Im-Politic: Germany’s Looking Like an Increasingly Tarnished Anti-CCP Virus Gold Standard

Tags

CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Germany, Im-Politic, infections, lockdowns, mortality, reopening, shutdowns, stay-at-home, Worldometers.info, Wuhan virus

As the now-well-worn (but still pretty darned good!) wisecrack goes, “I’m old enough to remember when Germany was held up as a model for fighting the CCP Virus.” (See e.g., here and here.) And as this gibe implies, that portrayal of Germany keeps getting exposed as premature.

In fact, by several key grim virus metrics, Germany has caught up with the United States – which of course has just as often been held up as a model for how not to fight the pandemic.

For example, according to the Worldometers.info website, on a per capita basis, Germany’s daily death rate is now greater than the United States’. As of last Friday (I’m skipping the weekend numbers because CCP Virus-related info tends to get reported more slowly on Saturdays and Sundays), Germany’s new reported virus-related fatalities were 30 percent of America’s (838 vs 2,794). Yet Germany’s population (83.91 million) is only 25.28 percent of America’s (331.91 million).

Germany’s performance looks better in terms of seven-day average (7DA) daily figures – which are more accurate because they smooth out the inevitable random daily fluctuations. On December 18, the German figure of 598 was only 23.15 percent of its U.S. counterpart of 2,583.

But major German catch-up has still taken place. And it’s been going on for months. October 16 is when the American 7DA daily fatality total began its latest big move. That day’s figure was 716. So between then and December 18, it rose by 260.75 percent.

October 16 is just before Germany’s current death surge, and that day, the 7DA stood at 21. So through December 18, it’s risen by 2,748.62 percent. That’s more than ten times faster.

The new daily infections numbers tell a similar story. Let’s cut to the chase and examine the 7DAs. By this measure, the United States’ current and worst CCP Virus wave began about October 5, when the daily 7DA stood at 44,691. By December 18, it was up just under 400 percent.

Germany’s current wave (a true second wave) began about the same time, and on October 5, the 7DA for daily new infections stood at 2,292. As of December 18, the figure was 24,460 – a level just over 967 percent above October 5’s, and a rate of increase more than twice as fast as the United States.’

None of this means that Germany’s virus strategy has been a failure, and certainly doesn’t mean that America’s has been a success. In the first place, serious measurement problems continue to plague the infection and mortality data everywhere. (See, e.g., here.)

In the second place, it’s not cricket to compare any geographic regions’ CCP Virus strategies without taking major virus-related differences into account. In this case, it’s crucial to note that temperatures affect the virus’ spread, and that Germany got colder faster, at least between October and November, than the United States.  (For the U.S. data, see here. For the German data, see here.) Germany is also about seven times more densely populated than America, and its relatively crowded conditions alone clearly encourage virus spread. Moreover, it’s not as if Germany has locked down consistently since the CCP Virus’ arrival.

At the same time, the German-American differences in temperatures and temperature changes have hardly been enormous. (Further complicating the weather analysis – the United States’ enormous size also means enormous weather variance from region to region.) And the population density hasn’t changed during this year. So the gaps between these variables can’t possibly begin to explain why Germany’s current surge – albeit from much lower absolute starting levels – has been so much worse than the United States. But they’ve been the statistics used most often to judge virus strategies, so it seems fair to examine exactly what they’ve revealed lately.

Nor does it make sense to blame Germany’s relatively poor performance this fall and winter so far on its various reopenings. Unless you think shutting down an entire national economy for that many months consecutively, with no relief, is a viable approach to a pandemic.

Instead, it’s time to recognize, especially for lockdown and mask-wearing and other mass restrictions enthusiasts, that if – even before the pandemic is one year old – countries with mitigation approaches as far apart as those of Germany and the United States have been so widely labeled can see such completely unexpected infection and mortality results, the establishment conventional wisdom on sweeping behavioral curbs is weaker than advocates insist. And consequently, the best possible tradeoffs between CCP Virus spread and mortality effects on the one hand, and other public health and economic costs on the other, shouldn’t be regarded as set in stone.

Following Up: America’s CCP Virus Deaths Story is More of a Nursing Homes Story Than Ever

Tags

CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Following Up, lockdowns, nursing homes, reopening, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Wuhan virus

Starting in late April, RealityChek reported a major characteristic of the CCP Virus’ impact on the United States with huge implications for the kinds of shutdown and reopening approaches have been pursued and supported by the federal government and individual states.

