(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The U.S. Trade Deficit Remains at a Crossroads

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{What's Left of) Our Economy, Trade, trade deficit, GDP, exports, gross domestic product, imports, inflation-adjusted growth, goods trade, services trade, real trade deficit, real GDP

The encouraging streaks weren’t broken by much, but they were broken. That’s the main takeaway from the trade figures contained in last week’s official report on U.S. economic growth – the second look at the results for the first quarter of this year.

The first had consisted of three straight quarters of growth in inflation-adjusted terms (the most closely followed figures and those that will be used in this post unless specified otherwise) while the price-adjusted trade deficit shrank.

This streak was encouraging because it signaled that the economy was expanding mainly via saving and producing rather than by borrowing and spending. In other words, growth was high quality and sustainable, rather than bubbly and bound to end badly if it lasted too long.

Further, this version of the streak was the longest since the period between the first and fourth quarters of 2007 – just before the arrival of the Great Recession spurred by the Global Financial Crisis. I know – that timing doesn’t sound great. But that streak and that crisis were preceded by a long period of rapidly ballooning trade shortfalls.

The second winning streak consisted of four straight quarters of declining trade deficits irrespective of economic growth.

According to the latest read on the first quarter’s improvement in the gross domestic product (or GDP – the standard measure of the economy’s size and how it grows or shrinks), growth actually sped up some over the results of the first read (1.27 percent in annualized terms versus 1.06 percent). So that was good. But rather than dipping by 0.23 percent, from the fourth quarter’s $1.2386 trillion at annual rates to $1.2358 trillion, the combined goods and services trade gap widened sequentially by 0.40 percent, to $1.2435 trillion.

Optimists can argue that this overall deficit number remains the lowest since the $1.2309 trillion recorded in the second quarter of 2021. But pessimists could respond that it didn’t take much extra growth to put the deficit on a rising path once again, and that as a result, any acceleration of growth from the first quarter’s sluggish pace could push U.S. trade accounts deeper into the red – resuming the dominant pattern of recent decades that strapped the nation with gigantic deficits to begin with. For the record, I’m leaning (but not by much) toward that pessimistic take, even though a single quarter’s results are anything but definitive.

Because it was bigger than initially reported, the first quarter deficit now stands at 6.14 percent of real GDP – up from the 6.08 percent calculable from that initial release (which had been the lowest such figure since the 6.06 percent from the second quarter of 2021), and interestingly, right back to its fourth quarter level. But this number is still way better than the record 7.47 percent in the first quarter of 2022.

With the first quarter trade gap now worsening slightly from the first GDP read, just as growth has risen slightly faster, its role in fueling that first quarter growth dwindled to literally nothing. The initial first quarter release reported that the sequential decrease in the trade deficit had contributed 0.11 percentage points to 1.06 percent annualized growth. But now, the modest sequential increase in the trade shortfall is reported to have had no effect on the new 1.27 percent annualized growth figure.

Both results, though, were way down from those of the fourth quarter, when a much bigger sequential trade deficit fall-off accounted for 0.42 percentage points of its 2.55 percent annualized growth.

The larger first quarter trade deficit means that it’s now 49.32 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2019 – the last full-data quarter before the pandemic arrived stateside in force to roil the economy. The initial first quarter read pegged this increase at 48.39 percent, and as of the fourth quarter, it was 48.73 percent.

Total exports climbed in the first quarter by 1.18 percent in the first quarter, from $2.5796 trillion to a new record $2.6101 trillion. The first quarter result topped the previous all-time high of $2.6041 trillion in the third quarter of last year by 0.23 percent. These overseas sales have now increased by 1.49 percent since that immediately pre-pandemic-y fourth quarter of 2019. As of last year’s fourth quarter, they were a bare 0.30 percent higher.

At least total exports in the first quarter rose even faster (by 1.26 percnt sequentially) than originally estimated (1.18 percent). The new total of $2.6122 trillion annualized was still a new record, nosing out the previous first quarter total of $2.6101 trillion by 0.08 percent. And it beat the previous quarterly all-time high of $2.6041 trillion in last year’s third quarter by 0.31 percent.

As a result, combined goods and services exports are 1.57 percent greater of the immediate pre-pandemic level versus the 1.49 percent calculable from the initial first quarter read and the measly 0.30 percent improvement over the fourth quarter total.

Total imports in the first quarter rose faster than originally reported, too. In that first read, they increased sequentially by 0.73 percent, from $3.8182 trillion at annual rates to $3.8460 trillion. Last week, this sequential gain was revised up to 0.98 percent, for a total of $3.8556 trillion – 0.25 percent higher than that estimated last month.

As a result, combined goods and services imports have now grown by 13.24 percent since that last pre-pandemic full-data quarter total in the fourth quarter of 2019 – higher than the 12.96 percent calculable last month and the 12.14 percent as of the fourth quarter of last year.

The trade shortfall in goods encouragingly kept on decreasing for the fourth straight quarter as of the new first quarter read – a span last matched between the second quarters of 2019 and pandemic-ridden 2020. It also remained the lowest number since the $1.3965 trillion at annual rates of the second quarter of 2021. But the decrease is now judged to be 0.52 percent less than initially judged, with the new number standing at $1.4101 trillion versus $1.4028 trillion. And it’s now up 0.57 percent since the fourth quarter rather than the 1.09 percent calculable previously.

Moreover, these results pushed the goods deficit’s rise since the pandemic began roiling the U.S. economy from 32.21 percent versus the 31.52 percent calculable last month. As of the fourth quarter, this increase was 32.96 percent.

Goods exports came in even better than previously reported. In the first release for the first quarter, they rose sequentially by 3.41 percent, from the fourth quarter’s annualized $1.8468 trillion to a new record $1.9098 trillion. That total surpassed the old record of $1.9010 trillion in the third quarter of 2022 by 0.47 percent.

But the second release boosted that quarterly rise by 0.08 percent. The record total therefore climbed to $1.9113 trillion, and the improvement over the fourth quarter to 3.49 percent. In addition, goods exports are now up by 6.99 percent since the immediately pre-pandemic-y fourth quarter of 2019, versus the 6.90 percent calculable last month.

