(What’s Left of) Our Economy: America’s Now Definitely Inflation-Nation

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baseline effect, Biden administration, consumer price index, core inflation, CPI, energy, Federal Reserve, food, inflation, prices, recession, stimulus, Ukraine, Ukraine-Russia war, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s official U.S. report on consumer inflation was so bad that even what ‘s being pitched (for example, to a limited extent by President Biden) as kind of goods news isn’t anything close. As has so often been the case in the last year, one big key is looking at the so-called baseline effect. But the new (May) results for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also highlight a reality that I and many others have been noting – the less-than-meets-the-eye difference between the headline and “core” CPI numbers.

The bad news about inflation is clear enough from the rise in the headline number – which tracks price increases throughout the entire economy. The 0.97 percent monthly increase wasn’t as scary as the 1.24 percent jump between February and March t(he highest since July, 1980’s 1.33 percent), but it was still the biggest since June, 1982’s 1.15 percent price surge.

Similarly, on an annual basis, May’s 8.52 percent overall CPI increase was lower than March’s 8.56 percent. But for all intents and purposes, both months’ results were the worst since December, 1981’s 8.91 percent disaster.

The (modest) ray of light that supposedly shone from the new inflation report came in the core figure – which strips out food and energy prices because they’re supposedly volatile for reasons having nothing to do with the economy’s alleged fundamental vulnerability to inflation.

To be sure, the monthly numbers shouldn’t have been the source of any encouragement. The May 0.63 percent sequential increase in core inflation was the hottest number since last June’s 0.80 percent, and represented the third straight month of acceleration.

Instead, glass-half-full types were pointing to the latest annual core increase. At 6.01 percent, May’s was the lowest since December’s 5.48 percent, and represented the third straight month of deceleration.

But here’s where the glass-half-empty types gain the upper hand. First, as I and – again – many others have observed, although food and energy prices do often move (down as well as up) for reasons largely unrelated to how overheated or not the economy may be. But energy prices in particular profoundly affect the cost of everything Americans make, sell, and buy that needs to be transported. And that means pretty much everything, including services, which typically rely on goods to get to customers. So there’s often an incontrovertible link between headline and core inflation.

Second, both energy and food prices are also often closely related to the economy’s overall levels of demand. And nowadays, they’re bound to keep rising as long as producers can pass them on to their customers. This in turn is the case because the latter can afford to pay more thanks to the unprecedented stimulus funds they received even after the economy was recovering strongly from the 2020 CCP Virus-induced crash,.

Third, there’s that baseline effect. Especially if its monthly rate is slowing, annual core inflation in the six percent neighborhood could be reasonably applauded if the previous year’s rate (the baseline) had been unusually low, or even negative (as it was for most of 2020). But the baseline figure for the latest May annual core inflation rate was May, 2021’s 3.81 percent (according to the latest government figures). That’s nearly twice the rate considered desirable by the nation’s chief official designated inflation-fighter, the Federal Reserve.

None of the ways to reduce this inflation rate way down reasonably quickly is a mystery to anyone influencing U.S. economic policies. Raising interest rates can get rid of a lot of the bloated consumer demand that’s contributed so much to recent price rises. For those emphasizing the Ukraine war’s major role in boosting food and energy prices, there’s the option of pressing for an end to the war sooner rather than later – even if it produces a morally ugly compromise.

But dramatically reducing consumer and business spending power enough to matter inflation-wise could bring on a recession – which the Federal Reserve still apparently believes can be avoided, at least judging from the modest monetary tightening it’s approved so far. And the Biden administration seems wed to letting the shots on ending the conflict to be called by Ukraine — which is so far rejecting the idea of making territorial or any other kinds of significant concessions.

So unless these situations change, the most reasonable conclusion is that inflation will keep raging until soaring prices finally tap consumers out by themselves. As an old adage goes, the likeliest cure for high prices may simply be high prices.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Signs that High U.S. Inflation is Here to Stay

Tags

baseline effect, core PCE, cost of living, energy, Federal Reserve, food, inflation, PCE, personal consumption expenditures index, prices, Ukraine, Ukraine-Russia war, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The new official figures on the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of consumer inflation are a good news/bad news story only if you follow the economy closely.

They amounted to good news for that group because they’ve made the inflation picture clearer than it’s been since the economy began recovering from the deep spring, 2020 downturn generated by the arrival in force of the CCP Virus and all the mandated and voluntary curbs on individual and business behavior it produced. And it’s noteworthy that the group includes the Fed, which bears the federal government’s prime responsibility for keeping inflation under control.

Specifically, today’s data represent annual inflation figures (the ones that attract the most attention because they measure price changes over a reasonable period of time) that finally aren’t being substantially distorted by baseline effects. That is, the multi-decade highs they’ve hit no longer stem significantly from the fact that the previous pandemic-y year’s inflation levels were so abnormally low.

But the new results for the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were bad news for everyone else. For they still did show near-multi-decade highs, and the baseline boost has now been in essence replaced by an energy price boost largely created by Ukraine war-related disruptions that aren’t likely to end any time soon.

It’s true that the U.S. government and most students of the economy distinguish between the inflation rates with and without energy prices, since the latter, along with food prices, are seen as prone to shocks that have nothing to do with the economy’s fundamental vulnerability to inflation. But it’s also true that this distinction can get awfully artificial awfully quickly because energy is used so prominently to turn out practically every good and service that Americans buy. So if energy prices remain strongly on the rise, prices everywhere else are bound to feel the effects. Or at least they’re bound to feel the effects until and unless businesses figure out how to offset their higher energy costs with greater efficiencies.