That characteristic: The wildly outsized share of U.S. virus deaths linked to nursing homes and similar facilities, among residents and employees alike. And the biggest implication: The high concentration of the worst of the CCP Virus problem in a relatively small number of locations among an especially vulnerable population strongly indicated that massive lockdowns of the entire economy and society were far from the best anti-virus strategies. The nursing homes-heavy nature of pandemic deaths also strengthened the argument that the overall damage from widepread lockdowns was exceeding their benefits, whether looking at the economy or public health, and especially both combined.

So since Americans have rightly become so worried about the recent rise in national virus infections and deaths – both in states that reopened relatively early, and in those that didn’t – it’s crucial to know that the nursing homes factor has grown steadily larger, at least according to one important source.

The nursing homes data for previous posts came from ABC News and The New York Times, and as RealityChek reported, as of late April, deaths related to these facilities amounted to about 20 percent of all virus fatalities (as reported by ABC). Three weeks later, the percentage was up to 35 (as reported by The Times). Just this past week, The Times updated its statistics and the share is up to at least 41 percent. (Exact certainty is impossible because the federal government doesn’t yet track these trends, and neither do some states. So the paper has assembled its own database.)

The state-by-state situation varies considerably in this incredibly diverse country. The state with the highest share of virus deaths linked to nursing homes is New Hampshire, at 81 percent. Nevada’s share is the lowest, at 17 percent, and The Times judged the information to be insufficient for six states: Wisconsin, Arizona, Alaska, Alabama, Hawaii, and Missouri.

Nonetheless, the phenomenon is widespread enough to result in nursing home-related deaths accounting for more than half of all CCP Virus-related deaths in 20 states.

And what’s especially interesting: Many of the states where deaths have climbed the most recently have been states with high percentages of nursing home deaths. Some leading examples: California (a nursing home death share of 41 percent), Florida (42 percent), Georgia (43 percent), Oregon (53 percent), Iowa (53 percent), Mississippi (42 percent), and North Carolina (47 percent). At the same time, Texas has seen deaths increase steadily since early July, and remain elevated, but a relatively small 31 percent of its total fatalities have been nursing home-related. (The overall death rate figures come from The Washington Post‘s tracking feature, which is the best for U.S. data that I’ve seen.) 

One of my favorite expressions (and pieces of advice) holds that when everything is a priority, then othing is a priority. It’s easy to look at the immense nursing homes factor in America’s CCP Virus deaths picture, and the continuing popularity of sweeping lockdowns, and conclude that little of the country’s leadership is familiar with it.

Im-Politic: The Surprisingly Muddled Politics of School Reopening

Tags

Bill De Blasio, CCP Virus, Chicago, coronavirus, COVID 19, education, Im-Politic, Jim Kenney, Larry Hogan, Lori Lightfoot, Maryland, Montgomery County, New York City, Philadelphia, reopening, schools, teachers, teachers unions, Wuhan virus

Mid-summer sure is shaping up as a bad period for The Narrative being pushed by many politicians in this pandemic and election year, and that seems predominant in those Mainstream Media news organizations still retaining enormous influence over how Americans perceive, think, and even act.

Just a few days ago, as reported on RealityChek, a Gallup poll cast doubt on whether even African Americans regard America’s police forces are systemically racist. More recently, considerable evidence has appeared – and in real life, not polls – challenging the belief that the nation’s school reopening debate pits the Trump administration and other Republicans and conservatives and their insistence that in-classroom instruction resume this fall with no regard whatever for the health of students, administrators, versus Democrats, liberals, and teachers themselves who refuse to expose anyone involved in education to a deadly disease.

Think what you will of the substance of this reopening debate and what types of school year starts strike the best balance between providing students with urgently needed education and other benefits of physical schooling on the one hand, and safeguarding their health on the other. It’s still pretty stunning to learn that in numerous American cities and other jurisdictions, the teachers and their unions – long a key Democratic Party constituency and funder – have been up in arms against the reopening plans of Never Trumper leaders that feature various mixes of virtual and in-school instruction.

Let’s start with my beloved native New York City, whose mayor, Bill de Blasio, is one of America’s most far-Left politicians (albeit one with a unique ability to antagonize folks on the Left). At the end of last month, de Blasio unveiled a reopening plan incorporating a weekly “blended approach” of in-class and virtual learning for “a vast majority of kids.” De Blasio also said that implementing the plan required that the city’s daily positive CCP Virus test rate stayed below three percent – and justified his approach by noting that it had lately been steady at one percent

The reaction of the city’s educators? Protests that included teachers (and some parents) carrying coffins and a guillotine.

