Making News: (Re)Unveiling a Revolutionary U.S. Tax Policy Proposal

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CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, deficits, fiscal policy, Henry George, Henry George School of Social Science, InsideSources.com, Land-Value Tax, LVT, Making News, municipal finance, recession, taxes, Wuhan virus

And now for something completely different. (Apologies to the Monty Python crew.)

As some of you may know, when I’m not blogging here at RealityChek or Tweeting like a house on fire, I’m serving as a Trustee of the Henry George School of Social Science. This economic education institution seeks to apply some of the truly revolutionary insights reached by George, a Gilded Age/Progressive Era American economist about issues of his day, that strongly resemble some of the biggest challenges of our own times – for example, the rise of economic inequality amid extraordinary wealth creation and technological progress, the replacement of so much productive activity with financial speculation, and the weakening of competition throughout American business as enormous industries grow more monopolistic.

George’s signature proposal was a “land-value tax” (LVT), which he wrote boasted great potential to penalize casino-type finance; reward productive investment and thereby foster production-based, broadly shared prosperity; and break up economically and politically dangerous concentrations of wealth.

Folks associated with the School and with “Georgism” have advocated for this proposal ever since, but we believe that the LVT creates yet another advantage that’s especially important today: Its adoption could place the finances of state and cities devastated by the CCP Virus-induced recession and collapse of tax revenues on a healthy, sustainable footing.

As a result, we’ve launched an effort to show exactly how the LVT could eliminate budget gaps in states and localities across the country, and I’m pleased to announce that the first of these offerings has just been published (as an op-ed I’ve co-authored) by the news syndicate InsideSources.com). Here’s the link.

Moreover, we’ve recently issued a policy brief containing much more data relating to New York City and New York State that you can read here. And in the coming weeks and months, we’ll be sending off locally customized versions of this piece to news organizations in dozens of financially squeezed regions, including detailed projections of exactly how much revenue entirely affordable LVTs could raise.

So keep checking in with RealityChek for info on these articles, and news of other upcoming media appearances and developments.

Following Up: Podcasts On-Line of Yesterday’s National Radio Appearances on Biden and China/Asia Trade

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allies, Asia-Pacific, China, globalization, Making News, Market Wrap with Moe Ansari, RCEP, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, The John Batchelor Show, Trade

I’m pleased to announce that the podcasts are now on-line of my two national radio interviews yesterday on U.S. trade policy under a Biden administration.  The special focus:  whether the United States should be worried that 14 Asia-Pacific countries – including all of America’s main regional allies – have just signed a Chinese-organized agreement to set up a free trade zone called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

My appearance on Moe Ansari’s “Market Wrap with Moe” can be found at this site, and clicking on the play button of the “Current Market Wrap” (“Cold War with China”) episode.  The interview begins just before the 23-minute mark.

Meanwhile, the “John Batchelor Show” segment episode covering these subjects is located here.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Back on New York City Talk Radio on the Future of Trumpian-Style Populism

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conservative populists, conservatives, Frank Morano, Making News, New York Mets, Populism, Trump, WABC-FM

I’m pleased to announce that I’ll be appearing this morning on Frank Morano’s WABC-FM talk show to size up the odds that a Trump-ian kind of nationalist populism can keep dominating Republican Party politics whether the President stays on the national scene or not — and remaining competitive in presidential elections. My segment should start at about 10:30 EST, and you can listen live by visiting this site and clicking the play button next to Frank’s name in the upper right-hand corner.

Special bonus — we’ll also be previewing the possibility of a new era for baseball’s long-beleaguered New York Mets, and reviewing the state of my back (which is getting better).

If you can’t listen this morning, of course I’ll be posting a link to the podcast as soon as one’s available.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Back on National Radio Tonight on the Future of U.S.-China Policy…& More!

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CCP Virus, China, coronavirus, COVID 19, Gordon G. Chang, Joe Biden, Making News, tech, The John Batchelor Show, Trade, trade war, Voice of America, Wuhan virus

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to return tonight to John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show. On the agenda for John, me, and co-host Gordon G. Chang is what happens to the China trade and tech wars if Joe Biden becomes President. Indeed, will they even be waged seriously by Washington?

