(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Employment Hits a Downdraft

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The manufacturing jobs results contained in last Friday’s official monthly U.S. employment report were downbeat both because 2,000 positions were shed between April and May, and because that makes two months of losses out of the last three. Domestic industry hasn’t experienced a stretch that bad since the period from late 2019 through the depth of the devastating but brief CCP Virus-induced economy-wide nosedive.

And to add insult to injury, revisions were negative. April’s initially reported gain of 11,000 was downgraded to one of 10,000, and March’s losses were revised down a second time – from 8,000 to 12,00 – the worst monthly read since the 42,000 collapse of April, 2021.

In fact, these collective setbacks pushed manufacturing still deeper into post-pandemic employment laggard status. Since February, 2020 – the last full data month before the CCP Virus pandemic began hammering and distorting the entire economy – manufacturing headcounts have risen by 1.56 percent – less than the 1.61 percent calculable from last month’s release.

During the same period, non-farm payrolls (NFP – the U.S. government’s definition of the national jobs universe) have risen by 2.45 percent – an improvement over the 2.10 percent calculable last month. And private sector headcounts are up by 3.04 percent – an improvement over the 2.78 percent calculable last month.

It’s no surprise then that manufacturing’s share of American employment keeps shrinking. As of the new jobs report, it stood at 8.32 percent of NFP – lower than the 8.35 percent calculable last month and 8.39 percent just before the CCP Virus arrived state-side in force. And it represented 9.73 percent of private sector employment – lower than the 9.76 percent calculable last month and the 9.87 percent calculable in February, 2020.

May’s biggest jobs winners among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors tracked by Washington were highly concentrated in a handful of industries:

>in the big, diverse transportation equipment sector, 10,500 positions were added sequentially, and April’s initially reported 6,700 advance was upgraded to one of 10,600. In all, transportation equipment companies have now registered four straight months of strong job creation, and their employment levels are now 4.78 percent greater than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 versus the 3.81 percent calculable last month;

>electrical equipment, appliance and components, where a sequential jobs boost of 2,100 snapped a two-month losing streak and represented these companies’ best such performance since March, 2022’s increase of 3,000. Consequently, job levels in this sector have now advanced by 2.04 percent during the CCP Virus era and its aftermath, versus the 0.98 percent improvement calculable last month.

>primary metal manufacturing, whose 2,000 employment increase marked a fourth straight month of gains. The monthly rise was also the biggest for these companies since they hired 1,200 net new workers last October. Primary metal manufacturers’ payrolls have now moved to within 2.50 percent of their February, 2020 level, versus the 2.98 shortfall calculable last month; and

>the large chemicals industry, which improved employment by 1,700, and pushed its pandemic-era-plus headcount growth to 7.52 percent, versus the 7.49 percent calculable last month.

May’s losers among these broad were broad-based, with the biggest being:

>furniture and related products, where a jobs retreat of 4,000 was its worst such performance since last November’s 4,200 reduction. Because of this drop, the sector’s workforce is now 5.29 percent smaller than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 3.70 percent calculable last month;

>machinery, whose 2,400 jobs fall-off was its worst such performance since the 6,500 cratering in November, 2021. This decrease, plus some negative revisions,  depressed this diverse sector’s headcount down to 0.95 percent above its February, 2020 level, versus the 1.24 percent increase calculable last month.

This poor machinery performance matters because the widespread use of its products for expansion and modernization make it an important barometer of the health both of the rest of industry and of the entire economy; and

>fabricated metal product manufacturing, another large sector which cut 2,300 positions. Whereas these companies’ headcounts had pulled to within 0.94 percent of their level just before the CCP Virus’ arrival, they’re now back to 1.21 percent below.

In addition to machinery, RealityChek has tracked another industry consistently since the virus began destabilizing the U.S. economy: automotive, whose its fortunes have so often and so heavily influenced determined those of manufacturing as a whole during the pandemic period.

As suggested by the robust hiring performance of the transportation equipment sector, April was a return to this pattern, with vehicle and parts makers bolstering payrolls by 6,800. In addition, April’s initially reported hiring increase of 5,800 was revised all the way up to 9,000 – the best such performance since last December’s 9,500 burst.

This recent surge has pushed automotive employment 8.42 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 7.18 percent calculable last month.

RealityChek has also been monitoring several narrower sectors that have attracted special attention during the CCP Virus era, but where the data are always a month behind those of the above broader sectors, Their April employment performances were generally mixed.

Despite the U.S. government’s decision to provide major subsidies to foster more semiconductor manufacturing in America, the sector’s employment record in April continued a weak spell that began back in January. The April loss of 800 jobs in the semiconductors and related devices category represented the sector’s fourth straight monthly decline, and March’s initially reported 300 increase is now judged to have been a steep drop of 1,700.

These dismal results – no doubt due at least partly to the return of glut conditions in many types of microchips – dragged down these companies’ employment gains to 8.86 percent above immediate pre-pandemic levels, versus the 9.20 percent improvement calculable last month.

Aircraft manufacturers shed jobs for the second straight month in April, with the 1,300 fall the worst monthly performance since May, 2021’s slide of 4,100. Along with mixed revisions, the April tumble meant that the aircraft workforce is now 3.62 percent smaller than just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force versus the 3.29 percent calculable last month.

Hiring by aircraft engines and engine parts-makers in April dipped for the first time in three months, as these industries cut headcount by 300. The decline however, was only the first since July, 2021 and it followed a March jump of 1,000 that stayed unrevised. So employment by these companies slipped further below its February, 2020 levels, but just to 6.66 percent versus the 6.33 percent calculable last month.

By contrast, in non-engine aircraft parts, the workforce expanded for the fifth straight month – the longest period of growth since the months between January and June, 2019. The gain of 400 was also noteworthy because it followed a March increase that was upgraded from 600 to one of 800. Jobs in non-engine aircraft parts maker climbed to within 14.10 percent of their immediate pre-pandemic total, versus the 14.62 percent shortfall calculable last month.

But jobs totals for surgical appliances- and supplies-makers dipped by 500 in April. And the initially reported March flatline result for companies that turned out many of the products used to fight the virus is now judged to have been a shrinkage of 200. So where as of last month, these workforces were pegged at 1.23 percent larger than their February, 2020 levels, this growth has now been pared back to 0.57 percent.

The pharmaceuticals and medicines sector fared much better hiring-wise, with its 1,500 net new jobs its best such performance since January’s 1,700. This improvement, plus positive revisions, brought employment in this sector 15.09 percent higher during the CCP Virus era and its continuing aftermath versus the 14.54 percent increase calculable last month.

And the pharmaceutical sub-sector that contains vaccines added 800 jobs for its best employment month since last June and its increase of 900. The workforce for these vital health security companies is now 20.61 percent larger than in February, 2020, just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force, versus the 19.80 percent calculable last month.

To be sure, domestic manufacturing data has a habit of producing pleasant surprises. (See, e.g., the latest production figures.) But with the overall economy continuing to lose momentum, and the foreign markets that normally buy so many domestically manufactured products performing no better, any near-term improvement in U.S. manufacturing employment will be just that – a pleasant surprise.    

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(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Employment Keeps its Head Above Water

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aircraft, aircraft engine parts, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, appliances, automotive, CCP Virus, computer and electronics products, coronavirus, COVID 19, electrical equipment, electronic components, Employment, fabricated metal products, Jobs, Labor Department, machinery, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, non-metallic mineral products, paper, phamaceuticals, semiconductors, transportation equipment, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

America’s domestic manufacturing delivered no fewer than two upside employment surprises in April, according to today’s latest U.S. Labor Department report. Despite persistent reports of U.S.-based industry’s mounting woes (here‘s one of the most recent), the sector added 11,000 jobs on net last month – not world-beating, but its best such performance since January’s identical number.

And revisions showed that the two-month employment losing streak manufacturing had experienced as of last month’s data…wasn’t. Specifically, February’s originally reported 4,000 monthly manufacturing headcount drop has now been revised to a gain – most recently of 3,000.

At the same time, the revisions were overall slightly negative, because of the downgrade of March’s results from a drop of 1,000 to one of 8,000. If that figure holds, it will represent the sector’s first setback since the 32,000 sequential nosedive in April, 2021 that stemmed largely from the automotive sector’s problems securing semiconductor supplies.

On the plus side, however, these manufacturing revisions weren’t nearly as bad as those for the previous two months revealed in the new report on “non-farm payrolls” (the Labor Department’s definition of the American jobs universe).

In fact, although the new data left domestic manufacturing as a national job-creation laggard, this status essentially stopped deteriorating in April.

Since February, 2020 – the last full data month before the CCP Virus pandemic began hammering and distorting the entire economy – manufacturing headcounts have risen by 1.61 percent. That’s a slight improvement over the 1.55 percent calculable from last month’s NFP release.

Total employment is now up 2.17 percent during this period, versus the 2,10 percent calculable last month. And the workforce for the private sector as a whole has grown by 2.78 percent, versus the 2.71 percent calculable last month.

Consequently, as of the the April results, manufacturing represented 8.35 percent of all NFP jobs – the same share calculable from the previous employment report but higher than the 8.39 percent it hit just before the pandemic’s arrival in force state-side. And it accounted for 9.76 percent of all private sector jobs – also the same as last month’s share but lower than the 9.87 percent from February, 2020. (The difference stems from still-depressed levels of public sector employment, which is part of that NFP category.)