Goods imports expanded more in the second first quarter GDP read than in the initial, but the rate was much lower than that for goods exports. As opposed to the 0.90 percent sequential increase recorded last month (from $3.2830 trillion annualized in the fourth quarter to $3.3126 trillion), the new mark is now judged to be $3.3214 trillion – 0.27 percent greater than the initial read, and 1.17 percent higher than the fourth quarter total.

These results still represent the first increase in goods imports in three quarters, and have brought the gain since the fourth quarter of 2019 to 16.41 percent versus the 16.11 percent calculable last month.

At the same time, the longstanding surplus in services trade shrank sequentially more in the first quarter than initially reported. As of last month’s release, it had declined by 5.63 percent from the fourth quarter – from $177.7 billion to $167.7 billion. And this drop was the biggest since the 20.94 percent in the second quarter of 2021.

But in the new release, the sequential decrease came in at 5.91 percent (still the biggest pullback since the second quarter of 2021), and the new total was an annualized $167.2 billion – a dip of 0.30 percent from the previously reported first quarter total. So rather than having shriveled by 28.08 percent since the just before the pandemic’s arrival in force in the fourth quarter of 2019, the surplus in this sector – which was hit so hard by CCP Virus and its fallout – is now 29.09 smaller.

The sequential slippage in services exports is now seen as not having been quite so steep as reported in the previous first quarter GDP release. Then, at $721.1 billion at annual rates, it was 1.41 percent below the fourth quarter total of $731.4 billion. Now, the first quarter total is estimated at $721.6 billion – 0.07 percent better than that initial first quarter figure and down 1.36 percent from the fourth quarter level.

Consequently, services exports have drawn to within 8.29 percent of their immediate pre-pandemic total, versus the 8.35 percent shortfall calculable last month.

But rather than having tumbled a bit sequentially in the first quarter, as reported in last month’s release, services imports are now judged to have risen slightly. Last month, these purchases were reported to have been $553.4 billion at annual rates – 0.05 percent below the fourth quarter’s $553.7 billion. Now they’re pegged at $554.4 billion – 0.18 percent above the previous first quarter read and 0.13 percent above that fourth quarter total.

Services imports now have reportedly grown by 0.62 percent since that last full-data pre-pandemic fourth quarter of 2019, versus the 0.44 percent gain recorded last month. As of the fourth quarter of last year, this increase stood at 0.49 percent.

As mentioned at the start, these new trade and GDP results could mean that any speed up in U.S. economic growth could bring about renewed growth of the trade deficit – confirming the end of a streak of continued growth and falling deficits. But with the experts seemingly divided in their second quarter growth forecasts (see, e.g., here) the safest observation for now seems to be that the deficit’s course remains at much the same crossroads as described in my previous trade and GDP post.

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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Energy Drove the U.S. Trade Deficit Drop in a March Full of Records

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Advanced Technology Products, China, energy, European Union, exports, Germany, goods trade, imports, Made in Washington trade flows, manufacturing, Mexico, Netherlands, non-oil goods trade, oil, petroleum products, services trade, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The monthly improvement in the U.S. deficit in March revealed in today’s official U.S. trade report was first and foremost an energy story – not that other noteworthy developments couldn’t be found, specifically records in manufacturing and in American trade with several leading partner countries and regions, and big changes in goods trade with China.

The combined goods and services trade gap narrowed sequentially on month by 9.08 percent, from an upwardly revised $70.64 billion to $64.23 billion. The March total was the lowest since November’s $60.65 billion.

Moreover, the deficit shrank in the best possible way. Total exports rose by 2.12 percent, from a downwardly revised $250.84 billion to $256.15 billion, while total imports dipped (and for the second straight month) by 0.34 percent, from an upgraded $321.48 billion to $320.38 billion. And this trade deficit progress took place when the economy was still growing (albeit at a significantly slowing rate).

And of the $5.31 billion sequential increase in total exports, $4.68 billion (88.14 percent) came in the petroleum products category. In fact, these foreign sales grew at the fastest monthly rate (21.26 percent) since March, 2022 (28.22 percent).

Largely as a result, the goods deficit tumbled in March by 6.92 percent, from $93.03 billion to $86.59 billion – their lowest level since last November, too. ($83.02 billion).

Indeed, petroleum products exports accounted for 89.66 percent of the $5.22 billion expansion of goods exports. On a relative basis, these foreign sales climbed by 3.09 percent, from a downwardly revised $169.09 billion to $174.31 billion.

Goods imports, meanwhile, decreased for the second straight month as well, by 0.47 percent, from a downwardly revised $262.12 billion to $260.90 billion.

The longstanding surplus in services trade slipped in March by 0.11 percent, from a downwardly revised $22.39 billion to $22.37 billion – the lowest level since October’s fractionally higher figure.

Services exports improved by 0.11 percent, from a downwardly revised $81.75 billion to a second straight record of $81.84 billion. The new total topped the old $81.32 billion mark from last December by 0.65 percent.

Services imports, meanwhile, advanced by 0.20 percent, from a downwardly revised $59.36 billion to $59.48 billion – the second highest total ever behind last September’s $59.55 billion.

The huge and longstanding U.S. goods trade deficit with China became a good deal less huge in March, sinking for the second straight month – and by 12.59 percent, fom $19.00 billion to $16.61 billion. Further, that total was the lowest since the $15.76 billion hit in February, 2020 – when China’s economy was still grappling with the devastating first wave of the CCP Virus.

U.S. goods exports to the People’s Republic shot up by 22.06 percent sequentially in March – from $11.62 billion to $14.18 billion. The new total is the highest since last November’s $15.58 billion, and the rate of increase the fastest since last October’s 31.33 percent.

For some perspective, though, this big March increase followed a sizable 11.26 percent decrease in February.

U.S. goods imports from China inched up for the second straight month, but by just 0.55 percent, from $30.62 billion to $30.79 billion. And those two totals are the lowest since early in China’s recovery from that first 2020 virus wave.

Most strikingly, on a year-to-date basis, the U.S. goods deficit with China has cratered by a whopping 39.85 percent, from $101.04 billion to $60.77 billion.

These results, moreover, clash loudly with those of the U.S. worldwide non-oil goods trade – which as known by RealityChek regulars is a close proxy for U.S.-China goods trade.

The U.S. non-oil goods deficit (which can also be considered the “Made in Washington” deficit because it tracks trade flows most strongly influenced by U.S. trade deals and other policy decisions) worsened by 0.19 percent between February and March – from $92.19 billion to $92.36 billion. So China goods trade performed better sequentially on this basis.

