Those Stubborn Facts: The Latest on Immigration and Wages

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blue-collar workers, Immigration, Those Stubborn Facts, wages

Net change in U.S. immigrant inflows, 2017-18: -70 percent

Change in U.S. real wages for all workers, 2017-18: +1.30 percent

Best annual increase since: 2014 (1.82 percent)

Improvement over 2016-17 wage change: 196.7 percent

Change in U.S. real wages for blue-collar workers, 2017-18: 1.63 percent

Best annual increase since: 2015 (2.23 percent)

Improvement over 2016-2017 wage change: 675.6 percent

 

(Sources: “Immigrant Population Growth in the U.S. Slows to a Trickle,” by Sabrina Tavernise, The New York Times, September 27, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/us/census-immigration.html; Average hourly earnings of all employees, 1982-1984 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted, Total private, Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject, Data Tools, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor; and Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, 1982-84 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted, Total private, Ibid.)

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Those Stubborn Facts: Innovation Machine?

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Bell Labs, IBM, innovation, National Affairs, Oren Cass, Silicon Valley, tech, Those Stubborn Facts

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers at Bell Labs: 8

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers at IBM: 5

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers funded by a Silicon          Valley firm: 0

 

(Source: “Putting Dynamism in Its Place,” by Oren Cass, National Affairs, No. 39, Spring, 2019, https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/putting-dynamism-in-its-place)

Those Stubborn Facts: Another “Tariff Man”

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Abraham Lincoln, tariffs, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, Trump

“The internet mocks Donald Trump’s new super-hero alter ego ‘Tariff Man.’”

—Mashable.com, December 4, 2018

“In the days of Henry Clay I was a Henry Clay-tariff-man; and my views have undergone no material change upon that subject.”

–-Abraham Lincoln, May 12, 1860

 

(Sources: “The Internet mocks Donald Trump’s new super-hero alter-ego ‘Tariff Man,’” by Marcus Gilmer, Mashable.com, December 4, 2018, https://mashable.com/article/donald-trump-tariff-man-memes/#AabcVM_AYqq5; “To Edward Wallace,” Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln. Volume 4, The Abraham Lincoln Association, https://quod.lib.umich.edu/l/lincoln/lincoln4/1:40.1?rgn=div2;view=fulltext. Thanks to @TheMovement_USA)

Those Stubborn Facts: The Fading Henry Ford Wage Strategy

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automotive, autos, Henry Ford, manufacturing, Those Stubborn Facts, wages

Share of an average American factory worker’s annual earnings needed to buy the average new car, 1965: 25 percent

Share of an average American factory worker’s annual earnings needed to buy the average new car today: 59 percent

 

(Source: “Trump lashes GM plant closings as UAW prepares to defend jobs,” by Ted Evanoff, Memphis Commercial Appeal, November 28, 2018, https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/money/cars/2018/11/28/trump-lashes-gm-but-plant-closings-likely-even-uaw-prepares-defend-jobs/2137046002/)

Those Stubborn Facts: When U.S. Immigration Bottomed, Unions Peaked

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immigrants, Immigration, labor, Population Reference Bureau, The New Republic, Those Stubborn Facts, unions

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“American labor’s peak decade”: the 1930s

—The New Republic, October 2, 2018

Decade during which legal immigration into the U.S. bottomed*: the 1930s

—Population Reference Bureau, May 9, 2014

*since the 1830s

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(Sources: “America’s Missing Labor Party,” by David Sessions, The New Republic, October 2, 2018, https://newrepublic.com/article/151119/americas-missing-labor-party-book-review-erik-loomis-history-ten-strikes; “Trends in Migration to the U.S.,” by Philip Martin, Population Reference Bureau, May 9, 2014, https://www.prb.org/us-migration-trends/)

Those Stubborn Facts: No Doubt Among Global Investors About the Trade Wars Winner

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investors trade, stock markets, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, trade wars