April’s biggest jobs winners among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors tracked by Washington were highly concentrated in a handful of industries:

>the big, diverse transportation equipment sector, which enjoyed its third straight month of strong job creation by boosting employment on month in April by 6,700. Payrolls in these companies are now up by 3.81 percent since immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 3.33 percent calculable last month;

>fabricated metal products, another big sector, where the workforce expanded by 6,300 – its strongest such showing since February, 2022’s 6,900. Moreover, revisions were positive, including a February result initially reported as a drop of 1,100, then downgraded to one of 1,200, but now recorded as a gain of 300. This progress pulled fabicated metals payrolls from the 1.45 percent below their February, 2020 levels calculable last month to witin 0.94 percent; and

>computer and electronic products, where an increase of 3,200 workers was its best monthly performance since last October’s 3,300. Employment in these industries has now advanced by 1.95 percent during the (ongoing) CCP Virus period, versus the 1.70 percent calculable as of last month.

April’s biggest losers among these broad groupings were:

>paper manufacturing, which lost 2,700 employees in its worst such performance since the 4,600 fall-off two Aprils ago. Now down 2.62 percent versus 1.29 calculable last month.

>electrical equipment, appliance, and components, where cuts of 2,600 jobs were made for the second straight month. This loss dragged this grouping’s post-February, 2020 head count gains down to 0.98 percent from the 1.71 percent calculable last month; and

>non-metallic mineral products, where a sequential employment decline of 2,300 represented both the third monthly drop in a row and the biggest since March, 2022’s 5,000. Payrolls in this sector are now 2.19 percent above their immediate pre-pandemic level, versus the 2.81 percent improvement calculable last month.

RealityChek has tracked two industries consistently since the virus began destabilizing the U.S. economy: machinery, because its products are used so widely throughout manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors that it’s a good barometer of industry’s health; and automotive, because its fortunes have so often and so heavily influenced determined those of manufacturing as a whole during the pandemic period.

As a result, the former’s weak April job growth of 200 wasn’t especially good news. Nor was the sharp downward revision of March’s initially reported 3,800 increase (which had been the biggest since November’s 5,800) to just 1,900. Due to these results, machinery’s employment is up just 1.24 percent since the last pre-pandemic full data month of February, 2020 versus the 1.55 percent calculable last month.

By contrast, vehicle and parts makers added 5,800 new workers in April, extended a string of hiring gains to four months, and turned in their best performance since December’s 9,500 binge. Revisions, moreover, were strongly positive, including a February upgrade from an initially reported increase of 200 to one of 1,300 to one of 3,800. These improvements brought automotive’s post-February, 2020 employment increase up to 7.18 percent from the 6.45 percent calculable last month.

RealityChek has also been monitoring several narrower sectors that have attracted special attention during the CCP Virus era, but where the data are always a month behind those of the above broader sectors, Their aemployment performances (in March) were overall moderately positive.

Although U.S.-based semiconductor companies and their foreign counterparts are slated to receive major government funding to foster domestic production, the sector is now experiencing a global glut for most customer industries. Perhaps that’s why February’s unrevised employment loss of 600 for the semiconductors and related devices category was followed by a gain of only 300 in March – and why this increase was only the first monthly advance since December.

Payrolls in this sector are now up 9.28 percent since just before the pandemic’s arrival in force, versus the 10.20 percent calculable last month.

In aircaft manufacturing, which was damaged by pandemic-era travel curbs and Boeing’s production woes, a strong employment comeback came to a halt in March. Indeed, the month’s drop of 700 was the first such retreat since the 300 jobs shed in January, 2022. Further, February’s initially reported 1,300 hiring burst has been revised down to one of 1,100.

Even so, the aircraft workforce is still just 3.29 percent smaller than in February, 2020, versus the 2.91 percent calculable last month.

Hiring by aircraft engines and engine parts-makers, however, jumped by 1,000 in March – their best such performance since they added 4,800 employees in May, 2020, as they tried to rebound from the devastating first wave of the CCP Virus pandemic. February’s initially reported gain of 900 was downgraded to one of 600, but these companies’ payrolls have now recovered to 6.33 percent below their immediate pre-pandemic total, versus the 7.10 percent shortfall calculable last month.

Non-engine aircraft parts jobs climbed by 600 in March, their fourth straight advance. A stretch that long hasn’t been achieved since these businesses boosted their workforces for six consecutive months between January and June, 2019. Due to these increases, non-engine aircraft jobs are now 14.62 percent fewer than in February, 2020, versus the 15.44 percent gap calculable last month.

As for surgical appliances- and supplies-makers, who turned out many of the products used to fight the virus, their employment remained flat in March. Consequently, their workforces remained 1.23 percent larger than just before the pandemic.

The 400-job gain by the pharmaceuticals and medicines sector pushed their CCP Vius employment growth up to 14.54 percent, versus the 14.41 percent calculable last month.

The pharmaceutical sub-sector that contains vaccines lost 300 jobs in March, but its initially reported February rise of 300 has been revised up to one of 400. Its employee count is now 19.80 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 19.90 percent calculable last month.

In the middle of last month, I concluded that the latest official figures on manufacturing output showed the sector to be “spinning its wheels.” These new manufacturing employment numbers seem to be sending the same message – and as with the production data, indicate that industry’s future, like that of the rest of the economy, depending on the fate of domestic demand – and in turn on whether the Federal Reserve will chicken out from its growth-slowing inflation-fighting strategy, and whether and the extent to which politicians will succumb to their traditional temptation to keep voters’ economically happy with robust spending programs, major tax cuts, or some combination of the two.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Amid a U.S.-Wide Hiring Burst, Manufacturing Job Creation Trudges Along

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Although today’s official new U.S. jobs report (for January) showed a completely unexpected burst of monthly employment creation for the economy as a whole, domestic manufacturing shared only modestly in this sequential boom. Moreover, some long-term revisions released along with the new numbers show that U.S.-based industry remains in a hiring slowdown, though one less severe than previously reported.

Between December and January, domestic manufacturers increased payrolls by 19,000 – the best such result since October’s 37,000. December’s initially reported gain of 8,000 has been upgraded to one of 12,000, and November’s identical original estimate of an 8,000 monthly rise now stands at 14,000.

In addition, according to the revisions, for full-year 2022, manufacturing expanded its headcounts by 396,000 (3.15 percent) versus the 379,000 (3.02 percent) recorded last month.

Consequently, domestic industry’s employment advance still decelerated during the second half of last year, the slowdown was less than initially reported. As of last month’s jobs report, its average monthly job creation downshifted from 39,830 between January and June to 23,330 between July and December. Yet the revisions judge that the first half average was 39,170 and that the second half average was 26,830.

January’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the broadest sub-sectors tracked by the U.S. Labor Department were:

>food manufacturing, where hiring hit 6,900. Head counts in this very big industry moved 4.33 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 3.79 percent calculable in last month’s pre-revisions data (the figure that will be used for comparison unless otherwise specified);

>beverage, tobacco, and leather and allied product manufacturing (a new name for miscellaneous non-durable goods), which added 5,000 employees on net for its best such performance since last June’s 6,300 pop. Headcounts here are now 10.45 percent above their February, 2020 level, versus the 9.75 percent rise calculable last month;

>non-metallic minerals, whose workforce grew by 4,200 in its best monthly advance since last February’s 5,600. Jobs are now up 4.02 percent since just before the CCP Virus’ arrival stateside in force, versus the 0.14 percent increase calculable as of last month; and

>fabricated metal product, whose companies added 3,100 employees. Even so, employment in this very big sector sank to 0.91 percent less than in February, 2020, versus the 0.73 percent shortfall calculable last month.

The biggest January job losers among the broadest manufacturing sub-sectors were:

>transportation equipment, a big, diverse group of industries whose 8,400 sequential jobs decline followed a six-month tear that featured a surge of 15,000 in December. Still, the latest result was the worst since last May’s 8,700 plunge. Employment in the transportation equipment cluster has climbed by 2.57 percent since that last full data month before the pandemic’s arrival, versus the two percent figure calculable last month;

>chemicals, another large, diverse category that lost 3,500 workers on month in January. This second straight big drop, however, followed a strong run that began back in late 2021, and employment has now improved by 6.80 percent since February, 2020, versus the 6.44 percent rise calculable last month; and

>computer and electronics product manufacturing shed 700 positions in its weakest monthly perfomance sinc September’s 1,300 drop. But its payrolls moved up to 1.77 percent higher during the pandemic period and its emerging aftermath, versus the 1.39percent increase calculable last month.

RealityChek also tracks employment in two industries of special importance to manufacturing and the economy overall, and their January employment experiences differed dramatically.

Machinery matters greatly because its products are used extensively in nearly all manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and changes in its workforce can signal optimism or pessimism about their prospects.

So the 2,000 monthly increase in machinery workers in January seems to augur well for continued expansion. Moreover, this gain pushed the sector’s employment levels back above where they were just before the pandemic began roiling and distorting the nation’s economy and society – by 1.13 percent. As of last month, they were still 0.24 percent less than in February, 2020.

Yet the automotive industry, whose fortunes have greatly affected domestic industry’s aggregate performance for most of the pandemic period, saw head counts tumble by 6,500 in its worst such performance since last February’s 23,900 plunge. Despite the setback, however, the motor vehicle and parts workforce is now 5.70 percent bigger than just before the pandemic’s arrival, versus the 5.46 percent calculable last month.

RealityChek also tracks a number of narrower sectors that have attracted special attention during the CCP Virus era, but where the data are always a month behind those of the above broader sectors,and their Decembers were substantially mixed jobs-wise, too. Comparisons with pre-revisions November data aren’t possible in these cases, though, because those figures aren’t publicly available.