The first clues that energy prices are now unquestionably major inflation drivers comes from the month-to-month figures for overall PCE percentage change – which do include food and energy prices – starting with January, 2021.

Jan.             0.3

Feb.            0.3

March         0.6

April           0.6

May            0.5

June            0.5

July            0.4

Aug.           0.4

Sept.           0.3

Oct.            0.6 

Nov.           0.6

Dec.           0.5

Jan.            0.5

Feb.           0.6 revised to 0.5

March       0.9

As is clear, overall monthly PCE really took off in March – reaching its highest level during this period after several months of virtually identical monthly increases (which themselves jumped to a new level starting in October).

Keep in mind that these numbers don’t show that prices stopped rising during that period. What they show is that they weren’t rising at ever faster rates, which matters because one of the biggest fears harbored about inflation concerns its tendency to feed on itself and spiral out of control.

When food and energy prices are stripped out, and so-called core inflation can be seen, the monthly trend since January, 2021, is significantly different. Since last October, weakening momentum (though not actually falling prices) is the story here. And the sequential percentage increases in absolute terms have been lower recently. That’s why it’s ever more obvious that recent inflation is due mainly to those two supposedly volatile food and energy sectors. Here are these core PCE rises:

Jan.             0.2

Feb.            0.1

March        0.4

April          0.6

May           0.6

June           0.5

July            0.3

Aug.           0.3

Sept.           0.2

Oct.            0.5

Nov.           0.5

Dec.           0.5

Jan.            0.5

Feb.           0.4 revised to 0.3

March        0.3

As always, the baseline effect emerges upon examining the annual rates of change in inflation. Here they are for overall inflation since January, 2021:

Jan.            1.4

Feb.           1.6

March        2.5

April          3.6

May           4.0

June           4.0

July            4.1

Aug.           4.2

Sept.           4.4

Oct.            5.1

Nov.           5.6

Dec.           5.8

Jan.  21-22           6..0

Feb. 21-22           6.4 revised to 6.3

March 21-22        6.6

Again, the latest March figure is the highest in the series, and again, the pace quickened dramatically starting last October.

The annual inflation rates for the previous year, though, demonstrate a big fade in the baseline effect starting in March. Here they are in percentage terms.  

Jan.             1.8

Feb.            1.8

March        1.3

April          0.6

May          0.5

June          0.9

July          1.0

Aug.         1.2

Sept.         1.4

Oct.          1.2

Nov.         1.2

Dec.         1.3

Jan. 20-21           1.4

Feb. 20-21          1.6

March 20-21       2.5

Think of it this way: For many years before the CCP Virus began distorting the economy the Federal Reserve struggled to push yearly inflation up to two percent and keep it there for decent intervals. The central bank reasoned (correctly, IMO), that when prices rise too slowly, that can threaten deflation – a period prices that are falling in absolute terms. And when that happens, consumers in particular keep putting off purchases in hopes of finding better bargains in the future, demand for goods and services keeps dropping, production eventually follows suit, and a recession can ensue that’s not only deep but very difficult to escape as the new sets of expectations create their own downward spiral.

But as shown above, for all of (pandemic-y) 2020, annual inflation rates were well below two percent, and they stayed there till March, 2021. So the latest annual overall PCE figure of 6.9 percent (for this March) is coming off an overall PCE figure for last March that was already pretty strong. And the upcoming number for April, 2022 will represent the change from an April, 2021 figure that was much stronger – 3.6 percent. Unless that next annual overall inflation rate comes down considerably, the case that overall price increases have entered a new, more worrisome phase, will look awfully convincing.

The baseline fade is less pronounced so far for core PCE. Here are the annual percentage change figures starting again with January, 2021:

Jan.            1.5

Feb.           1.5

March        2.0

April          3.1

May           3.5

June           3.5

July            3.6

Aug.          3.6

Sept.          3.7

Oct.           4.2

Nov.          4.7

Dec.          4.9

Jan. 21-22             5.2

Feb. 21-22            5.4 revised to 5.3

March 21-22        5.2

Where the month-to-month figures showed weakened recent momentum as well as lower prices, these show stalled recent momentum – which isn’t greatly different given inflation’s above-noted tendency to keep speeding up.

And here are the annual core figures for the preceding year

Jan.             1.7

Feb.            1.9

March        1.7

April          0.9

May           1.0

June           1.1

July           1.3

Aug.          1.4

Sept.          1.5

Oct.           1.4

Nov.          1.3

Dec.          1.4

Jan. 20-21             1.4

Feb. 20-21            1.5

March 20-21         2.0

Judging by that two percent Fed target, these 2020 and early 2021 annual core inflation rates were decidedly feeble, and only hit two percent in March, 2021. So a baseline effect arguably remains in place here, and as I wrote previously, and probably won’t end until next month – because the April, 2021 annual core inflation rate breached the Fed target (and then some), rising all the way to 3.1 percent.

And as with overall PCE inflation, if that next core result (for April) doesn’t fall significantly, this type of price increase will start looking troublingly elevated for reasons related to current, not past, economic trends and developments. Further, even though the absolute core PCE rate is, as noted, lower than the over PCE rate, it’s still near multi-decade highs and, again, it’s sure to be increasingly affected by lofty energy prices for the foreseeable future.

Wall Street Journal columnist Greg Ip wrote Wednesday that the Ukraine war and its fallout could be “a prelude to an era in which geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies and natural disasters repeatedly stress the world’s supply networks. Central banks, which spent the last decade fighting off deflationary headwinds, might spend the next battling inflationary headwinds.”

