Im-Politic: The Case for Shutdowns Remains Far from Open and Shut

Tags

Arizona, California, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Doug Ducey, Gavin Newsome, hospitalizations, Im-Politic, infections, reopening, shutdown, Wuhan virus

OK, enough with the History Wars/Cancel Culture stuff (for now)! Let’s turn to something relatively uncontroversial (!) – like the resurgence of CCP Virus cases in the United States. And in particular, let’s focus on the common argument that these increases, along with higher hospitalization rates, show conclusively that the states that closed late or reopened early or never closed or never closed much (you get the picture), were tragically and even recklessly mistaken, and that the states that closed early or stayed closed for the longest and have reopened only very gradually were the truly responsible actors.

There’s one set of actions that certainly seems to clinch the case for the “closers” – the decisions of many of the late closing/early opening states to pause or slow their reopenings, or even roll back many. According to this report, the number of states and cities taking such steps now totals 15.

But this loudly nagging question remains: What’s the actual evidence that supposedly irresponsible reopening measures have caused either the growing case or even hospitalization numbers? Pretty flimsy, as it turns out.

Let’s begin with Arizona – widely described as a quintessential reopening disaster. It’s true that confirmed virus cases have shot up since very late May, with new daily cases per hundred thousand residents soaring from 248.5 on May 27 to 1,063.9 on June 28. That’s about a four-fold increase. (All such infection figures and change come from the Washington Post‘s continually updated virus tracker feature.) 

But figuring out the impact of shutdown-type policies involves not only identifying how many new cases and other indicators have worsened recently. It much more importantly involves comparing rates of worsening during the shutdown periods and afterwards.

In Arizona’s case, Republican Governor Doug Ducey began imposing limits in mid-March, and canceled school for the remainder of the current academic year and issued a stay-at-home order on the 30^th. (My Arizona dates come from this timeline.) On that day, new case numbers stood at 16.7 per hundred thousand. On May 11, he decided to reopen restaurants. On that day, new cases hit 163.8 per hundred thousand – meaning that they.rose a little less than ten-fold during the shutdown.

As described above, the latest Arizona numbers show 1,063.9 new daily cases. So during reopening phase, the state’s new daily case numbers rose about 6.5-fold. In other words, cases rose much more slowly during the reopening phase (which Ducey paused as of yesterday) as it did during the shutdown phase. So that’s supposed to be evidence that its shutdown policies have been reckless?

Even taking into account the laws of large and small numbers (which teach that the lower the absolute number baseline you begin with, the easier it is to produce big percentage gains), I’m glad I don’t have to use them to strengthen the case for stricter reopenings – if only because the virus seems to spread so rapidly. As a result, independent of improving testing rates (which themselves should be revealing more cases), the rate of infections should be speeding up the more infections are recorded, not slowing down.

Even harder to explain from the standpoint of shutdown enthusiasts: On March 30, when the state’s major shutdown phase began, Arizona CCP Virus-related daily hospitalizations stood at 51 (total). By May 11, when major reopening began, it had fallen to 41. Since hospitalization rates are often called the most important measure of progress or backsliding against the virus, that’s a big sign that shutdowns work, right?

Not exactly. For yesterday’s new hospitalization number (the latest available) was only two. In all fairness, between the start of major reopening and June 8, this number doubled – from 41 to 82. But since then, the daily hospitalization rate has sunk like a stone. Even granted the reality of lags between new case identifications and hospitalizations, these figures make clear that the state of Arizona’s economy and the regulations governing activity have had no discernible impact on its new case numbers or its hospitalization numbers.

Of course, Arizona’s only one state. So let’s look at another – and the biggest in terms of population. That’s of course, California. Even better, California was a state praised for shutting down early and aggressively, and has reopened cautiously – till very recently, when it mandated some rollbacks. And its experience strengthens the case for sweeping shutdowns not one iota.

California’s new case numbers have been rising, too – though without the recent spike seen in Arizona. Even so, they’re now at an all-time daily high as well: with 553.1 new cases per hundred thousand residents. This total is only a little over half of Arizona’s latest, which would seem to reenforce the case for stricter shutdown policies. But again, that’s not the new case statistic that deserves the most attention. It’s imperative to look at California’s new daily cases and how they’ve changed during both the state’s shutdown phase and its reopening phase.

The Golden State’s Democratic Governor, Gavin Newsom, issued a state-wide stay-at-home order on that went into effect March 19 — actually, not so very different from when Arizona’s shutdowns began in earnest, though they were narrower. That day, the state’s reported cases per 100,000 residents stood at 2.6.  

