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aircraft, aircraft engine parts, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, chemicals, electrical components, electrical equipment, Employment, fabricated metal product, furniture, Jobs, machinery, manufacturing, NFP, non-farm payrolls, pharmaceuticals, primary metals, private sector, semiconductors, surgical equipment, transportation equipment, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy
The manufacturing jobs results contained in last Friday’s official monthly U.S. employment report were downbeat both because 2,000 positions were shed between April and May, and because that makes two months of losses out of the last three. Domestic industry hasn’t experienced a stretch that bad since the period from late 2019 through the depth of the devastating but brief CCP Virus-induced economy-wide nosedive.
And to add insult to injury, revisions were negative. April’s initially reported gain of 11,000 was downgraded to one of 10,000, and March’s losses were revised down a second time – from 8,000 to 12,00 – the worst monthly read since the 42,000 collapse of April, 2021.
In fact, these collective setbacks pushed manufacturing still deeper into post-pandemic employment laggard status. Since February, 2020 – the last full data month before the CCP Virus pandemic began hammering and distorting the entire economy – manufacturing headcounts have risen by 1.56 percent – less than the 1.61 percent calculable from last month’s release.
During the same period, non-farm payrolls (NFP – the U.S. government’s definition of the national jobs universe) have risen by 2.45 percent – an improvement over the 2.10 percent calculable last month. And private sector headcounts are up by 3.04 percent – an improvement over the 2.78 percent calculable last month.
It’s no surprise then that manufacturing’s share of American employment keeps shrinking. As of the new jobs report, it stood at 8.32 percent of NFP – lower than the 8.35 percent calculable last month and 8.39 percent just before the CCP Virus arrived state-side in force. And it represented 9.73 percent of private sector employment – lower than the 9.76 percent calculable last month and the 9.87 percent calculable in February, 2020.
May’s biggest jobs winners among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors tracked by Washington were highly concentrated in a handful of industries:
>in the big, diverse transportation equipment sector, 10,500 positions were added sequentially, and April’s initially reported 6,700 advance was upgraded to one of 10,600. In all, transportation equipment companies have now registered four straight months of strong job creation, and their employment levels are now 4.78 percent greater than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 versus the 3.81 percent calculable last month;
>electrical equipment, appliance and components, where a sequential jobs boost of 2,100 snapped a two-month losing streak and represented these companies’ best such performance since March, 2022’s increase of 3,000. Consequently, job levels in this sector have now advanced by 2.04 percent during the CCP Virus era and its aftermath, versus the 0.98 percent improvement calculable last month.
>primary metal manufacturing, whose 2,000 employment increase marked a fourth straight month of gains. The monthly rise was also the biggest for these companies since they hired 1,200 net new workers last October. Primary metal manufacturers’ payrolls have now moved to within 2.50 percent of their February, 2020 level, versus the 2.98 shortfall calculable last month; and
>the large chemicals industry, which improved employment by 1,700, and pushed its pandemic-era-plus headcount growth to 7.52 percent, versus the 7.49 percent calculable last month.
May’s losers among these broad were broad-based, with the biggest being:
>furniture and related products, where a jobs retreat of 4,000 was its worst such performance since last November’s 4,200 reduction. Because of this drop, the sector’s workforce is now 5.29 percent smaller than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 3.70 percent calculable last month;
>machinery, whose 2,400 jobs fall-off was its worst such performance since the 6,500 cratering in November, 2021. This decrease, plus some negative revisions, depressed this diverse sector’s headcount down to 0.95 percent above its February, 2020 level, versus the 1.24 percent increase calculable last month.
This poor machinery performance matters because the widespread use of its products for expansion and modernization make it an important barometer of the health both of the rest of industry and of the entire economy; and
>fabricated metal product manufacturing, another large sector which cut 2,300 positions. Whereas these companies’ headcounts had pulled to within 0.94 percent of their level just before the CCP Virus’ arrival, they’re now back to 1.21 percent below.
In addition to machinery, RealityChek has tracked another industry consistently since the virus began destabilizing the U.S. economy: automotive, whose its fortunes have so often and so heavily influenced determined those of manufacturing as a whole during the pandemic period.
As suggested by the robust hiring performance of the transportation equipment sector, April was a return to this pattern, with vehicle and parts makers bolstering payrolls by 6,800. In addition, April’s initially reported hiring increase of 5,800 was revised all the way up to 9,000 – the best such performance since last December’s 9,500 burst.
This recent surge has pushed automotive employment 8.42 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 7.18 percent calculable last month.
RealityChek has also been monitoring several narrower sectors that have attracted special attention during the CCP Virus era, but where the data are always a month behind those of the above broader sectors, Their April employment performances were generally mixed.
Despite the U.S. government’s decision to provide major subsidies to foster more semiconductor manufacturing in America, the sector’s employment record in April continued a weak spell that began back in January. The April loss of 800 jobs in the semiconductors and related devices category represented the sector’s fourth straight monthly decline, and March’s initially reported 300 increase is now judged to have been a steep drop of 1,700.
These dismal results – no doubt due at least partly to the return of glut conditions in many types of microchips – dragged down these companies’ employment gains to 8.86 percent above immediate pre-pandemic levels, versus the 9.20 percent improvement calculable last month.
Aircraft manufacturers shed jobs for the second straight month in April, with the 1,300 fall the worst monthly performance since May, 2021’s slide of 4,100. Along with mixed revisions, the April tumble meant that the aircraft workforce is now 3.62 percent smaller than just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force versus the 3.29 percent calculable last month.
Hiring by aircraft engines and engine parts-makers in April dipped for the first time in three months, as these industries cut headcount by 300. The decline however, was only the first since July, 2021 and it followed a March jump of 1,000 that stayed unrevised. So employment by these companies slipped further below its February, 2020 levels, but just to 6.66 percent versus the 6.33 percent calculable last month.
By contrast, in non-engine aircraft parts, the workforce expanded for the fifth straight month – the longest period of growth since the months between January and June, 2019. The gain of 400 was also noteworthy because it followed a March increase that was upgraded from 600 to one of 800. Jobs in non-engine aircraft parts maker climbed to within 14.10 percent of their immediate pre-pandemic total, versus the 14.62 percent shortfall calculable last month.
But jobs totals for surgical appliances- and supplies-makers dipped by 500 in April. And the initially reported March flatline result for companies that turned out many of the products used to fight the virus is now judged to have been a shrinkage of 200. So where as of last month, these workforces were pegged at 1.23 percent larger than their February, 2020 levels, this growth has now been pared back to 0.57 percent.
The pharmaceuticals and medicines sector fared much better hiring-wise, with its 1,500 net new jobs its best such performance since January’s 1,700. This improvement, plus positive revisions, brought employment in this sector 15.09 percent higher during the CCP Virus era and its continuing aftermath versus the 14.54 percent increase calculable last month.
And the pharmaceutical sub-sector that contains vaccines added 800 jobs for its best employment month since last June and its increase of 900. The workforce for these vital health security companies is now 20.61 percent larger than in February, 2020, just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force, versus the 19.80 percent calculable last month.
To be sure, domestic manufacturing data has a habit of producing pleasant surprises. (See, e.g., the latest production figures.) But with the overall economy continuing to lose momentum, and the foreign markets that normally buy so many domestically manufactured products performing no better, any near-term improvement in U.S. manufacturing employment will be just that – a pleasant surprise.