Those Stubborn Facts: A Trump China Trade Deal Scorecard Without the Hysteria

Tags

China, China trade deal, Phase One, tariffs, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, trade agreements, trade policy, trade war

China’s global imports, calendar year 2020 y/y: -1.1 percent

China’s imports from the U.S., calendar year 2020 y/y: +9.8 percent

 

“Thus [Trump’s] Phase 1 agreement appears to have contributed to 

some improved U.S. export performance to China, even if China is

far away from meeting the year one commitments.”

 

(Source: “U.S.-China Phase 1 Trade Agreement – Data Through December 2020; China has increased purchases of agricultural and energy products above 2017 levels but did not reach first year agreed purchases in 2020 and won’t reach the agreed level even if measured from March 2020-February 2021,” by Terence P. Stewart, Current Thoughts on Trade, February 6, 2021, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2021/02/06/u-s-china-phase-1-trade-agreement-data-through-december-2020-china-has-increased-purchases-of-agricultural-and-energy-products-above-2017-levels-but-did-not-reach-first-year-agreed-purchases-in/)

Those Stubborn Facts: Biden’s Hollow Travel Mask Mandate

Tags

Biden, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, masks, Those Stubborn Facts, transportation, travel, Wuhan virus

“Biden to sign virus measures, requires mask use to travel”

– Associated Press, January 21, 2021

U.S. “airlines, Amtrak and other transport providers now require masks….”

– Associated Press, January 21, 2021

 

(Source: “Biden to sign virus measures, requires mask use to travel,” by Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, Associated Press, January 21, 2021, Biden to sign virus measures, requires mask use to travel (apnews.com))

 

Those Stubborn Facts: Park Avenue Joe

Tags

election 2020, elites, Joe Biden, money in politics, Park Avenue, populim, Scranton, Those Stubborn Facts, Trump

“I really view this campaign as a campaign between Scranton and Park Avenue. And I really mean it, Because, you know, when you’re raised up here in this area, an awful lot of hard-working people bust the neck — all they ask for is a shot, just a shot. All that Trump can see from Park Avenue is Wall Street. All he thinks about is the stock market.”

– Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, September 19, 2020

Campaign contributions to Biden from donors with Park Avenue addresses:  $1 million-plus

Campaign contributions to President Trump from donors with Park Avenue addresses: $127,000

Campaign contributions to Biden from donors in Scranton: $355,706

Campaign contributions to President Trump from donors in Scranton: $336,657

(Source: “Park Ave Residents Gave Joe Biden 8 Times What They Gave to President Trump,” by John Carney, Breitbart.com, September 18, 2020, https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/09/18/park-ave-residents-gave-joe-biden-8-times-what-they-gave-donald-trump/)

Those Stubborn Facts: China’s Losing the Trade Wars Globally, Too

Tags

China, exports, Financial Times, globalization, supply chain, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, trade wars

China’s share of total world goods exports, 2018: 25 percent

China’s share of total world goods exports, 2019: 22 percent

(Source: “China’s share of global exports falls in supply chains rethink,” by Kathrin Hille, Financial Times, August 17, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/bfef2854-f8f3-4ce6-a00f-3b11123b01e8)

Those Stubborn Facts: A CCP Virus Credibility Gap – for the News Media

Tags

CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Mainstream Media, media, MSM, Those Stubborn Facts, Trump, Wuhan virus

Share of Americans approving President Trump’s CCP Virus response:  60%

Share of Americans disapproving:  38%

Share of Americans approving the news media’s CCP Virus response:  44%

Share of Americans disapproving the news media’s CCP Virus response:  55%

 

(Source: “Coronavirus Response: Hospitals Rated Best, News Media Worst,” by Justin McCarthy, March 25, 2020, https://news.gallup.com/poll/300680/coronavirus-response-hospitals-rated-best-news-media-worst.aspx)

Those Stubborn Facts: Why Health Security Should “Trump” Free Trade for Americans

Tags

active pharmaceutical ingredients, CCP Virus, China, coronavirus, COVID 19, European Union, exports, free trade, globalization, health security, India, medical devices, pandemic, pharmaceuticals, surgical equipment, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade

“[White House Office of Manufacturing and Trade Policy Director Peter] Navarro raised a lot of eyebrows when he warned that [international trade] fights over [healthcare-related goods] loomed and told Fox Business Network on Feb. 23: ‘People need to understand in crises like this, we have no allies.’ But what then seemed potentially alarmist now looks like foresight.”

