(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing’s Out of its (Short Term) Jobs and Wages Doldrums

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

American domestic manufacturing created 16,000 net new jobs in July on month, its best such performance since February’s 22,000. Coupled with a major (11,000) upward revision for June, the figures demonstrated that U.S. industry has for now emerged from a springtime slump. On an annual basis, manufacturing’s July 66,000 employment improvement was its strongest since February, 2016’s 69,000.

But since the current recovery began, private net job creation has topped manufacturing’s by a factor of nearly 2.5. The same story characterized pre-inflation manufacturing wages. In July, they improved sequentially faster than the private sector’s (0.53 percent to 0.34 percent) but lagged year-on-year (2.42 percent to 2.53 percent) and trailed the previous Julys’ 3.13 percent. And during the current recovery, the private sector’s current dollar wages have increased nearly 20 percent faster than manufacturing’s, although the gap has narrowed year-on-year. But despite its good last two months, manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment remained at a record low of 8.47 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (July) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>U.S. domestic manufacturing net new job creation and wage gains both accelerated sequentially in July, pulling the sector out of a sluggish spring on both fronts.

>Industry’s monthly July jobs gain of 16,000 was its best such performance by far since the 22,000 payrolls improvement in February. Moreover, June’s initially reported 1,000 employment increase is is now judged to have been more than ten times greater (12,000).

>Fiurther, the July figures showed that manufacturing payrolls swelled by 66,000 year-on-year in July – the best annual gains since February, 2016’s 69,000.

>Monthly pre-inflation manufacturing wages growth picked up notably as well in July, from an upwardly revised 0.19 percent in June to 0.53 percent. In May, manufacturing paychecks actually fell on a current dollar basis – by an upwardly revised 0.26 percent.

>Manufacturing’s June sequential pre-inflation wage gains equaled those of the overall private sector, and beat the private sector’s 0.34 percent performance in July.

>Over the longer term, however, manufacturing lagged the overall private sector in both respects, although the paycheck gap has been narrowing slightly recently.

>During the current economic recovery, which began in mid-2009, manufacturing employment is now up by 5.96 percent. Private sector jobs as a whole are up by 14.58 percent during this period.

>Since the late-2007 onset of the last recession, manufacturing’s performance is equally poor. From that time to the early 2010 troughs, manufacturing lost 2.293 million jobs and private sector payrolls shrank by 8.801 million.

>Since then, manufacturing has regained just 42.39 percent of those lost jobs (a total of 972,000). The private sector as a whole has boosted employment by 17 million.

>As a result, total private sector employment is now 7.08 percent higher than at the recession’s late-2007 onset, but manufacturing employment is still 9.61 percent lower.

>Therefore, it’s no surprise that manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment in July stayed stuck at its all-time low level of 8.47 percent.

>Wage trends reveal the same manufacturing relative weakness. Industry’s July annual current dollar wage gains of 2.42 percent were lower than the overall private sector’s 2.53 percent. They were also much lower than the 3.13 percent increase recorded for manufacturing during the previous Julys.

>Manufacturing wages before inflation have fared little better during the recovery. As of July, they were up by 15.99 percent since the economy resumed expanding in mid-2009. But overall private sector wage increased by 19.06 percent – 19.20 percent faster.

>Last July, though, the gap was bigger – 23.24 percent.

>Manufacturing generally performs even worse on an inflation-adjusted basis. The latest figures are for June, and show a sequential manufacturing gain of 0.18 percent versus a 0.28 percent read for the private sector overall.

>Year-on-year, real manufacturing wages have risen by only 0.55 percent. That’s both slower than the private sector’s 0.94 percent and manufacturing’s own 2.46 percent constant dollar rise between July, 2015 and July, 2016.

>During the entire recovery, overall private sector real wages are up 4.56 percent as of June – 2.87 times faster than the manufacturing real wage improvement (1.59 percent).

>As bad as that comparison looks, it’s actually narrower than the gap last year – when overall private sector wages had increased 3.48 times faster after inflation than manufacturing wages.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Job Creation is Stagnating Again

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, real wages, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

American domestic manufacturing created 1,000 net new jobs in June, but the figures underscored that the sector’s employment gains have nearly petered out recently. Including modest (3,000) downward revisions, industry’s employment has grown by only 8,000 since March. Largely as a result, manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm jobs hit a new record low – just under 8.47 percent.