On May 8, California began a gradual reopening. That day, its reported cases per 100,000 residents was 159.7, meaning that during the shutdown, they skyrocketed by 61 times. Because the latest such figure is 553.1 per thousand, the rate of increase during the reopening was 2.46 times. Again, not results that speak well for the spread-inhibiting record of shutdowns.

The California hospitalization story is more complicated than Arizona’s – but anything but a slam dunk for shutdown supporters. The state tracks hospitalization differently from that of its neighbor, recording daily changes in net hospitalizations (i.e., admissions minus discharges). What the numbers show, according to this chart, is that is that shortly after the stay-at-home order went into effect (March 20), they fell pretty steadily through very early June,stayed roughly level until the middle of the month, and soared thereafter.

What’s especially interesting about these figures is that they seem completely unrelated to the shutdown phase and the reopening. After all, net hospitalizations kept falling for nearly a full month after the gradual reopening began (though at a somewhat slower rate). And the big increase in net hospitalization that began in mid-June didn’t start until some five weeks after the reopening. As a result, I don’t see much of a shutdown/reopening connection there, either.

It’s certainly possible that reopening decisions helped increase infection rates by encouraging Americans in those states to believe that all was clear, and that life could go back to normal, without any mask-wearing or social distancing and the like. But which state governors have made those claims? It’s more likely that many residents of those states decided to throw caution to the wind regardless of what officials said – which doesn’t speak well for them, although it also doesn’t say much about the enforceability of shutdowns. What’s the alternative, however? Handing state and local officials China-like powers? Raise your hand if you’d be happy with that outcome.

Moreover, these shutdown/reopening figures tell us nothing about another, and too often neglected, crucial dimension of the virus policy debate – what are the public health costs of prolonged continuation of shutdowns? Heart Disease Patients’ and Victims of Depression’s Lives Matter, too, after all.

So far, it seems clear that, like crises and other difficult situations in general, the keys to dealing with the CCP Virus pandemic won’t be hyping clearcut formulas,  false either-or-choices, and declarations of certainty as ringing as they are unjustified and blame-casting. There’s still no substitute for good judgment, common sense (and yes, that includes mask-wearing when in crowded indoor spaces, steering clear of them and outdoor crowds as much as possible, and washing your hands fanatically), and an ability to learn.  What a shame that the national stockpiles of those qualities seem so meager.  

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Major Virus-Related U.S. Economy Hit Confirmed – With Much Worse Numbers Sure to Come

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CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, exports, GDP, goods, Great Recession, gross domestic product, imports, inflation-adjusted output, lockdown, real exports, real GDP, real imports, recession, services, shutdown, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

This is a catch-up post on the CCP Virus-induced contraction of the U.S. economy growth, as well as a report on today’s latest update from the Commerce Department. The big news this morning: During the first quarter of this year, the economy’s sequential shrinkage for the first quarter of this year was pegged in this morning’s third, and final (for now) estimate at 5.09 percent at an annual rate in inflation-adjusted terms. That compares with the 4.87 percent drop in real output recorded in the first estimate, and a 5.15 percent decline estimated in the second estimate, which yours truly missed when it came out last month.

So things economic are looking slightly less terrible than previously thought – but still pretty terrible. In fact, this first quarter economic downturn was America’s most severe since the fourth quarter of 2008’s 8.66 percent – when the Great Recession spurred by the financial crisis was at its low point.

And there’s no doubt much worse to come in the second quarter figures, whose initial release will be a month from now (along with a regularly scheduled revision of all the data on the gross domestic product [GDP] and its changes going back to 2015). After all, the first quarter numbers only include the first month (March) during which the CCP Virus and its growth-killing effects began to be fully suffered.

Before delving into the trade-related details, a cautionary/explanatory note should be repeated: The phrases “at an annual rate” and “annualized” mean that an economic contraction of this historic scale didn’t take place al at once. Instead, they mean that in the economy contracted at a rate that would add up to the current 5.09 percent if the shrinkage continued at this pace for an entire year. This qualification is especially important because of the tremendous expected worsening of the slump in the second quarter.

Today’s GDP report revealed that the after-nflation annualized combined goods and services trade deficit during the first quarter was $815.5 billion. That’s a bit worse than the $816.0 billion figure reported last month but a bit better than the $817.4 billion calculated in the first estimate. And this so-far-final number represents a 9.34 percent decline from the $900.7 billion level reported for the fourth quarter of last year.

These results leave the drop-off the steepest since the 18.13 percent quarter-to-quarter nosedive during the second quarter of Great Recession-y 2009. And because the gap between these two results remains so big, it will be fascinating to see the numbers for the second quarter, when impact of mandated shutdown of much of the economy will first become apparent.

