Glad I Didn’t Say That! Fuzzy Math on Trump Tariffs and Tax Cuts

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Glad I Didn't Say That!, middle class, tariffs, tax cuts, taxes, Trade, Trump

“If the administration is serious about further reducing the tax burden on the middle class, the easiest and most effective solution is to walk back…misguided tariffs and avoid imposing additional trade policies that would further increase taxes and destroy jobs.”

– Scott Hodge, President, Tax Foundation, October 30, 2018

 

Size of proposed Trump administration middle-class tax cut: 10 percent

Tax Foundation estimate of bite on after-tax middle-class incomes from all current and threatened Trump tariffs: 1.37 percent

 

(Sources: “Trump wants to cut middle-clas taxes. The easiest solution? Repeal Tariffs,” by Scott Hodge, Washington Examiner, October 30, 2018, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/trump-wants-to-cut-middle-class-taxes-the-easiest-solution-repeal-tariffs)

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Glad I Didn’t Say That! Alcoa Flip-Flops on Aluminum Tariffs

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Alcoa, aluminum, Glad I Didn't Say That!, tariffs, Trade, Trump

“For investors who thought the 10% tariff on aluminum imports was supposed to be good for U.S. aluminum producers, Alcoa Chief Executive Roy Harvey explained on the post-earnings conference call with analysts why it’s actually the opposite. ‘First, because tariffs are driving only a limited increase in supply, U.S. imports will remain essential,’ Harvey said….”

– Marketwatch.com, July 22, 2018

 

“Alcoa actually benefited from the trade war, as CFO William Oplinger explained, ‘Our smelters benefited from tariffs pushing up the Midwest regional premiums, so the impact of tariffs was a net benefit to Alcoa of $27 million.’”

– Benzinga.com, October 18, 2018

 

(Sources: “Alcoa CEO explains why aluminum tariffs are hurting, not helping,” by Tomi Kilgore, Marketwatch.com, July 22, 2018, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-trump-administrations-aluminum-tariffs-are-hurting-alcoa-more-than-helping-2018-07-19 & “Alcoa Rises After Crushing Earnings, But Market Cycles Point In The Other Direction,” by Steve Miller, Benzinga.com, October 18,  2018, https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/18/10/12530003/alcoa-rises-after-crushing-earnings-but-market-cycles-point-in-the-othe)

Glad I Didn’t Say That: More Fake News on Trump Tariffs Fallout

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business spending, Catherine Rampell, core capex, Glad I Didn't Say That!, tariffs, Trade, Trump, uncertainty

“Threats of additional tariffs and lingering uncertainty over trade policy are also causing firms to reevaluate or delay investment, as University of Chicago Booth School of Business professor Steven J. Davis noted recently.”

– Catherine Rampell, The Washington Post, September 3, 2018

U.S. “core capex”* spending since first Trump non-trade law tariffs (late March): +0.92 percent

U.S. “core capex” spending during comparable (April-June) period, 2017:  -0.03 percent

U.S. “core capex” spending during same period, 2016: -1.63 percent

U.S. “core capex” spending, advance reading, June-July, 2018: +1.40 percent

*business spending on non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft

(Sources: “Trump promised farmers ‘smarter’ trade deals. Now he has to bail them out,” by Catherine Rampell, The Washington Post, September 3, 2018; New Orders, Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft; Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, Time Series/Trend Charts, Business and Industry, U.S. Census Bureau; “Monthly Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders,” Release Number: CB 18-118 M3-1 (18)-07, U.S. Census Bureau, August 24, 2018, https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf)

Glad I Didn’t Say That: No Obama Learning Curve on Immigration

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Barack Obama, crime, Ed Gillespie, Fairfax County, gang violence, gangs, Glad I Didn't Say That!, illegal immigrants, illegal immigration, immigrants, Immigration, MS-13, Virginia, Virginia governor's race

“[I]n Fairfax County [Virginia] MS-13 related incidents in the first 4 months of this year jumped more than 160 percent compared with 2015.”

—WJLA.com, Washington, D.C., June 30, 2016

“This [MS-13] problem is horrible. This is four murders in this park. Obviously, we’ve had other murders in the region in the past few weeks. This is getting out of control and we need to stop it.”

—Fairfax County police chief Ed Roessler, March 3, 2017

“Along with Los Angeles, ICE [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] considers Northern Virginia a hub for MS-13.”

—Fox5DC.com, Washington, D.C., July 27, 2017

Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie’s ads spotlighting MS-13 threat are “really trying to deliver…fear. What he really believes is if you scare enough voters, you might score just enough votes to win an election. It’s just as cynical as politics gets.”

—Former President Barack Obama, October 19, 2017

Glad I Didn’t Say That! Laughable Claims of China Smog Progress

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air pollution, China, environment, Glad I Didn't Say That!, smog, The New York Times

I’m pleased to announce the introduction of a new category of posts on RealityChek – which I’ll be calling “Glad I Didn’t Say That!” These items will consist of examples of statements made by prominent American leaders, economists, businessmen, journalists, and others that are flatly contradicted either by readily available facts and/or data – and sometimes even by other statements made by these individuals themselves, or by the governments, companies, universities, news organizations, or other institutions with with they’re associated. Prominent among these will be predictions about policy decisions, like trade agreements, that have been wildly off-base.

In my quarter century (!) of writing about these topics, it’s become clear to me both that such statements and contradictions are not only in massive oversupply, but that the ineptitude they reveal is rarely, if ever, covered. The inevitable result: Individuals and institutions that should enjoy zero credibility on any number of public issues continue to be taken seriously – often with disastrous policy consequences.

In other words, “Glad I Didn’t Say That!” is another effort on RealityChek to introduce the idea of accountability into American policy and politics. And because crowd-sourcing is such an effective and exciting new way to share information and accomplish important goals, I invite all eagle-eye readers to send me any examples you believe deserve highlighting. One tip: the simpler and more straightforward, the better!

And here’s the first in this new series – which also shows the format I’ll be using. Revealingly, it comes from the same newspaper – on the same day!

“China Has Made Strides in Addressing Air Pollution, Environmentalist Says”

–The New York Times, December 16, 2016

“Beijing, Bracing for 5 Days of Heavy Pollution, Issues Red Alert”

–The New York Times, December 16, 2016

(Sources: “China Has Made Strides in Addressing Air Pollution, Environmentalist Says,” by Didi Kirsten Tatlow, The New York Times, December 16, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/16/world/asia/china-air-pollution-ma-jun.html and “Beijing, Bracing for 5 Days of Heavy Pollution, Issues Red Alert,” by Jane Perlez, ibid., http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/16/world/asia/beijing-air-pollution.html?_r=0)