(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite Marriage Equality Ruling, it’s Still the Economy….

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China, debt, euro, Eurozone, Financial Crisis, gay marriage, Great Recession, Greece, Lehman Brothers, LGBT, marriage equality, Obergefell vs Hodges, political correctness, Puerto Rico, punditocracy, recovery, stock market bubble, Supreme Court, {What's Left of) Our Economy

For the last two days I’ve been commenting on social issues – kind of a departure from my usual focus on economics and foreign policy, but worth doing as I saw it because the Supreme Court’s marriage equality raised so many issues that are both intrinsically interesting to me, and that bear importantly on the nature of our American society and political community. Over the last twenty-four hours, though, have come reminders – in the form of the (seemingly) climaxing Greece crisis and the deflation of China’s stock market bubble – that if the country doesn’t get its economics and finances right, none of that’s going to matter much.

Not that you would have gotten any sense of that from the major TV and cable talk shows yesterday. I saw every one of them except for CNN’s version, and I don’t believe the words “Greece” or “China” were even uttered. The Court’s Obamacare ruling got a fair amount of air time – but not because it will crucially impact a huge and growing share of our economy. Instead, the focus was on the decision as one sign of what a terrific week the president enjoyed, and what a pickle this (supposedly) creates for Republicans.

As the Beltway-centric punditocracy saw it, the mega-story was marriage equality – which should make clear that its worldview is grossly distorted by its cloistered collective life inside a media (and connected academic-arts-entertainment) bubble in which gays are robustly represented. After all, though the Obergefell vs Hodges ruling was a major social and cultural landmark for Americans, and will dramatically affect LGBT citizens, the latter comprise less than four percent of the U.S. population according to the best estimates. So it’s time to curb at least some of the euphoria touched off by Obergefell outside the LGBT community.

As for the alarm bells that have been ringing: First, many Americans who aren’t straight won’t choose marriage in the first place, much less child rearing. What of worries that the decision will set off an explosion of other kinds of nontraditional marriages, and foster the kind of child abuse strongly linked with polygamy? That very danger will naturally create a firewall against such units adopting or having test-tube kids that simply can’t be justified for LGBT couples and the loving, responsible parenting so many have been providing (and that we’re not seeing from too many traditionally married couples).

Nor do I see any threat to freedom of religion or conscience. If you didn’t approve of non-traditional marriage before the Court ruled, you’re just as free to disapprove today, and to express this disapproval. Your place of worship is just as free to preach against it, as will religious and other private schools. Businesses that oppose it will continue to be free to refuse to provide goods or services that would require them to participate or be present at weddings or other ceremonies or events they abhor. But they will rightly be required to serve LGBT customers at their place of business – including public officials who issue marriage licenses. If your faith now prevents you from signing forms that authorize LGBT couples to wed, you’re in the wrong job.

I can sympathize with marriage equality critics who are uncomfortable with the idea that LGBT Americans will assume a higher profile in the nation’s daily life, and who resent being labeled (often wrongly) as homophobes and, more broadly, “haters.” But ironically, they’re also sounding like the lefty political correctness types who favor turning offended sensibilities into a major criterion for limiting speech and other forms of free expression – or actual behavior. That’s the road to pervasive censorship and social controls that are thoroughly and dangerously un-American. Like the PC crowd, marriage equality critics are simply going to have to toughen their skins. In particular, if you want to air your views in public, rough pushback is often the price you pay. P.S. If you have real faith in your convictions, it shouldn’t be such a big deal.

Meanwhile, the future of the world’s biggest currency area – the Eurozone – is completely up in the air over the Greece crisis, and most of the world’s major private sector financial institutions (including America’s) are exposed directly or indirectly. Moreover, in the world’s second largest national economy, one of the most mammoth stock market bubbles in recent history is deflating – and the emerging Chinese stock bust could burst other immense bubbles Beijing’s economic policies have helped inflate.

Not that I’m predicting imminent apocalypse, or even a new Lehman Brothers moment, from either development (or even combined with the distinct possibility of a debt default by Puerto Rico). But when I think of how further national and global financial instability could affect an already under-performing, heavily indebted U.S. economy, and compare that with the fallout from the marriage equality decision, it seems clear that everyone should start leaving Obergefell in the rear-view mirror.