The shortage-plagued semiconductor and electronic components industries boosted its payrolls by 800, bringing their employment levels 5.56 percent above their totals in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020.

The aircraft manufacturers that were so hard hit both by pandemic-era travel curbs and Boeing’s production woes, continued a recent employment rebound by adding 1,100 more workers in December. But they still employ 5.56 percent fewer than just before the virus’ arrival.

Not surprisingly, aircraft engines and engine parts-makers hired another 800 employees that month for their best such performance since July’s 900. Their headcounts are now off just 8.08 percent since February, 2020.

Non-engine aircraft parts producers’ payrolls increased by 100, but are still down 16.44 percent since the pandemic era began.

The story was very different, however, in many of America’s key healthcare manufacturing sectors, as all three followed here reported December job cuts.

In the surgical appliances and supplies industries that turn out so many of the products used to fight the CCP Virus, employment fell by 400 – their worst such performance since last June’s 600 decline. Their headcounts are now just 1.14 percent bigger than in February, 2020

The big pharmaceuticals and medicines sectors shrank their workforces by 1,100 – the most since July’s 2,900 falloff. But employment here is still up 14.25 percent since that last full pre-pandemic data month of February, 2020.

The pharmaceutical sub-sector that contains vaccines let 1,200 employees go in December in its worst such performance since back in December, 2018 when they also laid off 1,200. But since February, 2020, their payrolls have still risen by 20.10 percent.

Optimists can legitimately observe that U.S.-based manufacturing’s meh employment increases lately have been pretty impressive given that the sector has been in a recession (albeit a mild one) for just over a year. But since the pandemic’s peak in the spring of 2020, it’s benefited pretty consistently from a strongly recovering broader economy. It’s anything but clear if domestic industry can keep up even that sluggish pace if the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation policies do start slowing growth, much less trigger a recession.    

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Takes the Recent U.S. Job Creation Lead

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Maybe the next sets of official figures will show that U.S.-based manufacturing is finally succumbing to a series of formidable obstacles that have been placed in its way recently and not-so-recently: signs of a slowing U.S. economy, a Federal Reserve whose anti-inflation policies seem certain to undercut growth, major troubles in the big export markets so important to domestic industry, a super-strong dollar that harms its price-competitiveness all over the world, and continuing supply chain snags.

Yet as of the October jobs data released on Friday, domestic industry has continued to hire – which is almost always a sign of optimism from the employers with skin in the game.

Domestic industry added 32,000 workers on month in October, and revisions were positive. September’s initially reported gain of 22,000 was bumped up to 23,000. After being revised up from 22,000 to 29,000, the August numbers received another upgrade, to 36,000. And July’s final figure came in at an upwardly revised 37,000.

As a result, manufacturing payrolls are now 1.07 percent greater than in February, 2020, the last full data month before the CCP Virus pandemic began massively weakening and distorting the entire economy. As of last month’s jobs report, the pandemic-era gain had been 0.74 percent.

In fact, manufacturers’ hiring in October was so strong that it moved into the national post-February, 2020 job-creation lead. Employment in the overall private sector has expanded by just 1.03 percent since then, and in the entire American jobs universe – which includes public sector jobs and which the U.S. Labor Department calls “non-farm payrolls” (NFP) – is up only 0.34 percent.

As a result, manufacturing jobs now make up 9.87 percent of all U.S. private sector jobs, versus the immediate pre-pandemic figure of 9.83 percent, and 8.43 percent of all non-farm jobs, versus the 8.38 percent figure in February, 2020.

The October increases, moreover, kept manufacturing employment at its highest level (12.880 million) since November, 2008’s 13.034 million.

October’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the broadest sub-sectors tracked by the U.S. Labor Department were:

>the computer and electronics products industries, which boosted employment by 5,400 – its best such perfomance since the 6,300 workers added in June, 2020, early during the strong recovery from the first wave of the CCP Virus.

Revisions overall were mixed, though. September’s initially reported increase of 400 was downgraded to a loss of 500. August’s performance was first downgraded from a 4,500 increase to a 3,600 advance and then back up to one of 4,200. And July’s originally reported ise of 3,300 remained at 4,200 after being revised up to 3,900.

Consequently, computer and electronics employment is now up 1.41 percent since February, 2020, versus the 0.94 percent calculable as of last month. And although the increase seems small, it’s important to remember that these companies only cut headcounts modestly during the deep but short recession brought on by the virus’ first wave and lockdowns and voluntary behavior curbs it sparked;

>fabricated metal products, whose payrolls climbed by 5,200. Revisions were negative on balance. September’s initially reported increase of 6,300 – the best since May’s 6,600 – was revised down to 5,500. August’s improvement, already downgraded from 4,700 to 2,800, was upgraded to 3,100. And after an upgrade from 4,200 to 4,600, July’s increase is now judged to be 4,300.

Yet this big sector’s employment closed to within 1.04 percent of its February, 2020 level, versus the 1.36 percent gap that remained as of last month;

>transportation equipment, another very big group of industries, which expanded headcounts by 4,700 in October. Revisions? They were huge and generally positive. September’s initially reported increase of 8,400 was revised down to 4,700. But August’s figures, which had been upgraded all the way from a 2,400 gain to one of 10,500 saw a near-doubling 20,900 – the best such total since March’s 25,000 burst. July, also massively upgraded from a 2,200 increase to one of 12,600, remained at a further upgraded 13,600.

These revisions were enough to push transportation equipment employment higher than its February, 2020 level for the first time (though by just 0.14 percent). As of last month’s jobs report, these industries’ workforces were still 0.52 percent below; and

>non-metallic mineral products, a smallish sector that made 3,200 net new hires in October, and enjoyed generally positive revisions. September’sinitially reported 1,500 loss was upgraded to one of just 200. August’s original 2,800 gain was revised up a second time – from 3,400 to 4,100. But July’s initially reported 1,000 increase remained at a downwardly revised 700 improvement after being upgraded to 1,100.

October’s biggest manufacturing jobs losers among the broadest sub-sectors tracked by the U.S. Labor Department were:

>wood products, where employment slipped by 900, and revisions were generally negative. September’s initially reported gain of 2,200 – this sector’s best since May’s 3,600 – is now judged to be no gain. August’s initially reported loss of 100, first revised down to one of 600, it now estimated as a fall-off of 2,200 – the worst performance since the 30,200 nosedive in April, 2020, when the pandemic-driven downturn was at its worst. At least July’s initially reported rise of 200 has been upgraded to one of 700 and finally to 1,300.

These setbacks drove wood products jobs levels down from 6.76 percent higher than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, to 5.60 percent greater since then;

>textile mills, whose jobs decline of 700 was its weakest such perfomance since the same decline in January. Revisions were slightly positive. September’s initially 500-jobs reduction is now estimated as a gain of 300. August’s initially reported loss of 400 jobs has now been gone unrevised twice, and July’s initially reported decrease of 600 has now gone unrevised three straight times.

Textile mill employment has now shrunk by 6.94 percent since February, 2020, versus the 7.03 percent retreat calculable last month; and .

>textile product mills, which saw an employment dip of 600. Revisions were slight and mixed. September’s initially reported payroll loss of 700 stayed unrevised. August’s initially reported employee decrease of 1,000 was first upgraded to one of 800 but then revised back down to 900 (the worst since an identical contraction in September, 2021). And July’s results, first upgraded to no change and then revised down to a decrease of 100 are now judged as a flat-line.

Still, whereas last month, textile product mill payrolls were down by 6.59 percent versus their numbers just before the pandemic struck, the gap has now widened to 7.22 percent.

Two industries followed closely by RealityChek throughout the CCP Virus period registered good employment gains in October.

The automotive sector saw jobs growth of 4,800 – and that was its worst performance since it shed 14,000 positions in February. As with the broader transportation equipment sector in which it’s placed, revisions were dramatic and generally positive. September’s initially reported increase of 8,300 was revised down to 7,400. But after having been upgraded from a drop of 1,900 to a rise of 4,000, August’s results were then revised all the way up to 12,100 – the best gain since March’s 18,400 surge. And July’s initially reported decrease of 2,200 has been upgraded to an increase first of 3,600 and then to its final figure of 8,400.

These gyrations brought automotive employment 3.54 percent above its February, 2020 levels, as opposed to the 2.33 percent calculable last month.

Machinery, a manufacturing and economy bellwether because its products are so widely used, generated good jobs news in October, too, with net hiring hitting 3,000 – the best such performance since April’s 5,800 increase. September’s initially reported decline of 1,700 (the worst since last November’s 7,000) was upgraded to one of just 300. August’s gains were upgraded to 2,800 after having been revised down from that level to 2,200. But July’s initially reported increase of 3,400 stayed at the 2,800 level estimated after being downwardly revised to 3,300.

Machinery employment has now closed to within 0.90 percent of its level in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 1.40 percent shortfall calculable last month.

As known by RealityChek regulars, data for several other industries of special interest since the CCP Virus arrived in force are always a month behind the figures for these broader categories. Unfortunately, their September results varied considerably.

The semiconductor industry, whose shortages have bedeviled numerous other manufacturing sectors (especially vehicle and parts makers), grew headcount by 800 – which seems OK until you realize that this increase was its smallest since March’s 400. Revisions were mixed, with August’s initially reported 1,200 increase upgraded to 1,500; and July’s initially reported 2,300 advance was downgraded to 2,200 (still the best such result since the payrolls jumped by 3,000 in June, 2020, during the first pandemic wave recovery) and then unchanged.

Employment in the sector is now up 5.74 percent since just before the virus’ arrival in force, versus the 5.15 percent calculable last month. But as with the broader computer and electronics products category in which it’s placed, it needs to be remembered that semiconductor makers cut almost no jobs during the height of the pandemic.