Today’s PCE data look like they support that call to me. 

Following Up: Podcasts of National and New York City Radio Interviews Now On-Line

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American politics, Bernie Sanders, Biden, Biden administration, China, decoupling, Democrats, Donald Trump, election 2022, election 2024, Following Up, Frank Morano, inflation, Market Wrap with Moe Ansari, midterms 2022, Moe Ansari, prices, recession, Republicans, Ron DeSantis, tariffs, The Other Side of Midnight, trade policy, trade war, Ukraine, Ukraine-Russia war

I’m pleased to announce that the podcasts are now on-line of my two radio interviews yesterday (and one technically this morning) on a wide range of foreign policy, economic, and U.S. political topics.

Click here to listen to my appearance on Moe Ansari’s nationally syndicated “Market Wrap” show, where we did a deep dive into the questions of whether or not President Biden’s thinking seriously of cutting some of the Trump tariffs on imports from China, and the likelihood and wisdom of America pulling off any kind of significant divorce from the Chinese economy. The segment starts at about the 21:40 mark.

At this link, you can access my conversation with host Frank Morano on his late-night WABC-AM (New York City) show “The Other Side of Midnight.” It covered the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, the outlook for America’s inflation-ridden economy, the chances that the Ukraine war goes nuclear, and the odds of (figurative) earthquakes down the road for American presidential politics – for starters!

In addition, click here for the second half of my interview on the U.S. government-run Voice of America – which zeroes in on Ukraine war-related global economic disruptions. (Yes, the segment was pre-my latest haircut!)

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: No More Baseline Excuses for U.S. Inflation

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baseline effect, CCP Virus, China, consumer price index, core inflation, coronavirus, cost of living, COVID 19, CPI, energy, Federal Reserve, food, inflation, lockdowns, prices, sanctions, supply chains, Ukraine-Russia war, Zero Covid, {What's Left of) Our Economy

As if the new monthly and yearly numbers for March per se weren’t high enough, they were far from the only bad news, or even the worst news, in today’s Labor Department report on its inflation measure – the Consumer Price Index or CPI.

The new data also made clear that the baseline effect is definitely gone — especially for the overall CPI — which means that prices in America are no longer rising at annual rates not seen in decades partly because they were rising so slowly in the pandemic period 2020 and very early 2021.

Now their year-on-year jumps are resulting from their more recent and current momentum. And with much more in the way of surging food and energy costs coming in the next few months due to Ukraine war-related global supply disruptions and anti-Russia sanctions, that means Americans will be contending with sky-high and even hotter inflation rates for the foreseeable future.

The rise and fall of the baseline effect becomes clearest from looking at the annual overall inflation rates by month starting in January, 2021, and comparing them with their counterparts from the year before. (Starting with the January, 2022 figures, the baseline year of course is 2021.)

The admittedly complicated table below shows (from left to right) the originally reported annual inflation figures by month for this period, the revised results, and the same annual figure for that month from the previous, CCP Virus-ridden year. Where only one inflation rate is presented, the original figure has remained unrevised:

Jan. 2021:       from 1.37 percent to 1.36       from 2.47 percent to 2.46

Feb: 2021:      1.68 percent                            from 2.31 percent to 2.32

March 2021:  from 2.64 percent to 2.66        from 1.51 percent to 1.53

April 2021:    from 4.16 percent to 4.15        from 0.34 percent to 0.36

May 2021:     from 4.93 percent to 4.94        from 0.22 percent to 0.24

June 2021:     from 5.32 percent to 5.34        0.73 percent

July 2021:      5.28 percent                            from 1.05 percent to 1.03

Aug 2021:     from 5.20 percent to 5.21        from 1.32 percent to 1.33

Sept 2021:     from 5.38 percent to 5.39        from 1.41 percent to 1.40

Oct 2021:      6.24 percent                             from 1.19 percent to 1.18

Nov 2021:     from 6.88 percent to 6.83        1.14 percent

Dec 2021:     from 7.12 percent to 7.10        from 1.31 percent to 1.28

Jan 2022:      7.53 percent                             from 1.37 percent to 1.36

Feb 2022:     7.91 percent                             1.68 percent

March 2022: 8.56 percent                            from 2.64 percent to 2.66

The baseline effect was strongest between March and July, 2021. That year, the annual overall (or “headline”) inflation rate went from 2.64 percent to 5.28 percent. But the annual rates for those months the year before dropped from 1.51 percent to 1.05 percent. Given that the Federal Reserve’s target rate for annual inflation (which helps determine how loose or tight it will keep the supply of credit to the economy and therefore – roughly – how much growth and job creation will be generated) is two percent (albeit for the slightly different gauge it uses), you can see how weakly prices were rising in deeply recessionary spring of 2020, and how those levels distorted the annual rates for the following year, as the economy returned — choppily — to normal growth. 

But a major baseline effect also shows up between September, 2021 at least through January, 2022. During that period, the annual inflation rates rose fom 5.38 percent to 7.53 percent. Yet their counterparts from the year before dipped from a still low 1.40 percent to 1.36 percent.

Starting in February, 2022, though, signs of a baseline fade began appearing, as the that month’s annual rate increased considerably over the January figure and its 2021 predecessor worsened to its highest level since the previous February – not so coincidentally, just before the virus’ arrival in force.

And last month’s big jump in the annual inflation rate came off a March, 2021 result that was significantly higher than the Fed target, and that also pierced that level for the first time since February, 2020.

