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Making News: Back on National Radio on Banning TikTok & Other Decoupling from China

14 Wednesday Dec 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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Byte Dance, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, China, decoupling, export controls, Gordon G. Chang, Making News, national security, privacy, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, semiconductors, social media, tech, TikTok

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to be back tonight to the nationally syndicated “CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor.” Our subject – a raft of recent and proposed U.S. government moves to decouple the nation’s economy from China’s, including legislation to ban the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok.

The segment, which also features co-host Gordon G. Chang, is slated to be broadcast at 10 PM EST. But the entire program is always compelling, and you can listen live at links like this. As always, moreover, I’ll post a link to the podcast as soon as one’s available.

And keep on checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

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Following Up: Podcast Now On-Line of National Radio Interview on U.S.-China Economic & Tech Relations

27 Thursday Oct 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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Biden administration, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, China, export controls, Following Up, Gordon G. Chang, microchips, nationalsecurity, Party Congress, tech, Trade, Xi JInPing

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast of my interview last night on the nationally syndicated “CBS Eye on the World” with John Batchelor is now on-line.

Click here for a timely discussion, with co-host Gordon G. Chang, of how the results of the just-concluded Chinese Communist Party’s annual congress will impact U.S. trade with the People’s Republic, and whether the Biden administration’s major new measures will adequately slow China’s drive to achieve global technology leadership..

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: For Banning All U.S. High Tech Sales to China

24 Monday Oct 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Our So-Called Foreign Policy

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Biden administration, China, Chips Act, Defense Department, export controls, national security, Our So-Called Foreign Policy, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, semiconductors, tech

Just as my good buddy Ace recently gave me a great idea for a post on U.S. Ukraine policy, my equally good buddy Swifty (a finance guy) yesterday gave me an equally great idea – about how to ensure that U.S. curbs on sales of high tech equipment to China really put the hammer on the semiconductor industry being built in the People’s Republic. And interestingly, it mirrors an idea that I proposed many years ago for America’s human rights policy – government compensation for American-owned firms that lose business due to such limits.

In recent months, Washington has made major – albeit incredibly belated – progress in cutting off such American aid to Chinese tech manufacturers, whose burgeoning capabilities of course will boost China’s military power and potential. Important restrictions on what U.S.- and foreign-owned businesses can supply to China’s microchip entities are contained both in the bill signed by President Biden to boost semiconductor manufacturing in the United States, and in a sweeping set of restrictions on what both U.S.- and foreign-owned firms can supply to China’s microchip entities.

But even if these new policies are adequately enforced – always a big question surrounding American efforts slow China’s tech progress – they suffer two related weaknesses stemming from their tight focus on the highest end semiconductors and the equipment needed to make them. First, the vast majority of chips in use today – including in military systems – are lower-tech, so-called “legacy” chips, and China’s growing presence in the global market for these devices can create dangerous vulnerabilities itself.

Second, any sales of the machinery and software needed to make these legacy chips is bound to wind up helping teach Chinese scientists and engineers how to make their more advanced counterparts.

And this is where Swifty’s idea comes in. As he noted, it needs to be America’s goal to cripple China’s ability to make any type of semiconductor, and to completely shut down its learning opportunities. The big obstacle to imposing the broader controls needed to achieve this goal? The fact that this step would drive U.S.-owned companies that make semiconductor manufacturing equipment out of one of their biggest markets.

Swifty’s recommendation? Compensate them for these losses – at least until they can recoup them by selling to friendly countries to which chip production that’s under pressure from U.S. restrictions moves from China. He adds that such payments would be eminently affordable.

After all, even though the China market is enormously important to these firms, the China revenues they say they’ll lose are drops in the bucket compared with the mammoth scale of overall U.S. government spending, and even of the U.S. defense budget. (For some company-specific figures, see, e.g., here and here.)