The quarterly decrease in total real exports for the first quarter is now judged to be 2.33 percent (non-annualized – as are the following numbers). This decline is worse than that estimated in the two previous first quarter GDP reports (2.24 percent and 2.25 percent, respectively). But as with the trade deficit figures, this slump pales with that suffered the last time constant dollar goods and services exports dropped significantly – the 8.08 percent crash dive during the first quarter of 2009, during the depths of that Great Recession.

On the import side, the 4.17 percent sequential price-adjusted fall-off reported this morning was bigger than either the 4.12 percent decrease previously judged and the 4.08 percent initially estimated. Again, however, that was the biggest such decline since a Great Recession result that was much greater – the 9.88 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2009.

The “final” first quarter figure for the inflation-adjusted goods deficit ($996.8 billion annualized) was 7.64 percent lower than the fourth quarter figure. But in services, the real surplus widened by 1.22 percent – even though the super-sector’s exports plummeted by nine percent. The first quarter annualized total of $714.9 billion annualized was the meagerest since the $706.2 billion level for the fourth quarter of 2013, and the rate of decline (much greater than the 0.49 percent in goods exports) was the fastest ever in a data series going back to 2002. In fact, the previous record was only 2.95 percent (during the Great Recession-y first quarter of 2009) – as with the export figures underscoring the outsized impact of the CCP virus’ impact on the travel industry.

Similar trends can be seen in after-inflation services imports. which sank by a record 8.06 percent in the quarter – much faster than the 3.19 percent fall in goods imports.

Im-Politic: How Much Did the Lockdowns Really Help?

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African Americans, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, economy, Georgia, hospitalizations, Im-Politic, lockdowns, public health, reopening, shutdown, Virginia, Washington Post, Wuhan virus

Is it time to start putting the CCP Virus economy-reopening debate shoe on the other foot, at least when it comes to one key measure of progress or backsliding against the pandemic? More specifically, is it time to put less emphasis on finding out whether states that have reopened relatively quickly have seen their virus situations worsening, and more on whether states that closed early and/or have stayed largely closed have achieved progress that’s been any better?

This question occurred to me this morning upon reading in my Washington Post that when it comes to new infections and fatalities, Virginia has just seen record highs recently whether we’re talking about single day totals or the more informative seven-day averages. That’s striking because Virginia has been one of those states that shutdown substantially quite early, and has reopened very slowly.

So I began wondering how Virginia’s record compares with a state that reopened very early – Georgia. And the numbers clearly show that their performances over the most relevant timeframes have been…pretty comparable. Which represents new evidence that the economically devastating lockdowns have been under-performers for containing the virus’ spread.

Virginia and Georgia are particularly interesting to compare because of their similarities. The latter’s total population is estimated this year at 8.63 million while the latter’s is a not greatly bigger 10.74 million.

Both states also have relatively big populations of African-Americans – who have been among the virus’ biggest victims. Blacks represent 31.03 percent of all Georgians, and 18.81 percent of all Virginians.

That Washington Post Virginia article did mention one area of continuing improvement for the state: new hospitalizations. They’re especially important both because fears of hospitals getting overwhelmed by the pandemic were prime justifications for the original shutdown orders, and because they’re the best measures of whether the virus is being contained or not. After all, numbers or new cases seem to depend heavily on increases in testing (which naturally reveal more and more infections). And controversies over identifying genuine CCP Virus-induced deaths remain heated – in large part because methodologies vary so greatly state-by-state.

By contrast, there have been no debates over how many patients with virus symptoms have been admitted to healthcare facilities. The only uncertainties are those stemming from how promptly these facilities report their admissions to state health departments.

That kind of uncertainty is still clouding Virginia’s data. As of today, (see this link and scroll down till you see the option for hospitalization data) the state has only reported new hospitalizations through May 20, and these data are divided between confirmed cases and probably cases. (The former are the great majority, though.)

Even so, because of Virginia’s lockdown policy – which began in earnest at the end of March, began easing in phases for the state’s least populous areas in mid-May, but which largely continue for its most populous areas (those closest to the District of Columbia)– it should be among the gold standard states for virus progress if turning off most economic activity is considered crucial. (Here’s an unusually informative lockdown timeline for Virginia, Maryland, and the District.)

Its interactive hospitalization chart is a little hard to read, but it seems to show that on March 31, the seven-day moving average of new admissions stood at just under 59, and through early May (when the lockdown began to be lifted). moved up steadily to a little over 81. So they rose by just under 39 percent. By May 20, this average had decreased all the way to just under 45. In other words, daily hospitalizations dropped by a little less than 45 percent. And for the entire period, the seven-day moving average for new hospitalizations dipped by 2.34 percent.