Chicago is another big city with a high-profile progressive Democratic mayor – Lori Lightfoot. Unlike de Blasio, she hasn’t alienated many of her fellow progressives. But in the view of her city’s teachers, she has also committed the sin of proposing a school reopening plan entailing “a hybrid schedule combining two days of in-person instruction and three days or remote learning for kindergarten through sophomore year students….” Moreover, Chicago parents with kids in the public schools can opt for full virtual learning under the plan, which isn’t yet official policy. The school system says that it’s prepared for the return of physical classes with “large PPE investments, [a] pod system that should help with contact tracing and that it will have temperature checks at school.” Yet Chicago teachers are marching in protest, too, with the union pushing for an all virtual reopening.

Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney has a lower national profile than de Blasio or Lightfoot, and lately a more mixed claim as a progressive champion, including among progressives. (See here and here for evidence.) But he’s clearly a liberal Democrat.

His city’s school Superintendent also proposed a blended-type plan that “would have sent most children back to school in person two days a week and contained a 100% virtual option for families who wanted it.” The response of Philadelphia teachers (and also some parents)? “Don’t force one teacher or student into classrooms until you can guarantee our safety.” And the backlash was strong enough to force the school system into revision mode.

You say you aren’t confused enough? Maryland’s Governor Larry Hogan has recently muddied the narrative still further.  I know – he’s a Republican. But he’s worked hard to position himself as an anti-Trump Republican and possibility for the party’s presidential nomination in 2024. So it would be logical to expect Hogan to fall in with the hard core opponents of in-class reopenings. Yet yesterday, Hogan slapped down as “overly broad” a (liberal Democratic) Maryland county’s order to bar, at least through October 1, not only public schools from offering any in-person education, but private schools as well.

It’s entirely possible that the confused politics of school reopenings may complicate efforts to arrive at a reasonable working consensus on this vital issue.  But in these hyperpartisan times, a better outcome might be in store.  The willingness of various politicians to depart from the battle lines widely supposed to exist might become a badly needed force for pragmatism – and especially for the flexible, case-by-case solutions that will undoubtedly often be needed.      

Im-Politic: Biden’s CCP Virus Fairytales

Tags

Angela Merkel, CCP Virus, contact tracing, coronavirus, COVID 19, election 2020, Germany, Im-Politic, Jobs, Joe Biden, lockdown, reopening, shutdown, testing, unemployment, Wuhan virus

I totally get that Joe Biden would want to throw cold water all over this past Thursday’s U.S. jobs report (for June), whose reported massive gains smashed expectations for the second straight month. He’s virtually certain to be formally named the Democrats’ presidential nominee this year. Therefore, he naturally has a strong interest in portraying the state of the nation, including its economy, in the worst possible terms.

I also totally get that the nation’s media would report Biden’s gloom-mongering. He’s a major political candidate, and what he says is by definition news.

What I totally don’t get is how none of the country’s pundits and other political analysts have caught the glaring weakness and equally glaring internal contradiction in Biden’s core claim that a million more Americans “would still have their job if Donald Trump had done his job.”

The weakness: Biden apparently is charging that the President should have shut down the economy and strongly recommended mask-wearing and social distancing measures (which of course inevitably have their own, independent economy-depressing effects) much earlier than he did (the first such Trump action – a stay-at-home guidance – came on March 16). As a result, he suggests, the U.S. jobs market would be in much better shape. 

But as reported in this Washington Post examination of Biden’s CCP Virus record, nothing of the kind had issued from the former Vice President or his camp by that time. So much, therefore, for any contention that he’s been especially prescient when it comes to the virus’ impact on the economy and on employment in particular.

The contradiction: Let’s say that Biden had indeed recommended a much earlier shutdown – and that the Trump administration had taken his advice immediately. And let’s suppose that the President’s record had been much better in terms of testing and contact-tracing – which Biden has called “the key to restoring enough confidence for businesses to reopen safely and consumers to reengage with the economy” (as opposed to what he has described as the President’s reopening plan: “just open”). Would the massive job losses suffered by the U.S. economy have been avoided, as Biden has suggested? Would even “a million more Americans” be employed – and presumably safely employed (a number whose source I haven’t found, and that represents a small fraction of the 15 million jobs that remain lost since the CCP Virus’ full effects began to be felt)?

Biden and many Americans clearly would like these claims to be true. But good luck finding any supporting evidence. Indeed, everything we know about the anti-virus efforts even of countries that allegedly have dealt much better with the pandemic reveals those expectations to be wholly unrealistic.

Germany is probably the best example – since it’s not a totalitarian dictatorship like China that can lock down massively while truly trampling on the few individual liberties it ever allowed the slightest breathing room. Even so, it’s been widely depicted as the gold standard for anti-virus success.

To summarize, on March 22, Chancellor Angela Merkel imposed on the country one of Europe’s strictest lockdowns. A cautious easing began on May 6. And how have the country’s workers fared? Take a look at the chart below (from Bloomberg.com). That joblessness spike looks an awful lot like America’s. P.S. These figures don’t include millions of German workers not officially counted as unemployed only because of Bonn’s work-sharing programs, which has kept them nominally at work via wage subsidies.