U.S. goods exports to China were up in March much faster than the 0.25 percent gain in non-oil goods exports (from $145.80 billion to $146.16 billion).

As for non-oil goods imports, they increased by just 0.23 percent in March (from $237.98 billion to $238.52 billion) – not dramatically different from the China goods performance.

But the year-to-date contrast is enormous. Whereas the U.S. goods deficit with China nosedived by nearly 40 percent, for non-oil goods trade, it fell by less than half that – 17.80 percent, from $336.25 billion to $276.40 billion.

That makes it hard to avoid concluding that the Trump (now Trump-Biden) tariffs keep punishing China (along with Beijing’s own-goals ranging from last year’s wildly over-the-top Zero Covid policies to increasing harassment of U.S.- and other foreign-owned companies) but not simply by diverting imports and trade to other countries and regions. Domestic American producers must be getting some of that old China business as well.

The manufacturing trade deficit, however, worsened by 9.08 percent in March, from $100.05 billion to $109.64 billion. True, this increase followed a 14.36 percent drop in February, but it can’t be good news given the sector’s recent weakness.

Interestingly, this deterioration reflected major changes in both monthly exports and imports. The former soared by 18.91 percent, from $98.06 billion to a new record $116.60 billion (which topped the previous mark of $114.78 billion set last June by 1.58 percent).

Industry’s foreign purchases jumped by 14.20 percent, from $198.10 billion to $226.24 billion.

Big monthly changes and a record were also recorded in Advanced Technology Products (ATP) trade in March. The ATP deficit dropped from $16.23 billion to $14.31 billion. The 11.82 percent narrowing brought the gap to its smallest since February, 2022’s $13.42 billion.

ATP exports shot up from $29.12 billion to a new all-time high $38.33 billion. And the 31.65 percent increase was the most dramatic since March, 2002’s 31.94 percent.

Imports surged, too – by 16.09 percent, from $45.35 billion to $52.65 billion. And that upswing was he fastest since the 33.64 percent burst of last March.

On the regional and bilateral fronts, many of the most dramatic developments came in U.S. goods trade with Europe.

America racked up its biggest exports total ever to the European Union ($34.96 billion – 12.04 percent greater than the $31.20 billion level hit last March) and bought its second greatest total of imports ($50.82 billion, a number trailing only last October’s $53.07 billion).

The volatile U.S. surplus with the Netherlands skyrocketed by 116.40 percent on month, from $1.84 billion to $3.98 billion, keyed by record exports of $7.76 billion. That smashed the previous mark of $6.96 billion by 11.50 percent.

U.S. goods exports to Germany achieved an all-time high, too, with the $7.50 billion figure exceeding the old record of $6.62 billion, set last March, by 13.20 percent.

The U.S. goods deficit with Mexico reached its highest ever, too, in March, with the $13.55 billion total coming in 8.25 percent higher than the old record of $12.57 billion from August, 2020. American goods sales to Mexico totaled $29.27 billion – their second best performance ever after last August’s $29.98 billion. But imports reached a new record of $42.82 billion – 5.87 percent greater than last March’s $40.45 billion mark.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The Real Trade Deficit at a Crossroads

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exports, Federal Reserve, GDP, goods trade, gross domestic product, imports, inflation, inflation-adjusted growth, real GDP, real trade deficit, recession, services trade, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s first official estimate of U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of this year was one of the most peculiar reports in this series I can remember.

On the one hand, this read (which will be revised twice in the next two months) showed a 1.06 percent improvement after inflation at annual rates in America’s gross domestic product (GDP – the standard measure of an economy’s size). That’s a marked slowdown from the fourth quarter’s 2.55 percent real annualized growth. So not great economic news.

On the other hand, price-adjusted GDP still grew, and the price-adjusted total trade deficit slipped. In fact, it shrank for the third straight time while the economy expanded. That kind of streak hasn’t been seen since the period between the first and fourth quarters of 2007 – just before the arrival of the Great Recession spurred by the Global Financial Crisis.

Despite that reference, that’s encouraging economic news, since it indicates that the growth, however measly per se, remained healthy quality-wise. In other words, it stemmed more from producing than from spending – the opposite result from the typical consumption-led growth pattern usually signaled by a widening rising trade gap.

Specifically, in the first quarter, the constant dollar goods and services trade deficit dipped by 0.23 percent, from the fourth quarter’s inflation-adjusted $1.2386 trillion to $1.2358 trillion. (After-inflation figures at annual rates will be the measure used in this post unless otherwise specified.) The drop was also the fourth straight sequential decrease of any kind – which hadn’t happened since the year between the second quarters of 2019 and 2020.  The end of that period, of course, is when the economy began suffering the effects of the CCP Virus. And the new level is the lowest since the $1.2309 trillion recorded in the second quarter of 2021.

The first quarter deficit represented 6.08 percent of the after-inflation GDP – down from the fourth quarter’s 6.14 percent and also the lowest such figure since the second quarter of 2021 (6.06 percent). All these numbers are way below the record of 7.47 percent in the first quarter of 2022.

Not surprisingly, though, the slight contraction in the overall trade deficit contributed little to first quarter growth either in absolute or relative terms – fueling just 0.11 percentage points of the 1.06 percent advance. In the fourth quarter, the reduction in the goods and services deficit accounted for 0.42 percentage points of the 2.55 percent growth.

The first quarter data left the total trade shortfall 48.39 percent greater than the amount in the fourth quarter of 2019 – the final full data quarter before the pandemic arrived stateside in force. As of the fourth quarter, it had been 48.73 percent higher.

Total exports climbed in the first quarter by 1.18 percent, from $2.5796 trillion to a new record $2.6101 trillion. The first quarter result topped the previous all-time high of $2.6041 trillion (in the third quarter of last year) by 0.23 percent. These overseas sales have now increased by 1.49 percent since that immediately pre-pandemic-y fourth quarter of 2019. As of last year’s fourth quarter, they were a bare 0.30 percent higher.

Total imports in the first quarter rose for the first time in three quarters – by 0.73 percent, from $3.2830 trillion to $3.8460 trillion. These purchases now top the fourth quarter, 2019 total by 12.96 percent. As of the fourth quarter of last year, they were up by 12.14 percent.