Aircraft manufacturers added 1,300 jobs on month in September, and revisions were positive. August’s initially reported 1,300 increase was upgraded to 1,700, and July’s initially reported 2,400 gain remained at an upwardly revised 2,500 – their best such results since June, 2021’s 4,400.

U.S. aircraft manufacturing has been harmed not only by the pandemic-era travel restrictions, but by Boeing’ssafety woes. But the recent increases have pulled employment by these companies to within 7.41 percent of their immediate pre-CCP Virus levels, versus the 8.11 percent calculable last month.

This progress, however, didn’t extend to the rest of the aerospace indsustry. Aircraft engines- and engine parts-makers reduced payrolls by 100 in September – the first decrease since July, 2021’s 200. But the August and July results of job growth of 800 each were left unrevised. (The initial July estimate was 900.)

Payrolls in this sector are now 8.83 percent lower than in February, 2020, versus the 8.62 percent calculable last month.

Non-engine aircraft parts- and equipment-makers lowered their headcounts by an even greater 500, and evisions were mixed. August’s initially reported net new hiring of 1,100 was upgraded to 1,300 (the best such result since January’s 1,400). But July’s initially reported loss of 600 jobs stayed at a downgraded one of 800 (the worst such performance since December’s 900).

Consequently, these companies’ payrolls have now shrunk by 14.36 percent since the pandemic first struck, versus the 14.10 percent calculable last month.

Employment also dipped in the surgical appliances and supplies category, which supplies so many of the Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and other medical products used to fight the pandemic. But even though the industry cut 200 jobs in September (the first monthly loss since June’s 800), revisions were positive. August’s initially reported gain of 700 was revised up to one of 900 (the best since March’s 1,000), and July’s results, first pegged at a 700 gain, remained at an upwardly revised increase of 800.

Surgical appliances and supplies employment is now up by 5.11 percent since February, 2020, versus the 4.11 percent calculable last month.

Results were mixed as well in pharmaceuticals and medicines. Companies in that category boosted payrolls by 1,000 in September, but revisions were significantly negative. August’s initially reported job growth of 1,700 was downgraded to an increase of 300, and July’s results, first estimated as a gain of 500 positions, remained as a downwardly revised loss of 1,000 – the worst such result since an identical reduction in March, 2019 – before the pandemic.

Employment in this industry is still much higher than just before the pandemic’s arrival, but by 11.58 percent versus the 11.71 percent calculable last month.

And in the medicines subsector containing vaccines, those companies expanded headcounts by 200 in September, but revisions were mixed, too. August’s initially reported 900 jobs increase is now estimated as a loss of 600 (the biggest drop since the 1,100 positions eliminated in December, 2018), but July’s initially reported cut of 200 remained at an upwardly revised decrease of 100.

Up 26.90 percent from February, 2020 levels as of last month, payrolls in this subsector are now 25.58 percent higher.

The short-term employment outlook for U.S.-based manufacturing looks unusually uncertain even by the unusually high standards of an American economy that’s still greatly distorted by the pandemic and pandemic responses.  Reasons for optimism? They include the vast amount of money American households and businesses still have to spend, which should keep propping up domestic demand for American manufactures, the lag between the time when Federal Reserve inflation-fighting tightening began and the time when it starts meaningfully slowing economic activity, and the continued easing of supply chain snags. And the new legislation to revive U.S. semiconductor manufacturing should start generating more hiring in that sector and its suppliers before too long. 

At the same time, pessimists can point to developments like a widely forecast global slowdown bound to reduce foreign demand for U.S. domestic manufactures; manufacturing giant China’s insistence on keeping its Zero Covid policy, which has seriously disrupted both the economy of the People’s Republic and worldwide transportation networks;  and continued high inflation (including for the energy used by U.S.-based industry) that presumably will start giving American spenders pause at some point. (The interest rate-sensitive housing sector, a big user of manufactured products, is already reeling from Fed tightening.)    

So just like the Fed, RealityChek will stay data dependent as it monitors and especially prognosticates on domestic manufacturing’s future.         

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Slower Growth and More Hiring in U.S. Manufacturing, Too

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aerospace, aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, CCP Virus, chemicals, coronavirus, COVID 19, electronics products, Employment, fabricated metal products, furniture, Jobs, machinery, manufacturing, medicines, miscellaneous durable goods, non-farm jobs, non-farm payrolls, paper, paper and paper products, pharmaceuticals, recession, semiconductors, surgical equipment, textiles, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

When it comes both to the U.S. economy in general and domestic manufacturing in particular, this morning’s official jobs report (for July) strongly supported a widely held supposition of economists – that employment is a lagging indicator of trouble.

That’s because laying off workers supposedly is seen as a last resort by businesses facing bad times, and the new results for non-farm payrolls (the U.S. government’s definition of the national jobs universe) seems to have validated this view in spades. Even though the economic growth has been slowing dramatically from last year’s rapid pace, employers boosted their headcounts by a stunning 528,000 last month (including 471,000 in the private sector). And even though inflation-adjusted American manufacturing production has fallen for the last two data months (May and June – the July results will come out August 16), U.S.-based industry added workers for the fifteenth straight month.

Indeed, July’s 30,000 increase in manufacturing jobs was the biggest monthly gain since April’s 61,000. And the numbers included the best hiring month of all time (or at least since that data series began in 1990) for the big pharmaceuticals and medicines industry. Moreover, revisions left the solid results of June and May virtually unchanged.

As a result, domestic manufacturing employment is 0.32 percent higher than its level in February, 2020 – just before the CCP Virus struck the U.S. economy in force and sent economic activity spiraling downward. Last month, when it finally regained its pre-pandemic jobs levels, the net gain was 0.09 percent.

Since July’s overall jobs improvement was so great, manufacturing is no longer the economy’s post-pandemic employment champion. That title has passed again to the total private sector, where payrolls are now 0.49 percent higher than in February, 2020. But manufacturing’s net job creation pace continues to exceed that of the non-farm economy (which includes the public sector). Its workforce is just 0.02 percent larger than just before the pandemic’s arrival.

The huge July surge in non-farm and private sector net hiring did depress manufacturing’s share of those workforces – from 9.86 percent of private sector jobs to 9.85 percent, and from 8.42 percent of non-farm jobs to 8.41 percent. But manufacturing employment is still up in relative terms since February, 2020 – climbing from 9.83 percent of private sector employment and 8.38 percent of non-farm employment.

Job-creation winners abounded throughout manufacturing’s major sectors in July, with the standouts being:

>fabricated metals products, where payrolls grew by 4,200. Revisions, however, continued to be weak, with June’s sequential loss remaining at 600; May’s originally reported 7,100 surge revised lower first to 6,900 and now to 6,600 (still the best since February’s 9,300 pop); and April’s results staying at a twice downgraded 1,400. Employment in this big sector is now 2.04 percent below its immediate pre-pandemic levels, versus the 2.31 percent shortfall calculable last month;

>miscellaneous durable goods (the major category containing many of the key medical devices used to combat the virus), which added 3,700 workers in its strongest monthly performance since last November’s 10,400. But revisions were on balance negative here, too, with June’s initially reported 2,400 job growth now judged to have been 1,700, May’s initially upgraded 1,300 advance downgraded to 1,000, and only April’s results breaking the pattern, with its upgraded 600 job loss staying unchanged.

Miscellaneous goods’ workforce is now 2.79 percent higher than in February, 2020, versus the 2.36 percent calculable last month;

>chemicals, which remained on a hot streak last month. Its companies added 3,700 employees on month in July, its June performance was revised way up from a 1,200 improvement to 4,500, its initially downgraded May rise upgraded to 5,100 (the greatest improvement since January’s 5,500), and April’s increase settling at 1,700 after being first reported as 1,000. As of July, 5.84 percent more workers were employed in the chemicals industry than in February, 2020, versus the 4.83 percent calculable last month; 

>machinery, which RealityChek regulars know is a bellwether for the rest of manufacturing and the whole economy because of how widely its products are used. Its employment increased by 3,400 on month in July; June’s initially reported 1,000 rise is now pegged as 1,600; May’s initially reported 3,200 job decrease has now ben revised all the way up to a jobs gain of 200; and April’s final total stayed at a twice downgraded 5,800. Consequently, machinery employment has rebounded to within 1.47 percent of its immediate pre-pandemic level, versus the 2.05 percent shortfall calculable last month; and 

>computer and electronics products, which contains shortage-plagued semiconductor sector, also boosted its employment by 3,400 sequentially in July. June’s initially reported 2,300 net new job creation is now judged to have been 2,000, but May’s totals were revised up a second time, to 5,300 (its best monthly performance since the 6,300 recorded in May, 2020, during the economy’s strong bounceback from the first CCP virus wave), and April’s thrice upgraded figure remained the same at 4,900. This progress pushed headcounts in this sector 0.41 percent above their February, 2020 levels, versus the 0.11 percent calculable last month.