Moreover, practically no sooner did Germany’s reopening begin, than significant virus case flareups began.

In other words, even Germany’s experience makes clear that if you favor maximum anti-virus efforts, like pervasive lockdowns, there’s no avoiding massive unemployment. And given the disease’s transmission rates – which may have worsened, possibly due more to mutation than to any reopenings, even as its never extreme lethality may be weakening – anyone insisting on the contrary deserves to be seen as just another cynical politician peddling fairytales.

 

Im-Politic: The Case for Shutdowns Remains Far from Open and Shut

Tags

Arizona, California, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Doug Ducey, Gavin Newsome, hospitalizations, Im-Politic, infections, reopening, shutdown, Wuhan virus

OK, enough with the History Wars/Cancel Culture stuff (for now)! Let’s turn to something relatively uncontroversial (!) – like the resurgence of CCP Virus cases in the United States. And in particular, let’s focus on the common argument that these increases, along with higher hospitalization rates, show conclusively that the states that closed late or reopened early or never closed or never closed much (you get the picture), were tragically and even recklessly mistaken, and that the states that closed early or stayed closed for the longest and have reopened only very gradually were the truly responsible actors.

There’s one set of actions that certainly seems to clinch the case for the “closers” – the decisions of many of the late closing/early opening states to pause or slow their reopenings, or even roll back many. According to this report, the number of states and cities taking such steps now totals 15.

But this loudly nagging question remains: What’s the actual evidence that supposedly irresponsible reopening measures have caused either the growing case or even hospitalization numbers? Pretty flimsy, as it turns out.

Let’s begin with Arizona – widely described as a quintessential reopening disaster. It’s true that confirmed virus cases have shot up since very late May, with new daily cases per hundred thousand residents soaring from 248.5 on May 27 to 1,063.9 on June 28. That’s about a four-fold increase. (All such infection figures and change come from the Washington Post‘s continually updated virus tracker feature.) 

But figuring out the impact of shutdown-type policies involves not only identifying how many new cases and other indicators have worsened recently. It much more importantly involves comparing rates of worsening during the shutdown periods and afterwards.

In Arizona’s case, Republican Governor Doug Ducey began imposing limits in mid-March, and canceled school for the remainder of the current academic year and issued a stay-at-home order on the 30^th. (My Arizona dates come from this timeline.) On that day, new case numbers stood at 16.7 per hundred thousand. On May 11, he decided to reopen restaurants. On that day, new cases hit 163.8 per hundred thousand – meaning that they.rose a little less than ten-fold during the shutdown.

As described above, the latest Arizona numbers show 1,063.9 new daily cases. So during reopening phase, the state’s new daily case numbers rose about 6.5-fold. In other words, cases rose much more slowly during the reopening phase (which Ducey paused as of yesterday) as it did during the shutdown phase. So that’s supposed to be evidence that its shutdown policies have been reckless?

Even taking into account the laws of large and small numbers (which teach that the lower the absolute number baseline you begin with, the easier it is to produce big percentage gains), I’m glad I don’t have to use them to strengthen the case for stricter reopenings – if only because the virus seems to spread so rapidly. As a result, independent of improving testing rates (which themselves should be revealing more cases), the rate of infections should be speeding up the more infections are recorded, not slowing down.

Even harder to explain from the standpoint of shutdown enthusiasts: On March 30, when the state’s major shutdown phase began, Arizona CCP Virus-related daily hospitalizations stood at 51 (total). By May 11, when major reopening began, it had fallen to 41. Since hospitalization rates are often called the most important measure of progress or backsliding against the virus, that’s a big sign that shutdowns work, right?

Not exactly. For yesterday’s new hospitalization number (the latest available) was only two. In all fairness, between the start of major reopening and June 8, this number doubled – from 41 to 82. But since then, the daily hospitalization rate has sunk like a stone. Even granted the reality of lags between new case identifications and hospitalizations, these figures make clear that the state of Arizona’s economy and the regulations governing activity have had no discernible impact on its new case numbers or its hospitalization numbers.

Of course, Arizona’s only one state. So let’s look at another – and the biggest in terms of population. That’s of course, California. Even better, California was a state praised for shutting down early and aggressively, and has reopened cautiously – till very recently, when it mandated some rollbacks. And its experience strengthens the case for sweeping shutdowns not one iota.