The core inflation rate, which strips out food and energy because their price levels are supposed to be unusually volatile for reasons having little to do with the economy’s underlying vulnerability to inflation, shows a similar pattern, but with a recent wrinkle. The table below follows the same format as that for overall inflation, although as you’ll see, the absolute levels generally are somewhat lower.

Jan 2021:        from 1.40 percent to 1.39        2.26 percent

Feb 2021:       from 1.28 percent to 1.29        from 2.36 percent to 2.38

March 2021:  from 1.65 percent to 1.66        from 2.10 percent to 2.12

April 2021     from 2.96 percent to 2.97        from 1.44 percent to 1.46

May 2021:     from 3.80 percent to 3.81        from 1.24 percent to 1.25

June 2021:     4.45 percent                             1.20 percent

July 2021:      from 4.24 percent to 4.20        from 1.56 percent to 1.54

Aug 2021:      from 3.98 percent to 3.96        from 1.70 percent to 1.71

Sept 2021:      4.04 percent                            1.72 percent

Oct 2021:       from 4.58 percent to 4.59       1.63 percent

Nov 2021:      from 4.96 percent to 4.95       from 1.63 percent to 1.64

Dec 2021:      from 5.49 percent to 5.48       from 1.61 percent to 1.60

Jan 2022:       6.04 percent                            1.39 percent

Feb 2022:      6.42 percent                            1.29 percent

March 2022:  6.44 percent                            1.66 percent

Again, from March through July, 2021, the annual core inflation rate increased from 1.66 percent to 4.20 percent. But the comparable figures for the year before decreased for 2.12 percent to 1.54 percent. Also as with the headline inflation numbers, the baseline effect appeared later in the year, too. But it’s lasted longer. From September, 2021 through February, 2022, the yearly core inflation rate accelerated from 4.04 percent to 6.42 percent. For the same period from the year before, however, it sank from 1.72 percent to 1.29 percent.

Yet the new March, 2022 data indicate that the core’s baseline effects are numbered, as annual inflation inched up to a still very high 6.42 percent, but March, 2021’s version rose at a much faster clip – from that 1.29 percent to 1.66 percent. Yes, that’s still well below the Fed target, but the increase was the biggest in relative terms since July, and April, 2021’s annual rate had zoomed up to 2.96 percent – nearly doubling.

A glass-half-full result from the new CPI report came from the monthly change in the core figure. Not only did it tumble all the way from 0.51 percent in February to 0.32 percent. But the sequential decrease was the second straight, and the biggest in relative terms during the entire pandemic period and the level was the lowest for a single month since August’s 0.24 percent.

Unfortunately, Ukraine-related disruptions seem likely to reverse this trend, and this regression could well be reinforced by supply chain snags generated by China’s decision to lock down several enormous cities and industrial centers by responding to a recent rebound in CCP Virus cases with a return to its Zero Covid policies.

Moreover, since energy prices in particular eventually feed into price levels for every U.S. economic actor that uses energy, the headline-core inflation distinction will surely look more academic than ever in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, the red hot monthly headline CPI increase of 1.24 percent in March was the biggest such jump since 2005, and a huge speed-up over February’s 0.80 percent. For me, the big takeaway is that the U.S. economy now clearly faces a danger not only of the Federal Reserve creating a recession by tightening monetary policy enough to bring inflation under the control, but of such tightening producing that recession while still leaving inflation far too high.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Why So Few are Impressed with the “Biden Boom”

Tags

Associated Press, Biden, Bill Clinton, conjunctions, grammar, incomes, inflation, living standards, Mainstream Media, polls, prices, stimulus, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

What a difference a coordinating conjunction can make!

You remember coordinating conjunctions, don’t you? They’re the little words that “join two verbs, two nouns, two adjectives, two phrases, or two independent clauses.” In English, for those of you who cut or snoozed in your “parts of speech” classes, they’re “for,” “and,” “nor,” “but,” “or”, “yet”, and “so”.  (Here‘s the source.)

I bring them up because an Associated Press (AP) article today just illustrated how important they can be, and in the process, added to the burgeoning mass of spoken and published material lately making clear how completely many of the usual suspects in America’s chattering classes have forgotten the fundamental purpose of the national economy and economic policymaking.

It isn’t to generate more growth, more jobs, more spending, or any other specific great performance metrics. (See, e.g., here and here.) Instead, the fundamental purpose is to help improve people’s lives. Better numbers on the above fronts and others obviously can help achieve this goal. But they’re no guarantee.

That’s why the header on the piece used the wrong conjunction. It shouldn’t be “AP-NORC Poll: Income is up, but Americans focus on inflation” – which at least to me connoted, “Why are those Americans accentuating the negative?”

Much better would have been “AP-NORC Poll: Income is up, and Americans focus on inflation.” Because the results of the survey itself are sending the exact same message as the most important figures from an individual or family perspective: Prices this year have been rising faster than wages, which means that despite all the encouraging data nowadays, the typical American is falling behind economically, not getting ahead.

To cite just a few examples from the poll:

>”Two-thirds [of respondents] say their household costs have risen since the pandemic, compared with only about a quarter who say their incomes have increased….Half say their incomes have stayed the same. Roughly a quarter report that their incomes have dropped.”

>”Most people say the sharply higher prices for goods and services in recent months have had at least a minor effect on their financial lives, including about 4 in 10 who say the hit has been substantial. The poll confirms that the burden has been especially hard on low-income households.”

>”U.S. households, on average, are earning higher incomes than they did before the pandemic. Wages and salaries grew 4.2% in September compared with a year earlier, the largest annual increase in two decades of records.”  But as RealityChek readers know, the cost of living in September rose by 4.4 percent on year according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, and by 5.4 percent according to the more widely followed Consumer Price Index.