Pre-inflation manufacturing wages ticked up sequentially in June (by 0.08 percent) and the pace of annual increases rose from May’s 1.92 percent to 2.08 percent. But these advances remained the lowest since October, 2015 (2.17 percent), and industry pay continued lagging that of the overall private sector, although the gap between their rates of increase narrowed over the past year – from 22.72 percent to 22.43 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (June) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>U.S. domestic manufacturing grew by 1,000 on net in June, but this modest number not only contrasted with the solid employment performance registered by the economy as a whole. It also revealed that industry’s net job creation has nearly ground to a halt.

>Including total negative revisions for April and May of 3,000, domestic manufacturers have increased payrolls by only 8,000 since March.

>Largely as a result, manufacturing’s share of total nonfarm employment sank in June to just under 8.47 percent – a new all-time low.

>After falling on month at an upwardly revised 0.34 percent in May, nominal manufacturing wages edged up sequentially in June by 0.08 percent. Yet evidence persisted of a wage lag suffered by manufacturing workers.

>The current dollar monthly wage gain for private sector workers overall was 0.15 percent – nearly twice as great as that for their manufacturing counterparts.

>The same situation held for annual wage trends. Year-on-year, manufacturing pre-inflation wages rose only 2.08 percent in June. The private sector improvement was 2.46 percent.

>Moreover, the June yearly manufacturing wage advance, along with May’s upwardly revised 1.92 percent rise, were the lowest since October, 2015’s 2.17 percent.

>Between the previous Junes, pre-inflation manufacturing wages increased by 3.47 percent.

>On a pre-inflation basis, manufacturing’s wage increases during the current economic recovery still trail those of the private sector, although the gap has narrowed slightly over the last year.

>As of June, 2016, private sector pre-inflation wages were up by 15.72 percent during the expansion (which began in mid-2009) and manufacturing wages were up 12.81 percent. Therefore, private sector wages had risen by 22.72 percent faster than manufacturing wages.

>As of this June, private sector pre-inflation wages were up by 18.56 percent during the recovery, while manufacturing pay was up by 15.16 percent. Therefore, the gap between the rates of increase had shrunk to 22.43 percent.

>Factoring in inflation darkens manufacturing’s wage picture. The latest data are from May, but they show that that month, real manufacturing wages fell sequentially by 0.28 percent while they rose by that amount for the entire private sector.

>Year-on-year in May, the 0.56 percent increase in inflation-adjusted private sector wages was unimpressive. But it beat manufacturing’s performance – which flat-lined. Between May, 2015 and May, 2016, after-inflation manufacturing wages increased by 2.45 percent.

>During the entire recovery, overall private sector real wages are up 4.27 percent. For manufacturing? Less than half that improvement: 1.49 percent.

>Manufacturing’s June year-on-year jobs increase of 49,000 greatly exceeded the previous Junes’ annual increase of 9,000, underscoring the sector’s recent exit from an employment recession.

>Nonetheless, over the longer term, manufacturing has continued to lag the private sector overall on the payroll front.

>During the current economic recovery, which began in mid-2009, manufacturing employment has grown by only 5.71 percent. For the private sector as a whole during the expansion, it’s up by 14.39 percent.

>Since the late-2007 onset of the last recession, manufacturing’s performance is equally poor. From that time to the early 2010 troughs, manufacturing lost 2.293 million jobs and private sector payrolls shrank by 8.801 million.

>Since then, manufacturing has regained just 41.12 percent of those lost jobs (a total of 943,000). The private sector as a whole has boosted employment by 16.794 million.

>As a result, total private sector employment is now 6.91 percent higher than at the recession’s late-2007 onset, but manufacturing employment is still 9.82 percent lower.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Manufacturing Exits Jobs Recession; Payrolls Resilient but Wages Dreary

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inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Although U.S. monthly manufacturing jobs growth slowed in March to 11,000 from a solid February figure that was revised slightly downward (to 26,000), net positive revisions helped pull industry out of its latest employment recession. Manufacturing payrolls have now increased on net (by 5,000) since January, 2016. March’s year-on-year manufacturing jobs improvement (37,000) was also the best such figure since last February’s 69,000. Manufacturing’s March monthly employment slowdown mirrored that of the rest of the economy, but its revisions were much better. As a result, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment inched up from its latest all-time low in February (8.49 percent) to 8.50 percent.

