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Business Roundtable, Congress, fast track, globalization, Im-Politic, Jobs, Obama, polls, public opinion, TPA, TPP, Trade, Trans-Pacific Partnership, wages
With some of the political stars in Washington lining up for approval of new trade negotiation authority for President Obama, along with passage of new Pacific Rim and Europe trade deals once they’re concluded, it seems opportune to see how the public’s feeling. Unfortunately, the latest data should remind us once again that polling on trade is just about the least reliable form of polling we have.
One big reason has to do with clashing results, most recently revealed in two surveys conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. The Chicago Council’s findings came out in September, as part of its newest overall survey of public opinion on foreign policy issues, and should warm hearts (if such exist) in the offshoring lobby.
According to the Council, 65 percent of Americans regard “globalization, especially the increasing connections of our economy with others around the world [as] mostly good…for the United States” – up from a recent low of 56 percent in 2010, when the current economic recovery was still in its infancy. The share considering globalization defined this way as “mostly bad” was 34 percent – down from a recent (2010) peak of 41 percent.
Similarly, half of respondents favored “agreements to lower trade barriers provided the government has programs to help workers who lose their jobs” and 14 percent supported such deals even with no jobs programs. Those numbers are also up from recent 2010 lows of 43 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
Even better for the globalization cheerleaders, both the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and a comparable deal with Europe garnered 60-plus percent approval ratings.
Not so good for supporters of the trade status quo were the Pew results, which came out in October. A somewhat different tack was taken, as the poll examined U.S. And foreign views of trade and globalization. It’s true that, according to Pew, 68 percent of Americans agreed this year that “ growing trade and business ties with other countries was a good thing” – up from a recent low of 53 percent.
But the more specific the questioning, the more dimly Americans viewed trade. Indeed, only 20 percent believed that it “creates jobs” versus 50 percent convinced that it “destroys jobs.” And only 17 percent viewed trade as a force that raised wages, versus 45 percent seeing trade as a wage killer. (BTW, it’s interesting to see how these American opinions compare with those abroad.)
It should be clear that the phrasing of questions has much to do with the answers produced. Neither the Chicago Council nor the Pew survey used wording as tendentious as that in a Business Roundtable poll from March. It found 75 percent public support for “the United States negotiating trade agreements to open foreign markets for American-made goods and services to ensure fair and enforceable rules for U.S. trade with other countries?” That’s about as valuable as asking whether the public favors “policies to make everyone happy, secure, and wealthy.” More to the point — how many American trade deals have yielded those promised results?
But the more recent polls did nothing to inform Americans about the real-world choices presented by Washington’s trade policy, or about the deficit-boosting record and other consequences of two decades worth of signed trade deals and other decisions. So as they consider how to vote on trade agreements whenever they come up, lawmakers genuinely interested in voters’ views will have to discern them the old-fashioned way – by asking them directly.
RealityChek 
Increased immigration is also subject to a flood of very similar polls, carefully crafted by skilled corporate PR, that claim to show great support for ‘reform.’ When asked, which is very seldom, the American people first want enforcement of the law. They hunger and thirst for justice.
From CNN in 2012:
“As for immigration, the new survey indicates three-quarters of Americans support the contentious Arizona law that allows police to arrest or detain suspected illegal immigrants during the enforcement of other laws.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/08/cnn-poll-americans-weigh-in-on-health-care-immigration/
If you pose your immigration reform question with great care you can get strong support, as in this Bloomberg poll:
‘About three-quarters say they favor a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants with no criminal records who pay back taxes and fines and wait more than a decade, the centerpiece of the pending bill.’
But Bloomberg didn’t get the memo from corporate, and also asked another question:
‘Almost two-thirds also said they back deporting those already here illegally, and sealing the border so no others come in violation of U.S. laws.’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-06/immigration-law-helps-economy-say-americans-split-on-bill.html
The exact same people carefully coaxed into backing reform by reciting a series of restrictions the people favor, would start by booting out and keeping out illegals.
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The only poll that meant something recently was liberal Oregon voting 2-1 against giving driver’s licenses to illegals. The American people are totally against legalization, but the establishment is completely in favor, so the dear leader does it by fiat.
Sorry for the delay, but thanks for this excellent point and documentation! Actually, entirely too many polls on matters international generally are disgracefully bad, often tendentiously describing alternatives and limiting choices listed to options that are ridiculously simplistic — when they’re not outright straw men!