>Similarly, government stimulus checks and other supports “combined with higher paychecks, lifted Americans’ overall household incomes by 5.9% in October compared with a year earlier. Yet inflation jumped to 6.2% that month, the highest reading in three decades, negating the income gain.” (And then some!)

When he first ran for the presidency in 1992, Bill Clinton touted the importance of “Putting People First” as the lodestar for economic policy. As the AP article indicates, that’s advice that urgently needs learning or re-learning by the numerous reporters and commentators puzzled by why Americans are less impressed with the current supposed economic boom than with their falling living standards.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The Case for Transitory U.S. Inflation Just Weakened

Tags

CCP Virus, consumer price index, core inflation, coronavirus, COVID 19, CPI, inflation, Labor Department, lockdowns, logistics, prices, reopening, stay-at-home, supply chain, transportation, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

At first glance, this morning’s U.S. inflation report almost had me throwing in the towel in the debate between those (like me) believing that recent price hikes will peter out sooner rather than later, and those believing that they’ll be much longer lasting.

My pessimism stemmed from the indisputable facts not only that by all the major month-on-month and year-on-year measures, the numbers for October were terrible in their own right. They also showed inflation gaining momentum. My case for optimism focused on a loss of momentum I’d identified through September.

Today’s statistics definitely shifted the weight of the evidence in favor of the pessimists. But I still see one possible reason for continued optimism – though the accent is on “possible.” Specifically, the year-on-year numbers may again be partly functions of unusually weak inflation last year, when the CCP Virus pandemic was undermining the economy even more than this year.

Let’s review the main monthly and annual numbers for this calendar year first, though, because it’s worth seeing just how bad they are and how much inflation momentum they reveal. First, the monthly results for overall inflation (as measured by the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, or CPI). As you can see, whereas sequential price increases between July and September had been coming in considerably lower than their June peak, in October they shot up past the June peak – to the highest level since June, 2008 (1.05 percent).

Dec-Jan:                          0.26 percent

Jan-Feb:                          0.35 percent

Feb-March:                     0.62 percent

March-April:                  0.77 percent

April-May:                     0.64 percent

May-June:                      0.90 percent

June-July:                      0.47 percent

July-Aug:                      0.27 percent

Aug-Sept:                      0.41 percent

Sept.-Oct:                      0.94 percent

The recent acceleration in the monthly changes in so-called core inflation was even stronger. (This gauge strips out food and energy prices, because however vital these commodities are to daily life, their price levels can be influenced by developments like bad weather or the decisions of the OPEC oil-producing countries’ cartel that supposedly say little about how fundamentally inflation-prone the economy is or isn’t.)

As of October, core inflation is still well below its peak in early spring. But it’s much highe than it’s been in the last three months:

Dec-Jan:                      0.03 percent

Jan-Feb:                       0.10 percent

Feb-March:                  0.34 percent

March-April:                0.92 percent

April-May:                   0.74 percent

May-June:                    0.88 percent

June-July:                     0.33 percent

July-Aug:                     0.10 percent

Aug-Sept:                    0.24 percent

Sept-Oct:                     0.60 percent

The case for acceleration is at least as strong for annual overall inflation. As I wrote last month, the rate of change had been more or less plateauing since May, but clearly shifted into a higher gear in October. Indeed, last month’s yearly increase was the biggest since December, 1990’s increase of 6.25 percent.

Jan:                             1.37 percent

Feb:                            1.68 percent

March:                       2.64 percent

April:                         4.15 percent

May:                          4.93 percent

June:                          5.32 percent

July:                           5.28 percent

Aug:                           5.20 percent

Sept:                          5.38 percent

Oct:                            6.24 percent

The same speed-up can be seen in the annual core inflation figures. And they’ve just hit their highest level since September, 1991 (4.60 percent).

Jan:                            1.40 percent

Feb:                            1.28 percent

March:                       1.65 percent

April:                         2.96 percent

May:                          3.80 percent

June:                          4.45 percent

July:                          4.24 percent

Aug:                          3.98 percent

Sept:                          4.04 percent

Oct:                           4.58 percent

But now the data providing (some) cause for optimism. They cover the annual inflation figures for 2019-2020, and the reason for examining them is that if inflation that year was unusually low, then whatever price hikes are recorded the year after will be unusually – and to some extent, artificially – high.

As clear from the below numbers, those 2019-2020 inflation rates became rock bottom as the CCP Virus began spreading, the economy began locking down, and consumers turned super cautious. From June through September, they rose again as the reopening after that first virus wave proceeded. But numbers like those, with one handles, hadn’t been seen recently since the summer of 2017, and even these were all well above 1.50 percent.

But October saw a sizable dropoff – from 1.41 percent to 1.19 percent.

Jan:                            2.47 percent

Feb:                            2.31 percent

March:                       1.51 percent

April:                         0.34 percent

May:                          0.22 percent

June:                          0.73 percent

July:                          1.05 percent

Aug:                          1.32 percent

Sept:                         1.41 percent

Oct:                          1.19 percent

And possibly as interesting: The November, 2019-2020 overall inflation rate (below) was even lower. December’s was higher, but not by much. So I’d argue that caution is warranted in reading too much into the latest big annual CPI increase.

Nov:                          1.14 percent

Dec:                           1.30 percent

The story told by the core inflation data is similar. Annual price hikes below two percent didn’t reappear until March, 2018 and stayed above that level until the depths of last year’s short but steep pandemic-induced recession. Following that first wave and its dramatic impact, annual 2019-2020 core inflation rates came back, but never approached two percent. And in October, fell back to 1.63 percent.

