(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Employment Hits a Downdraft

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The manufacturing jobs results contained in last Friday’s official monthly U.S. employment report were downbeat both because 2,000 positions were shed between April and May, and because that makes two months of losses out of the last three. Domestic industry hasn’t experienced a stretch that bad since the period from late 2019 through the depth of the devastating but brief CCP Virus-induced economy-wide nosedive.

And to add insult to injury, revisions were negative. April’s initially reported gain of 11,000 was downgraded to one of 10,000, and March’s losses were revised down a second time – from 8,000 to 12,00 – the worst monthly read since the 42,000 collapse of April, 2021.

In fact, these collective setbacks pushed manufacturing still deeper into post-pandemic employment laggard status. Since February, 2020 – the last full data month before the CCP Virus pandemic began hammering and distorting the entire economy – manufacturing headcounts have risen by 1.56 percent – less than the 1.61 percent calculable from last month’s release.

During the same period, non-farm payrolls (NFP – the U.S. government’s definition of the national jobs universe) have risen by 2.45 percent – an improvement over the 2.10 percent calculable last month. And private sector headcounts are up by 3.04 percent – an improvement over the 2.78 percent calculable last month.

It’s no surprise then that manufacturing’s share of American employment keeps shrinking. As of the new jobs report, it stood at 8.32 percent of NFP – lower than the 8.35 percent calculable last month and 8.39 percent just before the CCP Virus arrived state-side in force. And it represented 9.73 percent of private sector employment – lower than the 9.76 percent calculable last month and the 9.87 percent calculable in February, 2020.

May’s biggest jobs winners among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors tracked by Washington were highly concentrated in a handful of industries:

>in the big, diverse transportation equipment sector, 10,500 positions were added sequentially, and April’s initially reported 6,700 advance was upgraded to one of 10,600. In all, transportation equipment companies have now registered four straight months of strong job creation, and their employment levels are now 4.78 percent greater than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 versus the 3.81 percent calculable last month;

>electrical equipment, appliance and components, where a sequential jobs boost of 2,100 snapped a two-month losing streak and represented these companies’ best such performance since March, 2022’s increase of 3,000. Consequently, job levels in this sector have now advanced by 2.04 percent during the CCP Virus era and its aftermath, versus the 0.98 percent improvement calculable last month.

>primary metal manufacturing, whose 2,000 employment increase marked a fourth straight month of gains. The monthly rise was also the biggest for these companies since they hired 1,200 net new workers last October. Primary metal manufacturers’ payrolls have now moved to within 2.50 percent of their February, 2020 level, versus the 2.98 shortfall calculable last month; and

>the large chemicals industry, which improved employment by 1,700, and pushed its pandemic-era-plus headcount growth to 7.52 percent, versus the 7.49 percent calculable last month.

May’s losers among these broad were broad-based, with the biggest being:

>furniture and related products, where a jobs retreat of 4,000 was its worst such performance since last November’s 4,200 reduction. Because of this drop, the sector’s workforce is now 5.29 percent smaller than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 3.70 percent calculable last month;

>machinery, whose 2,400 jobs fall-off was its worst such performance since the 6,500 cratering in November, 2021. This decrease, plus some negative revisions,  depressed this diverse sector’s headcount down to 0.95 percent above its February, 2020 level, versus the 1.24 percent increase calculable last month.

This poor machinery performance matters because the widespread use of its products for expansion and modernization make it an important barometer of the health both of the rest of industry and of the entire economy; and

>fabricated metal product manufacturing, another large sector which cut 2,300 positions. Whereas these companies’ headcounts had pulled to within 0.94 percent of their level just before the CCP Virus’ arrival, they’re now back to 1.21 percent below.

In addition to machinery, RealityChek has tracked another industry consistently since the virus began destabilizing the U.S. economy: automotive, whose its fortunes have so often and so heavily influenced determined those of manufacturing as a whole during the pandemic period.

As suggested by the robust hiring performance of the transportation equipment sector, April was a return to this pattern, with vehicle and parts makers bolstering payrolls by 6,800. In addition, April’s initially reported hiring increase of 5,800 was revised all the way up to 9,000 – the best such performance since last December’s 9,500 burst.

This recent surge has pushed automotive employment 8.42 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 7.18 percent calculable last month.

RealityChek has also been monitoring several narrower sectors that have attracted special attention during the CCP Virus era, but where the data are always a month behind those of the above broader sectors, Their April employment performances were generally mixed.

Despite the U.S. government’s decision to provide major subsidies to foster more semiconductor manufacturing in America, the sector’s employment record in April continued a weak spell that began back in January. The April loss of 800 jobs in the semiconductors and related devices category represented the sector’s fourth straight monthly decline, and March’s initially reported 300 increase is now judged to have been a steep drop of 1,700.

These dismal results – no doubt due at least partly to the return of glut conditions in many types of microchips – dragged down these companies’ employment gains to 8.86 percent above immediate pre-pandemic levels, versus the 9.20 percent improvement calculable last month.

Aircraft manufacturers shed jobs for the second straight month in April, with the 1,300 fall the worst monthly performance since May, 2021’s slide of 4,100. Along with mixed revisions, the April tumble meant that the aircraft workforce is now 3.62 percent smaller than just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force versus the 3.29 percent calculable last month.

Hiring by aircraft engines and engine parts-makers in April dipped for the first time in three months, as these industries cut headcount by 300. The decline however, was only the first since July, 2021 and it followed a March jump of 1,000 that stayed unrevised. So employment by these companies slipped further below its February, 2020 levels, but just to 6.66 percent versus the 6.33 percent calculable last month.

By contrast, in non-engine aircraft parts, the workforce expanded for the fifth straight month – the longest period of growth since the months between January and June, 2019. The gain of 400 was also noteworthy because it followed a March increase that was upgraded from 600 to one of 800. Jobs in non-engine aircraft parts maker climbed to within 14.10 percent of their immediate pre-pandemic total, versus the 14.62 percent shortfall calculable last month.

But jobs totals for surgical appliances- and supplies-makers dipped by 500 in April. And the initially reported March flatline result for companies that turned out many of the products used to fight the virus is now judged to have been a shrinkage of 200. So where as of last month, these workforces were pegged at 1.23 percent larger than their February, 2020 levels, this growth has now been pared back to 0.57 percent.

The pharmaceuticals and medicines sector fared much better hiring-wise, with its 1,500 net new jobs its best such performance since January’s 1,700. This improvement, plus positive revisions, brought employment in this sector 15.09 percent higher during the CCP Virus era and its continuing aftermath versus the 14.54 percent increase calculable last month.

And the pharmaceutical sub-sector that contains vaccines added 800 jobs for its best employment month since last June and its increase of 900. The workforce for these vital health security companies is now 20.61 percent larger than in February, 2020, just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force, versus the 19.80 percent calculable last month.

To be sure, domestic manufacturing data has a habit of producing pleasant surprises. (See, e.g., the latest production figures.) But with the overall economy continuing to lose momentum, and the foreign markets that normally buy so many domestically manufactured products performing no better, any near-term improvement in U.S. manufacturing employment will be just that – a pleasant surprise.    

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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Employment Keeps its Head Above Water

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aircraft, aircraft engine parts, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, CCP Virus, computer and electronics products, coronavirus, COVID 19, electrical equipment, electronic components, Employment, fabricated metal products, Jobs, Labor Department, machinery, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, non-metallic mineral products, paper, phamaceuticals, semiconductors, transportation equipment, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

America’s domestic manufacturing delivered no fewer than two upside employment surprises in April, according to today’s latest U.S. Labor Department report. Despite persistent reports of U.S.-based industry’s mounting woes (here‘s one of the most recent), the sector added 11,000 jobs on net last month – not world-beating, but its best such performance since January’s identical number.

And revisions showed that the two-month employment losing streak manufacturing had experienced as of last month’s data…wasn’t. Specifically, February’s originally reported 4,000 monthly manufacturing headcount drop has now been revised to a gain – most recently of 3,000.

At the same time, the revisions were overall slightly negative, because of the downgrade of March’s results from a drop of 1,000 to one of 8,000. If that figure holds, it will represent the sector’s first setback since the 32,000 sequential nosedive in April, 2021 that stemmed largely from the automotive sector’s problems securing semiconductor supplies.

On the plus side, however, these manufacturing revisions weren’t nearly as bad as those for the previous two months revealed in the new report on “non-farm payrolls” (the Labor Department’s definition of the American jobs universe).

In fact, although the new data left domestic manufacturing as a national job-creation laggard, this status essentially stopped deteriorating in April.

Since February, 2020 – the last full data month before the CCP Virus pandemic began hammering and distorting the entire economy – manufacturing headcounts have risen by 1.61 percent. That’s a slight improvement over the 1.55 percent calculable from last month’s NFP release.

Total employment is now up 2.17 percent during this period, versus the 2,10 percent calculable last month. And the workforce for the private sector as a whole has grown by 2.78 percent, versus the 2.71 percent calculable last month.

Consequently, as of the the April results, manufacturing represented 8.35 percent of all NFP jobs – the same share calculable from the previous employment report but higher than the 8.39 percent it hit just before the pandemic’s arrival in force state-side. And it accounted for 9.76 percent of all private sector jobs – also the same as last month’s share but lower than the 9.87 percent from February, 2020. (The difference stems from still-depressed levels of public sector employment, which is part of that NFP category.)

April’s biggest jobs winners among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors tracked by Washington were highly concentrated in a handful of industries:

>the big, diverse transportation equipment sector, which enjoyed its third straight month of strong job creation by boosting employment on month in April by 6,700. Payrolls in these companies are now up by 3.81 percent since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 3.33 percent calculable last month;

>fabricated metal products, another big sector, where the workforce expanded by 6,300 – its strongest such showing since February, 2022’s 6,900. Moreover, revisions were positive, including a February result initially reported as a drop of 1,100, then downgraded to one of 1,200, but now recorded as a gain of 300. This progress pulled fabicated metals payrolls from the 1.45 percent below their February, 2020 levels calculable last month to witin 0.94 percent; and

>computer and electronic products, where an increase of 3,200 workers was its best monthly performance since last October’s 3,300. Employment in these industries has now advanced by 1.95 percent during the (ongoing) CCP Virus period, versus the 1.70 percent calculable as of last month.

April’s biggest losers among these broad groupings were:

>paper manufacturing, which lost 2,700 employees in its worst such performance since the 4,600 fall-off two Aprils ago. Now down 2.62 percent versus 1.29 calculable last month.

>electrical equipment, appliance, and components, where cuts of 2,600 jobs were made for the second straight month. This loss dragged this grouping’s post-February, 2020 head count gains down to 0.98 percent from the 1.71 percent calculable last month; and

>non-metallic mineral products, where a sequential employment decline of 2,300 represented both the third monthly drop in a row and the biggest since March, 2022’s 5,000. Payrolls in this sector are now 2.19 percent above their immediate pre-pandemic level, versus the 2.81 percent improvement calculable last month.