Georgia’s lockdown began only a bit later than Maryland’s (on April 2) but serious easing began much earlier (on April 24). Indeed, Governor Brian Kemp was widely pilloried for the decision.

During its three weeks of lockdown, Georgia’s seven-day average daily hospitalization numbers went from about 80 to about 130. (The non-interactive chart below is even harder to read precisely than Virginia’s interactive graphic, but check it out for yourself below.)

This roughly 62.50 percent rise in daily hospitalizations was much higher than Virginia’s during its lockdown period Did this discrepancy mean that Georgia ended its lockdown too soon? Or was its somewhat heavier African-American population density the major difference? Search me.

Georgia’s reopening has been more aggressive than Virginia’s, and that could well explain why its seven-day average hospitalization figure remained just about flat from the start of this phase through May 22.

But I’m not entirely persuaded that the lack of improvement during this period means that Georgia’s relatively fast reopening has flopped. Because for the first three weeks of this reopening, the state’s seven-day average new hospitalization figure fell by about half – faster than Virginia’s during its slower reopening. And as the Post has reported, despite Virginia’s caution, daily (although not yet seven-day averages) have been rising recently, too.

The fairest conclusion to me seems that the hospitalization data give an edge to Virginia’s more cautious lockdown-reopening strategy, but that the edge is on the modest side. And most important, it’s far from clear that this margin justifies both the economic and healthcare costs of relatively longer and/or more thorough lockdowns.

 

 

Im-Politic: The CCP Virus Crisis Has Become Even More of a Nursing Home Crisis

Tags

Canada, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Europe, Following Up, lockdown, nursing homes, reopening, seniors, shutdown, Sweden, The New York Times, United Kingdom, Wuhan virus

About three weeks ago, I posted about the degree to which total U.S. CCP Virus-related deaths were occurring in nursing homes and other special facilities for seniors. And I noted that the answer – “really big” – provided significant evidence for the idea that substantial reopenings of the U.S. economy were much more feasible than widely believed.

The reason: If the virus’ main dangers were so highly concentrated in a single, highly vulnerable, and already confined population, then by definition, such dangers to the rest of the public were considerably less serious than widely believed. Therefore, relatively low-risk populations could be permitted to reengage in normal economic activity sooner rather than later.

Three weeks later, the case for faster, wider reopenings is even stronger – along with the arguments for focusing virus containment measures on seniors, and especially those inside or outside such facilities.

For example, that previous post cited data indicating that about twenty percent of all U.S. virus deaths were taking place in elder care facilities. More recently, a comprehensive New York Times survey pegged the share at 35 percent.

Moreover, data are coming in making clear that this pattern is hardly confined to the United States. In Canada, the share has been reported at 81 percent. Across Europe, national shares are thought to be between 42 percent and 57 percent. In the United Kingdom, it’s estimated at 25 percent.

Possibly the most intriguing findings concern Sweden. That’s because its lockdown was the lightest imposed among the wealthier national economies. The overall Swedish virus death rates, however, have been right in the middle of the pack for Europe.  (See here for the latest numbers.) Yet the Swedish government has also reported that nearly half those deaths have taken place in elder care facilities.

In other words, if Sweden had its nursing home act together, its virus fatalities would have been about 185 per million people – which would have put it well behind the United States, Spain, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. Sweden’s economy, unfortunately, seems unlikely to escape taking a major virus-related economic hit anyway. But the toll seems largely due to its relatively small size and as a result its relatively heavy reliance on foreign trade – not to its failure to shut down more broadly.

The United States, of course, is much less reliant on foreign trade. In theory, then, if its nursing and similar facilities get the aid they need, America’s economy can continue reopening – and even faster than at present – without running major further health risks. Indeed, as I’ve also noted previously, such reopening per se could well curb other emerging public health dangers. Moreover, as observed by the Washington Post editorial board, moving toward the Swedish model might speed up progress toward creating herd immunity in the United States. This status would mean considerable protection against the second virus wave that might arrive along with cooler weather this fall.

As always, “reopening” doesn’t mean an immediate, complete return to the pre-virus normal. And serious uncertainties continue surrounding the nursing homes data, and indeed all virus-related data. But a pattern visible in so many high income countries can’t be dismissed, either, and it should put ever more pressure on backers of slower reopenings to justify their positions.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: A Respectable Case for Optimism?