Performance of U.S. stock market and major markets in countries running big trade surpluses with the United States, June 14*-July 12, 2018:

U.S. Wilshire 5000: +0.5 percent

China Shanghai Composite: -6.8 percent

South Korea KOSPI: -5.7 percent

Germany DAX: -4.7 percent

Japan Nikkei: -2.4 percent

*Date when Trump administration announced initial “hit list” of tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods

(Source: “Stock Markets See the US Winning the Trade War, Defying Corporate Lobby & Media Propaganda,” by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street, July 12, 2018, https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/12/stock-markets-see-the-us-winning-the-trade-war-defying-corporate-lobby-media-propaganda/.  HT to John Laich.)

Those Stubborn Facts: Why Trade-Related Job Loss Really Does Matter

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automation, China, Jobs, National Bureau of Economic Research, robots, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade

Number of net U.S. jobs lost to “expanded trade with China”, 1999-2016: 2.65 million

Number of net U.S. jobs lost to “adoption of industrial robots,” 1999-2016: 1.40 million

(Source: “Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence,” by Katharine G. Abraham and Melissa S. Kearney, NBER Working Paper No. 24333, Labor Studies Program, National Bureau of Economic Research, February, 2018, http://www.nber.org/papers/w24333)

Those Stubborn Facts: Tight U.S. Labor Markets?

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Great Recession, Jobs, labor, strikes, Those Stubborn Facts, unions, work stoppages

Number of Major U.S. Work Stoppages*, 2017: 7

Number of Years Since 1947** with Fewer Such Stoppages: 1

The Year with Fewest Such Stoppages: 2009 (Great Recession)

*Defined as events “involving 1,000 or more workers and lasting at least one shift.”

** Starting date of this Bureau of Labor Statistics series.

(Source: “Major Work Stoppages in 2017,” News Release USDL-18-0206, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, February 9, 2018, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkstp.pdf )

Those Stubborn Facts: What Trump Voters Say They Want

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2016 election, Immigration, infrastructure, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, Trump

Non-College-Educated Whites’ Stated Top 2016 Presidential Election Issue Priorities*:

Building a Border Wall: 31%

Imposing Tariffs on Predatory U.S. Trade Partners: 65%

Improving Infrastructure: 65%

*From a January, 2017 survey

(Source: “With Fireworks, Washington Returns to the Core Trump Agenda,” by Gerald F. Seib, The Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-fireworks-washington-returns-to-the-core-trump-agenda-1516035795?mod=e2tw(

Those Stubborn Facts: No NAFTA Workers’ Paradise for Mexico

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emerging markets, Mexico, NAFTA, North American Free Frade Agreement, OECD, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, wages

Median Real Monthly Earnings Growth of Workers in Developing Country Members of the OECD, 2000 & 2015

China:                         15.3%*                   6.9%

India:                            5.7%***               1.0% (a)

Russia                           0.9%                    -9.5%

Turkey (d)                    1.7%                      5.6%

South Africa*              1.2%                      2.2%

Brazil:                         -1.3%                      2.7%

Indonesia:                    9.8%**                 -0.4%

Saudi Arabia (b)         6.1%                       5.2% (c)

Mexico:                        6.9%                       0.5%

*2001 figure

**2002 figure

***2007 figure

(a) 2012 figure

(b) 2010 figure

(c) 2015 figure

(d) 2004 figure

(Source: “Wage growth by region – ILO modeled estimates, Dec. 2016,” International Labor Organization. Link to ILO Global Wage Database available at “Data collection on wages and income,” International Labor Organization, http://www.ilo.org/travail/areasofwork/wages-and-income/WCMS_142568/lang—en/index.htm. HT to “The U.S.-Mexico Wage Gap Is Actually Widening Under NAFTA,” by Eric Martin and Nacha Cattan, Bloomberg.com, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-28/nafta-s-ugly-reality-u-s-mexico-wage-gap-is-actually-widening)