RealityChek has tracked two industries consistently since the virus began destabilizing the U.S. economy: machinery, because its products are used so widely throughout manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors that it’s a good barometer of industry’s health; and automotive, because its fortunes have so often and so heavily influenced determined those of manufacturing as a whole during the pandemic period.

As a result, the former’s weak April job growth of 200 wasn’t especially good news. Nor was the sharp downward revision of March’s initially reported 3,800 increase (which had been the biggest since November’s 5,800) to just 1,900. Due to these results, machinery’s employment is up just 1.24 percent since the last pre-pandemic full data month of February, 2020 versus the 1.55 percent calculable last month.

By contrast, vehicle and parts makers added 5,800 new workers in April, extended a string of hiring gains to four months, and turned in their best performance since December’s 9,500 binge. Revisions, moreover, were strongly positive, including a February upgrade from an initially reported increase of 200 to one of 1,300 to one of 3,800. These improvements brought automotive’s post-February, 2020 employment increase up to 7.18 percent from the 6.45 percent calculable last month.

RealityChek has also been monitoring several narrower sectors that have attracted special attention during the CCP Virus era, but where the data are always a month behind those of the above broader sectors, Their aemployment performances (in March) were overall moderately positive.

Although U.S.-based semiconductor companies and their foreign counterparts are slated to receive major government funding to foster domestic production, the sector is now experiencing a global glut for most customer industries. Perhaps that’s why February’s unrevised employment loss of 600 for the semiconductors and related devices category was followed by a gain of only 300 in March – and why this increase was only the first monthly advance since December.

Payrolls in this sector are now up 9.28 percent since just before the pandemic’s arrival in force, versus the 10.20 percent calculable last month.

In aircaft manufacturing, which was damaged by pandemic-era travel curbs and Boeing’s production woes, a strong employment comeback came to a halt in March. Indeed, the month’s drop of 700 was the first such retreat since the 300 jobs shed in January, 2022. Further, February’s initially reported 1,300 hiring burst has been revised down to one of 1,100.

Even so, the aircraft workforce is still just 3.29 percent smaller than in February, 2020, versus the 2.91 percent calculable last month.

Hiring by aircraft engines and engine parts-makers, however, jumped by 1,000 in March – their best such performance since they added 4,800 employees in May, 2020, as they tried to rebound from the devastating first wave of the CCP Virus pandemic. February’s initially reported gain of 900 was downgraded to one of 600, but these companies’ payrolls have now recovered to 6.33 percent below their immediate pre-pandemic total, versus the 7.10 percent shortfall calculable last month.

Non-engine aircraft parts jobs climbed by 600 in March, their fourth straight advance. A stretch that long hasn’t been achieved since these businesses boosted their workforces for six consecutive months between January and June, 2019. Due to these increases, non-engine aircraft jobs are now 14.62 percent fewer than in February, 2020, versus the 15.44 percent gap calculable last month.

As for surgical appliances- and supplies-makers, who turned out many of the products used to fight the virus, their employment remained flat in March. Consequently, their workforces remained 1.23 percent larger than just before the pandemic.

The 400-job gain by the pharmaceuticals and medicines sector pushed their CCP Vius employment growth up to 14.54 percent, versus the 14.41 percent calculable last month.

The pharmaceutical sub-sector that contains vaccines lost 300 jobs in March, but its initially reported February rise of 300 has been revised up to one of 400. Its employee count is now 19.80 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 19.90 percent calculable last month.

In the middle of last month, I concluded that the latest official figures on manufacturing output showed the sector to be “spinning its wheels.” These new manufacturing employment numbers seem to be sending the same message – and as with the production data, indicate that industry’s future, like that of the rest of the economy, depending on the fate of domestic demand – and in turn on whether the Federal Reserve will chicken out from its growth-slowing inflation-fighting strategy, and whether and the extent to which politicians will succumb to their traditional temptation to keep voters’ economically happy with robust spending programs, major tax cuts, or some combination of the two.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Starts a Jobs Losing Streak

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U.S. manufacturing employment achieved a bad type of milestone in March, according to the official jobs data released today: Reflecting weakness in domestic industry, for the first time since the peak pandemic period of early spring, 2020, job levels fell for the second straight month.

The sequential decline was small – just 1,000. And the February dip was actually revised up from one of 4,000 to one of 1,000. But back-to-back losses of any kind haven’t been recorded since the CCP Virus began decimating the U.S. economy in March and April of 2020. Moreover, January’s modest monthly gain was downgraded a second time – from 13,000 to 11,000.

Because of these losses, and continuing economy-wide jobs gains, the March results worsened manufacturing’s status as an employment laggard since the pandemic’s arrival in force. Its payrolls have now risen by just 1.55 percent since February, 2020 – the last data month before the virus’ full economic effects began to be felt. That’s the same as the growth calculable from the previous jobs report.

For non-farm jobs overall (the federal government’s definition of the U.S. jobs universe), employment now stands 2.10 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 1.96 percent calculable from last month’s jobs report. And private sector employment is now up 2.71 percent during this period, versus the 2.46 percent calculable last month.

From another perspective, manufacturing jobs have dropped to 8.35 percent of total non-farm jobs – below the 8.36 percent calculable from last month’s release and the 8.39 percent level just before the CCP Virus’ arrival state-side in force. And they now account for just 9.76 percent of all private sector jobs, versus the 9.77 percent calculable from last month’s release and the immediate pre-pandemic share of 9.87 percent.

March’s biggest jobs winners among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors tracked by Washington were:

>transportation equipment, a big, diverse grouping that added 6,400 positions. Moreover, this advance followed an upwardly revised 2,500 increase for February. Transportation equipment payrolls are now up 3.33 percent since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 2.82 percent calculable from last month’s jobs report;

>machinery, another broad category whose 3,800 employment monthly growth was encouraging because its products are used to equip and modernize nearly all manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. So changes in its workforce can signal optimism or pessimism about their prospects. In addition, this headcount expansion was the tenth in a row,and the March advance was the biggest since November’s 5,800 .

February’s initially reported 400 employment bump was revised down to 200, but machinery’s workforce is now 1.55 percent larger than in February, 2020, versus the 1.13 percent calculable last month;.

>food manufacturing, another big industry that added 3,400 workers and saw its initially reported 1,100 February employment drop revised up to a 1,400 improvement. Food manufacturing’s payrolls are now 4.52 percent greater than just prior to the pandemic’s arrival, versus the 4.26 percent calculable last month; and

>primary metal, a smallish sector that boosted employment by 1,800 in its best performance since last July’s 1,900. Just as good: It’s initially reported jobs cuts of 400 in February are now estimated at an increase of 300.

March’s biggest losers among the broad industry categories were:

>fabricated metal products, a big sector whose 4,100 contraction represented its second straight month in the red after 23 months of expansion, and its worst such performance since the 18,400 nosedive of July, 2020 – when the economy was recovering from the devastating first wave of the CCP Virus. Worse, February’s initially reported jobs decline of 1,100 was downgraded to one of 1,200.

Due to these dreary results, fabricated metals jobs have now shrunk by 1.45 percent since just before the pandemic and consequent lockdowns and voluntary behavioral curbs began kneecapping the economy in Febuary, 2020. As of last month’s jobs report, this figure stood at 1.15 percent;

>chemicals, another sizable industry, where 4,000 workers lost jobs – the worst such performance since December’s 5,900 plunge. February’s initially reported 2,500 employment growth was revised up to 2,900, but since just before the pandemic’s arrival in the United States in force, chemicals makers’ payrolls are now 6.96 percent higher, versus the 7.40 percent calculable last month.

>non-metallic mineral products, which saw a fall-off of 2,200 positions in its worst employment month since last month, when it shed 5,000 jobs. In addition, February’s initially reported jobs increase of 1,500 has been revised way down to one of 200.

These setbacks have depressed this small sector’s post-February, 2020 job growth from the 3.74 percent calculable last month to 2.81 percent; and .

>plastics and rubber products, a medium-sized category where 2,200 workers were let go. February’s initially reported 4,700 employment tumble was revised down to one of 4,400. But head counts in thse sectors are now 2.66 percent greater than just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force, versus the 2.99 percent calculable last month.

Aside from machinery, RealityChek has been tracking employment in automotive manufacturing because of its special importance to industry overall and the economy in general.

Vehicle- and parts-makers boosted employment in March by 3,700, and February’s initially reported increase of 200 was upgraded all the way up to one of 1,300. These advances pushed automotive’s post-February, 2020 payrolls improvement from the 5.91 percent calculable last month to 6.45 percent.

RealityChek has also been monitoring several narrower sectors that have attracted special attention during the CCP Virus era, but where the data are always a month behind those of the above broader sectors, Their employment performances were overall positive but with one exception modestly so.

Although global semiconductor supplies in general are no longer in shortage, supply problems continue dogging certain industries (see, e.g., here), and of course Washington has now approved major long-term funding to boost output in the United States.

So it’s more than a little interesting that employment in the “semiconductors and related devices” category slipped by 600 in February for its second straight monthly fall-off. Moreover, that January decrease of 200 was initially reported as an increase of 300.

Consequently, the workforce in this sector is now 10.20 percent bigger than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 10.79 percent calculable last month.

In aircaft manufacturing, which was damaged by pandemic-era travel curbs and Boeing’s production woes, a strong employment comeback continued in February. Companies in this industry added 1,300 employees that month. With,January’s 400 increase staying unrevised, aircraft employment closed to within 2.92 percent of its February, 2020 level, versus the 3.45 percent gap calculable last month.

The head count in aircraft engines and engine parts-makers surged by 900 in February, in those companies’ best such performance since last July’s identical number. January’s initally reported increase of 100 jobs is now revised down to no change, but payrolls in this sector are now just 7.10 percent off their immediate pre-pandemic levels, versus the 7.97 percent calculable last month.

Non-engine aircraft parts jobs jumped by 1,300 – the best such performance since last January’s 1,400. This past January’s initially reported gain of 100 was unrevised, leaving employment in these businesses off by 15.44 percent since just before the pandemic’s February, 2020 arrival in force. As of last month’s jobs report, the shortfall was 16.44 percent.

Surgical appliances- and supplies-makers turn out many of the products used to fight the pandemic, and their workforce expanded by 200 in February – their best such performance since last August’s 800. January’s initially reported gain of 100 was unrevised, too, leaving employment levels a surprisingly low 1.23 percent above immediate pre-pandemic levels, versus the 1.14 calculable last month.

Pharmaceuticals and medicines companies shed 300 jobs in February, but that retreat followed January net hiring that was revised down only from 1,800 to 1,700. These changes pushed post-February, 2020 employment growth in these industries down from 14.54 percent to a still healthy 14.41 percent.

The pharmaceutical sub-sector that contains vaccines added 300 jobs in February, its best such performance since its gain of 600 last October. January’s initially reported 100 employment decline was revised down to decrease of 300, leaving its workforce twenty percent greater than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 19.90 percent calculable last month.