Less impressive was manufacturing’s March sequential wage growth (0.04 percent), which trailed the overall private sector improvement (0.19 percent) for the third straight month. These results also pushed manufacturing’s yearly current dollar wage growth (2.53 percent) below that of the private sector (2.67 percent) for the first time since last February (2.32 percent vs 2.38 percent). Consequently, the wage-increase gap between the overall private sector and the manufacturing sector during the recovery widened from 1.23:1 to 1.24:1. Manufacturing’s recovery-era job laggard status remained intact, too, in March, as its payrolls have increased by only 5.68 percent since mid-2009, versus the 13.92 percent rise for the overall private sector.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (March) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>The job growth slowdown that struck the entire U.S. economy in March undercut manufacturing’s performance, too. But the latest 11,000 sequential gain, coupled with February’s solid but downwardly revised 26,000 and positive revisions helped the sector emerge from its latest employment recession.

>American manufacturing payrolls are now 5,000 higher than in January, 2016.

>The new figures also pushed March’s year-on-year manufacturing jobs gains to 37,000 – the best such improvement since last February’s 69,000. Even better, the new March annual rise also beat that between the previous Marches (35,000).

>Although the February manufacturing jobs gain was revised down slightly from 28,000, January’s figure rise was upgraded from 11,000 to 12,000, and December’s increase is now judged to be 18,000, not 11,000.

>Manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment came in at a meager 8.50 percent in March. But that level at least beat February’s 8.49 percent – which represented an all-time low.

>Manufacturing wages performed less impressively in March than manufacturing employment. On a monthly basis, the second straight 0.04 rise in pre-inflation hourly pay in the sector trailed the overall private sector rise (0.19 percent) for the third straight month.

>More troubling, manufacturing’s March year-on-year pre-inflation wage growth (2.53 percent) trailed the overall private sector result (2.67 percent) for the first time since last February (when annual current dollar manufacturing wages increased by 2.32 percent and overall private sector wages advanced by 2.38 percent.

>The new manufacturing increase did beat March 2015-16’s 2.47 percent.

>Yet thanks to manufacturing’s recent relative wage weakness, it’s an even greater recovery-era laggard measured by its rate of wage increases than in February. As of that month, current dollar private sector wages had risen by 23 percent faster than hourly manufacturing pay since the expansion’s June, 2009 onset.

>In March, the gap had grown to 24 percent. Manufacturing wages had risen by 14.55 percent during that period, whereas private sector wages in toto were up 18.07 percent.

>Moreover, the latest available (February) data show that manufacturing’s wage lag is even worse – and also widening – in inflation-adjusted terms.

>February real manufacturing wages dipped month-on-month by 0.09 percent, while after-inflation private sector pay rose by 0.09 percent.

>Including these results, after-inflation manufacturing wages have risen by only 0.56 percent during the near-decade-long recovery. Real overall private sector wages have advanced by 3.49 percent. These results brought the private sector manufacturing-pr

>Adjusting for inflation, manufacturing’s wage performance looks much worse. The latest figures only cover January, but they show that real hourly pay in the sector is up only 0.65 percent since the recovery began in mid-2009 – more than seven years ago.

>As a result, the March real wage growth gap between the two 6.32:1 – considerably higher than February’s 5.22:1.

>The recovery-era story of manufacturing as a major job-creation laggard remained intact in March, too.

>Since America’s current expansion began, industry’s payrolls are up by a mere 5.68 percent. Employment in the private sector as a whole has risen by 13.92 percent during this period.

>The same trends can be seen since the last recession began, at the end of 2007. From that employment peak to the early 2010 troughs, manufacturing lost 2.293 million jobs and private sector payrolls shrank by 8.801 million.

>Since then, manufacturing has regained only 40.87 percent of those lost jobs (a total of 939,000). the private sector as a whole, by has boosted employment by 16.283 million.

>This means that total private sector employment is now 6.47 percent higher than at the recession’s late-2007 onset, but manufacturing employment is still 9.85 percent lower.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite Strength in February, Manufacturing’s Jobs Recession Continued

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BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

February’s preliminary U.S. manufacturing jobs figures showed that the sector boosted payrolls by 28,000 – its best performance since the same total for January, 2016, but that its jobs recession continued, with employment down on net since that month. Manufacturing wage growth, moreover, showed some weakness, as average hourly pay improved by just 0.04 percent on month (lagging the overall private sector) and the yearly improvement of 2.89 percent was mediocre by the last few months’ standards.

The positive manufacturing jobs revisions for December and January brightened former President Obama’s record for employment creation in the sector, but the increase still fell short of his stated second term goal of creating one million new positions in industry by 625,000.

