Those Stubborn Facts: How Badly Economists Whiffed on Inflation

Tags

economists, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve, FOMC, inflation, Jason Furman, Project Syndicate, Those Stiubborn Facts

Number of Federal Reserve policy-making Open Market Committee

members* who expected 2021 U.S. inflation to top 2.5 percent: None

 

Median 2021 U.S. inflation forecast of private sector

economists surveyed in May of last year: 2.3 percent

 

Likely final 2021 U.S. inflation rate: 4.5 percent

 

* who number 18

(Source: “Why Did Almost Nobody See Inflation Coming?” by Jason Furman, Project Syndicate, January 17, 2022, Why Did Almost Nobody See Inflation Coming? by Jason Furman – Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org) )

Those Stubborn Facts: A World Awash in Debt

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bubble, China, debt, economy, Those Stubborn Facts, United States

Number of countries (including the U.S. and China) whose total debt

was more than three times greater than the size of their economies,

mid-1990s: None

 

Number of countries (including the U.S. and China) whose total debt

is more than three times greater than the size of their economies,

now: 25

 

(Source: “Ten economic trends that could define 2022,” by Ruchir Sharma, Financial Times, January 3, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/432d78ee-6163-402e-8950-d961b4b1312b)

Those Stubborn Facts: Europe’s Still Wide Open to Chinese Investment

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China, EU, European Union, FDI, foreign direct investment, national security, Those Stubborn Facts

Number of European Union countries with systems for screening

foreign direct investment to protect national security & other key

interests: 18 of 27

 

Number of proposed investments examined: 265

 

Number of proposed investments blocked: 8

 

Share of examined investments that came from China: 8 percent

 

(Source: “Europe’s antitrust policy shouldn’t ignore China,” by Carisa Nietsche, Tech Crunch, December 28, 2021, Europe’s antitrust policy shouldn’t ignore China  | TechCrunch)

Those Stubborn Facts: American Public’s CCP Virus Panic Waning?

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cancer, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, heart disease, public health, Those Stubborn Facts, Wuhan virus

Share of Americans “very” or “somewhat” worried about

developing cancer: 50%

 

Share of Americans “very” or “somewhat” worried about

developing heart disease: 44%

 

Share of Americans “very” or “somewhat” worried about

developing Covid: 41%

 

Source: “Cancer, Heart Disease Worries Eclipse COVID-19”. By Megan Brenan, Gallup.com, December, 16, 2021, Cancer, Heart Disease Worries Eclipse COVID-19 (gallup.com) )

 

Those Stubborn Facts: Behind Biden’s Lousy Polls on the Economy

Tags

Biden administration, inflation, inflation-adjusted wages, real wages, Those Stiubborn Facts, Trump administration, wages, workers

After-inflation wages for all private sector workers, Feb.-Oct., 2020: (last Trump year):  +2.81 percent 

After-inflation wages for all private sector workers, Feb.-Oct., 2021 (first Biden year):  -1.84 percent  

After-inflation wages for private non-managerial workers, Feb.-Oct., 2020: +2.84 percent 

After-inflation wages for private non-managerial workers, Feb.-Oct., 2021: -1.53 percent  

 

(Sources: “Average hourly earnings of all employees, 1982-1984 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted,” Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National), Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject, Data Tools, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics Data (bls.gov) and “Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, 1982-84 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted,” Ibid.)

Those Stubborn Facts: How to Keep Inflating a China Bubble

Tags

bubbles, China, Evergrande, finance, investment, investors, property, real estate, Those Stubborn Facts, Wall Street

Share of global finance industry recommendations on China

investment that were “buys” at the start of this year, before its giant

real estate firms started going broke: 86 percent

 

Share of global finance industry recommendations on China

investment that are “buys” today, when its giant real estate firms

have started going broke: 87 percent

 

(Source: “Down Is Still Up for Foreign Investors Piling Into China,” by Nikos Chrysoloras and Abhishek Vishnoi, Bloomberg.com, October 16, 2021, China Stock Market: Down Is Still Up for Foreign Investors – Bloomberg)

