Glad I Didn’t Say That! The IMF’s Muddled Message on Trade and Productivity Growth

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Christine LaGarde, Glad I Didn't Say That!, globalization, IMF, International Monetary Fund, productivity, tariffs, Trade

“[S]ince the mid-1990s….declining tariffs have lifted [worldwide] productivity ….”

–International Monetary Fund, April, 2019

“Over the past decade, there have been sharp slowdowns in [worldwide] measured output per worker and total factor productivity….Even before the global financial crisis, productivity growth was slowing in many advanced economies, such as the United States….”

– International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine LaGarde, April 3, 2017

 

(Sources Chapter 4, “The Drivers of Bilateral Trade and the Spillovers from Tariffs,” p. 103, World Economic Outlook, April, 2019, International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019#Chapter%204 and “Reinvigorating Productivity Growth,” by Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund, American Enterprise Institute, April 3, 2017, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/04/03/sp040317-reinvigorating-productivity-growth )

 

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Glad I Didn’t Say That! A Mixed Media Message on U.S. Farm Labor Shortages

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agriculture, automation, farm workers, Glad I Didn't Say That!, illegal aliens, Immigration, Jobs, labor shortages, Mainstream Media, robots

“With fewer undocumented workers to hire, U.S. farmers are fueling a surge in the number of legal guest workers”

– The Washington Post, February 21, 2019

 

“One February afternoon, they work about an acre apart on a farm the size of 454 football fields: dozens of pickers collecting produce the way people have for centuries — and a robot that engineers say could replace most of them as soon as next year.”

– The Washington Post, February 17, 2019

 

(Sources: “With fewer undocumented workers to hire, U.S. farmers are fueling a surve in the number of legal guest workers,” by Kevin Sieff and Annie Gowen, The Washington Post, February 21, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/with-fewer-undocumented-workers-to-hire-us-farmers-are-fueling-a-surge-in-the-number-of-legal-guest-workers/2019/02/21/2b066876-1e5f-11e9-a759-2b8541bbbe20_story.html?utm_term=.225cc2cc55fe; and “Farmworker vs Robot,” by Danielle Paquette, The Washington Post, February 17, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/national/wp/2019/02/17/feature/inside-the-race-to-replace-farmworkers-with-robots/?utm_term=.24166019b5dc)

Glad I Didn’t Say That! U.S. Automakers Debunk Their Own Tariff Fear-Mongering

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automotive, China tariffs, FCA, Financial Times, General Motors, Glad I Didn't Say That!, metals tariffs, msn.com, Patti Waldmeir, tariffs, Trade, trade war

“The auto industry…fears that new tariffs, on top of those already enacted on Chinese-made vehicles and imported aluminum and steel, could have a major negative impact on the American new car market.”

–MSN.com, November 18, 2018

 

General Motors’ “head of US sales, said on Thursday: ‘We feel confident heading into 2019 because we have more major truck and crossover launches coming during the year and the US economy is strong.’”

–Financial Times, January 3, 2019

 

FCA’s head of US sales “also predicted a ‘solid’ 2019, attributing the company’s strength in 2018 to ‘the efforts we undertook to realign our production to give US consumers more Jeep vehicles and Ram pick-up trucks.’”

–Financial Times, January 3, 2019

 

(Sources “Hit hard by trade war, automakers hoping Trump will hold off on new round of tariffs,” Money, MSN.com, November 18, 2018, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/hit-hard-by-trade-war-automakers-hoping-trump-will-hold-off-on-new-round-of-tariffs/ar-BBPOjRn & “US car sales defied predictions of a slowdown in 2018,” by Patti Waldmeir, Financial Times, January 3, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/e538e316-0f52-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745)

Glad I Didn’t Say That! Fuzzy Math on Trump Tariffs and Tax Cuts

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Glad I Didn't Say That!, middle class, tariffs, tax cuts, taxes, Trade, Trump

“If the administration is serious about further reducing the tax burden on the middle class, the easiest and most effective solution is to walk back…misguided tariffs and avoid imposing additional trade policies that would further increase taxes and destroy jobs.”

– Scott Hodge, President, Tax Foundation, October 30, 2018

 

Size of proposed Trump administration middle-class tax cut: 10 percent

Tax Foundation estimate of bite on after-tax middle-class incomes from all current and threatened Trump tariffs: 1.37 percent

 

(Sources: “Trump wants to cut middle-clas taxes. The easiest solution? Repeal Tariffs,” by Scott Hodge, Washington Examiner, October 30, 2018, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/trump-wants-to-cut-middle-class-taxes-the-easiest-solution-repeal-tariffs)

Glad I Didn’t Say That! Alcoa Flip-Flops on Aluminum Tariffs

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Alcoa, aluminum, Glad I Didn't Say That!, tariffs, Trade, Trump

“For investors who thought the 10% tariff on aluminum imports was supposed to be good for U.S. aluminum producers, Alcoa Chief Executive Roy Harvey explained on the post-earnings conference call with analysts why it’s actually the opposite. ‘First, because tariffs are driving only a limited increase in supply, U.S. imports will remain essential,’ Harvey said….”

– Marketwatch.com, July 22, 2018

 

“Alcoa actually benefited from the trade war, as CFO William Oplinger explained, ‘Our smelters benefited from tariffs pushing up the Midwest regional premiums, so the impact of tariffs was a net benefit to Alcoa of $27 million.’”