That last point is particularly critical. For knee-capping China’s tech prowess is vital to U.S. national security. So think of these payments as defense spending – since it’s at least as important to prevent China from deploying lots of high tech weapons on the battlefield in the first place as to develop ways to fight them on the battlefield.

This national security perspective also matters greatly for dealing with another possible outcome of this greatly escalated U.S. strategy of denial – sabotage by American allies whose tech companies try to take advantage of U.S.-owned firms’ exit from China. Although the Biden administration has given some of them temporary exemptions, so far, the rest seem to be abiding by the new Biden administration rules – even in one case in which a loophole may well exist. But if they balk at wider restrictions, they should be told that their actions could wind up enabling Chinese forces to kill Americans in combat, and that they can’t expect continued U.S. protection if they persist. 

Way back in the early 1980s, I wrote that if the United States was serious about human rights policy, compensation should be paid to American-owned companies that lose foreign business in dictator-ruled countries subjected to U.S. economic sanctions. If Swifty’s similar approach isn’t used for China tech policy, it’ll be difficult to claim that the nation is serious about its national security.        

Making News: Back on National Radio Talking Conservatism’s Future & Batchelor China Manufacturing Podcast Now On-Line

20 Tuesday Sep 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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automation, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, China, conservatism, Gordon G. Chang, innovation, Making News, manufacturing, National Conservatism Conference, politics, robots, tech, The Hrjove Moric Show, TNT Radio

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to return tonight to “The Hrvoje Moric Show” on the internet network TNT Radio. The segment is slated to be broadcast at 9-10 PM EST, and will focus on my impressions of the National Conservatism conference at which I spoke last week, and what this new movement will mean for the future of right-of-center politics in America. But I’m sure that the state of the economy will come up, too!

Click here to listen live, and of course if you can’t tune in, I’ll post a link to the podcast as soon as one’s available.

Speaking of podcasts, here’s a link to the recording of my interview last night on “CBS Eye on the World” with John Batchelor. The segment, with co-host Gordon G. Chang, featured a timely discussion of how China’s manufacturing is rapidly automating, and the implications for U.S. domestic industry.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: No U.S. Learning Curve on Denying China Vital Tech

18 Thursday Aug 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Our So-Called Foreign Policy

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China, Commerce Department, export controls, innovation, Kate O'Keefe, national security, Our So-Called Foreign Policy, sanctions, tech, The Wall Street Journal

The biggest reason to be appalled by The Wall Street Journal‘s excellent report yesterday on America’s efforts to control exports of high tech goods and knowhow to China wasn’t the raw data it contained – which showed that the U.S. government almost never rejects requests by business to sell high tech goods and knowhow to China.

No – as disturbing and scary as these findings are, the biggest reason to be appalled by the article is how clearly it reveals that, after decades of dealing with China, and despite the recent U.S. decision to spend huge amounts of money to try to stay ahead of China technologically, Washington has learned absolutely nothing about the threat to America’s national security, independence, and prosperity posed by this increasingly hostile and dangerous adversary, or how to counter it effectively. And maybe it hasn’t wanted to learn?

In fact, the article, by Journal reporter Kate O’Keefe, adds to the evidence that U.S. officials don’t even view China as especially hostile – let alone dangerous – at all. The People’s Republic is evidently assumed to be a country and an economy that in key respects closely resembles most other major powers with which U.S. companies do business.

Sure, U.S. export controls policies put China in a special category, and subject it to special restrictions for goods like weapons and satellite and space equipment, whose transfer to China is banned outright. But when it comes to “dual use” products and tech – which have both civilian and military applications, and which comprise an enormous group of goods and services – the American approach in practice treats China

>as if it’s got an independent private sector that can be sharply distinguished from its government agencies;

>as if China’s civilian government agencies can be easily distinguished from its national security apparatus;

>as if virtually all these entities operate in reasonably transparent ways and can be “trusted” to act safely in their role as “end-users” of these purchases;

>as if America’s main export control or sanctions challenge is making sure that cutting edge products and tech aren’t provided either directly to the Chinese military or other branches of the Chinese bureaucracy that jeopardize U.S. interests (like the secret police), or indirectly – via a small handful of other actors that, for whatever reason (Corruption? Tragically misguided patriotism?), will pass them along to the Bad Guys; and

>as if the U.S. government has the ability to make sure that prohibited items are kept out of the wrong hands.