Despite the good February monthly advance – plus the sector’s first annual employment increase (7,000) since last July – manufacturing jobs as a share of the non-farm total hit a new record low of 8.49 percent. Nor did the February results change manufacturing’s status as an American employment and wages laggard. Since the mid-2009 onset of the current economic recovery, industry employment is up only 5.59 percent, versus the 11.28 percent for the nation as a whole, and pre-inflation wages have risen by 14.51 percent versus the 17.84 percent rise for the entire private sector.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (February) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>The first full (though preliminary) monthly tally of President Trump’s manufacturing job creation record showed that even a strong February – which saw industry’s payrolls grow by 28,000 on net – wasn’t enough to pull the sector out of its latest jobs recession.

>Although the February results were manufacturing’s best since January, 2016’s (which were identical), the sector’s employment is still below that month’s total by 5,000 on net.

>In addition, manufacturing wages displayed signs of weakness in February. Their pre-inflation sequential increase of 0.04 percent trailed that of the overall private sector (0.23 percent) for the second straight month.

>Year-on-year, however, manufacturing’s wage performance looks better. Hourly pay rose by 2.89 percent versus the 2.80 percent figure for the private sector. Manufacturing held the edge in January, too, but the gap was wider (2.89 percent versus 2.60 percent).

>The new Labor Department release also showed that former President Obama’s record as a manufacturing jobs creator was somewhat better than previously reported. Net new manufacturing jobs still rose much less (a total of 375,000) than the one million goal he set for his second term. But positive revisions for January and February boosted manufacturing positions by 13,000 during those years.

>The last three months’ totals also did nothing to halt the historic slide in manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment. In February, this figure hit a new record low of 8.49 percent.

>On the brighter side, the February yearly manufacturing jobs increase of 7,000 was the first such advance since the 7,000 annual growth last July.  Nonetheless, it compared poorly with the 69,000 year-on-year gain reported for the previous Februarys.  

>Even so, manufacturing remains a jobs and wages laggard during the current economic recovery. Since the economy returned to expansion mode in June, 2009, industry employment is up by only 5.59 percent – less than half the 11.28 percent advance recorded by the private sector as a whole.

>Since its 2010 employment bottom, manufacturing has now regained 929,000 (40.51 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 16.217 million.

>Moreover, whereas total private sector employment is now 6.41 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, in late 2007, manufacturing employment is still 9.92 percent lower.

>On the wage front, pre-inflation manufacturing pay has risen by 14.51 percent during this recovery – again slower than the 17.84 percent for the entire private sector.

>Adjusting for inflation, manufacturing’s wage performance looks much worse. The latest figures only cover January, but they show that real hourly pay in the sector is up only 0.65 percent since the recovery began in mid-2009 – more than seven years ago. Real wages in the private sector overall are up 3.39 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite Strong December, Manufacturing Jobs Recession Continues & Sector Suffers Worst Year Since 2009

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inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

In December, American domestic manufacturing employment enjoyed its best monthly increase (17,000) since January (18,000). But these gains were not enough to pull the sector out of its latest jobs recession, as employment is down on net by 24,000 since December, 2014. Just as disturbing, the sector in 2016 suffered its first full calendar-year of job loss (45,000) since recession-plagued 2009 (1.375 million).

Manufacturing’s pre-inflation wage gains rebounded in December (by 0.50 percent) from November’s 0.45 percent monthly decline, and also outpaced the private sector year-on-year – by 3.37 percent to 2.93 percent. But in both current-dollar and price-adjusted terms, industry remains a laggard during the current economic recovery. Manufacturing employment as a share of total non-farm employment also remained at its latest all-time low – just under 8.45 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (December) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>American domestic manufacturing gained 17,000 jobs on a monthly basis in December – its best such performance since January’s 18,000 improvement. But the gains weren’t big enough to end the sector’s two-year long jobs recession.

>Since December, 2014, U.S. manufacturing employment is down on net by 24,000 – its longest slump since the Great Recession.

>Moreover, the December data (which are still preliminary) show that in 2016, American manufacturing lost 45,000 jobs on net. That’s its first full calendar-year of net employment decline since 2009 — when the sector’s payrolls cratered by 1.375 million even as the recession was coming to an end.

> In 2015, manufacturing gained 26,000 jobs. 

>Better news came on the wage front. Pre-inflation hourly pay in manufacturing rose by 0.50 percent on month – better than the 0.39 percent improvement for the private sector as a whole.