At this point, I’d expect manufacturing’s current hiring woes to ease before too long, mainly because I continue doubting that American politicians or central bankers will permit the economy to fall into major recession (or even slow down much further) as a new presidential election approaches, and because a post-pandemic rebound in civilian aircraft demand is already hiking production at Boeing and its vast supply chain. Pressures to increase defense budgets further, and significant federal support for infrastructure building and repair, and semiconductor output will help, too. 

Headwinds aren’t completely gone – mainly the possibility that hopes for an economic soft-landing prove naive (perhaps because of a banking turmoil-spurred credit crunch), and ongoing weakness in the foreign markets to which U.S. industry exports.  But at the very least, so far they seem no match for the stimulative gusts we can expect from American politics.        

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing’s Employment Win Streak Comes to an End

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A payrolls loss even as the rest of the American economy continued to create gobs of jobs – that was the big manufacturing takeaway from this morning’s official release on U.S. employment for February.

Although job creation for the non-farm economy (the federal government’s definition of the U.S. employment universe) came in at a robust 311,000, domestic industry shed headcount (by 4,000) for the first time since April, 2021.

Moreover, the modest manufacturing job increase of January, which contrasted so strikingly with the blowout performance recorded by non-farm businesses overall, was revised down – from an initially reported 19,000 to 13,000. The initially reported January total U.S. jobs gain of 517,000 was reduced this morning as well. But unlike the manufacturing results, the new figure (504,000) is still astronomical.

The new February numbers pushed U.S.-based manufacturing deeper into CCP Virus-era employment laggard status. Since February, 2020 (just before the pandemic arrived in force in the United States), domestic industry has boosted headcount by 1.55 percent. the private sector overall by 2.59 percent, and the non-farm sector (which includes public sector workers at all levels of government) by 1.96 percent.

As of last month’s release, manufacturing jobs were up 1.67 percent since February, 2020, private sector jobs up 2.46 percent, and non-farm jobs up 1.77 percent.

Consequently, manufacturing’s share of non-farm jobs has sunk from the 8.38 percent calculable as of last month’s report to 8.36 percent, and from its immediate pre-pandemic level of 8.39 percent.

And its share of private sector jobs is down from the 9.80 percent calculable last month to 9.77 percent, and from its immediate pre-pandemic level of 9.87 percent.

February’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners were:

>computer and electronics products, which added 2,800 workers on month fo its best such performance since last October’s 3,300. In addition, January’s initially reported 700 employment drop is judged to be an increase of 100.

These companies’ workforces are now 2.08 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 1.77 percent increase calculable last month;

>chemicals, whose payrolls expanded by 2,500 in a resumption of a multi-year string of healthy monthly gains. Indeed, this sequential advance followed an upwardly revised loss of 1,400 jobs that was the sector’s worst such performance since the 2,200 decline in May, 2021.

Chemicals employment is now 7.40 percent greater than it was just before the pandemic struck versus the 6.80 percent growth calculable as of last month;

>beverage, tobacco and leather products (a new name for miscellaneous non-durable goods), which hired 1,900 workers in February. January’s initially reported rise of 5,000 (which had been its best such performance since last June’s 6,300 surge) has now been downgraded to one of 3,100, but remained strong nonetheless.

Job levels in this sector, therefore, are still up by an impressive 10.42 percent since February, 2020 – down just slightly from the 10.45 percent calculable last month; and

>non-metallic mineral products, which boosted payrolls by 1,500, but whose excellent first-reported January results (4,200 – thought to be the best since last February’s 5,600 pop) have also been downwardly revised (to 1,700).

Companies in this sector have now boosted their workforces by 3.74 percent since the virus’ arrival state-side in force, versus the 4.02 percent calculable last month.

February’s biggest manufacturing jobs losers were:

>plastics and rubber products, where employment fell by 4,700 to resume a weak employment stretch that began last October. January’s gain, meanwhile, was revised from 1,200 to 1,100.

Employment in these industries is now 2.99 higher than in February, 2020 – above the overall manufacturing figure but down from the 3.52 percent calculable last month;

>furniture and related products, which also continued a recent losing streak by cutting 2,800 positions. At least January’s initially reported decrease of 700 has been upgraded to one of 500. Headcounts in these sectors are now off by 3.60 percent since the CCP Virus began roiling the U.S. economy in February, 2020, versus the 2.71 percent calculable last month;

>textile mills, a very small sector whose 1,700 jobs retreat was its worst such perfomance since the identical decrease in July, 2020 – as the economy had begun recovering from the effects of the CCP Virus’ first wave. Further, January’s initially reported 900 jobs gain was revised down to one of 700.

These results left textile mill employment 10.88 percent lower than in February, 2020 versus the 8.91 percent calculable last month; and

>apparel, another very small industry, which cut employment by 1,300. This loss, moreover, comes on top of a January drop of 1,900 that was initially reported as one of 2,100. The apparel workforce is now 11.32 percent smaller than just before the pandemic’s arrival in force, versus the 9.02 percent calculable last month.

RealityChek has also been tracking employment in two industries of special importance to manufacturing and the economy overall, and both eaked out tiny hiring increases in February.

Machinery data have been an emphasis because its products are used to equip and modernize nearly all manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. So changes in its workforce can signal optimism or pessimism about their prospects.

This big, varied sector extended its monthly job creation winning streak to nine in February, but by a bare 400. January’s results remained in the black, too, but were revised down from an increase of 2,000 to one of 1,000. Payrolls in machinery have now grown by 1.10 percent since just before the pandemic era began, in February, 2020, versus the 1.13 percent calculable last month.

Automotive’s February headcount gain was even smaller – just 200. Nor was it much of a rebound from January’s contraction, which was revised up from one of 6,500 loss to one of 5,100. But the automotive workforce is now 5.91 percent larger than in February, 2020, versus the 5.70 percent calculable last month.

Monitored by RealityChek as well have been several narrower sectors that have attracted special attention during the CCP Virus era, but where the data are always a month behind those of the above broader sectors, Their employment performances were overall positive but with one exception modestly so.

The shortages plaguing the semiconductor industry have bled over into much of the rest of the economy in recent years, which largely explains why Washington has now decided to spend tens of billions of dollars over the next decade to support more domestic production.

Jobs in the category called “semiconductors and related devices” inched up by 300 in January, but – continuing a pattern described above elsewhere in manufacturing – December’s initially reported increase of 800 is now judged to have been just 400. The workforce in this grouping has now grown by 10.79 percent since just before the pandemic struck in full force – a figure that’s better than it looks since these companies’ cut relatively few jobs during the short but deep virus-induced downturn of spring, 2020.

Aircaft manufacturing was pummeled by a combination of pandemic-era travel curbs and Boeing’s production woes, but employment lately has staged a strong comeback. January’s net new hires numbered 400 and December’s initially reported jump of 1,100 has been upgraded to one of 1,500.

Job levels in the sector have now closed to within 3.45 percent of their immediate pre-pandemic numbers, versus having been down 5.56 percent as of last month’s jobs report.

Aircraft engines and engine parts-makers added just 100 new employees in January, but December’s increase of 800 – the best such performance since July’s 900 – remained unrevised. Their payrolls are now just 7.97 percent lower than their immediate pre-pandemic total versus the 8.08 percent shortfall calculable last month.

Non-engine aircraft parts producers reduced their workforces by 100 in January, but December’s hiring increase was revised from 100 to 200. So their headcounts are still off by 16.44 percent during the pandemic period – the same figure calculable last month.

Surgical appliances- and supplies-makers have been in the spotlight since the virus’ arrival in force, since this grouping contains so many of the products used to fight the pandemic. They increased their workforces by 100 in January, but December’s initially reported loss of 400 is now judged to have been one of 500.

As with non-engine aircraft parts their employment level since February, 2020 stayed the same as calculable in December, but in the case of surgical appliances and supplies, the change has been positive – by 1.14 percent.

The big pharmaceuticals and medicines sector was a notable exception to this employment pattern of marginal change, as its companies’ boosted employment by 1,800. But these gains followed December cuts that were upgraded from an initially reported 1,100 to 2,000 – the sector’s worst such performance since the 2,900 nosedive last July.

Yet upward revisions in previous months enabled the gain in the pharmaceuticals and medicines employment to rise since February, 2020 from the 14.25 percent calculable last month to 14.54 percent.

The news was much worse in the pharmaceutical sub-sector that contains vaccines. Employment tumbled in January for the second straight month (by 100) and December’s initially reported plunge of 1,200 is now pegged as one of 1,300.

These drops depressed this grouping’s employment expansion since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 – but only from the 20.10 percent calculable last month to a still sterling 19.90 percent.

With the U.S. economy lately growing more vigorously than widely predicted, it’s certainly possible that its surprising strength will bring an end to manufacturing’s ongoing production recession and its recent weak hiring.  And the federal government has certainly been trying to lend a helping hand via the aforementioned semiconductor subsidies, along with an infrastructure bill, and  green subsidies – both of which contain Buy American requirements. 

But it’s also possible that the last few months’ worth of data are telling us that the fortunes of manufacturing and the rest of the domestic economy are being decoupled.  Indeed, industry’s still towering trade deficit is one indication, making clear that the consumption of manufactures remains much greater than their production. 

Compounding the uncertainty:  February’s manufacturing jobs loss could be washed away via revisions in next month’s jobs report.  But at the least, this first employment drop in nearly two years might signal that domestic manufacturers are no longer hoarding workers as zealously as other sectors of the economy have been.  If so, expect manufacturing employment to continue stagnating.         

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Amid a U.S.-Wide Hiring Burst, Manufacturing Job Creation Trudges Along

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aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, automotive, CCP Virus, chemicals, computer and electronics products, coronavirus, COVID 19, Employment, fabricated metal product, Federal Reserve, food manufacturing, inflation, Jobs, machinery, manufacturing, medicines, non-farm payrolls, non-metallic mineral products, pharmaceuticals, private sector, recession, semiconductors, surgical equipment, transportation equipment, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Although today’s official new U.S. jobs report (for January) showed a completely unexpected burst of monthly employment creation for the economy as a whole, domestic manufacturing shared only modestly in this sequential boom. Moreover, some long-term revisions released along with the new numbers show that U.S.-based industry remains in a hiring slowdown, though one less severe than previously reported.

Between December and January, domestic manufacturers increased payrolls by 19,000 – the best such result since October’s 37,000. December’s initially reported gain of 8,000 has been upgraded to one of 12,000, and November’s identical original estimate of an 8,000 monthly rise now stands at 14,000.

In addition, according to the revisions, for full-year 2022, manufacturing expanded its headcounts by 396,000 (3.15 percent) versus the 379,000 (3.02 percent) recorded last month.

Consequently, domestic industry’s employment advance still decelerated during the second half of last year, the slowdown was less than initially reported. As of last month’s jobs report, its average monthly job creation downshifted from 39,830 between January and June to 23,330 between July and December. Yet the revisions judge that the first half average was 39,170 and that the second half average was 26,830.