The worst performers among July’s few maufacturing losers:

>paper and paper products, where employment fell month-to-month by 1,200. At the same time, June’s initially reported 1,200 job increase was upgraded to 1,500; May’s advance was revised down but still remained at an increase of 700; and April’s initially downwardly revised 1,300 employment rise stayed at an upwardly revised 2,100 increase. Nonetheless, there are now 0.86 percent fewer jobs in paper and paper products compared with February, 2020, versus the 0.22 percent dip calculable last month;

>textile mills, whose July employment was off by 600. Revisions were mixed, with June’s initially reported jobs bump of 700 now judged to have been 300, but May’s initially reported payroll decrease of 700 now upgraded to a loss of 400, and April’s upgraded 800-job increase remaining the same. Since just before the pandemic arrived,, however, textile mill jobs have shrunk by 6.18 percent, versus the 5.15 percent calculable last month; and

>furniture and related products, where headcounts sank by 600 on month. Worse, revisions on balance were decidedly negative. June’s initially reported employment improvement of 100 is now considered to be a drop of 1,100; May’s results, first reported as a 1,000 jump, were downgraded a second time to a mere 100 advance; and April’s initially reported 1,100 drop have been revised up only to 900 job loss. Whereas as of last month, the furniture complex’s workforce had risen to 0.60 higher than its February, 2020 level, it’s now sunk back to 0.03 percent lower.

As always, the most detailed employment data for pandemic-related industries are one month behind those in the broader categories, and most turned in performances even better than manufacturing as a whole.

The semiconductor industry is still struggling with the aforementioned shortages that are hampering so many other parts of the economy. But the 1,700 jobs it added on month in June were the most since the 1,800 in January, 2019, and revisions were positive. May’s initially reported 800 jobs gain is now pegged as having been 1,000 and April’s first reported 100 increase has been upgraded more than ten-fold – to 1,100.

The upshot seems to be that the recent high profile announcements of new domestic microchip fab construction are showing up in the employment data. As of last month, the sector’s payrolls were only 2.20 percent higher than just before the pandemic’s large-scale onset (though in fairness, semiconductor employment actually rose during the steep 2020 downturn). As of today, however, employment is up 3.22 percent during that period. (Note: The 1,400 semiconductor job growth I said last month took place in December, 2021 in fact came in the previous December. Apologies for the error.)

In surgical appliances and supplies (which includes so many of the personal protective equipment and other medical goods so widely used to fight the CCP Virus), June employment dropped by 800 – these companies’ worst monthly performance since last July’s 1,100 decline. At least revisions were positive. May’s initially reported gain of 400 is now estimated at 500, and April’s figure stayed at an upgraded loss of 100. The surgical appliances and supplies sector now employs 3.69 percent more workers than in February, 2020; last month, this increase had been 4.36 percent.

The pharmaceuticals and medicines industry, by contrast, generated record-smashing net job creation in June. The 4,300 rise was the biggest monthly total ever in a data series that goes back to 1990, and greatly eclipsed the old mark of 3,200 recorded in September, 2019. Revisions, moreover, were excellent, with May’s initially reported 100 payroll decline now raised all the way up to a 1,200 gain, and April’s increase remaining at an upgraded 1,500. Headcounts in these businesses are now 11.58 percent higher than just before the pandemic, versus the 10.10 percent calculable last month.

The much smaller medicines subsector containing vaccines performed well on the jobs front, too, hiring 1,100 net new workers in June. In addition, May’s initially reported 600 increase is now judged to have been 700, and April’s monthly improvement stayed at 1,100. This subsector’s workforce has now expanded by 26.29 percent since just before the pandemic arrived in force, as opposed to the 24.47 percent calculable last month.

An aerospace cluster hit especially hard by CCP Virus-related travel restrictions experienced another robust employment month in June.

Aircraft companies hired 1,500 net new workers on month, and revisions were excellent as well. May’s initially reported net new hires figure was upgraded from 1,300 to 1,600 – their best such performance since last June’s increase of 4,400 (mis-reported last month as a rise of 4,000). And April’s advance remained at an upgraded 500. As a result, the aircraft workforce is only 9.64 percent smaller than just before the pandemic arrived, versus the 10.30 percent calculable last month.

Aircraft engines and engine parts jobs were up by 800 sequentially in June, May’s initially reported increase of 700 was revised up to 900, but April’s results stayed at a downwardly revised 800. This improvement enabled employment at these firms to come within 9.81 percent of their February, 2020 levels, versus the 10.91 percent calculable last month.

These increases were mirrored in the non-engine aircraft parts and equipment industry, which added 600 workers on month. May’s initially reported 300 jobs increase remained unrevised as did April’s upgraded 400 increase. The non-engine aircraft parts and equipment sectors, as a result, crept to within 14.62 percent of their employment levels of February, 2020, versus the 15.14 percent calculable last month.

The big questions for American workers, and domestic industry as a whole including manufacturing, are whether economic growth will really continue to deteriorate further (here’s a recent forecast that it won’t, at least in the third quarter); and if it does, will businesses continue to “hoard” labor. Let me know if there’s anyone you trust to provide accurate answers.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S.-Based Manufacturing Returns to Pre-Pandemic Job Levels

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aerospace, aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Employment, fabricated metal products, Federal Reserve, food products, inflation, Jobs, Labor Department, machinery, manufacturing, miscellaneous non-durable goods, monetary policy, non-farm jobs, non-farm payrolls, personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, PPE, printing, private sector, recession, semiconductors, supply chain, surgical equipment, textiles, transportation equipment, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

A power outage in my Maryland suburb of Washington, D.C. prevented me from filing my usual same-day post on the manufacturing highlights of the latest official U.S. jobs release, but the big news is still eminently worth reporting:

Specifically, “It’s back.” According to yesterday’s employment report from the Labor Department (for June), as was the case with the private sector overall, U.S.-based manufacturing last month finally regained all the jobs it lost – and then some – during the deep but short CCP Virus- and lockdowns-induced recession of spring, 2020.

The new figures show that by adding 29,000 workers on net sequentially during June, and having added slightly more to their headcounts in April than previously reported, domestic industry’s employment last month stood at 12.797 million. That’s 0.09 percent more than the 12.785 million on their payrolls in February, 2020, the last full data month before the pandemic’s arrival in force began decimating and distorting the economy.

As of June, American private sector workers now number 129.765 million – 0.11 percent above its immediate pre-pandemic level of 129.625 million.

Yet the entire non-farm economy (the employment universe of the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks employment trends for the federal government) still hasn’t recovered all the jobs it lost during March and April, 2020. Because public sector employment is still off some, June’s 151.980 million non-farm payroll count remains 2.38 percent below the February, 2020 total of 152.504 million.

The June jobs report left manufacturing employment at the same level of total non-farm employment (8.42 percent) as in May, and a slightly smaller (9.86 percent versus 9.87 percent) share of total pivate sector employment that month.

But since the CCP Virus’ large-scale arrival, domestic industry has boosted these percentages from 8.38 percent and 9.83 percent, respectively.

Another reason for optimism about the manufacturing results of the June jobs report: The 29,000 payrolls boost was a nice increase from May’s unrevised 18,000 increase – the worst monthly performance since April, 2021’s 28,000. And as noted above, this past April’s excellent results saw their second upward revision – from 58,000 to 61,000 (the highest month-to-month gain since last July’s 62,000).

May’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the broadest Individual industry categories monitored by the Labor Department were:

>transportation equipment, which has been on a genuine rollercoaster. June’s hiring increase of 7,200 followed a May loss revised down from 7,900 to 9,800 – the worst such monthly drop since February’s 19,900. Yet the April figure for the sector was upgraded from an unrevised 19,500 to 20,100 – and followed a March advance of 25,000. That was the best such performance since October’s 28,200.

Yet all this tumult – due largely to an ongoing semiconductor shortage still plaguing the automotive sector in particular – still left transportation equipment employment 2.23 percent lower than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020 – as opposed to the 2.57 percent figure calculable last month;

>miscellaneous non-durable goods, where headcounts improved by 5,400 – the biggest monthly increase since February, 2021’s 5,500. But volatility is evident here, too, as May’s previously reported 2,900 jobs decrease was revised downgraded 3,400 – the biggest decline since December, 2020’s -9,400. Yet payrolls in this catch-all sector are now 9.68 percent higher than in February, 2020 – up from the 8.12 percent calculable from last month’s figures;

>plastics and rubber products, whose 5,300 hiring advance was its best since April’s now twice upgraded 8,000 rise. Moreover, May’s initially reported jobs decrease of 400 is now judged to have been a gain of 2,600. These companies now employ 4.33 percent more workers than just before the pandemic’s large-scale arrival in February, 2020, versus the 2.88 percent calculable last month; and

>food manufacturing, which added 4,800 employees on month in June. In addition, May’s initially reported 6,100 increase was revised up to 7,600, more than offsetting a second downgrade of the April advance from 7,700 0 7,100. This huge industry’s workforce is now 2.87 percent greater than in February, 2020, as opposed to the 2.53 percent figure calculable last month.

The biggest jobs losers in June among the broadest manufacturing sectors were:

>printing and related support activities, where 900 jobs were cut in the biggest monthly decrease since January’s 1,800. Worse, May’s initially reported employment retreat of 400 is now estimated at 700, and April’s upgraded increase (of 3,100) was revised down to 3,900. Employment by these companies is now down by 10.63 percent since just before the CCP Virus’ arrival in force in February, 2020, versus the 10.23 percent calculable last month;

>textile product mills, whose sequential June jobs loss of 700 was its worst since last September’s 900. May’s initially reported 100 employment dip stayed unrevised, but April’s initially upgraded results (from a headcount loss of 400 to one of 300) is now judged to be a decline of 400 once again. Consequently, payrolls in this sector are now off by 5.32 percent since February, 2020, as opposed t the 4.60 percent calculable last month; and

>fabricated metal products, whose 600 job loss in June was its worst such retreat since April, 2021’s 1,600, and the first fall-off since then. Revisions were mixed, with May’s initially reported increase of 7,100 downgraded to 6,900 (still its best sequential performance since February’s 9,300 surge) but April’s losses were revised down again, from 1,600 to 1,400. Despite its recent hiring hot streak, however, payrolls in this large sector are still 2.31 percent below pre-pandemic-y February, 2020’s level, versus the 2.24 percent calculable last month.