>Manufacturing wage increases also topped those in the private sector on an annual basis – by a 3.37 percent to 2.93 percent margin.

>In real terms, however, the story for manufacturing is much more mixed.

>The latest Labor Department figures are from November, and show that manufacturing’s month-on-month performance (real wages fell by 0.64 percent) was much worse than the private sector’s (down 0.28 percent).

>Year-on-year, however, manufacturing’s real wage increase in November (1.12 percent) beat the overall private sector’s (0.85 percent).

>Nevertheless, since the recovery began in mid-2009 – more than seven years ago – inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages have risen only 1.03 percent. Real private sector wages have increased considerably faster – by 3.69 percent.

>In pre-inflation terms, moreover, manufacturing wage gains also trail those of the private sector during the recovery – 14.55 percent to 17.43 percent.

>The net new jobs created in December still left manufacturing’s share of non-farm American jobs (the Labor Department’s definition of the U.S. employment universe) at just under 8.45 percent. That’s virtually the same proportion as in November, and another record low.

>The latest revisions to the manufacturing jobs figures netted out to zero. November’ originally reported 4,000 job loss was revised to a (still preliminary) 7,000 decrease. But October’s 5,000 decrease is now judged to have been just 4,000 in the final (for now) tally, and September’s 8,000 employment decline was upgraded to 6,000.

>Since its 2010 employment bottom, manufacturing has regained 822,000 (35.85 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 15.823 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 6.07 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.70 percent lower.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Wages Now Surging Amid Lengthening Manufacturing Jobs Recession

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, Labor Department, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

American domestic manufacturing extended its jobs recession in April, with the 4,000 sequential net increase not nearly big enough to prevent a net employment decline that now stretches back to January, 2015. April’s performance represented the sector’s first monthly improvement since January.

Yet even though industry has lost 14,000 net jobs over the last 15 months, the sector’s wages jumped by 0.70 percent in April over March’s upwardly revised level and by 3.02 percent year on year. The former increase was the biggest since recessionary November, 2008 and the latter the biggest since October, 2009 – when employment was still falling. At the same time, manufacturing jobs as a share of total non-farm jobs hit a new all-time low in April (8.54 percent), and revisions of prior months’ poor sequential job creation figures were only 2,000 to the upside.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (April) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>American domestic manufacturing increased its employment levels by 4,000 on net in April – its first monthly increase in two months. But the figures still mean that the sector’s jobs recession extended into its fifteenth month – its longest since the Great Recession – with employment down on net since January, 2015 (by 14,000 jobs).

>Yet the April figures also show the biggest monthly and yearly manufacturing wage increases since the Great Recession and its immediate aftermath.

>On month, April current-dollar manufacturing wages rose by 0.70 percent – the strongest such performance since November, 2008 (0.71 percent), when the economy was still slumping.

>The year-on-year April manufacturing wage increase of 3.02 percent was the biggest annual wage rise since October 2009 (3.03 percent) – when the economy was only four months into its current recovery, and when manufacturing employment was still falling on net.

>During those recessionary and early recovery days, anecdotal evidence suggested that manufacturing companies were reducing payrolls by laying off their least experienced, and lowest paid workers – thus resulting in statistical wage increases. Similar moves could explain the new disparity between employment and compensation trends.

>According to the April figures, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment (the Labor Department’s U.S. employment universe) hit its latest new record low – 8.54 percent. The previous new record – 8.55 percent – was set in March.

>This morning’s revisions to the March and February manufacturing job changes were positive, but minimal. March’s 29,000 monthly loss – the worst since the 34,000 decrease in December, 2009 – remained unchanged, but February’s previously reported 18,000 payroll reductions were revised upward to 16,000.

>April’s manufacturing job results also produced the second straight month of year-on-year employment contraction. Since April, 2015, the sector’s payrolls have shrunk by a net total of 19,000. March’s annual manufacturing job losses were revised from 28,000 to 25,000, but February’s previously reported 5,000 yearly job shrinkage was revised up to growth of 7,000.

>Between April, 2014 and April, 2015, manufacturing gained 177,000 jobs and the comparable March improvement was 193,000.

>Since manufacturing hit its 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 844,000 (36.81 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by a 14.581 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now five percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.54 percent lower.

>The manufacturing wage figures in the new jobs report also compared favorably with the data from the private sector overall. April’s 0.70 percent monthly rise in manufacturing wages more than doubled the 0.31 percent improvement for private sector as a whole.