January’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the broadest sub-sectors tracked by the U.S. Labor Department were:

>food manufacturing, where hiring hit 6,900. Head counts in this very big industry moved 4.33 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 3.79 percent calculable in last month’s pre-revisions data (the figure that will be used for comparison unless otherwise specified);

>beverage, tobacco, and leather and allied product manufacturing (a new name for miscellaneous non-durable goods), which added 5,000 employees on net for its best such performance since last June’s 6,300 pop. Headcounts here are now 10.45 percent above their February, 2020 level, versus the 9.75 percent rise calculable last month;

>non-metallic minerals, whose workforce grew by 4,200 in its best monthly advance since last February’s 5,600. Jobs are now up 4.02 percent since just before the CCP Virus’ arrival stateside in force, versus the 0.14 percent increase calculable as of last month; and

>fabricated metal product, whose companies added 3,100 employees. Even so, employment in this very big sector sank to 0.91 percent less than in February, 2020, versus the 0.73 percent shortfall calculable last month.

The biggest January job losers among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors were:

>transportation equipment, a big, diverse group of industries whose 8,400 sequential jobs decline followed a six-month tear that featured a surge of 15,000 in December. Still, the latest result was the worst since last May’s 8,700 plunge. Employment in the transportation equipment cluster has climbed by 2.57 percent since that last full data month before the pandemic’s arrival, versus the two percent figure calculable last month;

>chemicals, another large, diverse category that lost 3,500 workers on month in January. This second straight big drop, however, followed a strong run that began back in late 2021, and employment has now improved by 6.80 percent since February, 2020, versus the 6.44 percent rise calculable last month; and

>computer and electronics product manufacturing shed 700 positions in its weakest monthly perfomance sinc September’s 1,300 drop. But its payrolls moved up to 1.77 percent higher during the pandemic period and its emerging aftermath, versus the 1.39percent increase calculable last month.

RealityChek also tracks employment in two industries of special importance to manufacturing and the economy overall, and their January employment experiences differed dramatically.

Machinery matters greatly because its products are used extensively in nearly all manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and changes in its workforce can signal optimism or pessimism about their prospects.

So the 2,000 monthly increase in machinery workers in January seems to augur well for continued expansion. Moreover, this gain pushed the sector’s employment levels back above where they were just before the pandemic began roiling and distorting the nation’s economy and society – by 1.13 percent. As of last month, they were still 0.24 percent less than in February, 2020.

Yet the automotive industry, whose fortunes have greatly affected domestic industry’s aggregate performance for most of the pandemic period, saw head counts tumble by 6,500 in its worst such performance since last February’s 23,900 plunge. Despite the setback, however, the motor vehicle and parts workforce is now 5.70 percent bigger than just before the pandemic’s arrival, versus the 5.46 percent calculable last month.

RealityChek also tracks a number of narrower sectors that have attracted special attention during the CCP Virus era, but where the data are always a month behind those of the above broader sectors,and their Decembers were substantially mixed jobs-wise, too. Comparisons with pre-revisions November data aren’t possible in these cases, though, because those figures aren’t publicly available.

The shortage-plagued semiconductor and electronic components industries boosted its payrolls by 800, bringing their employment levels 5.56 percent above their totals in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020.

The aircraft manufacturers that were so hard hit both by pandemic-era travel curbs and Boeing’s production woes, continued a recent employment rebound by adding 1,100 more workers in December. But they still employ 5.56 percent fewer than just before the virus’ arrival.

Not surprisingly, aircraft engines and engine parts-makers hired another 800 employees that month for their best such performance since July’s 900. Their headcounts are now off just 8.08 percent since February, 2020.

Non-engine aircraft parts producers’ payrolls increased by 100, but are still down 16.44 percent since the pandemic era began.

The story was very different, however, in many of America’s key healthcare manufacturing sectors, as all three followed here reported December job cuts.

In the surgical appliances and supplies industries that turn out so many of the products used to fight the CCP Virus, employment fell by 400 – their worst such performance since last June’s 600 decline. Their headcounts are now just 1.14 percent bigger than in February, 2020

The big pharmaceuticals and medicines sectors shrank their workforces by 1,100 – the most since July’s 2,900 falloff. But employment here is still up 14.25 percent since that last full pre-pandemic data month of February, 2020.

The pharmaceutical sub-sector that contains vaccines let 1,200 employees go in December in its worst such performance since back in December, 2018 when they also laid off 1,200. But since February, 2020, their payrolls have still risen by 20.10 percent.

Optimists can legitimately observe that U.S.-based manufacturing’s meh employment increases lately have been pretty impressive given that the sector has been in a recession (albeit a mild one) for just over a year. But since the pandemic’s peak in the spring of 2020, it’s benefited pretty consistently from a strongly recovering broader economy. It’s anything but clear if domestic industry can keep up even that sluggish pace if the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation policies do start slowing growth, much less trigger a recession.    

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Job Creation Downshifts Further

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aerospace, aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, automotive, CCP Virus, chemicals, coronavirus, COVID 19, Employment, fabricated metal products, food products, furniture, Jobs, machinery, manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products, petroleum and coal products, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, surgical equipment, transportation equipment, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

No doubt about it now – at least for now. As yesterday’s official U.S. employment data (for December) confirm, domestic manufacturing is experiencing a pronounced job-creation slowdown.

Of course, these latest figures, as well as November’s, are still preliminary. But it would take mammoth revisions to change this narrative. U.S.-based manufacturers upped their payrolls by only 8,000 on month in December. On top of the same (downwardly revised) November employee increase, those last two data months have each seen industry’s weakest job gains since the 28,000 loss suffered in April, 2021. And the new October and November figures are downgrades, too.

Another perspective: During the first half of this year, manufacturing employment rose by an average of 39,830. So far, during the second half of the year, this monthly average is down to 23,330.

Moreover, the unimpressive recent results have placed the private sector overall ahead of manufacturing as an employment generator during the post-CCP Virus period. Since February, 2020 – the last full data month before the pandemic began hammering and roiling the economy – the former’s head counts are up 1.29 percent versus 1.17 percent for manufacturing. Last month, manufacturing held the lead by 1.17 percent to 1.16 percent. (Government payrolls at all levels are still down by 1.91 percent during this stretch.

Consequently, manufacturing’s share of total U.S. private sector jobs slipped for the second straight month – from 9.86 percent to 9.85 percent. But industry’s strong two years of hiring mean that this percentage is still higher than the immediate pre-CCP Virus level of 9.83 percent. And the December results still left the manufacturing workforce at its highest level (12.934 million) since November, 2008’s 13.034 million.

Nonetheless, the December jobs report was by no means devoid of bright spots, as the rundown that follows will show that several major industries created gobs of jobs during the month.

December’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the broadest sub-sectors tracked by the U.S. Labor Department were:

>transportation equipment, a big, diverse grouping boosted employment by 15,200 in December – its best such performance since August’s 20,900. Revisions were mixed, with November’s initially reported 6,100 advance downgraded to one of 4,500; October’s initially reported 4,700 increased revised way up to 13,200, and then again to 14,500; and September’s original 8,400 increase downgraded to 4,700 but then revised up to settle at 6,300.

Employment in transportation equipment is now 1.94 percent higher than in the last full pre-CCP Virus data month of February, 2020, versus the 1.08 percent calculable last month;

>non-metallic mineral products, where payrolls improved by 4,500 in December in the best monthly performance since December, 2020’s 5,200. Revisions were mixed here, too. November’s initially reported 1,800 gain is now recorded as a loss of 800; October’s results have gone from an increase of 3,200 to one of 2,900 and back to 3,000; and September’s initially reported 1,500 job loss was revised up to a dip of just 200 before settling at a decrease of 300.

The non-metallic mineral products workforce has now expanded by 0.57 percent since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 0.01 percent calculable last month.

>machinery, a bellwether for the entire economy, since its products are so widely used in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, enjoyed job growth of 3,300 in December. Revisions were positive overall. November’s advance of 3,900 was revised up to one of 4,200 – its best monthly increase since April’s 5,800. October’s initially reported 3,000 increase was upgraded to 3,600 but then revised back down to the original 3,000. But September’s initially reported 1,700 decrease (then the sector’s worst such total since November, 2021’s 7,000 plunge) was upgraded to a decline of just 300, where it finally settled.

This performance moved machinery’s head count to within 0.28 percent of its February, 2020 level, versus the 0.55 gap percent calculable last month;

>food manufacturing, another big industry, which saw employment rise by 3,300 in December. Revisions were overall positive. November’s initially reported 3,400 increase is now judged to have been 4,200. October’s initially reported 1,000 rise was downgraded to 500, but then revised back up to 900. And although September’s initially reported 7,800 job growth was ultimately revised down to 7,600, it was still the sector’s best such performance since February’s 11,100.

The food manufacturing workforce has now expanded by 3.80 percent since just before the pandemic’s arrival in force, versus the 3.52 percent calculable last month; and`

>fabricated metal products, another sizable sector, upped employment by 2,900 in December, and revisions were mixed. November’s net new hires were revised down from 1,300 to 500. October’s results were at first downgraded from a 5,200 increase to one of 5,000, but then revised up to 6,600 (the strongest such number since April’s identical increase. But September’s initially reported advance of 6,300 has been downgraded significantly, to 5,500 and then finally to 2,300.

Job levels in fabricated metal products is now off by 0.93 percent since February, 2020, versus a 1.18 percent shortfall calculable last month.

The biggest December jobs losers among the broadest manufacturing categories were:

>chemicals, a big category whose 5,700 employment contraction in December was its first drop since August, 2021 and by far the worst since the 20,000 nosedive of April, 2020, when the devastating effects of the CCP Virus’ first wave were peaking. Revisions, moreover, were negative on net. November’s initially reported 4,700 head count climb (then chemicals’ best result since May’s 5,100 improvement) to 3,600. After having been upgraded from 1,600 to 2,200, October’s rise was revised down to 1,700. But September’s initially reported 3,400 increase was downgraded to one of 2,700 before being upgraded again to its final level of 3,200.

The chemicals workforce is now 6.47 percent greater than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 – down from the 7.32 percent increase calculable last month;

>petroleum and coal products, a sector whose payrolls weakened by 3,300 in December – its worst such performance since the 3,500 jobs lost in winter weather-affected January, 2021. Revisions were mixed, though. November’s initially reported 900 jobs added now stands at 1,100 (the best such increase since February’s 2,000). October’s results bounced up from an initially reported employment dip of 100 to a gain of 200 and back to a 100 loss. And September’s initially reported head count advance of 300 has stayed upgaded to 400 for three months.

But the December fall-off dragged petroleum and coal products employment down to 8.31 percent below its level just before the pandemic’s arrival in force, versus the 5.31 percent gap calculable last month;

>furniture and related products, whose 2,900 employment decrease was its worst since the 73,900 catastrophe suffered in April, 2020 – during the height of the pandemic’s first wave. Revisions, moreover, were significantly negative – no surprise given the recent woes of the nation’s housing sector. November’s initially reported slump of 1,500 is now estimated at 1,900. October’s results have deteriorated from a slip of 200 to one of 400. And September’s initially reported 300 decrease now stands at one of 600.