California’s new case numbers have been rising, too – though without the recent spike seen in Arizona. Even so, they’re now at an all-time daily high as well: with 553.1 new cases per hundred thousand residents. This total is only a little over half of Arizona’s latest, which would seem to reenforce the case for stricter shutdown policies. But again, that’s not the new case statistic that deserves the most attention. It’s imperative to look at California’s new daily cases and how they’ve changed during both the state’s shutdown phase and its reopening phase.

The Golden State’s Democratic Governor, Gavin Newsom, issued a state-wide stay-at-home order on that went into effect March 19 — actually, not so very different from when Arizona’s shutdowns began in earnest, though they were narrower. That day, the state’s reported cases per 100,000 residents stood at 2.6.  

On May 8, California began a gradual reopening. That day, its reported cases per 100,000 residents was 159.7, meaning that during the shutdown, they skyrocketed by 61 times. Because the latest such figure is 553.1 per thousand, the rate of increase during the reopening was 2.46 times. Again, not results that speak well for the spread-inhibiting record of shutdowns.

The California hospitalization story is more complicated than Arizona’s – but anything but a slam dunk for shutdown supporters. The state tracks hospitalization differently from that of its neighbor, recording daily changes in net hospitalizations (i.e., admissions minus discharges). What the numbers show, according to this chart, is that is that shortly after the stay-at-home order went into effect (March 20), they fell pretty steadily through very early June,stayed roughly level until the middle of the month, and soared thereafter.

What’s especially interesting about these figures is that they seem completely unrelated to the shutdown phase and the reopening. After all, net hospitalizations kept falling for nearly a full month after the gradual reopening began (though at a somewhat slower rate). And the big increase in net hospitalization that began in mid-June didn’t start until some five weeks after the reopening. As a result, I don’t see much of a shutdown/reopening connection there, either.

It’s certainly possible that reopening decisions helped increase infection rates by encouraging Americans in those states to believe that all was clear, and that life could go back to normal, without any mask-wearing or social distancing and the like. But which state governors have made those claims? It’s more likely that many residents of those states decided to throw caution to the wind regardless of what officials said – which doesn’t speak well for them, although it also doesn’t say much about the enforceability of shutdowns. What’s the alternative, however? Handing state and local officials China-like powers? Raise your hand if you’d be happy with that outcome.

Moreover, these shutdown/reopening figures tell us nothing about another, and too often neglected, crucial dimension of the virus policy debate – what are the public health costs of prolonged continuation of shutdowns? Heart Disease Patients’ and Victims of Depression’s Lives Matter, too, after all.

So far, it seems clear that, like crises and other difficult situations in general, the keys to dealing with the CCP Virus pandemic won’t be hyping clearcut formulas,  false either-or-choices, and declarations of certainty as ringing as they are unjustified and blame-casting. There’s still no substitute for good judgment, common sense (and yes, that includes mask-wearing when in crowded indoor spaces, steering clear of them and outdoor crowds as much as possible, and washing your hands fanatically), and an ability to learn.  What a shame that the national stockpiles of those qualities seem so meager.  

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Rosier May U.S. Jobs Picture – Including for Manufacturing

Tags

CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Jobs, Labor Department, manufacturing, nonfarm jobs, private sector, reopening, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

As of this morning’s stunning U.S. employment report from the Labor Department (for May), it looks like I’m wrong on the strength and speed of the recovery from the nation’s CCP Virus-induced recession. And I couldn’t be happier. (See here for my most recent forecast.)

What’s also critically important to note is that the announcement that the economy last month created a net new 2.51 million jobs over April’s levels seems to belie warnings that reopening the economy sooner rather than later would bring disastrous public health consequences – even with considerable social distancing, mask-wearing, and other protective measures. But the economic shutdowns began to be lifted in late April, and here it is early June, and no new spikes in virus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths have been recorded.

Further, strong reasons can be cited for believing that payrolls improvement will continue, at least until the arrival of a notable second wave, assuming one’s coming. For as usual, the May jobs report is based on the mid-month situation. One possible cause for concern, though: The response rates of the businesses and households surveyed remain lower than they were before the pandemic struck. So it’s possible that considerable economic distress is being missed.by the Labor Department’s canvassers.

All the same, let’s not pretend that the employment picture is anywhere close to good or even acceptable. The unemployment rate remains at an horrendous 13.3 percent, and non-farm payrolls (the Labor Department’s definition of the U.S. jobs universe) are still down by fully 17.67 million year-on-year.

Moreover, the new upswing is starting from a lower baseline than originally reported, for March net jobs losses are now pegged at 1.37 million, not the 701,000 first estimated, and April’s decrease has been revised from 20.50 million to 20.69 million.

Just for comparison’s sake, job losses during the Great Recession that followed the 2007-08 financial crisis totaled 8.69 million (from December, 2007 through February, 2010). And pre-recession employment levels weren’t regained until May, 2014. The very speed and strength of the latest jobs nosedive could mean that the employment recovery will be notably faster – as perhaps indicated by this morning’s data. But there’s also much more ground to be made up.