The trade shortfall in goods dipped by 1.09 percent sequentially, from $1.4182 trillion to $1.4028 trillion. This fourth straight decrease matched that of the span between the second quarters of 2019 and pandemic-ridden 2020, and the level was the lowest since the $1.3965 trillion from the second quarter of 2021. This deficit is now 31.52 percent greater than just before the CCP Virus began roiling the economy, versus 32.96 percent growth as of the fourth quarter of 2022.

Goods exports reached an all-time high as well, increasing from the fourth quarter’s $1.8468 trillion to $1.9098 trillion. The old record of $1.9010 trillion in the third quarter of 2022 was 0.46 percent lower. These exports have now risen by 6.90 percent since the last pre-pandemic fourth quarter of 2019, versus the 4.38 percent growth as of last year’s fourth quarter.

As with total imports, goods imports rose for the first time in three quarters, too. The advance was 0.73 percent, from $3.8182 trillion to $3.8460 trillion, and it brought the post-fourth quarter, 2019 increase to 12.96 percent. As of last year’s fourth quarter, the increase was 12.14 percent.

The surplus in services trade, a major CCP Virus-era victim, sank in the first quarter sequentially from $177.7 billion to $167.7 billion. The 5.63 percent pull-back was the biggest since the 20.94 percent nosedive in the second quarter of 2021. Yet it also followed big third and fourth quarter jumps of 9.44 percent and 8.69 percent, respectively.

Still, the services surplus is down 28.88 percent since the fourth quarter of 2019, versus the 24.64 percent fall-off as of fourth quarter, 2022.

Services exports fell 1.41 percent in the first quarter, from $731.4 billion to $721.1 billion. This decrease was the first since the second quarter of 2020 – the first quarter heavily affected by the virus. Consequently, these sales are off by 8.35 percent since the last pre-pandemic quarter, versus the 7.04 percent calculable as of last year’s fourth quarter.

Services imports contracted only from $553.7 billion to $553.4 billion, but the decrease was the third straight. These purchases have now risen by 0.44 percent since the arrival of the CCP Virus in force, versus the 0.49 percent calculable as of the previous quarter.

With the new feeble first quarter growth figure seeming to indicate surging odds of an imminent recession, the real trade gap presumably will keep narrowing, too. But the economy is still being distorted by the virus and Washington’s roller-coaster responses.

As I’ve written, the current slowdown – due to the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting efforts – could well stabilize and even reverse itself if the central bank pauses or ends its credit tightening for fear of bringing on a hard landing, and if politicians succumb to election-year temptations to keep voters happy with added government spending. In that case (the one I consider likeliest), the real trade deficit could well be headed higher once again, too.    

 

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: Yes, America’s Europe Allies Really are Lagging in Decoupling from China

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allies, Biden administration, China, decoupling, Emanuel Macron, European Union, foreign direct investment FDI, France, investment, Our So-Called Foreign Policy, Trade

Since French President Emanuel Macron’s boot-licking recent trip to China, something of a debate has broken out this past week over whether America’s European allies are moving fast enough to reduce their dependence on commerce with the People’s Republic – or as fast as the United States is. Here’s a claim that they are. And here’s one that they aren’t.

How to know for sure – or with some confidence? Maybe by looking at some numbers? So I did. And the two most important 30,000-foot measures of trade and investment show that the Europeans are lagging significantly – in absolute term and relative to the United States. In fact, both measures indicate that investment in and especially trade with China recently has become more important to the European Union (EU), not less.

The gauges I use are two-way trade as a share of the total U.S. and European Union economies, and direct investment in China as a share of their respective goss domestic products (GDP – the standard measure of an economy’s size). As is often the case, I use the numbers as percentages of their economies because they provide the context that the numbers themselves lack. And this practice is all the more important when trying to figure out matters like dependence or vulnerability.

Let’s start with the European Union’s two-way trade with China and use 2019 as the first year – since that’s the last full year before the arrival of the CCP Virus pandemic, which focused so much attention on over-reliance on China (or any single supplier) for products deemed unusually important. As can be seen, combined exports to and imports from the People’s Republic has grown much faster since 2019 than has the EU economy:

2019: 4.01

2020: 4.39

2021: 4.83

2022: 5.75

In fact, during this period, this trade relative to the EU economy expanded much faster than in the years before 2019. For example, in 2012, two-way Sino-EU goods trade already stood at 3.36 percent of the Union’s output.

(Both sets of figures are in euros before factoring in inflation. The 2012 and 2019-21 figures come from the reliable Statistia.com website here and here. The 2022 trade data come from Statistia. The 2022 GDP figure comes from taking the 2021 Statistia number and adding the 3.6 percent pre-inflation EU growth estimate provided by the Union’s statistical service Eurostat.)

Here’s how America’s annual bilateral goods trade with China as a share of the U.S. economy has changed from 2019 to 2022:

2019: 2.60

2020: 2.65

2021: 2.81

2022: 2.71

These percentages are up some during this period, but by much less than those for the EU. And in 2022, the share went down. Also of note: These numbers are lower in absolute terms than the EU’s. For comparison’s sake, the U.S. figure for 2012 was 3.30 percent. So the importance of China trade to the U.S. economy had been fading steadily before 2019, and has stabilized since. But may be declining once again. So the EU certainly looks like a laggard here.

(These U.S. pre-inflation trade and GDP data come from the standard Commerce Department sources.)

Turning to direct investment flows to China, here are the annual EU results as a percent of economic output:

2019: 0.05

2020: 0.04

2021: 0.03

2022: unavailable

Here, EU relations with China look to be decreasing. But one source pegs the 2021-22 increase at 92.5 percent – a near doubling! Since EU economic growth last year wasn’t remotely that strong, it’s possible that the Union’s businesses have just executed a major turnabout.

(The EU GDP data for 2019-21- this time in pre-inflation U.S. dollars – come from the World Bank. The 2022 figure comes from the St. Louis branch of the Federal Reserve.  The investment figures, also in in pre-inflation U.S. dollars  – including the claim of the big 2022 jump – come from the China-Briefing.com website.)

Their U.S. counterparts?

2019: 0.03

2020: 0.04

2021: 0.01

2022: 0.04

No clear trend here – but no evidence of a big recent pop. So let’s call this a draw at best. And overall edge to the United States.

