Those Stubborn Facts: No Doubt Among Global Investors About the Trade Wars Winner

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investors trade, stock markets, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, trade wars

Performance of U.S. stock market and major markets in countries running big trade surpluses with the United States, June 14*-July 12, 2018:

U.S. Wilshire 5000: +0.5 percent

China Shanghai Composite: -6.8 percent

South Korea KOSPI: -5.7 percent

Germany DAX: -4.7 percent

Japan Nikkei: -2.4 percent

*Date when Trump administration announced initial “hit list” of tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods

(Source: “Stock Markets See the US Winning the Trade War, Defying Corporate Lobby & Media Propaganda,” by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street, July 12, 2018, https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/12/stock-markets-see-the-us-winning-the-trade-war-defying-corporate-lobby-media-propaganda/.  HT to John Laich.)

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Those Stubborn Facts: Why Trade-Related Job Loss Really Does Matter

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automation, China, Jobs, National Bureau of Economic Research, robots, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade

Number of net U.S. jobs lost to “expanded trade with China”, 1999-2016: 2.65 million

Number of net U.S. jobs lost to “adoption of industrial robots,” 1999-2016: 1.40 million

(Source: “Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence,” by Katharine G. Abraham and Melissa S. Kearney, NBER Working Paper No. 24333, Labor Studies Program, National Bureau of Economic Research, February, 2018, http://www.nber.org/papers/w24333)

Those Stubborn Facts: Tight U.S. Labor Markets?

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Great Recession, Jobs, labor, strikes, Those Stubborn Facts, unions, work stoppages

Number of Major U.S. Work Stoppages*, 2017: 7

Number of Years Since 1947** with Fewer Such Stoppages: 1

The Year with Fewest Such Stoppages: 2009 (Great Recession)

*Defined as events “involving 1,000 or more workers and lasting at least one shift.”

** Starting date of this Bureau of Labor Statistics series.

(Source: “Major Work Stoppages in 2017,” News Release USDL-18-0206, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, February 9, 2018, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkstp.pdf )

Those Stubborn Facts: What Trump Voters Say They Want

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2016 election, Immigration, infrastructure, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, Trump

Non-College-Educated Whites’ Stated Top 2016 Presidential Election Issue Priorities*:

Building a Border Wall: 31%

Imposing Tariffs on Predatory U.S. Trade Partners: 65%

Improving Infrastructure: 65%

*From a January, 2017 survey

(Source: “With Fireworks, Washington Returns to the Core Trump Agenda,” by Gerald F. Seib, The Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-fireworks-washington-returns-to-the-core-trump-agenda-1516035795?mod=e2tw(

Those Stubborn Facts: How U.S Manufacturing Helps the Whole Economy – Except for its Own Workers

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Employment, exports, GDP, gross domestic product, Jobs, manufacturing, productivity, research and development, Those Stubborn Facts, wages

Manufacturing share of U.S. employment: 9%

Manufacturing share of U.S. GDP: 12%

Manufacturing share of U.S. productivity growth: 35%

Manufacturing share of U.S. exports: 60%

Manufacturing share of U.S. private sector R&D spending: 70%

Manufacturing share of decline in labor share of GDP since 1990:      more than 2/3

 

(Source: “In Labor vs Capital, Manufacturing Plays an Outsize Role, Report Says,” by Harriet Torry, The Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2017, https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/11/13/in-labor-vs-capital-manufacturing-plays-an-outsize-role-report-says/)

Those Stubborn Facts: No American Exceptionalism in Employment

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Employment, Jobs, OECD, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

U.S. employment rate*, 4Q 2016: 69.5%

Rank among members of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): 15

OECD average: 67.2%

*share of working-age population holding jobs

(Source: “Short-Term Labour Market Statistics,” Labour Force Statisics, OECD.Stat, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=STLABOUR)

Those Stubborn Facts: From the World’s New Champion of Free Trade

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China, free markets, free trade, investment, state-owned enterprises, Those Stubborn Facts

Annual investment growth by Chinese state-owned companies,

2016: + c. 25%

 

Annual investment growth by Chinese “private” companies,

2016: + c. 3%

 

(Source: “Beijing Revs Up State Inc.,” by Ian Talley, The Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2017, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/03/20/beijing-revs-up-state-inc/)

Those Stubborn Facts: America’s Far from First Yet in World Trade

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America First, exports, imports, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade

World exports, Nov. 2015-Nov. 2016: +3.77%

U.S. exports, Nov. 2015-Nov. 2016: +1.21%

World imports, Nov. 2015-Nov. 2016: +1.67%

U.S. imports, Nov. 2015-Nov. 2016: +2.84%

*All figures in volume terms

(Source: “CPB World Trade Monitor: November, 2016,” Data, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, January 25, 2017, https://www.cpb.nl/en/figure/cpb-world-trade-monitor-november-2016. HT to Paul Hannon, The Wall Street Journal)

Those Stubborn Facts: About Those Low-Tech Chinese….

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China, Digitimes, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, semiconductors, technology, Those Stubbprn Facts

Number of front-end semiconductor manufacturing facilities forecast to begin operating worldwide 2017-2020: 62

Number forecast to begin operations in China: 26 (c. 42%)

Number forecast to begin operations in “the Americas”: 10 (c. 16%)

(Source: “China to join top-3 semiconductor equipment spenders for first time, says SEMI,” by Jessie Shen, Digitimes, December 14, 2016, http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20161214PR200.html)

Those Stubborn Facts: The Race to the Bottom Continues in World Garment Trade

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Bangladesh, factory safety, garments, globalization, Rana Plaza, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade

Estimated cost of safety upgrades mandated for Bangladesh garment factories after April, 2013 Rana Plaza disaster: $929 million

Amount of renovations that haven’t been made: $635 million

 
(Source: “Clothing Keeps Getting Cheaper, and Factory Workers Are Paying the Price,” by Vauhini Vara, Bloomberg News, October 27, 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/clothing-keeps-getting-cheaper-and-factory-workers-are-paying-the-price)