Tags

CCP Virus, China, consumer confidence, consumers, coronavirus, COVID 19, Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, lockdown, recovery, reopening, restart, restaurants, retail, second wave, shutdown, social distancing, Sweden, testing, vaccines, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

At the risk of being (undeservedly) tarred as a CCP Virus pollyanna, I can’t help but being struck by the some new evidence that the U.S. economy’s recovery from its pandemic-induced swoon will be faster than widely feared. In fact, I still share these fears to some degree. But I can’t ignore increasing signs to the contrary.

To be clear, this evidence has little to do with the subject of yesterday’s post. Just because data can be cited showing significant national progress in beating back the virus threat doesn’t necessarily mean that a more so-called “V-shaped” economic rebound is on the way. The same goes for the impact of this progress on the economy reopening decisions of individual U.S. states – even though the more decline seen in numbers of new cases (despite gains in testing that should be revealing much more infection), numbers of deaths, and numbers of virus-related hospitalizations, the more reopening obviously will be seen.

Nor are my views being shaped by the strong rebound seen in U.S. stock markets so far (including today so far), or by the newly bullish recovery views voiced last night on “Sixty Minutes” by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. And this post isn’t even driven by the latest news about vaccine progress (though such reports will clearly help as long as the results continue being validated).

The reason: I’ve been convinced that the key to the recovery’s strength will be Americans’ willingness to start patronizing businesses in an economy where most activity – and most income earning opportunities – depend on consumer spending. So I’ve put considerable stock in predictions that, even though all the objective conditions can show that a return to normality will be safe, too many Americans will remain too fearful to boost the economy significantly.

I also take seriously the idea that all the restrictions on visiting retail stores (including restaurants) and personal service businesses will limit their customer flow either simply by forcing them to operate substantially below capacity, or by dissuading many customers from visiting in the first place, and thereby sharply reducing impulse consuming. Further, I’m well aware that the much more modest shock administered to Americans by the Great Recession triggered by the 2007-08 financial crisis was painfully slow to wear off. (See here and here where I write about reasons for recovery pessimism.)

In addition, the experiences of other countries that started reopening earlier has reenforced consumer caution concerns. Sweden, for example, has imposed fewer economic restrictions than any other major country. But this survey by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. reports that consumer spending has dropped significantly anyway, and may not recover for months. China claims that it’s beaten the virus and its regime has been easing factory lockdowns since February. But as of late April, retail sales were still way down.

Finally, there’s the second wave threat, which could kneecap the economy as temperatures start dropping in the fall even if summer does witness a decent bounce back toward pre-virus consuming.

So the case against a relatively quick recovery with real legs is still awfully strong.

But don’t overlook reasons for more optimism. One that’s nothing less than amazing: The piece in this morning’s Washington Post reporting that even though virus testing is now much more widely available in the United States than previously, Americans are far from rushing to capitalize on these opportunities. Even accepting the various reasons offered in this article (e.g., not enough Americans know that the situation has changed; there’s too much mistrust of medical providers in some U.S. communities, particularly African-Americans), it’s difficult at least for me to conclude anything else but that many in the United States simply aren’t concerned enough about the pandemic to take this precaution. After all, if they were panic-stricken, wouldn’t they be following every bit of news about the supply of tests with baited breath?

Perhaps more important, the more news that emerges that the CCP Virus is much less lethal than early reports suggested, the (understandably) less concerned about infection more and more Americans seem to be.    

Then there are all the reports of Americans, whether in states that have eased lockdowns more vigorously and those that haven’t, violating social distance guidelines, either by not wearing masks where they’re supposed to, or seemingly ignoring social distancing rules in public place – and indeed returning to restaurants and bars and beaches in pretty impressive numbers. These reports are anecdotal, and therefore should be viewed with lots of caution. Also, please don’t assume that I’m endorsing this behavior! But there sure seems to be a lot of it, these reports also seem related to growing evidence of the virus’ relatively modest death rates, and and as an old adage goes, when enough anecdotes appear, they become data. 

Finally are several indicators pointing to an actual, non-trivial comeback in economic activity, and for a variety of sectors. This account mentions encouraging signs from the tech sector to the automotive industry. This article presents evidence of bottoming even in hard-hit bricks and mortars retail stores and restaurants. And click here for information on the housing industry.

Of course, the references above to “bottoming” could still be entirely consistent with pessimistic predictions of a painfully slow climb back to pre-virus prosperity. But I still find myself wondering if, having seen the overpoweringly depressive effect of various official edicts literally to halt and outlaw much economic activity, Americans might experience a reasonably powerful growth effect from their withdrawal – not to mention declining fears that infection is a death sentence.