Im-Politic: On Liberals, Trusting Presidents, and Trade

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1990s expansion, 2000s recession, AFL-CIO, Asian financial crisis, Bill Clinton, China, Congress, Democrats, fast track, House of Representatives, Im-Politic, Jobs, liberals, manufacturing, Obama, stock market bubble, tech bubble, TPA, Trade, Trade Promotion Authority, unions, wages, World Trade Organization

Given the pronounced leftward shift evident recently in the ranks of Democrats in the House of Representatives, last Thursday’s “final” (for now) vote for “fast track” trade negotiating authority for President Obama makes clear that at least 28 of these Congress Members believe that current trade strategies are entirely compatible with their stated aims of boosting MainStreet America’s fortunes. I hope they’ll read over this speech given in 1997 by President Bill Clinton to an AFL-CIO convention. It explains clearly why these beliefs are delusional, and why presidents who try to reinforce them don’t deserve their trust.

Mr. Obama knows he needs at least a sliver of House Democrats to ensure passage of fast track – which would prevent Congress from amending any trade agreements he brings before it, as well as sharply curb debate. So he’s repeatedly sent progressive groups the message that such agreements will actually benefit working class and middle class Americans, and that, further, he’s proved his progressive bona fides beyond reasonable doubt by championing any number of domestic programs to enable the “99 percent” to take full advantage. In the president’s words:

“Smart, new, 21st century trade agreements are as important to helping the middle class get ahead in this new economy as things like job training, and higher education, and affordable health care.  They’re all part of a package.”

And he continued, in this April 23 speech, “I mean, think about it.  I’ve got some of these folks who are friends of mine, allies of mine saying this trade deal would destroy the American working families, despite the fact that I’ve done everything in my power to make sure that working families are empowered.  And, by the way, they’ve been with me on everything.”

Now flash back 18 years. In 1997, President Clinton was seeking fast track, too, and realized he needed at least some backing from his biggest constituencies to the left of center. He was also clearly just as worried as Mr. Obama about threats by unions in particular to work to unseat Congressional Democrats who supported the trade measures that labor detested.

So he told AFL delegates that his trade policies – including NAFTA – were “about how we can best seize our opportunities in the economy that is emerging, and how 4 percent of the world’s people can continue to maintain 20 to 22 percent of the world’s wealth, and continue to grow the economy so incomes can rise and new jobs can be created.”

Clinton went on to insist that “we share too many values and priorities to let this disagreement damage our partnership. You just think of all of the things that I reeled off that we’ve done together and all of the things we’ve stood against in the last five years. I have worked to make this economy work for middle-class Americans. I care about making sure everybody has a chance and making sure nobody is left behind. But I can’t build a better future without the tools to do the job, and America can’t lead if it’s bringing up the rear.

“At the moment of our greatest economic success in an entire generation, we shouldn’t be reluctant about the future; we ought to seize it and shape it. And I think I also have to say to you that there are a lot of good members of Congress who agree with me about our trade policy who also stood for the minimum wage. They agree with me about our trade policy, but they fought to provide health care for 5 million more kids. They support open trade, but they also fought to protect Medicare and Medicaid and education and the environment, and to open the doors of college to all Americans.

“And when the majority in Congress wanted to do so, they stood against them and fought with you against the Contract on America. They fought with you against attempts to repeal the prevailing wage laws, to weaken unions and workplace health and safety laws. They did so in the face of intense pressure. They have fought for you and for all working people, and they deserve our support. If they were to lose their positions because they stood up for what they believe was right for America’s future, who would replace them, and how much harder would it be to get the necessary votes in Congress to back the President when he stands by you [emphasis added] against the majority?”

Clinton, it must be remembered, lost the fast track vote that year, and was denied the authority in 1998 as well. But this avowed champion of working class Americans went on to press (successfully) for admitting China into the World Trade Organization, and when the Asian financial crisis struck in the late-1990s, kept U.S. markets wide open to Asian exports. Both these policies added powerfully to downward pressures on middle class manufacturing jobs and their high wages. Clinton escaped much blame back then because the interlocking technology and stock market bubbles created enough growth and employment to mask these more enduring losses.

When the ’90s high came to an abrupt end with the early 2000s recession, the middle class and especially manufacturing workers were hit especially hard, and the historic (for an expansion) employment and pay hits the latter kept suffering showed how greatly,and structurally, the Clinton trade policies damaged their fortunes.

Since hope springs eternal, and should never be dismissed out of hand, what would be understandable would be for House Democratic supporters of fast track to acknowledge the recent past, but to hold that This Time it’s Different. What would not be understandable would be for them to fail to explain exactly why.