As known by RealityChek regulars, the big machinery industry is a bellwether for all of domestic manufacturing and indeed the entire U.S. economy, since so many industries use its products. So it was definitely good news that employment in this sector rose on month in June by 1,000 after having dropped by a downwardly adjusted 3,200 in May. That’s the sector’s worst such performance since it shed 7,000 workers last November. (Note: Last month, I mistakenly reported the May, 2021 decrease at 7,900.)

Yet April’s hiring gains were revised down again – from 5,900 to 5,800 – and machinery employment is still off since just before the pandemic’s arrival by 2.05 percent, versus the 2.12 percent calculable last month.

As always, the most detailed employment data for pandemic-related industries are one month behind those in the broader categories, and interestingly, their May performance was generally better than that for domestic industry as a whole.

The semiconductor industry still struggling with the aforementioned shortages boosted employment on month in May by 800, and April’s initially reported 900 increase was revised up to 1,100 – the best since December’s 1,400. Even though March’s jobs improvement remained at a downgraded 400, payrolls in the sector moved up to 2.20 percent higher than just before the pandemic arrived in February, 2020 from the 1.66 percent calculable last month. And although progress seems modest, it must be remembered that even during the early spring, 2020 downturn, these companies added to their headcounts.

In surgical appliances and supplies (which includes all the personal protective equipment and other medical goods so widely used to fight the CCP Virus), employment in May climbed by 400 on month, April’s initially reported 200 loss is now estimated at just 100, and March’s unrevised 1,100 increase stayed unrevised. These results mean that these sectors have increased their workforces by 4.36 percent since February, 2020, versus the 3.88 percent calculable last month.

The large pharmaceuticals and medicines industry was a partial exception to this pattern, losing 100 jobs sequentially in May. But April’s initially reported 1,400 rise (the best monthly performance since last June’s 2,600) is now judged to have been 1,500. And March’s advance stayed at an upwardly revised 1,200. As a result, these industries now employ 10.10 percent more workers than in immediately pre-pandemic-y February, 2020, versus the 9.78 percent calculable last month.

The medicines subsector containing vaccines hired 600 net new employees on month in May, April’s 1,100 payrolls increase (the best such performance since December’s 2,000), stayed unrevised, as was March’s previously upgraded 600 increase. Consequently, these companies’ headcounts are now 25.08 percent above their February, 2020 levels, versus the 24.47 percent improvement calculable last month.

Good job creation also continued throughout an aerospace cluster hit especially hard by CCP Virus-related travel restrictions. Aircraft manufacturers added 1,300 workers in May, their most robust monthly hiring since last June’s 4,000 jump. April’s initially reported climb of 200 was upgraded to 500, and March’s results stayed at an upwardly revised 1,200. These companies’ workforces have now crept to within 10.30 percent of their pre-pandemic total, versus the 10.96 percent shortfall calculable last month.\

In aircraft engines and engine parts, jobs rose by 700 sequentially in May, and though April’s initially reported increase of 900 is now judged to be 800, it was still the best such performance since February’s increase of 900. March’s new hires stayed at an upwardly revised 600, leaving employment in this sector 10.91 percent below February, 2020 levels, versus the 11.56 percent calculable last month.\

Non-engine aircraft parts and equipment makers kept making steady employment progress as well. They added 300 workers on month in May, and their initially reported new April hiring of 300 is now estimated at 400. March’s employment increase stayed unrevised at 700, but this sector still employs 15.14 percent fewer workers than in February, 2020, versus the 15.48 percent calculable last month.

With the Federal Reserve still on record as seeing the need for slowing the economy’s growth (at best) in order to fight inflation, signs of recession multiplying (e.g., here), domestic industry’s major export markets looking increasingly weak as well, the Ukraine War dragging on, and supply chain problems ongoing (see, e.g., here and here) it’s difficult to expect U.S.-based manufacturers to escape these powerful downdrafts. But these companies have kept turning in remarkably strong results in production as well as hiring, so who’s to say they can’t keep bucking the odds?

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing’s Hiring Takes a (Slight) Breather

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aerospace, aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, automotive, CCP Virus, chemicals, computer and electronics products, coronavirus, COVID 19, fabricated metals products, Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, food products, inflation, Jobs, Labor Department, machinery, manufacturing, medical devices, medicines, monetary policy, non-farm jobs, non-farm payrolls, personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, PPE, semiconductor shortages, semiconductors, stimulus, transportation equipment, Ukraine, Ukraine-Russia war, vaccines, wood products, {What's Left of) Our Economy

U.S.-based manufacturing’s employment performance has been so strong lately that the 18,000 net gain for May reported in today’s official U.S. jobs report was the worst such performance in more than a year – specifically, since April, 2021’s 28,000 employment loss. And even that dismal result stemmed mainly from automotive factories that were shut down due to semiconductor shortages – not from any underlying weakness in domestic industry.

Moreover, revisions of the last several months’ of sizable hiring increases were revised higher. April’s initially reported 55,000 increase is now pegged at 61,000, and March’s headcount boost was upgraded again, this time all the way from 43,000 to 58,000.

Indeed, taken together, this payroll surge has enabled U.S.-based manufacturing to increase its share of American jobs again. As of May, industry’s employment as a share of the U.S. total (called “non-farm payrolls” by the Labor Department that releases the data) rose sequentially from the 8.41 percent calculable last month to 8.42 percent. And the manufacturing share of total private sector jobs climbed from the 9.86 percent calculable last month to 9.87 percent..

The improvement since February, 2020 – the last full data month before the CCP Virus’ arrival began roiling and distorting the entire U.S. economy – has been even greater. Then, manufacturing jobs represented just 8.38 percent of all non-farm jobs and 9.83 percent of all private sector employment.

Domestic industry still slightly lags the private sector in terms of regaining jobs lost during the worst of the pandemic-induced recession of March and April, 2020. The latter has recovered 99.01 percent of the 21.016 million jobs it shed, compared with manufacturing’s 98.75 percent of its 1.345 million lost jobs.

But the main reason is that industry’s jobs losses during those months were smaller proportionately than those of the private sector overall.

Viewed from another vantage point, the May figures mean that manufacturing employment is just 0.13 percent smaller than just before the pandemic struck.

May’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the broadest individual industry categories tracked by the Labor Department were:

>fabricated metals products, which boosted employment on month by 7,100 – the sector’s biggest rise since since February’s 9,300. Its recent hiring spree has brought fabricated metals products makers’ payrolls to within 2.24 percent of their immediate pre-CCP Virus (February, 2020) levels;

>food products,where payrolls grew by 6,100 sequentially in May. Employment in this enormous sector is now 2.53 percent higher than in February, 2020;

>the huge computer and electronics products sector, whose headcount improved by 4,400 over April’s levels. As a result, its workforce is now just 0.19 percent smaller than in immediate pre-pandemic-y February, 2020;

>wood products, which added 3,800 employees in May over its April levels. Along with April’s identical gain, these results were these businesses’ best since May, 2020’s 13,800 jump, during the strong initial recovery from the virus-induced downturn. Wood products now employs 6.85 percent more workers than in February, 2020; and

>chemicals, a very big industry whose workforce was up in May by 3,700 over the April total. The result was the best since January’s 5,500 sequential jobs growth, and pushed employment in this industry 4.76 percent higher than in February. 2020.

The biggest May job losers among those broad manufacturing groupings were:

>transportation equipment, another enormous category where employment fell by 7,900 month-to-month in May. That drop was the biggest since February’s 19,900 nosedive. But it followed an April monthly increase that was revised up from 13,700 to 19.500. All this volatility – heavily influenced by the aforementioned semiconductor shortage that has plagued the automotive industry – has left transportation equipment payrolls 2.57 percent smaller than just before the pandemic’s arrival in February, 2020;

>machinery, whose 7,900 sequential job decline in May was its worst such result and first monthly decrease since November’s 7,000. Moreover, April’s initially reported 7,400 payroll increase in machinery is now judged to be only 5,900. These developments are discouraging because machinery’s products are used so widely throughout the entire economy, and prolonged hiring doldrums could reflect a slowdown in demand that could presage weakness in other sectors. Machinery payrolls are now down 2.12 percent since February, 2020; andent since February 2020; and

>miscellaneous nondurable goods, where employment shrank in May by 2,900 on month. But here again, a very good April increase first reported at 3,300 is now judged to have been 4,400, and thanks to recent robust hiring in this catch-all category, too, its employment levels are 8.12 percent higher than in February. 2020.

As always, the most detailed employment data for pandemic-related industries are one month behind those in the broader categories, and their April job creation overall looked somewhat better than that for domestic manufacturing as a whole.

Semiconductors are still too scarce nationally and globally, but the semiconductor and related devices sector grew employment by 900 on month in April – its biggest addition since last October’s 1,000. March’s initially reported 700 jobs gain was revised down to 400, and February’s upgraded hiring increase of 100 stayed unrevised. Consequently, payrolls in this industry are up 1.66 percent since just before the pandemic arrived in full force, and it must be kept in mind that even during the deep spring, 2020 economy-wide downturn, it actually boosted employment.

The news was worse in surgical appliances and supplies – a category containing personal protective equipment (think “facemasks”) and similar medical goods. April’s sequential jobs dip of 200 was the worst such performance since October’s 300 fall-off, but at least March’s initially reported 1,100 increase remained intact (as did February’s downwardly revised – frm 800 – “no change.” Employment in surgical appliances and supplies, however, is still 3.88 percent greater than in immediate pre-pandemic-y February, 2020.