Jan:                           2.26 percent

Feb:                          2.36 percent

March:                      2.10 percent

April:                        1.44 percent

May:                         1.24 percent

June:                         1.20 percent

July:                         1.56 percent

Aug:                         1.70 percent

Sept:                        1.72 percent

Oct:                          1.63 percent

How did they perform through the end of 2020? Cumulatively, they drifted down further.

Nov: 1.65 percent

Dec: 1.61 percent

In this vein, it will be especially interesting to see how the annual 2021-2022 statistics look when they begin coming in early next year. My bet right now is that they’ll decline simply because this particular CCP Virus effect will be wearing off. And hopefully, progress toward untangling knotted global supply chains will help moderate the monthly numbers. (Until then, though, the holiday shopping season could well keep propping them up.) But if those logistics and transport troubles remain serious, all bets come off. Ditto for energy prices if they stay up.

None of this is to minimize the pain that recent and current inflation have inflicted on Americans, and especially lower income Americans. And the October results suggest that even if these price hikes prove to be a transitory development due largely to one-off CCP Virus-related disruptions, there’s no doubt that the definition of “transitory” keeps expanding chronologically – and possibly making this debate look pretty moot.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Inflation Signals Turned (More) Mixed in September

Tags

consumer price index, core inflation, CPI, Federal Reserve, inflation, Labor Department, prices, transitory, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s report from the Labor Department on the September inflation figures contained something for everyone, and unfortunately, that’s not great news for anyone trying to figure out whether current price rises are going to continue worrisomely for the foreseeable future, or whether they’re “transitory.” That’s the term that’s been used by Federal Reserve officials in particular to describe their expectations that these trends result mainly from pandemic-related supply chain and other economic disruptions, and will return to normal territory once the CCP Virus is clearly under control.

The inflation pessimists can point to accelerations in all four main measures of inflation reported today. On a monthly basis, the overall consumer price index (CPI), rose by 0.41 percent on month in September versus 0.27 percent in August, and the so-called core measure – which strips out unusually volatile food and energy prices, increased sequentially by 0.24 percent, versus August’s 0.10 percent

The year-on-year figures, which are more closely followed because they cover a longer time span and therefore are less vulnerable to inevitable random fluctuations – told much the same story. The overall CPI was up 5.38 percent in September as opposed to 5.20 percent in August, and the core climbed from 3.98 percent to 4.04 percent.

Many transitory-istas (who include yours truly) can and no doubt will take some comfort from the lower core figures. But pessimists will rightly observe that, however subject to wide swings, food and energy are vital to all the rest of the economy, and if their prices are on a rapidly moving escalator up, the effects are sure to spread in numerous other sectors.

I’m more impressed by the still-waning momentum in both inflation gauges. It’s evident from the monthly changes in the overall CPI so far this year. Despite the sequential speed up this month, these price increases are still nowhere their spring peaks. In fact, they’re still down on net since July.

Dec-Jan:                           0.26 percent

Jan-Feb:                           0.35 percent

Feb-March:                      0.62 percent

March-April:                   0.77 percent

April-May:                      0.64 percent

May-June:                       0.90 percent

June-July:                        0.47 percent

July-Aug:                        0.27 percent

Aug-Sept:                        0.41 percent

The monthly core changes look very similar:

Dec-Jan:                         0.03 percent

Jan-Feb:                         0.10 percent

Feb-March:                    0.34 percent

March-April:                  0.92 percent

April-May:                     0.74 percent

May-June:                      0.88 percent

June-July:                      0.33 percent

July-Aug:                      0.10 percent

Aug-Sept.                      0.24 percent

The case for acceleration looks stronger based on the year-on-year overall CPI changes, although a plateauing since May can be seen as well.

Jan:                                1.37 percent

Feb:                               1.68 percent

March:                           2.64 percent

April:                             4.15 percent

May:                              4.93 percent

June:                              5.32 percent

July:                               5.28 percent

Aug:                               5.20 percent

Sept:                               5.38 percent

Ditto for the annual core inflation increases:

Jan:                                1.40 percent

Feb:                               1.28 percent

March:                          1.65 percent

April:                            2.96 percent

May:                             3.80 percent

June:                             4.45 percent

July:                              4.24 percent

Aug:                              3.98 percent

Sept:                              4.04 percent

And it’s still true that these strong overall CPI and core inflation results stem partly from abnormally weak inflation in 2020, when the virus dramatically depressed inflation according to both measures. Here are the 2019-20 figures for the overall CPI:

Jan:                               2.47 percent

Feb:                              2.31 percent

March:                         1.51 percent

April:                           0.34 percent

May:                            0.22 percent

June:                            0.73 percent

July:                            1.05 percent

Aug:                            1.32 percent

Sept:                            1.41 percent

And here they are for the core:

Jan:                              2.26 percent

Feb:                             2.36 percent

March:                         2.10 percent

April:                          1.44 percent

May:                           1.24 percent

June:                           1.20 percent

July:                           1.56 percent

Aug:                           1.70 percent

Sept:                           1.72 percent

All the same (and I realize I’m starting to sound like the proverbial two-handed economist), the pessimists can point out that the 2020 annual inflation rates began rebounding once again. And because these “comps” have become harder to beat, the case for troubling, lasting inflation has become more compelling.

I’d agree with the “more compelling” conclusion. But to me, that still doesn’t translate into “particularly compelling.” Until it does, I’ll stay in the transitory camp – keeping in mind all the while that, as noted last month, the likely timeframe for the return to normality keeps getting stretched out.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Now That It’s a Real China Trade War….