(The 2019-21 investment and all the GDP data come from the Commerce Department.  The 2022 investment figure can be found in this New York Times piece.

Not that I’m completely thrilled with the U.S. performance. Except for the curbs on exports of goods and investments related to advanced semiconductors, the Biden administration seems wed to the notion that the United States can trim its China economic sails in a piecemeal fashion. But this approach suffers at least two major flaws.

First, as I’ve repeatedly argued, the threat from China is systemic. Therefore addressing product by product or industry by industry is likely to keep Washington straining to keep up with China’s progress.

Second, the piecemeal approach seems to assume that “strategic goods” exist in isolation, even though nearly all manufactured products are only the tip of a (yes, iceberg-like) supply chain.

In other words, if you want to boost America’s health security, you need to make sure that the domestic economy can not only turn out facemasks, but the materials from which they’re made, the machinery needed to manufacture them, and the parts and components of this equipment.

Does this mean that there’s no substitute for aiming to shut down economic relations completely, however gradual this effort may be to proceed? Doubtful, because so many of the goods supplied by China, like apparel and toys, are harmless (although their purchase does increase resources ultimately available to the Chinese regime).

But does it mean that much more energy and thought need to be applied to so-called “decoupling” by both the European Union and the United States? Undoubtedly.

Following Up: National Radio Podcast of China Decoupling Interview Now On-Line

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allies, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, China, decoupling, Following Up, Gordon G. Chang, investment, national security, resilience, supply chain, Trade

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast of my interview last night on John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show is now on-line.

Click here for a timely discussion – with co-host Gordon G. Chang – on how quickly (or not) the United States and its major allies are moving toward their stated goal of reducing their economic dependency on China.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Back on National Radio Tonight on Decoupling from China…& an Award!

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allies, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, China, decoupling, Feedspot.com, Gordon G. Chang, investment, Making News, resilience, supply chain, Trade

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to be back tonight on the nationally syndicated “CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor.” Our subject – just where matters stand with efforts by the United States and other major industrialized countries to reduce their economic relations with China.

The segment will be aired at 11 PM EST and also features co-host Gordon G. Chang. But the entire program, which begins at 10 PM EST, is always compelling, and you can listen live at links like this. As always, moreover, I’ll post a link to the podcast as soon as one’s available.

In addition, it was great to see that RealityChek made the Top 100 on Feedspot.com‘s list of “best political blogs.” At number 66, it was ranked ahead of The Guardian, Think Progress, Talking Points Memo, The Cook Political Report, and The Wall Street Journal Washington Wire, among other well known sites.

All the more reason to keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments!

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The New Official Data Seem to Portend Still Higher U.S. Trade Deficits

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Advanced Technology Products, ATP, banking crisis, China, election 2024, exports, Federal Reserve, imports, inflation, Made in Washington trade deficit, manufacturing, monetary policy, non-oil goods trade, stimulus, Trade, Trade Deficits, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Yesterday’s official report on U.S. trade flows (for February) almost eerily resembled its January predecessor. Change generally was modest in the broadest categories of trade balances, exports, and imports tracked by the U.S. Census Bureau. But numerous developments in the narrower categories were more dramatic, including a new record (in services trade), and some monthly results that haven’t been seen since the peak of the CCP Virus in early spring, 2020.

And another key way in which the February data resemble January’s:  They appear to support the case that the U.S. trade deficit is on an upward path again – and this despite mounting signs that economic growth is slowing (which all else equal should reduce the shortfall).    

The services best came on the export side, with these overseas sales rising from an upwardly revised $80.31 billion to an all-time high of $81.97 billion. This total surpassed the old mark of $81.32 billion (set in December) by 0.81 percent. And the sequential rate of increase (2.08 percent) was the fastest since last April’s 3.31 percent jump.

More broadly, the total trade deficit rose in February for the third straight month. But the increase – from an upwardly revised $68.66 billion to $70.54 billion – was an unexceptional 2.46 percent. At the same time, the figure was the highest since last October’s $77.16 billion.

The trade gap in goods widened, too, by three percent, from an upwardly revised $90.27 billion to $92.98 billion. This total was also the biggest since October ($98.62 billion).

A much better performance was turned in by services trade. Its longstanding surplus was up 3.86 percent sequentially in February, from a downwardly revised $21.61 billion to $22.44 billion.

Combined goods and services exports retreated from January’s upgraded $258.01 billion (the best such result since September’s $259.14 billion) to $251.15 billion. The decline was the fifth in the last six months and its 2.66 percent pace was the fastest since the 20.20 percent nosedive back in April, 2020 – well into the deep depression triggered by the devastating first wave of the CCP Virus.

Goods exports sank in February, too – also for the fifth time in the last six months, from a downwardly revised $177.70 billion to $169.18 billion. And the 4.80 percent sequential tumble was also the worst since pandemic-dominated April, 2020 – when they plummeted by 25.25 percent.

Total U.S. imports dipped by 1.53 percent on month in February, from an upwardly revised $3.26.67 billion to $321.69 billion. The decrease was the first since last November and the biggest since that month’s 6.34 percent.

The same story held for goods imports, which slipped by 2.17 percent month-to-month in February, from an upwardly revised $267.97 billion to $262.15 billion. This decline was also the first and biggest since last November (when they plunged by 7.38 percent.

Services imports not only grew by 1.42 percent sequentially in February, by $58.70 billion to $59.33 billion. They also were up from a January level that was revised up by a hefty 1.37 percent. The February number was just shy of the record $59.55 billion set last September.

The non-oil goods deficit inched just 0.29 percent in February, from $91.85 billion to $92.13 billion. It’s always worth following both because

>as known by RealityChek regulars, it can be considered the Made in Washington trade deficit, since non-oil goods are the trade flows most heavily influenced by U.S. trade agreements and other trade policy decision; and

>because it’s the closest global proxy for U.S.-China goods trade. As a result, comparing trends in the two can indicate the effectiveness of the Trump-Biden China tariffs, which cover hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese products aimed at the U.S. market.

So in this vein, it’s more than a little interesting that the chronic and enormous American goods shortfall with the People’s Republic plummeted by fully 24.28 percent on month in February, from $25.16 billion to $19.00 billion. This new level is the lowest since pandemic-y March, 2020’s $11.71 billion, and the monthly decrease the fastest since last November’s 26.23 percent.