In the very big pharmaceuticals and medicines industry, this year’s recent strong hiring continued in April, as the sector added 1,400 new workers sequentially – its biggest gains since last June’s 2,600. In addition, March’s initially reported increase of 900 was revised up to 1,200, and February’s slightly downgraded 1,000 rise remained unchanged. Not surprisingly, therefore, this sector’s workforce is up by 9.78 percent during the CCP Virus era.

Job creation was excellent as well in the medicines subsector containing vaccines. April’s 1,100 monthly headcount growth was the greatest since last December’s 2,000. March’s initially reported payroll rise of 400 was upgraded to 600, and February’s results stayed at a slightly downgraded 500. In all, vaccine manufacturing-related jobs has now increased by fully 24.47 percent since February, 2020.

Aircraft manufacturers added just only 200 employees on month in April, but March’s jobs gain was revised up from 1,100 to 1,200 (the best such result since last June’s 4,000), and February’s upwardly revised 600 advance remained unchanged. Aircraft employment is still off by 10.96 percent since the pandemic’s arrival in force.

Aircraft engines and engine parts makers were in a hiring mood in April, too. Their employment grew by 900 sequentially, March’s 500 increase was revised up to 600, and February’s unrevised monthly increase of 900 stayed unrevised. Payrolls in this sector have now climbed to within 11.56 percent of their level just before the CCP Virus hit.

As for the non-engine aircraft parts and equipment sector, it made continued modest employment progress in April, with the monthly headcount addition of 300 following unrevised gains of 700 in March and 200 in February. But these companies’ workforces are still 15.48 percent smaller than their immediate pre-pandemic totals.

The U.S. economy is clearly in a period of growth much slower than last year’s, and since there’s no shortage of actual and potential headwinds (e.g., the course of the Ukraine War, the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign, persistent lofty inflation, the likely absence of further fiscal stimulus), no one can reasonably rule out a recession that drags down manufacturing’s hiring with it. But until domestic industry’s job creation and production growth starts deteriorating dramatically and remains weak, today’s so-so employment figures look like a breather at worst – and not much of one at that.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: U.S. Manufacturing Job Creation Gains More Momentum

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aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, automotive, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Employment, Federal Reserve, furniture, inflation, Jobs, machinery, manufacturing, miscellaneous durable goods, non-farm payrolls, personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, plastics and rubber products, PPE, recession, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, supply chains, transportation equipment, Ukraine-Russia war, vaccines, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Today’s official April U.S. jobs report featured such a strong showing by U.S.-based manufacturers that, by one measure, they reclaimed title of America’s best job-creating sector during the CCP Virus era (and its aftermath?).

Domestic industry boosted its payrolls sequentially last month by 55,000 workers, its best such performance since July’s 62,000 gain. In addition, revisions were excellent. March’s initially reported 38,000 increase is now pegged at 43,000, and February’s upgraded 38,000 rise is now judged to have been 50,000.

As a result, manufacturing’s share of U.S. non-farm employment (the federal government’s definition of the American jobs universe), has improved from 8.38 percent in February, 2020 – the last full data month before the virus began roiling the national economy – to 8.41 percent as of last month.

And during this period, manufacturing’s share of America’s private sector jobs is up from 9.83 percent to 9.86 percent.

Domestic industry has recovered a slightly smaller share of the jobs it lost during the sharp pandemic-induced downturn of spring, 2020 (95.89 percent) than the private sector (97.62 percent). But it also shed fewer jobs proportionately than the rest of the private sector during that terrible March and April. (For the record, because of a drag created by public sector hiring, the share of all non-farm jobs regaine d now stands at 94.59 percent.

In all, U.S.-based manufacturing employment is now down a mere 0.44 percent from immediate pre-pandemic-y February, 2020.

April’s manufacturing jobs winners were broad-based, but the biggest among the major sectors tracked by the Labor Department were:

>transportation equipment, whose 13,700 employment improvement was its best such performance since last October’s 28,200. (Last month I erroneously reported that the sector’s best recent monthly performance was last August’s 19,000.) Unfortunately, March’s initially reported employment advance of 10,800 was revised down to 8,800, and February’s previously estimated 19,800 jobs plunge (the worst monthly performance since April, 2021’s automotive shutdown-produced nosedive of 48,100) is now judged to be 19,900. Bottom line: This sector’s employment levels are still 3.38 percent below those of that last full pre-pandemic data month of February, 2020;

>machinery, where 7,400 jobs were added on month – an especially encouraging result since its products are so widely used throughout the rest of manufacturing and the entire economy. Even better, March’s initially reported 1,700 employment increase was revised all the way up to 6,700, and February’s perfomance – which had been revised down from an 8,300 rise to one of 6,600, recovered a bit to 6,700. As a result, machinery employment is off just 1.55 percent from its February, 2020 levels;

>automotive, which boosted headcounts by 6,400 – its best monthly gain since last October’s 34,200 plant reopening-driven burst. But March’s initially reported 6,400 jobs rise was downgraded to 3,600, and even though February’s major job losses were revised for the better again, they’re still pegged at 14,000 – the worst since the 49,100 employees shed during the shutdowns last April. These gyrations have left the combined vehicles and parts workforce 0.78 pecent smaller than in February, 2020;

>plastics and rubber products, which upped employmment by 5,700 sequentially in April, the best such performance since last August’s 7,800. Job-wise, these sectors are now 3.38 percent larger than in February, 2020.

The only significant jobs losers in April were furniture and related products and miscellaneous durable goods. The former lost 1,100 positions in April, but employment has still inched up by 0.57 percent since pre-pandemic-y February, 2020. The latter – which includes much of the protective gear needed to fight and contain the CCP Virus – reduced employment by 1,400 sequentially last month. But this decrease was the first since last August’s 600 loss, and followed a strong 3,100 jobs gain in March. This catch-all category’s employment is now 1.54 percent higher than in February, 2020.

As always, the most detailed employment data for pandemic-related industries are one month behind those in the broader categories, and as with the rest of domestic industry for March, their employment picture showed improvement overall.

The semiconductor and related devices sector is still struggling to meet demand, but hiring continued its slow-but-steady pandemic-era increase in March with job gains of 700. February’s initially reported 100 employment loss now stands at a 100 employment gain, and January’s numbers stayed at plus-300 – the best monthly performance since last October’s 1,000. This sector now employs 1.34 percent more workers than in February, 2020 – impressive since during the sharp spring, 2020 economic downturn, it kept adding jobs.

The latest employment results were mixed for surgical appliances and supplies makers – a category within the aforementioned miscellaneous durable goods sector, and one in which personal protective equipment and similar medical goods abound. In March, the industry added 1,100 workers, but revisions completely wiped out February’s initially reported 800 jobs gain. The January hiring increase stayed at a downwardly revised 1,300. Even so, since just beforet the pandemic’s arrival in force in the United States, these companies have increased payrolls by 4.07 percent.

The very big pharmaceuticals and medicines industry continued to be a moderate employment winner in March. It hired an additional 900 workers on month, and though its February improvement was downgraded (from 1,300 to 1,000), the number was solid. Moreover, January’s hugely upgraded 1,100 employment rise stayed intact. Since February, 2020, this sector’s headcount is up fully 9.23 percent.

March jobs gains were more subdued in the medicines subsector containing vaccines, but they still totaled 400. February’s initially reported employment increase of 800 is estimated at just 500 now, and January’s identical increase stayed the same. But over time, this industry’s jobs growth has been impressive – 23.15 percent since the last pre-pandemic data month of February, 2020.

Good job gains continued in March in the aviation cluster as well. Aircraft manufacturers (including still-troubled industry giant Boeing) rose by 1,100 sequentially – the best monthly gain since last June’s 4,400. February’s increase was upgraded from 500 to 600, but January’s sequential job loss stayed unrevised at 800. This net increase brought aircraft employment to within 11.08 percent of its February, 2020 level.

The aircraft engines and engine parts industry followed February’s unrevised 900 hiring increase by adding 500 more workers in March. January’s results, however, stayed at a slightly downgraded 900 loss. And these companies’ still employ 12.65 percent fewer workers than in February, 2020.

The deep jobs depression in the non-engine aircraft parts and equipment sector remained deep in March, but a little less so. Jobs gains for the month totaled 700, February’s initially reported 200 increase was unrevised, and January’s way upwardly revised job rise was downgraded only from 1,500 to 1,400. But since just before the pandemic, the non-engine aircraft parts and equipment sector has still shrunk by 15.74 percent.

Having recently navigated its way skillfully through a once-in-a-century pandemic, a virtual shutdown of the entire U.S. economy, continuing supply chain disruption, multi-decade high inflation, a major war in Europe (so far), former export champ Boeing’s woes, and sluggish-at-best growth in much of the foreign markets it relies on heavily, it’s tempting to say that U.S-based manufacturing will have finally met its match if the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting campaign dramatically slows growth domestically — or worse.  But since the pandemic began, the next time the manufacturing pessimists are right will be the first.       

 

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Pre-Ukraine War, Anyway, U.S. Manufacturing Employment Regained Momentum

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aircraft, aircraft engines, aircraft parts, automotive, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, fabricated metals products, food products, Jobs, Labor Department, machinery, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, PPE, semiconductor shortage, semiconductors, surgical equipment, Ukraine-Russia war, vaccines, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

As strong as U.S.-based manufacturing’s jobs performance looked on the surface in February, a closer look at the numbers released by the Labor Department this morning reveals that it was even better. The big reason? The 36,000 jobs that domestic industry gained last month came despite an 18,000 falloff in the automotive sector, which remained troubled not only by a global semiconductor shortage that will clearly end one of these days, but by a Canadian truckers’ protest that closed a bridge that’s a key transit route for Canadian-made auto parts needed by U.S. auto plants.