These employment setbacks have pushed the furniture industry’s workforce down to 2.31 percent below its February, 2020 levels, versus the 1.33 percent calculable last month; and

>miscellaneous nondurable goods, which also reduced its payrolls by 2,900 in December, and whose revisions were negative on net. November’s initially reported jobs gain of 1,200 is now pegged as a retreat of 3,300 – these companies’ worst such performance since they cut 9,400 positions in December, 2020. After October’s gain of 2,100 was upgraded to one of 3,300, it was lowered to 2,700 – which at least was still the best such performance since June’s 5,400. But September’s results have been revised up from 1,300 net new hires to 2,000 and have settled at 2,300.

This diverse group of industries’ have now enlarged their workforce by 9,68 percent since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 12.13 percent calculable last month.

As known by RealityChek regulars, throughout the CCP Virus period, the automotive industry’s employment gyrations have influenced manufacturing’s overall hiring, and in December, as with other sectors examined above, its robust job creation helped keep industry’s monthly total in the black.

Indeed, U.S.-based vehicle and parts makers added 7,400 workers on month, and revisions were positive. November’s initially reported increase of 1,900 was revised up to 2,300 – though this result was still these industries’ weakest since they shed 7,400 employees in May. But October’s initially reported rise of 4,800 has been upgraded twice – to 7,500 and then to 9,000. And September’s results have been revised from 8,300 to 7,400 and then bsck up to 9,000 – where they’ve remained.

All told, automotive’s jobs numbers are now 5.11 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 4.17 percent calculable last month.

RealityChek has also been following several other industries of specical interest during the pandemic era whose results are always a month behind those of the above categories. And on the whole, they expanded job creation modestly in November.

In the semiconductor sector, whose shortages have handicapped so many other industries, and which will now benefit from massive government subdidies aimed at reviving domestic production, head counts rose by 1,200, and revisions were mixed. October’s initially reported increase of 2,300 was downgraded to one of 2,200 – a total that was still the best since June, 2020’s 3,000, during the recovery from the first CCP Virus wave. But September’s figures remained donwardly revised from an initially reported gain of 800 to a loss of 1,000.

The semiconductor workforce is now 6.60 percent larger than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 6.01 percent calculable last month.

Aerospace manufacturers were especially hard hit by the CCP Virus-era travel bans and by individuals’ reluctance to fly. But with normalization returning, these companies’ revived hiring continued on balance in November.

Aircraft makers enlarged their workforce by 300 – a performance that was actually their weakest since they cut 800 positions in January. Revisions were slightly negative, however, with October’s initially reported 3,900 revised down to 3,800 – still the sector’s best such performance since June, 2021’s 4,400 jump. And September’s initially reported advance of 1,300 stayed at a downwardly revised 1,200.

As a result, aircraft employment crept to within 5.77 percent of its immediate pre-pandemic level, versus the 5.85 percent calculable last month.

In aircraft engines- and engine parts-makers, payrolls grew by 500, and revisions were positive. October’s initially reported improvement of 700 was upgraded to one of 800, and September’s 100 job loss has remained unrevised. Employment in these industries has now contracted by 7.42 percent since February, 2020, versus the 8.83 percent calculable last month.

The exceptions to this pattern of stronger November hiring were the non-engine aircraft parts- and equipment sectors. They cut payrolls by 400 in November, and revisions were slightly negative. October’s initially reported gain of 100 was revised down to no change, and Smbeepter’s contraction stayed at 700 after having been downgraded from a loss of 500. These results left employment among these companies off by 14.45 percent during the CCP Virus era, versus the 14.36 percent calculable last month.

The healthcare manufacturers that have occupied the spotlight since the pandemic began generally added jobs in November, too. But the surgical appliances and supplies makers that turn out so many of the products used to fight the CCP Virus weren’t among them.

These companies shrank their workfoce by 800 in November in their weakest performance since identical cuts in June, and revisions were negative on balance. October’s initially reported hiring flatline was revised up to an increase of 600 – their best employment month since they added 900 positions in August. But September’s results have been downgraded to a decline of 300 after having been revised up from an advance of 1,000 to one of 1,200.

These ups and downs left this sector’s workforce just 4.83 percent larger than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 –much lower than the 11.64 percent growth calculable last month.

By contrast, the big pharmaceuticals and medicines category boosted employment by 2,200 in November – its best such performance since June’s 4,000. Revisions were positive, too. October’s initially reported increase of 600 (which I erroneously reported last month as a flatline) was downgraded to 500, but September’s advances have been revised up from 200 to 500 to 1,200.

During the CCP Virus era, this sector has upped employment by 12.51 percent, versus the 11.64 percent calculable last month.

Finally, the medicines subsector containing vaccines hired 700 net new workers in November, but revisions were mixed. October’s initially reported gain of 600 was upgraded to one of 900 – the best improvement since the identical addition in June. But September’s results have been revised down from a rise of 500 to one of 300 after having been initially reported as a 200 increase.

Still, employment in this vaccines-centric grouping is now 27.31 percent higher than just before the pandemic hit the United States in force, versus the 26.29 percent calculable last month.

The substantial hiring increases in major industries like automotive and fabricated metals products make it difficult to forecast a significant downturn in manufacturing job creation during the next few months. And the strong job creation in machinery is especially encouraging, since it seems to indicate that companies throughout industry and the rest of the economy are ordering its products in anticipation of continued solid demand from their customers.

At the same time, the chemicals sector also provides inputs for many other industries, and its December job cuts could presage, at a minimum, a softening of activity in manufacturing and beyond. And since it began acknowledging inflation’s seriousness, the Federal Reserve seems as determined as ever to achieve such softening in order bring prices under control.

Right now, the safest bet seems to be that manufacturing job creation stays subdued, and even loses more momentum.

Im-Politic: A CCP Virus Lesson Learned and a Mystery Still Unsolved

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Biden, CCP Virus, CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, coronavirus, COVID 19, Donald Trump, hospitalizations, Im-Politic, mortality, National Center for Health Statistics, vaccines, Washington Post, Worldometers.info, Wuhan virus

As the third anniversary of the CCP Virus’ arrival in the United States approaches, new data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have upended a widely held belief about the U.S. government’s response, even as other recent statistics have left another conclusion firmly in place.

The upended belief: that President Biden has handled the pandemic much better than former President Trump. Recently released figures from the CDC say it ain’t so – at least when it comes to the virus’ death toll.

According to the agency’s National Center for Health Statistics, in 2020, the number of American deaths attributable to the CCP Virus was 350, 831. According to its latest report on the leading causes of mortality in the United States, Covid 19 took 416,893 lives in 2021. That’s an 18.83 percent increase.

In other words, in 2020, when Trump was President and his policies toward the pandemic were widely considered an unmitigated disaster (except for the Operation Warp Speed policy that produced vaccines in record time), the virus killed many fewer Americans than in 2021, when Joe Biden’s administration has gotten much better marks.

But maybe these results are skewed by the fact that the Trump Covid year only lasted eleven months (because the first recorded American CCP Virus death didn’t occur till February 29, 2020, and the Trump administration ended on January 20, 2021)? Nope. Even when you make the needed changes, and peg the start of the Biden administration in February, 2021, you get the same 18.83 percent gap (with monthly deaths under Trump coming in at 31,893 and under Mr. Biden at 37,899).

The big bump up in deaths under Biden are even stranger when you consider that when the pandemic hit the United States, it was a truly novel coronavirus, meaning that it was difficult to figure out what it even was, much less how rapidly it could spread (thanks in part to China’s refusal to share reliable information), let alone how to treat it. So healthcare providers (and public health agencies) literally were flying blind. Moreover, there was absolutely no vaccine. And relatively few had the chance to develop natural immunity.

It’s true that the vaccine rollout took some time to complete (partly because, again, it was a novel challenge), and that once it was widely available, many Americans refused to be jabbed. But according to this source, by July 30, half of the population was fully vaccinated, and by year-end, this level had hit 62 percent.

Biden supporters can point to the fact that. in fall, 2021, the seven-day daily average of CCP Virus-attributable deaths peaked at 2,093 (on September 22). That was 37.47 percent below the peak under Trump (a seven-day average of 3,347 on January 17, 2021). (These figures come from the Washington Post‘s Covid tracker feature.) But again, there was no vaccine available at all in fall, 2021, under Trump. And natural immunity was much more widespread during President Biden’s first year.

Of course, deaths aren’t the only metric needed to evaluate the effectiveness of CCP Virus responses. Hospitalizations are important, too. A flood of severe virus victims can strain the healthcare system to the breaking point, both making each of them harder to treat effectively, and leaving fewer personnel and resources available for dealing with other serious medical problems.

So it’s more than a little interesting to observe that, according to the Post‘s virus tracker, the peak of reported Covid-related hospital admissions under Trump came on January 6, 2021, at 139,752. During President Biden’s first year, it was 101,865 on December 31, 2021. That’s 27.11 percent fewer. But again, the Trump peak came during a vaccine-less period. Moreover, that Trump peak was the peak for that winter’s wave. That Biden peak wouldn’t arrive until January 19, 2022, when reported hospitalizations hit 161,789 – 15.77 percent higher than the worst Trump figure. And these Biden-era hospitalizations reached such levels even though this was the time when the virus’ Omicron variant became dominant in the United States – strain that was the most infectious, yet the least severe, yet.

But the conclusion that’s been left in place is that, whoever the President, the United States’ virus response has been much less effective than that of many other countries in terms of saving lives.

As of today, the Worldometers.info website reports that the CCP Virus has killed just under 6.69 million globally. The death toll in the United States: Just under 1.12 million. So the United States has suffered 16.74 percent of the world’s virus-related deaths even though it represents just 4.25 percent of the world’s population. That’s a discrepancy so big that it can’t possibly be explained to any meaningful extent by national differences in how virus-related deaths are defined.

A new U.S. Congress convenes next month, and supposedly lots of investigations will be launched – especially by the new Republican majority in the House. Let’s hope that a serious probe of the nation’s clearly bipartisan failure to cope adequately with the CCP Virus is at or near the top of the list.  

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Job Growth is Down, but Don’t Count it Out

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aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, chemicals, electrical equipment, Employment, Federal Reserve, food manufacturing, inflation, Jobs, machinery, manufacturing, paper and paper products, pharmaceuticals, plastics and rubber products, primary metals, semiconductors, surgical equipment, transportation equipment, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

As shown by the new (for November) official U.S. employment report, domestic manufacturing’s job creation has been so strong since the CCP Virus arrived state-side in force that even one lagging month didn’t change its recent status as a national hiring leader.

That said, Friday’s report on what are called non-farm payrolls (NFP – the U.S. government’s definition of the American jobs universe) also revealed that, as with the entire economy, manufacturing job creation has downshifted in recent months. Whether it will stall out or worse going forward, however, remains a very open question.

Domestic industry upped payrolls by 14,000 sequentially in November – its weakest performance since shedding 28,000 positions in April, 2021. Revisions were positive, but just mildly, with October’s initially reported gain of 32,000 now pegged at 36,000, and September’s increase remaining at a slightly upwardly revised 23,000.