In February, U.S. goods exports to China fell for the fourth straight month – by 11.26 percent, from $13.09 billion to $11.62 billion. And that total is the worst since last April’s $11.20 billion.

The February fall-off in U.S. goods imports from China was the first in three months. Moreover, the 19.95 percent drop, from $38.25 billion to $30.62 billion, was the biggest since the 31.48 percent recorded in February, 2020, which was the peak of China’s (and the world’s) first covid wave.

Another big – and encouraging – move was made by U.S. manufacturing. It’s also chronic and huge trade gap narrowed for the third time in the last four months, from $116.83 billion to $100.05 billion. The 14.36 percent sequential fall-off was the biggest since the 23.09 percent in that peak-China covid February, 2020, and the monthly total the smallest since February, 2021’s $89.29 billion.

Manufacturing exports were down by 4.36 percent, from $105.71 billion to $102.52 billion. That figure is the weakest since last February’s $94.55 billion.

The February manufacturing imports decrease was nearly twice as fast – 9.69 percent, from $219.36 billion to a $198.10 billion level that’s the lowest since April, 2021’s $198.06 billion.

Consistent with the China and especially manufacturing results, the trade deficit in advanced technology products (ATP) saw its fourth straight contraction in February, too – specifically by 0.73 percent, from $16.35 billion to $16.23 billion. That total is the lowest since last February’s $13.42 billion.

ATP exports retreated for the second straight month – by 9.20 percent, from $32.07 billion to $29.12 billion. The decrease was the biggest since November’s ten percent, and brought these foreign sales to their lowest level since last February’s $29.02 billion.

Another four-month decline streak was registered by ATP imports, which dropped from $48.42 billion to $45.35 billion. This total was also the lowest since last February’s $42.44 billion, indicating that ATP trade is partly shaped by seasonal influences.

The February bilateral trade figures for some major U.S. trade partners reminded again of how volatile these flows can be (partly because of small absolute numbers of course).

America’s goods trade surplus with the United Kingdom (UK), for example, cratered by 68.40 percent on month, from $2.74 billion to $870 million. This total was the worst (for the United States) since the UK ran a $140 million surplus last June. The percentage change was the biggest since then, too.

But this nosedive followed the U.S. surplus’ 80.47 percent increase to that January $2.74 billion total that was a new all-time best, eclipsing the old mark of $1.87 billion from immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 by 47.40 percent.

The U.S. goods deficit with France, however, fell by 57.86 percent on month in February, from $1.17 billion to $490 million. This shortfall was the smallest since last September’s $470 million, and the decrease was the bigest since last May’s 66.09 percent.

The U.S. surplus with the Netherlands sank by 42.46 percent, from $3.20 billion to $1.84 billion. This figure was the lowest since January, 2022’s $1.79 billion and the biggest decrease since last November’s 42.86 percent.

The trade gap with Thailand was down 35.68 percent sequentially, from $3.74 billion to $2.40 billion. This February number is the lowest monthly level since February, 2021’s $2.23 billion, and the fall-off the greatest since the 40.60 percent in November, 2006 – when bilateral trade was much more meager.

Finally, the longstanding U.S. goods gap with India narrowed by 33.61 percent, from $4.99 to $3.31 billion. This total was the lowest only since December’s $2.41 billion. But the decline was the biggest since February, 2021’s 34.09 percent. And it followed a more than doubling (106.51 percent) of the shortfall in January that was the biggest since January, 2019’s 224.17 percent.

Just as the overall February U.S. trade results closely tracked those of January, the deficit outlook does, too. That’s largely because the developments pointing to more American import-attracting spending (like politicans’ temptation to stimulate the economy as a new presidential election approaches and what I’m increasingly convinced is a determination by the Federal Reserve to back off its recession-threatening inflation fight) look stronger than those signaling less of that spending (like an economic weakening that looks likelier principally because of the lagged effect of the monetary tightening already begun by the Fed, and because a credit crunch will likely emerge due to the recent banking jitters).

Add in ongoing and possibly greater weakening of the global economy – which will undermine U.S. exports – and it’s easy to see why higher U.S. trade deficits seem in the offing.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The New U.S. GDP Figures Remained a Mixed Bag on Trade

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banking crisis, consumers, consumption, exports, Federal Reserve, GDP, goods trade, gross domestic product, imports, inflation, inflation-adjusted growth, interest rates, monetary policy, real GDP, real trade deficit, services trade, Trade, trade deficit, {What's Left of) Our Economy

The third (and final for now) official read on U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year and full-year 2022 came in on Thursday, and the trade results strongly resembled those of the first and second reports on the increase in the gross domestic product (GDP): definite progress on reducing the ginormous trade deficit on a quarterly basis, but backsliding on an annual basis.

The one area in which revisions were noteworthy: services trade, which was hit so hard by the CCP Virus and consequent limits on in-person service industries, and which most economists agree is harder to measure than goods trade.

As with my last two posts on the trade highlights of these growth reports, we’ll start with the quarterly figures – and present them in inflation-adjusted annualized terms (those most closely followed by GDP observers) except when otherwise specified.

The new data show that the combined goods and services trade deficit contracted by 2.38 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter – from $1.2688 trillion to $1.2386 trillion. The previous report pegged this shrinkage at 2.40 percent (to $1.2384 trillion). So the latest revision was a slight improvement.

Moreover, these numbers mean that the deficit still fell for the third consecutive quarter – the first such span since the period from the second quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020. And the statistics are still especially heartening since that stretch includes the CCP Virus’ arrival in the United States, which naturally depressed imports and the trade deficit by crushing the entire economy, including of course demand for all goods and services, By contrast, during last year’s third and fourth quarters, the economy expanded.

In fact, that two-quarter stretch of the economy expanding and the trade deficit decreasing was the longest since the span between the second quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020. This combination signals growth relying more on the healthy recipe of investing and producing rather than on the crutch of borrowing and spending.

Moreover, the new fourth quarter level of $1.2386 trillion for the overall trade gap remains the lowest since the $1.2039 trillion recorded in the second quarter of 2021. The only discouraging note: During the second and third quarters of last year, the shortfall declined because exports rose and imports fell – the best of all possible trade flow worlds. During the fourth quarter, however, although both exports and imports retreated.