Moreover, revisions of previous months’ data were excellent. January’s initially judged 13,000 sequential employment pickup is now pegged at 16,000 and December’s advance was increased from an already upwardly revised 32,000 to 41,000.

Manufacturers didn’t quite keep pace with the rest of the country’s non-farm businesses in February (the Labor Department’s definition of the American employers’ universe). But given the torrid rate of recent economy-wide net job creation, that performance is hardly shabby, and it’s held its own – literally – during the entire sharp recovery achieved by the economy since its April, 2020 pandemic low point.

Before the CCP Virus began seriously distorting the economy’s behavior (in February, 2020), manufacturing jobs accounted for 8.38 percent of total non-farm payrolls. Including the new revisions, this figure had hit 8.40 percent in January of this year, but the February report showed a dip back to 8.38 percent.

The private sector story has been remarkably similar. Manufacturing employment represented 9.83 percent of that sector’s total jobs in February, 2020. Including the new revisions, the share had risen to 9.86 percent in January of this year, but as of Februay, it had retreated back to 9.83 percent.

Put differently, the entire non-farm economy has now replaced 19.886 million (90.43 percent) of the 21.991 million jobs lost during the terrible months of March and April, 2020. The private sector has replaced fully 20.092 million (fully 95.60 percent) of the 21.016 million positions it shed that spring. Manufacturing has replaced 1.184 million (86.93 percent) of its 1.362 million employment drop. But industry’s share of total jobs has stayed stable because its jobs depression in 2020 was less severe than the entire economy’s or the larger private sector’s

February’s biggest manufacturing jobs winners among the major sectors tracked by the Labor Department were highly concentrated – and all were among January’s stellar performers. They were:

>Fabricated metals products added 10,500 jobs on month – though January’s previously reported 5,000 advance is now estimated at 3,700, and the industry’s employment is still 2.95 percent below its immediate pre-pandemic February, 2020 levels (versus 1.39 percent for all of manufacturing);

>Machinery, whose 8,300 increase is especially encouraging, because its products are used so widely throughout the entire economy. But it’s still 2.92 percent shy of its job level in February, 2020;

>and food products, whose payrolls climbed by 7,200, and whose January results were revised up from a 5,200 improvement to 5,800. This progress brought pushed food manufacturing employment levels to 1.01 percent above those in February, 2020.

Meanwhile, automotive was February’s only significant jobs loser. Its 18,000 monthly employment nosedive was its worst such performance since last April’s 49,100 plunge (also due to semiconductor woes). At least its previously reported 4,900 January sequential jobs drop has been revised up to a 3,500 loss. But automotive employment is still 2.55 percent below immediate pre-pandemic levels.

As always, the most detailed employment data for pandemic-related industries are one month behind those in the broader categories, and their January employment picture showed improvement overall.

Payrolls in the semiconductor and related devices segment increased by 200 on month in January, consistent with their very slow growth over the last five years – including during the pandemic era. Interestingly, its companies actually hired more on net during the very sharp CCP Virus-induced recession of 2020 (by 0.59 percent). Since February, 2020, its payrolls are up by 0.86 percent.

Employment increases stayed strong in January in the surgical appliances and supplies sector, which contains personal protective equipment and similar goods. This industry added 1,700 jobs on net, December’s monthly advance remained at 1,100, and November’s results stayed at an upgraded 3,100 increase. Consequently, the surgical appliances and supplies workforce is now 3.41 percent bigger than in pre-pandemicky February, 2020.

January pharmaceuticals and medicines employment dipped by 100 sequentially, however, and December’s 2,400 hiring jump was downgraded to just 900. November’s 700 jobs growth figure was unrevised. Even so, employment in this sector is 8.23 percent higher than just before the major initial CCP Virus hit to the economy.

As for the medicines subsector containing vaccines, the January figures and revisions seem to reveal some lost hiring steam. January monthly job growth was just 500 – the weakest since July’s 100 – and December’s excellent initially reported 2,400 rise is now judged to have been 2,000. November’s own 2,000 increase was unrevised, though, and job growth in this sector since February, 2020 is still a robust 22.23 percent.

January was a much better month than December for the aviation cluster – except oddly for aircaft. That sector, dominated by Boeing, saw employment shrink by 800 sequentially – is worst such performance since July’s 900 drop. Yet December’s originally estimated 600 employment decrease was upgraded to a decline of 400, and November’s results remained at a downgraded 500 job gain. After these latest fluctuations, aircraft industry employment fell to 11.78 percent less than in February, 2020.

Aircraft engines and engine parts makers, however, hired 1,000 workers on net in January – theit best performance since May, 2020’s 4,700, which came early during the strong late-spring recovery from the virus-induced recession. December’s initially reported jobs gain of 500 was revised up to 700, but November’s loss of 300 stayed unrevised. So although employment in these companies in January was 14.07 percent less than in February, 2020, it’s been closing the gap lately.

A notable employment rebound came in non-engine aircraft parts and equipment, where payrolls rose by 500 in January sinking by an unrevised 900 in December. But November’s results were downgraded from no change to a decrease of 100. And the sector payrolls are still down 17.30 percent since Februay, 2020.

I’m holding off on my usual prognosis for U.S. manufacturing employment because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its likely non-trivial economic fallout for the United States, and its probably greater repercussions for the rest of the world (to which domestic manufacturers sell a great deal). U.S.-based industry’s resilience throughout the pandemic has been extraodinary, but big power conflict could create a new and much more formidable set of challenges entirely.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: The Greatest Presidential Job Creator Ever?

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Biden, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CCP Virus, coronavirus, COVID 19, Donald Trump, Employment, Jobs, lockdowns, NFP, non-farm payrolls, reopening, Wuhan virus, {What's Left of) Our Economy

However unwittingly, President Biden rendered the nation a major public service on Friday with his remarks on his administration’s achievements in boosting American job creation. Specifically, he provided a good indication of how many ways and how dramatically economic data can be spun.

According to the President, “we have added 6.4 million new jobs since January of last year — in one year. And that’s one of the most — that’s the most jobs in any calendar year by any president in history.”

A look at the data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that Mr. Biden actually slightly understated calendar 2021 overall net new job creation. Non-farm payrolls (BLS’ definition of the American employment universe) increased by 6.448 million during this period.

Mr. Biden’s focus on the calendar year, however, means that he’s taking credit for January. Not only wasn’t he inaugurated until January 20, but each month’s BLS job increase numbers cover the period between the middles of each month. (See the “Technical Note” section of each month’s report.) So the January job creation he’s claiming as his own stopped days before he entered office.

If it’s assumed that the current administration’s impact on employment (and the rest of the economy) didn’t start until the President took the Oath of Office – on a monthly basis, in February – then the employment increase that’s taken place on his watch so far is 6.215 million. That’s nearly 200,000 less than he claimed.

There’s no question that the employment picture orders of magnitude better than that of the last calendar year of the Trump administration – when non-farm payrolls cratered by 9.416 million.

At the same time, that calendar year includes the depths of the steep economic downturn induced by the CCP Virus’ arrival in the United States. In March and April, American employment levels crashdove by a sickening 22.362 million. And as should be remembered, including by those who view the Trump response to the pandemic itself as disastrously bad, this employment calamity mainly stemmed not from Trump economic policy decisions that presumably were inferior to their Biden administration counterparts. They mainly stemmed from health-related economic and behavioral restrictions that the former President supported only belatedly and reluctantly.

In fact, once the economy began reopening (raggedly, to be sure), job creation skyrocketed. From April, 2020 through January. 2021 – bringing the story up to just about the end of Trump’s presidency – NFP rose 12.575 million. That’s twice as much in absolute terms in nine months as in Mr. Biden’s 11 months in office.

As implied, though, this rapid improvement wasn’t mainly Trump’s doing. Clearly, economic stimulus measures helped. But far more important was a reopening and highly uneven return to economic normality. Moreover, because of the federal government’s limited authority over issues such as whether businesses closed altogether, or operate during limited hours, or how their customers should behave, the reopening decisions were overwhelmingly taken at the state and local level.

But as known by RealityChek regulars, President Biden’s remarks ignore a more fundamental concern: The kinds of absolute increases touted by President Biden are far from the whole story when it comes to judging economic performance, and can profoundly mislead even factoring out the whopping distortions of the economy created by the CCP Virus. At least as important are relative increases (or decreases) – in this case, because the size of the American workforce keeps changing.

And when the Biden job creation record is presented in terms of percentage increase, it doesn’t look so extraordinary at all. The Washington Post‘s Andrew Van Dam put it perfectly yesterday:

“The 6.4 million jobs gained this year, while a record in absolute terms, represents only a 4.5 percent increase in the workforce. That’s smaller than the 5.0 percent growth seen in 1978, when a much smaller labor force added 4.3 million jobs. In fact, relative to the size of the workforce, it’s only the 11th best calendar year since record-keeping began in 1939.”

Biden’s boasts about the economy certainly aren’t the first issuing from the Oval Office. Indeed, they’re no more exaggerated than TrumpWorld’s repeated claims that, pre-virus, he “helped America build its strongest economy in history.” But they’re also a needed reminder that whoever’s in office – a Democrat or Republican, an establishmentarian or a disrupter – their economic pronouncements are bound to deserve some Pinocchios.