These results are less impressive than those from the first half of this year, when manufacturers boosted employment by a monthly average of nearly 40,000, and three months saw gains of more than 50,000. Yet since February, 2020 – the last full data month before the virus began spreading rapidly and roiling the economy – industry’s employees have increased by 1.17 percent. That’s better than the gain for the private sector overall (1.16 percent) and for the non-farm economy (0.68 percent).

Manufacturing’s share of all private sector jobs and all non-farm jobs did dip in November – from 9.87 percent of the former to 9.86 percent, and from 8.43 percent to 8.42 percent for the latter. But both shares are still higher than in February, 2020 – which were 9.83 percent and 8.38 percent, respectively.

In addition, the November manufacturing employment advance kept its head count at the highest level (12.934 million) since November, 2008’s 13.034 million.

November’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the broadest sub-sectors tracked by the U.S. Labor Department were:

>transportation equipment, a big diverse sector that added 6,100 workers. And revisions were nothing less than spectacular. October’s initially reported advance of 4,700 is now estimated as a surge of 13,200. September’s result is now judged as a 6,300 jump after having been revised down from an initially reported 8,400 increase to one of 4,700. And August’s initially reported 2,400 jump was jaw-droppingly upgraded to one of 10,500 and then to a 20,900 burst, which is the final figure for now. This rocket ride has pushed transportation equipment employment to 1.08 percent above the levels of immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 versus the 0.14% calculable last month;

>chemicals, another big, diverse sector which raised employment by 4,700 – its best monthly result since May’s 5,100. Revisions, however, were mixed. October’s initially reported 1,600 increase was revised up to one of 2,200. September’s initially reported rise of 3,400 was downgraded to one of 2,700 but then revised back up to a 3,200 increase. But August’s initially reported gain of 3,500, which was revised up to 3,900, was then downgraded to a final total of 2,700. Still, chemicals payrolls have now climbed by 7.32 percent since the pandemic’s arrival in force, versus the 6.64 percent calculable last month;

>machinery, whose 3,900 net new employees were especially encouraging bothnew because this hiring was the strongest since April’s 5,800, and because this industry’s products are used so widely througout the rest of manufacturing and the entire economy. Even better, revisions were considerably positive. October’s initially reported improvement of 3,000 was upgraded to one of 3,600. September’s initially reported 1,700 decrease (which had been the worst since last November’s 7,000) was revised up to a decline of 300 and then estimated as the same. And after being revised down from 2,800 to 2,200, August’s increase was revised back up to the now final figure of 2,800. Whereas machinery employment was off by 0.90 percent from February, 2020 levels as of last month, it’s now within 0.55 percent; and

>food manufacturing, another big sector, and one that hired 3,400 net new workers. Revisions were mixed here, too. October’s initially reported increase of 1,000 was cut in half, to 500. But September’s initially reported 7,800 pop (the best such performance since February’s 11,100) went unrevised and then was downgraded to a still impressive 7,600. And although August’s initially reported 2,400-job loss was first revised up to one of 1,000, it was then downgraded to a decrease of 2,700, which is where it’s stayed. Food manufacturing’s workforce has now grown by 3.52 percent since the pandemic began hammering the economy, versus the 3.36 percent calculable last month.

The biggest November jobs losers among the broadest manufacturing categories were:

>plastics and rubber products, whose 3,200 employment drop was its biggest since the 4,400 plunge in September, 2021 – and where revisions were negative, except for one that was in the “jaw-dropping” category, too. October’s initially reported increase of 3,000 was revised down to 700. September’s initially reported loss of 1,400 was upgraded to a gain of 600 before being revised way down to a decrease of 2,400. And after being revised down from an advance of 900 to one of 100, August’s job creation estimate soared to 4,400, where it remained Friday morning. But the post-February, 2020 increase in plastics and rubber products jobs fell from the 4.94 percent calculable last month to 3.76 percent;

>electrical equipment and appliances, whose 2,400 monthly employment decrease was the worst since May, 2020’s 6,100. Revisions, moreover, were significantly negative. October’s initially reported net new hiring of 300 is now judged to be a decline of 1,300. September’s initially reported rise of 3,000 has been downgraded twice – to one of 1,300 and then to 1,100. And August’s gains, which were first upgraded from 800 to 1,700, were then revised down to their final figure of 1,200. As a result of these setbacks, the payrolls of electrical equipment- and appliance-makers are now just 2.72 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 3.77 percent calculable last month;

.>paper and paper products, whose companies shed 2,000 jobs, their worst performance since the 2,800 drop in April, 2021. Revisions overall were negative. October’s initially reported increase of 900 was revised up to 1,300 (the best such performance since this past April’s 2,100). September’s initially reported rise of 100 was upgraded significantly to 1,200 before being downgraded to an advance of 700. And August’s initially reported loss of 700 was revised up to one of 500 but then downgraded to a 1,000 decline. Employment in this sector is now 1.10 percent lower than in February, 2020 versus the -0.52 percent calculable last month; and

>primary metals, where head counts weakened by 1,700 for the worst such result since the 9,200 nosedive in May, 2020 – as the Virus pandemic was just off its peak. Yet revisions were positive on net. October’s initially reported drop of 200 is now judged to have been a gain of 900. September initially reported decrease was upgraded even more – to an increase of 2,700 – before being revised back down to one of 2,300. And August’s initially reported improvement of 1,400 was downgraded to one of 600 before being upgraded to 900, where it remained today. Primary metals employment is now 3.95 percent lower than just before the pandemic’s arrival in force, versus the 3.68 percent calculable last month.

One industry followed closely by RealityChek throughout the CCP Virus period registered healthy solid employment gains in November. Job numbers in the automotive sector climbed by 1,900, and revisions were dramatically positive. October’s initially reported increase of 4,800 is now judged to have been 7,500. September’s initially reported growth of 8,300 was first downgraded to 7,400 but then revised up to 9,000. And August’s initially reported drop of 1,900 to a jump of 4,000 and then way up to a burst of 12,000 – its final figure for now and the best such result since March’s 18,400. This hiring wave left automotive sector head counts 4.17 percent higher than in immediately pre-CCP Virus February, 2020, versus the 3.54 percent calculable last month.

As known by RealityChek regulars, data for several other industries of special interest since the pandemic era began are always a month behind the figures for these broader categories, and these October results were generally good.

The shortage-plagued semiconductor industry added 2,300 jobs in October, possibly representing an early sign of the major Made in America incentives contained in the recently passed CHIPS and Science Act. The increase was the best since June, 2020’s 3,000, but revisions were only mixed. September’s initially reported advance of 800 is now judged to be a drop-off of 1,000, but August’s initially reported 1,200 increase was revised up to its now final figure of 1,500. Semiconductor industry employment is now 6.01 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 5.74 percent calculable last month.

The aerospace industry was hard hit by the pandemic because of all the national and worldwide travel restrictions put in place. In October, however, this sector’s jobs comeback generally continued strongly. Employment by aircraft manufacturers expanded by 3,900 that month, the best such result since June, 2021’s 4,400. September’s initially reported 1,300 increase was taken down a peg to 1,200, but August’s initially reported gain of 1,300 was revised up to 1,700 and left unrevised yesterday morning. As a result, aircraft manufacturing jobs are now 5.85 percent below their immediate pre-pandemic levels, versus the 7.41 percent calculable last month.

Aircraft engines- and engine parts-makers boosted payolls by 700 in October, their best such perfomance since July’s 800. Revisions were negative on balance, with September’s initially reported job decrease of 100 staying unrevised and August’s initially reported increase of 800 downwardly revised to a final figure of 400. Aircraft engines- and engine parts-makers employment consequently closed to within 8.07 percent of its pre-February, 2020 level, versus the 8.83 percent calculable last month.

Non-engine aircraft parts- and equipment-makers hired 100 net new workers in October, and revisions were mixed. September’s initially reported slip of 500 is now judged to have been one of 700 but August’s initially reported jump of 1,100 was revised up to a final figure of 1,300 – the best such result since January’s 1,400. The non-engine aircraft parts workforce is now 14.45 percent smaller than in since February, 2020 versus the 14.36 percent calculable last month.

The surgical appliances and supplies category contains the personal protective equipment, respirators, and other products central to the U.S. response to the CCP Virus, and kept on enlarging its workforce (by 400) in October. Revisions were mixed, as September’s initially reported job decrease of 200 was downgraded to one of 300, but August’s reported gains have been upgraded from.700 to 800 to 900 – the strongest such perfomance since March’s 1,100. Employers in this sector have now increased their workforce by 5.59 percent since just before the pandemic’s economic – and health – impact began to be fully felt, versus the 5.11 percent calculable last month.

The employment total for pharmaceuticals and medicines flatlined in October, and revisions were oveall negative. September’s initially reported employment expansion was revised up from 1,000 to 1,200 – the best since June’s 4,000. But August’s initially reported gain of 1,700 remained at a significantly downgraded 300. The head count in this sector is now 11.64 percent bigger than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 versus the 11.58 percent calculable last month.

Finally, the medicines subsector containing vaccines added 600 net new workers in October in the strongest job increase since June’s 900. Revisions, though, were mixed, with September’s initially reported gain of 200 upped to 500 but August’s initially reported 900 increase now estimated at a decrease of 600 – the biggest drop since December, 2018’s 1,100. Vaccine-makers’ payrolls have now swelled by 26.29 percent since February, 2020, versus the 25.58 percent calculable last month.

The confusion surrounding the U.S. economy’s growth prospects for the foreseeable future inevitably create uncertainty about manufacturing’s outlook. As noted in this previous post, many forward-looking indicators look pretty worrisome, but at least through the end of this year, expansion seems to have  been continuing at a healthy rate.

Big questions about the Federal Reserve’s approach to inflation-fighting are also clouding the manufacturing forecast. But what may be especially revealing is that even during the first half of this year, when the economy tumbled into a recession, manufacturing, along with the rest of the private sector kept hiring, and kept reporting a strong desire to fill lots of empty positions. So until some convincing evidence appears that this striking, pandemic-era pattern will change if a slowdown does begin, I’ll be cautiously bullish about manufacturing job creation.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Takes the Recent U.S. Job Creation Lead

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aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, automotive, computer and electronics products, consumers, Employment, fabricated metal products, Federal Reserve, housing, Jobs, machinery, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, non-metallic mineral products, personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, PPE, private sector, recession, semiconductors, surgical equipment, textiles, transportation equipment, vaccines, wood products, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Maybe the next sets of official figures will show that U.S.-based manufacturing is finally succumbing to a series of formidable obstacles that have been placed in its way recently and not-so-recently: signs of a slowing U.S. economy, a Federal Reserve whose anti-inflation policies seem certain to undercut growth, major troubles in the big export markets so important to domestic industry, a super-strong dollar that harms its price-competitiveness all over the world, and continuing supply chain snags.

Yet as of the October jobs data released on Friday, domestic industry has continued to hire – which is almost always a sign of optimism from the employers with skin in the game.