– Bloomberg News, March 16, 2020

Number of countries that have curbed exports of healthcare-related goods*: 38**

 

*Includes pharmaceuticals, active pharmaceutical ingredients, medical devices, surgical appliances and supplies

**India, China, India, Taiwan, Indonesia, Belarus, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, United Kingdom, and the 27 members of the European Union

 

(Sources: “Export Wars Erupt as Officials Curb Supplies to Battle Virus,” by Shawn Donnan, Bloomberg News, March 16, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/trade-war-latest-welcome-to-the-coronavirus-export-wars-of-2020-k7uf1k01; “The Global Mask Shortage May Get Much Worse,” by K Oanh Ha, Ibid., March 10, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/the-global-mask-shortage-may-be-about-to-get-much-worse; “Export Trade News,” Foreign Trade Online [latest daily edition], https://www.foreign-trade.com/export_trade.htm; “The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them – But Has Been Hoarding Them,” by Keith Bradsher and Liz Alderman, The New York Times, March 16, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html; and “UK bans parallel export of two COVID-19 treatment candidates to protect national supply,” by Janet Beal, “Life Sciences,” IHS Markit, February 26, 2020, https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/uk-bans-parallel-export-of-two-covid19-treatment-candidates.html)

Those Stubborn Facts: How Protectionism Pays at the WTO

Tags

China, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade Deficits, trade surpluses, World Trade Organization, WTO

Disputes brought against the United States since China joined the World Trade Organization*: 99

Share of total disputes brought to the World Trade Organization since China joined: 28.37%

Disputes brought against China since China joined the World Trade Organization: 44

Share of total disputes brought to the World Trade Organization since China joined: 12.61 percent

U.S. cumulative merchandise trade balance since China joined the World Trade Organization:** -$9.509 trillion

China cumulative merchandise trade balance since China joined the World Trade Organization: +$3.028 trillion

*December, 2001

**2002 through 2018

(Sources: “How to Revive the WTO,” by Shang-Jin Wei and Xinding Yu,” Project Syndicate, December 11, 2019, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/world-trade-organization-revive-appellate-body-by-shang-jin-wei-and-xinding-yu-2019-12; and calculated from “Net trade in goods and services (BoP, current US$) – China, United States,” DataBank, World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.GSR.GNFS.CD?locations=CN-US)

Those Stubborn Facts: Trade Deal or Not, U.S.-China Decoupling Continues

Tags

CFIUS, China, Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, decoupling, FDI, foreign direct investment, national security, technology, Those Stubborn Facts

“The data [do] not identify the origin of the buyers who abandoned their investments. But attorneys who handle CFIUS [the U.S. inter-agency Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States] cases said many are probably Chinese companies caught in a Trump administration campaign to stymie their efforts to acquire sensitive U.S. technology.”

Share of proposed foreign buys of U.S. assets abandoned due to U.S. government “national security concerns,” recent years:

2014-16: 4-5 percent annually

2017: 14 percent

2018: 11 percent

(Source: “More foreign firms halted U.S. deals amid Trump administration scrutiny: report,” by Alexandra Alper, Reuters, November 22, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-investment-trump/more-foreign-firms-halted-u-s-deals-amid-trump-administration-scrutiny-report-idUSKBN1XW1VJ)

Those Stubborn Facts: The Latest on Immigration and Wages

Tags

blue-collar workers, Immigration, Those Stubborn Facts, wages

Net change in U.S. immigrant inflows, 2017-18: -70 percent

Change in U.S. real wages for all workers, 2017-18: +1.30 percent

Best annual increase since: 2014 (1.82 percent)

Improvement over 2016-17 wage change: 196.7 percent

Change in U.S. real wages for blue-collar workers, 2017-18: 1.63 percent

Best annual increase since: 2015 (2.23 percent)

Improvement over 2016-2017 wage change: 675.6 percent

 

(Sources: “Immigrant Population Growth in the U.S. Slows to a Trickle,” by Sabrina Tavernise, The New York Times, September 27, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/us/census-immigration.html; Average hourly earnings of all employees, 1982-1984 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted, Total private, Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject, Data Tools, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor; and Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, 1982-84 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted, Total private, Ibid.)

Those Stubborn Facts: Innovation Machine?

Tags

Bell Labs, IBM, innovation, National Affairs, Oren Cass, Silicon Valley, tech, Those Stubborn Facts

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers at Bell Labs: 8

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers at IBM: 5

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers funded by a Silicon          Valley firm: 0

 

(Source: “Putting Dynamism in Its Place,” by Oren Cass, National Affairs, No. 39, Spring, 2019, https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/putting-dynamism-in-its-place)