Also, the combined goods and services deficit is now 48.73 percent larger than in the fourth quarter of 2019 – the last quarter before the pandemic arrived state-side in force and began roiling and distorting economic activity. That’s a bit higher than calculable from last month’s GDP release (47.98 percent) but a sizable improvement over the 52.35 percent growth as of the third quarter.

Because the total trade deficit inched up from the second to the third GDP reports, so did its share of after-inflation GDP – from 6.13 percent to 6.14 percent. But this figure was higher in the third quarter (6.33 percent), and the fourth quarter result is still well below the record 7.47 percent, reached in the first quarter of 2022.

As a contributor to fourth quarter growth, trade decreased in both relative and absolute terms over the results from the second GDP read – from having added 0.46 percentage points (17.36 percent) to a 2.65 percent sequential expansion to accounting for 0.42 percentage points (16.47 percent) of 2.55 percent quarterly growth.

Both sets of figures, though, are way off their third quarter counterparts – when trade fueled nearly all (2.86 percentage points) of 3.20 percent growth. That was the biggest absolute amount in 42 years, though far from a long-term high in relative terms.

Put differently, had the deficit not changed from the second to third GDP releases for the fourth quarter, the economy would have grown not by 2.55 percent but by a considerably slower 2.13 percent. The comparable previous figures for the fourth quarter were growth of 2.19 instead of 2.65 percent.

The new GDP report shows that exports dropped more in the fourth quarter than previously estimated. The second read pegged the quarterly decline at 0.41 percent – from the third quarters’s record $2.6041 trillion to $2.5934 trillion. This slippage was the first since the first quarter of 2022.

Today’s results judged the decrease from the third quarter to be nearly twice as big (0.94 percent) – to $2.5796 trillion. At least it was still the second best total ever.

Nonetheless, the increase in total exports since the last pre-pandemic-y fourth quarter of 2019 is now just 0.30 percent. As of the previous read, it was 0.84 percent, and as of the third quarter, 1.26 percent.

By contrast, at an annualized $3.8317 trillion, the latest total real import figure was fractionally higher than that in last month’s GDP report, but 1.06 lower than the third quarter result – a dropoff steeper than that of exports. Moreover, this second straight quarterly decrease is still the longest since the year between the second quarter of 2019 and the peak pandemic-y second quarter of 2020. And since the last full pre-pandemic fourth quarter of 2019, they’re up just 12.54 percent as opposed to the 12.43 percent calculable last month and the 13.75 percent since the third quarter.

As for total real imports, they’re now pegged at $3.8182 trillion for the fourth quarter – 0.35 percent lower than the previous estimate of $3.8317 trillion, and 1.41 percent from the third quarter result.

But the sequential decrease is still the second straight – the longest such stretch since that CCP Virus-influenced year between the second quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2020. And since just before the pandemic’s arrival in force, overall imports are now up just 12.14 percent – versus the 12.43 percent calculable from last month’s report and the 13.75 percent as of the third quarter.

This latest fourth quarter GDP report pegged the trade deficit in goods at $1.4182 trillion – down from the previous read by 0.26 percent and from the third quarter total by 0.99 percent.

The goods trade gap, moreover, still decreased for the third straight quarter – a development that hasn’t been seen since the pandemic-heavy fourth quarter, 2019 to second quarter, 2020 period. And it remained the lowest total since the $1.4647 trillion recorded for the fourth quarter of 2021.

As a result, this trade shortfall is now 32.96 percent during the post-fourth quarter, 2019 period, down from the 33.31 percent calculable from the last GDP release and 34.30 percent as of the third quarter.

America’s trade in services is still in surplus, as has long been the case, but the fourth quarter estimate has now been lowered by fully 2.42 percent from the previous read – from $182.1 billion to $177.7 billion. But it’s still 8.69 percent higher than the third quarter result of 163.5 billion.

The previous GDP report pegged this service trade surplus as 22.77 percent below its immediate pre-pandemic level of $235.8 billion. Now it’s sunk to 24.64 percent below. Through the third quarter, the decrease was 30.66 percent.

The new GDP release shows fourth quarter goods exports to be $1.8648 trillion – which still represents their first sequential shrinkage since the third quarter of 2021. This figure is up fractionally from that in the previous read, and 2.37 percent below the record third quarter total of $1.9010 trillion.

These fourth quarter exports stayed at 4.38 percent above their immediate pre-pandemic level. As of the third quarter, they were 6.92 percent greater.

According to the second fourth quarter GDP release, constant dollar goods imports in the fourth quarter still decreased for the third consecutive time – the longest stretch since the economically weak period between the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020.

At $3.2830 trillion, these purchases from abroad were down 0.11 percent from the previous estimate of $3.2866 trillion, and 1.51 percent from the third quarter’s $3.3334 trillion. And they still remained the lowest such total since the $3.2582 trillion from the fourth quarter of 2021.

Goods imports are now 15.07 percent higher than in the immediately pre-pandemic-y fourth quarter of 2019, versus the 15.19 percent increase calculable in last month’s GDP release. and the 16.83 percent increase as of the third quarter.

Big revisions were made in the fourth quarter services exports figures, however. Previously judged to be $744.1 billion (up 2.99 percent from the third quarter’s $722.5 billion), they’re now estimated at $731.4 billion. That’s fully 17.07 percent lower.

As a result, they’re now up just 1.23 percent from the third quarter, and down 7.04 percent since just before the CCP Virus’ arrival state-side in late, 2019, versus the 5.43 percent calculable from the previous GDP release.

What hasn’t changed: Services exports have still shrunk for an unprecedented ten consecutive quarters.

Revisions were also noteworthy for fourth quarter services imports. Previously reported at $562.0 billion (0.54 percent more than the third quarter’s $559.0 billion) they’re now pegged at $553.7 billion (0.95 percent less). And the downgrade from that previous fourth quarter total is 1.48 percent.

Services imports have still declined on a quarterly basis two straight times – for the first time since the pandemic-dominated year between the second quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020. But since the virus’ arrival in force, services imports have now grown by just 0.49 percent, versus the1.56 percent calculable from the previous fourth quarter GDP release and the 1.47 percent increase as of the third quarter.

As with the first two fourth quarter GDP reports, the annual figures in the new release were worse than the quarterlies, but the differences were smaller because a longer timeframe is involved.

