. Census also provides cumulative data going back to April, 2020, and these show the same pro-Republican trend. Again, seven of the ten states with the greatest domestic population loss were governed by Democrats during this period:
California: -871,217 D
New York: -664,921 D
Illinois: -282,048 D
Massachusetts: -110,866 R
New Jersey: -107,749 D
Louisiana: -80,278 D
Maryland: -68,287 R
Michigan: -43,188 D
Ohio: -39,995 R
Minnesota: -37,377 D
Moreover, the opposite is even “truer.” Of the ten states with the most domestic migration population gain between July 1, 2021 and July 1, 2022, nine were governed by Republicans:
Florida: +318,855 R
Texas: +230,961 R
No. Carolina: +99,796 D
So. Carolina: +84,030 R
Tennessee: +81,646 R
Georgia: +81,406 R
Arizona: +70,984 R
Idaho: +28,639 R
Alabama: +28,609 R
Oklahoma: +26,791 R
And the figures for the last two data years tell generate nearly exactly same list of population gaining states:
Florida: +622,476 R
Texas: +475,252 R
No. Carolina: +211,86 D
Arizona: +182,362 R
So. Carolina: +165,948 R
Tennessee: +146,403 R
Georgia: +128,089 R
Idaho: +88,647 R
Alabama: +65,355 R
Oklahoma: +56,807 R
As mentioned at the beginning, population trends can strongly determine election results. and they do so in two ways – by determining which states get how many seats in the House of Representatives, and votes in the Electoral College. In addition, in most states, the state legisature draws up the specific lines of Congressional districts, and parties are not at all reluctant to use (and sometimes abuse, in a process called gerrymandering) this authority power for partisan advantage.
So if states in which voters choose Republicans as governors, and GOP majorities in the legislatures, are gaining population at the expense of their Democratic-controlled counterparts, that would seem to turn into ever more Republican victories in both Congressional elections and Presidential contests.
Not that that’s guaranteed. For example, the next House and Electoral College reapportionments won’t take place until the 2030 Census results are in, and clearly lots can happen between now and then. In addition, voters who move from Democratic- to Republican-run states sometimes take Democratic leanings with them – as apparently has been the case in states with strong histories of GOP support that have been popular domestic migration destinations that have swung markedly toward the Democrats. Arizona, Georgia, and Virginia are notable examples. At the same time, these domestic migrants could well be moving from Democratic- to Republican-controlled states because they’ve had it with the way that Democrats have been governing. Florida seem to typify this trend.
Finally, as demonstrated vividly by the latest midterm elections, various factors can foster ticket-splitting by voters.
But even if demography isn’t always political destiny, it’s hard to imagine many Democrats answering the question “Are you pleased that Democratic-run states seem to be losing population to GOP-run states?” with a “Yes.”