Interestingly, the CCP Virus impact on manufacturing remains smaller than on the rest of the economy. True, on a percentage basis, industry’s month-to-month jobs comeback (225,000 in absolute terms) was less on a percentage basis (1.96 percent) than that of the private sector overall (2.86 percent) – although slighly higher than that of the total economy (1.92 percent, a figure that of course includes hard-hit state and local governments).

But that’s partly because the manufacturing payrolls slump has been somewhat milder. The sector’s March employment losses have been upwardly revised from an originally reported 18,000 to 46,000. But last month’s initial April estimate of a 1.33 million jobs decline is now judged to be a slightly better 1.32 million.

Since February, therefore, whereas the total economy has shed 12.82 percent of its payrolls and the private sector 13.87 percent, manufacturing employment is off by 9.78 percent.

Let’s not be pollyannish, though. From its pre-Great Recession level to the trough, manufacturing lost 2.293 million jobs. And even at their peak during the pre-virus recovery (last December), only 61.71 percent had been regained.

That is, thanks to the CCP Virus, both the U.S. economy overall and its manufacturing sector remain awfully sick on the employment front.

Making News: New Daily Caller Piece On-Line on the CCP Virus and the Economy

Tags

bankruptcies, CCP Virus, consumers, coronavirus, COVID 19, DailyCaller.com, deflation, economy, exports, Im-Politic, Jobs, manufacturing, public health, real estate, recession, recovery, rent, reopening, restart, restaurants, retail, small business, testing, travel, unemployment, vaccines, Wuhan virus

I’m pleased to announce that my latest freelance article has just been published on the popular DailyCaller.com news site.  The title pretty much says it all:  “Don’t Expect A V-Shaped Recovery From Coronavirus,” and you can read it at this link.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Im-Politic: How Much Did the Lockdowns Really Help?

Tags

African Americans, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, economy, Georgia, hospitalizations, Im-Politic, lockdowns, public health, reopening, shutdown, Virginia, Washington Post, Wuhan virus

Is it time to start putting the CCP Virus economy-reopening debate shoe on the other foot, at least when it comes to one key measure of progress or backsliding against the pandemic? More specifically, is it time to put less emphasis on finding out whether states that have reopened relatively quickly have seen their virus situations worsening, and more on whether states that closed early and/or have stayed largely closed have achieved progress that’s been any better?

This question occurred to me this morning upon reading in my Washington Post that when it comes to new infections and fatalities, Virginia has just seen record highs recently whether we’re talking about single day totals or the more informative seven-day averages. That’s striking because Virginia has been one of those states that shutdown substantially quite early, and has reopened very slowly.

So I began wondering how Virginia’s record compares with a state that reopened very early – Georgia. And the numbers clearly show that their performances over the most relevant timeframes have been…pretty comparable. Which represents new evidence that the economically devastating lockdowns have been under-performers for containing the virus’ spread.

Virginia and Georgia are particularly interesting to compare because of their similarities. The latter’s total population is estimated this year at 8.63 million while the latter’s is a not greatly bigger 10.74 million.

Both states also have relatively big populations of African-Americans – who have been among the virus’ biggest victims. Blacks represent 31.03 percent of all Georgians, and 18.81 percent of all Virginians.

That Washington Post Virginia article did mention one area of continuing improvement for the state: new hospitalizations. They’re especially important both because fears of hospitals getting overwhelmed by the pandemic were prime justifications for the original shutdown orders, and because they’re the best measures of whether the virus is being contained or not. After all, numbers or new cases seem to depend heavily on increases in testing (which naturally reveal more and more infections). And controversies over identifying genuine CCP Virus-induced deaths remain heated – in large part because methodologies vary so greatly state-by-state.

By contrast, there have been no debates over how many patients with virus symptoms have been admitted to healthcare facilities. The only uncertainties are those stemming from how promptly these facilities report their admissions to state health departments.

That kind of uncertainty is still clouding Virginia’s data. As of today, (see this link and scroll down till you see the option for hospitalization data) the state has only reported new hospitalizations through May 20, and these data are divided between confirmed cases and probably cases. (The former are the great majority, though.)

Even so, because of Virginia’s lockdown policy – which began in earnest at the end of March, began easing in phases for the state’s least populous areas in mid-May, but which largely continue for its most populous areas (those closest to the District of Columbia)– it should be among the gold standard states for virus progress if turning off most economic activity is considered crucial. (Here’s an unusually informative lockdown timeline for Virginia, Maryland, and the District.)