Tags

Apple Inc., Bob Woodward, China, consumer goods, Fear, foreign direct investment, Gary Cohn, intermediate goods, Jobs, manufacturing, national security, prices, producer goods, supply chains, tariffs, technology, Trade, trade war, Trump, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Now it’s a “trade war.” By slapping tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China, President Trump has now placed in harm’s way roughly half of all last year’s American purchases of goods from the PRC. So I’ll stop using quotes around the phrase, at least when it comes to China developments. And here are some points that deserve special emphasis:

>For many of the same reasons that the new tariffs on China or on steel haven’t shown any sign of increasing prices for the intermediate (or producer) goods that businesses buy (the focus of previous tranches, and of the Trump metals tariffs), this larger set of tariffs on consumer goods are unlikely to cause much pain for American shoppers.

As I’ve written, if businesses don’t believe that their markets can currently bear price increases, what it is about the tariffs that will change their assessment – especially in the next few weeks and even months? Put differently, if they’re likely to raise prices then, why haven’t they done so already? Are they really in the habit of giving their customers unsolicited and unnecessary price breaks at the expense of their revenues and profits?

In this vein, President Trump’s decision to exempt some prominent Apple products from the new levies suggests he’s been snookered by the tech giant – for fear of spoiling too many Americans’ Christmases. In fact, here’s an article that makes clear that Apple’s pricing policies have virtually nothing to do with the cost of the components it uses.

Of course, it seems logical to suppose that if consumer products companies won’t be raising their prices much because of the tariffs, then the supplier of those products – China – won’t be harmed either, because sales levels will remain generally unchanged. But actually, the tariffs will accomplish a somewhat related but highly worthwhile goal (that is, if you believe that China’s predatory trade practices pose a major problem for the American economy): They’ll make China a higher cost, and therefore less competitive supplier of these products.

As a result, the American companies they depend on will have further incentives to shift supply chains outside China. For most consumer goods, which are labor intensive, nearly all of the beneficiaries won’t be domestic U.S. competitors and their workers. Instead, they’ll be other very low-cost countries with natural comparative advantages in these industries.

But this result will definitely weaken employment in China and possibly the PRC’s politics – whose stability has long depended on the ability of China’s leaders to deliver rising living standards for a critical mass of China’s population. Both developments would unmistakably serve U.S. interests.

Electronics – both consumer and “higher tech” – look like a conspicuous exception, due to the sheer size of China’s industrial complex in these sectors and the scale advantages alone that they create. Few acceptable alternative production sites will be available for many years. Nonetheless, there’s much more potential for production and job shifts back to the United States for the large number of non-electronics advanced manufacturing industries where domestic American producers would boast considerable competitive advantage – especially if they didn’t need to worry about predatory Chinese competition.

>The President’s decision to limit the tariff on the new group of targeted Chinese products to ten percent (at least initially) strongly indicates his awareness that his trade policies could well provoke even greater opposition than has been expressed already. In other words, despite his professed confidence, trade wars aren’t always “easy to win.” But he needs to do much more to generate and even preserve needed public support. Specifically, Mr. Trump needs to make an address – or even a series of addresses – from the Oval Office, with all its trappings, explaining why the stakes of America’s economic conflict with China are so high, and therefore why some domestic sacrifice will be absolutely essential.

The President has spoken about the need for tariffs at numerous rallies and brief sessions with reporters. But his main points – that the Chinese have been ripping Americans off for decades, that basic fairness must be restored, and even that success will mean investment and jobs flooding back to U.S. shores – are sadly inadequate to the task. As widely observed, at risk from continued China policy failures are the nation’s security and future as global technology leader – which will undercut future U.S. prosperity in ways that dwarf even the employment and production damage suffered so far.

That such an address hasn’t been made – and by such an effective communicator – could be a sign that an overarching China strategy still hasn’t been developed. And although Mr. Trump’s initiatives so far show every sign of throwing Beijing off balance, they’ll fall way short of their (needed) potential unless carried out as part of an integrated strategy.

>My own candidate for such a strategy – economic disengagement from China. The main reasons?

First, the clearest lesson from decades of generally unfettered U.S.-China trade and investment is that the two countries’ economic systems are simply too incompatible to permit mutually beneficial commerce.

Second, as I’ve written, even full Chinese agreement to most American demands can’t be adequately verified by Washington. China’s manufacturing complex is too vast, and its government operates too secretively. In this vein, in particular, subsidies are way too fungible for outsiders to track.

Third, most forms of continued economic engagement with China will inevitably continue to strengthen directly or indirectly China’s ability to challenge U.S. national security interests. In macroeconomic terms, continuing huge Chinese trade surpluses with the United States will keep ensuring that Beijing will have the resources needed to continue its rapid military buildup while satisfying civilian needs satisfactorily. In more sector-specific terms, continued American manufacturing investment will continue bolstering China’s ability to turn out the advanced weapons and other defense-related goods to enable Beijing to narrow further America’s remaining military and underlying technology edges. (That’s one reason why the administration’s stated objective of making China an easier environment for American business is so dubious.)

The Trump administration has made good disengagement progress on the inbound foreign direct investment front. But even here, much more can and should be done. For how can any acquisitions of American businesses or other assets by a non-market economy like China reinforce the free market basis of the U.S. economy? Indeed, how can such transactions help but distort and ultimately weaken American capitalism?