>Manufacturing’s 3.02 percent year-on-year April wage rise also handily beat the private sector’s 2.49 percent – itself a strong gain.

>Manufacturing wages are also showing impressive momentum. The April annual manufacturing wage increase was much higher than March’s 2.47 percent, which itself was upwardly revised. That March rise, in turn, beat February’s 2.44 percent. January’s year-on-year wage performance was better, however – 2.52 percent.

>Longer term, manufacturing’s wage-laggard status remained intact, but the gap with the private sector has been narrowing. Since the current economic recovery began, in mid-2009, its pre-inflation wages are up less (12.51 percent) than overall private sector wages (15.31 percent).

>Examining manufacturing’s inflation-adjusted wages reveals similar trends. The latest Labor Department figures are from March and show that its monthly increase in manufacturing wages was stronger (0.28 percent) than that of the private sector overall (0.19 percent).

>Year-on-year, March real manufacturing wages were up 1.60 percent, versus 1.52 percent for the private sector.

>Yet since the recovery began in mid-2009 – nearly seven years ago – inflation-adjusted manufacturing wages have risen only 0.84 percent. Real private sector wages have increased four times faster – by 3.78 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Worst Monthly Manufacturing Job Losses in Six-Plus Years Lengthen Industry’s Employment Recession

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Employment, Jobs, jobs report, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

In March, manufacturing suffered its worst monthly jobs losses (29,000) since December, 2009 (34,000). In tandem with negative revisions, these figures sank the sector into an employment recession that’s now lasted 16 months – its longest such stretch since the recession. Manufacturing also experienced its first yearly jobs decrease since September, 2010, and its share of total non-farm employment fell to another historic low – 8.55 percent.

Manufacturing’s February and January jobs revisions were both downgrades, but the sector’s pre-inflation wages rose sequentially for the third straight month (due in part to upward revisions). Its year-on-year gains (2.35 percent), moreover, topped those of the overall private sector (2.25 percent).

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (March) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>A 29,000 monthly jobs loss in March – the worst since December, 2009’s 34,000 early in the current economic recovery – extended manufacturing’s employment recession to 16 months. The span of cumulative job loss stretching back to December, 2014 is the sector’s longest since the previous national economic downturn.

>The March decrease coupled with negative revisions also produced manufacturing’s first year-on-year employment shrinkages since September, 2010 (-28,000). A monthly February downgrade resulted in that month’s employment shrinking annually by 5,000, and March’s preliminary figure was -27,000.

>Between March, 2014 and March, 2015, manufacturing gained 193,000 net jobs.

>All these developments combined to push industry’s share of total non-farm employment as a share of total non-farm jobs down to another low since records have been kept – 8.55 percent.

>The new data changed February’s 16,000 job loss to 18,000, and January’s already downwardly revised 23,000 gain to 18,000. December’s downwardly revised 6,000 monthly gain remained unchanged.

>Since manufacturing hit its 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 838,000 (36.54 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by a 14.435 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 4.87 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.58 percent lower.

>The manufacturing wage figures in the new jobs report were better than the employment figures. Before adjusting for inflation, manufacturing wages rose 0.27 percent in March over February levels, and the February sequential change was revised from a 0.08 percent decline to a 0.08 percent gain. January’s 0.35 percent gain remained unchanged.

>The March manufacturing monthly wage gain only slightly trailed the 0.28 percent improvement for the private sector as a whole.

>Manufacturing’s yearly March wage increase of 2.35 percent actually exceeded that for the overall private sector (2.25 percent). It was also significantly higher than the 1.50 percent advance between the previous Marches.

>Yet the March manufacturing wage increase was smaller than February’s upwardly revised 2.40 percent, and the lowest since November’s 2.33 percent.

>Longer term, manufacturing’s wage-laggard status remained intact.. Since the current economic recovery began, in mid-2009, its pre-inflation wages are up less (11.60 percent) than overall private sector wages (14.86 percent).

>Over the long run, manufacturing’s wages have under-performed after adjusting for inflation as well. The latest Labor Department figures are from February, and actually showed that in real terms, manufacturing wages rose sequentially by 0.09 percent from January levels, whereas overall private sector wages flat-lined..

>Year-on-year, though, manufacturing’s 1.22 percent real wage increase slightly trailed the private sector’s 1.23 percent.

