Those Stubborn Facts: Trade Deal or Not, U.S.-China Decoupling Continues

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CFIUS, China, Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, decoupling, FDI, foreign direct investment, national security, technology, Those Stubborn Facts

“The data [do] not identify the origin of the buyers who abandoned their investments. But attorneys who handle CFIUS [the U.S. inter-agency Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States] cases said many are probably Chinese companies caught in a Trump administration campaign to stymie their efforts to acquire sensitive U.S. technology.”

Share of proposed foreign buys of U.S. assets abandoned due to U.S. government “national security concerns,” recent years:

2014-16: 4-5 percent annually

2017: 14 percent

2018: 11 percent

(Source: “More foreign firms halted U.S. deals amid Trump administration scrutiny: report,” by Alexandra Alper, Reuters, November 22, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-investment-trump/more-foreign-firms-halted-u-s-deals-amid-trump-administration-scrutiny-report-idUSKBN1XW1VJ)

Those Stubborn Facts: The Latest on Immigration and Wages

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blue-collar workers, Immigration, Those Stubborn Facts, wages

Net change in U.S. immigrant inflows, 2017-18: -70 percent

Change in U.S. real wages for all workers, 2017-18: +1.30 percent

Best annual increase since: 2014 (1.82 percent)

Improvement over 2016-17 wage change: 196.7 percent

Change in U.S. real wages for blue-collar workers, 2017-18: 1.63 percent

Best annual increase since: 2015 (2.23 percent)

Improvement over 2016-2017 wage change: 675.6 percent

 

(Sources: “Immigrant Population Growth in the U.S. Slows to a Trickle,” by Sabrina Tavernise, The New York Times, September 27, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/us/census-immigration.html; Average hourly earnings of all employees, 1982-1984 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted, Total private, Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject, Data Tools, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor; and Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, 1982-84 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted, Total private, Ibid.)

Those Stubborn Facts: Innovation Machine?

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Bell Labs, IBM, innovation, National Affairs, Oren Cass, Silicon Valley, tech, Those Stubborn Facts

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers at Bell Labs: 8

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers at IBM: 5

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers funded by a Silicon          Valley firm: 0

 

(Source: “Putting Dynamism in Its Place,” by Oren Cass, National Affairs, No. 39, Spring, 2019, https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/putting-dynamism-in-its-place)

Those Stubborn Facts: Another “Tariff Man”

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Abraham Lincoln, tariffs, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, Trump

“The internet mocks Donald Trump’s new super-hero alter ego ‘Tariff Man.’”

—Mashable.com, December 4, 2018

“In the days of Henry Clay I was a Henry Clay-tariff-man; and my views have undergone no material change upon that subject.”

–-Abraham Lincoln, May 12, 1860

 

(Sources: “The Internet mocks Donald Trump’s new super-hero alter-ego ‘Tariff Man,’” by Marcus Gilmer, Mashable.com, December 4, 2018, https://mashable.com/article/donald-trump-tariff-man-memes/#AabcVM_AYqq5; “To Edward Wallace,” Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln. Volume 4, The Abraham Lincoln Association, https://quod.lib.umich.edu/l/lincoln/lincoln4/1:40.1?rgn=div2;view=fulltext. Thanks to @TheMovement_USA)

Those Stubborn Facts: The Fading Henry Ford Wage Strategy

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automotive, autos, Henry Ford, manufacturing, Those Stubborn Facts, wages

Share of an average American factory worker’s annual earnings needed to buy the average new car, 1965: 25 percent

Share of an average American factory worker’s annual earnings needed to buy the average new car today: 59 percent

 

(Source: “Trump lashes GM plant closings as UAW prepares to defend jobs,” by Ted Evanoff, Memphis Commercial Appeal, November 28, 2018, https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/money/cars/2018/11/28/trump-lashes-gm-but-plant-closings-likely-even-uaw-prepares-defend-jobs/2137046002/)

Those Stubborn Facts: When U.S. Immigration Bottomed, Unions Peaked

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immigrants, Immigration, labor, Population Reference Bureau, The New Republic, Those Stubborn Facts, unions

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“American labor’s peak decade”: the 1930s

—The New Republic, October 2, 2018

Decade during which legal immigration into the U.S. bottomed*: the 1930s

—Population Reference Bureau, May 9, 2014

*since the 1830s

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(Sources: “America’s Missing Labor Party,” by David Sessions, The New Republic, October 2, 2018, https://newrepublic.com/article/151119/americas-missing-labor-party-book-review-erik-loomis-history-ten-strikes; “Trends in Migration to the U.S.,” by Philip Martin, Population Reference Bureau, May 9, 2014, https://www.prb.org/us-migration-trends/)

Those Stubborn Facts: No Doubt Among Global Investors About the Trade Wars Winner

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investors trade, stock markets, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, trade wars

Performance of U.S. stock market and major markets in countries running big trade surpluses with the United States, June 14*-July 12, 2018:

U.S. Wilshire 5000: +0.5 percent

China Shanghai Composite: -6.8 percent

South Korea KOSPI: -5.7 percent

Germany DAX: -4.7 percent

Japan Nikkei: -2.4 percent

*Date when Trump administration announced initial “hit list” of tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods

(Source: “Stock Markets See the US Winning the Trade War, Defying Corporate Lobby & Media Propaganda,” by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street, July 12, 2018, https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/12/stock-markets-see-the-us-winning-the-trade-war-defying-corporate-lobby-media-propaganda/.  HT to John Laich.)

Those Stubborn Facts: Why Trade-Related Job Loss Really Does Matter

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automation, China, Jobs, National Bureau of Economic Research, robots, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade

Number of net U.S. jobs lost to “expanded trade with China”, 1999-2016: 2.65 million

Number of net U.S. jobs lost to “adoption of industrial robots,” 1999-2016: 1.40 million

(Source: “Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence,” by Katharine G. Abraham and Melissa S. Kearney, NBER Working Paper No. 24333, Labor Studies Program, National Bureau of Economic Research, February, 2018, http://www.nber.org/papers/w24333)

Those Stubborn Facts: Tight U.S. Labor Markets?

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Great Recession, Jobs, labor, strikes, Those Stubborn Facts, unions, work stoppages

Number of Major U.S. Work Stoppages*, 2017: 7

Number of Years Since 1947** with Fewer Such Stoppages: 1

The Year with Fewest Such Stoppages: 2009 (Great Recession)

*Defined as events “involving 1,000 or more workers and lasting at least one shift.”

** Starting date of this Bureau of Labor Statistics series.

(Source: “Major Work Stoppages in 2017,” News Release USDL-18-0206, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, February 9, 2018, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkstp.pdf )

Those Stubborn Facts: What Trump Voters Say They Want

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2016 election, Immigration, infrastructure, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, Trump

Non-College-Educated Whites’ Stated Top 2016 Presidential Election Issue Priorities*:

Building a Border Wall: 31%

Imposing Tariffs on Predatory U.S. Trade Partners: 65%

Improving Infrastructure: 65%

*From a January, 2017 survey

(Source: “With Fireworks, Washington Returns to the Core Trump Agenda,” by Gerald F. Seib, The Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-fireworks-washington-returns-to-the-core-trump-agenda-1516035795?mod=e2tw(