– Benzinga.com, October 18, 2018

 

(Sources: “Alcoa CEO explains why aluminum tariffs are hurting, not helping,” by Tomi Kilgore, Marketwatch.com, July 22, 2018, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-trump-administrations-aluminum-tariffs-are-hurting-alcoa-more-than-helping-2018-07-19 & “Alcoa Rises After Crushing Earnings, But Market Cycles Point In The Other Direction,” by Steve Miller, Benzinga.com, October 18,  2018, https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/18/10/12530003/alcoa-rises-after-crushing-earnings-but-market-cycles-point-in-the-othe)

Glad I Didn’t Say That: More Fake News on Trump Tariffs Fallout

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business spending, Catherine Rampell, core capex, Glad I Didn't Say That!, tariffs, Trade, Trump, uncertainty

“Threats of additional tariffs and lingering uncertainty over trade policy are also causing firms to reevaluate or delay investment, as University of Chicago Booth School of Business professor Steven J. Davis noted recently.”

– Catherine Rampell, The Washington Post, September 3, 2018

U.S. “core capex”* spending since first Trump non-trade law tariffs (late March): +0.92 percent

U.S. “core capex” spending during comparable (April-June) period, 2017:  -0.03 percent

U.S. “core capex” spending during same period, 2016: -1.63 percent

U.S. “core capex” spending, advance reading, June-July, 2018: +1.40 percent

*business spending on non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft

(Sources: “Trump promised farmers ‘smarter’ trade deals. Now he has to bail them out,” by Catherine Rampell, The Washington Post, September 3, 2018; New Orders, Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft; Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, Time Series/Trend Charts, Business and Industry, U.S. Census Bureau; “Monthly Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders,” Release Number: CB 18-118 M3-1 (18)-07, U.S. Census Bureau, August 24, 2018, https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf)

Glad I Didn’t Say That! About that Auto Tariff Alarmism

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Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, auto tariffs, automotive, autos, Glad I Didn't Say That!, tariffs, Trump

“The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, a trade group representing domestic and foreign automakers with plants in the U.S., predicts the average price of a new vehicle will increase $5,800 if the president imposes a 25 percent tariff on imported models.”

–CNBC.com, June 27, 2018

“U.S. auto sales in June likely rose 2.5 percent from the same month in 2017…although discounts on new vehicles remain high, industry consultants…said on Tuesday.”

–Reuters, June 26, 2018

 

(Sources:  “Automakers to Trump:  Tariffs will drive up auto prices and cost thousands of jobs,” by Phil LeBeau, CNBC.com, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/27/automakers-to-trump-tariffs-will-drive-up-auto-prices-and-cost-jobs.html & “U.S. June auto sales seen up 2.5 percent, J.D. Power and LMC,” by Nick Carey, Reuters, June 26, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-sales/u-s-june-auto-sales-seen-up-2-5-percent-j-d-power-and-lmc-idUSKBN1JM1L4)

 

Glad I Didn’t Say That: No Obama Learning Curve on Immigration

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Barack Obama, crime, Ed Gillespie, Fairfax County, gang violence, gangs, Glad I Didn't Say That!, illegal immigrants, illegal immigration, immigrants, Immigration, MS-13, Virginia, Virginia governor's race

“[I]n Fairfax County [Virginia] MS-13 related incidents in the first 4 months of this year jumped more than 160 percent compared with 2015.”

—WJLA.com, Washington, D.C., June 30, 2016

“This [MS-13] problem is horrible. This is four murders in this park. Obviously, we’ve had other murders in the region in the past few weeks. This is getting out of control and we need to stop it.”

—Fairfax County police chief Ed Roessler, March 3, 2017

“Along with Los Angeles, ICE [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] considers Northern Virginia a hub for MS-13.”

—Fox5DC.com, Washington, D.C., July 27, 2017

Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie’s ads spotlighting MS-13 threat are “really trying to deliver…fear. What he really believes is if you scare enough voters, you might score just enough votes to win an election. It’s just as cynical as politics gets.”

—Former President Barack Obama, October 19, 2017

Glad I Didn’t Say That! No More Excuses for the H1B Visa Tech Immigrants Program

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Ananya Bhattacharya, Glad I Didn't Say That!, H1B, immigrants, immigratiion, innovation, Jobs, Qz.com, tech workers

“Trump’s crackdown on H-1B visas could prevent the next US unicorn born of Indian immigrants”

–Ananya Bhattacharya, Quartz India, February 5, 2017

Share of Indian engineering graduates capable of writing “the correct logic for a program, a minimum requirement for any programming job”: 4.77%

–Ananya Bhattacharya, Quartz India, April 20, 2017

(Sources: “Trump’s crackdown on H-1B visas could prevent the next US unicorn born of Indian immigrants,” by Ananya Bhattacharya, Quartz India, Februay 5, 2017, https://qz.com/900729/trumps-crackdown-on-h-1b-visas-could-prevent-the-next-us-unicorn-born-of-indian-immigrants/ and “Fewer than 5% of engineers trained in India are cut out for high-skill programming jobs,” by Ananya Bhattacharya, Ibid., April 20, 2017, https://qz.com/964843/less-than-5-of-india-engineers-are-cut-out-for-high-skill-programming-jobs/)

Glad I Didn’t Say That! Confusion in Mainstream Media-Land

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Ben White, Catherine Rampell, economy, Glad I Didn't Say That!, Mainstream Media, Politico, recovery, The Washington Post, Trump

“Trump’s ‘make America great’ plans face a slowing economy”

– Ben White, Politico, January 6, 2017

 

“Trump is being handed a great economy”

– Catherine Rampell, The Washington Post, December 26, 2016

(Sources: “Trump’s ‘make America great’ plans face a slowing economy,” by Ben White, Politico, January 6, 2017, http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/us-economy-2017-outlook-trump-233293 and “Trump is being handed a great economy. What happens when it goes south?” by Catherine Rampell, The Washington Post, December 26, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-being-handed-a-great-economy-what-happens-when-it-goes-south/2016/12/26/524ff948-cba9-11e6-b8a2-8c2a61b0436f_story.html?utm_term=.403834fd0f3d)