>And since the recovery began in mid-2009, real manufacturing wages are up only 0.37 percent, whereas inflation-adjusted pay in the private sector is up 3.39 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Despite December Gains, Manufacturing is Still in a Jobs Recession

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Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Manufacturing’s job-creation performance reversed course in December, with the 8,000 employment gain its best monthly figure since July’s 9,000, and upward revisions for November and October. But these advances were not strong enough to lift the sector out of a technical jobs recession, as employment is still 2,000 below May levels. Moreover, manufacturing’s December 30,000 year-on-year jobs increase was its weakest since July, 2013’s 22,000.

Largely as a result, manufacturing’s share of total non-farm employment hit another new record low – 8.61 percent. Wages, moreover, fell on month for the first time in six months and their improvement – along with that of the sector’s employment – remains a major laggard during the current economic recovery.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (December) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>December brought some much-needed good news on the manufacturing jobs front, as the sector enjoyed its best job-creation month (8,000) since July’s 11,000. Revisions were positive as well, with November’s initially reported 1,000 decline now judged to be a 2,000 increase, and October’s 1,000 improvement upgraded again to 3,000.

>Nonetheless, these increases were not strong enough to lift manufacturing out of a technical jobs recession. Its employment levels are still down cumulatively by 2,000 over the last seven months.

>Manufacturing’s 30,000 year-on-year December boost in employment, moreover, was the weakest since July, 2013’s 22,000. In fact, between December, 2013 and December, 2014, manufacturing employment rose by 215,000.

>Largely as a result, manufacturing’s total December employment of 12.331 million hit another all-time low as a share of total non-farm employment – 8.61 percent. When manufacturing hit its last employment nadir, in February and March, 2010, its share of total non-farm employment was 10.69 percent and 10.67 percent, respectively.

>Since manufacturing hit its 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 878,000 (38.29 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 14.069 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 4.54 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.29 percent lower.

>Manufacturing remained a major wage laggard during the current economic recovery as well in December. During that month alone, its slight sequential pre-inflation wage decline (0.04 percent) equaled that of the overall private sector. But its year-on-year wage improvement of 2.49 percent – its best since March, 2014’s 2.53 percent – still trailed the private sector’s 2.52 percent.

>Moreover, by September, that good March, 2014 yearly gain had been cut nearly in half – to 1.35 percent. It’s an open question whether the latest wage increases will last longer.

>Longer term, manufacturing’s wage-laggard status is even clearer. Since the current economic recovery began, in mid-2009, its pre-inflation wages are up less (10.73 percent) than overall private sector wages (13.90 percent).

>Manufacturing’s wage performance has lagged after adjusting for inflation as well. The latest Labor Department figures are from November, and showed that in real terms, manufacturing wages were unchanged from October levels. Real private sector wages in November only inched up on month – by 0.09 percent. But they outperformed manufacturing.

>Year-on-year, November real wages were up by 1.61 percent for manufacturing, and by 1.83 percent for the private sector.

>And since the recovery began in mid-2009, real manufacturing wages are down 0.19 percent, whereas inflation-adjusted pay in the private sector is up 2.71 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: November Jobs Drop Prolongs Manufacturing Employment Recession

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Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, inflation-adjusted wages, Jobs, manufacturing, non-farm payrolls, recession, recovery, wages, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Manufacturing’s job-creation performance in November continued contrasting strikingly with that of the overall U.S. economy; in fact, even as non-farm employment gains have continued to accelerate over the last three months, the manufacturing jobs picture has stagnated. Thanks to the sector’s third sequential jobs decrease in the last four months, it has lost employment on net since January, with the 10-month cumulative decline qualifying technically as a recession.

In addition, manufacturing’s share of total employment has plunged to a record low 8.62 percent and its year-on-year gain of 36,000 net new positions was the worst such figure since July, 2013’s 22,000. November manufacturing wages under-performed, too, with their 0.08 percent monthly gain half of the overall private sector’s, and the 2.08 percent year-on-year improvement also trailing the private sector’s 2.31 percent.

Here’s my analysis of the latest monthly (November) manufacturing figures contained in this morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

>Even though U.S. non-farm jobs grew significantly on month in November and revisions were strong, manufacturing lost 1,000 net jobs compared with October’s employment levels.  It thereby prolonged its first technical jobs recession since the sector hit its last employment bottom in early 2010. Manufacturing employment has declined on net since January.

>This monthly manufacturing jobs decrease is the third in the last four months. Revisions, moreover, were only mildly positive. October’s unchanged job figure for the sector is now judged to have been a 1,000 gain, and September’s 9,000 employment decline was revised up to an 8,000 decrease.