Domestic industry added 32,000 workers on month in October, and revisions were positive. September’s initially reported gain of 22,000 was bumped up to 23,000. After being revised up from 22,000 to 29,000, the August numbers received another upgrade, to 36,000. And July’s final figure came in at an upwardly revised 37,000.

As a result, manufacturing payrolls are now 1.07 percent greater than in February, 2020, the last full data month before the CCP Virus pandemic began massively weakening and distorting the entire economy. As of last month’s jobs report, the pandemic-era gain had been 0.74 percent.

In fact, manufacturers’ hiring in October was so strong that it moved into the national post-February, 2020 job-creation lead. Employment in the overall private sector has expanded by just 1.03 percent since then, and in the entire American jobs universe – which includes public sector jobs and which the U.S. Labor Department calls “non-farm payrolls” (NFP) – is up only 0.34 percent.

As a result, manufacturing jobs now make up 9.87 percent of all U.S. private sector jobs, versus the immediate pre-pandemic figure of 9.83 percent, and 8.43 percent of all non-farm jobs, versus the 8.38 percent figure in February, 2020.

The October increases, moreover, kept manufacturing employment at its highest level (12.880 million) since November, 2008’s 13.034 million.

October’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the broadest sub-sectors tracked by the U.S. Labor Department were:

>the computer and electronics products industries, which boosted employment by 5,400 – its best such perfomance since the 6,300 workers added in June, 2020, early during the strong recovery from the first wave of the CCP Virus.

Revisions overall were mixed, though. September’s initially reported increase of 400 was downgraded to a loss of 500. August’s performance was first downgraded from a 4,500 increase to a 3,600 advance and then back up to one of 4,200. And July’s originally reported ise of 3,300 remained at 4,200 after being revised up to 3,900.

Consequently, computer and electronics employment is now up 1.41 percent since February, 2020, versus the 0.94 percent calculable as of last month. And although the increase seems small, it’s important to remember that these companies only cut headcounts modestly during the deep but short recession brought on by the virus’ first wave and lockdowns and voluntary behavior curbs it sparked;

>fabricated metal products, whose payrolls climbed by 5,200. Revisions were negative on balance. September’s initially reported increase of 6,300 – the best since May’s 6,600 – was revised down to 5,500. August’s improvement, already downgraded from 4,700 to 2,800, was upgraded to 3,100. And after an upgrade from 4,200 to 4,600, July’s increase is now judged to be 4,300.

Yet this big sector’s employment closed to within 1.04 percent of its February, 2020 level, versus the 1.36 percent gap that remained as of last month;

>transportation equipment, another very big group of industries, which expanded headcounts by 4,700 in October. Revisions? They were huge and generally positive. September’s initially reported increase of 8,400 was revised down to 4,700. But August’s figures, which had been upgraded all the way from a 2,400 gain to one of 10,500 saw a near-doubling 20,900 – the best such total since March’s 25,000 burst. July, also massively upgraded from a 2,200 increase to one of 12,600, remained at a further upgraded 13,600.

These revisions were enough to push transportation equipment employment higher than its February, 2020 level for the first time (though by just 0.14 percent). As of last month’s jobs report, these industries’ workforces were still 0.52 percent below; and

>non-metallic mineral products, a smallish sector that made 3,200 net new hires in October, and enjoyed generally positive revisions. September’sinitially reported 1,500 loss was upgraded to one of just 200. August’s original 2,800 gain was revised up a second time – from 3,400 to 4,100. But July’s initially reported 1,000 increase remained at a downwardly revised 700 improvement after being upgraded to 1,100.

October’s biggest manufacturing jobs losers among the broadest sub-sectors tracked by the U.S. Labor Department were:

>wood products, where employment slipped by 900, and revisions were generally negative. September’s initially reported gain of 2,200 – this sector’s best since May’s 3,600 – is now judged to be no gain. August’s initially reported loss of 100, first revised down to one of 600, it now estimated as a fall-off of 2,200 – the worst performance since the 30,200 nosedive in April, 2020, when the pandemic-driven downturn was at its worst. At least July’s initially reported rise of 200 has been upgraded to one of 700 and finally to 1,300.

These setbacks drove wood products jobs levels down from 6.76 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, to 5.60 percent greater since then;

>textile mills, whose jobs decline of 700 was its weakest such perfomance since the same decline in January. Revisions were slightly positive. September’s initially 500-jobs reduction is now estimated as a gain of 300. August’s initially reported loss of 400 jobs has now been gone unrevised twice, and July’s initially reported decrease of 600 has now gone unrevised three straight times.

Textile mill employment has now shrunk by 6.94 percent since February, 2020, versus the 7.03 percent retreat calculable last month; and .

>textile product mills, which saw an employment dip of 600. Revisions were slight and mixed. September’s initially reported payroll loss of 700 stayed unrevised. August’s initially reported employee decrease of 1,000 was first upgraded to one of 800 but then revised back down to 900 (the worst since an identical contraction in September, 2021). And July’s results, first upgraded to no change and then revised down to a decrease of 100 are now judged as a flat-line.

Still, whereas last month, textile product mill payrolls were down by 6.59 percent versus their numbers just before the pandemic struck, the gap has now widened to 7.22 percent.

Two industries followed closely by RealityChek throughout the CCP Virus period registered good employment gains in October.

The automotive sector saw jobs growth of 4,800 – and that was its worst performance since it shed 14,000 positions in February. As with the broader transportation equipment sector in which it’s placed, revisions were dramatic and generally positive. September’s initially reported increase of 8,300 was revised down to 7,400. But after having been upgraded from a drop of 1,900 to a rise of 4,000, August’s results were then revised all the way up to 12,100 – the best gain since March’s 18,400 surge. And July’s initially reported decrease of 2,200 has been upgraded to an increase first of 3,600 and then to its final figure of 8,400.

These gyrations brought automotive employment 3.54 percent above its February, 2020 levels, as opposed to the 2.33 percent calculable last month.

Machinery, a manufacturing and economy bellwether because its products are so widely used, generated good jobs news in October, too, with net hiring hitting 3,000 – the best such performance since April’s 5,800 increase. September’s initially reported decline of 1,700 (the worst since last November’s 7,000) was upgraded to one of just 300. August’s gains were upgraded to 2,800 after having been revised down from that level to 2,200. But July’s initially reported increase of 3,400 stayed at the 2,800 level estimated after being downwardly revised to 3,300.

Machinery employment has now closed to within 0.90 percent of its level in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 1.40 percent shortfall calculable last month.

As known by RealityChek regulars, data for several other industries of special interest since the CCP Virus arrived in force are always a month behind the figures for these broader categories. Unfortunately, their September results varied considerably.

The semiconductor industry, whose shortages have bedeviled numerous other manufacturing sectors (especially vehicle and parts makers), grew headcount by 800 – which seems OK until you realize that this increase was its smallest since March’s 400. Revisions were mixed, with August’s initially reported 1,200 increase upgraded to 1,500; and July’s initially reported 2,300 advance was downgraded to 2,200 (still the best such result since the payrolls jumped by 3,000 in June, 2020, during the first pandemic wave recovery) and then unchanged.

Employment in the sector is now up 5.74 percent since just before the virus’ arrival in force, versus the 5.15 percent calculable last month. But as with the broader computer and electronics products category in which it’s placed, it needs to be remembered that semiconductor makers cut almost no jobs during the height of the pandemic.

Aircraft manufacturers added 1,300 jobs on month in September, and revisions were positive. August’s initially reported 1,300 increase was upgraded to 1,700, and July’s initially reported 2,400 gain remained at an upwardly revised 2,500 – their best such results since June, 2021’s 4,400.

U.S. aircraft manufacturing has been harmed not only by the pandemic-era travel restrictions, but by Boeing’ssafety woes. But the recent increases have pulled employment by these companies to within 7.41 percent of their immediate pre-CCP Virus levels, versus the 8.11 percent calculable last month.

This progress, however, didn’t extend to the rest of the aerospace indsustry. Aircraft engines- and engine parts-makers reduced payrolls by 100 in September – the first decrease since July, 2021’s 200. But the August and July results of job growth of 800 each were left unrevised. (The initial July estimate was 900.)

Payrolls in this sector are now 8.83 percent lower than in February, 2020, versus the 8.62 percent calculable last month.

Non-engine aircraft parts- and equipment-makers lowered their headcounts by an even greater 500, and evisions were mixed. August’s initially reported net new hiring of 1,100 was upgraded to 1,300 (the best such result since January’s 1,400). But July’s initially reported loss of 600 jobs stayed at a downgraded one of 800 (the worst such performance since December’s 900).

Consequently, these companies’ payrolls have now shrunk by 14.36 percent since the pandemic first struck, versus the 14.10 percent calculable last month.

Employment also dipped in the surgical appliances and supplies category, which supplies so many of the Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and other medical products used to fight the pandemic. But even though the industry cut 200 jobs in September (the first monthly loss since June’s 800), revisions were positive. August’s initially reported gain of 700 was revised up to one of 900 (the best since March’s 1,000), and July’s results, first pegged at a 700 gain, remained at an upwardly revised increase of 800.

Surgical appliances and supplies employment is now up by 5.11 percent since February, 2020, versus the 4.11 percent calculable last month.

Results were mixed as well in pharmaceuticals and medicines. Companies in that category boosted payrolls by 1,000 in September, but revisions were significantly negative. August’s initially reported job growth of 1,700 was downgraded to an increase of 300, and July’s results, first estimated as a gain of 500 positions, remained as a downwardly revised loss of 1,000 – the worst such result since an identical reduction in March, 2019 – before the pandemic.

Employment in this industry is still much higher than just before the pandemic’s arrival, but by 11.58 percent versus the 11.71 percent calculable last month.

And in the medicines subsector containing vaccines, those companies expanded headcounts by 200 in September, but revisions were mixed, too. August’s initially reported 900 jobs increase is now estimated as a loss of 600 (the biggest drop since the 1,100 positions eliminated in December, 2018), but July’s initially reported cut of 200 remained at an upwardly revised decrease of 100.

Up 26.90 percent from February, 2020 levels as of last month, payrolls in this subsector are now 25.58 percent higher.

The short-term employment outlook for U.S.-based manufacturing looks unusually uncertain even by the unusually high standards of an American economy that’s still greatly distorted by the pandemic and pandemic responses.  Reasons for optimism? They include the vast amount of money American households and businesses still have to spend, which should keep propping up domestic demand for American manufactures, the lag between the time when Federal Reserve inflation-fighting tightening began and the time when it starts meaningfully slowing economic activity, and the continued easing of supply chain snags. And the new legislation to revive U.S. semiconductor manufacturing should start generating more hiring in that sector and its suppliers before too long. 

At the same time, pessimists can point to developments like a widely forecast global slowdown bound to reduce foreign demand for U.S. domestic manufactures; manufacturing giant China’s insistence on keeping its Zero Covid policy, which has seriously disrupted both the economy of the People’s Republic and worldwide transportation networks;  and continued high inflation (including for the energy used by U.S.-based industry) that presumably will start giving American spenders pause at some point. (The interest rate-sensitive housing sector, a big user of manufactured products, is already reeling from Fed tightening.)    