Im-Politic: Some Winning Anti-Virus Numbers

Tags

CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Im-Politic, lockdown, reopening, shutdown, Wuhan virus

As well known by RealityChek regulars, I’m a strong believer in looking at the most detailed data possible in order to understand a development or situation best. (Just yesterday, they got a great example, in this post on the latest official figures on America’s manufacturing production.)

Sometimes, though, it’s helpful to get out of the weeds. And a loftier perspective seems necessary on the coronavirus crisis and the heated debate over how fast to open the U.S. economy. Of course, because the reopening is taking place on a state-by-state basis, and because even the earliest opening states have by no means restarted their economies all the way right away, the national picture, paradoxically, isn’t the whole picture.

All the same, because the main debate is clearly between those who would go slow (at best) on the one hand, and those who would go relatively quickly on the other, it’s unmistakably useful to review the progress (or lack of progress) made by the United States as a whole. And according to the figures below, it’s been impressive, however sluggishly it began.

Let’s start with the virus death count – of most urgent concern to everyone especially if a loved one has fallen sick. I couldn’t find a chart that could be cut and pasted here, but if you look at The New York Times tracker here, you’ll see that the seven-day average of new daily deaths (the best way to monitor trends over time) peaked on April 17 at 2,362. As of this past Friday, it stook at 1,563.  That’s a reduction of more than a third – not at all bupkis.

Now let’s look at the daily change in the numbers of reported U.S. cases.  This chart comes from the Vox.com news site, and also makes clear a steady dropoff: today: 

Now let’s look at the testing figures, which also come from Vox. Keep in mind that the number of confirmed cases will logically rise as testing increases: 

 

The clear message here is that the numbers of reported cases keep falling even as testing keeps rising. That’s hard to beat for (realistic) good news in this virus era.

Finally, here’s data straight from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showing the CCP Virus burden on the American healthcare system.  It presents the weekly change in the share of national emergency room visits accounted for by patients with flu-like illnesses (the blue line) and by patients with specific CCP Virus-like illnesses (the orange-y line). 

This statistic is especially important because a major original rationale for the shutdowns was to prevent virus cases from mushrooming so that the nation’s hospitals would be overwhelmed.  This chart only goes up to May 2, but those are major decreases over the preceding six weeks (which brings us back to mid-March.)     

I’m sure as heck not going to shout “Mission accomplished” when it comes to the CCP Virus crisis. And no one can forget the major uncertainties still surrounding the cases and fatalities numbers – according to various critics, on the overcount and the undercount sides.

But given the progress made so far, given the lack of evidence of any worsening of the situation in states that have reopened on the aggressive side (see, e.g., this post), and given the fearsome public health toll sure to result from prolonged national economic paralysis, it seems fair to say that at least some of the burden of proof in the shutdown-versus-restart arguments has shifted to the former. 

Making News: Breitbart Interview Podcast Now On-Line on the Virus and Economic Reopening

Tags

Breitbart News Tonight, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, economy, John Binder, lockdown, Making News, pandemic, Rebecca Mansour, reopening, restart, shutdown, stay-at-home, Wuhan virus

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast of an interview last night on “Breitbart News Tonight” is now on-line. Click here and scroll down till you see my name for a timely, lively discussion with co-hosts Rebecca Mansour and John Binder on when and how the U.S. economy can reopen even as the CCP Virus pandemic continues.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Im-Politic: Why Michigan’s Gov. Whitmer Has Blown It on the CCP Virus

Tags

CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Gretchen Whitmer, Im-Politic, lockdown, Michigan, shelter-in-place, shutdown, stay-at-home, Wuhan virus

Michigan and its Democratic Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, have been the epicenter of the U.S. national debate about whether and how fast to reopen economic activity in this CCP Virus era. And when you take a look at the state’s inspection patterns, it’s tough to avoid concluding that, although many of those protesting the various economic restrictions she’s ordered since the first Michigan cases were reported on March 10 blew it in terms of brandishing firearms, her virus economy policies have been way too indiscriminate. (Interestingly, claims that the protesters flagrantly ignored social distancing practices seem to have been exaggerated, at least in this key instance.)  

No one can doubt that Michigan has a serious CCP Virus problem. Yet its predicament isn’t in the category of that being experienced in particular by New York and neighboring states whose counties comprise the New York City metropolitan area. As of this morning, Michigan ranks eleventh in the nation (including the District of Columbia) in virus cases per million population, and sixth in deaths per million.