Just two examples from O’Keefe’s article of how patently inane this approach has been:

>”Kharon, a Washington, D.C.-based research and data-analytics firm, said it has identified tens of thousands of Chinese entities that may meet the U.S. criteria for military end-user export restrictions, even though there are only roughly 70 on the Commerce Department’s current list.” (Commerce is the lead export control agency.)

>The Commerce Department has added to its list of entities for which Americans need a license to do business the officially state-owned flagship Chinese semiconductor manufacturer SMIC – but only after a U.S. defense contractor “documented the chip maker’s military customers.”

Back in 2012, I wrote that China represents a systemic challenge requiring a completely different export control (and sanctions) approach. Nowadays, when China has grown so much stronger in large part because of this La-La-Land (to be charitable) U.S. strategy, a course change is more important than ever.

What this means is that, no matter how they’re classified by the Chinese regime or structured on paper, every single entity in the People’s Republic that’s in the tech or broader manufacturing sector must be recognized as being under Beijing’s actual or potential control. Therefore, they can be counted on to (a) make available to the authorities anything they acquire that can undermine U.S. interests and/or keep the leadership in power; and (b) do everything possible, including with the regime’s active help, to cover its tracks.

This doesn’t mean that difficult China export control and sanctions policy issues don’t lie ahead for Washington. For that, we can thank all the U.S. leaders before Donald Trump’s presidency who so recklessly turned the People’s Republic into such a powerhouse tech manufacturer and major tech market. (At the same time, the fundamentally moronic export control system remained largely intact during the Trump years.) But one critical reform can be put in place immediately – new regulations realizing that if a product or technology is deemed too dangerous to sell or transfer to any one China entity, it’s by definition too dangerous to sell or transfer to all Chinese entities. Because the China challenge is systemic.

Making News: Podcast Now On-Line of National Radio Interview on Reviving U.S. Semiconductor Making…& More!

11 Thursday Aug 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in (What's Left of) Our Economy

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antitrust, Biden, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, China, Chips Act, competition, conservatism, Gordon G. Chang, infotech, innovation, Jobs, manufacturing, microchips, near-shoring, reshoring, semiconductors, tech, Trade, {What's Left of) Our Economy

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast is now on-line of my appearance on last night’s nationally syndicated “CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor.”

Click here for a timely discussion with John and co-host Gordon G. Chang, about whether a massive new array of subsidies and incentives just signed into law by President Biden will indeed revive American microship production, and prevent U.S.- and foreign-owned semiconductor companies from setting up state-of-the-art operations in China.

In addition, it was great to see IndustryToday.com reprint (with permission, as required!) my recent post on some of Mr. Biden’s factually challenged claims about the economy’s performance during his presidency. Here’s the link.

Finally, I’m honored to have been invited to speak at a big conference to be held in Miami, Florida on the future of American conservatism – including what it should be. My talk, on “An America First Approach to Trade and Competition,” is so far scheduled for Sunday, September 11. But sometimes these plans get reshuffled, so I’ll post any updates as soon as they become available. In the meantime, click this link for the rest of the agenda, and the all-star cast of speakers that’s been lined up, at this link. 