 

Those Stubborn Facts: Haitian Migrants Not Present or Accounted For

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Biden adminisration, Biden border crisis, border security, catch and release, Del Rio, Haiti, Haitians, Immigration, migrants, Open Borders, Texas, Those Stubborn Facts

Biden administration count of number of Haitian migrants living

under Del Rio, Texas bridge at peak: 14,000

Biden administration count of Haitian migrants at Del Rio as of

yesterday: 4,000

Biden administration count of Haitian migrants from Del Rio

returned to Haiti as of yesterday: 1,400

Number of Haitian migrants from Del Rio released into the United

States despite Biden administration claim that “our borders are not

open”: 8,600?

 

(Sources: “Biden administration defends handling of Haitians amid uproar,” by Morgan Chalfant and Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, September, 23, 2021, Biden administration defends handling of Haitians amid uproar | TheHill and “Secretary Mayorkas Delivers Remarks in Del Rio, TX,” U.S. Department of Homeland Security, September 20, 2021, Secretary Mayorkas Delivers Remarks in Del Rio, TX | Homeland Security (dhs.gov) )

Those Stubborn Facts: How the U.S. Lost the Global Semiconductor Manufacturing Tech Lead

Tags

capex, capital spending, China, infotech, innovation, Intel, investment, manufacturing, microchips, national security, Samsung, semiconductors, South Korea, Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, tech, Those Stubborn Facts

“North America-” (i.e., U.S.-) Owned Firms’ Share of Global Semiconductor Capital Spending, 1990: 31 percent

“North America-” (i.e., U.S.-) Owned Firms’ Share of Global Semiconductor Capital Spending, 2019: 28 percent

“Asia-Pac/Others*- Owned Firms’ Share of Global Semiconductor Capital Spending, 1990: 10 percent

“Asia-Pac/Others*-Owned Firms’ Share of Global Semiconductor Capital Spending, 2019: 63 percent

*Excludes Japan. Includes Taiwan, South Korea, and China

(Source: “A Path to Success for the EU Semiconductor Industry,” by Michael Alexander and Thomas Kirschstein, Roland Berger, February 12, 2021, https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Insights/Publications/A-path-to-success-for-the-EU-semiconductor-industry.html)

Those Stubborn Facts: Race, Class, and Crime in NYC

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"Defund the Police", African Americans, Bronx, class, crime, Democrats, Eric Adams, Latinos, law enforcement, Manhattan, New York City, police, police brutality, policing, progressives, race, subways, Those Stubborn Facts, whites

Share of college-graduate New Yorkers wanting more police on the subway: 62%

Share of non-college-grad New Yorkers wanting more policy on the subway: 80%

Share of New Yorkers earning $50K-plus per year wanting more police on the subway: 66%

Share of New Yorkers earning less than $50K per year wanting more police on the subway: 75%

Share of white New Yorkers wanting more police on the subway: 62%

Share of Latino New Yorkers wanting more police on the subway: 69%

Share of African American New Yorkers wanting more police on the subway: 77%

Share of Manhattan-ites saying they feel safe from crime riding the subway: 65%

Share of Bronx residents saying they feel safe from crime riding the subway: 43%

(Sources: “Progressives in Denial About Crime Are Catering to Elites and Losing Elections,” by Zaid Jilani, Newsweek, July 14, 2021, Progressives in Denial About Crime Are Catering to Elites and Losing Elections | Opinion (newsweek.com) )

Those Stubborn Facts: U.S. Journalism Gets a Global Failing Grade, Too

Tags

fake news, journalism, Mainstream Media, news, news media, Those Stubborn Facts

Number of countries examined in Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism survey: 46

Overall level of “trust in the news”, 2021: 44 percent

Change from 2020: +8 percentage points

Level of “trust in the news” in the U.S., 2021: 29 percent

Change from 2020: None

U.S. journalism’s rank in trustworthiness: 46^th

(Sources: “Executive Summary and Key Findings of the 2021 Report,” Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2021, Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, June, 2021, pp. 9 ff, The Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2021 (ox.ac.uk))