But the statewide figures are far from the whole story. For instance, of Michigan’s 43,754 total virus cases as of today so far, the Detroit metropolitan area (comprising the city and three surrounding – and in the case of Wayne, overlapping, counties), accounts for 30,752. That’s just under 70 percent. That same Detroit area, though, represents only a little less than 39 percent of the state’s population. (The detailed Michigan virus data are found here, and the detailed Michigan population figures come from here and here.)

The situation with deaths shows an even greater disparity. The Detroit area’s 3,278 comprise nearly 81 percent of the state total.

Meanwhile, of Michigan’s 83 counties, 18 have registered ten or fewer virus cases, 49 have suffered five or fewer deaths, and 20 of those 49 have recorded no deaths.

Generally, of course, these lightly touched counties are among the state’s least populous. But that’s the point. Clearly, Michigan is a very heterogeneous state, and what’s good for Baraga and Luce counties, e.g. (one reported case and no deaths for each) isn’t good for Detroit or neighboring Macomb County. Whitmer  backtracked a bit recently.  Had she had recognized these vast differences sooner, she could have saved her constituents and herself a lot of grief.  And the flaws in her pretty much all-or-nothing approach have plenty of lessons to teach other state and federal policymakers, too.  

Im-Politic: A (Huge) Nursing Home Factor in U.S. Virus Deaths

Tags

ABC News, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, demographics, Europe, Im-Politic, lockdown, long-term care facilities, nursing homes, reopening, restart, seniors, shutdown, WHO, World Health Organization, Wuhan virus

Whenever I hear about a CCP Virus outbreak at a nursing home or similar seniors facility, I wonder how these especially tragic episodes have been influencing the national data. The issue matters greatly, because the numbers could reveal much about the virus’ spread and virulence among Americans not so aged and confined – i.e., the vast majority of the population.

Of course, avoidable and unavoidable testing shortcomings are making all the statistics dodgy.  And state and local authorities’ standards for identifying and reporting CCP Virus cases – and therefore deaths – are both highly diverse and constantly changing.  What’s emerged so far, though, shows that nursing homes and the like are indeed where the disease’s worst effects are appearing, and by wide margins. As a result, however, these statistics also strongly indicate that the virus is much less dangerous for other Americans than originally thought.

The most comprehensive picture we have of nursing homes’ role has come from ABC News. Its examination of state-level numbers concluded that, as of yesterday, at least 10,631 of nationwide CCP Virus-induced fatalities had been long-term care residents. That’s about a fifth of the U.S. total. But the “at least” in the previous sentence is really important. For the ABC numbers are based on information from only 28 of the states plus the District of Columbia. That leaves the nursing homes’ share of fatalities unknown for 22 states. ABC didn’t say which states were and weren’t included in the count, but it’s almost certain that the more state figures are examined, the higher the nursing home share will rise.

One reason for confidence in this conclusion: The World Health Organization (WHO) stated on Thursday that as many as half of all of Europe’s coronavirus-related deaths have occurred in long-term care facilities. Of course, WHO’s performance during the pandemic has been roundly criticized. But you have to assume that it’s found it much easier getting reliable data from Europe than from dangerously secretive China.

It’s also important to note that Europe’s populations are significantly older than the United States’, which no doubt explains much of that towering European estimate. In addition, Europe was hit by the virus earlier. But along with the incomplete nature of the U.S. data, the the demographic gap is narrow enough to suggest that nursing home residents’ share of American deaths will continue growing.     

Combined with mounting evidence (see, e.g., here and here) that the CCP Virus has infected many more Americans than first estimated – meaning that the disease’s lethality looks considerably lower than once feared – the apparent concentration in nursing homes is unquestionably good news for most of the nation (except, of course, if any of your loved ones lives in these facilities). One possible implication:  With the right, targeted, precautions, a more extensive earlier reopening of the U.S. economy is warranted. The bad news, however, is that the virus’ impact is most deadly in one of America’s most vulnerable populations. Let’s all hope that, if this finding holds up, one result will be more mitigation where it’s needed most.

What’s Left of) Our Economy: Not All CCP Virus Lessons are Created Equal

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CCP Virus, CNBC, Congress, coronavirus, COVID 19, Federal Reserve, Joseph Stiglitz, lockdown, Patricia Cohen, Paul M. Krugman, safety net, shutdown, social insurance, The New York Times, Trump, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Thanks to a late start, just a quickie, today – but still important because it demonstrates the dodgy nature of two increasingly widespread claims during this CCP Virus emergency: first, that the suffering of so many Americans due to the health and economic damage done by the virus demonstrates how lousy the country’s social safety net is; and second, that its impact on employment in particular and the resulting damage to the finances of so many individuals and families shows how fragile – and even phony – much pre-virus national well-being actually was.