Its interactive hospitalization chart is a little hard to read, but it seems to show that on March 31, the seven-day moving average of new admissions stood at just under 59, and through early May (when the lockdown began to be lifted). moved up steadily to a little over 81. So they rose by just under 39 percent. By May 20, this average had decreased all the way to just under 45. In other words, daily hospitalizations dropped by a little less than 45 percent. And for the entire period, the seven-day moving average for new hospitalizations dipped by 2.34 percent.

Georgia’s lockdown began only a bit later than Maryland’s (on April 2) but serious easing began much earlier (on April 24). Indeed, Governor Brian Kemp was widely pilloried for the decision.

During its three weeks of lockdown, Georgia’s seven-day average daily hospitalization numbers went from about 80 to about 130. (The non-interactive chart below is even harder to read precisely than Virginia’s interactive graphic, but check it out for yourself below.)

This roughly 62.50 percent rise in daily hospitalizations was much higher than Virginia’s during its lockdown period Did this discrepancy mean that Georgia ended its lockdown too soon? Or was its somewhat heavier African-American population density the major difference? Search me.

Georgia’s reopening has been more aggressive than Virginia’s, and that could well explain why its seven-day average hospitalization figure remained just about flat from the start of this phase through May 22.

But I’m not entirely persuaded that the lack of improvement during this period means that Georgia’s relatively fast reopening has flopped. Because for the first three weeks of this reopening, the state’s seven-day average new hospitalization figure fell by about half – faster than Virginia’s during its slower reopening. And as the Post has reported, despite Virginia’s caution, daily (although not yet seven-day averages) have been rising recently, too.

The fairest conclusion to me seems that the hospitalization data give an edge to Virginia’s more cautious lockdown-reopening strategy, but that the edge is on the modest side. And most important, it’s far from clear that this margin justifies both the economic and healthcare costs of relatively longer and/or more thorough lockdowns.

 

 

Im-Politic: The CCP Virus Crisis Has Become Even More of a Nursing Home Crisis

Tags

Canada, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Europe, Following Up, lockdown, nursing homes, reopening, seniors, shutdown, Sweden, The New York Times, United Kingdom, Wuhan virus

About three weeks ago, I posted about the degree to which total U.S. CCP Virus-related deaths were occurring in nursing homes and other special facilities for seniors. And I noted that the answer – “really big” – provided significant evidence for the idea that substantial reopenings of the U.S. economy were much more feasible than widely believed.

The reason: If the virus’ main dangers were so highly concentrated in a single, highly vulnerable, and already confined population, then by definition, such dangers to the rest of the public were considerably less serious than widely believed. Therefore, relatively low-risk populations could be permitted to reengage in normal economic activity sooner rather than later.

Three weeks later, the case for faster, wider reopenings is even stronger – along with the arguments for focusing virus containment measures on seniors, and especially those inside or outside such facilities.

For example, that previous post cited data indicating that about twenty percent of all U.S. virus deaths were taking place in elder care facilities. More recently, a comprehensive New York Times survey pegged the share at 35 percent.

Moreover, data are coming in making clear that this pattern is hardly confined to the United States. In Canada, the share has been reported at 81 percent. Across Europe, national shares are thought to be between 42 percent and 57 percent. In the United Kingdom, it’s estimated at 25 percent.

Possibly the most intriguing findings concern Sweden. That’s because its lockdown was the lightest imposed among the wealthier national economies. The overall Swedish virus death rates, however, have been right in the middle of the pack for Europe.  (See here for the latest numbers.) Yet the Swedish government has also reported that nearly half those deaths have taken place in elder care facilities.

In other words, if Sweden had its nursing home act together, its virus fatalities would have been about 185 per million people – which would have put it well behind the United States, Spain, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. Sweden’s economy, unfortunately, seems unlikely to escape taking a major virus-related economic hit anyway. But the toll seems largely due to its relatively small size and as a result its relatively heavy reliance on foreign trade – not to its failure to shut down more broadly.

The United States, of course, is much less reliant on foreign trade. In theory, then, if its nursing and similar facilities get the aid they need, America’s economy can continue reopening – and even faster than at present – without running major further health risks. Indeed, as I’ve also noted previously, such reopening per se could well curb other emerging public health dangers. Moreover, as observed by the Washington Post editorial board, moving toward the Swedish model might speed up progress toward creating herd immunity in the United States. This status would mean considerable protection against the second virus wave that might arrive along with cooler weather this fall.

As always, “reopening” doesn’t mean an immediate, complete return to the pre-virus normal. And serious uncertainties continue surrounding the nursing homes data, and indeed all virus-related data. But a pattern visible in so many high income countries can’t be dismissed, either, and it should put ever more pressure on backers of slower reopenings to justify their positions.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Respectable Case for Optimism?