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Following Up: Podcast Now On-Line of National Radio Interview on Pelosi Taiwan Visit and U.S. Stagflation Prospects

04 Thursday Aug 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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Asia-Pacific, China, decoupling, Following Up, geopolitics, Indo-Pacific, inflation, manufacturing, Market Wrap with Moe Ansari, Nancy Pelosi, national security, Pelosi, recession, sanctions, semiconductors, stagflation, Taiwan, tech, Trade, trade deficit

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast is now on-line of my interview last night on the nationally syndicated “Market Wrap with Moe Ansari.” Click here for a timely conversation on two headline issues:  how U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan could hit U.S.-China economic relations and America’s access to Taiwan’s world-class semiconductor manufacturing prowess; and why what’s in store for the U.S. economy could be even worse than the recession that’s now widely forecast.

And keep on checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Following Up: Podcast Now On-Line of National Radio Interview on the Biden-Xi Jinping Phone Call

28 Thursday Jul 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Following Up

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Asia-Pacific, Biden, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, China, Following Up, Gordon Chang, Indo-Pacific, innovation, national security, semiconductors, Taiwan, tech, Xi JInPing

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast is now on-line of my interview last night on the nationally syndicated “CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor.”

Click here for a timely discussion, with co-host Gordon G. Chang, of what President Biden should have said today in his telephone conversation with Chinese dictator Xi Jinping, and whether or not the United States can avoid going to war with the People’s Republic to keep Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor manufacturing prowess out of Beijing’s hands.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Back on National Radio Tonight on Economic and Foreign Policy Crises…& More!

15 Wednesday Jun 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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Biden administration, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, China, competitiveness, Gordon G. Chang, Immigration, Jeremy Beck, Making News, Market Wrap with Moe Ansari, NumbersUSA, solar panels, tariffs, tech, Trade

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to return tonight on the nationally syndicated “Market Wrap with Moe Ansari” to discuss many of the main (and often closely related) economic and foreign policy challenges facing the United States and the world at large. “Market Wrap” airs weeknights between 8 and 9 PM EST, these segments usually begin midway through the show, and you can listen live on-line here.

As usual, if you can’t tune in, I’ll post a link to the podcast of the inteview as soon as it’s available.

In addition, it was great to see Gordon G. Chang quote me yesterday in his latest blog post for the Gatestone Institute – on the Biden administration’s wrongheaded decision to suspend tariffs on imports of solar panels from Chinese-linked factories in Southeast Asia. Click here to read.

Also, last week, Jeremy Beck of the immigration realist organization NumbersUSA focused his latest blog post on my own take on some little known Open Borders-friendly provisions in the version of the big China and tech competitiveness bill passed by the House of Representatives. Here’s the link.

And I just found out that tomorrow night I’m slated to return to the nationally syndicated “CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor” to analyze the latest twists and turns in increasingly tense U.S.-China relations. I’ll provide more details here tomorrow – which is a neat segue into my usual reminder tokeep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Back on National Radio Talking U.S. Economic Divorce from China…& More!

25 Monday Apr 2022

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Making News

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China, decoupling, Immigration, inflation, investment, Jeremy Beck, Making News, Market Wrap with Moe Ansari, Moe Ansari, NumbersUSA, tariffs, tech, Trade, wages

I’m pleased to announce that tonight I’m scheduled to be back on the nationally syndicated “Market Wrap with Moe Ansari” radio program to discuss U.S.-China economic relations. Our focus:  the crucial question of whether and how easily America can decouple trade-wise, tech-wise, and investment-wise from the hostile regime in Beijing.

“Market Wrap” is broadcast nightly between 8 and 9 PM EST, the guest segments typically come in the second half-hour, and you can tune in by visiting Moe’s website and clicking on the “Listen Live” link on the right-hand side.

As usual, moreover, if you can’t tune in, the podcast will be posted as soon as it’s on-line.

In addition, it was great to see Jeremy Beck of the immigration realist group NumbersUSA quote from my April 7 post in a column on the damage done by decades of mass immigration to the U.S. economy — including to the wages of working class Americans. Here’s the link.   

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments

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So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

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Real Estate + Economics + Gold + Silver

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So Much Nonsense Out There, So Little Time....

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