So just like the Fed, RealityChek will stay data dependent as it monitors and especially prognosticates on domestic manufacturing’s future.         

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: How Much Longer Can U.S. Manufacturers Keep Adding Jobs?

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aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, automotive, chemicals, Employment, fabricated metals products, food products, Jobs, Labor Department, machinery, manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products, pharmaceuticals, plastics and rubber products, printing, semiconductors, surgical equipment, transportation equipment, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Maybe the next sets of official figures will show that U.S.-based manufacturing is finally succumbing to a series of formidable obstacles that have been placed in its way recently and not-so-recently: signs of a slowing U.S. economy, a Federal Reserve whose anti-inflation policies seem certain to undercut growth, major troubles in the big export markets so important to domestic industry, a super-strong dollar that harms its price-competitiveness all over the world, and continuing supply chain snags.

As of the September jobs data released on Friday, however, domestic industry has continued to hire – which is almost always a sign of optimism.

Manufacturers in the United States increased their payrolls by 22,000 on net last month, and revisions overall were positive. The August employment rise was upgraded from 22,000 to 29,000, July’s results were revised up a second time, to 37,000, and the June numbers, originally reported as a gain of 29,000, have been brought down only to 27,000 and finally (for now!) 25,000.

These advances pushed manufacturing headcounts 0.74 percent above their levels in February, 2020 – the last data month before the CCP Virus pandemic began massively weakening and distorting the entire economy. As of last month’s jobs report, the pandemic-era gain had been 0.52 percent.

Industry’s jobs comeback hasn’t been quite as strong as that staged by the overall private sector (where employment is up by 0.86 percent since February, 2020). But that’s partly because domestic manufacturing lost fewer jobs relatively speaking than the rest of the economy (still dominated by the pandemic-devastated service sector) during the CCP Virus-induced nosesdive.

In addition, with government employment at all levels still down 2.61 percent since February, 2020, manufacturing has added more jobs proportionately than the total U.S. non-farm payrolls sector (NFP – Washington’s definition of the American employment universe) – whose workforce is up by just 0.34 percent during this period.

September’s increase left manufacturing employment at the same share of private sector employment as calculable from August’s jobs report (9.85 percent), and up from its 9.83 percent share just before the pandemic struck in full force. But as a percentage of NFP, manufacturing jobs inched up from the 8.41 percent calculable last month to 8.42 percent – a nice improvement from its 8.38 percent share in February, 2020.

Domestic industry’s employment progress is also evident from historical comparisons. At 12.880 million, its workforce remains the biggest since November, 2008’s 13.034 million. Last month’s initially reported 12.852 million manufacturing workers were the highest figure only since July, 2019’s 12.832 million.

September’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the broadest sub-sectors tracked by the U.S. Labor Department were:

>transportation equipment, which added 8,400 workers on month. Revisions, moreover, were strongly positive. August’s initially reported 2,400 growth was upgraded all the way up to 10,500. July’s results have now been revised up from 2,200 to 12,600 to and now 13,600 (the best monthly figure since March’s 25,000 burst). And after having been downgraded from 7,200 to 4,300, June’s final jobs improvement stayed at an upgraded 5,700.

These increases mean that employment in this sector is now down just 0.52 percent since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 1.52 percent gap that had remained as of last month;

>food manufacturing, whose hiring of 7,800 net new workers was its best monthly performance since February’s 11,100 rise. Revisions were generally positive, too. August’s initially reported 2,400 job loss is now pegged as a drop of just 1,000. After a downward revision from a 1,800 rise to one of 1,600, July’s increase is now pegged at 5,000. But June’s number was downgraded again – from an initially reported 4,800 increase to one of 3,500 to one of 2,400.

Consequently, employment in food manufacturing is now 3.40 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 2.64 percent increase calculable last month.

>fabricated metals products, which continued its hiring tear in September by boosting employment by 6,300 – its best such performance since May’s 6,600. Revisions were mized, though. August’s initially reported gain of 4,700 has been dialed back to 2,800, and after having been upgraded from a 4,200 increase to one of 4,600, July’s job creation is now pegged at 4,300. Along with June’s downwardly revised final result of a 200-job gain, these results brought the sector’s employment to within 1.36 percent of its immediate pre-CCP Virus levels, versus the 1.64 percent calculable last month; and

>chemicals, where the headcount climbed by 3,400 on month in September. Revisions, moreover, were positive, with August’s initially reported increase of 3,500 revised up to 3,900, July’s downgraded 2,900 gain revised back up to 4,100 (the best such result since May’s 5,100), and June’s increase staying at an upgraded 3,900.

This big sector has now expanded its employment since February, 2020 by 6.68 percent, versus the 6.09 percent calculable last month.

The biggest September manufacturing jobs losers among these broad categories were:

>printing and related support activities, which lost 4,000 jobs sequentially in September– its worst monthly performance since the 73,100 catastrophe of April, 2020, during the worst of the pandemic. And revisions overall were negative. August’s initially reported 1,100 payroll increase is now pegged at just 700. July’s initially reported 2,000 employment rise was downgraded a second time – to 400. June’s results, though, were upgraded a second time – from a initially reported 900 jobs decrease to an advance of 100.

But all told, this sector’s workforce has now fallen by 11.11 percent since just before the pandemic hit the U.S. economy in full force, versus the 9.78 percent calculable last month

>machinery, whose 1,700 employment reduction in September was its worst such performance since May’s 800 decline, and especially discourgaging since its products are so widely used throughout the economy. Worse, revisions were negative. August’s initially reported 2,800 jobs increase is now pegged at 2,200, July’s gains have been downgraded a second time – from 3,400 to 3,300 to 2,800. But at least June’s improvement remained at an upgraded 2,400.

Employment in this crucial industry is now off by 1.40 percent since February, 2020, versus 1.15 percent calculable last month;

>non-metallic mineral products, where the workforce sank by 1,500 in September for its worst monthly performance since May, 2021’s 5,300 drop. Revisions, however, were slightly positive. August’s initially reported hiring of 2,800 was revised up to 3,400 – the best monthly increase since last December’s identical total. July’s initially reported advance of 1,000 was revised down to one of 700 after having been upgraded to 1,100. But June’s initially reported employment dip of 400 is now juded to have been an increase of 700.

Yet employment in the non-metallic minerals sector dropped back to 1.47 percent below its February, 2020 levels, versus the 1.05 percent calculable last month; and

>plastics and rubber products, whose 1,400 September jobs decline was its worst such performance since payrolls sank by 4,400 in September, 2021. Revisions were negative, too. The initially reported August increase of 900 is now estimated to have been only 100. After being upgraded from a gain of 1,200 to one of 1,400, plastics and rubber employment is now judged to have retreated 400 in July. And June’s increase stayed at a sharply downgraded 2,400.

Whereas last month’s jobs report showed that employment in this sector had climbed by 4.23 percent during the pandemic era, that figure now stands at 3.65 percent.

Most sectors of special interest since the CCP Virus’ early 2020 arrival turned in good recent hiring numbers.

>The automotive sector, whose employment volatility has influenced many of manufacturing’s monthly employment performances during the pandemic period, boosted its payrolls by 8,300 in September, and overall revisions were exceptionally strong. August’s initially reported job loss of 1,900 is now recorded as a gain of 4,000. July’s results have been revised up from a 2,200 drop to a 3,600 rise to an advance of 8,400 (the best such results since March’s 18,400 jump). And June’s initially reported increase of 2,100 has been modestly downgraded to one of 1,700.

Jobs in vehicle- and parts-making is now 2.33 percent above its February, 2020 levels, versus the increase of 0.44 percent calculable last month.

As always, the most detailed employment data for other pandemic-related industries are one month behind those in the broader categories, but most turned in solid August performances, too.

The shortage-plagued semiconductor industry added 1,200 workers on month in August, and revisions were modestly mixed. July’s initially reported 2,300 increase (the best since June, 2020’s 3,000) was downgraded to 2,200, but June’s totals stayed at a slightly upgraded 1,900.

Semiconductor employment is now 5.15 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 4.36 percent calculable last month. But don’t forget: These increases have been held down to an extent by the baseline effect, since semiconductor companies kept hiring modestly on net during the worst of the pandemic.

Aircraft manufacturers hired 1,300 workers in August, and revisions were mixed. July’s initially reported employment increase of 2,400 (the best such performance since June, 2021’s 4,400) was revised up to 2,500, but June’s advance stayed at a downgraded 1,200.

As a result, aircraft manufacturing payrolls closed to within 8.11 percent of their February, 2020 totals, versus the 8.69 percent calculable last month.

Aircraft engines- and engine parts-makers hired 400 new workers in August but revisions were negative. July’s initially reported 900 increase is now estimated at 800, and June’s increase stayed at a downwardly revised 700.

Aircraft engines and engine parts-makers now employ just 8.62 percent fewer workers than in February, 2020, versus the 8.94 percent calculable last month.

The 1,100 August employment increase in non-engine aircraft parts and equipment represented its best monthly performance since January’s 1,400. But revisions here were mixed as well, with July’s initially reported 600 jobs decline now pegged at 800 (the worst such performance since last December’s decrease of 900), but June’s totals stayed at an upgraded 900.

These companies’ payrolls are now 14.10 percent lower than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 versus the 14.88 percent calculable last month.

The surgical appliances and supplies category has been in the national spotlight throughout the pandemic era, since it includes personal protective equipment and other anti-virus medical goods. Its August headcount increase totaled 700 and July’s upgrade from 700 new hires to 800 produced its best employment creation month since March’s 1,100. June’s job loss of 800 stayed unrevised, though.

These companies have now boosted their post-February, 2020 workforces by 4.11 percent, versus the 4.36 percent calculable last month.

The large pharmaceuticals and medicines raised employment by 1,700 in August, but revisions were mixed. July’s initially reported job decline of 500 is now judged to be 1,000, but June’s hiring spurt of 4,000 – the industry’s best since the 1990 start of the data series – stayed intact.

These employment ups and downs left job levels in this sector now 11.71 percent higher since February, 2020 versus the 11.32 percent calculable last month.

As for the medicines subsector containing vaccines, it boosted its employees by 900 in August. July’s initially reported 200 job loss was upgraded to one of 100, but June’s improvement stayed at a slightly downgraded 900.

This subsector’s workforce is now 26.90 percent larger than just before the pandemic struck in full force, versus the 25.89 percent calculable last month.

At this point, it’s difficult to imagine domestic industry continuing to overcome the headwinds mentioned in the lead paragraph – at least for much longer. But a few years ago, even keeping in mind the mammoth stimulus poured into the economy recently. it would have been difficult imagining U.S.based manufacturing overcoming a worldwide pandemic, an equally worldwide transport and logistics crisis, a major war in Europe, and raging inflation – not to mention a serious tigthening of credit conditions, aimed at taming that inflation, following decades of super-easy money.

The bottom line seems to be a sector that – like the economy as a whole – is standing on a knife edge, but whose record of resilience lately shouldn’t be forgotten too quickly.