Tags

CCP Virus, China, consumer confidence, consumers, coronavirus, COVID 19, Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, lockdown, recovery, reopening, restart, restaurants, retail, second wave, shutdown, social distancing, Sweden, testing, vaccines, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

At the risk of being (undeservedly) tarred as a CCP Virus pollyanna, I can’t help but being struck by the some new evidence that the U.S. economy’s recovery from its pandemic-induced swoon will be faster than widely feared. In fact, I still share these fears to some degree. But I can’t ignore increasing signs to the contrary.

To be clear, this evidence has little to do with the subject of yesterday’s post. Just because data can be cited showing significant national progress in beating back the virus threat doesn’t necessarily mean that a more so-called “V-shaped” economic rebound is on the way. The same goes for the impact of this progress on the economy reopening decisions of individual U.S. states – even though the more decline seen in numbers of new cases (despite gains in testing that should be revealing much more infection), numbers of deaths, and numbers of virus-related hospitalizations, the more reopening obviously will be seen.

Nor are my views being shaped by the strong rebound seen in U.S. stock markets so far (including today so far), or by the newly bullish recovery views voiced last night on “Sixty Minutes” by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. And this post isn’t even driven by the latest news about vaccine progress (though such reports will clearly help as long as the results continue being validated).

The reason: I’ve been convinced that the key to the recovery’s strength will be Americans’ willingness to start patronizing businesses in an economy where most activity – and most income earning opportunities – depend on consumer spending. So I’ve put considerable stock in predictions that, even though all the objective conditions can show that a return to normality will be safe, too many Americans will remain too fearful to boost the economy significantly.

I also take seriously the idea that all the restrictions on visiting retail stores (including restaurants) and personal service businesses will limit their customer flow either simply by forcing them to operate substantially below capacity, or by dissuading many customers from visiting in the first place, and thereby sharply reducing impulse consuming. Further, I’m well aware that the much more modest shock administered to Americans by the Great Recession triggered by the 2007-08 financial crisis was painfully slow to wear off. (See here and here where I write about reasons for recovery pessimism.)

In addition, the experiences of other countries that started reopening earlier has reenforced consumer caution concerns. Sweden, for example, has imposed fewer economic restrictions than any other major country. But this survey by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. reports that consumer spending has dropped significantly anyway, and may not recover for months. China claims that it’s beaten the virus and its regime has been easing factory lockdowns since February. But as of late April, retail sales were still way down.

Finally, there’s the second wave threat, which could kneecap the economy as temperatures start dropping in the fall even if summer does witness a decent bounce back toward pre-virus consuming.

So the case against a relatively quick recovery with real legs is still awfully strong.

But don’t overlook reasons for more optimism. One that’s nothing less than amazing: The piece in this morning’s Washington Post reporting that even though virus testing is now much more widely available in the United States than previously, Americans are far from rushing to capitalize on these opportunities. Even accepting the various reasons offered in this article (e.g., not enough Americans know that the situation has changed; there’s too much mistrust of medical providers in some U.S. communities, particularly African-Americans), it’s difficult at least for me to conclude anything else but that many in the United States simply aren’t concerned enough about the pandemic to take this precaution. After all, if they were panic-stricken, wouldn’t they be following every bit of news about the supply of tests with baited breath?

Perhaps more important, the more news that emerges that the CCP Virus is much less lethal than early reports suggested, the (understandably) less concerned about infection more and more Americans seem to be.    

Then there are all the reports of Americans, whether in states that have eased lockdowns more vigorously and those that haven’t, violating social distance guidelines, either by not wearing masks where they’re supposed to, or seemingly ignoring social distancing rules in public place – and indeed returning to restaurants and bars and beaches in pretty impressive numbers. These reports are anecdotal, and therefore should be viewed with lots of caution. Also, please don’t assume that I’m endorsing this behavior! But there sure seems to be a lot of it, these reports also seem related to growing evidence of the virus’ relatively modest death rates, and and as an old adage goes, when enough anecdotes appear, they become data. 

Finally are several indicators pointing to an actual, non-trivial comeback in economic activity, and for a variety of sectors. This account mentions encouraging signs from the tech sector to the automotive industry. This article presents evidence of bottoming even in hard-hit bricks and mortars retail stores and restaurants. And click here for information on the housing industry.

Of course, the references above to “bottoming” could still be entirely consistent with pessimistic predictions of a painfully slow climb back to pre-virus prosperity. But I still find myself wondering if, having seen the overpoweringly depressive effect of various official edicts literally to halt and outlaw much economic activity, Americans might experience a reasonably powerful growth effect from their withdrawal – not to mention declining fears that infection is a death sentence.