Those Stubborn Facts: A CCP Virus Credibility Gap – for the News Media

“[White House Office of Manufacturing and Trade Policy Director Peter] Navarro raised a lot of eyebrows when he warned that [international trade] fights over [healthcare-related goods] loomed and told Fox Business Network on Feb. 23: ‘People need to understand in crises like this, we have no allies.’ But what then seemed potentially alarmist now looks like foresight.”

– Bloomberg News, March 16, 2020

Number of countries that have curbed exports of healthcare-related goods*: 38**

*Includes pharmaceuticals, active pharmaceutical ingredients, medical devices, surgical appliances and supplies

**India, China, India, Taiwan, Indonesia, Belarus, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, United Kingdom, and the 27 members of the European Union

(Sources: “Export Wars Erupt as Officials Curb Supplies to Battle Virus,” by Shawn Donnan, Bloomberg News, March 16, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/trade-war-latest-welcome-to-the-coronavirus-export-wars-of-2020-k7uf1k01; “The Global Mask Shortage May Get Much Worse,” by K Oanh Ha, Ibid., March 10, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/the-global-mask-shortage-may-be-about-to-get-much-worse; “Export Trade News,” Foreign Trade Online [latest daily edition], https://www.foreign-trade.com/export_trade.htm; “The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them – But Has Been Hoarding Them,” by Keith Bradsher and Liz Alderman, The New York Times, March 16, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html; and “UK bans parallel export of two COVID-19 treatment candidates to protect national supply,” by Janet Beal, “Life Sciences,” IHS Markit, February 26, 2020, https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/uk-bans-parallel-export-of-two-covid19-treatment-candidates.html)

Those Stubborn Facts: How Protectionism Pays at the WTO

26 Thursday Dec 2019

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Those Stubborn Facts

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China, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade Deficits, trade surpluses, World Trade Organization, WTO

Disputes brought against the United States since China joined the World Trade Organization*: 99

Share of total disputes brought to the World Trade Organization since China joined: 28.37%

Disputes brought against China since China joined the World Trade Organization: 44

Share of total disputes brought to the World Trade Organization since China joined: 12.61 percent

U.S. cumulative merchandise trade balance since China joined the World Trade Organization:** -$9.509 trillion

China cumulative merchandise trade balance since China joined the World Trade Organization: +$3.028 trillion

*December, 2001

**2002 through 2018

(Sources: “How to Revive the WTO,” by Shang-Jin Wei and Xinding Yu,” Project Syndicate, December 11, 2019, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/world-trade-organization-revive-appellate-body-by-shang-jin-wei-and-xinding-yu-2019-12; and calculated from “Net trade in goods and services (BoP, current US$) – China, United States,” DataBank, World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.GSR.GNFS.CD?locations=CN-US)

Those Stubborn Facts: Trade Deal or Not, U.S.-China Decoupling Continues

25 Monday Nov 2019

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Those Stubborn Facts

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CFIUS, China, Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, decoupling, FDI, foreign direct investment, national security, technology, Those Stubborn Facts

“The data [do] not identify the origin of the buyers who abandoned their investments. But attorneys who handle CFIUS [the U.S. inter-agency Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States] cases said many are probably Chinese companies caught in a Trump administration campaign to stymie their efforts to acquire sensitive U.S. technology.”

Share of proposed foreign buys of U.S. assets abandoned due to U.S. government “national security concerns,” recent years:

2014-16: 4-5 percent annually

2017: 14 percent

2018: 11 percent

(Source: “More foreign firms halted U.S. deals amid Trump administration scrutiny: report,” by Alexandra Alper, Reuters, November 22, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-investment-trump/more-foreign-firms-halted-u-s-deals-amid-trump-administration-scrutiny-report-idUSKBN1XW1VJ)

Those Stubborn Facts: The Latest on Immigration and Wages

29 Sunday Sep 2019

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blue-collar workers, Immigration, Those Stubborn Facts, wages

Net change in U.S. immigrant inflows, 2017-18: -70 percent

Change in U.S. real wages for all workers, 2017-18: +1.30 percent

Best annual increase since: 2014 (1.82 percent)

Improvement over 2016-17 wage change: 196.7 percent

Change in U.S. real wages for blue-collar workers, 2017-18: 1.63 percent

Best annual increase since: 2015 (2.23 percent)

Improvement over 2016-2017 wage change: 675.6 percent

(Sources: “Immigrant Population Growth in the U.S. Slows to a Trickle,” by Sabrina Tavernise, The New York Times, September 27, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/us/census-immigration.html; Average hourly earnings of all employees, 1982-1984 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted, Total private, Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject, Data Tools, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor; and Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, 1982-84 dollars, total private, seasonally adjusted, Total private, Ibid.)

Those Stubborn Facts: Innovation Machine?

26 Tuesday Mar 2019

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Those Stubborn Facts

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Bell Labs, IBM, innovation, National Affairs, Oren Cass, Silicon Valley, tech, Those Stubborn Facts

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers at Bell Labs: 8

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers at IBM: 5

Number of Nobel prizes won by researchers funded by a Silicon Valley firm: 0

(Source: “Putting Dynamism in Its Place,” by Oren Cass, National Affairs, No. 39, Spring, 2019, https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/putting-dynamism-in-its-place)

Those Stubborn Facts: Another “Tariff Man”

05 Wednesday Dec 2018

Posted by Alan Tonelson in Those Stubborn Facts

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Abraham Lincoln, tariffs, Those Stubborn Facts, Trade, Trump

“The internet mocks Donald Trump’s new super-hero alter ego ‘Tariff Man.’”

—Mashable.com, December 4, 2018

“In the days of Henry Clay I was a Henry Clay-tariff-man; and my views have undergone no material change upon that subject.”

–-Abraham Lincoln, May 12, 1860

(Sources: “The Internet mocks Donald Trump’s new super-hero alter-ego ‘Tariff Man,’” by Marcus Gilmer, Mashable.com, December 4, 2018, https://mashable.com/article/donald-trump-tariff-man-memes/#AabcVM_AYqq5; “To Edward Wallace,” Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln. Volume 4, The Abraham Lincoln Association, https://quod.lib.umich.edu/l/lincoln/lincoln4/1:40.1?rgn=div2;view=fulltext. Thanks to @TheMovement_USA)