The first claim was made notably by Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist Paul M. Krugman. Now I know that I’ve labeled him a reflexive Never Trumper, I know I’ve taken him to task for many major blunders (at least as I see them), and I know we’ve crossed swords – angrily – in print. But I really do believe this contention about a major lesson being taught by the pandemic, made in a CNBC interview on Friday, was way off-base:

“…what we’re seeing is that our safety net has big, big holes in it.”

No one can reasonably believe that all the actual virus damage done will be healed or the potential damage done prevented even by the historically unprecedented (by a mile) sums of various kinds of virus relief approved by Congress and President Trump. Ditto for the comparably huge, unprecedented economy backstops provided by the Federal Reserve.

But think of it this way: If, after he asteroid strike that wiped out the dinosaurs, would it have been reasonable for someone or something to observe, “What we’re seeing is that those species really had some major defects”? Of course not. Especially since the dinosaurs had been the planet’s dominant life form for literally hundreds of millions of years.

So they couldn’t survive a literal out-of-the-blue (though over incredibly long time-frames precedented and predictable) natural disaster. Does this mean – and I realize this is a weird concept outside an “argument’s sake” framework – that evolution did a lousy job? Of course not.

The rest of Krugman’s statement is much less absurd:

“[N]ormally we think of this as being a problem of protecting people or redistributing to people who are persistently disadvantaged, which is very important. But right now what we’re seeing is something that is more sort of, even within classes, is very uneven. If you happen to be working in the restaurant industry, if you happen to be working in the travel industry, your entire basis of sustenance is gone, whereas if you happen to be employed in a sector which is not affected by this, this is annoying but not really all the bad. So what we need is basically – social insurance is what we talk about, and we’re seeing a real demonstration how important it is that we have a system for dealing with really disaster relief where the disaster is on a scale that we’ve never seen before.”rk 

Specifically, it makes perfect sense to want to insure against a wider range of potential calamities than currently planned for by America’s current system. It makes just as much sense to support more insurance for the economic and natural disasters already planned for. But creating enough insurance to shield the entire economy against what Krugman himself has likened to an “induced coma”? Because “We’ve deliberately shut down a large part of the economy”? And which Krugman calls “like nothing we’ve seen before”? That’s a qualitatively different challenge, and the case for the kinds of spending that would be required – and the kind of combination of taxes and debt creation needed to pay for it – is anything but obvious.

The argument about the virus showing the economy to have been surprisingly, and unacceptably, weak before this biological invasion suffers the same kinds of problems. Its best example has been this New York Times article, whose theme is described by the subhead: “The coronavirus pandemic has shown how close to the edge many Americans were living, with pay and benefits eroding even as corporate profits surged.”

For good measure, reporter Patricia Cohen (who’s a distant personal acquaintance) threw in a Krugman-like safety net observation from another Nobel Prize-winning liberal economist, Joseph Stiglitz: “We built an economy with no shock absorbers. We made a system that looked like it was maximizing profits but had higher risks and lower resiliency.”     

But Cohen’s main point was the (related) contention that the crisis “has revealed  [a series of additional] profound, longstanding vulnerabilities in the economic system

The same “asteroid” question, however, needs to be asked? Close to the edge of something legitimately qualifying as an Act of God? Or maybe more prosaically, the kind of “force majeure” event that can lead to the cancellation of legal contracts because circumstances beyond anyone’s control render the deal unenforceable in any real-world sense?

Sure, too many Americans spend too much and save too little – sometimes because they need to to get by, and sometimes because they’re irresponsible. (And as with much of life, often it’s a little of both. Moreover, let’s not let off the hook an easy money-addicted political and economic policy system, which has so powerfully encouraged over-spending at least since the dangerously bubbly economic expansion that preceded the 2007-08 financial crisis.)

But the virus damage so far has been so severe and widespread that it’s clearly – as Krugman noted above – caught short many Americans who had been handling their finances with admirable prudence

As for Cohen’s finding that the crisis has thrown into sharp relief the vulnerabilities of “even middle-class Americans, once snugly secure, [who] have become increasingly anxious in recent decades about their own fragile finances and their children’s prospects,” that sounds like a line from a Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren campaign ad.  The problem, of course, is that poll after poll has told us that before the virus struck, large majorities of Americans were feeling just fine about their personal finances and prospects.  

I have no doubt that the virus is going to wind up teaching Americans and their leaders many valuable lessons. But as the two above examples should make clear, not all supposed lessons are created equal. And be doubly wary of supposed lessons that, at least in the case of Krugman and Stiglitz, ostensibly validate ideas the teachers have held since long before anyone ever heard of a coronavirus.