As has been the case throughout the CCP Virus pandemic, John taped this segment, and it’s not clear when exactly air time will be. But you can listen live on-line to the program at this link starting at 11 PM EST, and I’ll of course post a link to the podcast as soon as one’s available.

In addition, it was great as always to be quoted on the same subject last Thursday on the Voice of America’s Chinese language network. For all you Mandarin speakers, here’s the link. Others (like me) will need to try an on-line translation program.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Analyzing the Post-Election Scene in The National Interest & on NYC Talk Radio

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Blue Wave, election 2020, Frank Morano, Joe Biden, Making News, The National Interest, The Other Side of Midnight, Trump, WABC AM

I’m pleased to announce two new media hits during the last week. First, yesterday, The National Interest published an essay of mine setting out some initial thoughts on where American politics stands in the immediate aftermath of Joe Biden’s apparent election as President and the failure of a widely predicted Blue Wave to crush Trump-ism or swamp the House and Senate. Here’s the link. It’s a modified version of my Wednesday RealityChek post, but I think regulars will find it a valuable read along, with others.

Second, in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, Frank Morano interviewed me on the new political landscape on his WABC-AM New York City radio show “The Other Side of Midnight.” The podcast wasn’t posted till yesterday, but you can listen to the segment at this site. Click on the topmost “The Election is still not over….” episode. My segment begins at about the 23:40 mark.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: New Article on Why I Voted for Trump

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Big Tech, Black Lives Matter, censorship, China, Conservative Populism, conservatives, Democrats, economic nationalism, election 2020, entertainment, environment, freedom of expression, freedom of speech, George Floyd, Hollywood, Hunter Biden, Immigration, industrial policy, Joe Biden, Josh Hawley, journalism, Mainstream Media, Making News, Marco Rubio, police killings, regulation, Republicans, Robert Reich, Russia-Gate, sanctions, Silicon Valley, social media, supply chains, tariffs, taxes, technology, The National Interest, Trade, trade war, Trump, Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Ukraine, Wall Street, wokeness

I’m pleased to announce that The National Interest journal has just published a modified version of my recent RealityChek post explaining my support for President Trump’s reelection. Here’s the link.

The main differences? The new item is somewhat shorter, it abandons the first-person voice and, perhaps most important, adds some points to the conclusion.

Of course, keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: Protesting Too Much About My Trump Populism Article

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Economic Policy Institute, EPI, Making News, middle class, Populism, The American Conservative, Trump, working class

This “Making News” item will be a little different, since a new detailed crtitique of my recent American Conservative article challenging the charge that President Trump is a phony populist reveals so much about the agitated way so many Americans – including the so-called experts – discuss and debate public policy.

I’ll start by saying flat out that it was flattering to see two economists at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) bother to take on my article. As I’ve written previously, I’ve long worked with EPI researchers on trade issues, learned a great deal from them, and believe that their findings in this area (the one with which I’m most familiar) unusually important.

At the same time, an October 28 analysis of my article disappointed for several important reasons. Principally, the authors got my overall argument wrong. Contrary to their claim, I never contended that the faster wage growth during the Trump years compared with relevant Obama years “justifies the vote-flipping” in most of the counties that supported Trump in 2016 after opting for Barack Obama twice “because the Trump administration has done something that has boosted wage growth in these presumably blue-collar counties.”

What I did say was that the faster wage growth was one development that “clashed loudly with the Trump-as-phony-populist charge.” And this conclusion seemed all the stronger given, as I noted, “the common companion depiction of the last Democratic administration as a working- and middle-class champion.”

After all, the phony populist charge implies that while sweet-talking the working- and middle-class populations of flip counties, the President has spent the last four years working on enriching his fellow one-percenters while leaving his less affluent supporters ever deeper in the hole economically.  

The EPI authors are correct in observing that during the first three Trump years, wage growth in these flip counties lagged the national average. But just how important is that point? As I made clear in the 2019 version of this article:

“The only grounds for economic complaint that Trump flip county residents might legitimately have concerns the gap between their well-being and the rest of the country’s. During the last two Obama years, the number of flip counties whose annual salary growth rates topped the U.S. average rose from 89 to 116. During the first two Trump years, their numbers dropped to 84 and then 83. (Between 2015 and 2016, the salary growth in one of these counties matched the national average.)