But let’s end on an optimistic note: Assuming Fear, Bob Woodward’s new tell-all book about the Trump administration, is accurate, there’s no more Gary Cohn running around the White House taking advantage of his position as head of the National Economic Council to snatch needed proposals like these from the President’s desk.

Following Up: Why Auto Tariff Alarmism Just Got (Even) Sillier

Tags

automotive, autos, CNBC, consumers, Following Up, prices, Rick Santelli, tariffs, Trade, Trump

The claims just keep coming that President Trump’s threatened auto tariffs will cause vehicle makers to boost the prices paid by American consumers per vehicle by thousands of dollars. So does the evidence that such claims are “horse hockey” – to quote a memorable euphemism for “baloney” recently used by CNBC’s Rick Santelli (in a similar context).

As I noted in a post last Wednesday, this alarmism flies in the face of recent U.S. auto sales trends – which recently have been weak enough to force the companies to offer deep discounts to prop up their numbers and try to keep market share. As I’ve also noted, those trafficking in price hike fears either know nothing about business, or are trying to fool their audiences. For although producers’ costs of course influence consumer prices, the latter’s main determinant is what the former believe the market will bear. To believe otherwise is to believe that companies aren’t striving to maximize revenues and profits wherever and whenever possible. And by extension, it’s logically to believe that, although auto makers don’t believe their customers will pay those higher prices today, they’ll change their tunes as soon as vehicles become much more expensive.

Which brings us to the newest evidence – yesterday’s data on U.S. auto sales for June and for the first half of the year. Overall, they were up, and up nicely (especially for last month, when they rose year-on-year). But as always, you need to look under the hood. (Couldn’t resist!) And that’s when you encounter vital contrarian details provided by analysts at Cox Automotive.

According to the Associated Press’ coverage of their conclusions, the increases were driven by “low-profit sales to fleet buyers such as rental car companies, and retail sales to individual buyers were propped up by rising incentives such as rebates and subsidized leases.”

Indeed, said observed one Cox consultant, “Retail sales have been flat, and even those sales have been supported by incentives being up 6 percent.”

Does this sound like a market where big, sudden price increases have much chance of sticking? If you agree, I’d be happy to show you a bridge in Brooklyn that’s available for a song. And if you’re parroting this line, chances are you’d be a great used car salesman.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Trump Tariffs to Raise Washing Machine Prices? Good Luck with That!

Tags

consumer price index, consumers, CPI, inflation, PCE, personal consumption expenditures index, prices, South Korea, tariffs, Trade, Trump, washing machines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

It’s painfully clear that none of the journalists and offshoring lobby-funded think tank hacks who have parroted the threats by South Korean washing machine makers to raise their U.S. retail prices to offset tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last month has shopped for a washing machine lately. Nor have they looked at the price data for home appliances in America. If they had, they’d recognize that the South Koreans seem to be blowing so much smoke. For no one could possibly look at the U.S. washing machine market either first hand or statistically and conclude that any producer thinks they have much pricing power.

The first-hand evidence? Just check the ads in your daily newspaper. Or take a look at this post from about a year ago offering tips to appliance shoppers. For example, consumers are told that: 

>in-store sales people and on-line shopping sites will often sell a machine for less (and “sometimes a lot less” than the advertised price;

>”If you’ve had your eye on an appliance but wish it were just a smidgen cheaper, try putting it in your cart. Then walk away (so to speak). If you leave it there for a few days, a retailer might send you a coupon to entice you to close the deal.”

>”Never be afraid to ask salespeople, cashiers, and store managers if they can do a little better on the price. In fact, Consumer Reports says that nearly all people who haggle over appliances are successful at least once—and save an average $200.”

The statistics? They mock even more cruelly the idea that the tariffs will drive washing machine prices up. Let’s start off with the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index. And as the broadest gauge, let’s use the “core” PCE numbers, which strip out food and energy prices because they’re considered volatile for reasons having little to do with the main determinants of price changes for the rest of the economy.

According to the Commerce Department, which tracks this data, between 2009 (when the current U.S. economic recovery began) and 2016 (the latest figures), core PCE rose by a cumulative 13.10 percent. But for durable goods (the category containing home appliances), prices during this period fell by 13.54 percent. And although there are no statistics for washing machines specifically, prices for “household appliances” plunged by 18 percent over those seven years. These trends don’t exactly scream “Pricing power!”

Moreover, let’s look at what happened with appliances prices after 2013, when the Obama administration imposed tariffs on subsidized and dumped South Korean-brand washing machines from South Korea and Mexico. After having fallen by 2.39 percent the previous year, they fell even faster – by 5.61 percent, 4.96 percent, and 5.03 percent annually over the next three years. And in each instance, the rate of decrease for appliance prices was much steeper than for prices for other durable goods.

The Labor Department’s different sets of inflation data do extend through 2017. They’re grouped under the heading “consumer price index” (CPI), and show that prices for major appliances decreased that year by 2.57 percent, and for appliances generally by 1.03 percent. That year, the CPI for urban consumers less food, energy, and shelter rose by 0.72 percent.  And according to this CPI, appliance and major appliance prices have been falling throughout the current recovery, too.  

There’s a first time for everything, and so it’s possible that Korean washing machine manufacturers really will carry through on their price increase vows. And of course, since it’s their business, they may know something I don’t. But the first-hand evidence and the data strongly indicate that the tariffs will simply require them to charge closer to fair market value for their goods, and that until much stronger pricing pressures emerge, this fair market value will remain pretty low and could well keep falling.

As a result, there’s a heavy burden of proof not only for taking them at their word, but for continuing to accept blithely the standard assumption that tariffs always hit consumers hardest – or will at all.