The final (for now) 2022 overall trade deficit of $1.3567 trillion (we’re no longer annualizing numbers) was just fractionally higher than the total in the second read, and represented both the ninth straight yearly increase and the ninth straight yearly record. The gap topped 2021’s total of $1.2334 trillion by ten percent.

This trade shortfall’s share of GDP ticked up, too, from the 6.77 percent calculable from the previous GDP read to 6.78 percent, and set an annual record for the third straight year. The third quarter figure was 6.29 percent.

The deficit’s subtraction from to economic growth last year was scaled down a bit in relative terms, from the 0.40 percentage points of 2.07 percent GDP expansion reported in the previous GDP release to 0.40 percentage points of 2.08 percent growth. In other words, without the rise in the gap, 2022 growth would have been 2.48 percent – or 19.23 percent higher.

But the deficit’s 2022 impact on growth differed dramatically from the results from 2021, when the gap subtracted 1.25 percentage points from that year’s 5.95 percent growth.

The total for the combined goods and services exports deficit`changed only marginally as well – from the $2.5378 trillion reported in the previous GDP release to $2.5344 trillion, a difference of 0.13 percent.

As a result, overall exports swelled from 2021’s $2.3668 trillion by 7.08 percent, not the 7.22 percent increase recorded in the previous GDP release. As of that previous report, this increase was the fastest since 2010’s 12.88 percent – when the economy was recovering from the Great Recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis. Now however, it’s slipped back to the fastest since 2011’s 7.17 percent. But the annual improvement is still the second straight.

Yet the estimate for last year’s combined goods and services imports edged down from that in the previous GDP read – by 0.09 percent, from $3.8944 trillion to $3.8910 trillion. As a result, these foreign purchases are now 8.08 percent above those of 2021’s $3.6002 trillion, not the 8.17 percent calculable from the previous release.

All the same, total imports still rose in 2022 for the second straight year, and set a second straight annual record.

The goods trade deficit was revised down fractionally, too – by 0.06 percent, from $1.5228 trillion to $1.5219 trillion. Consequently, this trade shortfall is now pegged at 7.62 percent greater than 2021’s $1.4141 trillion, not 7.69 percent higher.

But these downgrades still left the 2022 goods trade gap as the fourth straight annual record and the thirteenth straight annual increase. The latter is the longest such streak ever in a data series going back to 2002.

Also revised down – the longstanding services trade surplus in services. Reported in the previous GDP read at $162.3 billion, it’s now estimated at a 0.74 percent narrower $161.1 billion.

These new results left the 2022 services surplus 6.72 percent lower than 2021’s $172.7 billion level – instead of the 5.91 percent difference calculable from the previous release. The services surplus has still, however, contracted for the fifth straight year – the longest such period since these data began to be collected in 2002, and the 2022 total is still the lowest since 2010’s $158.6 billion.

Goods exports stayed unrevised in the latest GDP release at $1.8377. So their 2022 level was still 6.29 percent greater than 2021’s $1.7289 trillion, and the absolute total remained the second consecutive yearly increase and a new record – topping 2019’s $1.7915 trillion by 2.61 percent.

The 2022 goods imports estimate dipped by just 0.03 percent – from the previous GDP report’s $3.3605 trillion to $3.3596 trillion. The annual increase went from the 6.92 percent calculable from the previous GDP read to 6.89 percent, but the absolute 2022 figure remained a second straight all-time high.

The 2022 services exports total was also downgraded in the latest GDP report. Previously judged to be $717.3 billion, they’re now recorded at a 0.45 percent lower $714.1 billion. The increase over 2021’s $6.56.9 billion level also fell – from 9.19 percent to 8.71 percent. But it’s still the strongest improvement since 2007’s 13.08 percent spurt, and the annual advance is still the second straight.

Finally, the 2022 services import level was revised down as well, falling by 0.36 percent from the previous GDP report’s $555 billion to $553 billion. But the 14.21 percent annual increase was still the fastest ever, besting even 2021’s rapid 12.27 percent.

In last month’s report on the previous GDP release, I argued that because the latest domestic economic developments pointed to more consumer spending, and greater reluctance by the Federal Reserve to fight it with ever tighter monetary policies, the U.S. trade deficit looked set to resume rising.

Since then, another big reason for more Fed caution in inflation-fighting has of course emerged – the recent outbreak of turmoil in the banking system.  All else equal, the drop in lending that seems likely to take place should generate slower spending by both businesses and consumers.  Therefore, it should aid the anti-inflation fight without the need for a hard-line on interest rates and even shrinking the money supply from its current bloated levels.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell even said in his latest press conference that “you can think of [the lending effect of the banking woes] as being the equivalent of a rate hike or perhaps more than that….”    

But all else isn’t equal.  In particular, U.S. consumers overall are still flush with cash and as the next presidential election draws nearer, politicians will be increasingly tempted to prop up growth, employment, and therefore more consumption with more government stimulus.  So I remain convinced that despite the progess seen in the fourth quarter per se, the trade deficit is likely to start ballooning again.         

Following Up: Podcast Now On-Line of National Radio Interview on U.S. China Strategy

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allies, Asia, Buy American, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, Central America, China, decoupling, Following Up, friend-shoring, Gordon G. Chang, Immigration, Mexico, NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement, tariffs, Trade, U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, USMCA

I’m pleased to announce that the podcast of my interview last night on John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show is now on-line.

Click here for a timely discussion – with co-host Gordon G. Chang – on whether President Biden’s Trump-y Buy American-focused trade policies are undermining his efforts to build effective global alliances to contain China.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Back on National Radio Examining the U.S.’ China Containment Strategy

Tags

Asia, CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor, Central America, China, decoupling, DR-CAFTA, friend-shoring, Gordon G. Chang, Immigration, Latin America, Making News, manufacturing, Mexico, NAFTA, national security, North American Free Trade Agreement, tariffs, Trade, U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, USMCA

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to be back tonight on the nationally syndicated “CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor.” Our subject – whether the trade and security elements of America’s strategy for countering the China threat are too often tripping over each other.

No specific air time had been set when the segment was recorded this morning. But the show – also featuring co-host Gordon G. Chang – is broadcast beginning at 10 PM EST, the entire program is always compelling, and you can listen live at links like this. As always, moreover, I’ll post a link to the podcast as soon as one’s available.

And keep on checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.