“But some context is needed here—and quite possibly it hasn’t been missed by flip county voters. Average annual U.S. salaries rose considerably faster during the first two Trump years (3.41 percent and 3.36 percent, respectively) than during the Obama years (3.08 percent and 1.21 percent, respectively). So since the national salary bar for the flip counties has been significantly higher during the Trump years, the fall-off looks pretty moderate, and in absolute terms, the annual increases remain an improvement.”

And son-of-a-gun: Although I didn’t perform this exercise for the latest article, a check of the same government data relied on by the EPI authors and by me shows that the “national salary bar for the flip counties” (which they call “pivot counties”) remained “significantly higher during the Trump years” through 2019.

It’s entirely possible that flip county voters are seething with anger because by this measure, inequality has widened. But it’s at least as possible that they’re mainly impressed that, for the most part, their own annual pay has risen faster under Mr. Trump than under his predecessor.

The EPI authors make a great deal of the argument that, although my factual case is correct, the President had nothing to do with the flip counties’ improved performance. As mentioned above, however, I never claimed cause-and-effect. I simply described the trend, and then did emphasize its great inconsistency with characterizations of Mr. Trump. Determining cause-and-effect entails both analyses of the many moving parts of the economy during the two periods in question, and then inevitably making judgment calls about the conclusions, and which conclusions count the most (e.g., as discussed, do absolute gains matter the most, or does closing the economic gap).

But I do find myself wondering why they say absolutely nothing about the Trump trade tariffs and immigration restrictions that surely helped the national labor market keep tightening, and wages continue their rise — especially for the kinds of jobs that lower- and middle-income Americans tend to hold.

The Shakespearian observation that it’s possible to “protest too much” is a wonderful description of complaints or rejoinders that are so over-the-top that they suggest more than a smidgeon of underlying doubt. That looks like a good way to describe EPI’s treatment of my recent Trump populism article.

Making News: Back on Wee-Hours NYC Radio Tonight Previewing the Big Debate!

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election 2020, Frank Morano, Joe Biden, Making News, manufacturing, middle class, Populism, presidential debate, semiconductors, tech, The Other Side of Midnight, Trump, WABC AM, working class

I’m pleased to announce that I’m scheduled to appear tonight (technically, Thursday morning) on Frank Morano’s “The Other Side of Midnight” program on New York City’s WABC-AM radio. The segment, slated to start at 1:30 AM, will deal a wide range of subjects – the upcoming Presidential Debate pitting Donald Trump versus Joe Biden, America’s loss of global tech manufacturing leadership, and charges that Trump is a phony working class champion. (Yes, the latter two have been subjects of recent freelance articles.)

You can listen live by clicking this link, and then pressing one of the Play buttons on top. If you can’t – or won’t – stay up that late, I’ll post a link to the podcast as soon as one’s available.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.

Making News: New Magazine Article (Again) Debunks the Trump-as-Phony-Populist Claim

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Making News, middle class, Populism, The American Conservative, Trump, working class

I’m pleased to announce that a new article of mine has just been published in The American Conservative. It updates a piece I wrote last year for this magazine, and reports that, as then, official U.S. data indicate that President Trump’s administration has worked out well economically for most of the middle- and working-class voters in his base who bet that he’d be a genuine champion of their interests.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of media appearances and other developments.

Making News: New Article Spotlights America’s Second-Rate Semiconductor Manufacturing

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Asia-Pacific, China, globalism, innovation, Intel, Making News, manufacturing, offshoring, semiconductors, Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, technology, The National Interest

I’m pleased to report that a new article of mine has just been published in the November-December, 2020 issue of The National Interest. The focus: America’s loss of its longtime global lead in manufacturing semiconductors. Given the central role played by microchips to the constantly acclerating information technology revolution, this setback threatens both the nation’s prosperity and its security — especially since the world’s most advanced semiconductors are now produced a grand total of 100 miles from China.

Click here to read.

And keep checking in with RealityChek for news of upcoming media appearances and other developments.