>Total manufacturing employment of 12.318 million in November means that industry now accounts for 8.62 percent of all non-farm jobs – a new record low. When manufacturing hit its last employment nadir, in February and March, 2010, its share of total non-farm employment was 10.69 percent and 10.67 percent, respectively.

>Manufacturing’s November year-on-year employment gains were lackluster as well. The 36,000 annual increase was the lowest such total since July, 2013’s 22,000. Between November, 2013 and November, 2014, manufacturing employment rose by 210.000.

>Since manufacturing hit its 2010 employment bottom, the sector has regained 865,000 (37.72 percent) of the 2.293 million jobs it lost during the recession and its aftermath. By contrast, the private sector overall lost 8.801 million jobs from the recession’s December, 2007 onset through its February, 2010 absolute employment low. Since then, it has increased net employment by 13.742 million.

>In fact, whereas total private sector employment is now 4.26 percent higher than at the recession’s beginning, manufacturing employment is still 10.39 percent lower.

>Manufacturing remained a major recovery era wage laggard as well in November. Pre-inflation wages rose on month by 0.08 percent. But in the private sector, the improvement was twice as great – 0.16 percent. Moreover, manufacturing’s latest monthly wage hike also trailed October’s 0.16 percent, though this gain was revised up from 0.08 percent.

>Year-on-year, current dollar manufacturing wages increased by 2.08 percent – also less than the 2.31 percent figure for the private sector. The increase was much better than manufacturing’s previous November-November rise of 1.59 percent, but slightly lower than October’s upwardly revised 2.13 percent yearly advance.

>Longer term, manufacturing’s remained a national wage laggard, too. Since the current economic recovery began, its pre-inflation wages are up less (10.69 percent) than overall private sector wages (13.94 percent).

>Manufacturing’s wage performance has lagged after adjusting for inflation as well. The latest Labor Department figures are from October, and showed that in real terms, manufacturing wages fell on month for the first time since June – by 0.09 percent. Real private sector wages in October managed a 0.19 percent sequential increase.

>Year-on-year, October real wages were up by 1.91 percent for manufacturing, and by 2.42 percent for the private sector.

>And since the recovery began in mid-2009, real manufacturing wages are down 0.28 percent, whereas inflation-adjusted pay in the private sector is up 2.62 percent.

(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Evidence that Manufacturing Job Gains Have Been Overstated

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Business Employment Dynamics, Great Recession, Jobs, Labor Department, manufacturing, manufacturing renaissance, non-farm payrolls, recovery, {What's Left of) Our Economy

Last week, I reported on a set of U.S. government jobs statistics that were new to me, and that painted a decidedly bearish picture of the American employment scene and indeed of the entire economy’s chances of avoiding a recession in the near future. Since then, I’ve learned two other important facts about this data series, which is called the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) series.

First, although it comes out quarterly, and with a two-three-quarter lag, it’s based on a sample more than ten times bigger than that used by the Labor Department’s main jobs statistics – the non-farm payrolls (NFP) numbers that come out in the form of breathlessly followed monthly reports. Second, according to the BED, manufacturing’s jobs gains during the current recovery have been even weaker than described by the NFP numbers. (So, by the way, is overall job creation, at least per the latest first quarter, 2015 BED figures.)

The ongoing recovery began in mid-2009, so for convenience’s sake, let’s look at the annual data from 2010 on. According to the NFP figures, on a December-to-December basis, from 2010 through the end of last year, domestic manufacturers added a net of 706,000 jobs. If you go January-to-January, the number is just 642,000. But both figures are higher than the comparable BED total of 628,000.

For the first quarter of 2015, moreover, the NFP numbers tell us that domestic manufacturers generated 26,000 net new jobs on a December-to-March basis, and 9,000 on a January-to-April basis. But the BED data reports that they generated no net new jobs at all during this period.

At least as interesting, according to the BED figures, gross manufacturing job gains of 385,000 in the first quarter of this year represented the lowest quarter total since the second quarter of 2009 – when the Great Recession ended and the sector on net was still hemorrhaging jobs. But the 385,000 job loss figure was pretty standard for the recovery once its early days of strong manufacturing snap-back from an historic recessionary dive had passed.

In theory, subsequent BED reports will reverse the pattern so far and reveal manufacturing employment figures more robust than those in the NFP reports. But if they don’t, it’s clear that all those claims of an historic American manufacturing renaissance will look farther off the mark than ever.